Air France A330-200 missing

[angelic111]

Reuters headline:

AIR FRANCE JET WITH 215 ABOARD DROPS OFF RADAR, AFP REPORTS

Any one heard anything?

[J-Class]

PARIS, June 1, 2009 (AFP) - - An Air France passenger jet with 215 people on board is missing after dropping off radar over the Atlantic off the Brazilian coast Monday, a Paris airport official said.

[fadedfootpaths]

BBC NEWS | Americas | French plane 'missing off Brazil' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8076848.stm)

[Carnage Matey!]

Aircraft don't just 'drop off the radar', even what little radar there is off the coast of Brazil. What is more of a concern is that it appears the aircraft is now overdue with what appears to be no contact with any other ATC agency along it's route.

[RoyHudd]

Sad news. No need for all and sundry to start with mawkish condolences, etc. It's a given. All professional pilots share concern on such events.

How was the met down that way at the time?

[Frankie_B]

From CDG Arrivals page:

Numéro de vol : AF447
Arrivée attendue à 12:10 * Départ : RIO INTERNATIONA le 31/05/2009 19:00

Arrivée : PARIS le 01/06/2009 11:15
CHARLES DE GAULLE TERMINAL 2 E
Escales : Pas d'escale
Type d'avion : AIRBUS A330-200
Compagnie aérienne : AIR FRANCE

[Hotel Mode]

There isnt any useful radar in the Atlantico FIR, or Dakar for that matter. ATC is very unreliable, but for it to be missing this long is not giood,

[CharlieBrem]

AFP is now reporting:
"Airbus A 330 with 215 passengers disappeared from radar at 0600 gmt off Brazil. It was due to arrive in CDG from Rio at 11h10. An emergency unit has been set up at the airport. "The worry is very great at Roissy (CDG). The plane disappeared from control screens several hours ago. It would be a transponder failure but this sort of failure is very rare and the plane did not land at 11h10 as scheduled," an airport source told AFP. Air France is not responding to queries. "
------
Unfortunately it would have to be more than a transponder failure...

[Stall Pusher]

What radar coverage is there over that part of the Atlantic and would it show fragmentation?

Also would US military satellites have monitored this area?

Does anyone have the weather for the area, was there forecast severe turbulence?

[mark25787]

What route would it take? I assume the majority of the first part of the flight is over the Atlantic and then over Africa/Portugal/Spain for the final part? How far would it have been into the journey when contact was lost?
i.e. is contact more likely to have been lost over sea or land?

[MATaxi]

In response to Mark , if all timings are correct then the A330 lost contact about 3 hours before landing at Paris. The natural route is over water nearly all the way. I would suggest a point some approx 1400 miles from Paris out into the Atlantic to the South-West would be the vaugeist of approximations.

[Kev 1]

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: F-GZCP [Airbus A332]
Message label: _ Block id: 0 Msg no: S72A
Flight id: AF0447 [GIG-CDG] [Air France]

[EvilDoctorK]

Going on those vaguest approximations .. if it was around 0600GMT that was 3hrs before landing which would likely put it somewhere a little N of the Canary Islands off the Moroccan Coast .. If they meant 0600 Paris Time then it would likely be somewhere further south - probalby around the Cape Verde Islands ... either way though along way from Brazil / Brazilian airspace.

Great Circle Mapper (http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=gig-cdg&RANGE=1400mi%40cdg%2C2400mi%40cdg%0D%0A&PATH-COLOR=red&PATH-UNITS=mi&PATH-MINIMUM=&SPEED-GROUND=&SPEED-UNITS=kts&RANGE-STYLE=best&RANGE-COLOR=navy&MAP-STYLE=)

[RoyHudd]

Mid Atlantic weather at Dakar latitude and south from there not good at FL300 and above at the time period. Standard for this time of year. (WX is only one possible factor, but must be considered)

[mark25787]

In response to Mark , if all timings are correct then the A330 lost contact about 3 hours before landing at Paris. The natural route is over water nearly all the way. I would suggest a point some approx 1400 miles from Paris out into the Atlantic to the South-West would be the vaugeist of approximations.


That's going to make a SAR operation difficult. Wonder where aircraft/boats etc are going to be provided from? Strange choice of terminology with "dropped off radar" - maybe implies a sudden chance of circumstance rather than a problem where there was constant radar changes and discussions with the flight deck.

[Stall Pusher]

Could it have strayed into a CB? Yes weather not good at that latitude at the moment.

Aircraft an A330-200

When other aircraft have disappeared in similar circumstances, Pan Am, Air India, there was a sudden and total electrical failure. Seems like a similar scenario.

[cesar]

Brazilian press has reported that Brazilian Air Force has started search and rescue efforts and that aircraft has not been detected by Sal Island (Cape Verde) radars as expected.

[Blocksoff]

off the coast of Brazil in the south Atlantic there is no Radar cover only positions reports are done via HF or VHF.

[Re-Heat]

Yes, but dropping off ACARS updates etc is as good as dropping of the "radar" screen these days, where the screen shows more than just a radar return.

Any speculation is pretty pointless at this stage...

[marlin]

Island is Fernando de Noronha,200 nm North East of Barzil.Still speculating

[captjns]

Do carriers have the ability to track individual tails via SATCOM, in conjunction with OFDM?

[marlin]

Most carriers do their own flight tracking these days

[Speed of Sound]

a terrorist attack is the last thing the industry now.

Or indeed the people on board and their relatives! :confused:

SoS

[Bingaling]

Most of our 330's are equipped with a GPS type tracking system that feeds real time accurate position and flight information (Heading/Altitude/Speed) back to the company.

I cannot guarantee it works over the Atlantic but I would be amazed if it doesn't. Surely AF would have extremely accurate position reports fed back continuously.

We can hold out hope that a miracle is possible, just like in NYC. They could very well be sitting in life rafts. I hope the SAR mission was initiated at the earliest indication of trouble.

Here's hoping.....

[brockenspectre]

Here is a link to the Le Monde story (http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2009/06/01/un-avion-d-air-france-disparait-des-ecrans-radar-au-large-du-bresil_1200678_3222.html)

apologies to those who don't read French but its easily translatable online - my assumption is that French news media may be more accurate and have better access to Air France spokespeople.

[ktm11]

If you look at the satellite map north east of "Rio Garne do norte" you can see there is a severe weather. Its on the way to cape verde. Where there was no communication done.
Check this out
WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=14.72999954&lon=-17.50000000&zoom=10&pin=Dakar%2c%20Senegal)

[captjns]

If the A330 provides heading/speed/altitude information, perhaps LAT/LONG would be transmitted too.

[fireflybob]

Aircraft don't just 'drop off the radar', even what little radar there is off the coast of Brazil.

I suppose it's a question of semantics but a/c do disappear off radar if they disintegrate in midair - too early to speculate the cause but one could hazard a guess.

[rojako]

Track Flight Status for (AF) Air France 447 (http://www.flightstats.com/go/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlightExtendedDetails.do?id=161158295&airlineCode=AF&flightNumber=447)

[Mahatma Kote]

Based on the great circle route and the reported trip times, and last reported time, the aircraft was last seen around Teneriffe +/- a few hundred miles.

Obviously this location could vary by many hundreds of nm,but a location somewhere around the coast of North West Africa seems probable.

[jotape]

Latest Brazilian news:
- Brazilian Air Force mobilised for search
- alarm was sounded when flight failed to check in with Sal island (those of you familiar with the SAA transatlantic flights will know about Sal...)

[farmer jo]

If the aircraft has ACARS (which I am sure it must have) then a report of height, speed and position is reported every minute

[lexxity]

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/middle/3/0/0/1228003.jpg

This is the 330 in question.

[kevincoy]

French government reports that contact with the plane was lost at 3:20am BST which is earlier than the 6am reports currently. (source: AP)

[Sam1191]

taken off A.net: "According France 2, at 3.30 AM (French time), the pilot was in conversation with their company and was reporting hard turbulance and the conversation was cut off"

[jotape]

also reason that Fernando de Noronha island is mentioned is not because that is the area of the disappearance, its because its the most easterly atlantic AFB for the Brazilian Air Force - i.e. thats where they take off to go and search

[kevincoy]

French officials are also saying that its fuel, including reserves would have just run out too, so all hope seems lost unfortunately... a sad day

[HeathrowAirport]

Air France Just Confirmed, Its lost. And there is no hope. Off the coast of west africa. Nearest San Pedro (VXE)

[iuk1963]

just published:

ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A330-203 F-GZCP ? Atlantic Ocean (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20090601-0)

[Thomcat]

Not sure I understand the reaction of Air France
' Air France shares worries and concerns of family concerned'

I work for a regional carrier and as far as I'm aware hq knows exactly where all aircraft are at any one time of the day. Air France operates worldwide so this might be slightly different, but surely they most have means to track their aircraft?

[Jumpseat777]

Without getting into specifics..AF fleet is tracked via constant ACARS reporting updated landing times...etc..to destination and en route stations. This is filtered news reporting to me. I have a feeling the S&R is being located to a certain area as thats last confirmed position. Think the rest is just speculation. Hope all are safe, but to me this might not have a happy ending..

[Speed of Sound]

If the aircraft has ACARS (which I am sure it must have) then a report of height, speed and position is reported every minute

In which case the reported loss of contact time must be incorrect.

If Brazilian authorities are searching that part of the Atlantic, then we must assume that AF have passed on any flight data they have to the Brazilians.

If a catastrophic failure, then position data received every minute would provide a location accurate to +/- 10 miles.

SoS

[dangrey]

Quite possibly the "0600 GMT" time is wrong and the aircraft went missing earlier.

But if it has been lost over deep Atlantic SAR resources will be limited. Normally a search would be conducted by commercial vessels in the area, later joined by any naval ships that can make the area in reasonable time.

After that, it's a case of the searching for and recovery of the wreckage. Where-ever it is they'll have a good idea of where the aircraft is lying from the last ACARS report. Black boxes have sonar beacons to aid their location.

[sandylanding]

this is a deeply worrying time, and thoughts are clearly with the families. what struck me is that if communication was lost during heavy turbulence and the rescue aircraft were launched then some report from them must be available from brazil, unless we are looking at something quite horrific. if it had ditched then shouldn't a rescue beacon give a position when it touches the water.

[Jumpseat777]

To all speculating GZCP has the whole array..GPS SATCOM ACARS SELCAL..no airline is going to get into the specifics without facts..this will be treated as aircraft missing comm lost till the first sign of contact in whatever form that might be :-(. AF MCC has live tracking as well and I have a feeling loss of contact times will be corrected too. The ELT would have been triggered too.. so there will be something soon

[Dani]

JS777: well of course modern equipment has the full range. But Acars is lost when out of VHF coverage, roughly 100NM off a coast. Selcal is via HF. The only thing that's left is Satcom over the sea. Acars and Selcal can be coupled to Satcom. But if this last system is defect, you loose that too.

Remember Swissair SR111 Halifax, where they lost all electricals after an onboard fire. One could speculate that you still can fly 100's of miles without any communication link, and that makes tracking much more difficult.

I don't say you are not right, I just want to put everything into perspective.

Dani

[fjouve]

A Breguet-Atlantique just took off out of Dakar in order to possibly locate the plane off African coast.

[racedo]

Seems like Pprune users stats gone through the roof as people using this as main source of collated news.

Thats why its better to leave the ill informed speculation to Sky.

[baob2oba]

AF press conference at AF CDG HQ expected at 1200z

ADP ( Paris Airports Company ): " no more hope "

French transport ministry : " very low probability of hijacking/terrorist attack "

AF website overloading, impossible to log in


:sad:

[gramlin]

Short bulletin from AF;
Vol Air France 447 Rio de Janeiro - Paris-Charles de Gaulle (http://alphasite.airfrance.com/s01/)

[EGNS]

NASA/MSFC Interactive GOES Data Selector (http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes)

Really bad weather out there. Electrical short circuit in severe turbulence.

[hangten]

Sky News:

'Plane sent message it had electrical short circuit after strong turbulence'

'Short circuit message received at 02:14 UTC, 15 minutes after turbulence'

[HalloweenJack]

an i ask what are (or were ) the meteorological conditions in the area at the time?

[Xeque]

If this is accurate then it puts the aircraft 4 hours 20 minutes into the flight and some 500 NM SSW of the Cape Verde Islands.
So why did the Brazilians launch a SAR mission? The aircraft, at that time, would have been well clear of Brazilian airspace and closer to West Africa.
An earlier report of severe weather in the area is also significant.
CAT leading to catastrophic airframe failure?

[barrybeebone]

Hangten, I just read your message and 2 seconds later CNN reported the electrical short circuit. I hope Sky news got it from a good source. Speculation in these incidents don't help anyone but the advertisers in news bureaus.

[betpump5]

Air France was facing the worst crash in its history today after a passenger jet with 228 people aboard went missing over the Atlantic on a flight from Brazil.

Flight AF447 took off from Rio de Janeiro at 7.30pm last night bound for Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris, where it was due to arrive at 11.15am (0915GMT).

But there was confusion as to where it may have come down.

The Paris airport authority said that it had lost radar contact with the Airbus A300-200 at 0600 GMT, only three hours before its arrival time, which would suggest that it could have come down near Europe, probably off the Azores.

RELATED LINKS
The 10 most deadly air disasters
British businessman killed in Brazil air crash
But the Brazilian Air Force said that the plane disappeared about 300 km northeast of the Brazilian coastal city of Natal, near the archipelago of Fernando de Noronha, from where a search-and-rescue mission was mounted this morning.

The aircraft's apparent failure to send any distress message suggests that it could have been victim of a sudden, violent event – a mechanical breakdown, accidental explosion in the hold or terrorist attack, although Jean-Louis Borloo, the French transport minister, ruled out the possibility of a hijack.

A spokeswoman for the airline said: "Air France announces with regret that it is without news of flight AF447 from Rio to Paris, which has 216 passengers aboard, and shares the fears of the families involved."

Air France said that there were a total of 12 crew aboard the plane, including three technicians.

An official at the Paris airport authority said: "We are very worried. The plane disappeared from the screens several hours ago. It could be a transponder problem, but this kind of fault is very rare and the plane did not land when expected."

Airport authorities have set up a crisis cell at Charles de Gaulle and Air France said all those waiting for the flight would be given access to a special waiting area at the airport's second terminal.

The aircraft in question, tail number F-GZCP, came into service in February 2005.

President Sarkozy's office said that he had asked authorities to "do all they could" to help find the missing aircraft. In a statement, the Elysée said that the President had been informed of the loss of contact this morning and had expressed "the greatest anxiety".

Brazil had two major plane crashes in 2006 and 2007, raising concerns about the safety of air travel in Latin America’s largest country.

In July 2007, all 187 people on board and 12 people on the ground died when a TAM airline Airbus A 320 overshot a runway at Sao Paulo’s Congonhas airport.

[Airways B]

Looks Turbulent but I wouldn't know how different from the 'norm' this is.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images/eurafrglob_sat_200906010300.jpg

[nyt]

As long as no abnormal seismic event has been reported in the area, one can hope that touchdown was somehow survivable..

[Christodoulidesd]

"Brasilian government sources report, that the airplane also disappeared from military radars (primary radars), that do not depend on transponder signals."

source: Crash: Air France A332 over Atlantic on June 1st 2009, aircraft missing (http://avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1&opt=0)

[Jumpseat777]

Dani

True.. and a good clarification. On Air France the systems are coupled and if you are flying with a known defective system then there your route planning (ETOPS limited) is affected so they would not fly into known blind spots. Of course it could have happened en route. But again you have made a fair point. The flight seemed to have sent a msg to MCC indicating a short circuit..again I have a feeling this will be clarified to something specific. But that would be a ACARS transmission. For an accident or an incident its always multiple causes. 3 techies(false media reporting) or an AOG recovery from Rio?

[KarlADrage]

It was quoted as F-GZCP not F-GZCB.

[allymc316]

an airbus spokesman has said "the plane was probably struck by lightning"

Air France jet goes missing | The Sun |News (http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2458737/Air-France-jet-goes-missing.html)

not good...

[Massey AvMan]

BREAKING NEWS
msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 8:28 a.m. ET June 1, 2009
SAO PAULO, Brazil - An Air France jet that disappeared Monday en route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris sent an automatic signal indicating electrical problems while going through an area of strong turbulence, the airline said.

The plane was most likely hit by lightning during its flight, Air France's director said at a news conference, according to an NBC News producer.

Aviation experts said it was clear the plane was not in the air any longer, due to the amount of fuel it would have been carrying.

"It's nearly three hours overdue. There has been no receipt of a mayday call. The conclusion to be drawn is that something catastrophic happened on board that has caused this airplane to ditch in a controlled or an uncontrolled fashion," Jane's Aviation analyst Chris Yates told The Associated Press.

Air France said in a statement the plane that carried 228 on board "crossed through a thunderous zone with strong turbulence" at 0200 GMT Monday (10:00 p.m. ET Sunday).

It said "an automatic message was received at 0214 GMT (10:14 p.m. EDT Sunday) signaling electrical circuit malfunction."

It said the 216 passengers included one infant, seven children, 82 women and 126 men.

[vapilot2004]

Hit by lightning?
That's a stretch considering there are no reports of such an occurrence...

[Tango Lima Charlie]

Any news coming out yet of what Nationalities on board?

[Broomstick Flier]

Just to make it clear: the aircraft involved was indeed F-GZCP. It was picked on ACARS by a friend of mine while inbound Rio de Janeiro.

[TheBeak]

The a/c quoted as being involved had an incident in 2006 in which it's wing hit the tail of a 320 on the ground. Is there a possiblity of latent structural failure induced by severe turbulence?

[Sir Richard]

Air France said that there were a total of 12 crew aboard the plane, including three technicians.

"three technicians" most likely refers to the cockpit crew.

[whartonp]

The a/c quoted as being involved had an incident in 2006 in which it's wing hit the tail of a 320 on the ground. Is there a possiblity of latent structural failure induced by severe turbulence?


Yes its possibly. Not very likely but possible. Then again there are so many possibilities and none should really carry much in the way of speculative weight until more hard and firm info becomes available.

[Xeque]

Blonde Bimbo 'News' notwithstanding - why did it take so long for the news to be published on the media?
The incident appears to have occurred some 2-3 hours into the flight. It was a lot longer than that before news started coming out of our TV's and radios. Air France must have known that one of theirs was down long before anyone got to hear about it. Hopefully, the reason was so they could inform relatives.
Post #45 (SAM1191) is interesting. How accurate can we assume that to be?

[LYKA]

SIGMET for the area;



http://aviationweather.gov/data/iffdp/3103.pdf

[BAe 146-100]

There was severe turbulence on the weather chart at FL410 off the West African coast at around the time the aircraft would have crossed the region.

I would assume the aircraft would have been pretty close to that flight level at that point of the flight.

[cambruzzo]

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/348803-qantas-emergency-landing-21.html

My thought also, just looking for the reference which is 2nd last entry

[Michael Birbeck]

One is minded to think of the great history that Air France has in pioneering South Atlantic routes and the huge number of people they have carried safely over these routes. It is far too early to start questioning ETOPS or anything else as we have no meaningful data to even begin speculating.

Those who can should pray for the passengers and crew as well as those who are looking for them. At this stage there is nothing else to do but wait for data from the reconnaissance people.

[Munnyspinner]

Is there any useful point in speculating as to the cause?

I do not doubt that everyone will have their own view as to the reason for this catastrophe but, I'm again lost as to the purpose of wild speculation. In the vast majority of cases it is not one single event that results in the demise of an aircraft and souls aboard but, often a a complicated matrix of seemingly unconnected events.

The likeliehood of any one aircraft suffering from any incident, fatal or otherwise, is actually very small. Reading the posts here might suggest the opposite - given the seemingly endless list of probable causes given by correspondents. No matter how plausible each theory may indeed be.

Simply reporting what news is made available may be boring but, it does avoid the creation of a vicariuos rumour mill.

[L'aviateur]

Update from Air France: Vol Air France 447 Rio de Janeiro - Paris-Charles de Gaulle (http://alphasite.airfrance.com/s01/?L=0)

Brief translation


Air France regrets to announce the loss of flight AF 447 from Rio de Janeiro - Paris-Charles de Gaulle, expected arrival this morning at 11.10 am local, as just announced to the press by the Director General of Air France, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon.

AF447 Aircraft F-GZCP A330-200 departed Rio de Janeiro on the 31st May 2009 at 19:03 Local time (00:03 paris time).


The aircraft went through a thunderstorm with strong turbulence at 2 am (universal time) or 4:00 GMT. An automated message was received at 2:14 (4:14 GMT) indicating a failure of electrical system in a remote area off the coast.


All civilian air traffic control Brazilian, African, Spanish and french have tried in vain to make contact with the flight AF447. The french military air traffic control tried to detect the aircraft without success.

216 pax onboard, 126 men, 82 women, 7 infants and babies.

12 crew (3 pilots, 9 cabin crew)

Captain 11,000 hrs TT (1700 on Airbus A330/A340)
Copilot 3,000 hrs TT (800 on Airbus A330/A340)
Copilot 6,600 hrs TT (2600 on Airbus A330/A340)

Aircraft equipped with engines General Electric CF6-80E.


Airframe had 18,870 flight hours since commencing service on 18 April 2005.

Last visit maintenance hangar dated 16 April 2009.

[jotape]

some additional thoughts:

- "why Brazil air force bothering to fly out if incident happened off African coast" ? well to me its clear: its a methodical tracing of the route followed, as for the moment and until debris is spotted, we actually have no idea apart from loss from radar and reports of electrical faults

- AF pioneering South Atlantic routes - absolutely agree and some of you will remember that AF's first SSC service was not to Washington or NY, it was to Rio ! so a very important and historical route for AF

- AF quality; let no one criticise AF's protocols and maintenance quality, as they are equal to BA and LH and better than most other Euro airlines (to be honest when I heard the news and before the company was announced, my instinct was to think this was a TAM flight...); last big crash from AF was the Concorde crash, now known to be caused by a chunk of metal falling off a preceding CO....

[barrymah]

AFAIK, but maybe out of date, flts entering airspace out of FIR announce their location, entry and exit points. Is there any ATC guru who can confirm/deny/update this? If so where would AF447 have made such an announcement?

IMO, the lack of info from Sal would seem significant; the first FIR after Brazilian airspace?

Bye, Barry

[Checkboard]

While tests by NASA have indicated that the highest risk of lightning strike is at or near the tops of thunderstorms with low lightning strike rates, this is the least reported area of strikes by pilots, as the storm tops are so easy to avoid. Aircraft are highly protected against lightning, in any case, although damage does occur.

The worst risk is of fuel explosion - although there has never been a verified lightning induced fuel explosion on an aircraft using Jet A. (8/12/63 a Pan Am 707 was bought down by lightning strike, a Iranian Air Force 747 on 9/5/76, a US AIr Force C-130 in 1978 and an F-4 and KC-135 - however all were fuelled with, or partially fuelled with Jet B (JP-4) ).

It is far more probable that the "lightning" comment was a rushed conclusion from a non-expert from the "short circuit" ACARS message.

This would be the first fatal in-service accident for the A330 (an A330-300 was lost on a test flight.)

[XPMorten]

Turbulence and CB forecasted in the area.

06 UTC (http://www.xplanefreeware.net/morten/DIV/turb1.gif)

12 UTC (http://www.xplanefreeware.net/morten/DIV/turb2.gif)

XPM

[lomapaseo]

As usual I have lots of questions.

I take note of the reports of severe weather as only of secondary interest at this time (may or may not be germain)

However the reports of multiple electrical system degradation is to me significant so hence my questions.

So far no reports of pilot communications of an event

1. Was the electrical system malfunctions associated over a time frame or only a single transmission?

2. Are these kind of transmissions altitude sensitive? (could they occur at very low altitudes during damage when striking the sea etc.)

the above are general questions and may not be applicable to this incident

[B772]

I am very surprised by the statement "aircraft went through a thunderstorm". I thought most widebody Airbus pilots knew there were 'whispers' about the tailplane in turbulence.

[Bingaling]

With reference to the report that the aircraft had sent a message about an electrical failure. There is nothing synister involved there.

All Airbus aircraft periodically send text messages back to the home maintenance base during a flight. These inflight messages regarding any systems faults or failures are collated and then printed out in the cockpit automatically after landing.

The engineering department will have received these messages while the aircraft was in flight, so that they can troubleshoot and fix the problem once the aircraft lands. This saves time and inevitably money for the company.

On nearly EVERY airbus flight there will be a report of some (usually very minor) fault reported to the company during a flight.

The cause of this accident will be known thoroughly upon full investigation.

In the meantime, there is a possibility, however slight, that these people may still be alive.

[gchriste]

Just heard one mention of this on I think CNN, and have not heard it again in the past 15 minutes.

News person stated that they had just received information that after the message about the electrical short circuit, the plan continued for some hours more under autonomous control.

They did not say where this information came from, but I wonder if there is something to this and why the confusion around the time contact was reported as lost. Could it be voice communication was lost around 3 hours after takeoff, but the plan was then tracked for another couple of hours until it was closer to the African coast.

Just watching other news feeds now to see if anyone else mentions this.

[le Pingouin]

Xeque, the only firm evidence is the ACARS messages. In the absence of other evidence it's usual to wait until fuel exhaustion before you assume an aircraft has gone down.

[Cows getting bigger]

Not jumping too far ahead, I'm wondering how the authorities will go about finding this particular needle in the haystack. Who has the capability and how much effort will be expended to find evidence if indeed the aircraft is now at the bottom of the Atlantic? I presume that there are very few countries who have the capability to scour the oceans.

[slingsby]

Sorry to report but USGS reporting 4.7 seismic event 610nm north of Fernando Island - repeat of SR recorded event?

[Flightsimman]

That SIGMET looks pretty scary off the coast of West Africa.

[midnight cruiser]

Does the CF6 have rollback issues/history (engine icing near CBs?) - Double flame outs would cause electrical system load shedding which would I guess, cause a maintainance event on the ACARS.

Jotape - I'd say Toronto was a pretty major prang, and the Concorde crash was caused by more than just a piece of metal. Further back there was the airshow strimmer at Habsheim, the Strasbourg crash (Air Inter), the 744 off the runway into the drink in the S Pacific etc. (and thats just off the top of my head)!

[-JC-]

Does Atlantico have CPDLC capability in that area ? Anyone know how often CPDLC/ADS position reports are sent to ATC ?

[cirr737]

@slingsby

If you review the earthquake data, you can see that this is just a co-incidence

1) It happend at 00:47Z, so way to early.
2) The quake was located 10km below the surface


ot = 00:47:04.33 +/- 0.60 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
lat = 4.971 +/- 15.0
lon = -32.615 +/- 5.6 MAGNITUDE 4.8 (GS)
dep = 10.0 (geophysicist)

[airseb]

no cpdlc with Atlantico yet and certainly not with Sal. very very sad day for all of us

[md4490]

What about other reports such as Tam or any other crossing flight about the weather conditions...anybody?

[mary meagher]

Checkboard mentions in message 80 that "aircraft are highly protected against lightning......."

The UK air accident investigation board a number of years ago was able to measure the voltage of a lightning strike that melted the controls of a K21 glider over Dunstable, and came to the unsettling conclusion that it far exceeded the protection provided for airliners at that time.

Could this be relevant?

[solmark]

assuming AF447 did ditch, what are the chances of finding it in such a remote area?

[latetonite]

Looking at the significant wx charts kindly provided by XP Morten, it does not look they were going for a smooth ride.

[barrymah]

same for rochambeau/piarco? Dakar?

[airsound]

Coupla things, which may or may not be relevant.

Earlier, the Brazilians said they were basing their search round Fernando de Noronha (maybe because they had aircraft there) - but there were also reports that the incident was about 300km from Natal, which is in the same area.

That ties in roughly with something happening 4 hours into the flight, because that seems to be in the same area, rather than closer to Africa.

Finally, I don't think anyone has mentioned the ITCZ, which must be somewhere round this area at this time of year.

sean

airsound

[Rollingthunder]

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45852000/gif/_45852693_plane_crash2_466.gif

[betpump5]

The worst thing is that we may never know what happened. If indeed it was severe storms, then the a/c could be spread over a very large area. This would have been increased further due to the time it takes SAR to reach the possible area.

By then the most important equipment (Black Box for example) could be sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic.

Does anyone have any opinions on the viability of locating and scavenging the bottom of the ocean for wreckage and more importantly, the black box? What is the cut-off point when the authorities just give up?

[EchoIndiaFoxtrot]

Earlier, the Brazilians said they were basing their search round Fernando de Noronha (maybe because they had aircraft there) - but there were also reports that the incident was about 300km from Natal, which is in the same area.

I think they probably started searching from Fernando de Noronha as this was the last place where radar contact was made according to the Brazilians.

The timeline as I see it in GMT would appear to be -

2200 GMT AF447 leaves Rio
0133 GMT Last radar contact made with AF447 at Fernando
0214 GMT Automated signal sent by AF447 at unknown location and no further contact
0910 GMT AF447 due at Charles de Gaulle

[Broomstick Flier]

Brazilian Air Force just made an announcement with the following facts. Local times(LT) are given based on Brasilia official time (valid for this area)

19:30LT/22:30Z: Departure from GIG

22:33LT/01:33Z: Last contact made on VHF with Cindacta III (Recife Centre) on INTOL position (more or less 310Nm from Natal VOR, on UN873 airway), informing it was estimating TASIL position (around 670Nm from Natal VOR on the same airway) at 23:20LT/02:20Z

22:48LT/01:48Z: Flight left area covered by Recife Centre ATC radar, and it was cruising normally at FL350 with TAS 453KT

23:20LT/02:20Z: No radio contact was made (this time the flight would be already talking to Atlantico Centre on HF) and Dakar Oceanic was informed about this.

Today morning, Air France informed that around 50Nm after TASIL position, the flight informed (my remark: not sure if via SATCOM, ACARS message or both) electrical problems and pressurisation problems as well.

BF

[jammydonut]

There are various military, civilian, remote or manned underwater vehicles that can undertake recovery from depth.

[betpump5]

There are various military, civilian, remote or manned underwater vehicles that can undertake recovery from depth.

Of course. We have all seen Titanic. there are small capsules that can be sent down to depths in the Mariana's Trench. But I'm talking about a salvage operation- not just a documentary for Wildlife on One.

As far as I know, there is no apparatus that would be able to salvage an engine for example sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic. The TWA wreckage was salvaged quite well due to its relative proximity to land. But this is different.

My educated guess would be to purely focus on the FDR and salvage that.

[EvilDoctorK]

The above mentioned "TASIL" waypoint is at 4° 0' 18N 29° 59' 24W

Which is pretty much in the middle of nowhere, slightly less than halfway from NW Brazil to Cape Verde - 4° 0' 18N 29° 59' 24W - Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=4%C2%B0+0'+18N+29%C2%B0+59'+24W&sll=37.579413,-95.712891&sspn=73.431894,56.601563&ie=UTF8&ll=4.005766,-29.99016&spn=46.623416,28.300781&t=h&z=5)

Pretty deep ocean around there I'd imagine

[AccidentalTourist]

Seems like a lot of knowledgeable folks on this thread have been looking at met and satellite reports and concluding the weather was really ugly in the vicinity of the incident. Was this known to the airline/pilots ahead of time?

Sorry, I'm just a dumb non-pilot/non-technician here, but given the known risks of flying thru thunderstorms/lightning/severe turbulence, shouldn't airlines be required to make more effort to fly around/above such areas? Sure, it may lead to higher fuel costs and departure/arrival delays, but why take the risk? As a frequent traveller with a few scary flight experiences already, I prefer to avoid even moderate turbulence yet as a pax there is simply no way for me to get any info on this prior to boarding. Most flights are fine but some clearly are not.

I may be wrong, but I am left with the feeling that airlines are under such economic pressure that they are on the margin sometimes pushing flights thru questionable weather just to manage costs . . . is this an area where FAA/international bodies could lay out better guidelines and requirements?

[Ron Waksman]

I am wondering about the possibility of a lightning strike and the high composite content on the A330... is it more vulnerable or is that a red herring?

[RatherBeFlying]

The initial search will focus on floating debris. Of course a visual search depends on visibility and sea state.

The USCG has some sophisticated drift analysis software to help them determine where to look given the incident coordinates and time.

[betpump5]

but I am left with the feeling that airlines are under such economic pressure that they are on the margin sometimes pushing flights thru questionable weather just to manage costs . . . is this an area where FAA/international bodies could lay out better guidelines and requirements?

You are completely wrong. No one :mad:s about with weather just to get home and/or for costs. Whether you are in a C-152 or an airliner.

This is why I am not speculating yet on any cause.

[CDG1]

From the time I have heard about the AF 330 being lost this is the only thing that really bummed me. How come no one has picked up any distress signal of any sort coming from the lost airliner.

I see Atlantic capable private yachts all the time, even sailboats. All have very sophisticated onboard equipment, GPS and other communication devices capable of picking up signals. Not talking about container ships, tankers, cruise ships big and small.

Not talking about other airplanes, airliners big and small, military or civilian, even private jets.

The lost AF aircraft could not possibly be all alone and only by itself in that one particular area where it was lost?

[DarkStar]

Jotape - You seem very hazy about AF's safety record. The AF Concorde was doomed before it even got near that metal strip on the runway. Wheel spacer left behind in the hangar after maintenance, wrong runway / wind direction, the list goes on I'm afraid. Still, I'm sure AF will be keen to make all their findings public this time around for the sake of those who lost their lives on CZP.

No point in any speculation here at all. An awful incident.

[admiral ackbar]

IANAPP (I am not a professional pilot) but you can be sure that that no legitimate airline instructs its pilots NOT to avoid CB's due to economic considerations. When it all starts going pear shaped, the guys in the pointy end of the plane have all the decisional power in the world (or so I would like to think!)

We may never get the full story on this one...

[SLFinAZ]

I'm curious about the reference earlier (in this thread) to potential tail area weakness in the airbus. Is is possible that severe turbulence could create enough problems to induce enough control input to "pop" the vertical stabilizer (similar to the crash of Long Island)? If so how does a plane get certified if it can't handle control inputs required for recovery from weather induced unusual attitude recovery? {recognizing this is speculation here}

[luck7711]

Aviation experts said the risk the plane was brought down by lightning was slim.

"Lightning issues have been considered since the beginning of aviation. They were far more prevalent when aircraft operated at low altitudes. They are less common now since it's easier to avoid thunderstorms," said Bill Voss, president and CEO of Flight Safety Foundation, Alexandria, Va.

He said planes have specific measures built in to help dissipate electricity along the aircraft's skin.

"I cannot recall in recent history any examples of aircraft being brought down by lightning," he told The Associated Press.

[agusaleale]

Quote:

but I am left with the feeling that airlines are under such economic pressure that they are on the margin sometimes pushing flights thru questionable weather just to manage costs . . . is this an area where FAA/international bodies could lay out better guidelines and requirements?
You are completely wrong. No one http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/censored.gifs about with weather just to get home and/or for costs. Whether you are in a C-152 or an airliner.

This is why I am not speculating yet on any cause

Did you notice CB at 450 on route?
Do you think this accident happened due to good weather?

[hetfield]

I'm curious about..potential tail area weakness in the airbus...

I'm curious about people asking such questions without any clue.

[fastrobert]

Sorry, I'm just a dumb non-pilot/non-technician here, but given the known risks of flying thru thunderstorms/lightning/severe turbulence, shouldn't airlines be required to make more effort to fly around/above such areas? Sure, it may lead to higher fuel costs and departure/arrival delays, but why take the risk? As a frequent traveller with a few scary flight experiences already, I prefer to avoid even moderate turbulence yet as a pax there is simply no way for me to get any info on this prior to boarding. Most flights are fine but some clearly are not

Turbulence and lightning should not be an issue. The aircraft are tested to the extreme long before they go into service. I've been bounced around in tropical storms many a time and while it can make you spill your wine, it wont knock a large jet out of the sky. The much repeated message would seem to be not to speculate until there is more information but as a frequent cross-atlantic flyer myself, even my thick skin gets goose bumps when accidents like this happen for no apparent reason...

[Blacksheep]

but you can be sure that that no legitimate airline instructs its pilots NOT to avoid CB's due to economic considerations.... and you can be even more certain of how much notice any pilot who was sitting in the pointy end would take of any such instruction. :=

[ST27]

A good example of wreckage recovery from the bottom of the ocean was the Air India 747 that was lost off the coast of Ireland. A British vessel located the wreck site by following acoustic pings from the recorders, and a French cable-laying vessel used its remote submarine to recover both the FDR and CVR from a depth of about 7,000 feet. This all happened over a span of about two weeks.

The pingers can be heard for something like 2 miles, and will last for 30 days.

Later, the Canadian investigators (the flight originated in Montreal) recovered much of the wreckage as part of their accident investigation.

The average depth of the Atlantic ocean is something like 12,000 feet.

[mrmike]

I thought the Cockpit Voice recorder and the Flight Data recorder were supposed to float! Am I wrong?

[F117A]

I totally agree, it is nearly impossible that this aircraft has been downed by a lightnening strike although I will not rule out that the aircraft entered a CB. Since the incident happened close to the equator and ITCZ the tropopause is higher and thus CB tops can be recorded at very high altitudes were as normally airlines flying in mid latitudes will fly above any weather. Although I cannot understand how the crew could have flown directly into CB with AWB onboard indicating severe turbulance and weather.

[YHZChick]

I thought the Cockpit Voice recorder and the Flight Data recorder were supposed to float! Am I wrong?

Kinda hard to float when you're buried under a few tons of fuselage.

Come on people. Enough with the stupid questions already.

[MFALK]

The A330 ATSU needs AC1 BUS as its power source so if they got an ACARS downlink it would seem to indicate that at least AC1 was powered hence it could mean that at the time the message was downlinked, the electrical system was not as degraded as it would be, for e.g., in an EMER ELEC CONFIG.

[JP4]

Jotape, have a look here:

Airline accident ratings (http://www.planecrashinfo.com/rates.htm)

[betpump5]

The reason I don't wish to speculate is because in the bigger picture, we know nothing. With respect to our fellow aviators the gadgets we get to play with are pretty impressive. Especially for en-route weather.

Which is why I'm not going to just agree with some ill-thought theory that the plane happened to fly into a CB. As with ALL flight accidents, there is a chain of events. What we will find out is that many things went wrong in order for this unfortunate event to occur, not just one thing.

[Ron Waksman]

A lightning strike on a North Sea helicopter a number of years ago brought down the aircraft. Luckily the crew and oil workers were rescued. These North Sea helicopters had been hit regularly by lightning over a number of years with no major damage or problems. But it was not until after the manufacturer added composite tail rotor blades that a theory developed that composite materials could be exploded by rare and extremely powerful lightning bolts. The A330 as I understand is made of 12-15% composite material. Nowhere near what the A350 or 787 Dreamliner will be, but what I read on the net suggests lightning protection is difficult to incorporate into a composite aircraft compared to conventional aluminium ones. Composite airframes also give less electromagnetic shielding compared to aluminium, making it more difficult to protect avionic systems.

[Flyinheavy]

To F117A:

Just suppose that they continue after an ELEC failure. Would they still have WX Radar indications?

It's all speculations, at this time all we sadly can hope for is to find the FDR and get clues from it.

[one post only!]

WHBM, the crew have the authority to do whatever they need to do to keep the aircraft safe. I am sure they will have been picking their way through the weather without fear of a reprimand following a tech stop (if required) for extra fuel. Although after reading the weather I am sure they took plenty of gas and could have meandered around all day avoiding stuff without eating into reserves!

[Richard_Brazil]

(Exact translation of text received via a news site; the Air Force site seems to have buckled under the traffic.)

The Brazilian Air Force Command informs that it has begun search operations for AIR FRANCE FLIGHT 447, which disappeared when flying from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to Paris, France, with an estimated arrival time of 6:10 AM (Brasilia time).

The AIR FRANCE aircraft took off from Galeão Airport in Rio at 7:30 PM local time. At 10:30 PM, Flight AFR 447 made its last contact via radio with the Atlantic Area Control Center (CINDACTA III) at position INTOL (565 kilometers from the city of Natal, RN), informing that it was entering the airspace of DAKAR - Senegal (position TASIL – 1,228 km from Natal), at 11:20 PM (Brasilia time). At 10:48 PM, when the aircraft left CINDACTA III's radar coverage, at the island of Fernando de Noronha, information indicated that the aircraft was flying normally at an altitude of 35,000 feet (11 km) and at a velocity of 453 knots (840 km/h).

At the time estimated for position TASIL (11:20 PM), the AIR FRANCE aircraft did not make the expected radio contact with CINDACTA III, of which DAKAR Control was informed.

AIR FRANCE informed CINDACTA III, at 8:30 AM, Brasilia time, that at approximately 100 km from position TASIL, flight AFR 447 sent a message informing the company of mechanical problems on the aircraft (loss of pressurization and a failure in the electrical system).

At 2:30 AM local time, SALVAERO Recife activated search teams of the Brazilian Air Force - FAB, with one C-130 Hercules aircraft, one sea patrol P-95 Bandeirante and the Air-Land Rescue Squadron (PARASAR).

Air Brigadier Antonio Carlos Moretti Bermudez
Head of the Air Force Center for Social Communication

[Blacksheep]

would the crew have authority to divert substantially around, even if this meant a fuel stop en-route, without reprimand afterwards ?Once airborne, the crew have complete authority to do anything they consider necessary for the safe conduct of the flight - including returning to the point of origin. They may need to justify their actions later, but fear of reprimand would be very far from their minds when making a safe flight decision.

[Dysag]

The amount of composites in the A330 fuselage structure is negligable.

[Unusual Attitude]

With regards to recovery, a typical N Sea spec WROV can operate down to approx 2500m and is capable of tasks such as recovering a FDR. There are a number of vessels operating on construction projects in W Africa at the moment equipped with such ROV's, any deeper than that however is getting very specialist.

Even so, recovering a whole aircraft from that depth is one heck of a feet and I would suggest extremely unlikely due to the massive costs involved. A hi-res multibean mapping of the debris field along with a visual ROV inspection of key areas and recovery of the FDR would be more likely.
Fingers crossed it doesnt happen like that and by the grace of god they find the kite merrily floating on the surface with all the pax and crew safe and well.

[F117A]

It depends what type of electrical failure. But for sure to have a total blackout is really something rare. The A330 is equiped with quadriplex elec systems all independent of each other. On rare occasions a total black out can occur if all engines fail. At this point a RAT is deployed to give limited elec to hydraulics and minimum avionics.

[threemiles]

We can assume that at the time of the accident there was other traffic in the area going northbound. The three parallel South Atlantic ATS routes are not heavily but frequently flown. Any distress calls on 121.5 would have been certainly heard by someone else. VHF is extended range up to 400 or 500 NM from the receivers in the area and Recife and Sal can listen far out. Also other traffic would have experienced the CB area yesterday night on the same airway, most likely also at the same flight level 350.

[747guru]

Of course all we can do is speculate and make educated guesses at this stage, but having read many of the previous postings on this subject, I am suprised that the "T" word (terrorism) hasn't been mentioned more often as a theory today?

As much as we would like to brush this aside, I am sure that "radical groups", especially AQ etc are not considered a threat in south america, and perhaps the terrorists have realised this too and have managed to breach security in Rio?

Let's hope not!

[Xeque]

You raise a good point but....
Think back to Lockerbie. A sudden, disastrous in-flight break-up. There was no time for a radio message before the flight crew were incapacitated. There have been many similar incidents.
Here we have a bad weather system up to 41,000 feet (look at the previous posts herein) - a lot higher than this aircraft was probably at. It was night so there would be no visual indication of Cu Nim (CB). The dangers of CAT are already well known. Then the aircraft runs into the equivalent of Mother Natures sledge hammer including (perhaps) a major lightning strike that severely effects the electrical systems including the weather radar and, more crucially, the auto-pilot - something you really do not want at FL350 or higher.
Aircraft out of control, at high speed (Mach .83+?) no means of communication, little means of regaining manual control. The airframe begins to rapidly break up.
It's a minus situation for even the best of pilots.
Conjecture? Sure it's conjecture. But what else are we likely to have here unless, by some miracle, the 'boxes' are recovered.

[mark25787]

I am suprised that the "T" word (terrorism) hasn't been mentioned more often as a theory today?

To be honest, I'm glad it hasn't been. A tiny fraction of aviation incidents are terrorism related, and to go along that train of thought in a case like this is completely unfounded.
Also, it's hardly a terrorist coup to have a plane crash into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean - just devastating to those who have family and friends unaccounted for.

[betpump5]

For me, personally who has sat at my laptop in the garden on my day off and reading copious amounts of news, things simply do not add up. Which is why speculation must be kept to a minimum.

The reasons could go from Terrorism (which someone alluded to has not been mentioned much) to the Bermuda Triangle (which hasn't been mentioned if you believe in that sort of BS.

People have mentioned about the weather at the time and any weather that can bring down an airliner will be seen on any en-route weather information system so I don't buy that as one single or most important cause.

[Aerospace101]

Was it on a busy route? Was BA/KLM/Iberia also flying to europe last night. I wonder what conditions they encountered?

[YHZChick]

I am suprised that the "T" word (terrorism) hasn't been mentioned more often as a theory today?

As much as we would like to brush this aside, I am sure that "radical groups", especially AQ etc are not considered a threat in south america, and perhaps the terrorists have realised this too and have managed to breach security in Rio?

:ugh:
Why are you surprised?
There has been NOTHING to suggest that this was a terrorist act. No terroist organizations have claimed responsibility. The airline was not advised of any threats to their aircraft.

Why try to stir up speculation that NONE of the (limited) available information can support? Fear-mongering is all you're doing.

[overthewing]

Do we know if any other traffic was in the area at around that time, to confirm weather conditions?

Is it really possible for weather to bring down a big jet like this? How extreme would the conditions have to be?

[Carbon Bootprint]

Here on the telly in BKK, Richard Quest of CNN International is reporting a statement from the Brazilian Air Force indicating a report of "loss of pressure" from the "automated system" aboard the plane (presumably ACARS).

This is said to be in addition to the reports of turbulence and a short circuit in the electrics. The implication of the story is loss of cabin pressure, though I know how the media can get things wrong, especially when translating technical material from other languages is involved.

No fan of RQ here, and I have to consider the source. I mention it only because it's something I haven't heard reported thus far. (I am only reporting, and not speculating.)

[englishal]

1) did any of the other aircraft on the route of flight report severe turbulence? (there would have been a string of aircraft from Brazil to Europe that night).

2) WX Radar only shows precipitation and not turbulence.

3) No crew in their right mind would fly into severe turbulence if they knew it was there.

4) I was booked onto that plane a week from now. When I found out I was booked Air France a few days ago, I changed my ticket to another airline due to past experiences with flying Air France from CDG to Rio. Once it took 48 hrs to get to Rio due to technical problems.....(complete blackout as the aeroplane taxied out onto the runway late one foggy night - 5 "tries" later the passengers rebelled and refused to fly on the aeroplane - was a different aeroplane make and model so unconnected with this incident).

[italianjon]

There is lots of discussions about weather maps a speculation about the conditions in the vicinity of the last known postion, although does anyone know if there were any other aircraft following the same or parallel routes that experienced turbulence, CBs or other.

If this was the second AF flight from Rio to CDG, what routing did the first flight take and what en-route weather was experienced?

I am not speculating (famous last words before I get flamed ;) ) I just feel that putting a map up and saying "ooo looks bad" and getting a confirmed report from another aircraft in the same bit of sky are two completely different things in understanding what weather the aircraft experienced.

[Feathers McGraw]

Pyro

Air France's statement says it was a lightning strike, you would expect them to know wouldn't you?

[TeachMe]

I find the reports of electrical and pressurization problems reported to maintenance (at the same time??) to be interesting. Can anyone see a VERY strong and well aimed bolt holing the skin? Purely a hypothetical question only, but if I wonder it, others must also.

[tom775257]

To clarify the post above from Xeque, hand flying an Airbus fly by wire at high altitude is very easy in normal law, the loss of an autopilot is of no concern.

[PyroTek]

Air France's statement says it was a lightning strike, you would expect them to know wouldn't you?A spokesman for Air France has speculated that the aircraft may have been struck by lightningis what I read, correct me if I'm wrong, but how is a spokesperson supposed to point out facts from where he/she is located at the moment?
"may" does not mean it is fact.

I didn't come onto this thread to argue about technicalities in what I'm saying.

[scrunchthecat]

From 20Minutes:
Disparition d'un avion Air France: «aucun espoir», le PDG évoque l'hypothèse de la foudre sur 20minutes.fr (http://www.20minutes.fr/article/329445/France-Disparition-d-un-avion-Air-France-aucun-espoir-le-PDG-evoque-l-hypothese-de-la-foudre.php)

Selon Air France, la foudre pourrait être à l'origine de l'accident...

En milieu de journée, le directeur de la communication d’Air France a déclaré que l’hypothèse la plus vraisemblable était que l’avion ait été «foudroyé». L'avion avait subi un contrôle technique sans problème le 7 avril.

According to Air France, lightning could be at the root of the accident.

The communications director of Air France declared that the most likely cause of the crash was that the plane had been "blasted" (by lightning) in the middle of the flight.

[grimmrad]

Disclaimer: Not an expert nor pilot

If there were a fatal and total electrical failure - than the system certainly would not have been able to send out a message about it, at least not at that time, would it? As this requires some sort of amps/voltage...?

[grizzled]

I will not speculate on this accident. What I will say to those who comment about, or ask about, the "black boxes"is this: The recorders will be found and retrieved, and it will not be by "a miracle". The cause will most likely eventually be established, reported on, and accepted by most experts.

[Carbon Bootprint]

Loss of AP is one thing, but what of loss of electrics altogether? I've heard A320 pilots refer to it as "Sparky" because if electrics are lost, it becomes a lawn dart. I'm interested to know, how might the A330 compare in this occurrence?

[dead_pan]

The recorders will be found and retrieved


There's some pretty deep water out there so I'm not so confident. Also, the wreckage could be scattered over a huge area if it did break up at altitude. It will also take several days for the search teams to reach the area.

[pax britanica]

Very distressing incident and one that I am sure will be hard to pin down the causes of any time soon.
As to the recovery of Data and Voice recorders and parts of airframe and engines then in addition to the oil industry vessels there are ships that maintain/repair undersea communications cables that carry the internet around the world.These vessels have remote controlled submersible vehicles and can lift modest weights from very great depths as the cables lie on the ocean floor. They are also pretty good at locating objects on the sea bed as the cables are only an inch or so thick but of course they would need a reasonable prediction of location so as to limit the searc area to practical dimensions. Unfortuneately even if there is aposition report in the last ACARS message if thatwas sent at cruising level then the radius of probaility as to where the aircraft hit the water is pretty large and compounded by currents and water densities which mean that something entering the seas surface does not sink verticaly downwards very often so it will be a real challnge to locate any wreckage but not impossible.

Location and salvage/recovery will be a very expensive and time consuming exercise but I would hope and indeed expect that it will be seen as a critical activity in order to avoid future incidents, maintain confidence in what seems a very sound design as well as to learn as much as possible from whatever specific causal factors are associated with this accident

[Bruce Wayne]

how does a plane get certified if it can't handle control inputs required for recovery

it doesnt.

[dns]

It seems odd that no ELT transmission has been received from the missing jet. Unless of course it's at the bottom of the ocean.

Surely some control surfaces are locked out during the cruise to prevent excessive movement at high speed?

[Lost in Saigon]

Pyro

Air France's statement says it was a lightning strike, you would expect them to know wouldn't you?

The Air France statement about a lightning strike was at best speculation only. Poorly formulated and very misleading speculation.

The facts are that the aircraft's automatic ACARS (Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System) simply sent out a random message giving some basic information on the status of some of the systems on board. It does this automatically.

Supposedly the electrical system and pressurization systems were suspect due to the ACARS message received. The fact that some "spokesman" is saying it was lightning based on this tiny shred of information leads me to discount any information given thus far.

Until we get more definitive information, that ACARS message could mean almost anything.

[helen-damnation]

As far as I know, there is no apparatus that would be able to salvage an engine for example sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic.

The Americans were lifting Russian submarines from the Atlantic in 1974.
Glomar Explorer (http://www.espionageinfo.com/Fo-Gs/Glomar-Explorer.html)

Recovery efforts began on June 20, 1974. The 63,000-ton Glomar Explorer located the wreckage on the seabed at a depth of 17,000 feet (5,200 m).

It may take a lot of time but it will happen.

[averow]

I have wondered this sort of thing myself. Perhaps I shall do some investigation and start a new thread on the tech forum. One would think with some of the newer technologies (spy sats, weather sats, ocean ship radar data, etc.) and information processing technologies available some data could be extracted, albeit perhaps retrospectively. :hmm:

[jeedes]

SA295 went down off Mauritius in 1987 in waters up to 5,000m deep. There was a catastrophic fire on board resulting in severe break-up of the wreckage. Still, they managed to find the cockpit voice recorder. I suspect in this day and age they'll have no problem finding the recorders.

[Frangible]

Sorry, folks, nobody is sitting on any orange rafts. If there was the remotest possibility of that the airline would be the first to believe it. And they have stated there is no hope.

If the ACARS reports were the result of the beginning of an in-flight break-up sequence due to extremely severe turbulence (which can, btw, destroy any aircraft) all electrical power would have been lost immediately afterwards. One assumes AF speculated about a lightning strike as a way of explaining the sudden loss of the transponder at altitude.

The puzzle is what they were doing flying "into" (AF's word, not media's) a thunderstorm.

As far as searches are concerned, the priority will be the black boxes, although if there was a sudden in-flight break-up, they will show nothing after the power loss. No one will attempt to recover engines or anything else, in fact, that is not relevant to the investigation.

As for the power-off qualities of the A330, don’t forget the Air Transat pilot who glided one over 20 minutes to a safe landing on the Azores after fuel exhaustion at FL30 or so.

As a previous poster mentioned, composites do not necessarily behave well in lightning strikes. The Super Puma crash in the North Sea after a tail rotor failure showed unexpected vulnerability to lightning and the presence of much higher discharges from lightning than was provided for in the lightning protection standards. This has much to do with particular composite designs and of course it will have no applicability to this disaster unless it is proved this plane was hit by lightning. If it was, the wreckage will show it.

[feedback]

The Americans were lifting Russian submarines from the Atlantic in 1974.
Glomar Explorer (http://www.espionageinfo.com/Fo-Gs/Glomar-Explorer.html)


cost in excess of $200 million dollars - 1974 or 1975 dollars, so of the order of a billion now: see www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/jennifer.htm
(http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/jennifer.htm)

[hetfield]

How come an official AF-Representative is clearly talking about lightning strike as most probable cause in these eraly hours afte the accident???

:ugh:

What a muppet.

[Strongresolve]

This is fact:

The planes was close to an area of intense CB and TS activity.

Very few people has dared inside a TS, but almost every pilot have seen pictures of what happen to a plane that had ventured inside a Thunder Storm.

The selector of bright/intensity of the WX in the ND of the A330/340 sometimes brings to confusion. How many times an A320/330/340 pilots knows that his radar is ON, but he is unable to see anything in the ND because the WX bright is at the minimum intensity and he didnt notice.
Normaly the big selector must by related to the screen and the small one to the WX presentation. In the Airbus the small selector is related to the ND and the big one to the WX presentation. And normaly the big selector moves the small one, because this selectors are switched in the Airbus, this is not the case in these planes.

[aeo]

Outhouse Is Right, Lets Focus On The Electrical And Pressn Faults Stated By Af. Everything Else Is Just Pure Speculation.

There Is A Lot Of Redundancy In These Acft So Hence They Don't Just Break Up Or Fall Out Of The Sky.

If Anyone Knows What 'airman' Did Report (airbus' Auto Fault Reporting System Af Is Referring To) Or If There Were Any Add's Or Mel's That The Aircraft Was Carrying Before Departure Then That Would Be Worth Knowing.

But All The Rest Isn't Really Worth Anything At This Point. I Think We Just Need To Sit Tight For A Little While..

[hajk]

Airfrance is a western airline with a reasonably good reputation for maintenance (even if their customer service is debatable). The plane type involved is reasonably modern and we would assume that the pilots would be looking to minimise turbulence by trying to avoid the cb cells. As other posters have noted, normally lightning strikes are of discomfort but no major concern.

There is a rarer (<5%) but documented phenomenon known as positive lightning which can come from the top of the 'anvil' to the ground some distance away from the storm. These have between 10-100 times the power of normal strikes and have been implicated in some crashes including Pan Am 214 in 1963 and the in-air breakup of a glider in 1999. Even the most modern planes would have a serious problem with such a strike.

Anyway hoping nothing of the kind happened and that somehow the plane managed to ditch.

[Jagohu]

One assumes AF speculated about a lightning strike as a way of explaining the sudden loss of the transponder at altitude.

When will everyone finally understand, that the transponder has no role whatsoever in a non-radar environment?? There're no radars in the middle of the ocean, so it's not interrogated, therefore it's not replying to anyone...
if it was lost while still under radar control, at least there would be an idea where to start the search.

[rondun]

I suspect in this day and age they'll have no problem finding the recorders. The FDR and CVR have beacons which should be capable of sending out a signal for 30 days or so making it easier to pinpoint their location on the sea bed.

[Dysag]

"So my question is simple, does the airbus have the capability to survive a weather related loss of control at cruise or would the control movements required to recover the plane lead them selfs to catastrophic failure?"

1) probably you don't want to use rudder in cruise.

2) the amount of movement of the other control surfaces is decided by the computers. The Bus is not so stupid as to decide to break itself.

[Lost in Saigon]

Brazilian Air Force just made an announcement with the following facts. Local times(LT) are given based on Brasilia official time (valid for this area)

19:30LT/22:30Z: Departure from GIG

22:33LT/01:33Z: Last contact made on VHF with Cindacta III (Recife Centre) on INTOL position (more or less 310Nm from Natal VOR, on UN873 airway), informing it was estimating TASIL position (around 670Nm from Natal VOR on the same airway) at 23:20LT/02:20Z

22:48LT/01:48Z: Flight left area covered by Recife Centre ATC radar, and it was cruising normally at FL350 with TAS 453KT

23:20LT/02:20Z: No radio contact was made (this time the flight would be already talking to Atlantico Centre on HF) and Dakar Oceanic was informed about this.

Today morning, Air France informed that around 50Nm after TASIL position, the flight informed (my remark: not sure if via SATCOM, ACARS message or both) electrical problems and pressurisation problems as well.

BF



INTOL position is the boundary between Reciffe control and Atlantico control. TASIL position is the boundary between Atlantico control and Dakar control.

AF447 passed INTOL at 01:33 UTC and were estimating over INTOL at 02:20 UTC

No one has said that AF447 had any contact with Atlantico control. This would normally happen as soon as you leave Reciffe control at INTOL.

It appears that the authorities only became concerned when AF447 did not contact Dakar control at TASIL.

Does anyone familiar with this route know if it is normal to transit Atlantico without calling in?

If they were supposed to call Atlantico, but did not, I suspect their problems may have started much earlier that anyone thinks at this point.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/msowsun/Airline/IMG_4679a.jpg

[concordino]

Jagohu,

not in disagreement but a mere correction.

therefore it's not replying to anyone...


If the Xponder is on it will communicate with other TCAS equipped Aircrafts in the vicinity of the ill-fated airplane.

[Jagohu]

True, I was referring to the term "transponder loss at altitude" only, from the ATC point of view.
Thanks for the addition though.

[wileydog3]

Average depth of the Atlantic is said to be around 11,800ft. The Mid Atlantic Ridge is in the area and it is more than 20,000ft deep,

Recovering the CVR and FDR is going to be an incredible and technologically daunting task.

[CDN_ATC]

Not sure about Atlantico/Dakar, but NY Oceanic and Gander Oceanic AF uses CPDLC to make position reports, there world normally be an HF frequency assigment as well I'm assuming?

I'm also assuming that since the Air force has not said there was a position report via CPDLC then it did not occur.

[chucko]

You may recall that they were able to find and retrieve the forward cargo door from the United 811 accident from the bottom of the Pacific. Also, the Russians were able to retrieve the black boxes from KAL 007.

[OntarioCopper]

"The plane "crossed through a thunderous zone with strong turbulence" at 10 p.m. Sunday and an automatic message was received fourteen minutes later reporting electrical failure and a loss of cabin pressure."

As reported int he Toronto Star.

Over top of CB at 35'000 having to descend for loss of cabin pressure, not a good scenario.

[Hotel Mode]

Does anyone familiar with this route know if it is normal to transit Atlantico without calling in?

Its not right, but Atlantico is often very difficult to contact on HF. I'm on my 6th ASR about it. Only N'Djamena and Luanda are worse. So whilst its not ideal, no, its not unusual to have loss of comms.

[Airbubba]

Is this the first loss of an ETOPS twin in the ETOPS portion of the flight?

ETOPS has been around for a quarter of a century, I can't think of another instance of this type of mishap.

[rwremote]

I remember flying Varig from Europe to Rio in 2001 on a MD11, it was about the same time of year and we had an incident in or around the ITCZ.

I was partly sleeping at the time, but I woke up with a start with people and paraphernalia flying around the cabin and me being held in place by my seat belt. This wasn't just free fall, we went down ! After a period of about 5 seconds (seemed like an eternity), there was one hell of a bang and the aircraft went careering upwards. I remember looking out of the window and seeing the wing nav lights going up past my field of view, the wings must have resembled a "V" shape, then it all steadied out again, and cabin staff and pax patched each other up.
We carried on to Rio though without any divert - so there is some serious wx in the ITCZ this time of year.

My question(s), if anyone can answer it (them).
I'm in the field of Aviation Satellite comms and whilst I know the hardware and RF methods, I'm at a loss to know what data is actually transmitted.
So, if the ACARS message regarding the Electrical Malfunction (and "possible" cabin de-pressurisation) was received, would it not be normal practice to add a few more bytes of data and include the a/c position ?
If the ACARS was automatically generated due to an anomaly in the A/C systems, I would have thought a position report would have been a part of the sent datagram for safety reasons ?
Is there a required standard format for content of ACARS messages, or is it left up to the company in question ?

[stadedelafougere]

Just to Bring corrections, it seams that both the CEO of Airfrance (Gourgeon) and the head of communication made statements about this tragic accident, and not a mere muppet.

Of course everyone could speculate about what caused the loss of thies aircraft and the probable loss of its occupants. So far, it seams that a failure message mentioning the electrics was sent via ACARS to the MCC, and maybe, a loss of pressurization (how can those two events be related?) which remains to be confirmed.
The sending of the ACARS message does not necessarily mean that the event affect the safety of the on-going flight. Besides, we have absolutely no idea (only AF, airbus and the BEA know that) what electrical failure was reported (total failure, partial failure??).
For sure, recovery of the black boxes is needed for both the airline (and probably the insurance company) and the manufacturer (with underlying national interests since France is twice as involved by the operating company and by the manufacture). I hope the French government will do whatever it can to find these precious black boxes that will probably reveal how the slces of swiss cheese lined up to lead to this dramatic event.

[pattern_is_full]

At this time of year it is easy to encounter thunderstorms that can only be "flown over" by a U-2 or SR-71. I doubt any current airliner can top a 60,000-ft (12 Km) CB. My wife was SLF on a flight Sat. that was "dodging" thunderstorms, not flying over them. And that was over dry land in daylight, not a big swath of solar-heated ocean in the black.

The ITCZ is the birthplace of Atlantic hurricanes. We Yanks tend to be aware of it, since we are at the receiving end of the output. It's a rough place, and this is the beginning of its most active season. It can form a "wall" of storms that would require a 400 NM (or more) diversion to go around.

I'd put money on a weather-induced in-flight breakup. But the exact sequence of events and contributing causes (WX radar failure? Airframe failure caused directly by extreme turbulence? Airframe failure due to overspeed caused by loss of control?...etc.) may never be clear.

Which doesn't rule out something different - that's just the way I'd bet now.

I'm not sanguine about finding the FDR in a random part of the Atlantic that may span 100 square miles of water 2 Km deep. But maybe someone will get lucky...

[Quintilian]

Pattern_is_full: Not that it matters, but according to charts the tropopause kicked in at FL510 over the TS-area earlier today, so no CBs over FL510.

[barrymung]

In reply to #183, yes, you would have thought that positional data would be transmitted under these sort of circumstances.

However, I'm not sure when the system was developed, maybe it was designed in pre GPS days?

As the system allegedly reported an electrical failure, it's entirely possible the part responsible for providing positional data had failed.

[khorton]

Loss of AP is one thing, but what of loss of electrics altogether? I've heard A320 pilots refer to it as "Sparky" because if electrics are lost, it becomes a lawn dart. I'm interested to know, how might the A330 compare in this occurrence?If all electrics are lost the pilot still has pitch trim for pitch control, and the rudder for lateral-directional control. The pitch trim wheel in the cockpit is connected by cables to the control of the hydraulically powered pitch trim actuator. The rudder system is conventional hydro-mechanical control, with cables going from the cockpit to the rudder actuators.

Airbus did an approach and landing using pitch trim and rudder control only on an A320 during flight testing as a company test, in very good weather conditions (this is mentioned in "Cowboys d'Airbus", Bernard Ziegler). But they are very careful not to claim that it would be practical to count on this being possible in service, in real world conditions.

But, even though pitch trim and rudder do provide very limited control without any electrical power, it could get ugly pretty quickly if you combined this with the turbulence from a CB.

Note: none of the above is intended as speculation about what occurred on this flight. It was simply intended to answer the question posed earlier.

[Aerospace101]

Can PAX still use sat phones etc if fitted? during emergency / loss of press etc.

[CDN_ATC]

It depends where they went down....

Here is the chart of the area with the known info at this time:

http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i247/av8rpei/AF447Crash1-1.jpg

[wilyflier]

thpaulsen,
Doesnt a really big CB punch up through the tropopause? Tops above cruising height anyway

[grimmrad]

Can the ACARS message be triangulated for the approximate location? Other stations receiving it? Also, is there any possibility to include the current location with it (and should it maybe required to send exactly that information every 10 minutes or so to comapny for cases like these...?)

Disclaimer: Not working in avaition industry.

[cws]

for what its worth, I followed the AF Flight by 5hours from Brasil to Europe unaware of what happend, but did not hear any ELT on the whole flight on 121.5.

[jotape]

Wake up and smell le cafe...

If you thought the full story concerning the tech reasons behind BA38 was a little bit managed: "still not too sure about how this whole fuel/pump/ice thing happens but hey let's not ground all the 777s because its way too much money to lose and in any case - thanks to the BA pilot skills - nobody died..." - then you ain't seen nothing yet !

There is a complete convergence of interests at AF and Airbus to make sure once the black box is discovered the full story is totally managed so that we don't even think that maybe the A330 family (and for that matter the A340 family with which it shares so much) should be grounded until the mystery is solved...
Remember its one big statist monopoly all-been-to-the-same-school group of people that run industry in France...

P.S. Not anti-French nor anti-AF nor anti-Airbus - just providing a reality check !

[eagle21]

http://3.bp.*************/_Xnchn6B0ZXA/SiPvrtnX69I/AAAAAAAAIZU/9Bc2e2d5KDY/s1600-h/South-Atlantic.JPG

http://student.britannica.com/eb/image?id=6004

Is the aircraft went down shortly after sending the failure messges to the AF MCC, ( 50NM after TASIL) , then the FDR and CVR shouldn't be deeper than 4000 meters, with some luck not even more than 3000 meters.

[B777FD]

It has been mentioned in this thread that the CVR and FDR locator signal has a range of 2 miles. Just ran an online conversion, that's 10560 feet (for statute mile at least). Is it possible the ocean is deeper than this?

Maybe tough to find within 30 days. :(

[barrymung]

Assuming that reports are true and there was also cabin depressurisation, it appears as though there was a fairly catastrophic structural failure of some sort.

The A330/A340 differs from a lot of other airliners in that it has a horizontal tail section made from carbon fibre. Other sections of wing etc are also made from CF These sections contains a rather sizeable fuel tank.

When a metal section of aeroplane is hit by lightning, generally the charge is dissipated throughout the whole fuselage and damage is minimised. Carbon fibre, however doesn't dissipate a charge in the same way. Lightning hitting a carbon fibre panel usually results in sparking within that body cavity..

Whilst aircraft manufacturers go to great lengths to minimise the effects of lightning striking carbon fibre panels it's possible that such a strike could thus cause sparking inside the fuel tanks.

On the B787 there is a "fuel tank inerting" system that fills the "air" space of the fuel tanks with nitrogen in order to minimise the risk of ignition.

Does anyone know if the A330/340 is fitted with a similar system?

[alexmcfire]

Any tracking record for the ships in the area?

[Re-Heat]

To point out some deep inaccuracies about the depth of the Atlantic - read Atlantic Ocean - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Ocean) (always a good bulwark against BS).

The principal feature of the bathymetry (bottom topography) of the Atlantic Ocean is a submarine mountain range called the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. It extends from Iceland in the north to approximately 58° South latitude, reaching a maximum width of about 1,600 kilometres (1,000 mi). A great rift valley also extends along the ridge over most of its length. The depth of water over the ridge is less than 2,700 m (8,900 ft) in most places, and several mountain peaks rise above the water and form islands. The South Atlantic Ocean has an additional submarine ridge, the Walvis Ridge.

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge separates the Atlantic Ocean into two large troughs with depths averaging between 3,700 and 5,500 metres (12,000 and 18,000 ft). Transverse ridges running between the continents and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge divide the ocean floor into numerous basins. Some of the larger basins are the Blake, Guiana, North American, Cape Verde, and Canaries basins in the North Atlantic. The largest South Atlantic basins are the Angola, Cape, Argentina, and Brazil basins.

The deep ocean floor is thought to be fairly flat, although numerous seamounts and some guyots exist. Several deeps or trenches are also found on the ocean floor. The Puerto Rico Trench, in the North Atlantic, is the deepest at 8,605 meters (28,232 ft). The Laurentian Abyss is found off the eastern coast of Canada. In the South Atlantic, the South Sandwich Trench reaches a depth of 8,428 metres (27,651 ft). A third major trench, the Romanche Trench, is located near the equator and reaches a depth of about 7,454 metres (24,455 ft). The shelves along the margins of the continents constitute about 11% of the bottom topography. Several deep channels cut across the continental rise.

[pax britanica]

Jotape , just to add to your Francophobia the French have one of the largest fleets of submarine cable repair ships in the world and these are the optimim vessels for black box recovery in a situation like this.

Yes France is a pretty 'integrated' country but no more so than the US when it comes to self interest and if we Brits had any interests left to manage after we bankrupted them or sold them to foreign entities we would behave in exactly the same way.
I think you will find coffee smells the same the world over

[BigHitDH]

Trainee (non-commercial) pilot question. So, you get hit by lightning during the cruise, have some electical issues (maybe loss of HF coms) and pressureisation problems. Do you descend into CB's?

[vapilot2004]

@ Grimmrad:

ACARS triangulation would be possible if receiving stations commonly used directional antennas. Unfortunately, they do not.

[Sparelung]

BigHitDH

From a physiology point of view, with loss of cabin pressurisation, you don't really have a choice about descent. Supplementary oxygen only lasts for a short while.

[22 Degree Halo]

Here is the ship tracker: Ship locations (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml)

[kingoftheslipstream]

At FL350, if the decompression was rapid the time of useful consciousness (TUC) is 'round 30-60 seconds, dependin' on various factors.:uhoh:

A slower rate would have provided more time fer the crew, provided tha cabin altitude didn't get too high too quickly an' they got their masks on.

Interestin' to note the AF talkin' heads are spinnin' a lightning strike; weather related cause this early in the game...:suspect:

[pattern_is_full]

thPaulsen: Your clarification duly noted.

eagle21: It's still a big ocean, but yes, the final impact site may well have been over the Sierra Leone Rise.

Would it be correct to say that if the black box pingers have a range of 2 miles, a searcher would either have to be directly over them at 2 miles range, or at the same depth and within 2 miles laterally? I.E. the slant range would have to be no more than 2 miles total (ignoring the possibility of thermoclines that might change the effective range substantially one way or the other)?

[eagle21]

Hi based on a very innacurate position of N6 W29 , I have found the following ships nearby.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml?lat=6.0&lon=-29.0&radius=300

Ship locations (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml?lat=6.0&lon=-29.0&radius=300)


LEXA MAERSK and ARNEBORG seem to be within 250NM from my assummed position.

[alexmcfire]

Ship locations (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml)
is the best I can find, is it possible to get a picture of ship locations when the plane dissappeared?

[Dani]

Even if there is an area of 400NM of CBs - you cannot fly through. Flying through a core of a CB means certain death. Books say: fly around it at least 20 NM. You should never fly over or under them.

If they did - well, then that doesn't put a good light on them. Maybe they lost the radar (because of lightning), as someone already mentioned. It happened to me over Malaysia once and it's not a good feeling.

btw I flew 3000 hrs in the tropics and crossed the ITCZ up to 4 times a day. There is no big problem, you just have to do right thing.

Dani

[grizzled]

pattern is full: The answer is yes; you are correct. And, as you also correctly allude to, the oceanic envronment is far more variable and unpredictable compared to the atmosphere in terms of signal propogation.

Having said the above, I reiterate my earlier comment: The recorders will almost certainly be located and retrieved.

[Re-Heat]

Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?centerx=30&centery=25&zoom=2&level1=140#)

Check on the nautical maps for depths; vessels updated constantly.


Nearest location - the uninhabited St Peter and St Paul rocks - Saint Peter and Paul Rocks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Peter_and_Paul_Rocks)

[eagle21]

Water temperature is around 27-28C in the area at the moment.

[Aerospace101]

Trainee (non-commercial) pilot question. So, you get hit by lightning during the cruise, have some electical issues (maybe loss of HF coms) and pressureisation problems. Do you descend into CB's?

Surely, it's like having press problems over high terrain. Do you descend into a mountain? No. Find an escape route...

[Evening Star]

thpaulsen,
Doesnt a really big CB punch up through the tropopause? Tops above cruising height anyway

Yes, a big CB can. Amongst others, Liu and Zipser (Liu, C., and E. J. Zipser (2005), Global distribution of convection penetrating the tropical tropopause, J. Geophys. Res.,
110, D23104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006063. (http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/~maria/Bpapers/Liu-_-Zipser_JGR_2005.pdf)) indicate that this is more common over land, although with a reasonable distribution over the oceans along the equator. Furthermore, the oceanic tropopause penetration is more likely to be nocturnal.

[HeathrowAirport]

The region of were the wreck likely is unless its nearer to the coast, so Im not speculating were it is, becuase I dont have a clue. However the water pressure at the bottom of the Atlantic is very heavy, something like several tons per inch, about 31 bar, 465 psi, 3100 kPa per 1000ft, looking at the figures thats roughtly would put that plane 2.5 miles down, so surviving it is remotely Impossible, The only things to implode on a person are the lungs and air cavities, and the inner ears. Not the bodies itself, so if you can get a sub down there its recoverable but then with a storm nearby the surface of the water will be mirky, so its likely going to be a few days, maybe weeks.

If looking at that map, its near enought if the wreck has sunk its about the depth of the titanic so were talking about only seven submersibles in the world can go to such depths.

[tsgas]

The last AF Airbus to be destroyed because of the threat of lightning was an A 340 in YYZ
( Toronto, Canada)

[funfly]

Dilemma surely is that an instant breakup would have scattered debris over a wide area which would surely have been found by now. Descent required to get everything under water would have required the airframe to hold together and therefore have given time for crew communications. I assume that there are comms if the main power goes off.

[Zulu01]

Very sad and makes us transatlantic flyers think.

I see everyone talking about a 2 mile range on the CVR pinger , I went back to the Helderberg report and they say 4 mile range underwater and possible to hear via sonar pickup.

They trolled the ocean with a 3-4 mile sonar buoy for 2 months , just in case despite knowing the battery would only last 30 days. Eventually using sidescan they found the wreck.

I would think a submarine dispatched now would find this within a few weeks as their equipment is by far the most sensitive,

South Africa did not have this luxury for the Heldeberg , but still found one recorder and retrieved about 1% of the wreckage at a depth of 4500meters

[Sparelung]

Aerospace101

Re: the escape route - As an example The Andes terrain has an average height of 13,000ft (Wikipedia) - Most people can function normally at 13,000ft for a long time without oxygen. 35,000ft with nothing but storms below you is a different matter

[alexmcfire]

Sea swell seem pretty calm, 3 feet (1 meter) so I guess some debris must be found floating.
Arneborg tracking map (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=PHHD)

[mary meagher]

Hajik also refers to the l999 composite K-21 glider brought down over Dunstable; and I mentioned before that the UK Air Accident investigation found that the control rods were melted by the voltage of the strike, a more powerful one than anticipated by current airliner design.

We suspected that the pilots had been flying too close to the base of the cu-nimb. They survived (by parachute after the glider broke up in midair) to testify that they were several miles away from any cloud when struck. This was corroborated by witnesses on the ground.
So you do not have to fly into a cu-nimb to be clobbered.

I hope that designers of composite airliners have studied this report.

[SeenItAll]

The answer is, they can't. 900/1900 MHz cell phone signals at 0.6 watts aren't going to make it more than 5-10 miles, or so. Only possibility is if this A330 was equipped with some new system to permit mobile phone use in flight. Such a system would pick up mobile phone signals from inside the airplane, then retransmit them on some long-distance-capable frequency (perhaps via satellite) to some land location for re-injection into the public cell phone network.

[ImPlaneCrazy]

Ok as someone with very little experience, what are the chances of a successful ditch into the ocean bearing in mind the current conditions, and how long would the aircraft stay surfaced for if it was successful?

[iwalkedaway]

One wonders if the 02.14GMT ACARS transmission which the press has picked upon as news of "an electrical short circuit" could have been triggered by break-up of the airframe? How does ACARS react in transmitting malfunction data? Does it report instantaneously or periodically? If that signal was indeed a symptom of catastrophe then elapsed flight time along track would surely indicate a reasonable initial area to search...which presumably is what the Brazilians are conducting right now. Irrespective, this is indeed a sad and tragic businesss...

iwalkedaway

[Carjockey]

With no firm evidence yet available, it seems unusual that AF feel able to publicly state the cause at this stage.

Maybe they have information that they have not yet made available to the public?

[broadreach]

It's highly unlikely that the watch on a bridge will be looking out for falling aircraft; their view of the sky - from inside - is practically nil.

Having said that you can be pretty certain that all ships in the possible vicinity were alerted quickly and that at the very least their courses would be altered to cross the possible wreckage path. Ships traveling between East Coast South America and Europe are pretty much under the flight path and I would guess that at least twenty commercial vessels right now will have all the crew that's awake on a sharp lookout.

By the way Automatic Vessel Identification System or AIS only works in vhf range.

[stadedelafougere]

Message is normally sent via ACARS after several sensors confirm a failure (data are checked by a maintenance oriented system). So the sending of the failure message is not immediate. I would say the possibility of the message being sent during the break up is highly unlikely.

[Aerospace101]

Sparelung:

The flight crew would breathe 100% Oxygen under pressure at FL350. Sure it wont last forever, but longer than the PAX 15mins oxygen supply, and one would think give enough time for crew to find a suitable exit strategy. If the path behind was clear of CB activity, turn around and fly out the way you came in!?

[Frangible]

The reports of texts from the plane would not be the first tasteless hoax of this type. Someone was prosecuted in Greece, I believe, for pretending to have received a text from someone on board the Helios 737 that crashed near Athens.

[Christodoulidesd]

Yeap, in Cyprus, where i come from. It was a foreigner who was at the time living and working in Cyprus, and thought of playing the cruel farce of claiming he received an sms from a friend passenger on the plane that he saw the pilot of the plane turning blue in his face and running towards the back of the plane. And that the passengers were also freezing and that the alleged friend was scared.

Later on investigation prooved that he didn't know anyone on board and he was arrested when he admited the farce.

I think he (or his lawyer) later claimed he was either a lunatic or suffered from depression.

[ImPlaneCrazy]

And surely the ACARS would pick up a lot more failures if it was breaking up.

[barrymung]

For what it's worth ACARS is a fairly primitive digital system, invented in the 1970's and works in a similar way to Telex.

[astrodeb]

Responding to messages implying that airliners studiously avoid CBs:
As a scientist and relatively frequent SLF mostly in the US, I'd say that incidental CB penetration is fairly common. I've experienced many episodes over the years, usually at high altitudes when the PF is attempting to stay at the ATC assigned altitude and thread between overshooting tops hidden in the anvil cirrus. The last one was just a week ago over Colorado. As heard on Ch 9 on UAL, a missed ATC check-in led to confusion when the pilot requested a diversion around a CB. We were denied the turn and clipped the convective tower leading to violent updrafts and downdrafts for about 30 sec. Just about every flight over terrain in the southwest or anywhere in the southeast this time of year is a roulette wheel for convective excitement given the volume of air traffic around/over storms, and the Alps in summer speak for themselves. I think the biggest problem could be dry CB tops which don't show up well (or at all) on the WX radar (especially a problem over Africa, I gather). Flying through anvil cirrus or at night, I suspect the PF won't see it until the plane is inside it. Certainly, I have experienced night-time ITCZ CB penetration on the way to Australia where I saw the clouds and lightening prior to the turbulence. Of course, most of these are non-events in terms of fatal consequences (just a little more fatigue on the airframe and PF/CC/SLF nerves), but citing the manuals on CB avoidance doesn't seem to capture the true richness of today's flight environment. As to how CB penetration guidelines or lore may have contributed to today's tragedy, I only speculate, but normalization of deviance can be a killer.
Apologies for the non-pilot post - back to lurking...

[stadedelafougere]

To bring some corrections:

The passengers came from numerous countries:

Paris, 01 juin 2009 - 19h41 heure locale
Communiqué N° 5
Air France est en mesure de confirmer les nationalités des passagers qui se trouvaient à bord du vol AF 447 du 31 mai 2009, disparu entre Rio de Janeiro et Paris-Charles de Gaulle. Cette liste a été constituée sur la base des informations fournies par les autorités brésiliennes.

1 Africain du Sud
26 Allemands-Germans
2 Américains- US
1 Argentin
1 Autrichien- Austrians
1 Belge
58 Brésiliens
5 Britanniques
1 Canadien
9 Chinois
1 Croate
1 Danois
2 Espagnols
1 Estonien
61 Français
1 Gambien
4 Hongrois
3 Irlandais-Irish
1 Islandais
9 Italiens
5 Libanais
2 Marocains
1 Néerlandais-Netherlands
3 Norvégiens-Norwegians
1 Philippin
2 Polonais
1 Roumain
1 Russe
3 Slovaques
1 Suédois-Swedes
6 Suisses
1 Turc

[Aerospace101]

Unlike the hudson ditching, the air france ditching into the atlantic would be faced with;
-sea swell
-unstable atmospheric conditions
-night - no visual references
-no immediate rescue

Not the best conditions :(

[alexmcfire]

1 Africain du Sud-South African
26 Allemands-Germans
2 Américains- US
1 Argentin-Argentinan
1 Autrichien- Austrians
1 Belge-Belgian
58 Brésiliens-Brazilian
5 Britanniques-Great Britain
1 Canadien-Canadian
9 Chinois-Chinese
1 Croate-Croatian
1 Danois-Danish
2 Espagnols-Spanish
1 Estonien-Estonian
61 Français-French
1 Gambien-Gambian
4 Hongrois-Hungarian
3 Irlandais-Irish
1 Islandais-Icelandic
9 Italiens-Italian
5 Libanais-Lebanese
2 Marocains-Maroccans
1 Néerlandais-Netherlands (Holland)
3 Norvégiens-Norwegians
1 Philippin-Philippino
2 Polonais-Polish
1 Roumain-Romanian
1 Russe-Russian
3 Slovaques-Slovakian
1 Suédois-Swedes
6 Suisses-Swiss
1 Turc-1 Turkish

[Robert Campbell]

In the early to mid 90s I was doing air to air videos for kitplane manufacturers. Glassair in Arlington, WA was one of our clients.

There was great concern over the effects of lightning strikes on composite airframes. When hit by lightning, they often exploded.

The solution was to incorporate a wire mesh into the composite layers.

Glassair was also doing contract research for Boeing at the time.

[grizzled]

sottens, re buoyancy and DFDR/CVR.

It's not a stupid question; many safety experts and engineers have suggested and even worked on possible designs.

In essence there are some serious problems associated with a design that would work as intended, and with the requisite VERY high reliability. One simple example of a problem with the concept is that, in order for the recorder to not remain trapped under whatever sturcture or parts or debris it might be underneath, it would have to be "jettisoned" somehow, rather than simply "deployed". That in itself leads to a myriad of additional design, engineering, certification, and other issues. As always, any resultant action is a function of cost versus relative benefit. In this example, there are very few instances where recorders have not been retrieved -- regardless of ocean depth or location -- so there is really no incentive to spend the enormous amounts of time and money to change the current specs.

[ST27]

> how many bars of pressure can the black box take, because were that's situated on
> the aircraft surely has taken it down to the bottom of the atlantic withit, IF being the
> case. That blackbox will crush.

The US specifications, which I think are similar to those in other countries, require that they withstand depths of up to 20,000 feet.

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/CVR_FDR.htm

Note also that the NTSB site suggests that the pinger can be received at up to 14,000 feet (2.65 statute miles), though the way the description is written, one could infer that it won't work below 14,000 feet. In any event, a surface ship wouldn't pick up the signal if the box was at a depth of more than 14,000 feet without some sort of towed antenna.

[freshgasflow]

i am a non professional. I would like to know what the role of "fly by wire" could be in lightning storms. Presumably such aircraft have very high protection against electrical surges ? Are FBW aircraft more prone to control problems during electrical storms ?

[deltayankee]

-- so there is really no incentive to spend the enormous amounts of time and money to change the current specs.

and in any case this technology might be overtaken by improvements in data comms that allow key data to be copied to a server in a safe location during flight.

[air-cadet]

Sky says the presidents deliverd the news to the familys.
Its now very much a serch and recover mission.

[Max Stryker]

In answer to the post about a flight not being cleared to avoid and hitting the cb I'd like to add my two cents.

Don't ask for avoidance. Tell them you're avoiding. That's how I do it, and I've never had a problem yet. What they do to reshuffle what they have to reshuffle is their problem - but I'm not flying into a ****storm.:E

[silverhalide]

Air France annonce avoir localisé la zone où l'avion a disparu lundi matin, Am&eacute;riques - Information NouvelObs.com (http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualites/international/20090601.OBS8800/avion_dair_france_disparu__au_moins_40_francais_parmi_l.html )

Rough translation from Google reads:

"Air France announced it has located the area where the plane disappeared Monday morning. The CEO of Air France says that the area was located "a few tens of miles around. Des passagers de 33 nationalités dont 61 Français, 58 Brésiliens et 26 Allemands se trouvaient à bord de l'appareil. Passengers of 33 nationalities including 61 French, 58 Brazilians and 26 Germans were on board the aircraft."

[Diedtrying]

Just taken from the associated press website

Timeline of disappearance of Air France jet
By The Associated Press – 15 minutes ago
Timeline of events surrounding the disappearance of Air France Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, according to Air France, Brazilian Air Force. All times in Brazilian local time:

_ 7:03 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane left Rio de Janeiro. Brazilian Air Force says plane left at 7:30 p.m.

_ 10:30 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane has last contact with Brazil air traffic control. Brazilian Air Force says last radio contact at 10:33 p.m., 351 miles (565 kilometers) from northeastern Brazilian city of Natal.

_ 10:48 p.m.: Brazilian Air Force says last radar contact with Brazil indicated plane flying normally.

_ 11 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane entered zone of storms and high turbulence.

_ 11:14 p.m. Sunday: Air France receives automatic message indicating electrical circuit malfunction.

_ 11:20 p.m. Sunday: Brazilian Air Force says plane fails to make previously scheduled radio contact with Brazil. Brazil notifies air traffic control in Dakar, Senegal.

_ 2-3 a.m Monday: Air France says French military radar begins searching for plane.

_ 2:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it mounts search and rescue mission with two planes.

_ 4:30 am Monday: Air France says it sets up crisis center.

_ 6:15 a.m. Monday: Plane's scheduled arrival in Paris, according to Air France.

_ 8:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it was told by Air France about the message the plane sent to the company. The message indicated technical problems, including a loss of pressure and an electrical system failure, Brazilian Air Force says.

[eliptic]

Truth is we just don't know and the thought that over 200 people have probably lost their lives is a very depressing one tonight.

Agree,,if i was in that plane i would prefer a instant end at 30´Ft then a "second end" in the Atlantic Sea

Horrible day

[413X3]

it lost all communications with the airplane and an hour later it went into a thunderstorm, and from there somehow it either broke up or crashed to the sea? Looks like there is a complicated answer to what happened but it will take some time to figure it all out. Sad for all involved

[testpanel]

Just a thought; could the captain be asleep "in the back" and the 2 "youngsters" up front? :(

[Ber Nooly]

Here is the EUMetsat site where you can see satellite pics for the area for various times. Certainly was some vigorous convection, as seen if you view the loop around 0600Z

EUMETSAT IPPS animation - Meteosat 0 degree Infrared 10.8 America (http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/COLOR/AMERICA/index.htm)

[Lost in Saigon]

It depends where they went down....

Here is the chart of the area with the known info at this time:

http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i247/av8rpei/AF447Crash1-1.jpg




The ACARS message has supposedly been received at 02:14Z which is prior to the 02:20 ETA for TASIL.

[Flap 5]

i am a non professional. I would like to know what the role of "fly by wire" could be in lightning storms. Presumably such aircraft have very high protection against electrical surges ? Are FBW aircraft more prone to control problems during electrical storms ?

I have had three lightning strikes on the A330 with little effect. On just one occasion the lightning struck the nose wheel doors on the descent and they slammed open and shut. Fortunately we were descending below 10,000 feet and were at 250 knots, a higher speed could have torn the doors off. The wires joining the flight controls to the computers and the surface actuators are very well screened in thick white plastic. The Airbus does seem to attract lightning but there has never been a serious incident until, maybe, now.

[steve_austin]

Are there any plans to develop a flight recorder device that - instead of " recording" data to a HD/tape, relays data real-time, or batches in near-real time, to a company's maintenance center, or, say, an agency or business that can store this data in the appropriate media and then archive it? Perhaps a passive system that only activates if a certain number of conditions are met, a certain number of faults/conditions that may indicate abnormalities?

It seems kind of weird that someone has not come up with the idea of capturing flight data (or at least part of it), compressing it and relaying it out of harms way via an encrypted protocol, at least for trans-oceanic flights where data retrieval may prove difficult or impossible.

We can steer rovers in Mars, send and retrieve commands to orbiters on other planets, pilot drones in war zones across the planet but we can't downlink text data from a commercial airplane?

[TckVs]

Testpanel, first rest is normaly 3rd crew. ie the fo in pnf seat on the way out.
Unlikely. Could be wrong of course. I don't work for AF.

[YHZChick]

testpanel: Just a thought; could the captain be asleep "in the back" and the 2 "youngsters" up front? http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/sowee.gif

Oh come on!

Captain 11,000 hrs TT (1700 on Airbus A330/A340)
Copilot 3,000 hrs TT (800 on Airbus A330/A340)
Copilot 6,600 hrs TT (2600 on Airbus A330/A340)

Just because they're first officers DOES NOT mean they aren't capable of handling an emergency situation.
Your post implies that the 2 first officers are somehow lesser pilots than the captain.
:ugh: