Air France A330-200 missing

[cavok73]

IMHO a total eletrical failure (loss of ALL eletrical buses) is as dangerous in an Airbus than it is in a 747 or any given No Manual Reversion Aircraft.

Without eletrical power the hydraulics pumps do not pump, the plane looses control.

[Checkboard]

Even if there is an area of 400NM of CBs - you cannot fly through. Flying through a core of a CB means certain death.

Obviously not true. I have flown (inadvertently) through two thunderstorms in standard jets, and they are (usually) survivable. NASA has flown hardened aircraft through many thunderstorms. While they may have enough turbulence to overload an airframe, it certainly isn't a certainty.

The forecast and satellite pictures of the area are not unusual, the comments here seem a bit overstated.

Having said that, I would still put my money on an in-flight break-up in turbulence rather than a lightning strike.

[TvB]

earlier on this thread were some messages about prior damage during a wing strike while taxiing. Were has this gone? When was that and any knowledge about the repairs performed? Any other information about technical difficulties on this particular plane?

first reports were indicating also a short circuit. So could probably arcing have occured and thereby a fire in the electronical system or along the wires? Could a lightnig strike damage vital wires or induce arcing thereby leading to an inflight fire?

Comments are appreciated.

[win_faa]

Total electrical failure particularly on the Airbus A330 would result in the RAT being deployed autmoatically to power flight critical equipment like radio, flight controls etc. unless in the case of AF the RAT also fails :(

[Lost in Saigon]

Aircraft get hit by lightning everyday.

Aircraft also accidentally fly through thunderstorms more often than you think. Every high time pilot has one or two stories to tell.

My point is this accident is not simply weather related. There has to be a lot more to the story.

[ix_touring]

Doubts over lightning's role in missing jetliner | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL1719357)

Reuters reporting 2 flights on the same/similar tracks, one 30 mins ahead, on e2 hours later (and to the south):

"It had been preceded safely on the same track 30 minutes earlier by a Boeing 747-400 heading to Frankfurt for Lufthansa, according to a source with access to data transmitted from jetliners for the World Meteorological Organisation.

Two hours later an MD-11 cargo plane also flown by Lufthansa passed just south of the same spot on the way to West Africa, the source told Reuters, asking not to be identified."

iX

[eliptic]

checkboard

You not alone think soo

"Analysis: turbulence, not lightning, most likely cause of Air France crash"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6407081.ece

[TheBeak]

earlier on this thread were some messages about prior damage during a wing strike while taxiing. Were has this gone? When was that and any knowledge about the repairs performed? Any other information about technical difficulties on this particular plane?


DATE: 17.08.2006 LOCAL TIME: - LOCATION: Paris-CDG Intl AP (LFPG) COUNTRY: France
AIRLINE1: Air France TYPE: Airbus A321-211 REGISTRATION: F-GTAM C/N: 1859 AGE: 3 y + 9 m
AIRLINE2: Air France TYPE: Airbus A330-203 REGISTRATION: F-GZCP C/N: 660 AGE: 1 y + 5 m
OPERATION:1 ISP FLIGHT No.: - FROM: Paris-CDG TO: Rome-FCO VIA: -
OPERATION2: ISP FLIGHT No.: - FROM: Paris-CDG TO: Ouagadougou VIA: -
OCCUPANTS1: PAX: - CREW: x
FATALITIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
INJURIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
DAMAGE TO AIRCRAFT: minor
OCCUPANTS2: PAX: - CREW: x
FATALITIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
INJURIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
DAMAGE TO AIRCRAFT: minor
Both aircraft suffered damage in a ground collision at Charles de Gaulle Airport. The tail of the A321 was substantially damaged when it was hit by the taxiing A330. Damage to the latter was considered as minor.
SOURCE(S): -


taken from:

http://www.jacdec.de/news/years/ALL2006.txt

Based upon what has been said about an electrical problem perhaps my thoughts on a latent structural failure are not likely.

[win_faa]

One thing is a fact as per Air France stated..."Huge catastrophic failure" Pilots were not able to send any distress call, or even if they do send distress call nobody hears them, that only means one thing the events happen so fast that not even the crew could take immediate distress call, even with just a flick of a button :(

[wes_wall]

Retuers reports-"Air France (AIRF.PA) said the Airbus (EAD.PA) A330 plane had hit stormy weather and "strong turbulence" and a spokesman said it could have been hit by lightning."

How does AF know this to be true. Was there any report from the airplane prior to gone missing? The cockpit is the only one who knows about turbulence.

[XPMorten]

150-300Mb Divergence for 03:00 UTC, Jun 01

http://www.xplanefreeware.net/morten/DIV/turb3.GIF

[Menorcaman]

Of all that I´ve read in this very long thread - this is the most likely scenario!. The dreaded UP following loss of spatial awareness following a CB entry, at night (and violent turb.) with everything possible going wrong with instruments/electrics/systems - nightmare! All the hours of experience in the world won´t mean a thing if you can´t "fly the beast" .
Sounds a bit doomsayerish I know - but it has and, no doubt will continue, to happen in both civil and military aviation globally.

[ECAM_Actions]

Another IRU fault resulting in sudden departure from controlled flight?

Several months ago an A330 transiting across Australia suffered a transient electrical fault in IRU1. It caused AP1 to think the aircraft had pitched down ~40 degrees. Needless to say it pitched up in response. Fortunately they recovered and the aircraft landed safely after diverting.

I wonder if this did similar, only in the opposite sense? :eek:



ECAM Actions.

[cavok73]

But about 4:15 a.m. Paris time, Flight 447's automatic system began afour-minute exchange of messages to the company's maintenancecomputers, indicating that "several pieces of aircraft equipment wereat fault or had broken down," he said."This succession of messages signals a totally unforeseeable, greatdifficulty," he said. "Something quite new within the plane.""It was probable that it was a little bit after those messages thatthe impact of the plane took place in the Atlantic," he added.4 minutes broadcast! :bored:

[dixi188]

CAVOK 73

"Without eletrical power the hydraulics pumps do not pump, the plane looses control."

NOT SO!

EDPs still work without electrics.

Non "FLY BY WIRE" aircraft can still be flown without any electrics.

Airbuses from A320 onwards need some electrics to operate flying controls.

[Lost in Saigon]

Retuers reports-"Air France (AIRF.PA) said the Airbus (EAD.PA) A330 plane had hit stormy weather and "strong turbulence" and a spokesman said it could have been hit by lightning."

How does AF know this to be true. Was there any report from the airplane prior to gone missing? The cockpit is the only one who knows about turbulence.

It is curious to see Air France giving all these details and yet they give no evidence to back up all these "theories".

Most Airlines would express their condolences and then decline further comment until the facts were more clear.

What's up with Air France?

[Airbubba]

_ 7:03 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane left Rio de Janeiro. Brazilian Air Force says plane left at 7:30 p.m.

Possibly a numerical transposition error or more likely the usual confusion of 'out' versus 'off' time. Years ago some wacko wrote a conspiracy theory book about the Lockerbie crash and used this discrepancy to help 'prove' his conjecture.

The final ACARS messages were sent well out of VHF range it appears, they would be sent with HFDL or Satcomm. HFDL messages can be read thousands of miles away and normally contain position data, I've used Charles Brain's PC-HFDL program to track planes off the coast of Africa from the U.S. with a computer and HF receiver.

[win_faa]

Jesus Christ! CNN has pprune already in the news!:{

[Huck]

Beware, fellows.

CNN World literally has PPrune pulled up on a computer, reading posts off this very thread, live.

Incredible. Tread carefully.

[MM6473]

Worrying thought that the media use Pprune for info, considering that most people on here will be as ill informed as themselves. I do hope that they don't use any speculation as fact, but my faith in the media can't stretch that far.

Until the plane is found or the FDR all we can do is speculate, which I think is certainly interesting to see all the many various scenarios that are played out on here and the media. I am in no way an expert (still only a humble student of the sky) but watching some of the muppets that they have standing outside the airport reporting you do wonder what planet they are from and where on earth they grab some of the cod s*it.......

Looking forward to many an interesting theory,

MM6473

[Doors to Automatic]

I would put my money on a +ve lightning strike? Anyone agree?

[Sgnr de L'Atlantique]

In cases like this, unfounded speculation can be dangerous, especially with CNN quoting this site!

Many of us here have 1000s of hours in A330. Many of us have been in the middle of squall lines, thunderstorms and the ITCZ.

While these weather phenomena are to be respected by pilots, only very few cases are known whereby they bring down an airliner.

Myself I have witnessed several cases of being hit by a lightning strike in Airbus FBW aircraft (A320/330/340). I lost a radome, I had holes larger than a watermelon burned in my stabiliser, on one incident I had 56 entry and exit holes in the fuselage.

But NEVER ever did I loose control of the aircraft! Sure, you will get a transient power glitch but that is it! Screens come back in a matter of seconds, computers stay on line.

Remember, an airplane acts as a FARADAYS cage whereby the electronic loads stay on the outside of the cage!

The same goes for turbulence. An aircraft like the A330 can withstand a tremendous amount of stress. Just go and look on youtube and search for stress test airplane wing. So in order to have a modern airliner breaking up by turbulence you really need extreme forces, forces very very rarely encountered.

So please, give the crew as well as the manufacturer some credit. Millions of people have flown these aircraft for thousands of hours without incident.

AF pilots are very well trained and this crew had lots of experience.

So something catastrophically happened here, that's for sure, but please refrain from jumping to conclusions too fast. The world is watching!

For those of you using this incident as another Boeing vs Airbus bashing, you should think again. This is not the time nor the place to do so!

[Pinkman]

The French are an intensely proud nation and can be very determined in something like this. They also have a fine engineering & technology tradition and in previous air accidents where French nationals were involved (eg Flash Airlines 604 - Egypt) have gone to extreme lengths to recover the FDR & CVR. In that case they had a Navy salvage ship and ROV on site and the recorders recovered within two weeks - pretty impressive, although the depth was 'only' 1000m.

If the debris field is found, they will be on the case faster than you can say 'Jacques Cousteau' and if there is even a remote chance the DRs can be recovered, they will get them.

[MM6473]

Sgnr de L'Atlantique :D

[q100]

Does the A330 ACARS used by AF (or whatever equipment that was sending the MX messages to company) include position info in its transmissions? I've done some pretty significant (100+ mile) deviations around WX, and it occurs to me that if AF447 was doing the same, unless the A/C was sending position info via satellite, the potential search area could be pretty big indeed.

Not good.

Q.

[Harolds]

Can somebody tell what system on the aircraft detects a system failure (ie pressuraization, electrical etc) and then sends an off-airrcraft message? Is this via ACARS? Are all fault messages sent from the aircraft?

[Confabulous]

If thunderstorms were present in the area, then why did the crew decide to fly through them? Aren't crews briefed about thunderstorms during the pre-flight briefing? I thought pilots have been advised not to fly through thunderstorms as it may jeopardize the safety and operation of the flight and aircraft?

The WX radar might not have been functioning, the brightness might have been turned down. Thunderstorms can form in 30 minutes or less.

[eagle21]

ECAM Another IRU fault resulting in sudden departure from controlled flight?

Several months ago an A330 transiting across Australia suffered a transient electrical fault in IRU1. It caused AP1 to think the aircraft had pitched down ~40 degrees. Needless to say it pitched up in response. Fortunately they recovered and the aircraft landed safely after diverting.

I wonder if this did similar, only in the opposite sense

Very valid observation.


Could anyone comment on the chances of a lighting strike affecting an ADIRU?

Also FCOM specifies that pressure system controllers on this type get information from the ADIRU , could a malfunction on one of the ADIRU's lead to a decompression?

[G-BHEN]

CB = Cumulonimbus, in layman's terms it's one of those massive storm clouds that tower into the sky. They can contain all sorts of nasties, hail, windshear, rain, all in the space of seconds.

Take a look at Cumulonimbus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulonimbus_cloud) for some pics.

Cheers
Noel

[q100]

Also, should a really big area of T-Storms form rapidly, sometimes you can find yourself in the middle of what was a clear path, only now you are surrounded by huge CBs (cumulo nimbus clouds).

My first lightning strike was in a cloud (at night) that the radar was only showing as green (light precip.). After the lightning it got pretty rough. We figured we must have run into a cell that was just going from build-up to mature stage.

Onboard weather radar is a useful tool, but certainly has its limitations.

Q

[Sgnr de L'Atlantique]

To assume that the AF crew was operating this flight, transatlantic and during night, with the WX radar turned of or without monitoring any WX radar returns is an insult for the crew, an insult for all of us professional pilots!

These pilots where professionals, trained for 100s of hours with a vast experience.

So NO, the WX radar off theory does not FLY!

What happened here is a domino effect of events, leading to a disaster! You can be sure of that!

[Lost in Saigon]

Just have a look at the timeline, first radar contact was lost, afterwards the maintenance messages were sent.



Radar contact was not "Lost". AF447 simply transitioned to an area of non-Radar coverage. They did not make the proper radio calls to report their position, but there are many possible reasons for this.

[Checkboard]

Four minutes from 35,000 feet is over 8,000 feet per minute. If the report was triggered by the same event that caused the aircraft loss, that's a rate of descent faster than would be achieved by the pilots in an intact aircraft in an emergency descent.

It would also be no surprise that no radio calls were received, as the pilots wouldn't be wearing radio headsets in HF airspace (you only put them on if you are called over SELCAL, or intend to transmit a position report.)

[peter we]

Well, nobody here knows what was the cause. Idol speculation is pretty harmless, but the only clue, until the aircraft is found, is the ACARS messages.

The CEO of AF says its to early to know what happened.

I think it will take years to find out for sure.

[win_faa]

PPRuNe is again shown on the background screen of CNN news anchor Richard Quest, I guess he's reading it, I wonder what his username is? :}

[i-Robot]

If the AF 330 had a SATCOM system then they would be utilising FANS am I right. The entire Atlantic is covered by a FANS system from Santa Maria, Atlantico, SAL and New York area.

Otherwise it would be only an HF/VHF system. but, if technical information is sent via the aircraft AIMS to maintenance then I'm assuming that there was a satellite link up or ACARS link up. Then from the last ACARS message or FANS position the aircraft's last position can be fixed within an hour flying radius...

Any ideas?

[Airbubba]

It would also be no surprise that no radio calls were received, as the pilots wouldn't be wearing radio headsets in HF airspace (you only put them on if you are called over SELCAL, or intend to transmit a position report.)

Depends on where you work I suppose. I and many of my colleagues wear those designer noise cancelling headsets out over the water. Also, a hand mike is readily available at each crew station. We normally have 121.5 in one VHF, 123.45 in the other and ACARS on the third one.

We have ATC on one HF, HFDL on the other one.

[DC-ATE]

Thunderstorms. IF (big IF) this was the cause (we'll probably never know for sure) of this, it's a shame. When will pilots EVER learn to respect thunderstorms ?!?! Thunderstorms have claimed far too many aircraft and lives already. There is absolutely NO excuse to be anywhere near those things.....especially in the middle of an ocean!

[The Actuator]

Checkboard
It would also be no surprise that no radio calls were received, as the pilots wouldn't be wearing radio headsets in HF airspace (you only put them on if you are called over SELCAL, or intend to transmit a position report.)

This is just an example of silly, misinformed posts on this thread. Pilots still listen out even in HF airspace by means of a loudspeaker and making a transmission is as simple as grabbing a hand held mike. They would have been tuned to 123.45 and 121.5 and able to transmit on both at any time.

I am not sure my priority when dealing with a malfunctioning aircraft in these particular airspaces would be communicating with a difficult to reach ATCO. Comms with Atlantico are notoriously poor and they would have been out of range of both SAL and Dakar (VHF), the latter sharing the poor comms status. HF contact with most of these ATC centres is problematic due congestion and various other factors. CPDLC is available now on a trial basis with Dakar, whether it was used, or if it was, whether it was being monitored will be investigated I am sure.

Unless one is sure of what one is writing here why on earth would one bother to post?

This is a sad event - no doubt not caused by one isolated fact.

[Sgnr de L'Atlantique]

Pilots DO respect thunderstorms, believe you me!

[emjanssen]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/IFG12-02452009152.jpg

[EchoIndiaFoxtrot]

According to the BBC, it would appear that the French have asked the Americans if their super spy satellites managed to pick up the last known position and also to see what the wx position was.

[mercurydancer]

AF appear to be very professional in their response to this awful catastrophe. Good disaster management is being shown by AF and the French government.

I know the server is struggling at the moment so I wont elaborate but AF's approach is highly professional

[Mephistopheles]

The A330 can be flown quite well on the RAT, especially in it is being powered by the hydraulic engine pumps i.e. you will still have AP1, WX radar. Unfortunately, as is usual whatever occurred will have been a seris of events.
Are AF330's fitted with Northrop Grummon-Litton ADIRUs?

[private777]

Flying over the atlantic in the middle of the night (to be fair the moon is currently 68% full) in the middle of towering CBs is a stressful situation but hardly uncommon. Crashes are hardly ever the result of only one thing gone wrong. The crew might have been trying to navigate around towering CBs or might have decided to fly into one and as a result were probably battling severe turbulence. Now to a very stressful situation add another problem, temporary loss of electrical power (whether caused by lightning strike or another undetermined factor) which would have caused the AP to disconnect, forcing the crew, on top of all the other issues they were having to deal with to manually fly the aircraft. A temporary loss of spacial orientation might have led to a complete loss of control which could have been impossible to recover from. All speculation of course at this stage.

[mercurydancer]

hotelmode.

Highly cynical comment but I'm cynical too.

AF appear to have put in crisis centres before the news hit the TV screens... highly important for the relatives.

Theya re also being very up front about what sparse information they have, again it keeps speculation (which can run in odd directions) to a minimum.

[Flyinheavy]

To DC-ATE:


What makes You possibly think and write such a nonsense?

I do not know any pilot in an airline cockpit who would knowingly fly into a storm cell.

I remember one day Peking ATC would deny me to avoid WX and turn to the right of track. I just did it. I think we are paid for taking decisions and not to let ATC or stupidity guide us into harms way.

If it happened there must have been a reason for it.......

[INTEL101]

That's a pretty nasty looking orange spot out there in the mid-atlantic on that equatorial string of storms. Might not look much from 22,500 miles but if you're right on top of it that is something else. These things can bubble up at night if the water temp is greater than 80 Farenheit.

Wire mesh to redirect a lightningbolt? Designed in accordance with FAA regulations? Brought to you by the same free market Capitol Hill lobbyists who watered down the SEC? yeah right.

[abby5638]

AFP reports at AFP: Air France flight vanishes after multiple breakdowns (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gjy9rZCcmQTIFRwF7N-N9mfoUVyw)

A succession of a dozen technical messages" sent by the aircraft around 0215 GMT showed that "several electrical systems had broken down" which caused a totally unprecedented situation in the plane," said Pierre-Henry Gourgeon.

"It is probable that it was shortly after these messages that the impact in the Atlantic came," he told reporters at Charles de Gaulle airport where the flight was meant to have landed on Monday morning.

And Daily Kos relates at Daily Kos: Air France Flight 447 presumed lost in Atlantic (UPDATED 2X) (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/1/737687/-Air-France-Flight-447-presumed-lost-in-Atlantic) :
CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/01/air.france.brazil/index.html) quotes Gourgeon about what may be Flight 447's last moments before it lost contact.
The first three hours of what was to have been an 11-hour flight appear to have been uneventful, CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon said.
But about 4:15 a.m. Paris time, Flight 447's automatic system began a four-minute exchange of messages to the company's maintenance computers, indicating that "several pieces of aircraft equipment were at fault or had broken down," he said.
"This succession of messages signals a totally unforeseeable, great difficulty," he said. "Something quite new within the plane."
During that time, there was no contact with the crew, Gourgeon said.
"It was probable that it was a little bit after those messages that the impact of the plane took place in the Atlantic," he added.
I obviously don't know if this is accurate, but 12 messages over 4 minutes would seem to relate a lot more than we've heard so far.

[Steve Michell]

I'm an airline Captain with hundreds of ITCZ crossings. Believe me, it'll keep you awake.
In darkness with all that lightning going on around them they would've surely have the Weather radar on and noses glued to the windshield to look outside.
Proper use of Weather radar is difficult and needs practice, but, considering the experience of those pilots you can be sure that that was covered.
Looking at the Sat plots of the weather at their datalink message to their maintenance base you can determine they were in the middle of the worst weather on the planet at time of transmission.
No, a lightning strike will NOT bring any plane down. But I have heard of cases where it wrecked the (only) weather radar antenna on board. And that would have been like the worse place and moment to loose that piece of equipment.
Funny, really, if you ask me. With all redundancy on board there's actually only ONE weather radar antenna that shares it's signal with two independent weather radar computers. I've had a case of loosing that single antenna in Take off from MIA in horrendous weather. Luckily for me and my passengers Miami radar gave me precise heading instructions to stay clear of those huge showers. I guess AF447 was not that lucky there....

[Iceman49]

DC-ATE Thunderstorms. IF (big IF) this was the cause (we'll probably never know for sure) of this, it's a shame. When will pilots EVER learn to respect thunderstorms ?!?! Thunderstorms have claimed far too many aircraft and lives already. There is absolutely NO excuse to be anywhere near those things.....especially in the middle of an ocean!

Never worked with a pilot that did't respect thunderstorms and weather.

[flyguy121]

Crashes are hardly ever the result of only one thing gone wrong.

Absolutley!

Jets flying through thunderstorms and taking lightening stikes happens on a DAILY basis. There is an awful lot more to this accident than that !!!

[jz123]

How about the ELT? Does that work underneath water?


Regards
JZ123

[woodpecker]

A few years ago on a B777, to see the ITCZ while northbound (from a couple of hundred miles) sparking away at night AFTER the radar antenna had failed (as Steve suggests, two radar systems but the data from a single antenna), together with ACARS and Satcom down left me with only one option... Lagos.

[Joetom]

Qantas plane given 'piggy-back' ride across Pacific by another aircraft after it had to fly blind with equipment failure | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1081515/Qantas-plane-given-piggy-ride-Pacific-aircraft-forced-fly-blind-equipment-failure.html)
.
The above link may be of intrest to some, also the paste below.
.
Centralized maintenance computer–Airbus

A significant step forward for Airbus maintenance is the centralized maintenance computer. "Formerly, built-in test equipment was scattered and you had to work on several computers on the aircraft," Tessier said. Now the CMC gives comprehensive information (including history of parameters) in plain English. Some pieces of information are in hexadecimal format but "these are very specific details that only the manufacturer is interested in," Boniau added.

Datalink via the satellite-based ACARS system allows real-time monitoring of in-flight aircraft. Data are received in Charles-de-Gaulle and forwarded to other bases if necessary. "This way, we can anticipate what kind of maintenance equipment and spare parts are needed at the next stopover," Boniau said. Sometimes, experts can even find a solution that can be performed during flight. "This is often a reset of the system," Boniau said.

[Smilin_Ed]

How about the ELT? Does that work underneath water?

No, and they don't transmit four minutes worth of data after water contact, either in a crash or a controlled ditching.

Sonar pingers do send out sound waves after water immersion. They are installed in the data recorders and the batteries last about 30 days.

[Re-Heat]

There is a huge amount of unremitting drivel written on this website, some of which seems unfortunately to be read by Richard Quest...

Apart from a strong of ACARS messages, nobody here knows a thing about what happened last night. Uninformed speculation about the manufacture of an extensively tested and operated aircraft with experienced crews serves absolutely no useful purpose to anyone.

At this stage, we know only that a tragedy occurred and that the aircraft reported numerous failures caused by circumstances unknown.


I suggest that anyone wishing to speculate about any of those matters, either in the media or elsewhere, consult a list of all accidents since the Wright brothers took to the skies, and list out all possible accidents that have occured since then.

Anything else is uninformed speculation.

[Airbubba]

If they were on top, the moon was up last night while AF 477 was in flight.

I hit the ITCZ mostly in Asia. There are cells that tower in the moonlight but are all but invisible on radar. You can be cruising along fat dumb and happy and suddenly find your self in a cell. I try to stay high but keep a good stall buffet margin in case the bumps start.

[wileydog3]

dix188 Airbuses from A320 onwards need some electrics to operate flying controls.

Wrong.

[Farfrompuken]

There may be considerable difficulty in avoiding storm cells in that part of the world, particularly if there's a broad band of them.

I've been through the ITCZ many times en-route to Ascension. Sometimes you've just got to to for the 'Least Bad' option as depicted by your wx radar/Mk1 eyeball. Not fun.

No-one here on this forum, or elsewhere it seems, knows what happened so some of the crass comments appearing here are way out of line.

RIP to all involved.

[AMF]

Seems to me that given the forecast and reported (by the Captain to his Company) "hard" turbulence due to dynamic CB activity over the area they were in, and the aircraft was operating at 35,000' loaded with fuel for Paris, the starting point for speculation (if you must) would be the possibility of a jet upset/loss of aerodynamic contol situation if the aircraft entered moderate-to-severe turbulence (such as you'll find above and around developing CBs), warmer ISA deviations than forcecast with even light to moderate turbulence, or an unfortunate combination of both.

Heavy weights while operating from the mid-30s up combined severe turbulence can lead to a hairy "test-pilot" situation very quickly. Cruise altitude tables etc. do not account for it, and although an airliner is stressed to survive severe turbulence encounters with "merely" broken equipment,components and/or injured passengers and crew while the wings stay on, the stresses involved in recovering from a jet upset/loss of aerodynamic control at altitude can quickly exceed those parameters. Having to recover from one at night while possibly descending through or into the CBs that put you there in the first place reduces everything to a strong odds-against situation.

Data messages indicating failed/failed electrics and/or components during prolonged moderate - severe turbulence as they get bounced around wouldn't suprise me, but the sudden loss of an aircraft directly due to a CB-generated lightning strike is almost a non-starter theory given what you're also finding along with it (possible extreme turbulence, hail shafts) while operating heavy at high altitude.

Just my 2 cents, and a tangental reminder for all of us operators to heed the red flag of moderate or > turbulence being forecast at altitude enroute and carefully consider the aerodynamics for our given weights and temps for likely encounters. You never want to get into a boxed-in situation where conditions dictate you must descend to maintain aerodynamic control but descending also means you're no longer able to deviate around tops of CBs but rather find yourself more in the #@$@.

Oh, and anyone downplaying CBs because "they flew through one and it came out Ok" is, quite simply, an idiot for so many reasons and at so many levels they don't belong in a cockpit where they have to routinely deal with grown-up weather conditions. They sound like the worst kind of severe-weather neophyte probably not even understanding the the differences between airmass and steady-state and what they produce, what K Index and Skew-T are, and couldn't you the relationship between the reflectivity dB on their own contouring airborne radar and it's relationship to the probability of turbulence/severity and hail/diameter encounters let alone the basic, proper use of tilt and gain.

[stadedelafougere]

It is not improbable, in case of partial Electrical or Network failure to have several maintenance messages/alerts appearing on the WD / sent to the ground; the big question is : are these messages related to one another (originating from the failure of a unique system) or are they independent (weather conditions put the aircraft under so much stress that several systems fail within a few seconds).

AF , BEA and Airbus must have been working on it today/yesterday.
We know no communications were made between A/C and ATC at the time of the disaster, but knowing what was said within the cockpit and the noises in the cokpit (CVR's recording suggesting a lightning strike?) + FDR telling us what weather was encountered.

Let's hope the wreckage will be found soon and the DFDRs localised promptly as this accident may also cast doubts onto the specifications that current A/C must satisfy. I already hear you scream but what if extreme weather conditions were met (hail, lightning, turbulence, heavy gusts, ... or combinations) and brought this airplane down?
We will need the DFDR to cut speculation short but most of all to know what happened to flight 447. Media already start using movie-like headlines about this accident.

[PUG128]

Hi all. First post on PPrune, unfortunatly for the worst reasons :(
First things first: I'm just an aviation enthusiast, nothing more... A "MSFS Pilot" as you (pro) guys like to refer to us. I just hope that doesn't make me some kind of "persona no grata"...

That said, just a couple thoughts about this:

Besides the ACARS (automated) message(s), there isn't (AFAIK) a single registered (reported) comm attempt or distress message. Not on HF, not on VHF (guard, for instance), SATCOM, nothing that we know about.
That just makes me believe in an (unknown caused) explosive decompression that also rendered the aircraft's comms U/S. The "decompression" alarm (ACARS) may somehow corroborate it.

Forget the "causes" (T/S, CB, severe turbulence) and focus on the "outcome": it was fast. Way too fast.



./J

[DC-ATE]

Flyinheavy -
What makes You possibly think and write such a nonsense?
I do not know any pilot in an airline cockpit who would knowingly fly into a storm cell.

Well, I won't go through and list all the accidents that were the result of a thunderstorm encounter. The statistics are readily available elsewhere and besides, I said IF...BIG IF. I was merely pointing out that pilots have been known to fly into or near TRWs with fatal results. The record speaks for itself.:(

[JLPicard]

No one has news about others traffics in the same area at the time?
Would be interesting hear about their crossing to avoid useless speculations....just my opinion

godspeed...to our mates in the plane and to all people onboard

[AMF]

flyguy121 Quote:

Jets flying through thunderstorms and taking lightening stikes happens on a DAILY basis. There is an awful lot more to this accident than that !!!

This is ABOSOLUTE rubbish! Lightning strikes yes, but jets flying through thunderstorms on a daily basis? Who? Where? Pilots avoid and deviate around thunderstorms on a daily basis, and inadvertent encounters flying through the guts of one will more than likely result in damage or injury if they're lucky. If jets were flying routinely flying through thunderstorms every day we'd also routinely be losing aircraft to microbursts/etc near airport boundaries and suffering jet upset/hail-encounter losses at altitudes.

I cringe to think of non-pilots reading that statement, and have nightmares of pilots inexperienced with severe weather taking it on. What did you do, amble through a dissipating airmass shower once that was contouring red and came this this conclusion that it's no big deal?

Contrary to what you've asserted, there ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT NEED to be "a lot more to an accident" than flying through a thunderstorm....it's one waiting to happen. The bloody record of CB-produced accidents proves it.

[ZeBedie]

Cabin fire or a bomb would be far more likely than severe weather to bring the aircraft down. I wonder why AF are concentrating on wx rather than the more likely scenarios? Maybe we'll never know the truth?

[PUG128]

(quick and dirty translation of DenisG's post):

"Brazil's "substitute president, José Alencar, has stated tonight that he has received "vague" news about the whereabouts of the AF's Airbus A330 that has disappeared this sunday with 228 souls on board, between Rio and Paris.

"There's a vague report of a brasilien aircraft, from TAM, that would have saw something catching fire somewhere in the [Atlantic] Ocean. That was the plane that arrived this dawn", stated Alencar while questioned if the brasilien government had any preliminary information about the Airbus location."

./J

[mingocr83]

"Brazil's "substitute president, José Alencar, has stated tonight that he has received "vague" news about the whereabouts of the AF's Airbus A330 that has disappeared this sunday with 228 souls on board, between Rio and Paris.

"There's a vague report of a brasilien aircraft, from TAM, that would have saw something catching fire somewhere in the [Atlantic] Ocean. That was the plane that arrived this dawn", stated Alencar while questioned if the brasilien government had any preliminary information about the Airbus location."This is the correct translation.... follow this statement..

[discuz]

Would it be possible that the crew was only able to communicate through ACARS, hence the 4 minute communication? From what I've read on ACARS sites it's not just limited to automated technical info:

eg:
N156DL B767-3P6[ER] 25354/406 1506 PQ-DK [A40-GR]
Delta Airlines USA DL0124 Atlanta GA USA-Brussels Belgium
Using Ground Station E Amsterdam (AMS) .Message No. M57A
Message Type 80 POSITION REPORT
IN RANGE TYPE REPORT/23 Atlanta Hartsfield Int. Airport GA USA / Brussels Airport Belgium .N156DL
/DESTINATION STATION: Brussels Airport Belgium /ESTIMATED RAMP TIME 0725/CHAIR /MNR /PASSENGER AGENT REQUIRED TO MEET FLIGHT N/MEDICAL
N/SECURITY ASSISTANCE REQUIRED N/LANGUAGE INTERPRETER REQUIRED N/LAVATORY SERVICING Y/CABIN SERVICING REQUIRED Y

or:
9V-SPA B747-412 26550/1040 ER-AF
Singapore Airlines SQ0308 Singapore Singapore-London Heathrow United Kingdom
Using Ground Station X Birmingham (BHX) .Message No. 203A
Message Type H1 CENTRAL FAULT DISPLAY (Up/Downlink)
#T2B/ London Heathrow Airport UK KKSQ London Heathrow Airport UK KDSQ. ENGINEER NEEDED
PASSENGER MR REYNOLDS (14K) HAS DROPPED HIS NEW DIGITAL CAMERA REMOTE CONTROL IN NARROW SLOT NEAR ARMREST.
SUSPECTED TO BE INSIDE AREA UNDER SEAT.

(source: Vliegtuigen en Communicatie:Acars Wacars Analyser - Stego (http://www.stegoweb.net/pages/acars-wacars.htm))

[RoyHudd]

The rubbish on this website flows on and on. Richard Quest (CNN) is an able representative of such rubbish. A foolish man.

As an experienced A330 pilot, I can inform those PPrune posters and TV/radio commentators who have no experience-based knowledge, your stupid postings/TV commentaries are evident and obviously ignorant to aviation professionals and sadly they appear plausible to people who have little understanding. (BBC/Sky News included)

The idiots abound. Thank God for professionals, including the AF pilots who doubtless did their best. When your time is truly up, that is it. My thought is that the situation was beyond resolution. This happens, albeit rarely, in life. And aviation.

[fabbe92]

The chances of a sucessfule ditching are none!

It´s a big aircraft and it would brake up on a normal day, this was during night. The pilots couldn´t see the water coming, the current constantly changes and there was waves. So no I don´t think the ditching went god if there was one.

Even if there was a ditching and survivors, I don´t think they are still alive by now.

[CentralS]

There is a complete convergence of interests at AF and Airbus to make sure once the black box is discovered the full story is totally managed so that we don't even think that maybe the A330 family (and for that matter the A340 family with which it shares so much) should be grounded until the mystery is solved...
Remember its one big statist monopoly all-been-to-the-same-school group of people that run industry in France...

P.S. Not anti-French nor anti-AF nor anti-Airbus - just providing a reality check !Do not forget that you, British, are in charge of wings and everything attached to the wings on these aircrafts!

P.S. I'm not anti-British and I have many friends in U.K. but I must say that you mostly suck when it's time for business, although you may show friendly at the pub!

[AMF]

ZeBedie Cabin fire or a bomb would be far more likely than severe weather to bring the aircraft down. I wonder why AF are concentrating on wx rather than the more likely scenarios? Maybe we'll never know the truth?

:yuk:

Let me take a wild guess. You don't actually fly airplanes for a living, do you, but rather teach Conspiracy Theory 101 at your local internet message board. :ugh:

[carolosm]

i have been flying next to CB s and sometimes in the less severe part of it not because i wanted to but because i had no choice and i can tell that it is by far the most dangerous thing in aviation considering that i am flying in war zones. having said that , my gut feeling is a catastophic failure of some sort since no mayday call was sent. only time will tell.

carolos

[BigHitDH]

I can't help but feel this lightning thing is a red herring. I mean, there have been ~600 A330's built since 1994, if all of those flew 12 hrs a day, that's more than 2.6m hours a year. Never mind all the other very similar Airbus aircraft flying around with similar composite parts. Never mind all the Boeing aircraft. It seems to be so unlikely as to render it almost impossible that a single strike could take down a transport category aircraft that it and it's counterparts have doubtless been struck thousands of times before with little to no effect.

Seriously, transport category aircraft get struck by lightning all the time, I bet there aren't many jet drivers out there that haven't been. Hell, I bet there aren't many frequent flying pax out there that haven't experienced it. It's not like the A330 is short or metal parts to strike either.

How many other Airbus aircraft have ever had difficulties following a lightning strike? How many have had problems with turbulence? Both are generally non-events.

I think we need to take a step back and wait for more information.

We are talking about a modern, well equipped aircraft, with a well trained, experienced crew. Clearly something is missing, I hope we get to find out what it is.

[PUG128]

Just saw some kind of "press conference" on CNN, in french but "dubbed" in english stating "several warning messages coming from the aparatus [sic]".

Any french person around that can provide us with some *proper* translation of the press conference contents ? Guess something was "lost in translation" ...

./J

[ribt4t]

Hell, I bet there aren't many frequent flying pax out there that haven't experienced it.

I'm not even a frequent flyer but I was on a plane struck by lightning a couple of years ago. Just happened to be looking out of the window during approach to MSP when it hit the wing on my side. None of the passengers talked about it until we were on the ground though.

[Smilin_Ed]

It's not like the A330 is short or metal parts to strike either.It doesn't have to be metal to get hit. Lightning hits lots of non-metalic things like trees. It's a matter of electrical potential. Electrical charges will flow (They're called lightning) from a region of high potential to low potential, regardless of the material. With enough potential difference to overcome the resistance of the medium in the middle, charges will flow.

How many other Airbus aircraft have ever had difficulties following a lightning strike? How many have had problems with turbulence? Both are generally non-events.There is a first time for everything. Think about BA038.

[GDASH]

Some people seem to have made the error of stating (or assuming) that the pilots didn't make any transmissions after reporting INTOL (one post in particular seems to have been since removed?). The correct statement is that transmissions (apparently) weren't received.

If the first statement is true, the assumption might be rapid catastrophic airframe failure or that the pilots were far too busy until an airframe failure occurred.

If the second statement is true, a far larger number of possibilities open up. In an area with no radar coverage and unreliable radio contact compounded by huge electrical activity, the aircrew may well have been transmitting and not being picked up. Perhaps even in a controlled descent.

An extremely unfortunate note is that (if the Norwegian news story is true) PAX have superior communications technology available to them via satellite uplink and the most reliable company communication is a similarly uplinked automated fault annunciator useful to company mechanics and operations managers but woefully inadequate to address infinitely more pressing matters.

[BAe 146-100]

I couldn't imagine anything worse then loosing your weather radar over the middle of the atlantic, at night, when there are CBs in the vicinity.

[BigHitDH]

@Smilin_Ed

Granted, but flow of charge tends to take the path of least resistance, so preferentially "avoids" composite parts without conductors when placed along side a metal part.

[pierrefridez]

Aeronautica keeps up the search for the lost flight during the night
marcio falcao of folha online, Brasilia
The search actions of the Brasilian Air Force (FAB) for the AF plane missing since Sunday night will not be interrupted during Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
The Hercules C-130 will perform a night search using electronic equipment in an attempt to capture signals from the emergency devices of the Airbus 330 of flight AF447

The aircraft disappeared on the route from Rio, from where it took off to Paris at around 19hours on Sunday, with 228 persons on boar -, 216 passengers and 12 crew. According to AF, there were 58 Brasilian passengers on board.

During today, Bandeirantes aircraft flew over a region of the atlantic ocean, in which contact with the airbus was lost, reaching the limits between Brasilian and Senegalese airspace. the Bandeirantes performed low level flights in an attempt to get visual contact with the Airbus.

French govenrment communicated to FAB command that two aircraft performed searche sweeps on the Senegalese side.

In total, Brasilian air force put 5 aircraft into the search operation, 2 helicopters, and 3 navy aircraft.

FAB initiated search actions at around 02h to localize the lost aircraft, after receiving notice from air space control at Ilha do Sal.

The search aircraft are based on Fernande de Noronha island (PE state) and in Natal. Coordination is done via Cindacta 3 in Recife.

Following FAB information, the last contact with the lost aircraft with a Brasilian control occurred at about 22:30. After that, a contact was foreseen for 23:20, with TASIL, controlling a region about 22 km to North of Natal, which never occurred.

Brasilian air space command realised some contacts with Dakar control, to obtain flight condition information. According to Aeronautica, in the region where the loss occurred, there is no radar coverage, and communication is done via long distance radio links.
FAB attempts to establish the approximate distance between Recife and the area where the aircraft was lost.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The online article has several links, which I do not translate unless requested.
My thoughts go to all families.

[jmbrito]

Ok,
First of all, may their souls rest in peace.
Secondly, today in Portuguese TV ( im portuguese), there were some TAP pilots that refered that Yesterday ( day before de acident) they crossed the same area ( Portugal to Brasil and vice versa) and they mentioned that they barely could transmit their message in HF to brasil traffic controlers. this was confimed with other aircrafts because they all could speak with each other but not the ATC control. Static/poor radio propragation/whatever. Plus they said that the weather was not bad, only some light turbulence. But you know that weather changes quickly in that area.

Nowadays there is the technology that allow an aircraft to relay a normal mobile phone. The Phone is on permanent roaming while aboard the aircraft. http://www.onair.aero/admin/fil/02_April_AF_OnAir_voice.pdfSiemens and Airbus develop joint aircraft GSM solution (http://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/news_wire/111258/Siemens_and_Airbus_develop_joint_aircraft_GSM_solution.html)
so, smsing is possible if aircraft was fitted with that equipment.

now,
Look into what happened in recente past:
Hudson, dual engine failure=> still pilots able to comunicate.
TWA 800, catastrophic colapse of airframe (after center tank explosion)=> no comunication at all.
MD11 from swiss: Was able to comunicate failures ( electrical short/overcharge of system) before crashing.

But again, we dont know if brasil was able to listen any coms.

One thing is for sure: AF pilots are very good and obviously they would be very proeficient in aplying the emergency measures, if they had the chance. So, what ever happened it was fast.

My final opinion, AF saying that it was a ligthning strike, it is a prematurly one, looks like a "not in my backyard" message from AF. like if it was Act of God. Maybe it was, maybe it wasnt. Nobody knows for sure. A huge amount of things could have happened. But flown several time in A330, i still consider onde of the best aircrafts in the world.

Best Regards,

JB

PS: Just a thought: doesnt the Karnivore system from CIA scans for these frequencies?

[misd-agin]

italianjon (http://www.pprune.org/members/104832-italianjon)

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: London, UK
Posts: 111


There is lots of discussions about weather maps a speculation about the conditions in the vicinity of the last known postion, although does anyone know if there were any other aircraft following the same or parallel routes that experienced turbulence, CBs or other.

If this was the second AF flight from Rio to CDG, what routing did the first flight take and what en-route weather was experienced?

I am not speculating (famous last words before I get flamed http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/wink2.gif ) I just feel that putting a map up and saying "ooo looks bad" and getting a confirmed report from another aircraft in the same bit of sky are two completely different things in understanding what weather the aircraft experienced.
*******************************************************

The weather you experience can be completely different for the flight 5 minutes in front of, or behind, you. Same goes for 5 miles either side, or even 1000' - 2000' above or below you.

We don't even know, at this point, if the aircraft was exactly on the airway or had deviated slightly for any weather.

[Krueger]

I had some reports from pilots that flew around that time the area and said that the area had a lot of CBs. The comms were difficult (but that's nothing new). One of them even gave some back-up frequencies to an AF, but not sure if it was AF447. Anyway, there wasn't any distress call heard by them be it 123.45 or 121.5

Our condolences for the friends and families of the victims.

Check Six , Krueger...:(

[misd-agin]

Strongresolve (http://www.pprune.org/members/222496-strongresolve)

Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Valencia
Age: 34
Posts: 37


This is fact:

The planes was close to an area of intense CB and TS activity.

*******************************************************


Actually the link provided in this thread had an area of OCL EMBD TSTMS. We get terminology or verbiarge creep and the theories start developing. Intense wasn't on the weather charts.

Looked at the link provided with the weather forecast for the route of flight with 2 other wide body pilots. 55,000 hrs combined experience, including that portion of the world, and to us the predicted weather was normal for the ITCZ.

[One Outsider]

misd-agin,

What you hear is the usual internet 'knowledge of everything, 'understanding of nothing'.

I heard Greg Feith on CNN today. At least there are some voices of reason out there.

Nothing is known, everything is known, seems to be the current motto.

[misd-agin]

http://static.pprune.org/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Today, 18:01 #308 (http://www.pprune.org/4967145-post308.html) (permalink (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/375937-air-france-a330-200-missing-16.html#post4967145)) Airbubba (http://www.pprune.org/members/2149-airbubba)

Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Rockytop, Tennessee, USA
Posts: 1,940


If they were on top, the moon was up last night while AF 477 was in flight.

I hit the ITCZ mostly in Asia. There are cells that tower in the moonlight but are all but invisible on radar. You can be cruising along fat dumb and happy and suddenly find your self in a cell. I try to stay high but keep a good stall buffet margin in case the bumps start.

*******************************************************


What sort of radar management settings are you talking about when you say the cells "are all but invisible on radar"?

At the recommended settings many cells are "all but invisible on radar". For that reason alone most guys don't use the recommended settings and instead set the radar at it's most sensitive settings and work backwards, towards less sensitive settings, from there.

[TvB]

PUG :D

Just saw some kind of "press conference" on CNN, in french but "dubbed" in english stating "several warning messages coming from the aparatus [sic]".

Any french person around that can provide us with some *proper* translation of the press conference contents ? Guess something was "lost in translation" ...

Yes please... I believe a lot of information was already provided in French but these :mad: from CNN and the beep keep on translating with voice over and the translation is done by people with no aeronautical vocabulary at all.

I'm pretty sure that I heard earlier today on CNN the CEO of AF saying (among others) that they believed that both engines may have quit... but couldn't get this sorted out properly. Unfortunately AF PR stuff does a not so good job in not getting the speeches up on their webpage and have at least an English version available...

So, is there anybody from France who could give a bit more precise info please to what was said and not what the media makes off it?

And please dear Mr. Turner pull the plug on Richard "Blubbla" Quest!!!

Appreciated!

[Willoz269]

Brazil media is reporting Senegal SAR teams have located wreckage...unable to confirm so far if the wreckage is indeed that of the Airbus.

[pjd_012]

It would be interesting to know what the Swiss Air 343 experienced last night. The flight left GRU at 1835 local - arriving ZRH at 1100 local. Would have been in similar airspace and conditions in relatively close proximity.

[stuart7884]

reauters is reporting a frnch minister quoting that the search has been pinpointed to within 10nm

[jamespage]

RIO - The Government of Senegal announced in the late afternoon of Monday, be located in their territorial sea which could be the wreckage of Air France plane that disappeared in the Atlantic Ocean with 228 people on board, on Sunday night. According to the Center of Social Communication of the Air, if the information is verified by the search teams, the responsibility for investigating the causes of the accident is now in France, a country that belongs to the airline for flight. The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) does not, however, the possibility of the two governments entered into an agreement to establish working together.

See for full article via google translate
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/acidente-voo-447/mat/2009/06/01/senegal-encontra-destrocos-que-podem-ser-do-aviao-da-air-france-que-sumiu-no-atlantico-756137937.asp&sl=pt&tl=en&hl=en&ie=UTF-8)

[Rushed Approach]

As someone who's flown an Airbus for the best part of two decades the terrorism possibility has been dismissed ridiculously quickly both here and in the media. It seems likely this jet came down pretty fast. How many times has weather brought down a big jet in recent years compared with how many times a bomb has?

I've no evidence whatsoever for this possibility, but neither is there for the other scenarios either. Bombs cause electrical failures and pressure loss too, even assuming the alleged ACARS messages are accurate. Of course AF aren't suggesting this - I'd blame it on the weather too if I were them.

[niallbhoy]

i'm just wondering where your reading or hearing this? My neighbour Aisling is one of the irish girls on the flight and her parents are just hoping the plane can be found, so they can see what happened and to help them get some closure.

[brendanjr]

It has just been on the Brazilian news that TAM has officially announced that crew on a TAM flight from Paris to Rio de Janeiro spotted bright patches"fire" on the Atlantic Ocean surface about 1000Km from the archipelago of Fernando de Noronha around 30 minutes after the Air France A330 sent the electrical failure radio signal to Paris.

Here's the link of the story for anyone interested, G1 > Mundo - NOTÍCIAS - Piloto de rota comercial viu 'pontos laranjas' no oceano, diz Aeronáutica (http://g1.globo.com/Noticias/Mundo/0,,MUL1178988-5602,00.html)

Bail ó Dhia ort...

[TheFlyingFrenchman]

It seems Senegal found the wreckage?
Senegal encontra destroços que podem ser do avião da Air France que sumiu no Atlântico - O Globo (http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/acidente-voo-447/mat/2009/06/01/senegal-encontra-destrocos-que-podem-ser-do-aviao-da-air-france-que-sumiu-no-atlantico-756137937.asp)
I dont speak portuguese but its all over twitter at the moment.

Sincerely sorry for the families and relatives.

[stuart7884]

saw it on reauters.uk internet site and they were quoting senior french minister jean-louis borloo who said "the zone has been identified down to within 10 nautical miles"

[bubbers44]

We know nothing. Air France knows nothing. Why do people look at automatic ACARS messages of any part of this accident? The known thunderstorms in the IC area are well known. They knew it before they took off. Why take fragments of information and come up with lightning strikes, etc. We need to wait for some solid data. I am sure Airbus knows already the copilot used too much rudder. Cheap solution.
Worked in 2001.

[coolbeans202]

Hanger 9,

"Plane crews have narrowed their search to a zone of a few dozen nautical miles half-way between Brazil and west Africa, said Pierre-Henry Gourgeon, chief executive of Air France."

BBC NEWS | Americas | Atlantic searched for lost plane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8078147.stm)

[Willoz269]

Rushed Approach....the truth is nobody knows what brought this aircraft down...

Terrorism is far more unlikely (given the current political climate) on a French jet than on an American jet...but still possible....terrorism follows a cause (however they justify it)...it is just that in the current political climate, there is no cause against France in International politics....which makes a bombing unlikely, but still possible.

Weather is another factor...BOAC 707 at Mt Fuji springs to mind...an aircraft relatively new, yet was smashed by Lee Turbulence off Mt Fuji, no chance even for a MayDay. Other aircraft went past the area and did not report many problems, but again, it means nothing...I have seen many aircraft do missed approaches one after the other, then about 4 or 5 are able to come in when weather changes, and bang, all shut again, and no other aircraft can get in...unpredictable.

As someone who's flown Airbuses for a while, can you explain to those who have not, what the worst case scenario would be at that height, at .82 or .83 and what window of opportunity you have to regain control in the case of a violent upset?

[Config Full]

@ Rushed Approach (http://www.pprune.org/members/114635-rushed-approach)
There has been a four-minute sequence of automatic messages indicating malfunction and/or failure of at least one electrical circuit, secondly to this hour there still has been no claim by any terrorist organization of an attack on the plane.
A terrorist operation, if not to be excluded at all, is at the moment a possibility that seems quite remote.

[brendanjr]

Does the ELT work in deep water?

[ThoddyEADS]

We know nothing. Air France knows nothing. Why do people look at automatic ACARS messages of any part of this accident? The known thunderstorms in the IC area are well known. They knew it before they took off. Why take fragments of information and come up with lightning strikes, etc. We need to wait for some solid data. I am sure Airbus knows already the copilot used too much rudder. Cheap solution.
Worked in 2001

Blubbers, what are you talking about. First you are saying "we know nothing" and then "I am sure Airbus..." Did you call AF and AB that you've solved the secret ? Oh man...

[L'aviateur]

Latest translation from Airfrance website, most of it probably irrelevent, but nethertheless;

Flight crew


Commander:

French
58 years
He joined the company in 1988
Qualified on the Airbus A330/A340 in February 2007
11 000 flying hours, including 1 700 Airbus A330/A340

Co-pilots:

French
37 years and 32 years
Joined the company in 1999 and 2004
Airbus A330/A340 qualified in April 2002 and June 2008
6 600 flying hours, including 2 600 Airbus A330/A340
3 000 flying hours, including 800 by Airbus A330/A340
Cabin crew



Purser:

French
49 years
He joined the company in 1985

Sr Cabin Crew

French
54 and 46 years
Joined the company in 1981 and 1989

Jr Cabin Crew

5 French and 1 Brazilian
Between 24 and 44 years
Entered the company between 1996 and 2007



Air France is able to confirm the nationalities of the passengers aboard the flight AF 447 of 31 May 2009, disappeared between Rio de Janeiro and Paris-Charles de Gaulle. This list has been established on the basis of information supplied by the Brazilian authorities.



1 South Africa
26 Germans
2 Americans
1 Argentina
1 Austrian
1 Belgian
58 Brazilians
5 Britons
1 Canadian
9 Chinese
1 Croatian
1 Danish
2 Spanish
1 Estonian
61 French
1 Gambia
4 Hungarian
3 Irish
1 Icelandic
9 Italy
5 Lebanese
2 Moroccans
1 Dutch
3 Norwegians
1 Filipino
2 Polish
1 Romanian
1 Russian
3 Slovakians
1 Swedish
6 Swiss
1 Turkish


A medical and psychological assistance, including 15 medical specialists has been set up at the airports of Paris-Charles de Gaulle 2 and Rio de Janeiro.


One hundred volunteer staff of Air France is reinforcing the team at Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Rio de Janeiro.

[Bingaling]

The ELT will work anywhere...........

It won't be long now until the aircraft or wreckage is found.

[brendanjr]

Tam has officially announced that crew on their flight from Paris to Rio spotted bright patches which looked like fire on the Atlantic Ocean surface about 1000Km from Fernando de Noronha only half an hour after the electrical failure radio transmissions made by the AF A330 computer.

Slán agus beannacht leat

[Fly2High]

Good write up...

What happened to Flight 447? | U.S. | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55059220090601)

A fair amalgam of all the info available, other than incorrect information about the plane's maintenance record (it's wing clipped an A320's tail on the ground a while back), and the conclusion about constant telemetry being a shaky if not flawed idea.

[tommy777]

Tam Flight Crew Saw Flashes Near Air France Jet?s Final Signal - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8LcMC4MDeSw&refer=home)

By Heloiza Canassa

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Tam SA said crew members of one of its flights saw flashes of light over the Atlantic Ocean near where a missing Air France aircraft last sent a signal.

Crew members were on the Tam flight to Rio de Janeiro from Paris when they saw the flashes about 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) from Fernando de Noronha island, Brazil’s second-largest airline said in an e-mailed statement.

The Air France jet sent its last distress signal approximately 840 kilometers from Fernando de Noronha, according to Brazil’s Air Force.

[Lost in Saigon]

Good write up...

What happened to Flight 447? | U.S. | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55059220090601)

A fair amalgam of all the info available, other than incorrect information about the plane's maintenance record (it's wing clipped an A320's tail on the ground a while back), and the conclusion about constant telemetry being a shaky if not flawed idea.

It seemed to be a pretty good write up intil I read this bit of wisdom:

But consider this possibility: most Captains on long hauls over the pond prefer to be on the flight deck for take-off and landing. Was the most seasoned aviator in his bunk when the weather hit the fans?

[damirc]

There's something that doesn't quite compute here ... 4 minute long communication via ACARS, yet over that the same 4 minutes no PAN or Mayday on either 121.5 or 123.45. It's clear you navigate before you communicate, but 4 minutes do sound quite long.

Also - due to the altitude where the initiating event took place (FL350 from what I've read) the debris should be scattered in a rather large area if it would be turbulence and structural break-up (and those 4 minutes of ACARS messages speak hightly against turbulence and immediate structural breakup). Loss of control and structural break-up either at a lower altitude or upon impact :ouch: sound more likely.

Disclaimer: not a pilot, just an enthusiast working where I need to use logic and deduction.

[Fly2High]

Agreed, im sure with those conditions, the bunk would be the last thing on his mind!

[bubbers44]

No, my friend, Airbus doesn't know what happened on this flight but it was conveniently blamed on the copilot because he was there and had a lot less money to sue then Airbus. It is just the way it works. Just convince the public.

[etesting2000]

These people may be able to handle a deep search.

Oceaneering International; Inc. (http://www.oceaneering.com/ROV.asp?id=599)

[dicksorchard]

Doubts over lightning's role in missing jetliner

Brazil said Monday's aircraft last made radar contact at 0133 GMT after passing the Fernando de Noronha islands off its northern coast, about 250 miles (400 km) south of the equator.

It was heading towards a notorious stormy patch that shifts around the equator known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

It had been preceded safely on the same track 30 minutes earlier by a Boeing 747-400 heading to Frankfurt for Lufthansa, according to a source with access to data transmitted from jetliners for the World Meteorological Organisation.

Two hours later an MD-11 cargo plane also flown by Lufthansa passed just south of the same spot on the way to West Africa, the source told Reuters, asking not to be identified.

Neither aircraft reported any anomaly.
"You can't tie it down to lightning with the information we have; for me it's a red herring," said the source, who specialises in aviation weather. Lufthansa declined comment.

CIRCUIT FAILURE

An Air France captain operating on long-range routes, who agreed to speak to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said lightning alone was unlikely to have caused the presumed crash.

"I would not think it was possible that lightning could lead to a short-circuit and disrupt all of the plane's electrical systems. Test planes have resisted some 30 lightning strikes and nothing ever happened," the pilot said.

More likely, he said, is that the jet might have suffered an electrical system failure which would have turned off its radars and communications systems, turning it blind and making it more vulnerable to storms and strong lateral air currents.

[Rush2112]

Prima facie, a constant stream of telemetry is not a bad idea, but I imagine the practicalities (and I know nothing whatsoever about it!) would consign this to the "too hard" basket?

[Guara]

This accident made me think about the A330 incident in Oct 2008...

"The Airbus A330-300 was flying from Singapore to Perth when it suddenly plunged thousands of feet, leaving more than 50 people injured.

A computer malfunction involving the auto-pilot system was blamed for the incident"

Is there any possibility that something similar to this has happened too?

[b74l]

Whatever tragic events occurred--no question it happened fast--probably instantaneously. With almost instantaneous communications capability via SATCOM and ACARS available on this aircraft, the fact that (as far as we know) AF Paris flight dispatch heard nothing from the crew themselves prior to the event suggests whatever the issue, things deteriorated very quickly...so quickly that the crew could not contact/advise CDG dispatch...it takes no more than a few seconds to hit the CDU and send dispatch a msg via ACARS.

One thing that comes to my mind with this tragedy is the Qantas A330 events in the past months, where the ADIRU apparantly cause very sudden/abrupt flight control movements. The one flight that landed in Exmouth suffered alot of airframe damage as a result of the sudden movements. Although some suggestions point to possible naval radio interference on that incident.

[MajorLemond]

This is a very disturbing situation, as the a330 has a good safety record, although the QF incident comes to mind, and with a violent pitch change at high speed in what has been said severe turbulence could likely result in structural failure. Given the little facts at this stage perhaps it`s hard to even speculate, but a cockpit/electrical fire is also a possibility

[Walder]

http://www.hcl.dk/graphics/synkron-library/hcl/dokumenter/redegorelser/2000/67-00.GRL.pdf

Even though it is very rear, lightning can cause an onboard fire!!!:uhoh:

[Config Full]

We have around 10 automatic technical messages sent via satellite from the aircraft to the Air France maintenance center. All these messages relate to some sort of deterioration or failure regarding the avionics and electrical circuits. The duration of this event is about 4 minutes.

Engineers at Air France in my view already have a lot of information in terms of events with these messages.

Air France CEO, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon states that the above messages denote "a situation totally unexpected, totally unprecedented in the air and a great difficulty."

[torquewrench]

PS: Just a thought: doesnt the Karnivore system from CIA scans for these frequencies?Carnivore was an e-mail scanning system.

American electronic signals intelligence in space is operated by the National Reconnaissance Office. Their satellites, currently the MENTOR series, are extremely capable of detecting and recording radio traffic.

However, if the only transmissions sent from the aircraft were the ACARS bulletins already received in Paris, which seems probable, that would mean the satellite would not be able to provide any new information.

[Graybeard]

While lightning strikes are common, most of them occur near the freezing level, and not at flight level altitudes.

Lightning has a mind of its own, and for example will hit wiring in the wing root, as well as the fairing and the fuselage-wing spar joint.

Yes, weather radar is primarily a rainfall detector, and ice is a poor reflector of radar energy. That's why any radar return at flight levels has to be taken seriously. Modern Wx radars are equipped with doppler shift detection, which shows areas of turbulence, if there is the least amount of aerosols to reflect. It will not detect turbulence in clear air.

GB

[CarlosB777Capt]

I´ve flown on this route, Brazil/Paris Charles de Gaulle/Brazil, for ten years, with the A330-200 as a captain. Comunications within this area specially on the boundary between Atlantico and Dakar Centers, and specially with this last one, are very very difficult. And the worst nightmare possible in this route is an airplane coming down in the middle of the atlantic ocean, the area where its believed to be this aircraft. The logistic to do, and to complete the rescue, I believe will take a few days or even weeks.
My opinion is that something very serious happened, concerning the integrity of the structure of the aircraft, and or of the crew, and the thunderstorms may be just a contribuiting factor, for this tragedy. For sure, everything that could have being done, was done by this crew:D

[stebern]

Previous post had:
Air France CEO, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon states that the above messages denote "a situation totally unexpected, totally unprecedented in the air and a great difficulty."
This is so like the situation with that Singapore-Perth A330 QF flight and the auto-pilot malfunction leading to steep uncontrolled climb then steep descent. Subsequent emergency landing revealed stresses. Computer systems failure seems to be to blame. You have to wonder if this is a similar, mysterious occurence. The full interim report makes fascinating reading.
200806143 (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2008/AAIR/aair200806143.aspx)

[jimme747]

{Heavy} Lightning could be the issue with the missing airbus.
Both airplanes crossing the same area earlier and later (MD-11 & 747-400 see previous post)
have less CF in their structure and surface area. Energy will flow in all directions and are likely
to cause less damage. US Navy had freak incidents while testing CF wings years ago.

[altonacrude]

The Airbus A330-300 was flying from Singapore to Perth when it suddenly plunged thousands of feet, leaving more than 50 people injured. Thousands of feet? Absolutely not. From the Australian Transport Safety Bureau Interim Factual Report (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2008/AAIR/pdf/AO2008070_interim.pdf):At 0932 local time (0132 UTC) on 7 October 2008, an Airbus A330-303 aircraft, registered VH-QPA, departed Singapore on a scheduled passenger transport service to Perth, Australia. On board the aircraft (operating as flight number QF72) were 303 passengers, nine cabin crew and three flight crew. At 1240:28, while the aircraft was cruising at 37,000 ft, the autopilot disconnected. From about the same time there were various aircraft system failure indications. At 1242:27, while the crew was evaluating the situation, the aircraft abruptly pitched nose-down. The aircraft reached a maximum pitch angle of about 8.4 degrees nose-down, and descended 650 ft during the event. After returning the aircraft to 37,000 ft, the crew commenced actions to deal with multiple failure messages. At 1245:08, the aircraft commenced a second uncommanded pitch-down event. The aircraft reached a maximum pitch angle of about 3.5 degrees nose-down, and descended about 400 ft during this second event.
At 1249, the crew made a PAN urgency broadcast to air traffic control, and requested a clearance to divert to and track direct to Learmonth. At 1254, after receiving advice from the cabin of several serious injuries, the crew declared a MAYDAY. The aircraft subsequently landed at Learmonth at 1350.

One flight attendant and 11 passengers were seriously injured and many others experienced less serious injuries. Most of the injuries involved passengers who were seated without their seatbelts fastened or were standing. As there were serious injuries, the occurrence constituted an accident. [...]

Two other occurrences have been identified involving similar anomalous ADIRU behaviour, but in neither case was there an in-flight upset.
Peak g loads during the upset were +1.56 g and -0.80 g. Subsequent examination revealed no structural damage to the aircraft. It is possible that a similar ADIRU problem could result in a substantially more difficult upset that the crew were unable to recover, although following the accident discussed here, Arbus sent out Operations Engineering Bulletins to all operators with potentially affected aircraft, detailing what to do if the problem occurred.

[Config Full]

@ stebern (http://www.pprune.org/members/119927-stebern)
Thanks for sharing, seems interesting.
On QF72 the events do not seem to have an external cause though.
With AF447, the aircraft entered an area of severe turbulence around 2:00am GMT. 14 to 15 minutes later we have this 4-minute interval of technical bulletin transmission, all dealing with malfunctions and/or failures, especially electrical.
We have all reason to believe that, in between, there has been at least one external cause that may have contributed to alterate the flight integrity.

[Mad (Flt) Scientist]

I wonder whether the ELT signals will ever be picked up from the ocean's depth? Perhaps it would be a good idea for ELTs in the future to also have an automatic flotation device so that at least the crash area over a water body can be localised.

Like this (http://www.elta.fr/uk_doc/ADT406AP.pdf) for example?

Automatic/Portable ELT with float free capability

That seems to be a marine one, I think, but I seem to recall reading of at least one air version with similar capability. The difficulty being to assure it'll be able to float out of what might be a seriously compromised structure. Also, in the event of a break-up midair, I'm not sure an ELT would necessarily survive the fall from x thousand feet and still be float-capable.

edit

OK, here's an Aviation ELT of type AD - Automatic Deployable (http://www.drs.com/Products/CPI406.aspx)

The CPI-406 121.5 MHz/406 MHz Deployable Emergency Locator Transmitte(ELT) system .....The electronics are packaged within a crash survivable Beacon Airfoil Unit (BAU) that is qualified and certified to CAA, TCA and FAA standards.

The BAU separates from the aircraft at the onset of an incident, thereby escaping the devastating effects of the crash. .... In addition, the BAU floats indefinitely, providing superior survivability and localization for both aircraft and crew should the crash occur over water.

Now that's a helicopter version, but I'm sure there are fixed wing types too.

[BreezyDC]

For those doubtful about recovery of wreckage and recorders, note the successful recovery of some wreckage and the CVR from the SAA Flight 295 that went down in over 5 km of water in the Indian Ocean over 20 years ago. For a good summary on the location of the wreckage two months after the crash from a large search area with the technology available then see HelderbergSearch Paper (http://www.strumpfer.com/Papers/HelderbergSearch.htm)

[pattern_is_full]

There seem to be two translations of what the TAM crew saw - "flashes of light" and "flames on the ocean". The second seems more probable (if it was the AF flight and not just ITCZ lightning) since it was 30 minutes after the last transmission. And that tends to indicate the plane was still intact enough to be holding fuel in liquid form when it reached the surface.

Fuel dissipated in an aerosol at altitude would not burn in pools on the water.

In fact (well, OK, in speculation) it might even mean the plane was somewhat under control all the way down, and just had disastrous luck with a ditching attempt.

I'm more sanguine now about the odds of finding the CVR and FDR, between the TAM sighting, the Senegalese statement, and the French experience at undersea work.

I would not assume that a lightning strike directly destroyed this craft, but can easily see scenarios where it left them blind and/or disabled and easy prey for a subsequent event - TS penetration or control/instrument failures.

Speculation is what humans do - try to solve mysteries on insufficient data. With time the data become firmer and the speculation more narrowly focused - until eventually someone can write a report. Which, absent survivors, is still sometimes only a best guess as to exactly what happened.

[lomapaseo]

we are never going to stop people from speculating in these threads any more than we are going to stop posters from expressing condolences to unknown readers. So we might as well give up trying to stop these expressions.

The professionals among us know enough not to give any credence to a speculation that jumps over several layers of swiss cheese effects to guess at an accident's cause.

[swish266]

On CMC and ACARS
This system can be very customized. AF knows much more than they admit. They have been talking to their legal team right from the start. They will spoon-feed us the info when they are told its ok by their lawyers.

On ELT
It's high time we have in the Airbus cockpit an easy access manual "on" button for the ELT in the back, like some Boeing models I flew had. If it was there...

On AF SOP
Was the Captain in the cockpit at the time or he was taking his rest? Who was in his seat - the guy with 800h or the guy with 2600? Not that it matters so much, but in an extremely stressful sit, it will won't it?

WE WILL KEEP WRITING THE DARN MANUALS IN OUR OWN BLOOD



:suspect:

:mad:

[Capitain]

Looks pretty similar to KQ 507. It also went down during turbulence. .....Lightening was sighted as possible reason. wonder what was derived out of the flight recorder of KQ 507. Hopefully AF will do a better Job !!!!!:\

[NSEU]

How can anyone RELY on any speculation on here?

Indeed.

On the subject of ELTs...
Most airliners these days seem to have top fuselage-mounted VHF/UHF ELT transmitters which activate under high g-forces (dedicated shark fin type antenna outside, battery-operated transmitter inside). These are now compulsory in some regions. I assume satellites have the ability to pick up their UHF signals. However, I seriously doubt their ability to transmit underwater (as claimed here). Radio waves do not propogate very well in water ;) Water is the realm of short-range ultrasonic transmitters mounted on the front of the very heavy "black boxes" (which definitely do not float).

Whilst creating ELT's that detatch and float is not beyond the realms of possibility, the mechanisms allowing them to automatically eject from pressurised aircraft on or prior to impact would probably be more more harmful to human life than beneficial.

On the subject of lightning strikes ...
People claiming that lightning can't bring down modern aircraft are treading on very thin ice. There have been fuel tank fires, total glass instrumentation failure, holes punctured in composite materials, etc, which could quite easily lead to aircraft loss (with far fewer holes than James Reason's model).

On the subject of ACARS transmission ...
The fault reporting system can be programmed to do whatever is desired (including position data, instant fault data, etc). The ACARS system has access to as much data as the flight recorders (if not more).

Anyway, let's hope the moderators have enough patience to get rid of all the chaff... and perhaps correct a few of those embarrassing spelling mistakes that so-called professionals seem to make (e.g. "loosing"(sic)), perhaps making PPRuNe more publication-worthy :}

[V1... Ooops]

Of all the idiotic drivel I have read in the press about aircraft accidents, this particular paragraph (from the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/world/europe/02plane.html?_r=1&ref=global-home), no less!) had got to take the cake:

A loss of cabin pressure could suggest a break in the fuselage, but planes are built to withstand buffeting from a storm’s updrafts and downdrafts. It could also be a consequence of an electrical failure, if the plane’s air compressors stop working.

The authors of the above gem truly deserve recognition, here are their names:

Donald G. McNeil Jr. reported from New York, and Christine Negroni from Greenwich, Conn. Reporting was contributed by Sharon Otterman and Micheline Maynard from New York, Caroline Brothers from Paris, Alexei Barrionuevo from Buenos Aires, Brian Knowlton from Washington, and Andrew Downie from São Paulo, Brazil.

[White Knight]

Swish - the Airbus fleet at EK has manual ELT switch on the overhead panel just for your info...

[Pooh Bear]

betpump5

There are various military, civilian, remote or manned underwater vehicles that can undertake recovery from depth.
Of course. We have all seen Titanic. there are small capsules that can be sent down to depths in the Mariana's Trench. But I'm talking about a salvage operation- not just a documentary for Wildlife on One.

As far as I know, there is no apparatus that would be able to salvage an engine for example sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic.

I doubt an engine was the problem and would not need to be salvaged.


The TWA wreckage was salvaged quite well due to its relative proximity to land. But this is different.

My educated guess would be to purely focus on the FDR and salvage that.

I agree. Bits of the Air India terrorist crash were recovered from mid-Atlantic were they not ?


Quote:

betpump5

You are completely wrong. No one s***** about with weather just to get home and/or for costs. Whether you are in a C-152 or an airliner.

But we already have evidence of the captain reporting serious turbulence to base. Why, is another matter.



luck7711

Aviation experts said the risk the plane was brought down by lightning was slim.

"Lightning issues have been considered since the beginning of aviation. They were far more prevalent when aircraft operated at low altitudes. They are less common now since it's easier to avoid thunderstorms," said Bill Voss, president and CEO of Flight Safety Foundation, Alexandria, Va.

He said planes have specific measures built in to help dissipate electricity along the aircraft's skin.

"I cannot recall in recent history any examples of aircraft being brought down by lightning," he told The Associated Press.


Well, he's talking out of his bottom then.

http://www.google.com/search?client=...utf-8&oe=utf-8 (http://www.google.com/search?client=opera&rls=en&q=helicopter+north+sea+crash+lightning&sourceid=opera&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8)

Unless he doesn't consider helicopters as 'aircraft'.

[The Green Goblin]

It would have to be a pretty severe event for an aircraft to breakup from turbulence. After spending most of my time flying in the tropics during wet season buildups and storms I have a fairly good idea of what an aircraft can handle. From flying around in these conditions in single engine Cessna 210 type aircraft to operating in the soup with no weather radar fitted flying BE58 and PA31 single pilot I.F.R. Now I fly multi engine turbine aircraft multi crew at fight levels quite often in the middle of it. I think we should give the aircraft more credit for being most capable in these types of conditions.

If its an electric fault, I would assume that would be because the generators were not providing current which makes me wonder in turn if the donks were turning the generators to supply the current. The biggest hazard around severe weather is not in my opinion lightning or turbulence for that matter but severe airframe icing and hail, as attested by recent events in the states and double engine failures in the past.

Whatever the cause, my thoughts are with the family's of not only those involved in the accident, but those of every aviation family with a partner and rug rats at home. We as an industry do not need something like this, especially now. I just hope the victims families get the closure they deserve and this whole affair does not become a media circus as attested by swine flu and the GFC.

GG

[PaleBlueDot]

One question from an electronics engineer. I understand that most problematic element in any security enhancement, or indeed any change in aircraft design, is mostly centered on extensive testing that is required on one hand, and the need for it to be integrated in an already extremely complex system. However, if we add system that is very small, autonomous, and only physically attached to some external part of the aircraft, than the cost and time necessary for its introduction would not be so big.

It would be very easy to add external device with internal GPS that can send aircraft position every 5 minutes or so over its own satellite uplink. It would need only power from the plane, nothing else. No attachment to any other aircraft system. No plane would be lost ever again, anywhere. Rescue effort can begin immediately, even at the first hint of a problem. Some lives would be saved and psychological problems of relatives and possible survivors would be much easier. No survivor can feel that he is lost or abandoned for the moment. It’s that easy. Technical problems are insignificant, cost of the unit also. No significant change to aircraft needed. It is not necessary to calibrate it, control, or maintain. It is simply kind of external, autonomous satellite mobile phone with included GPS attached to whatever part of the plane is most easily adapted for that purpose.

Is it possible to implement something like that?

[michael hammond]

Just a general query (never seen this arise before):

Purely hypothetically, one is just quietly driving along in the middle of the night in the middle of ANY major ocean and one sees flames on the ocean.

Is there any protocol? If there is sufficient fuel and weather permitting, does one investgate, i.e. circle or reduce altitude?

Who or what makes protocol for this sort of thing?

mike

[wasteofcargospace]

PaleBlueDot
Aircraft are already fitted with exactly such a device, it's called an ELT. Although it doesn't report it's position constantly it is designed to start transmitting in the case of a catastrophe.

[Pontius Navigator]

Michael, most probably. It might be an oil rig simply venting gas, so you would check your charts. It might be a tanker on fire, so you would check your radar. It might be a meteor or a satellite, so you might note and observe and consider diverting to search.

[peefactor]

I think PaleBlueDot is referring to something more like the ADS-B system. I hope it becomes more common or even mandatory for all flights outside radar coverage.

ADS-B.com (http://www.ads-b.com)

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

To Mike Hammond,

I would suggest -
Report the event to ATC with exact position, any additional references, or observations...incidental additional info...e.g. appears to be a ship ...relative posn...to 'flames' or whatever.

It has been known for a flare to be sighted by an airliner - a pax in one case, referred to crew, reported to ATC, SAR notified, and an eventual 'happy ending'.:ok:

[transilvana]

This gets to the point of why we still have to use such an old device as HF radio for postioning reports when we all know that we can use our aircraft phone and call OPS or report an emergency for less than 1$/minute. I don´t like flying with no communication, specially in the middle of the any ocean.

Take in mind that HF comm is highly affected by thunderstorms and lighting, probably they tried to call but no answer, shouldn´t be mandatory to have installed a worldwide comm device to communicate on any guard frequency? We are in the electronics era!!!!!

[pilotara]

if there is an electrical failure or problem if i am not mistaken the RAT would deploy. RAT would power some crusial sustems in order for the pilot to have some sort of reference. I am not an airbus expert but just thinking out loud.

[PJ2]

#338

Misd-agin;
What sort of radar management settings are you talking about when you say the cells "are all but invisible on radar"?

At the recommended settings many cells are "all but invisible on radar". For that reason alone most guys don't use the recommended settings and instead set the radar at it's most sensitive settings and work backwards, towards less sensitive settings, from there.

Precisely. Works every time - "manual" calibration at the highest sensitivity then back off to the setting before "auto".

Antenna tilt is crucial to building the whole picture of what's up ahead - of this, more in a moment.

For the general information of the majority here who don't fly or don't fly heavy transports or the route under discussion it is important to understand some basics about radar, specifically the A330's.

To put it more succinctly and clearly, the following is offered to SLFs and other interested individuals who do not desire to second-guess any accident crews' decisions in advance of the facts or posit theories based upon guesswork but who instead seriously wish to learn, and who may wonder what radar techniques are routinely used and what radar can and cannot do. The following is standard equipment in an airline pilot's toolkit and is, or should be, unremarkable in terms of knowledge.

I am referencing ONLY the A330 radar here. The knowledge/statements are for information only and are not definitive. That's what the AOM and your company's MANOPs are for. A lot of this comes from Dave Gwinn's "How Radar Works", as well as just plain experience.

First, it should be understood that reading the radar signal is somewhat of a practised art and, like reading DFDRs and QARS requires some experience before interpreting the signal can be done well.

The proper use of digital, flat-plate radar requires an understanding of the nature of the signal and practical experience to interpret the returns with accuracy in order to plan a route through a line of thunderstorms or how much to avoid a thunderstorm by. The reasons for this will become clear.

Radar only senses (returns signals from) water. Radar does not detect "clouds" per se because some clouds, especially high ones do not contain moisture but only ice crystals which reflect radar signals very poorly.

Radar does not detect snow effectively enough for use/avoidance. I believe radar detects super-cooled liquid water but I cannot reference same in anything I've read.

The techniques for use of radar when pointing the antenna above the freezing level are different than when pointing below the freezing level.

Radar cannot detect CAT, (clear air turbulence - even if there is a 'doppler' mode on the installation - I've never seen that mode work successfully - anyone?). Radar may detect ice crystals but very poorly. Radar is not used to detect other airplanes or birds.

The A330's radar return is presented digitally in 3 colors - green, amber and red. I cannot quote the density of moisture which returns each color. Crews are advised to avoid anything in amber.

Radar returns can seem to exaggerate moisture content close in, (40nm scale and smaller). What can look "serious" on the 20nm scale can reduce or disappear on the 80nm or 160nm scale.

Avoidance:
A rule of thumb, (and it is only that), is to avoid strong (red) returns by at least 10nm found below the freezing level and 20nm above.

Signal attenuation:
Thunderstorms being seen on the radar can block thunderstorms behind those returning the radar signal until one is either past, over (not bloody often!) a thunderstorm, or the thunderstorm is dying and gets out of the way of the next ts's in line. Picking one's way in a line of ts's is difficult work in a rapidly changing environment.

Radar antenna tilt:
The A330's radar is IRS-stabilized so regardless of the pitch attitude, the radar is always "level" with the horizon, (in quotes because, to be accurate, there is more than one definition of 'horizon'. But practically speaking, at zero degrees tilt, the radar is pointed to the horizon we normally see regardless of pitch attitude.

The A330's radar beam is about 2.84deg wide, (3deg for all practical purposes - same with the 340 and 320 I believe - check with the AOM). That means that antenna tilt must be used frequently to scan up and down for moisture which indicates ts activity.

The 1-in-60 rule can be used to guage a rough altitude of the signal being returned by moisture, which, depending upon it's shape, (hooked, curled, tightly-banded with amber/red etc), indicates convective activity.

A quick calculation for a very rough altitude at which the radar's beam center is pointing is given by the formula, antenna tilt x distance (on the radar screen or, in the case of the A330, the ND scale) x 100. For example, at 1deg down-tilt, the center of the radar beam at 80nm in front of the aircraft is 8000ft below the "horizon", (practically speaking, "below the aircraft"), and at 160nm ahead, the beam-center is 16,000t below the aircraft.

Because the beam is about 3deg wide, the returns are, effectively, 3 x the distance x 100. At 80nm, a 3deg beam is 24,000ft wide.

By scanning "up", one can just catch the highest altitude at which water (not water vapour) is present, knowing that convective activity can go higher. Practically speaking again, a tilt of 3deg "UP" puts the bottom of the radar beam on the horizon. A zero-tilt means the radar is scanning 1.5deg above the horizon and 1.5deg below. One can easily work out the heights scanned at varying distances ahead of the aircraft from there.

Eighty nautical miles is okay for avoidance but 160nm is preferable as it provides a smaller detour angle and also permits one to see thunderstorms attenuated by the ones in front, much earlier.

By taking frequent "slices" up and down and using this knowledge, one can begin to build a slightly better picture of the convective activity ahead, that contains moisture.

All this said, every airline pilot knows that it is not good strategy to attempt to outclimb (overfly) a thunderstorm. We know that the height of convective activity can exceed the radar returns sometimes by a substantial margin and that when such activity is stopped in it's climb by the tropopause, if the thunderstorm is severe enough the resulting overhangs can contain hail thrown from the center of the building storm, so avoiding the overhangs by a wide margin is done.

We know that strong to very violent turbulence is indicated by curling red returns, (vortexes, essentially), as do hooks and very tight-grades (narrow bands of amber-against-red signals).

Every airline pilot knows that radar is used for weather avoidance, not weather penetration.

A moon-lit night provides excellent viewing of convective activity. Often one can, along with the distant tell-tale lightning, see the actual storms and, using radar, pick one's way between the build-ups. For the info of those that don't fly, it's done every day, thousands of times, with unremarkable success.

These techniques are not definitive. Within a reasonably narrow band defined by the radar installation itself, varying approaches to using and reading radar are used.

My only speculation at this point would be, whatever else the operating AF crew was doing as part of their SOPs for such weather, they were almost certainly looking out the windscreen while using the radar as described. As to the rest, I cannot fathom how, and why, anyone would speculate here or anywhere as to what happened, under the present state of knowledge.

PJ2

[CV-580]

replying to Torquewrench's post regarding Carnivore, Mentor and the National Reconnaissance Office, if it's signals, if I am not mistaken, it is the province of the National Security Agency, not the CIA or NRO.

Sky King

[Darkrampage]

pilotara
if there is an electrical failure or problem if i am not mistaken the RAT would deploy. RAT would power some crusial sustems in order for the pilot to have some sort of reference. I am not an airbus expert but just thinking out loud.

Correct, however I am thinking that if there was some sort of catastrophic electrical failure (ie. BAD lightning strike) then the RAT wouldn't have had anything to power (ie. computers suffered current spike and died along with any other electrical system).

[Pooh Bear]

mary meagher

Hajik also refers to the l999 composite K-21 glider brought down over Dunstable; and I mentioned before that the UK Air Accident investigation found that the control rods were melted by the voltage of the strike, a more powerful one than anticipated by current airliner design.


Voltage melts nothing. It's CURRENT that does it. Please stick to science. Of course you have to have a voltage to make a current flow but it's not that simple. You can be sure there's PLENTY of voltage in ANY lightning strike. The released charge results in the current that does the damage. The bigger the cloud, the larger the charge and hence current.

That why a human can touch a Van der Graaf generator at say 2 MV and just get a 'shock', the charge / current is too low to do any damage.

Voltage is NOT the problem.

Graham

[Bus429]

if there is an electrical failure or problem if i am not mistaken the RAT would deploy. RAT would power some crusial sustems in order for the pilot to have some sort of reference. I am not an airbus expert but just thinking out loud

The RAT would only be useful if the infrastructure it feeds electrically - essential/emergency buses - is not compromised.

[Capn Bloggs]

PJ2, and excellent post from someone who obviously knows their stuff. We used the x100 rule in the Mirage III O to work out other fighter's relative altitudes, and I often use the "short of the ground-line" technique to spot buildups ahead. Put the near edge of the groundline at 80-ish miles and wait for the nasties to appear just inside that. Over the water, it's easier.

[PJ2]

Capn Bloggs;
I often use the "short of the ground-line" technique to spot buildups ahead. Put the near edge of the groundline at 80-ish miles and wait for the nasties to appear just inside that. Over the water, it's easier
Yup. That brings to memory the DC8's, and later the 727's analogue radar - that technique worked like a charm. I also recall the small "band" of slightly different signal on the screen that seemed to indicate the drift-angle of the aircraft...not sure that's what it was, but it seemed to work!

[joehunt]

PJ2

Concur with the above. In VMC, the mark 1 eye ball is as good as anything else.

As far as trying to out climb WX, it is as bad to try and out climb wx as to fly through. We are talking G protection, here.. Better to consider descending a few thousand feet than climbing, if you know the going is going to be tough.

I have watched in amazement at some experienced Captains, considering to climb above wx. A possible fatal error, when G protection is sacrificed.

The aircraft will and is designed to take "one hell of a hammering". The trouble comes when you stall out.

[PJ2]

joehunt;

Re descending, yeah, all else being equal - depends on what the SAT is doing as you know, but climbing over - nope- concur for all the reasons given.

This brings up the issue of obtaining clearance from the oceanic controller and the FANS-1 item someone raised earlier, (ADS-B and CPDLC)...I don't think the area he was in is ADS-equipped yet, is it? If so, that telemetry would be of use, of course and I would expect that data to be captured now. I recall using both ADS and CPDLC on the Pacific as early as 2005 (or '6) and it worked for beautifully for weather diversions and altitude changes...quick, and painless unlike the HF.

[somepitch]

PaleBlueDot,

The satellite position reporting system you describe already exists in many inexpensive forms, and has been made mandatory by many agencies in Canada for aircraft deployed on firefighting missions, etc. Unit includes an internal GPS, with a small antenna that (in helicopters at least) can often be mounted on the dash, and sends position reports at a user determined frequency (e.g. 30 sec, 2 min, etc). There are many different companies making these units, here's a few...

http://http://www.latitudetech.com/
http://http://www.blueskynetwork.com/
http://http://www.skyconnect.aero/

Obviously it would be a much bigger undertaking to mount these on a fleet of airliners than it would a helicopter, which is where I've seen them used, but its unfortunate a tool like this does not appear to have been on this flight.

[Flapsnegative]

At about the time in question, there was in the DIKEB area (see map above) a SE-NW oriented pack of clouds, which in the moonlight from the low 7 o'clock position I would not identify as CB or squall line, more like a thick fog/haze area, but which showed up on wx radar as a thick (ylo/red) and continuous line about 20 NM thick and possibly extending to the TASIL area. At 370 or 380 we diverted 30 NM west of the airway, a bit shaky but not too bad. No lighting activity noted.

It was indeed difficult to switch from Atlantico to Dakar HF, in fact we had no contact until about 1:30 into their airspace.

Condolances to the crew and passenger's family.

[Paulairside]

In view of the difficulty mentioned in clearly identifying thunderstorms with radar at night, shouldn't it now be standard to issue each aircraft or crew with a set of nightvision goggles or some such device to help visually identifiy where the activity is?

[Tiddly Eater]

On a recent MY A330 flight we boarded with broken APU and shortly after TO lights and other cabin electrics failed. We were advised that the the "generator had tripped". They reset generator and shortly afterwards all lights went out again. Notwithstanding more than half a dozen resets, we spent the remaining 3 plus hours until touchdown in darkness. We were told that there was a serious problem with the generator.

Apart from a number of questions this may raise, I was reliably informed by A330 driver that no more than ONE reset is recommended due to vulnerability of wiring in A330.

[DaveReidUK]

It would be very easy to add external device with internal GPS that can send aircraft position every 5 minutes or so over its own satellite uplink.

Ironically, the aircraft in question, which like most modern jet airliners was fitted with ADS-B, would have been squittering its position, altitude, groundspeed and ROC/ROD at half-second intervals continuously during the flight on 1090MHz...

[Almag]

They have stretched it and stretched it. I am afraid to say that at some stage there had to be this sort of incident. (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Twin-Engine-Jet-Accident-Bound-To-Happen-Ex-BA-Captain-Tells-Sky-News-Range-Had-Been-Stretched/Article/200906115292987?lpos=World_News_News_Your_Way_Region_3&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15292987_Twin-Engine_Jet_Accident_Bound_To_Happen%3A_Ex_BA_Captain_Tells_S ky_News_Range_Had_Been_Stretched)
Former BA captain Eric Moody said a twin-engine accident was inevitable
(quote from the sky.com news website)

Someone needs to have serious words with this "airline professional" as the facts of this accident are still unknown, but EVERYTHING at the moment indicates an electrical short circuit, hence if this "captain" has any knowledge of Airbus, he would know this same scenario could happen to the A340 and A380 both 4 engined aircraft! Please "captain" Moody refrain from any suggestive comments about 2 engined aircraft until all the facts are known. This is very unprofessional behaviour suggests now that twin engine ETOPS operations are responsible for this accident, whilst it could still have NOTHING TO DO with twin engine operations. :mad:
We could instead also argue the safety of commercial fly-by-wire aircraft! Unlike our military counterparts, we don't have the option of escape when things go horribly wrong..........


When the 330 suffers complete electrical failure from the generators, a ram air turbine would deploy and provide electrics in an electrical emergency configuration wich powers mainly essential instruments on the captains side and other essential electrical equipment, like computers.

Furthermore if the ram generator also would be unavailable flight on batteries only would be possible, since I'm not an 330 pilot. I don't know how long these would have to last for.

As a fly-by-wire aircraft (A320/330/340/380), the 330 relies on it's computers to control the flight control surfaces... with a complete electrical failure, there is a last resort: mechanical backup, wich gives the pilot control of the rudder and the horizontal stabilizer. This is designed to make it possible for the pilots to fly straight and level, TO RECOVER THE FAILED COMPUTERS. Mechanical backup is not designed to fly and navigate the aircraft. Whilst possible, it is hard to do even in still air.

The scenario mentioned, suggests the 330 ended up in heavy turbulence and the reports also suggest a lightning strike, that caused short circuit of electrical systems. This Indicates that flight AF447 ended up in a CB. In the possible scenario of the aircraft ending up with no electrics, flying on mechanical backup, in the severe turbulence of a CB the poor pilots wouldn't have had a fighting chance to regain control over the aircraft...

A scenario I've always mentioned (always waived off by trainers and experienced Airbus pilots and of course statistics as a very very unlikely event) and I as an Airbus pilot have been scared of ever since I've transferred from Boeing aircraft...

My deepest sympathy goes out the the crew, passengers and friends and relatives. Let's hope that the flight crew did manage to regain control of the aircraft and managed to ditch safely somewhere on the atlantic.

:sad:

[discuz]

These are two ACARS messages from F-GZCP on the night it disappeared:

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: F-GZCP [Airbus A332]
Message label: _ Block id: 0 Msg no: S72A
Flight id: AF0447 [GIG-CDG] [Air France]
----------------------------------------------------------[ 01/06/2009 00:53 ]-

ACARS mode: R Aircraft reg: F-GZCP [Airbus A332]
Message label: 2F Block id: 0 Msg no: M14A
Flight id: AF0444 [CDG-GIG] [Air France]
Message content:-
#0936/+47.31-001.30
----------------------------------------------------------[ 31/05/2009 11:36 ]-

(www.acarsd.org (http://www.acarsd.org)) With ACARS messages being listened to routinely by enthusiasts, I'd be surprised the later 4 minute exchange would not have been picked up somewhere.

Am I correct in thinking that the ACARS system also allows for pilot input into the messages? Thus the crew could have been communicating through ACARS if all other radio communication was not received.

A message from the same a/c on May 11 for example reads: MAINTENA BJR.EN CABINE TOILET L54 FUITE DESSOUS LAVABO NIVEAU EVAC.+SIEGE 4K INOP ELEC.MERCI CDB CAMUS

[PJ2]

DaveReidUK;
Ironically, the aircraft in question, which like most modern jet airliners was fitted with ADS-B, would have been squittering its position, altitude, groundspeed and ROC/ROD at half-second intervals continuously during the flight on 1090MHz...
Yes, concur, but only in FANS-1 areas. I am starting to come to the conclusion that the area in question is not FANS-equipped, (see comments re HF by Flapsnegative just a few back).

That is not an area in which oil wells are found. Thus, re "flames seen by TAM", there is a very outside possibility that such may have been picked up by satellite, although obscuration by cloud could be an issue.

[golfyankeesierra]

Extensive post PJ2, but for the completeness I would like to add "use of gain" and "black spots".

Gain: like other modern radars (post 1980's), the A330 radar is a low energy (weak) radar. Gain is the intensity of the radaroutput and is preset in auto-mode but that doesn't give a clear picture so often you use it in max gain; that pinpoints the cells more clearly.

Black spots: The radarsignals are reflected by the heavy precipitation in the cells, back to the radar so they never reach the area behind the cells. That means that you'll never exactly know what is behind the first storm untill you passed it.
Often these storm systems are lined up (like a squall line) so once you've passed the cells you are in the clear again, but these tropical storms in the ITF are so extensive that after avoiding the first couple of cells, more will turn up on your radar.

Indeed the radar is not made for weather penetration, but that applie to the cells only. Sometimes you really have to penetrate a weather system and use your radar to avoid the cells.

[ArthurR]

Darkrampage:
Quote:
pilotara
if there is an electrical failure or problem if i am not mistaken the RAT would deploy. RAT would power some crusial sustems in order for the pilot to have some sort of reference. I am not an airbus expert but just thinking out loud.
Correct, however I am thinking that if there was some sort of catastrophic electrical failure (ie. BAD lightning strike) then the RAT wouldn't have had anything to power (ie. computers suffered current spike and died along with any other electrical system).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

All electrical equipment, (computers, ect) are subject to indirect lightening tests, so the chance of all equipment failure is minimum.
The tests are done in a lab by trained independant staff, and an independant witness to oversee the tests and verify the results (have done this myself)

[BOAC]

Flapsnegative - you appear to have been in the area at the time? Was there any chat on 123 about the ride there?

Do you know if the (reported) ?TAM? a/c report of 'fire sighted' was reported on 121, HF or 123?

Have there been any statements yet from AF about MEL items on the a/c?

Apologies to all if I have missed these queries, but the thread is already going the 'way of all'.

[PJ2]

golfyankeesierra;

Thanks for adding some thoughts; concur on "gain" and lines in the ITCZ - mentioned "black spots" but not well so thanks for making the point clearer.

I think it's crucial for non-aircrews who are genuinely interested to know a bit about how this work is done so that more intelligent and helpful questions can be put. Perhaps the thread may return to an enquiring stance which values curiosity over the ego being expressed in individual pet theories and ill-considered speculations at this stage of affairs about what happened.

BOAC
"Have there been any statements yet from AF about MEL items on the a/c" - excellent question - was wondering too.

The way of all threads......yup, (heavy sigh) but the mod's doing great work, I see...

[Mr Quite Happy]

@ Willoz269 Terrorism is far more unlikely (given the current political climate) on a French jet than on an American jet...but still possible....terrorism follows a cause (however they justify it)...it is just that in the current political climate, there is no cause against France in International politics....which makes a bombing unlikely, but still possible

No cause against FR in Intl politics? France, like 46 other countries are in Afghanistan. It has 3000 troops there, Australia has 1500 and that was enough to justify the Bali bombing so what makes France immune? Algeria and a long history is another example of Intl politics...

The fact is however that I agree with you, this is almost def not a terrorist bombing, not least for the apparent failure of anyone (credible) to try and take credit for it.

However, its not just terrorists that plant bombs, criminals, drug lords, insurance fraudsters, governments have all – historically – brought down passenger planes to kill one or all people on a flight for various reasons. Bombs are the number 1 way to bring down an aircraft and the best place to do that is over the ocean to prevent follow up investigations.

That practically AF’s first words on the subject were “its not a terrorist attack” or words to that effect is the standard airline industry opening line because nobody in the industry wants people to stop flying. That the news media can only think in terms of bombs=terrorists=denial=weather=lightning strike is a bit of a pity, and why I came to PPRUNE and not BBCnews.co.uk. But just because the media isn’t thinking about it doesn’t mean that the authorities aren’t on the case - just as they are scanning the passenger list for potential bombers they'll also be scanning the list for potential targets - judges, politicians, criminal kingpins, celebrities, gingers etc..

My thoughts are with all concerned and I hope a quick investigation. If my (unlikely but not impossible bomb) theory turns out to be correct I am sure the French DGSE will be on the case and I cannot think of anyone else possibly apart from Mossad I would rather have hunting the globe for a bit of revenge.

[Symbian]

Once coming back from Salvador we encountered a line squall in approximately the same area. As we got closer i.e. about 80 - 160 nm we could see a dark spot on the radar i.e. a clear area of sky and that is where we went. However all hell broke loose as we entered what must have been a dying cell fortunately we where only in it long enough for me to get the engine and airframe ant-icing and ignition on before coming out the other side.

There was a BA behind us who I warned but was to late as they had also entered it as did TAP behind them. We spoke to them afterwards and they also had no returns on their radar

We were lucky in that it was very short lived and that the cell was in its decaying stages. As you can imagine there was a long discussion about what had happened between the three of us that where on the flight deck that night. The conclusion was that there was nothing we could have done to avoid it as there were no returns on radar and it was pitch black night so no chance of a visual sighting.

With regards to use of radar when I am CM1 I generally keep my radar on 80 with .5 down tilt with CM2 on the next range up. If I start getting returns I go down a scale when the returns are half way down my screen. With the CM2 also coming down that way i get the strongest returns for avoidance whilst using the CM2 to pick a route around what might be behind.

[DaveReidUK]

Please "captain" Moody refrain from any suggestive comments about 2 engined aircraft until all the facts are known.

Clearly you have absolutely no idea who this guy is.

You are referring to (probably) the only airline pilot in history to have flown a 747 in glider mode. He is as entitled as anyone I can think of to express his opinion on how many engines it's good to have available to relight, whether or not engine failure is implicated in this accident.

[Roidelstein]

DaveReid

I think you have missed the point.

We can all have plenty of respect for what Capt Moody acheived that day, but it is far too early for him to blame this event on anything to do with ETOPS - how can anyone even hint that that was a factor without more evidence?

[Capt Groper]

I believe that the A/C had only recently had a hanger visit.

Could a spanner have been left in a sensitive location? It has recently happened to an A380 after delivery. A little rocking and rolling during CB avoidance could allow this excellent conductor to come in contact with a high current Bus bar.

The other problem in the past with unintentionally entering CBs was the WX radar display dimmer left in the minimum position. Highly unlikely that both could be left in the same position. Some airlines ask that the PFD and ND CRT displays be reduced to min to extend their serviceability. But unfortunately some crews turn both the ND and WX dimmers to the minimum position. The WX, as per SOPs, is off so there is no need to turn the WX dimmer down.

The next crew may be unaware as all would appear normal unless there was lightning seen to alert then to look ahead on the WX and realize that the dimmer was turned right down.

[Avman]

Some of you may be missing the point about the ETOPS factor. It's not so much the 2 v 4, but the fact that ETOPS constraints may have contributed in the flight having to flight plan and take a less than optimum routing in relation to the severe weather in the area. A four holer may have had more routing options available.

[midnight cruiser]

Back on page 5, I pondered whether there was any history of rollback on CF6s. I could vaguely remember a safety notice when I was a user of CF6s, and I've found it in the FAA SAIBs.

This Special Airworthiness Information
Bulletin (SAIB) advises you, owners and
operators of all aircraft equipped with
General Electric Aircraft Engines (GE)
CF6-80C2 and CF6-80E1 series turbofan
engines of reports of on-going engine
flameout events during flight and two recent
incidents involving dual engine flameouts on
twin engine airplanes. These engines are
installed on Boeing B747, B767, and MD11
series airplanes and Airbus A300 and A330
series airplanes.

Background
Since the early 1990’s, there have been 32
reported flameout events on airplanes with
CF6-80C2 and CF6-80E1 series turbofan
engines. Two of these events involved total
power loss with a subsequent in-flight relight.
(Source : NE-07-01 October 12, 2006 Special Airworthiness Information Bulletins (SAIB) (http://www.faa.gov/aircraft/safety/alerts/SAIB))

Rollback occurs due to super-cooled water droplets in the vicinity of cu-nimbs. Just to throw a hypothesis in the pot, - ...Double engine failure, electrical load shedding and steady depressurisation (no more engine bleed air) = automatic ACARS message. Controlled descent on standby instruments, but an almost impossible ditching in the dark, with a break up on touchdown.

[Carnage Matey!]

What I find disturbing is I have heard from informed sources, this.

"If the computers are knocked out by e.g., a voltage surge or spike, the crew are unable to control the aircraft."

Your "informed sources" are not very well informed.

It would be interesting to learn the content of the stream of maintenance messages. Were the failing systems in close proximity to each other? The space shuttle that disintegrated on re-entry registered a series of proximate failures before the catastrophic break up. Could the maintenance messages be indicative of a spreading fire in the avionics taking down systems one by one?

[Wiley]

Certainly not an issue in this accident, but the comments about crews leaving radar switches in the dim position brings me to ask: how many of you fly along at night or in IMC (as I've seen many FOs doing) with 'TERRAIN' selected rather than radar?

It seems this is being taught by some trainers. Call me old fashioned, but I really don't like the practice.

[PUG128]

@Stall Pusher:
Ok, now with a 'decent' internet access I found the info I was looking for.

F-GZCB <- grounded at Bangalore for some days with elec. problems
F-GZCP <- AF447

./J

[Munnyspinner]

I'm sorry but your all just as bad as each other and no better than Capt. Moody. It is all pure speculation as to the cause -even if it be informed speculation. There is unlikley to be a single cause for the loss of this aircraft and those on board. It does look as if weather may have been one factor and that there is evidence of loss of lx shortly thereafter. More than that is guesswork.

A ditching at night would be difficult for any crew, however experienced even when the sea state is calm. No wreckage has yet been located which doesn't mean anything except that a debris trail would be expected if the A/C broke up. If a dicthing was successful or then one would expect that EPRIB would have been activated or that there would be evidence of the ditching, rafts Lifejackets etc. seatcusions, plastic panels etc. which would by now have been located. There have now been reports of burning wreckage close to the expected track of the Aircraft - although this was from the commander of an aircraft inbound to Brasil who at the time was unaware of the accident - "'There is information that the pilot of a TAM aircraft saw several orange points on the ocean while flying over the region ... where the Air France plane disappeared"

Sadly, the situation doesn't look good.

[Almag]

WEIDO SALT

I am not a "fly by wire" man.

What I find disturbing is I have heard from informed sources is this.

"If the computers are knocked out by e.g., a voltage surge or spike, the crew are unable to control the aircraft."

The Titanic? Hmmm... Hasn't it been stated by ABI's the A380 is "uncrashable"? Maybe they might take this opportunity to amend that statement, that reeks of arrogance, a little.


If all the electrics fail and the computers get knocked out, the airbus has a last resort: mechanical back up. It's only desinged to make it possible for the crew to remain straight and level flight, to recover any lost computers. Navigating and flying the aircraft to a safe landing in mechanical back up is probably as difficult as trying to land an aircraft with no flight controls on only it's engines.....

Mechanical back up, would indeed not give pilots sufficient control in extreme weather and turbulence conditions. Try to fly straight and level in these conditions with full control authority!

As this scenerio has always been waived off as "impossible" it is starting to look like it has indeed now happened... plenty to think about there in Toulouse

[MUNT]

RE: Terrorism - Surely if it were the case an organisation would take responsibility? Otherwise, wouldn't its purpose be defeated?

On radars - Someone mentioned it earlier, but blackspots can produce some pretty heinous conditions. I'm not sure about the 330s radar, but on some of the older 744s i've seen wx literally 'pop' onto the screen within 20nm, being hidden previously by other walls of wx. In areas of exteme activity, i.e. frontal lines, tropical depressios, this could be potentially dangerous, with nowhere to turn...

I hope the investigators can ascertain the cause.

[Avman]

But don't forget, operations would push these aircraft as close to the most cost effective routings possible as well!

Surely, not through known severe weather! When I recently flew ATL-TPA we were informed by the F/D prior to departure that we would take a weather avoidance route which would (and did) add about 10 mins to the normal flight time. This on what is generally a short 1 hour flight!

[ktm11]

Has anyone here found out what the electrical faults which grounded this AF A330 in Bangalore were? Parts had to be shipped out for the repair. Was it anythng to do with the weather radar?

Is there any legal requirment to turn back or land if you have to fly through severe storms with no radar to make your destination, or is it just the commander's discretion?

If due to an electrical failure the AF A330 had lost its weather radar, this could explain how it possibly suffered severe turbulence that may have contributed to the accident.

If I remember correctly,a few months back the crew of a Qantas 744 was forced to rely on weather reports from an Air New Zealand 772 when its own radar broke down and a Qantas A333 on its way to Shanghai from Sydney was force to turned back after a weather radar malfunction on board. So I guess there are legal requirement.

[Almag]

Surely, not through known severe weather! When I recently flew ATL-TPA we were informed by the F/D prior to departure that we would take a weather avoidance route which would (and did) add about 10 mins to the normal flight time. This on what is generally a short 1 hour flight!

I said CLOSE to most cost effective routings, no implications of taking it through severe weather... and even if operations planned it, the authority lies with the captain/crew to accept the routing or not!

[discuz]

ACARS messages regularly contain text input by flight crew, not just automated messages. Could the crew have tried to communicate via ACARS, if all other radio transmissions were out or not received?

Would that account for the 4-minute ACARS exchange AF is talking about?

[thapr2]

Did the pilot of the TAM aircraft who saw several orange points on the ocean while flying over the region comment on the weather conditions at the time???

[Boomerang_Butt]

Sorry if this has been mentioned already- the posts keep changing & disappearing as I read-

I was under the impression that modern aircraft have ELTs which activate on contact with water or at a certain level of deceleration. So far I've heard no mention of any signal/pingers.

In the case of an in-flight breakup, would the ELT not activate then? Does it need either a) water or b)high deceleration g's (or whatever the technical term is) to activate?

From a cabin standpoint we have our portable 406 but I wasn't sure how the fixed one works. Cheers if anyone can clear that up.

[Captain Airclues]

The storms associated with the ITCZ are extremely active, with tops often over FL500 and massive vertical movement. There is often a 'black hole' caused by shielding which looks like a safe route but then closes up once you have become committed. The only option is to avoid the area with whatever deviation is required.

If the aircraft did break up due to severe turbulence then the first item to fail would probably be the engine pylons. This would tie up with the electrical and pressurization failure messages sent via the datalink.

Dave

[DADDY-OH!]

A couple of questions for all the Airbus people on here?

Could the ACARS reported 'SHORT CIRCUIT' be a pre-cursor for the aircraft dropping into the 'ELEC EMERG CONFIG', resulting in the red ECAM message 'LAND ASAP'?

In the 'ELEC EMERG CONFIG' do you still lose AutoPilot, AutoThrust & Flight Director? Is the ALTN LAW at this stage or only after the PNF selects 'LAND RECOVERY?

With the Airbus's having Kapton (please forgive my spelling if spelt wrong) wiring, could the turbulence be sufficiently intense to cause the 'chafe'ing & 'arc'ing that we saw in the SwissAir MD-11 disaster?

I only flew the A330/340's for 3 years & that was quite some time ago, but please PM me if you don't feel you can post your thoughts on open forum.

[abc987]

I am not a "fly by wire" man.

What I find disturbing is I have heard from informed sources is this.

"If the computers are knocked out by e.g., a voltage surge or spike, the crew are unable to control the aircraft."

The Titanic? Hmmm... Hasn't it been stated by ABI's the A380 is "uncrashable"? Maybe they might take this opportunity to amend that statement, that reeks of arrogance, a little.What happens if the mechaincal linkages in a non FBW plane fails? or the control column...
It's similar situation, the things that control the hydraulics can get knocked out either way, however, I would agree there is probably a greater chance that something will go wrong with a complicated computer and electronics than a relatively simple mechanical system....

With the reasons for the crash/disappearance I certainly do not know enough to come up with a solid ideas on what happened... I think that the parties involved are holding alot back from the public...

BTW, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the whole point in the 406MHz ELTs to allow rescuers to find them easier... Did it not work or something?

[theballetbrusque]

DEBRIS floating on the Atlantic Ocean in the area where a missing Air France passenger jet is suspected of crashing has been sighted by crew on a French freighter, Brazilian media has reported.

The sighting by the crew on the Douce France is said to be in the same area off the coast of Senegal where a Brazil TAM airline pilot spotted what was thought to be a burning piece of wreackage.

[aviator_38]

See Air France 447 - AFR447 - A detailed meteorological analysis - Satellite and weather data (http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/)

[poison]

Ladies and Gentlemen, when an Airbus 330 suffers a total electrical failure, flight is still possible through the use of backup. The horizontal stabilizer can be used to sustain flight in the vertical plane until electrics can be restored. The rudder on this particular aircraft would be electrical and therefore control in the horizontal plane can be achieved through the use of asymmetric power. But this is difficult to perform in the best of conditions and if the aircraft entered into a descending roll, a spin could be inevitable and would be unrecoverable unless electrics would be restored.

But let us look at what takes place if a severe lightning strike were to have taken place. There could have been a short circuit of the buses and hence the engine driven generators would drop off line. If the short exist on the buses even the likely hood of restoring power through the APU generator is unlikely.

In this situation, the emergency generator should now come on line and will more than likely be powered by the engine driven pumps and not the RAT. The RAT will only power the emergency generator if there is an unlikely combination of engine failure/failures and short circuiting. This situation is so unlikely that the summary section for the Electrical Emergency configuration does not take into account that the Emergency generator is powered by the RAT and hence that summary can only be used if the emergency generator is being powered by the engine driven pumps.

Now having said all of that is it really likely that the emergency generator could not come online? Did the engine driven pumps fail to get the emergency generator online, and if so, is it likely then that the RAT failied to power the emergency generator after the engine driven pumps could not do its job? Well the answer to this is yes it could happen and this would be indicated by looking up on the overhead panel and seeing a red light next to the SYS for the emergency generator. But highly unlikely I say.

But let us say then that the emergency generator does not come online, there are 2 batteries that can supply minimum power to some of the flight instruments for 25 to probably 30 minutes but the CPC's will not be powered and hence the aircraft will now depressurize.

Did these pilots try and perform some sort of emergency descent with an aircraft which may have had MAN PITCH TRIM ONLY, ie an aircraft that was in backup? If this was the case then the aircraft could have gone into a roll and hence a spin that would have been unrecoverable.

But I believe that one thing is for sure and that is this aircraft had two working engines but with a flight control problem.

[Guara]

This is an interesting analysis, Aviator 38.

Excerpt:

" It appears AF447 crossed through three key thunderstorm clusters: a small one around 0151Z, a new rapidly growing one at about 0159Z, and finally a large multicell convective system (MCS) around 0205-0216Z. Temperature trends suggested that the entire system was at peak intensity, developing rapidly around 2300-0100Z and finally dissipating around dawn. From a turbulence perspective, these cold spots would be the areas of highest concern as they signal the location of an active updraft producing new cloud material in the upper troposphere. "

Cheers

[Captain Galactic]

Severe icing is possible in CB weather down to -50 C

[Guava Tree]

Byalphaindia.
You and I know that it is the duty of aircraft manufacturers, airline operations staff and pilots to deal with even the most extreme weather conditions. Of course we would never blame the weather itself !

[Zappa]

The A330 doesn't have a compass that could depolarize. Only the stby (whiskey-) compass, maybe.

[ECAM_Actions]

Air France CEO mourns crash of flight AF447 with international passengers onboard (http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world/air-france-ceo-mourns-crash-of-flight-af447-with-international-passengers-onboard_100199559.html)

>> Pierre-Henri Gourgeon said Air France flight AF447 had reported “the failure of several onboard computer systems” after flying through an area of “extreme turbulence” prior to air traffic controllers loosing contact with it.

I wonder how many of those were flight control related. Mech backup in "extreme turbulence" with everything that entails is not a situation I'd ever want to be in.

ECAM Actions.

[High 6]

Whilst I will not speculate on what may have happened, I hope that this event will expedite the worldwide coverage of Automatic Dependent Surveillance (ADS) , especially in Oceanic areas where VHF radio and normal radar is non existent. This would greatly assist the search and rescue operations, especially if there are survivors involved.

Whilst it is unbelievable in this day and age that a modern aircraft like the A330 would disappear whilst airborne, it is more unbelievable that the last exact position of the aircraft is not known. All of us aviators should push for the worldwide coverage of remote areas with ADS and other satellite based monitoring.

[Mercenary Pilot]

In this type of crash (from what we know so far) I think the FDR would be of limited use.

I strongly disagree. Straight away the FDR will tell you what G-loads were experienced and at what frequency. This will indicate to investigators the likelihood of turbulence as a major factor.

[marchino61]

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilsr
...thank god accident investigators start their sad tasks without preconceptions...
Since. Bloody. When???

That has got to be one of the most naive posts I've seen on here.

Exactly. They might start without preconceptions, but not without hypotheses - just like the hypotheses presented here. They will then test these hypotheses using the scientific method, until they find one (or maybe more than one) consistent with the facts.

Thus has science and engineering been carried out since the days of the enlightenment.

[Taildragger67]

thapr2,

I strongly suspect the TAM pilot will be interviewed by the investigators. So that will come out.

[ZeBedie]

New information provided by sources within Air France suggests, that the ACARS messages of system failures started to arrive at 02:10Z indicating, that the autopilot had disengaged and the fly by wire system had changed to alternate law. Between 02:11Z and 02:13Z a flurry of messages regarding ADIRU and ISIS faults arrived, at 02:13Z PRIM 1 and SEC 1 faults were indicated, at 02:14Z the last message received was an advisory regarding cabin vertical speed. That sequence of messages could not be independently verified.

If the aircraft had been flipped onto its back, Alternate Law, ADIRU and ISIS failures would make some sense. Then the crew find themselves in a monster CB, at night with no flight instruments, so they loose control, aircraft breaks up, hence loss of pressurisation?

[betpump5]

Straight away the FDR will tell you what G-loads were experienced and at what frequency. This will indicate to investigators the likelihood of turbulence as a major factor.

That is correct. However the angle I am coming from is whythe a/c was in this precarious situation in the first place. (And this is why I don't want to speculate).

But, you do not magically find yourself in the middle of a storm. And if you do, you would have worked out that your a/c would still be within limits. So I am looking at one of the the possibility that there may have been a prior weakness in the structure - whether this be an inherent weakness or something like a crack that has occurred during operations.

So yes, the FDR will tells us the conditions at the time, but if an important piece of fuselage/wing is not found, then we may never know what failed.

This is just one of the many things going through my mind. And I didn't really want to say this much as any speculation causes discussions and it may not even be right.

[4PW's]

I read somewhere that Air France 447's wing touched an A320 rudder in a taxi incident prior to departure. The A320's rudder was severely damaged, but AF447's A330 wingtip was not. AF447 departed, and is now missing.

First things first: Did the taxi incident occur?

Answers to big problems or issues are often simple. Here is one possibility: AF447's wing was weakened if not visibly damaged; the airplane suffered stresses during flight via flight in turbulence; the damaged, stressed wing broke off; the airplane plummeted into the sea.

What supports this?

1. Alleged taxi incident involving A320 and AF447.
2. Alleged time delay of four minutes from altitude to impact.
3. No calls from the pilots.
4. Sudden spurt of messages sent to base: multiple system failures.
5. Item 3. and 4. indicate an inflight breakup.
6. Airplanes don't fall out of the sky for no reason.

I don't want to hijack a thread by creating a new one. However, it is my hope the above can be expanded on by professional aircraft engineers and even, God forbid, pilots.

The 117 pages of uninformed drivel on "the other thead" has turned it into a complete farce. Nothing good can come of continuing with it.

[weido_salt]

Oh they will find the position of the boxes I am sure, as they give off a sonar signal for up to 30 days, IIRC.

Whether they can get to them or not is another matter.

[betpump5]

RIO DE JANEIRO - BRAZILIAN media outlets are reporting that debris from the missing Air France passenger jet has been sighted floating on the Atlantic Ocean by the crew of a French freighter.
The Douce France is reported to be in the same area off the coast of Senegal where a Brazil TAM airline pilot was also reported to have seen a burning piece of wreckage

[grebllaw123d]

Having flown the A340 for several years - the 340 has exactly the same flight controls as the A330 - I have to tell you that your statement:

The rudder on this particular aircraft would be electrical and therefore control in the horizontal plane can be achieved through the use of asymmetric power.

is incorrect.
Normally the rudder is electrically controlled, but may - in case of all flight control computers fail for whatever reason - be mechanically controlled (via cables from rudder pedals to hydraulic actuators).

In other words, it is possible to control the aircraft in the horisontal plane by rudder, so no reason for using asymmetrical thrust!

[shangalaing]

Is there a possibility that a 'Blue jet' (atmospheric lightning) could have struck the aircraft causing associated damage to airframe/electronics? Has there been any incidents of this kind of phenomenon affecting aircraft before or ineed any research?

[Gringobr]

I am a humble PPL, 200 hours, but I am English and have lived in Brazil for 20 years
I am a newbie here, but have read this site for years and never commented. I joined because I feel I may be able to contribute with translations from Portuguese, as I work as a professional translator. Feel free to contact me if you wish, no charge of course..
I am not going to comment on possible causes of this terrible accident.

[DADDY-OH!]

Tarman
Well said.


Ivanbogus
Bollocks!

Poison
Thanks for that, so the aircraft is pretty much in 'MECH BACK UP' from the start of 'ELEC EMERG CONFIG.?'

Could a reversion to 'ELEC EMERG CONFIG' with a subsequent inability for the reinstatement of electrical services via the various available emergency back up generators be possible if there was also an 'ELECTRICAL SMOKE' problem that the crew were already dealing with?

I'm not trying to play Devil's Advocate here, Poison, but as a pilot with 20 years service under my belt & over 11,000 hours experience with 9,000 hours on B757/767 & A330/340 aircraft, I can't help but notice similarities with the SwissAir MD-11 crash i.e. Kapton wiring (common to both types)- 'Short Circuit' (reported by ACARS type system)- Loss of all electrics (would lead to our agreed 'Control Problem)'- ELEC EMERG CONFIG (specific to Airbus aircraft)- all for the crew to deal with at FL410, over the Atlantic at night in a violent storm.

I agree with you, a control problem leading to total loss of control with 2 serviceable engines seems the most likely but it's how you get to the 'Control Problem' I'm concerned about.

Even if it was what 'Capt Moody' seems to keep coming back to, the on board (electrical) fire with an attempted controlled ditching scenario, you can't dismiss that this A330 could have been fitted with Kapton wiring (the ones I flew certainly were) as was the Swiss' MD-11. And I think we (pilots as opposed to 'armchair flyers') have all seen on our CRM courses what the flight deck on that doomed MD-11 was like.

I hope to God the investigators get something out of this.

PM me if you don't want to continue this discussion in public.

Cheers.

[eagle21]

Considering the scenario of an upset caused either by a faulty ADIRU or bad weather the crew could have easily found themshelves operating under the ABNORMAL LAW.

ABNORMAL ATTITUDE FLIGHT LAW
A completely different law emerges automatically when the aircraft is in an extreme upset as follows:
* pitch attitude > 50 deg nose up or > 30 deg nose down
* bank angle > 125 deg
* AOA > 30 deg or >-10 deg
* speed > 440 kts or < 60 kts
* mach > M0.96 or < M0.1
The abnormal attitude law is:
- PITCH ALTERNATE with no protection except LOAD FACTOR protection. No automatic pitch trim.
- ROLL DIRECT with full authority
- YAW ALTERNATE
After recovery the flight law reverts to:
- PITCH ALTERNATE law
- ROLL DIRECT law
- YAW ALTERNATE
The aircraft returns to a degraded mode (not normal law as usual) because there is a certain level of suspicion about its ability to control the aircraft (that is how could it have got to the extreme flight state in the first place? The protections should have intervened well before the pitch, bank, AOA, speed and mach limits above).


I wonder what indications the crew have to realise they have entered this abnormal law? It could be very difficult in a bussy and turbulent enviroment to give an adecuate response to this type of scenario.

What are your toughts??

[Kerosene Kraut]

A german aviation mag has a recent map of the suspected crash site (source: Brasilian Air Force) with distances and ATC-regions.
Suche nach Airbus A330 von Air France im Südatlantik - FLUG REVUE (http://www.flugrevue.de/de/zivilluftfahrt/airlines-flugbetrieb/suche-nach-airbus-a330-von-air-france-im-suedatlantik.11007.htm)

[eliptic]

If ever Danny needed an excuse to limit PPRuNe to aviation professionals only

Why you so "serious professional Pilots" with so many concerns about all "non pilot idiots" start your own privet silent pilot network and only let in members with 10000+ hours and scanned pilot license.

speculation exist and will always exist whatever u feel, or is it just to get your own seriousness and ego confirmed?

This morality posts over and over are more pathetic then the others

[Wader2]

Some military aircraft have homing beacons,

Dedicated Search and Rescue Dedicated Search and Rescue aircraft have homing receivers that can be used to home on VHF or UHF beacons.

I am not sure if these work at the bottom of a deep ocean.

They don't, but dedicated anti-submarine aircraft and other dedicated platforms my drop hydrohpones that can detect sonic transmissions.

Is it surprising that large commercial aircraft do not have such devices, especially when operating in areas of non VHF & radar coverage?

No, it would cost money, lots of money, to install such homers in many aircraft. The use of such homers would then require crew training which would increase training time, working hours, require more aircrew etc etc.

However all aircraft are capable of localising a VHF or UHF beacon but they need lots of spare fuel to do so. The technique is simple but I shall not post it here.

PS

FE Hoppy said some mil ac have ULF Homers and no training is needed. I would suggest that some training would be needed but concede it might not be very much. Equipment costs however would remain a significant hit on the bottom line.

[ZeBedie]

At night, probably in cloud, without ADIRU's and ISIS, they were in serious trouble.

[utsav]

A lightning strike may cause an surge which in turn may cause transient electrical faults to be generated. Anybody who has had an APU/Gen trip on him will know that. These faults mostly clear out but some remain on the STATUS page (on EICAS) till the landing gear does a full extension and retraction cycle (i.e. next landing). This status message(s) may have been transmitted by ACARS to maintenance as the ACARS reporting logic does not factor in lightning strikes. It is plausible that the airplane may have had several lightning strikes and that caused several (maybe) erroneous messages to be generated. Also explains the 4 minutes of ACARS transmission (because a regular position report also takes a couple of seconds of transmission (VHF in progress, SATCOM in progress) etc whereas maintenance reports only go by a error code.Time in transmission, only a couple of seconds. 4 minutes of ACARS transmission would almost need a lot of status/failure messages to have been generated simultaneously---signature electrical surge behavior...Saying all this, still not good enough reason to bring an airplane down...

[num1]

The Aviation Herald (http://avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1&opt=0)

New information provided by sources within Air France suggests, that the ACARS messages of system failures started to arrive at 02:10Z indicating, that the autopilot had disengaged and the fly by wire system had changed to alternate law. Between 02:11Z and 02:13Z a flurry of messages regarding ADIRU and ISIS faults arrived, at 02:13Z PRIM 1 and SEC 1 faults were indicated, at 02:14Z the last message received was an advisory regarding cabin vertical speed. That sequence of messages could not be independently verified.

[RealQuax]

@ grebllaw123d: not correct. Newer A330s/340s have 'electrical rudder' as correctly stated by poison.

[poison]

Grebllaw123d,

Yes I do understand that you think that I have made a mistake in my statement but I can assure you that I have not. You see having flown all of the A340 variations, which you may well have only flown the A340-300, I can tell you emphatically that the A340-500 and A340-600 no longer has mechanical backup but rather backup. And yes there is a difference. You see with mechanical backup you have mechanical control over the horizontal stabilizer and the rudder, but with backup you only have mechanical control over the horizontal stabilizer.

This is also the same for the MSN 660 which is now missing. It's flight controls are electrically controlled and are hydraulically operated but the stabilizer can be mechanically controlled. However like I said you would not know this if you only fly the A343 and yes it is the same as some of the older generation A330's but is not the same as MSN 660.

Now an apology is not required from you but please do your homework before you respond next time.

[FE Hoppy]

Wader 2

ULF homing beacons are fitted to some mil aircraft that carry equipment that may need to be recovered. No crew action or training required to operate them.

[grebllaw123d]

OK, I did not know that!

Does it then mean that there is no mechanical backup for the rudder in case all flight control computers fail?

brgds

[Nightrider]

KTM 11, there is only one legal requirement for a functional WX radar on aircraft and this is tailored by every manufacturer for the specific type. Companies publish this requirement in the MEL or DDM (as applicable).
This "law" is only valid before commencing any flight.
When airborne it is the crew which has to decide the best course of action, and yes, there is the possibility that a return may be the best action.

I doubt that the AF crew had a chance to consider this option at all. With all details available here it appears that the wx radar was a "minor" problem they were dealing with.

Being sure that the crew followed law no. 1 precisely, "Fly The Aircraft", they faced a situation not covered in any QRH or manual.

It does not appear that any action they went for helped at all. Even well trained crew, unfortunately, can and will face unrecoverable situations.

[md-100]

I am NOT a bus driver but... reading all posts..

what if :
1) an electrical failure thus ...
2) a restricted (cable driven) surfaces movement and ..
3) weather radar not abailable ?? and maybe
4) a depressurization because of total electrical failure ? and
5) going around some VB tops at 35000 and
6) have to emergency descent with no radar and went into CB

is that scenario possible ??

Is a conclusion I have after reading almost of comments

thanks
MD-100 (fly-by-cable)

[DC-ATE]

golfyankeesierra -
The radarsignals are reflected by the heavy precipitation in the cells, back to the radar so they never reach the area behind the cells. That means that you'll never exactly know what is behind the first storm untill you passed it.

I don't know what 'bands' are being used these days, but your statement implies "X" Band Radar. Why airliners were ever fitted with 'X' Band, I'll never know. With "C" Band that we had, you could 'see' through cells with no problem.

[Ber Nooly]

I think Tim Vasquez' meteorological analysis posted earlier is a very good read. One of the possible scenarios he mentions is that if it encountered a vigorous updraft in a fledgling cell, of which there were quite a few developing at the time, then it wouldn't show on the radar, as the precip wouldn't have had time to develop yet. To me that seems more pausible than lightning, for what it's worth (ie. absolutely nothing)

Air France 447 - AFR447 - A detailed meteorological analysis - Satellite and weather data (http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/)

[Milka]

To have a better understanding of the A330 systems
SmartCockpit - Airline training guides, Aviation, Operations, Safety (http://www.smartcockpit.com/pdf/plane/airbus/A330/systems/0014/)

[eagle21]

I wonder if the last message received by AF would have been LO DIFF PR, meaning the a/c was descending at a very high rate.

Your toughts??

[poison]

OK,

Let's make things a little clearer for everyone so I don't tie myself up and lead people down the wrong path as a result of my wording or not putting in all of the information.

On the 330 Airbus has "Normal Electrics" and "Emergency Electrics", when you have neither one of these situations you are then in what would be considered as as total electrical failure. But do remember that you have battery power but it is terribly limiting.

Even in an Electrical Emergency Configuration you have the Prim 1 and Sec 1 powered and hence control, although it may be in alternate law, is still available in pitch, roll and yaw. Not to mention that on the A330 in an Electrical Emergency Configuration the A330 has Autopilot 1 available, unlike the A340, since this is a requirement for the ETOPS certification.

Now what I was referring to was the total electrical failure which means that all flight computers are not powered. This will now lead to backup. But even with backup you can still have control over the rudder as the rudder is powered by the BCM (Backup Control Module) and this provides yaw damping and direct rudder command with the pedals. The BCM computer has it own electrical generator and is supplied by the Blue or Yellow hydraulic system.

But again let us say that even this BCM failed then the horizontal plane could be controlled by asymmetric power. But to get into this situation is so unlikely. The likely hood of the Electrical Emergency Config not taking place is very unlikely as I said. But if this does not take place then there could be a moment when all 5 computers may not be powered and then Backup will become effective. In backup you have mechanical control over the horizontal stabilizer and the control over the rudder, be it electric through the BCM if it is powered. In backup you are not expected to fly the plane accurately. It is a time when you are meant to restore the flight computers. That means you need to cycle the pushbuttons. But this is only achievable if there is power to the relevant buses. If my memory serves me right even the hot battery bus will power the Prim 1.

Airbus is not perfect but they sure have a heck of a redundant system and for an aircraft to suffer a total electrical failure, ie not to even be in Electrical Emergency Config is bizarre. But even with out this Electrical Emergency Config, no battery power is hard to fathom. And the loss of a BCM which is has its own electrical generator? Nothing is impossible but the situation is highly improbable.

[Road_Hog]

One thing strikes me about this.

Air France immediately claimed that they knew the initial cause for this accident, lightning. I find that as unusual, in most cases airlines remain non commital until they have retrieved the the flight recording devices and any wreckage, unless the pilot has managed to radio in the problem beforehand. But in this instance they immediately came out with the statement that it was lightning.

This gives rise to two options, one AF are guessing and making a claim that they can't substantiate, which could be embarrassing for them if it turns out to be something completely different (especially if it were a bomb, although I am not making any suggestion).

Secondly, they have received a lot more information/data from the airplane (maybe even from the pilots, through ACARS as has already been suggested) than they're letting on.

[Evanelpus]

DEBRIS floating on the Atlantic Ocean in the area where a missing Air France passenger jet is suspected of crashing has been sighted by crew on a French freighter, Brazilian media has reported.

The sighting by the crew on the Douce France is said to be in the same area off the coast of Senegal where a Brazil TAM airline pilot spotted what was thought to be a burning piece of wreackage.

Message 442 above. This was posted over 2 hours ago, has anything more been confirmed?

[abc987]

I wonder if the last message received by AF would have been LO DIFF PR, meaning the a/c was descending at a very high rate.

Your toughts?? I can't imagine ACARS transmitting over SATCOM if the ac was descending at a very high rate (and all that come with doing such things...)
Also, ACARS doesn't have any backup power does it? So if there was a total loss of power causing the flight control systems to even fail, you would assume ACARS would go down as well....
Even odder, why can't they find the ELT (it would be a 406MHz one... right?), did it not work?
It is all very very odd, not enough information.....
For all I know it could be CI611 with load factor protection.....

[Broomstick Flier]

Message 442 above. This was posted over 2 hours ago, has anything more been confirmed?

Indeed.

It has been reported more or less 30min ago that Brazilian Airforce AWACS plane R-99 located some metal parts around 50Nm from the location where the TAM pilot spotted the "fire" and rescue teams are on the way to recover the pieces.

[broadreach]

Folha de Sao Paulo reports Brazil SAR having had radar returns from metallic debris in the vicinity of St Peter & St Paul Rocks, same area the TAM flight saw flames. The article mentions an oil sheen as well, and that positive identification will only be possible when first ships reach the area. I believe they may be referring to first naval vessels, and that the Marfret Douce France may already be in the vicinity.

[abc987]

All of this fire and flames makes it sound almost like they had some sort of control when it hit, or rather not an uncontrolled from high altitude (very high velocity) impact... None of this adds up, although that could be why there was staggered messages from the ACARS, no SATCOM during dive or whatever, then once it manages to establish communications all the messages from during the dive are sent.... This really doesn't make much sense to me.....

Unless ofcourse the wreckage burns after floating back up...

[Minorite invisible]

I find that this incident was treated as a crash much too early. They may have ditched. There may be survivors in life rafts. If they had total electrical failure, they may have ditched hundred of miles from where the electrical failure occurred. The Atlantic Ocean is vast and when they are hundreds of miles from the coast, the rescue planes can only spend a very limited amount of time doing actual searching, having spent a good part of their fuel getting to the search area and needing to keep a large portion to get back to their base. There are very few long range SAR aircraft available. From what I read in the news, France dispatched two aircraft, one Atlantic 2 and one Falcon 50. Thats very few aircraft to be searching the South Atlantic.
What did Brazil send? Their Hercules has long range, but the SAR Embraers 120s and E-99 I saw on the news certainly don't have the range to even reach the mid Atlantic, let alone search it. What did Dakar dispatch, I have no idea.

[jshg]

I've had one very severe turbulence incident on an Airbus A300. In the twelve seconds during which we were out of control, the ECAM was producing a stream of messages for electrical and hydraulic failures, all induced by rapidly-fluctuating G forces. If we'd had datalink I assume these would have been transmitted too.

[Airbubba]

One of the possible scenarios he mentions is that if it encountered a vigorous updraft in a fledgling cell, of which there were quite a few developing at the time, then it wouldn't show on the radar, as the precip wouldn't have had time to develop yet.

As I commented earlier, these cells are not uncommon in the ITCZ in my experience. I leave it to others to discuss at length the radar theory.:)

If the ACARS messages were sent on HF, there is a possibility they were logged by a hobbyist. I would guess the most likely ground squitter would be Albrook. ADS-B would be out of range of ground stations at 1090 MHz but the final track may have been recorded by airborne assets, many coastal areas are patroled by AWACS type aircraft. Some areas, like the western NOPAC, have you keep your squawk after normal radar contact is lost for this reason. Or, so I've been told. With ADS-B, the aircraft sends out a unique identifier regardless of the mode 4 setting.

[lomapaseo]

Unless ofcourse the wreckage burns after floating back up...

give a thought to what TWA800 looked like on the ocean surface from the air.

There are multiple fuel cells on the aircraft, some of which can be opened in an inflight breakup while others are opened when striking the water. Fuel floats and the fire stays above water while the heavy stuff sinks. Lots of airplane bits still float however.

[EchoIndiaFoxtrot]

An awful lot is being made about about the 4 minutes of maintenance messages that were broadcast from the ac. But, would I be right in thinking that these mesaages alone won't provide an awful lot of valuable information, i.e. they won't tell the sequence of events that took place leading to the loss of the ac.

They might provide clues but on their own (without the ADR and CVR data) there is no context or chronological information.

[brendanjr]

A Brazilian Air Force personnel just came out live on Brazilian television saying that search planes have found wreckage 650Km north-east from the Fernando de Noronha archipelago, and searches are now being carried out in that area, at 5 in the morning Brazilia time search planes found various types of wreckage 60Km apart from each-other including an aeroplane seat, some type of oil drum and oil. The Air Force is now working on collecting these items and looking at their serial numbers to be sure they belong to the AF A330.

[billy34-kit]

jtr, if your source are spot on, you are refering at a very very sensitive ''weak'' system on the 330, a multiple faulty IR and ADIRU signal....very very very tricky one, who can easily bring you down!

Remember Quantas last year, they had quite a ride with that one!

[pichu17]

The problem is the size off antena . In c band must be bigest and there are space limitation in the aircraft nose

[Wader2]

I don't know what 'bands' are being used these days, but your statement implies "X" Band Radar. Why airliners were ever fitted with 'X' Band, I'll never know. With "C" Band that we had, you could 'see' through cells with no problem.

One reason for using high frequencies for airborne radar is to reduce the antenna size. An I-band emitter with a 3 degree beam width will have a relatively small dish. This will require a smaller radar bay than lower frequency radars in the C-band. assuming you mean the IEEE C-bandTypical antenna sizes on C-band capable systems ranges from 7.5 to 12 feet (2.5 to 3.5 meters) on consumer satellite dishes,

You also say that the C-band could 'see' through the cells. Could they actually see the cells at all? Clearly, for a weather avoidance radar, you need to see to avoid.

[deSitter]

"flames on water = ditching"

I'm astonished by the stupidity of some of these comments. TWA 800 was blown to pieces in mid-air yet still covered the ocean with burning fuel from the wing tanks. This one known fact should prevent a comment as idiotic as the one above. But as with everything in modern life, facts and logic take second place to foreskin and sensation. We're still basically a horny Aristotelian society whose brains remain at flight idle most of the time.

-drl

[md-100]

from The Aviation Herald (http://www.avherald.com)


"New information provided by sources within Air France suggests, that the ACARS messages of system failures started to arrive at 02:10Z indicating, that the autopilot had disengaged and the fly by wire system had changed to alternate law. Between 02:11Z and 02:13Z a flurry of messages regarding ADIRU and ISIS faults arrived, at 02:13Z PRIM 1 and SEC 1 faults were indicated, at 02:14Z the last message received was an advisory regarding cabin vertical speed. That sequence of messages could not be independently verified."

[lexxity]

Replying to post #487. Ditching has already been discussed and dismissed due to several factors amongst them the weather, the dark and the sea conditions found on the open sea as opposed to somewhere like the Hudson.

I've never sailed across the South Atlantic, only the North and the swells can be awesome, enough to toss a 70,000grt vessel, designed for those conditions, about so I don't see an airframe standing a chance. I do stand to be corrected though.

[RAD_ALT_ALIVE]

Poison,

MSN660, in photos on airliners.net, would clearly appear to have the taller tail of the non-FBW A330. Also, the build date would suggest that it was produced before the FBW tails were added to the A330.

Have a look at the mod status in the front of your FCOM and confirm that MSN 660 was fitted with mod 49144. If it has, then I'll eat humble pie.

[Flight Safety]

Just a thought.

JSHG made the following post:
I've had one very severe turbulence incident on an Airbus A300. In the twelve seconds during which we were out of control, the ECAM was producing a stream of messages for electrical and hydraulic failures, all induced by rapidly-fluctuating G forces. If we'd had datalink I assume these would have been transmitted too.

What if the electronic systems responded erroneously to severe turbulence (source of ACARS messages) as JSHG experienced years earlier, and as a result backed themselves out of the control loop, to the point where the pilots could no longer control the aircraft? In other words, a cascade response of turbulence induced g-force "failures" that weren't really failures, but resulted in reduced flight surface control, in the middle of a severe turbulence encounter?