Mid-air collisions too rare to worry about!
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Mid-air collisions too rare to worry about!
Mid-Air Collisions Are Too Rare to Worry About or It is a Big Sky!
Alfred E. Neumann What Me Worry?
How often do mid-air collisions occur? I went to the Nall Report on the AOPA's web site to see the most recent General Aviation statistics available for 2007. The Nall Report on General Aviation accident statistics only covers fixed-wing general aviation aircraft weighing 12,500 pounds or less. It says there were only 10 in all of 2007!
Surprisingly these 10 mid-air collisions involving 20 different aircraft with 21 pilots and passengers resulted in only 4 deaths. Two of the mid-air collisions were by four aircraft involved in formation flight.
The fact mid-air collisions may be survivable is rarely written or talked about. In 2007, there were a total of 17 survivors from six different mid-airs involving 12 aircraft!
My flight career took of in January of 1961 when I first soloed a Piper PA-12 Super Cruiser as a member of the Kent State University Flying Club. I began to fly for Trans World Airlines in 1964. First as a co-pilot on the Lockheed Constellation and finally as a Boeing 747 captain. Along the way I accumulated a lot of flight time over the next 50 years.
In that 50 year period of time, I never experienced a close call from a mid-air collision. Why?
The continental United States is comprised of 3 million square miles. If the airspace to a level of 10 miles is available to be used by all aircraft the available amount of airspace is 30 million cubic miles. This is a heck of a lot of airspace or another way of saying it is to say: "It is a big sky!"
Now how many aircraft are using the big sky at the same time? Today, it is possible to obtain the answer from a web site that counts aircraft in the air called FlightAware.com. I just went to the web site and right now (Sunday, May 22, 2010 at 7:30 PM there are 3,672 airborne aircraft including 205 which are operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR).
The highest number of aircraft that are in the air at the same time counted by FlightAware is 5,650.
Assuming the aircraft were distributed in only half the available airspace or 15 million cubic miles it would mean each aircraft has approximately 3,000 cubic miles or a space 20 miles long, 20 miles wide and 7 miles high.
This is the primary reason for the lack of mid-air collisions. The Big Sky!
What role does Air Traffic Control play in mid-air collision prevention?
Another little talked about and written about is the possibility that it might play a negative role meaning ATC procedures may actually contribute to the mid-air collision issue.
ATC will normally assign aircraft to fly along an established airway such as Victor 210 separating us by altitude, lateral and longitudinal separations and watched over by radar. If either an air traffic controller or a pilot makes a mistake in the altitude flown or assigned, a mid-air collision is much more likely to happen due to the traffic being compacted by the present system.
In the real world, it means they are actually packing us closer together than if random flight paths were being flown by each aircraft. Normal vertical separation between Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) aircraft is just 1,000 feet. The normal vertical separation between IFR traffic and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) traffic is just 500 feet.
As a result of being aware of these facts, I will admit to not ever being overly concerned about mid-air collisions while I am flying my airplane.
What level of mid-air collision concern to you experience while flying your plane?
By the way, there is a matter of certainty about a comet hitting the earth at some point in the future and wiping out all life forms.
Do you worry much about it happening?
"What me worry?"
Alfred E. Neumann What Me Worry?
How often do mid-air collisions occur? I went to the Nall Report on the AOPA's web site to see the most recent General Aviation statistics available for 2007. The Nall Report on General Aviation accident statistics only covers fixed-wing general aviation aircraft weighing 12,500 pounds or less. It says there were only 10 in all of 2007!
Surprisingly these 10 mid-air collisions involving 20 different aircraft with 21 pilots and passengers resulted in only 4 deaths. Two of the mid-air collisions were by four aircraft involved in formation flight.
The fact mid-air collisions may be survivable is rarely written or talked about. In 2007, there were a total of 17 survivors from six different mid-airs involving 12 aircraft!
My flight career took of in January of 1961 when I first soloed a Piper PA-12 Super Cruiser as a member of the Kent State University Flying Club. I began to fly for Trans World Airlines in 1964. First as a co-pilot on the Lockheed Constellation and finally as a Boeing 747 captain. Along the way I accumulated a lot of flight time over the next 50 years.
In that 50 year period of time, I never experienced a close call from a mid-air collision. Why?
The continental United States is comprised of 3 million square miles. If the airspace to a level of 10 miles is available to be used by all aircraft the available amount of airspace is 30 million cubic miles. This is a heck of a lot of airspace or another way of saying it is to say: "It is a big sky!"
Now how many aircraft are using the big sky at the same time? Today, it is possible to obtain the answer from a web site that counts aircraft in the air called FlightAware.com. I just went to the web site and right now (Sunday, May 22, 2010 at 7:30 PM there are 3,672 airborne aircraft including 205 which are operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR).
The highest number of aircraft that are in the air at the same time counted by FlightAware is 5,650.
Assuming the aircraft were distributed in only half the available airspace or 15 million cubic miles it would mean each aircraft has approximately 3,000 cubic miles or a space 20 miles long, 20 miles wide and 7 miles high.
This is the primary reason for the lack of mid-air collisions. The Big Sky!
What role does Air Traffic Control play in mid-air collision prevention?
Another little talked about and written about is the possibility that it might play a negative role meaning ATC procedures may actually contribute to the mid-air collision issue.
ATC will normally assign aircraft to fly along an established airway such as Victor 210 separating us by altitude, lateral and longitudinal separations and watched over by radar. If either an air traffic controller or a pilot makes a mistake in the altitude flown or assigned, a mid-air collision is much more likely to happen due to the traffic being compacted by the present system.
In the real world, it means they are actually packing us closer together than if random flight paths were being flown by each aircraft. Normal vertical separation between Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) aircraft is just 1,000 feet. The normal vertical separation between IFR traffic and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) traffic is just 500 feet.
As a result of being aware of these facts, I will admit to not ever being overly concerned about mid-air collisions while I am flying my airplane.
What level of mid-air collision concern to you experience while flying your plane?
By the way, there is a matter of certainty about a comet hitting the earth at some point in the future and wiping out all life forms.
Do you worry much about it happening?
"What me worry?"
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but how many times have things gotten a little close?
I've asked myself that. flying since 1975. 737 captain for a US major now, but came up the hard way.
I can think of 4 times that things got close and not just a little bit close...but close enough to have nightmares about years later. close enough to suck in air through your teeth.
Providence or big sky?
well...keep your eyes open, your TCAS on, your transponder on, your lights on. listen and get the picture from ATC radio calls.
Challenge ATC when you hear something that doesn't make sense, like:
you are cleared to land on 9Right...United Heavy 623, you are cleared for takeoff on 27 Left.
And injun country, is still injun country.
I've asked myself that. flying since 1975. 737 captain for a US major now, but came up the hard way.
I can think of 4 times that things got close and not just a little bit close...but close enough to have nightmares about years later. close enough to suck in air through your teeth.
Providence or big sky?
well...keep your eyes open, your TCAS on, your transponder on, your lights on. listen and get the picture from ATC radio calls.
Challenge ATC when you hear something that doesn't make sense, like:
you are cleared to land on 9Right...United Heavy 623, you are cleared for takeoff on 27 Left.
And injun country, is still injun country.
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I rarely say this, but you are crazy.
I suspect you have come close on more than a few occasions and simply did not see the other airplane. I have personally had a couple of dozen real close calls (I saw the individual fires inside the burner can one time and got less than 30 feet away from a Speedbird with 400 passengers one night over Kabul (ATC error), just to mention two of them.
On more than one occasion I identified the other airplane and asked the pilot if he had seen me and he said no. He wasn't looking.
In the airlines I found many fellow pilots who flew with their cockpit lights full bright all the time at night, meaning that they would not be able to see anything outside even if they looked.
In one airline I flew for management had to put out a memo ordering the pilots not to use newspaper when covering the windscreens by day, because the print was hard to remove from the glass! They then used the thin paper tray covers from the passengers meal trays, which would stay nicely on the glass using static cling. You could see the reverse of the airline logo on the glass.
I have lost many good personal friends and acquaintances to mid air collisions and it is the first thing I tell my daughter to watch for, she is leaning to fly gliders and powered aircraft. She is right now at a glider camp, thermalling with two or three other gliders in the same thermal, with a busy commuter air corridor going through the same area.
I teach my GA students to use their shadows, check for an intruder in their vicinity. I have spotted many such conflicts and avoided them by doing this. I would no more fly around without watching diligently for other traffic than I would put my head in a microwave while it was running.
I flew three times in the last few days and had to maneuver on all of them to avoid traffic. One flight was IFR. I was not using TCAS or any aid other than lookout. If I had not been looking out, maybe I would not have hit the other guy, and there have been times when I spotted the other airplane too late to make any avoiding moves, but was lucky not to hit it. I suspect there is a majority of pilots out there who simply have no clue, on this or any other subject concerning true flight safety. They usually end up in management.
If you think it is not a problem then all I can say is God protects fools.
Or if it is a joke, pardon me for not seeing the humour.
I suspect you have come close on more than a few occasions and simply did not see the other airplane. I have personally had a couple of dozen real close calls (I saw the individual fires inside the burner can one time and got less than 30 feet away from a Speedbird with 400 passengers one night over Kabul (ATC error), just to mention two of them.
On more than one occasion I identified the other airplane and asked the pilot if he had seen me and he said no. He wasn't looking.
In the airlines I found many fellow pilots who flew with their cockpit lights full bright all the time at night, meaning that they would not be able to see anything outside even if they looked.
In one airline I flew for management had to put out a memo ordering the pilots not to use newspaper when covering the windscreens by day, because the print was hard to remove from the glass! They then used the thin paper tray covers from the passengers meal trays, which would stay nicely on the glass using static cling. You could see the reverse of the airline logo on the glass.
I have lost many good personal friends and acquaintances to mid air collisions and it is the first thing I tell my daughter to watch for, she is leaning to fly gliders and powered aircraft. She is right now at a glider camp, thermalling with two or three other gliders in the same thermal, with a busy commuter air corridor going through the same area.
I teach my GA students to use their shadows, check for an intruder in their vicinity. I have spotted many such conflicts and avoided them by doing this. I would no more fly around without watching diligently for other traffic than I would put my head in a microwave while it was running.
I flew three times in the last few days and had to maneuver on all of them to avoid traffic. One flight was IFR. I was not using TCAS or any aid other than lookout. If I had not been looking out, maybe I would not have hit the other guy, and there have been times when I spotted the other airplane too late to make any avoiding moves, but was lucky not to hit it. I suspect there is a majority of pilots out there who simply have no clue, on this or any other subject concerning true flight safety. They usually end up in management.
If you think it is not a problem then all I can say is God protects fools.
Or if it is a joke, pardon me for not seeing the humour.
rsiano 
airspace classification more than 12 nm off shore
Hi,
I am an instructor teaching International Procedures Recurrent at FlightSafety Teterboro.
I am searching for an answer to this question...
airspace classification more than 12 nm off shore Hi,
I am an instructor teaching International Procedures Recurrent at FlightSafety Teterboro.
I am searching for an answer to this question...
rsiano: Mid-air collisions too rare to worry about!
franzl
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Holes in the Swiss cheese
Collisions in cruise happen now & then; Grand Canyon, Yugoslavia, India and Brazil come to mind. The first three were with older-generation nav and autopilot, which placed the flight path error on the order of a good fraction of a mile. Thus even if two aircraft were routed on a collision course, there was still a good chance of a miss - maybe with neither aircraft observing the other. The cheese holes are unlikely to line up, but occasionally they did.
The Brazil GOL/Legacy accident was quite different: The ATC error, coupled with RNP on two new/nearly-new aircraft, and neither aircraft using SLOP, meant the hole in the last slice of Swiss cheese was virtually certain to line up w/the other slices.
Which scenario will predominate henceforth? The proof is left to the student.
The Brazil GOL/Legacy accident was quite different: The ATC error, coupled with RNP on two new/nearly-new aircraft, and neither aircraft using SLOP, meant the hole in the last slice of Swiss cheese was virtually certain to line up w/the other slices.
Which scenario will predominate henceforth? The proof is left to the student.
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Just a SLF, but it seems pretty obvious that the whole "big sky" calculation falls apart anywhere near an airport. I knew a flight instructor who was killed in a mid-air, along with her student pilot, back in 1989 just after turning downwind while departing Oakland North Field. Classic high-wing/low-wing situation.
I have had lots of close-encounters but only two heart-stopping events in my 50 years of flying.
The worst one was when I was in the right seat of one of Mrs Windsor's new Argosy transports. At the moment in question, I was in the right seat acting as "lookout" and PNF. My leader (LHS) was on instruments practising coming off an NDB hold in a left turn. The weather was CAVOK
He had overcooked the turn on to the ILS (left turn) so rolled the wings level to attack the centreline. Suddenly, the windscreen was FILLED with a BOAC VC-10.
I took control and try to dive to the right but it was a complete waste of time for everything had gone into "slow motion" mode.
I saw the F/O in the VC-10 (staring ahead) and counted almost every cabin window passing me in slow motion and finally read G-AVRH off the tail bullet as it went past. Strangely, I don't remember seeing the wing tip going past.
We landed very quickly and went down to the local pub for a nervous breakdown!
At the subsequent Board of Inquiry, I was challenged about how I knew which VC-10 I had seen and, when I responded that I had read G-ARVH off the tail bullet, it was agreed that that must have been bl**dy close!
I dreamed about that incident for some years afterwards.
When you can see another aeroplane getting close, that is not a near miss.
When you encounter another aircraft and it doesn't matter what you do or it does but you still just miss, THAT is a near miss.
The worst one was when I was in the right seat of one of Mrs Windsor's new Argosy transports. At the moment in question, I was in the right seat acting as "lookout" and PNF. My leader (LHS) was on instruments practising coming off an NDB hold in a left turn. The weather was CAVOK
He had overcooked the turn on to the ILS (left turn) so rolled the wings level to attack the centreline. Suddenly, the windscreen was FILLED with a BOAC VC-10.
I took control and try to dive to the right but it was a complete waste of time for everything had gone into "slow motion" mode.
I saw the F/O in the VC-10 (staring ahead) and counted almost every cabin window passing me in slow motion and finally read G-AVRH off the tail bullet as it went past. Strangely, I don't remember seeing the wing tip going past.
We landed very quickly and went down to the local pub for a nervous breakdown!
At the subsequent Board of Inquiry, I was challenged about how I knew which VC-10 I had seen and, when I responded that I had read G-ARVH off the tail bullet, it was agreed that that must have been bl**dy close!
I dreamed about that incident for some years afterwards.
When you can see another aeroplane getting close, that is not a near miss.
When you encounter another aircraft and it doesn't matter what you do or it does but you still just miss, THAT is a near miss.
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Worry, damn straight.
This one happened right over my house.
Impacted just a couple of block away.
Inbound LAX.
Aeroméxico Flight 498 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Impacted just a couple of block away.
Inbound LAX.
Aeroméxico Flight 498 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Read the opening paragraphs of Ernie Gann's "Fate Is The Hunter". 
Fair warning #1: You won't be able to put the book down.
Fair warning #2: Forget the movie. Gann disowned it, & sued to have his name removed from the credits.
Fair warning #1: You won't be able to put the book down.
Fair warning #2: Forget the movie. Gann disowned it, & sued to have his name removed from the credits.
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"Fate Is the Hunter" is the best book about being a professional pilot that has ever been written. Ernie was a friend, and I even once co-flew a DC-3 with him, for an article I wrote for Flying Magazine.
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Fate is the Hunter
Hi,
Yep, I have read Fate is the Hunter at least 5 times. One of the greatest flying books ever written!
By the way, my post was a serious attempt to look at mid-air collisions from an unconventional point of view and not an attempt at humor.
There exists no accepted definition for a "near miss". It is un-definable - you either collide or you miss. There is no in between situation. Kind of like trying to say "almost pregnant." You either are or you aren't.
Thanks for the comments! Keep them coming.
Dick
Yep, I have read Fate is the Hunter at least 5 times. One of the greatest flying books ever written!
By the way, my post was a serious attempt to look at mid-air collisions from an unconventional point of view and not an attempt at humor.
There exists no accepted definition for a "near miss". It is un-definable - you either collide or you miss. There is no in between situation. Kind of like trying to say "almost pregnant." You either are or you aren't.
Thanks for the comments! Keep them coming.
Dick
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My uncle got killed in one. Tell your theory to his 4 kids and widow.
Years later as an SIC we had a near miss with a Cessna 500, Jack, who was on ONA DC-10 at JFK (other pilots said Jack had a "black cloud" over his head) back at base while doing the paper work for our trip Jack said it was extactly 25 years to the day that he was involed in USAF B-25 midair. He said the plane disintegrated around huim and he pulled his ripcord.
Years later as an SIC we had a near miss with a Cessna 500, Jack, who was on ONA DC-10 at JFK (other pilots said Jack had a "black cloud" over his head) back at base while doing the paper work for our trip Jack said it was extactly 25 years to the day that he was involed in USAF B-25 midair. He said the plane disintegrated around huim and he pulled his ripcord.
Last edited by ATPMBA; 4th Jun 2010 at 22:48.
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"close calls"
Hi,
What is your definition of a "close call?" Or would you like to define the term "near miss?" I apologize if I offended you by offering my in depth and long standing experience of never having a "near miss." I can only report to you what I actually experienced.
Thanks for your comments. Keep them coming.
Dick
What is your definition of a "close call?" Or would you like to define the term "near miss?" I apologize if I offended you by offering my in depth and long standing experience of never having a "near miss." I can only report to you what I actually experienced.
Thanks for your comments. Keep them coming.
Dick
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first off:
"Fate is the Hunter" the book, is great.
second off: gann regreted disowning "Fate is the Hunter" the movie as it would and did cost him lots of money in royalties from TV viewings. I like the movie, but I do understand why many pilots don't like it. And I even spilled coffee once and it did matter!
Third off: I know two people who did survive mid airs...and not the same one. but it shook them up and sort of changed them forever...and not for the better.
"Fate is the Hunter" the book, is great.
second off: gann regreted disowning "Fate is the Hunter" the movie as it would and did cost him lots of money in royalties from TV viewings. I like the movie, but I do understand why many pilots don't like it. And I even spilled coffee once and it did matter!
Third off: I know two people who did survive mid airs...and not the same one. but it shook them up and sort of changed them forever...and not for the better.
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This bloke has obviously never flown an 'airplane' using GPS navigation, a 'quantum leap' in aviation safety (not!) that has shrunk the 'big sky' to clearly defined narrow lane with an almost assured collision should just one person among many get it wrong. Brazil last year comes immediately to mind.
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FATE is the HUNTER is dated.
Who wants to read about iced up DC-3's flying over the Applachians or a Capt. lighting matches under somone's nose during a 4 course range approach, heck smoking is banned nowadays.
We want the RH seat of a Barbie Jet at 250 hours TT and sneak in our Ipods to listen to music during cruise.
BTW- I'm just being sarcastic. My old boss ex-USAF, not that Jack guy met Ernie Gann at a lecture/seminar and said he was the the most intersting aviation guy he ever met. My old boss was SAC and ran the USAF DC-9 Medivac program for a long time.
Who wants to read about iced up DC-3's flying over the Applachians or a Capt. lighting matches under somone's nose during a 4 course range approach, heck smoking is banned nowadays.
We want the RH seat of a Barbie Jet at 250 hours TT and sneak in our Ipods to listen to music during cruise.
BTW- I'm just being sarcastic. My old boss ex-USAF, not that Jack guy met Ernie Gann at a lecture/seminar and said he was the the most intersting aviation guy he ever met. My old boss was SAC and ran the USAF DC-9 Medivac program for a long time.
Following a class act troll by aviationluver in JB, I wonder if this is another?
FTR:
London TMA 1968 - in cloud - happen to glance right just a B727 silhouette climbs rapidly through our level - very close. ATC apologised for error.
Somewhere in Europe about 2000 - on intercept heading with aircraft climbing from below with clearance to level 1000ft below us - continued climbing through cleared level - I initiated climb to avoid.
Non radio grass field takeoff in taildragger - tw^t doing out of wind demo forces me to stick it on the ground again as he almost takes my fin off.
Those are the incidents I detected and can remember.
FTR:
London TMA 1968 - in cloud - happen to glance right just a B727 silhouette climbs rapidly through our level - very close. ATC apologised for error.
Somewhere in Europe about 2000 - on intercept heading with aircraft climbing from below with clearance to level 1000ft below us - continued climbing through cleared level - I initiated climb to avoid.
Non radio grass field takeoff in taildragger - tw^t doing out of wind demo forces me to stick it on the ground again as he almost takes my fin off.
Those are the incidents I detected and can remember.
ATPMBA & protectthehornet
At the age of 12, I witnessed the aftermath of the collision of a EAL Connie and TWA B707 near the CMK VOR; the Connie broke out of the clouds overhead, fluttered around barely under control until crash landing about 2 miles away. At 33, I used one McAir's finest products, the ACES II seat, to get rid of the wreckage of my A-10 after it was hit very nearly head-on by a squadron mate in an A-10. I sincerely hope that is the end of my experiences with the subject.
To the original poster: surely, you gest. The very nature of planes going to and from airports limits the available airspace a great deal. Hell, the RN and the French Navy managed to collide two subs together under the open ocean. And how many subs are in the Atlantic at one time--two dozen? And the Atlantic is a helluva lot bigger than the USA and far fewer vehicles to worry about.
GF
At the age of 12, I witnessed the aftermath of the collision of a EAL Connie and TWA B707 near the CMK VOR; the Connie broke out of the clouds overhead, fluttered around barely under control until crash landing about 2 miles away. At 33, I used one McAir's finest products, the ACES II seat, to get rid of the wreckage of my A-10 after it was hit very nearly head-on by a squadron mate in an A-10. I sincerely hope that is the end of my experiences with the subject.
To the original poster: surely, you gest. The very nature of planes going to and from airports limits the available airspace a great deal. Hell, the RN and the French Navy managed to collide two subs together under the open ocean. And how many subs are in the Atlantic at one time--two dozen? And the Atlantic is a helluva lot bigger than the USA and far fewer vehicles to worry about.
GF