Mid-air collisions too rare to worry about!

[rsiano]

Mid-Air Collisions Are Too Rare to Worry About or It is a Big Sky!

Alfred E. Neumann What Me Worry?

How often do mid-air collisions occur? I went to the Nall Report on the AOPA's web site to see the most recent General Aviation statistics available for 2007. The Nall Report on General Aviation accident statistics only covers fixed-wing general aviation aircraft weighing 12,500 pounds or less. It says there were only 10 in all of 2007!

Surprisingly these 10 mid-air collisions involving 20 different aircraft with 21 pilots and passengers resulted in only 4 deaths. Two of the mid-air collisions were by four aircraft involved in formation flight.

The fact mid-air collisions may be survivable is rarely written or talked about. In 2007, there were a total of 17 survivors from six different mid-airs involving 12 aircraft!

My flight career took of in January of 1961 when I first soloed a Piper PA-12 Super Cruiser as a member of the Kent State University Flying Club. I began to fly for Trans World Airlines in 1964. First as a co-pilot on the Lockheed Constellation and finally as a Boeing 747 captain. Along the way I accumulated a lot of flight time over the next 50 years.

In that 50 year period of time, I never experienced a close call from a mid-air collision. Why?

The continental United States is comprised of 3 million square miles. If the airspace to a level of 10 miles is available to be used by all aircraft the available amount of airspace is 30 million cubic miles. This is a heck of a lot of airspace or another way of saying it is to say: "It is a big sky!"

Now how many aircraft are using the big sky at the same time? Today, it is possible to obtain the answer from a web site that counts aircraft in the air called FlightAware.com. I just went to the web site and right now (Sunday, May 22, 2010 at 7:30 PM there are 3,672 airborne aircraft including 205 which are operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR).

The highest number of aircraft that are in the air at the same time counted by FlightAware is 5,650.

Assuming the aircraft were distributed in only half the available airspace or 15 million cubic miles it would mean each aircraft has approximately 3,000 cubic miles or a space 20 miles long, 20 miles wide and 7 miles high.

This is the primary reason for the lack of mid-air collisions. The Big Sky!

What role does Air Traffic Control play in mid-air collision prevention?

Another little talked about and written about is the possibility that it might play a negative role meaning ATC procedures may actually contribute to the mid-air collision issue.


ATC will normally assign aircraft to fly along an established airway such as Victor 210 separating us by altitude, lateral and longitudinal separations and watched over by radar. If either an air traffic controller or a pilot makes a mistake in the altitude flown or assigned, a mid-air collision is much more likely to happen due to the traffic being compacted by the present system.

In the real world, it means they are actually packing us closer together than if random flight paths were being flown by each aircraft. Normal vertical separation between Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) aircraft is just 1,000 feet. The normal vertical separation between IFR traffic and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) traffic is just 500 feet.

As a result of being aware of these facts, I will admit to not ever being overly concerned about mid-air collisions while I am flying my airplane.

What level of mid-air collision concern to you experience while flying your plane?


By the way, there is a matter of certainty about a comet hitting the earth at some point in the future and wiping out all life forms.
Do you worry much about it happening?


"What me worry?"

[protectthehornet]

but how many times have things gotten a little close?

I've asked myself that. flying since 1975. 737 captain for a US major now, but came up the hard way.

I can think of 4 times that things got close and not just a little bit close...but close enough to have nightmares about years later. close enough to suck in air through your teeth.

Providence or big sky?

well...keep your eyes open, your TCAS on, your transponder on, your lights on. listen and get the picture from ATC radio calls.

Challenge ATC when you hear something that doesn't make sense, like:

you are cleared to land on 9Right...United Heavy 623, you are cleared for takeoff on 27 Left.

And injun country, is still injun country.

[boofhead]

I rarely say this, but you are crazy.

I suspect you have come close on more than a few occasions and simply did not see the other airplane. I have personally had a couple of dozen real close calls (I saw the individual fires inside the burner can one time and got less than 30 feet away from a Speedbird with 400 passengers one night over Kabul (ATC error), just to mention two of them.

On more than one occasion I identified the other airplane and asked the pilot if he had seen me and he said no. He wasn't looking.

In the airlines I found many fellow pilots who flew with their cockpit lights full bright all the time at night, meaning that they would not be able to see anything outside even if they looked.

In one airline I flew for management had to put out a memo ordering the pilots not to use newspaper when covering the windscreens by day, because the print was hard to remove from the glass! They then used the thin paper tray covers from the passengers meal trays, which would stay nicely on the glass using static cling. You could see the reverse of the airline logo on the glass.

I have lost many good personal friends and acquaintances to mid air collisions and it is the first thing I tell my daughter to watch for, she is leaning to fly gliders and powered aircraft. She is right now at a glider camp, thermalling with two or three other gliders in the same thermal, with a busy commuter air corridor going through the same area.

I teach my GA students to use their shadows, check for an intruder in their vicinity. I have spotted many such conflicts and avoided them by doing this. I would no more fly around without watching diligently for other traffic than I would put my head in a microwave while it was running.

I flew three times in the last few days and had to maneuver on all of them to avoid traffic. One flight was IFR. I was not using TCAS or any aid other than lookout. If I had not been looking out, maybe I would not have hit the other guy, and there have been times when I spotted the other airplane too late to make any avoiding moves, but was lucky not to hit it. I suspect there is a majority of pilots out there who simply have no clue, on this or any other subject concerning true flight safety. They usually end up in management.

If you think it is not a problem then all I can say is God protects fools.

Or if it is a joke, pardon me for not seeing the humour.

[RetiredF4]

rsiano http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/infopop/icons/icon5.gif airspace classification more than 12 nm off shore
Hi,
I am an instructor teaching International Procedures Recurrent at FlightSafety Teterboro.
I am searching for an answer to this question...


rsiano: Mid-air collisions too rare to worry about!


I hope with my deepest heart, that both your posts are a joke.

franzl

[barit1]

Collisions in cruise happen now & then; Grand Canyon, Yugoslavia, India and Brazil come to mind. The first three were with older-generation nav and autopilot, which placed the flight path error on the order of a good fraction of a mile. Thus even if two aircraft were routed on a collision course, there was still a good chance of a miss - maybe with neither aircraft observing the other. The cheese holes are unlikely to line up, but occasionally they did.

The Brazil GOL/Legacy accident was quite different: The ATC error, coupled with RNP on two new/nearly-new aircraft, and neither aircraft using SLOP, meant the hole in the last slice of Swiss cheese was virtually certain to line up w/the other slices.

Which scenario will predominate henceforth? The proof is left to the student.

[Mark in CA]

Just a SLF, but it seems pretty obvious that the whole "big sky" calculation falls apart anywhere near an airport. I knew a flight instructor who was killed in a mid-air, along with her student pilot, back in 1989 just after turning downwind while departing Oakland North Field. Classic high-wing/low-wing situation.

[JW411]

I have had lots of close-encounters but only two heart-stopping events in my 50 years of flying.

The worst one was when I was in the right seat of one of Mrs Windsor's new Argosy transports. At the moment in question, I was in the right seat acting as "lookout" and PNF. My leader (LHS) was on instruments practising coming off an NDB hold in a left turn. The weather was CAVOK

He had overcooked the turn on to the ILS (left turn) so rolled the wings level to attack the centreline. Suddenly, the windscreen was FILLED with a BOAC VC-10.

I took control and try to dive to the right but it was a complete waste of time for everything had gone into "slow motion" mode.

I saw the F/O in the VC-10 (staring ahead) and counted almost every cabin window passing me in slow motion and finally read G-AVRH off the tail bullet as it went past. Strangely, I don't remember seeing the wing tip going past.

We landed very quickly and went down to the local pub for a nervous breakdown!

At the subsequent Board of Inquiry, I was challenged about how I knew which VC-10 I had seen and, when I responded that I had read G-ARVH off the tail bullet, it was agreed that that must have been bl**dy close!

I dreamed about that incident for some years afterwards.

When you can see another aeroplane getting close, that is not a near miss.

When you encounter another aircraft and it doesn't matter what you do or it does but you still just miss, THAT is a near miss.

[11Fan]

This one happened right over my house.

http://web.mit.edu/6.933/www/Fall2000/mode-s/images/dc91986.jpg

Impacted just a couple of block away.

Inbound LAX.

Aeroméxico Flight 498 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerom%C3%A9xico_Flight_498)

[413X3]

before the days of TCAS, how could you possibly say you had no close calls? I've never read such trash. I'd expect this on Airlines.net from a 25 year old

[barit1]

Read the opening paragraphs of Ernie Gann's "Fate Is The Hunter". :ooh:

Fair warning #1: You won't be able to put the book down.

Fair warning #2: Forget the movie. Gann disowned it, & sued to have his name removed from the credits.

[stepwilk]

"Fate Is the Hunter" is the best book about being a professional pilot that has ever been written. Ernie was a friend, and I even once co-flew a DC-3 with him, for an article I wrote for Flying Magazine.

[rsiano]

Hi,
Yep, I have read Fate is the Hunter at least 5 times. One of the greatest flying books ever written!

By the way, my post was a serious attempt to look at mid-air collisions from an unconventional point of view and not an attempt at humor.

There exists no accepted definition for a "near miss". It is un-definable - you either collide or you miss. There is no in between situation. Kind of like trying to say "almost pregnant." You either are or you aren't.

Thanks for the comments! Keep them coming.
Dick

[ATPMBA]

My uncle got killed in one. Tell your theory to his 4 kids and widow.

Years later as an SIC we had a near miss with a Cessna 500, Jack, who was on ONA DC-10 at JFK (other pilots said Jack had a "black cloud" over his head) back at base while doing the paper work for our trip Jack said it was extactly 25 years to the day that he was involed in USAF B-25 midair. He said the plane disintegrated around huim and he pulled his ripcord.

[rsiano]

Hi,
What is your definition of a "close call?" Or would you like to define the term "near miss?" I apologize if I offended you by offering my in depth and long standing experience of never having a "near miss." I can only report to you what I actually experienced.

Thanks for your comments. Keep them coming.
Dick

[ATPMBA]

Usually your first midair is your last one.

[protectthehornet]

first off:

"Fate is the Hunter" the book, is great.

second off: gann regreted disowning "Fate is the Hunter" the movie as it would and did cost him lots of money in royalties from TV viewings. I like the movie, but I do understand why many pilots don't like it. And I even spilled coffee once and it did matter!

Third off: I know two people who did survive mid airs...and not the same one. but it shook them up and sort of changed them forever...and not for the better.

[MTOW]

This bloke has obviously never flown an 'airplane' using GPS navigation, a 'quantum leap' in aviation safety (not!) that has shrunk the 'big sky' to clearly defined narrow lane with an almost assured collision should just one person among many get it wrong. Brazil last year comes immediately to mind.

[ATPMBA]

FATE is the HUNTER is dated.

Who wants to read about iced up DC-3's flying over the Applachians or a Capt. lighting matches under somone's nose during a 4 course range approach, heck smoking is banned nowadays.

We want the RH seat of a Barbie Jet at 250 hours TT and sneak in our Ipods to listen to music during cruise.

BTW- I'm just being sarcastic. My old boss ex-USAF, not that Jack guy met Ernie Gann at a lecture/seminar and said he was the the most intersting aviation guy he ever met. My old boss was SAC and ran the USAF DC-9 Medivac program for a long time.

[Basil]

Following a class act troll by aviationluver in JB, I wonder if this is another?
FTR:
London TMA 1968 - in cloud - happen to glance right just a B727 silhouette climbs rapidly through our level - very close. ATC apologised for error.

Somewhere in Europe about 2000 - on intercept heading with aircraft climbing from below with clearance to level 1000ft below us - continued climbing through cleared level - I initiated climb to avoid.

Non radio grass field takeoff in taildragger - tw^t doing out of wind demo forces me to stick it on the ground again as he almost takes my fin off.

Those are the incidents I detected and can remember. :hmm:

[galaxy flyer]

ATPMBA & protectthehornet

At the age of 12, I witnessed the aftermath of the collision of a EAL Connie and TWA B707 near the CMK VOR; the Connie broke out of the clouds overhead, fluttered around barely under control until crash landing about 2 miles away. At 33, I used one McAir's finest products, the ACES II seat, to get rid of the wreckage of my A-10 after it was hit very nearly head-on by a squadron mate in an A-10. I sincerely hope that is the end of my experiences with the subject.

To the original poster: surely, you gest. The very nature of planes going to and from airports limits the available airspace a great deal. Hell, the RN and the French Navy managed to collide two subs together under the open ocean. And how many subs are in the Atlantic at one time--two dozen? And the Atlantic is a helluva lot bigger than the USA and far fewer vehicles to worry about.

GF

[rsiano]

Hi Mark,
The publication of standardized traffic pattern altitudes should be eliminated. The authorities are setting us up for a collision. Random altitudes should be encouraged.
I understand the difficulty in accepting new procedures such as eliminating published standard traffic pattern altitudes but suggesting all aircraft arriving at an airport all operate at the same altitude sounds insane to me.
I have been applying randomness to my aircraft's track and altitude for more than 50 years thanks to having a thoughtful flight instructor introduce me to it all those years ago.
Why do not more pilots support my view? Is it wrong?
Thanks!
Dick

[con-pilot]

Well hell, I don't know.

In the 40 plus years of my flying I never had to make a radical change of heading or altitude to avoid a midair. Now there were numerous times that I had to take mild evasive action to avoid a possible midair. Now on those occasions if I had not taken those mild evasive actions would we have collided, I really don't know.

On two occasions I would have been placed into a position of colliding with another aircraft due to Air Traffic Controller mistakes, one on landing if I had followed the ATC's instructions I would have been turned right into the path of a C-130 and on the other occasion if had followed the ATC's instructions I would have flown right into a flight of four F-16. Fortunately I'm one of those pilots that look out the windshield before I make a turn.

That being said, I did have two very close friends kill each other in a midair, however, they were ferrying two aircraft, started fooling around with each other and managed to collide.

I never really forgave them for that, they were old and experienced enough to know better.


In the 40 plus years of my flying I never had to make a radical change of heading or altitude to avoid a midair.

Oops, I take that back. I damn near nailed a hang glider going into Aspen (ASE) one day. If I had not seen him when I did, I would have ran right into him. Forgot about that one.

[Willit Run]

I was in Bagram airspace the other day, and we had a handful of TA's in a period of 5 minutes way before ATC pointed them out to us. TCAS is the best invention in the last 30 years. When you talk about the big ole goofy world, there is a lot of space, but the planes have to land sometime, usualy at an airport! They all get funneled to one point at one time in the same airspace. Hell yea, mid airs are something to be concerned with.

[wiggy]

F-4 vs. F4..head to head at low level, missed by a wing span...didn't even know it had happened until the debrief......wonder how many others I missed?

JP, open FIR teaching basic aeros, look up before pulling up - we did..still succeded in getting very, very, close to someone at the top of the loop.

JP again, open FIR, low level nav...well we missed otherwise I wouldn't be typing this.....

Fly the grown up stuff now, with TCAS, thankfully, because my last "event" was a 180 X 0 with a Continental aircraft just North of Baghdad, on the airway, because of an ATC stuff on on the levels..

So mid-airs are too rare to worry about? ....my ar**.

[Huck]

My instrument instructor, the best CFI I ever flew with, died in a midair over Tehachapi California. They hit beak-to-beak. They were both VFR, in excellent weather.

He was in a C-180 and it came apart. Here's the Baron that hit him:

http://ships.bouwman.com/Planes/baronmidair.jpg

http://www.avweb.com/newspics/baronmidair3.jpg

[fireflybob]

I recall the FAA doing a study circa 20/30 years ago about the midair collision risk and discovered that the highest risk was within ten miles of an airport with mixed IFR/VFR traffic.

Within the open FIR (Class G) airspace there is a certain amount of random separation. You might get close to another a/c but chances are you'll avoid it rather than hitting it so long as you take reasonable precautions, ie don't fly in IMC without radar service (although that's not foolproof).

Closest one I had was in early 1980s when I was f/o on B737-200 going to Alicante from UK. We'd just crossed Maella at FL330 southbound and were turning onto the new track and I had just passed a full position report (required in those days) and was recording the fuel figures for a fuel check when the Captain uttered an expletive and we were pulling up in a 45 deg turn to the left. As I looked out I saw an opposite direction a/c (can't recall type) go flashing underneath with no more than 100 ft vertical separation.
The lookout and correct action by the Captain saved our lives. Turned out it was an ATC error - the other a/c had been cleared through our level on another frequency.

Ok now we have TCAS etc but the midair collision risk is very real and anybody who thinks it isn't is living in cloud cuckoo land!

When I did my commercial training at Hamble in 1969 two students died after their two aircraft collided in the circuit which was right hand. One was turning crosswind and the other was joining. I found this event a sobering experience.

Worst Mid air collision in history Part 1- Flight Kazakhstan 1907- Flight Saudi Arabian 763 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoxzhwVNaaI)

[gums]

Salute!

"big sky theory", you bet. BUT................

We ain't all flying random flight paths to random places from other random places.

So with airways and approach procedures and busy airports, then the "big sky" theory does not apply. We have hundreds of planes trying to follow the "line" in the sky or all heading for the same place. Worse, we have all the automation which ought to allow better lookout, but for some reason it doesn't show in the stats.

The air traffic control in the early days of Viet Nam were basically advisory calls by the GCI sites ( CRC's). We took off and ANNOUNCED our flight path and altitude, and pressed thru clouds or haze or smoke, etc. Few, if any, mid-airs. And we had plenty of traffic in a small area. The CRC's would advise of potential conflicts, but that's all. No airways, and only "lines in the sky" were for approach patterns, and then we were under great RAPCON folks' care.

While it is true that the sky is big, we must subtract all the "wasted" space. We must realize we have dozens of planes trying to fly the same lines. The general aviation and the fighter mid-airs usually happen when folks ain't clearing with their eyeballs or radar, or when they violate the rules of engagement ( see GF's post). The commercial aviation close calls seem to be related to two planes trying to get to the same place at the same time, and/or lack of attention by ground radar controllers. I am impressed by TCAS, especially the replay of a close call. Great learning tool, and also great for preventing an actual collision.

So the "big sky" is not a player for most of the commercial pilots, wouldn't you agree?

Gums sends...

[protectthehornet]

a rememberance of the big sky theory.

that was what was used in the USA ...then there was a collision over the Grand Canyon...before I was born mind you.

then things changed..

besides pulling our legs, why did you post the original post?

[latetonite]

As we are all flying the magenta line, guided by GPS, our flightpaths in an airway are matching precise, not like in the old days where we relied on different navigation methods, and we stayed somewhere within the 10 NM radius. Opposite traffic in an airway nowadays WILL hit you unless one takes evasive action. Luckyly we have TCAS. Yes, the sky is big, but we all tend to fly in the same narrow spaces between waypoints, and exactly above, behind and below each other.

[PA-28-180]

"As we are all flying the magenta line, guided by GPS, our flightpaths in an airway are matching precise, not like in the old days...."

Don't they still train pilots to fly slightly off-set? Excuse my ignorance, the biggest I ever flew were navajos and king airs under part 135 - so during cruise, I was above most GA aircraft and below the heavy metal. However, I WAS trained to fly slightly off the center line of the airway.

[PBL]

rsiano asks a good question. It is by no means a joke.

Here is a paper by Robert Patlovany (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119154945/abstract) which was published in the premier journal in the field of risk analysis, on exactly this question. He comes to the conclusion, as rsiano asked, that random is better than (some of) the current regimentation.

I have looked rather hard at mid-air collisions between aircraft on scheduled commercial operations, before and after TCAS. Keeping in mind the growth of traffic, and that there have been two collisions in cruise between TCAS-equipped aircraft, it is not at all clear from the statistics that TCAS is a win. I tried to discuss this on this forum some three years ago, which was mostly unproductive, so I took it elsewhere (the IEEE Risk Factor blog).

The posters who suggest that some of the conventions lead to convergence are following a line of thought which led Patlovany to his study. It converts into a good argument for free flight. However, free flight requires TCAS, and that is another story, for TCAS still suffers from technical and algorithmic anomalies (although the latest RTCA version is free of the one I was most concerned about).

PBL

PBL

[mary meagher]

Anybody here remember Dave Gunson, the Air Traffic Controller from Birmingham who used to give an afterdinner talk that was widely circulated on tape (that's a clue as to how long ago!). ( Including details about the French Air Traffic Controllers strike....and how it affected his operations)

He raised exactly the point about ATC funneling traffic into small spaces.

[GGR]

Mid air collisions too rare to worry about. Who said this? Unless the answer is one of the Wright Brothers......its a big sky only when you are alone in it!

GGR

Ex ATC

[Feather #3]

rsiano,

I think this thread should be closed as your theory is a joke!!:ugh:

However, while flying a mate's aircraft in the UK on a direct from a farm strip to Leicester [thus a totally random track], I alarmed him by doing a quick diversion to the right as we had a dead-on closure with a C150. He'd asked me to not fly any level rule so I stuck to 2,750'AMSL. This guy was going to come straight through the front windscreen!!:uhoh:

So, you can stick the "Big Sky" theory and just count luck if you've been flying for a long time and never had a problem. Incidentally, when almost abeam our [now laterally displaced] position, this guy saw us and made an instinctive bank away until he realised it was too late anyway!

Now, would you like the GPS induced head-to-head stuff on airways with ATC error over a 40-year airline career?

Wake up to yourself!:=

G'day ;)

[Basil]

Oops, I take that back. I damn near nailed a hang glider
Aahh, that's reminded me of another - B757 vs para glider north of Venice.
Para pilot must have crapped himself since he'd easily see (and possibly hear) us before we noticed and took avoiding action :ooh:

mary meagher,
I have 'What goes up might come down.' by David Gunson which is, I guess, the piece to which you refer.

[plugster]

Had a near miss yesterday out of a small airfield in Germany. Copilot saw a Cessna flashing by no 100m away. We were leaving the traffic pattern 500ft above pattern altitude to keep clear of incoming traffic. It wasn't of great help in the aftermath...

[fc101]

The continental United States is comprised of 3 million square miles. If the airspace to a level of 10 miles is available to be used by all aircraft the available amount of airspace is 30 million cubic miles. This is a heck of a lot of airspace or another way of saying it is to say: "It is a big sky!"

Yes and no...while there is 30,000,000 mi3 available aircraft (I mean the usual commercial stuff) fly along airways. The more accurate location and navigation systems become the more precisely flown a given routing is. At the end of the day, while we might have 30,000,000 mi3 available we restrict ourselves to very precisely defined lines through that 3 dimensional space.

This 30,000,000 figure also does not take into consideration wake-separation, aircraft sizes nor the congestion around airports.

fc101
E145 driver

[Graybeard]

Midairs are down the list when it comes to accidents.

[Basil]

Many captains fly a 1 mile right offset on airways and NATs. I did.

[barit1]

At least you don't offset 1 mi LEFT when in UK, Oz, NZ, or Japanese airspace. ;)

[Wiley]

Don't be too ready to laugh, barit. I once flew with an FO (now a widebody captain) who insisted that if we flew 1 mile right offset outbound, we'd have to fly 1 mile left on the way back.

[protectthehornet]

WILEY

sounds like he was the son of the US army officer who ordered all the new Army wright flyers inside a barn as he was told the wings were warping!

[pattern_is_full]

Interestingly, my only two close encounters occurred during primary flight training - never one since (knock wood!)

One was primarily a comm error, and in the airport pattern. We did a practice go-around, and noticed another Cessna at the hold line as we flew down the runway. Climbed out, turned X-wind, turned downwind, and as we rolled the 152's wing level - surprise - there was that "other" plane - also rolling onto downwind 150 ft. away at our altitude. We did a 360 away from the other plane to come back on downwind with reasonable spacing behind him. Turned out he had been on an outdated CTAF frequency, so we never heard his position calls.

In that one case, I had that "sixth-sense" hairs-on-the-back-of-the-neck feeling, due to the lack of any radio calls, and was watching for the other plane all through climbout and x-wind legs. Even said to my CFI, "I can't see that other plane anymore - did he take off?" And even so....

The other was nearby in the practice area (but not the pattern) - practicing a tight spiral descent, and suddenly we were face-to-face with a small twin in cruise 100 ft. above us - 15 seconds earlier and we'd have been in the previous turn of the spiral - at his altitude...

I live about 6 blocks from where the wreckage fell in this one: mid-air collision of 2 private planes over the city of denver (http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/denver_report.htm). (you can ignore the conspiracy-buff BS. The report is otherwise factually correct) It was in a VFR corridor between the foothills of the Rockies and the KDEN Class B, so heavily travelled.

My take-away is that - regardless of theory and statistics - eternal vigilance will reduce the number of near collisions overall, and reducing the number of near-collisions overall will reduce the number of near-collisions where "near" is within the wingspan of the aircraft.

[Wiley]

Well, if we're going to tell 'war-ies'... one of the more sobering near misses I had was quite some time ago in a C130. We were on an IFR flight plan (and IMC) between Phan Rang and Vung Tau at around 8,000' and flying at 250 knots. Somewhere in the cruise, we flew clear of cloud... if find a South Vietnamese Air Force C47 about three miles in front of us - and I mean exactly in front of us! - doing about 120k.

We found out later that he had not lodged a flight plan, but his track keeping was superb.

If we hadn't broken clear of cloud when we did, I really don't know if we'd have spotted him in time and I suspect we'd have had a rather eventful radome to rudder meeting with a roundabout 130k closing speed, which wouldn't have been pretty for either party.

We manoeuvred just enough to miss him and wagged out fingers (or was it finger singular?) at two very surprised faces as we passed them.

[boofhead]

Like all accident stats, there are thousands of close calls for every midair. The reason we don't report the close calls is mainly because we don't even see the other guy. I am convinced that the vast majority of close calls go unnoticed by either crew, so for every one you do see, there must have been dozens you did not see. I base this on the fact that whenever I have been able to identify the other airplane and have asked the crew, they did not see me. Maybe I am paranoid and have a more energetic look out going when I fly, but I sure see a lot of other airplanes and I don't call it a close call unless I have had to maneuver to avoid the other guy or we pass within 100 feet or so. If we were clearly going to miss each other, I don't worry about it.
Don't rely on TCAS. The other guy might not have a transponder or might not have it turned on. There is plenty of light airplane traffic around close to and sometimes inside your protected airspace, in VFR or marginal VFR especially. I was flying out of LAX in a Cessna 310, the transponder was inop and I was VFR. As I climbed I saw a FEDEX Dash 8 or similar flying at around 8000 crossing my path left to right, very close. I had to level off or I would have flown right into him, and intended to pass a few hundred feet below him. I was looking up, to make sure I had clearance, and as I passed under him I saw the FO look around and see me. I could almost see the surprise on his face, and before he totally disappeared his airplane rotated violently up, to avoid what must have been a frightening sight, since he had no idea I had him in sight and was already leveled off. I was glad he was not flying passengers, or else there would have been stories in the LA Times the next day. So what value your TCAS there? How effective is your electronic protections? Do you seriously think that replacing the Mk 1 eyeball with a box of tricks is a good idea? BTW, birds don't have TCAS.
A buddy of mine told me a story about a French glider instructor he was flying with in the south of France. Trying to impress the instructor, he called every other airplane that he was able to see as traffic. In every case the instructor replied "and what about the other one?" So my buddy intensified his efforts to see the "other one" and when he saw it, he called it too.
On the ground, he remarked to the French chap that he must have exceptional eyesight, since he was able to see more airplanes than my buddy could, and the instructor replied that he did not actually see the "other one", but knew that there must always be one out there. It is not the airplane you can see that is going to get you; it is the one you don't see!
We NEED to improve our lookout. We MUST be more vigilant. As a group, we are doing a pisspoor job and HAVE TO do better.
After 30 years in the airline business I know that lookout is worse there than any other field of aviation, and most of the readers of this forum are airline pilots, so yes, I am pointing at you.

[MarkerInbound]

Not too many planes make it above FL450 so call it 21 million cubic miles of airspace.

Big Sky works well over Montana but the problem is most of those planes want to go to MIA/south Florida, ATL, the nightmare airspace from BWI to BOS, ORD, DFW, LAX or the SFO/OAK/bay area. Say there are 10,000 airliners/freighters/corp. jets in the US (just guessing.) So you'd think everyone gets 210 cubic miles of air but you're lucky to get 3 miles in trail at a busy airport.

[opherben]

The original post doesn't belong in a professional pilot forum.
Its existence questions whether the periodic medical check should include a mental state evaluation, the answer is obvious. Warp:sad:

[mary meagher]

Filed an IFR flight plan to go to Austin Executive from St. Petersburg Florida in a light plane. Nice day. Bimbling along, expecting the enroute controller would be looking after me......

When another aircraft appeared crossing my bow, and not very far away at all. I immediately complained to the controller, why didn't you tell me about that traffic I nearly ran into?

If conditions are VFR, madam, he replied, you have to look out for yourself.....

[Jabawocky]

Just out of curiosity what Class of Airspace were you in at the time. If you do not recall could you look it up please.

Might make for an interesting example down here!

J:ok:

[mary meagher]

sorry, Jabawocky, unable! it was probably unrestricted, this was years ago!
anyone familiar with the route and current could probably answer your question. If anyone was in the wrong, it was probably me, because a similar thing happened near Atlanta, and the controller in that case when I squawked about conflicting traffic said sorry, he was too busy to tell me about it!

In both cases, it was VFR. And in both cases, I didn't see the opposition until quite late.

Moral of the story, look out for yourself!

[RatherBeFlying]

My first close call was recovering from a PFL with instructor in the middle of nowhere in particular. I had added power, turned off carb heat, trimmed out and had a look around a few hundred feet AGL to see off my right wingtip another highwing that I was about to climb in front of.

I lowered the nose and the right side got all pernickity about what the H... was I doing??? Said there was another airplane. WHERE ??? Over there pointing to the right wing that blocked the instructors view -- Whereupon the left ashtray bounced off the ceiling as the instructor pointed the nose straight down from a few hundred feet up:uhoh:

Started flying again a few years ago after a long hiatus -- now there's all sorts of close encounters. In a high wing in cruise, I like to add a hundred feet and have had one occasion to be grateful. Flying gliders there's other gliders popping up all over the place, even on long cross countries. In the Fall, the towplanes blend in against the foilage, but the white glider behind makes them easier to find:p

There's three SEPs I've had a good look at during XCs -- plus two twin turboprops, one of which I saw and was grateful he was going at a altitude between me and another glider sharing a thermal; another that ATC dumped me in front of that I used a near 90 degree bank to avoid:eek:

I saw him from well away, but he was really trucking.

After flying with other gliders in thermals, you begin to learn just how wide a turn can be, even steeply banked a low speed.

Then there's dodging birds. In a glider they're pretty good at missing us, but I've collected a bird at night.

[rottenray]

Mary -

If conditions are VFR, madam, he replied, you have to look out for yourself.....Probably wasn't a big comfort at the time, but I'd guess it was something which has stayed with you?

(BTW - love your posts and your candor - I'm learning from you.)

[protectthehornet]

mary and rotteray

it seems to my old memory that while on an IFR clearance, in a radar environment, point outs of non IFR traffic, or non conflicting IFR traffic will not happen...UNLESS it is a jet.

I recall that JETs receive slightly better service due to their higher speeds.

ALSO, if you are IFR (not necessarily IMC) and do get a traffic advisory, you will NOT get a vector away from VFR traffic unless you request it!!!!

I can't find my books right now to verify this ,but I encourage you to check aim and radar services/atc services.

[rsiano]

Hi Protect,
Thanks for helping me make my case. Your experience of only 4 in 35 years of flying reinforces may argument.
By the way, I only suggested it is not worth worrying about mid-air collisions. I did not suggest or imply to stop looking out the windows.
Thanks for your comment.
Dick

[rsiano]

Hi Retired,
Nope, no humor intended. I wanted to start a discussion centered around the very small number (only 10 in 2007).
Thanks!
Dick

[rsiano]

Hi Barit,
Do you normally apply randomness to your aircraft's track and altitude?
Thanks!
Dick

[boofhead]

Coincidence. Last sunday with a student flying into an airfield with Flight Service. Told him the freq and he called, no reply. Since it was sunday I thought Flight Service was not on duty. He made all the required calls, we saw nobody, and turned onto final. At about 300 feet he swore, pulled up and avoided an airplane immediately below us, making the same speed, bound for the same runway. I did not see him until the go around, and did not even see his shadow, which is usually what I see first. Maybe the two shadows were superimposed.
I do not know how he joined the pattern, I think it was through Base, and from low level, so we never had a chance to see him. This is a common way of joining at this airport, but he might have been under us all along, even on downwind. Scary.
The radio was finger trouble of course, and after I reset it, we continued in the pattern.
I asked Flight Service if they had any details of what happened, but the lady on the radio said she heard nothing from any of the airplanes related to this incident. The other pilot apparently never did see us, and the Flight Service was not aware we were even there, until after the go around when we called. There was an airplane waiting to takeoff, and that pilot could easily see the final approach but made no warning calls.
Many years of being the target, now I was the offender, and it did not feel good.

[barit1]

rsiano:Hi Barit,
Do you normally apply randomness to your aircraft's track and altitude?
Thanks!
Dick

I haven't been active for a while, but yes, I'd normally put a little insurance on the published track. It's not random, for the same reason I don't drive in random lanes on the highway.

BTW - In my jump-seat days I observed that crews usually put a bit of vertical and/or lateral offset on their track in certain parts of the world. The unofficial rules for this were probably (I can't say for sure) drafted in an offsite IFALPA meeting somewhere.

barit1

[RetiredF4]

rsiano
Hi Retired,
Nope, no humor intended. I wanted to start a discussion centered around the very small number (only 10 in 2007).
Thanks!
Dick


10 reported? How many had been overlooked due to unwanted paperwork? How many have not been observed?

Last year a UL pilot was killed due to midair in the approach-sector of our airfield by a jak-formation.....
Ive lost my best friend in a midair in 1987, same day my son was born.....
I´ve lost another three squadron-buddies in midairs in 5 years.....
A cessna-Pilot got killed, when he got into the wake turbulence of a squadron jet ...... actually that was a nearmiss, however a fatal one..
I could count the rivets in the intake of an F-4 while passing unnoticed...
Guy came back with damaged wingtip, did´nt know how happened....
on another airfield there was the other guy wondering, why his wingtank was looking weired, both had met and hadn´t noticed anything.....

Sure most of it was military in VFR/VMC in one of the most crowded parts of germany, but all those mentioned had been accidents. I wont tell the many happenings with aircraft all sizes i met close enough to think about it. By the way, i also did´nt like the paperwork, and you never knew if it would´t fall back on yourself.

....even when you dont intend it, a young inexpierienced guy might just use your big sky thinking and reduce his already marginal lookout to zero. I dont want to be his paying passenger.

franzl

[aflyer100]

I own a plane (made in 1968) that was in a mid-air in 1970 over Alabama. This was long before I owned it.

When I was researching the airplane before I bought it, I was astonished to find it in an NTSB report. The damage was minor (some sheet metal, a new propeller, and an engine teardown). The good news was that everyone in both planes survived without injury!

This seemed to me, a very unusual mid-air where evryone was fine.

So where is the spooky part?????????

A couple of months ago, I was flying from northern maine to Massachusetts IFR and working Boston Approach. They called traffic and warned about a similar callsign. I'm N4907J and it turned out that N4906J was on frequency flying the same route in the opposite direction (we were over PSM).

I soon saw an almost identical plane passing safely off my left wing.

Once he was off-frequency, the controller commented on the similar tail number and I said, "I bet he rolled off the assembly line just before me."

Well, when I got home, I Googled the tail number and found an NYSB report about a mid-air:ooh:

In 1969, the N4906J was in a mid-air on the west coast. Everyone survived that one too!!!

So Two airplaanes. Same model, Same year of manufacture with consecutive tail numbers....

* Both had midairs while in normal cruise
* All planes were able to glide to an airport
* In both cases everyone survived without injury
* In both cases the other plane was a military plane

While I'm glad my plane is pre-disastered, I have to wonder what kind of Karma was floating around the Arrow production line back in 1968!!

[protectthehornet]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

.

FAA investigating after planes collide on runway
CHARLOTTE - The FAA is investigating a collision between two U.S. Airways planes
on the ground at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport.

A spokesperson says the wing of one aircraft clipped the rudder of another while
both planes were on the taxiway at about 5:20 p.m. Saturday.

Flight 704 was preparing to take off for Germany and Flight 413 was en route to
San Francisco. Both planes were airbuses.
The FAA says both aircraft were taken out of commission after the collision.

The 200-plus passengers on the German-bound plane were given food vouchers and lodging.

[AnthonyGA]

Assuming the aircraft were distributed in only half the available airspace or 15 million cubic miles it would mean each aircraft has approximately 3,000 cubic miles or a space 20 miles long, 20 miles wide and 7 miles high.

Out of curiosity, I took this calculation a bit further, and the results are surprising.

Let's suppose that aircraft distributed absolutely randomly in the U.S. airspace (laterally and vertically) are separated by an average of 40 statute miles. This is already highly unlikely for reasons I'll mention in a moment, but bear with me.

Let's assume that each aircraft occupies a cube of about 1000 feet on a side.

With six thousand flights in the air, it turns out that the chances of two aircraft occupying the same 1000-foot cube of air at any given instant are about one in 1600, according to my back-of-envelope calculations.

Now, with 6000 aircraft aloft, and one in 1600 being in danger of a midair … well, the "Big Sky" hypothesis just doesn't look that safe any more.

Yes, the average separation might be 40 miles, but there is no guarantee that every pair of aircraft will have exactly 40 miles of separation. And in fact there's a pretty good chance that aircraft will be meeting in the same small points of the airspace fairly often with 6000 airplanes flying around.

So the Big Sky hypothesis fails.

Imagine an ocean in which explosive mines are anchored in a perfectly regular array, with an average of 500 feet between them. Since they are stationary in this array, 500 feet sounds safe, and it is. But now suppose that the mines are untethered and that currents in the ocean move them in completely random directions, all at the same time. Within a very short time, some of the mines will collide and explode. The 500-foot separation is great as long as it's guaranteed, but when the mines can move freely, they need a much, much greater average separation in order to remain safe, otherwise the chances of two of them reaching the same point at the same time are far too great.

You can imagine the same thing with billiard balls on a pool table. Same principle. If they are all motionless with two feet between them, no problem. But if you start them all moving randomly, a few of them will begin to collide almost immediately.

Of course, the Big Sky hypothesis is already unrealistic. It assumes that there are no airports, and that every aircraft occupies a totally, completely random chunk of sky. But in real life, airplanes take off and land from airports, which greatly concentrates their density at certain points, and they fly along airways, which also concentrates them, and they follow published arrival and departure procedures, which concentrates them still further.

Still, ironically, you may be better off by restricting aircraft to specific airways and routes and maintaining separation between them actively and explicitly then you would be by letting them wander randomly and uncontrolled and hoping that the laws of probability will prevent mid-air collisions. The chances of a mid-air can be kept as low as desired by an appropriate level of precaution and vigilance in explicit separation, but the chances of a mid-air when aircraft wander about at random are fixed by the laws of probability and cannot be reduced. So the risks are actually lower if the aircraft are restricted to specific paths but carefully separated.

I hope that rabid proponents of "free flight" are keeping these realities in mind.

[PBL]

AnthonyGA,

if you are interested in the statistics, then you might wish to read the Patlovany paper which I referenced in my earlier post (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/417177-mid-air-collisions-too-rare-worry-about-2.html#post5735673)

It appeared in the major journal Risk Analysis and comes closer to addressing the original question than most other posts here. This thread seems to me to be more about anecdotes than it does about answering the original question.

PBL

[MidgetBoy]

ive flown inbound to an airport and when i called up the tower, he asked me if i was the one at 1100 feet or the one at 3000 feet.. the dots on the screen were overlapping and neither of us knew the other one was there...

[Art E. Fischler-Reisen]

And another thing, why bother checking the met reports? The weather is usually OK..... :ok:

[Loose rivets]

In about 1961, I was training in an Auster and had just left SEN., still talking to them on the radio. My instructor had let me loose having told me to stop doing all the things I liked doing, put a line on a map, and b:mad:y well follow it for once in my misbegotten life.

At 2,000' I was still in SEN's circle, (via an odd procedure to let a DAK in) and looked down at the map. When I looked up into the 10+ viz, I saw an American Air-force owned Tripacer pass under me. It was so near that the aerial must have come close to brushing my wheels. I thought bollox to maps, and they later got a bollocking.

Just goes to prove, the MkI eyeball is only of use when pointed in the right direction.

[Lonewolf_50]

rsiano:

My name is not Alfred, and I worried plenty. One of the reasons midairs are so rare is that we do worry, and thus keep a look out, and we avoid them. See and avoid. It mostly works.

Closest to a midair I got was in 1988 over Padre Island, doing spins in the MOA/training area. Typical South Texas sunny, hazy day. Our "box" was 5500-10,000 feet vertically. As usual, we made the 99 call on Uniform (no victor in those aircraft) did the clearing turns, and looked high, center, and low for traffic. Clear. Up we go, stall, spin, down we tumble, recover, and as we pull up I spot (rather close) a brown flash going right to left. Take controls, evade, dive, avoid, continue turn, full throttle, give chase.

I spotted him easily, straight and level, heading north along the beach line. No way he ever saw us, but man, we had been very close.

I decided to find out what was going on. I closed to a parade position, read off his side number to our radar advisory service, and backed away. He stayed S & L the whole time. Oblivious to us. Given that it was a warning area, he was certainly within his rights to be flying along the beach. (Hope PIC was awake ... )

Radar site had this info for me: no squawk 1200, no paint on him until I joined up and called in his side number. The said they'd call FSS and let the guy know.

Here is what galled me: we did what we were supposed to do, look, clear, look, and it still didn't help me or my student spot him before we did our spin.

See and avoid usually works ... but it isn't infallible, which is why we worry, sir. I wonder if that light civil crew had someone named Alfred at the controls.

[West Coast]

T-34 just West of Catalina Island off SOCAL coast, June, 1994. Looked down to check a chart, looked up to see a canopy full of a twin cessna, looked about the size of 777. Not far from a VOR, which it appeared to be heading towards. Became a big believer in flight following from ATC.

Yes, mid-airs are something to worry about.

[JW411]

Lonewolf 50:

If you haven't already read my posting #8, then please do so for I could not agree with you more.

My life almost ended in similar circumstances.

I was in the right seat of a military 4-engined aeroplane going round "our" published holding pattern at 3,000 feet. I was PNF and, as such, responsible for the lookout as my leader was "on instruments". Due to the design of the aeroplane, there was a strip of windows in front of us therefore, from the right seat I cannot see what is coming up behind us.

The VC-10 concerned came up our left side at exactly the same altitude from our seven o'clock (so could not possibly have been seen).

They never saw us. In very slow motion I watched the jet efflux continue into the distance with not even a one degree heading change.

What was the result of this very near miss?

The crew of the VC-10 was a mixture of BOAC and the Manufacturers. They were on their way from the manufacturer's airfield (Wisley) to practice "blind landings" (CAT 111) at RAE Bedford. It was such a nice day that they decided to proceed VFR (no radar control in those days) at 3,000 feet.

Since our (very busy) military airfield only had an ATZ of 2,000 feet and 2 nms and they were at 3,000 feet, they didn't even see the necessity to even call ATC on the way past. They stated in the report that they "did not even recognise our holding pattern".

That would have been fine but if you decide to fly something like a VC-10 at low level then you need to have your eyes out like organ stops.

They didn't even see us.

We were very lucky and so were they although they never ever realised it!

[Lonewolf_50]

JW411:
Lonewolf 50:

If you haven't already read my posting #8, then please do so for I could not agree with you more.
Read it, and appreciate your amplification as well.

In re PNF and lookout, a problem with that cost me a friend, in 1981, and five others I didn't know so well when their two T-44's ran into one another in and around the landing pattern at an outlying field (Cabaniss Field) in Corpus Christi, Texas. RIP Ensign Jones. :(

[fantom]

Guy came back with damaged wingtip, did´nt know how happened....
on another airfield there was the other guy wondering, why his wingtank was looking weired, both had met and hadn´t noticed anything.....


When was that, Retired? I might be able to help...

Also, have to add, I lost a very dear friend to a mid-air (2 Harriers).

[fleigle]

In the early '70's when I was doing my initial flight training I was with my instructor making some approaches into a medium-sized FAA towered airport which was about 10 miles from my small airport base, which was non-towered.

The purpose was to sharpen my radio skills and to get some experience in a controlled environment.

I had about 10 hrs previously in a J-3, then had moved and transitioned into a C150, then had solo-ed and had quite a few hours in the local practice area.

I had not had any scary flights up until this next one
I was flying and on final when I thought I heard our callsign, I was just about to pick up the mic and say "say again"? when my instructor took the column, said "my plane" and banked us hard right !!! ...about 5 seconds later an OV-10 went past us on the left making an instrument approach !!!!
:ooh::ooh:

[RetiredF4]

fantom
When was that, Retired? I might be able to help...

Also, have to add, I lost a very dear friend to a mid-air (2 Harriers).


Thanks for the offer, but it was easy. The one with the damaged wing and the one with the wrinkled wingtank had both been from my squadron on different missions. Somewhere in the blue sky over northern G. they´ve met. Big surprise.

A bit OT, but scary as hell. On a strafing event on Frasca Range i was rolling out on final, called "3 is in hot", when out of nowhere about 15 meters to my left another phantom let loose a stick of lead with his vulcan gun. Somehow the No. 4 aircraft had f....ed up and had cut me off. Clear blue sky, standard range pattern.....

The worrying thing about midair potential is, you dont know when it will happen and from which direction.

franzl

[Dave's brother]

...give yourselves a 45-minute break and tune into this. It's David Gunson, the 1981 "What goes up might come down" routine. Brilliant! :ok:

David Gunson "What goes up might come down" From 1981, Former air traffic contoler tells us how to fly a plane. maddog77 on USTREAM. Birds (http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/4924716)

[WALKINONCLOUDS]

Well I Guess We should Not Worry About Positon And Hold Also,
By The Time We Get There, They Will Be Gone, All That Space On The Runway And All.

It Seemed To Work In The Largest Aircraft Accident In History....

[GHOTI]

PTH, knew Gann slightly aboard the Strumpet on San Juan Island from numerous casual encounters. Ernest had the definition of the best yacht: It's a vessel that drinks 6, feeds 4 and sleeps 2. Being a pilot and a writer myself, we never talked business, just boats, but a gentleman he were.

[paull]

Mid 70s, Capt 'Jock' was flying in a bunch of divers from Amsterdam to Paull airfield on the North Sea coast(a small grass strip from where Bristows would shuttle them out to the oil rigs). It was night time, he was about 2hrs late on his filed flight plan and someone decided that they would have a bit of fun and send a a fast jet out to identify him. I guess there is not much overlap between the cruise speed of his Aztec and the stall speed of the jet but it nibbled off a bit of his wing tip and then came back for a second look. He thought he was going to be finished off but it became clear that the jet had not even seen him first time around even though he was what they were sent to intercept.

2- Knew a married couple who flew gliders and never flew together for the sake of the kids. The only near mid-air either had was with the other - they were in different gliders in the same thermal!

[sagan]

Was in a Partenavia with an instructor doing a single engine climb. I had feeling something was not right. Leant forward and looked up only to see the prop and spinner of a Cessna directly above us heading same direction and speed... We were saved by the almost non existant rate of climb and that ' sixth sence '.

Also once had a windscreen full of a Bell 206 crossing right to left. Can still see the coiled cable from pilots headset.

[bast0n]

In cloud in a Wessex 5 hit I a Sea Harrier. Saw nothing, felt a LOT! Both survived - put down to air traffic error. Landed in pub car park, borrowed a fiver from the barmaid and had several beers...........:bored:

[A321COBI]

Oh come on, very very rare
most crashes/collisions occur when landing, mid air collisions are simply down too lousy ATC :}:mad::rolleyes::ugh::8:=:=:=:*

[desarcis]

When I learned to fly there was a saying about midair collisions"It'll spoil
your day". Several years later I had a close call I won't forget, I was flying in
the North End of YUL controlled airspace on a hasy summer afternoon
I crosed under the nose of what I beleive was an HS748, I called ATC
and ask to confirm they had me on radar after a long pause there
was an affirmative reply, which was enough the make my point my day
was saved.Beware!!!! From the great white North