More highly skilled ATCOs

[Slo Moe]

This one is a sure factor that will for sure lead
to the number of ATCO:s to be adequate
(enough gentlemen/ladies on the seats to handle complex situations that
this kind of new demands will lead to.)

Airline Emissions: Even Worse Than You Think
http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/05/airline-emissio.html

It is evident that one more factor will be
put on the demand list of ATCOs: It will not be enough
to maintain an orderly and safe and expedient flow of traffic.
Most likely the emission factor (fuel efficiency) will be on the
list of demands that ATCOs will have to meet in the near future.
and the training level of all ATCOs must be on par
with the requirements of the amount of traffic.

It might even be possible that the airlines might start promoting
to recruit more ATCOs, since there is a direct correlation
on the quality of ATC service to the number of ATCOs.
Because this leads to more open sectors in ATC. And less
workload per person, thus the guys/gals can plan their traffic
more optimally.

And this is especially true if and when the new
kinds of procedures will take place that are required to
achieve fuel savings. Training needs quite a lot of manpower etc...

I can see only one way to give enough direct routings and
optimum flight profiles to counter this kind of phenomenon.
The best we can do is to ask that there are enough
ATCOs and proper training caused by the new demands
for all the professionals in ATC, to do all that can be done to save fuel.

Fuel prices have had also the tendency to soar.
Proper amount of ATCOs (enough open sectors)
will lead to MORE direct routings,
optimal flight profiles. This will lead directly to savings
for the airlines. And the reduction of emissions.
That is for sure.

The technical advancements in airplane engines
will take at least 10-15 years to be effective, so in the meanwhile
it is the best thing that there are enough ATCOs.

[055166k]

Far too long.....fell asleep....is there a shorter coherent version?
Why are you anonymous? Who/what/where are you?
One million eyes are waiting to help if only there was a question.

[Moira]

It might even be possible that airlines might start promoting
more ATCOs, since there is a direct correlation
on the quality of ATC service to the number of ATCOs.

The technical advancements in airplane engines will at least take 10-15 years to be effective, so in the meanwhile it is the best thing that there are enough ATCOs

For :mad: sake, get real!

What makes you think that getting enough (more) ATCO's all over the world would be feasible so easily? In many places maintaining staffing at the present levels is already a huge challenge ...

[Slo Moe]

What makes it a challenge?

I suppose there is some kind of income that ANSP:s
generate that can be used to something.

Maybe for hiring and training ATCOs?

[Moira]

You don't get it. It's not so much about money.

There is a whole generation of controllers who are quickly approaching their retirement age. Replacing them in time is already a challenge (as you will find on some other treads).

You state about pilot training:
Training needs quite a lot of manpower etc...
So does ATC training. And it takes a while too.

And since it is a world-wide problem headhunting controllers away from their current positions just shifts the problem to a different place.

[Slo Moe]

055...

The real question is:

How do we get more ATCOs on the seats?

More ATCOs are needed.

Or are they?

I am confident that more ATCOs can be recruited.
And will be recruited.
It is a matter of will, time and attitudes (about the costs that ATCOs "represent").

The second question is
Which costs more?
Twenty tons of fuel of an airliner or the salary of an ATCO?

To the ANSP the salary costs more.
To the customer of the ANSP (airlines) the fuel costs more.

More direct routings, more optimal profiles, less costs of fuel.
More sectors open, more optimal routings.
More sectors open, more ATCOs needed.

[Moira]

They probably can be recruited.
But where/when/by who will you train them?
Training capacity is limited.

And improving sparetime simulators to use them for training, as suggested by you on an other tread is no solution. OJT will still be required, no sim can replace that.

[Slo Moe]

Moira you are quite much right.
ATCO training takes time. And it takes money.
In many cases at least the OJT training will be done with a
qualified controller watching by. With a salary
of at least a normal ATCO. Sometimes even more.

More training capacity costs more money. For the ANSP:s that is.

Less training capacity, less costs. Less air traffic controllers.
Or at least on a measured period of time.

So what should be done to get more ATCOs to the seats?

I think it is quite possible.

[Moira]

Slo, I get a feeling you're turning my words somewhat around.
For the record: I don't agree with your point of view, you're making it sound way to simple.

Training capacity is not just limited by financial means or the willingness to spend more money on training. It's also limited by human factors. In busy working environments you can't just put one (let alone more) trainee next to each fully qualified controller.

[Slo Moe]

Moira: You are quite right. The training capacity
in many ATC facilities should have been upgraded and
updated years ago to have more capacity, i.e. more throughput.
That is the training system should produce more ATC:s.
I think we can agree on that, can we?

Now that this has not been done, because of monetary
reasons (saving money) many an ATC training system has
come to the limits that the "bums on the seats" are needed
fully to be sitting on the very seats to control the aircraft.
And they can not be taken to train new controllers. The case is not
this dire in many places, but the trend is clear.

So something needs to be done.

It seems quite much that the savings made earlier
will lead to quite high costs now or in the near future.

If we assume that some of the ANSP is so tight on personnel, that they
can not take any ATCO from the seat, then they would have to pay
overtime compensations to get the operative controllers
to do training in their spare time. Or they will have to
buy training from outside, from some training company.
(roughly triple or more the cost compared to in house training)

The question is:
How to get more controllers, since they are needed?

I think we can agree on this also.

It seems quite possible, some attitudes about money
might need adjustment.

[Slo Moe]

Moira, after reading your post and my earlier posts
more carefully, I must say that I quite much did not
suggest to use spare time simulators
to train ATCOs.

The answer obviously for getting
more ATCOs is somewhere.
It is a matter of will to find the solution.

It might also lead to some benefits for the customers.
Saving fuel costs, potentilly better safety, etc.

[Slo Moe]

Verci:
I am sorry to give impressions of that kind.

I have 10 years of experience as an ATCO.
I would like to keep my anonymity, since this
is possible.

The reason I try to write as plainly as possible is to
promote understanding, (to save time, just like many ATCOs
I am a bit lazy, I would not like to explain myself that much)

And about your command of languages, I am impressed!

[SINGAPURCANAC]

@ SloeMoe,
you just started the Thread of future. This is the most important question for future ANSPs and air carriers. As someone who is highly involved in such question and trying to rise attention within system but it is going very slowly. If I am honest i should say,it sounds like there is no chance to do it,but mother nature is the only factor. They will go to pension and then we will do it.
This is the list of things that are the main constraints to more effective direct routing :
- Too much military presence. things changes a little bit with FUA concept but it is hard to work with them. you should explain to France Air force generals that they should avoid some areas during mid summer. (FAF is only example nothing better,nothing worse than others).
- As I said some people from management level must go to pension.
-Also ANSPs and air carriers must seat down on table and start to work together.
-Regional cooperation is good but we need European level.
-oil is still not too expensive. Action could be expected at level of 200$/barrel
- More sectors in Europe ,doesn't mean more direct routes. Why? Because ,one sector(big one) manned by one /two ATCOs could decide without any coordination any direct routing within their sector. If you divide this sector on two/three sectors for the same direct routing ATCo from first sector should make big coordination with adjacent sectors in order to give direct routing. And sometimes,you can't do proper coordination for such action and a/c will fly point by point,not DCT.
- If sector is too big than is too much complexity over EXE ATCO so he/she is not able to give the most fuel efficient route,because he/she has lot of other duties.. In such cases you will see more common option among ATCOs( keeping their license rather than traffic efficiency). Nothing bad with this. it is so natural.
-EC has SAAM tool that could help in such problems(designing proper sectors) but this is only tool, and not quite accepted but users.
-No one still is designated as institutional leader -for such question.
How big is that problem read this story:
-On some local route(500 Nm) ,crew often REFUSED DCT routing even this could reduce track distance by at least 150 Nm. Why? Because,if they accepted shorter route it means that they will reduce flight time and there is no enough time for flight attendants to serve food and drinks to passengers. Believe or not!
-Even Europe is becoming one state(more and less) at RNDGS meetings you will hear a lot of "local" political interests that block any improvement. You need approval from many parties for any new route because Europe is still fragmented, and if something is good for Greece it doesn't mean that it wouldn't destroy vital national interests of Sweden(again only example)
- a lot of work is ahead of us,and administration is always afraid of work.
- if you have ever spent a day within ATC you will know how big :mad: are HRMs . So no chance that something will happen in terms of staffing level in long term future.
- More and more issues but I have to go....
Best regards,

[Slo Moe]

Singa...

Thank you for your thorough insight.

Lots of things can be done.
And will be done.

We see evidence quite much on
the face of newspapers that something
needs to be done. And quickly.

Actually I have evidenced one tropical
storm myself. We would rather reduce
them, if anyhow possible.

I understand that it is debatable, whether
the weather actually will improve, if
right kind of action is taken.

I would rather do all that can be done
to prevent Katrina, Gonu, Nargis et al.

However small actions.

[Slo Moe]

There is one more upside to this all.

If ANSP:s and airlines take real and true action to
cut down the emissions, then it is a potential
victory for the image of all the aviation business.

So it might be said that it is a clear victory for all of us.

And Singapurcanac. FUA is definately a step towards right direction.
That I have experience of. It demands also the change of attitudes
of the instructors and examiners and thus the change of attitudes
of the controllers. ( i. e. It is safe to give direct routings with proper
tools for MTCD, and when there are two controllers working on
one position etc...)The thing is that it costs money. I would
rather enjoy the money to be used when there
still is time to use it wisely.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Debate at one session:
" What will happen if we give to a/c at the departure end of runway(somewhere in South Europe) DCT OM LHR?"
"Probably,nothing special. some kind of chaos?
"usually we don't have chaos?!:confused:
"yes,we have"
" So what is the difference?"
" It is too hard,to change some things,today."
after that we put an imagined flight from very south of Europe to USA,early morning,requested FL 340,into SAAM simulation with real traffic for that summer day. And you know what happened? Nothing. One conflict,but no air miss or near miss,on the whole route,up to Scotland. Only one conflict without any input from ATC.
So some things are possible but fuel isn't so expensive .
the key for direct routings is in hands of OPEC ministers. Not in Europe.
Unfortunately.
Happy Europe day!

[BEXIL160]

Another question for you both, When was the last Outer Marker (OM)removed at Heathrow then....? Anyone? Bren?

and where was the nearest Fan Marker?

BEX

[SINGAPURCANAC]

In that case, take opposite direction. From LHR to my a/d. We still have OM.
But point was...

[Slo Moe]

Thank you Singapurcanac. This kind of information is very good.
It is counterintuitive to how I was trained (Keep'em on the airways etc...)
But it shows clearly that there are immediate possibilities to be used,
since there is the will.

There are a few professions and industries and marvels of today
that I have come to appreciate a lot.

One is the modern genetics. The whole new industry showed us, that
the people, who were not too much in peace in the near or
further past were virtually cousins, when studied carefully
from the point of view of the genes.

The other is the Internet. It has increased our possibility to really
understand, that our actions do matter. However small.

The third is the aviation industry as a whole. It has helped
tremendeously in understanding, how much alike we all are.
Regardless of our past, regardless of some differences in people
and their views of this world of ours.

Aviation has made possible the things that were available only to
a select few in the past.

We can now meet people from different countries and talk
with them. We can visit their beautiful and safe country
and enjoy their hospitality. We have the possibility to understand
that their opinions are very valuable just as our opinions are.

Now we can really call us the select few. (And this is not because of
the selection process...)

I would do quite a bit of things to preserve
the goodies that we have now.
Some things need to change in order to
enjoy the goodies also tomorrow.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Just before I go to holiday,
We are talking about DCT routing ,but we can still hear,
Two a/c. Head on traffic.100 Nm. lower wants to climb. It is non written rule(I wouldn't say the place) that you have to turn left/right by 30 degrees a/c that wants to climb. after established on new HDG than climb to requested level. Once passed level of second a/c then turn back to requested route.
Even ICAO said: radar sep min for such case is 5 Nm! Under no circumstances you are not allowed to do it "normaly" .
And we are talking about DCT routing and fuel efficiency...
Sometimes it sounds like utopia...

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

Bex... Don't know precise dates when the ILS markers were removed at Heathrow but it must be well over 20 years ago. If you don't count ILS equipment, I think the nearest fan marker to Heathrow was Chertsey, but that was removed 30+ years ago.

[Slo Moe]

It is true that current mindset in many an ATC facility is
that we rather would not want to "bother" our brother or sister
sitting in the next sector with questions about direct routings.

It is a mindset resulting from a long tradition and
long training towards this kind of thinking. It is not a rule
hammered in stainless steel.

It sure was very very good and safe, when
automated informationsystems in ATC were only a
vague dream, or so to say "a blink in the father's eyes".

The world has changed.

It will be very easy to incorporate new methods for silent
coordination. They are in use in many places already.
The challenge, that helps in the direction of lowering the emissions,
is to change the mindsets and coordination procedures
to fully appreciate and use the new technologies to give DCT routings.

It might require some new functions in the "radars",
but I would say that is even trivial.

And yes, it might cost some money to design such
functions that really help in silent coordination.

In the meanwhile the immediate solution might be a "COR"
position, that was very very successfull in the past, before
these "first generation silent coordination" functions in many
air traffic services units (ATSU).

It will cost some money too.

True and valid image of the whole aviation
needs some action, and it might cost some "beans".
But hey, wouldn't we all benefit from it?

[Slo Moe]

See Vercingetorix and Heathrow Director.

<Start of Off Topic>

There are numerous reasons why people want
to keep their anonymity.
To name a few:
* To save the family from the grief if somebody came a'knockin' on their door.
* To allow oneself to have a possibility to work where one wants
regardless of ones' opinions.
* To be courteus to allow others to draft their opinions without any
prejudices.
* To walk free although expressing ones' opinion
* To think freely without biases.
* To express thoughts freely regardless of age or status.

(People living on the other side of the moon are always
otherworldly etc.)

Prejudices are way too easy and trivial.

We pride ourself to be openminded and clever etc.

<End of Off Topic>


So how is it possible that change is easy ?

There seems to be some kind of possibility
in enhancing the numbers of ATCOs.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

<<There seems to be some kind of possibility
in enhancing the numbers of ATCOs.>>

So, what exactly is it?? You seem capable of writing huge amounts but no solution to the apparent problem....

<<It is true that current mindset in many an ATC facility is
that we rather would not want to "bother" our brother or sister
sitting in the next sector with questions about direct routings.>>

I don't think any ATCO - certainly not in the UK - is trained not to "bother" his adjacent colleague with routeing requests. It must happen ten million times a day in busy centres!!!

As for anonymity... I'm not asking for your name and/or address (although I don't mind people knowing who I am), but it would be nice if your profile gave some clue as to your status and location. You may not appreciate all the problems ATC faces regarding "direct routings" in busy airspace. Thousands of square miles of airspace may simply be unavailable due to military activity - exercises, live missile firing, etc. Plus other airspace users have to be accommodated. Outside of those busy areas aircraft are frequently given direct routeings. In busy terminal areas with many airports it is impossible to offer direct tracks A-B with so many aircraft wishing to fly in all directions.

Bren McCartney (Ex ATC EGLK, HLLT, EGTK, EGLL, EGTT with A/G, TWR, APP, APC RAD, Area Procedural and FIS experience)

[Slo Moe]

H.D. Sorry, I have time to answer only to couple of your
noteworthy points. I appreciate your points of view.

You are quite right, that in busy ACC:s (centres) the prevailing mindset
was that it was not too easy to give DCT routings, e.g. because of the clutter
caused by the sheer amount of traffic.
And numerous other reasons that were to the point, when they
were the solutions to the challenges of that time.
To the airspace reservations one solution that
is taken into use has been FUA.

One of the point is that with
modern technology it would be possible to do it in
a manner that is a bit upgraded and updated.

I am not a programmer, I can not give the full spex
due to that reason. There are quite good professionals
to that also.

To the point that somebody would want to disclose
some of their information. I truly appreciate their choice.

My choice in that particular matter is different.
Explanations, well they are based on my opinions.

If I have offended by my choices or opinions,
I could apologize. When I see the need or possibility to
upgrade or update them I will do it.
In some parts of the world it was a habit once to
throw stones because of opinions.

Some of my thoughts can be regarded "so last week".
So it goes.

To the point of recruiting more.
The answer is: Change of mindset.
Change of attitudes.
How ever you want to name it.
It might take a little while, but results will be reached.

Once again I apologize for the length of my postings.

"Learning to compress"
(With the tune of Pink Floyd, Learning to fly)

[anotherthing]

If the airlines really give a monkeys about being 'green', (instead of just wanting to be seen to be doing something), by getting direct routeings at optimum flight levels then the solution is easy:

Not more ATCOS (though it would help, though as per other ATC posters remarks on here - how do we achieve the huge uplift we need whilst maintaining standards - no point being green but dangerous)

The way the airlines become more green is by speaking to each other and coordinating flights - but what they will do is continue to fly to the same destinations as each other at the same time of day as each other and return likewise.

It is the saturation of aircraft on multiple routes which all cross each other that prevents direct routeings - a straight line route is easier for an ATCO to work on but it is not possible because although airlines will pass on fuel surcharges to customers, they dare not tell customers that they cannot fly to a certain destination on their airline at such and such a time because their competitors have that slot in an order to be green and to avoid congestion/holding/circuitous routes.

The solution (or at least the biggest portion of the solution) lies in the hands of the airlines - no one will hold their breath waiting for it to happen because of customer/market forces.

[Slo Moe]

Thank you Anotherthing.

Your reply seems to have good points.

As we see, with a little effort we have
at least devised two valid points to start from.

How many good ideas can we imagine?

[Slo Moe]

Vercingetorix,

Thank you for your reply.

It is an outstanding matter of fact that you brought this kind of
recollections to surface.

Now we know it can be done. It has been done before us.
We ATCOs truly stand on the shoulders of giants.
(We build our systems and thoughts and beliefs
on the concepts of earlier ATCOs.)

Thoughts are like attitudes. They can be changed, if needed.

Do you remember was it that frequent that 100+ knots
groundwinds hit inlands those days?

How about tropical cyclones ? Level 5+?

The answer to these questions is that there are
differing opinions
even about these crucial weather phenomena.

So would it be a wise thing to take a proactive stand?

[Slo Moe]

Wow. Thank you for that.

[Slo Moe]

Thank you for your kind words. Same to you, sir.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Back to reality,after holiday and regarding dct routing issue,
A few years ago, I predicted and called 2008/2009 winter season and further as "Consolidation". It was an "official" and recorded thesis. As 08/09 season approaches very fast it seems that I was on good track.
At that time we had expectation that fuel would cost around 100$,but we missed. It will be much more. Also we didn't know that serious delay of new a/c would happen and finally we couldn't predict loses in banking industry.
we based our prediction upon "batle" between LCCs and LCs . With new input scenario will be:
- High fuel prices will increase overall costs.
-It will rise ticket prices
- LCCs will be even more attractive
-LCs will try to remain their market share
- It will further reduce available airspace,
- With further delays/longer flying times between two points costs will increase significantly
-It will further increase ticket prices
-Middle class( Europe) is affected seriously by banking crisis,
-Their incomes are higher but worth less,due to inflation,
-So they can't afford new ticket prices
-It will reduce Load factor in many companies
-Airliners will reduce number of flights in order to reduce losses
- Some of old European LCs will disappear,but this time for real,
-It will reduce number of flights within IFPS zone,
-It means more space for those still playing game,
- AND DCT ROUTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ,BOTH OF THEM.
Also "Consolidation" thesis included more points but for DCT routing issues it could be described as enough.

[Slo Moe]

Excellent! Lots of well thought out information.
Might take some time to think about these.
Thank you very much!

From your previous mails I would like to point out one
very obvious point how the world has changed.

The simulation capacity nowadays is far better than 10-15 years ago.
It is possible to simulate for instance direct routeings or other good
"services" for the customers (the airlines). This leads to better fuel
efficiency. This leads to less greenhouse gases. This leads to better image
of the whole aviation. This leads to aviation giving more and more jobs in
the future. And the cost efficiency of the airlines get better, which helps in
keeping the ticket prices acceptable, which once again will help us get more
and more jobs to aviation. Sounds fair enough to me.

Intuitively, without sophisticated traffic flow simulations, it is quite obvious
that when traffic is funneled through a limited set of points, it might lead
to more congestion than DCT routeings. (My opinion).

It is a matter of bringing to surface just those very good examples just like
Singapurcanac has recently done to help all of us.:D
So it is possible, it is actually a very good idea, and it will benefit all of us.

Let's say that an advertizing campaign costs possibly 2-5 million Euros
to polish the image, if it was needed. How about using the same amount of
money to something that has a real and true positive impact ? And
then just email the proceedings to the news agencies. The advertizing
agencies might actually take part of the whole thing, they are quite much in
the "conscience economy" already. I am quite sure that the media will soon
be eager to deliver us good news. The other kind of news seem to be a bit
"last week", to my mind at least. I personally would read and subscribe to
good news happily and gratefully. Today.

We could say it's a "win-win-win" for all of us.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

From today's newspapers:
Spain rail company announced that they were planning up to 10 000 km of very fast train tracks i.e. 90% of population (I suppose mainland) would live within 50km from the nearest train station. So far they have achieved excellent results on Madrid-Barcelona and Madrid-Malaga-Sevila routes.
Effect on aviation?
Iberia announced drop in passenger taffic for 0.5% even they have already reduced number of departures between Madrid-Barcelona by 13%.
Spanair is also affected on route to Malaga and some LCC(I can't remeber name) is in big troubles,also.
As I wrote in previous post: Direct routing will be common in very near future all around Europe and shortage of ATCOs is not an issue any more.
I wouldn't be surprised if we face with overstaffing in near future.
Note: All infos has been picked up from dayli newspapers and it may differ from actual situation.
But there is no doubt about trend...

[Dizzee Rascal]

Is anybody else reading this and thinking WTF:confused:

[Tower Ranger]

Dizzee,
Thank God you said that! I was beginning to think i had either woken up in the middle of a really bad dream or I had somehow walked past the beer fridge and gotten drunk by osmosis!!
This Atc forum has really taken a nosedive recently and it appears some threads are completely beyond recovery.
Direct routings, avoiding fix bottlenecks, surplus controllers??? WTF! There is only one FAF at the end of the Yellow Brick Road and your gonna have to hold and wait your turn if you all get there at the same time.
Just my thoughts, maybe its time for a beer!

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

The word "waffle" spings readily to mind!!!!!

[airac]

Sloe Moe

When I work creatively, in either ADC or APS,I live suspended in a strange place that I cannot always account for. This happens too when I work logically, so it is not always a creative vs. logic split. Personally, I work probably 95% from analogy: monkey see, monkey do. Unlike you, I find it most difficult to talk in terms of inductive reasoning, metaphor, analogical reasoning, etc. In many cases, I do not think in any rational process that I can reconstruct later. Things seem to be right the way they turn out. But I cannot explain them. My thought process is not one that I can myself see. I therefore have tremendous problems understanding your thought processes. That is why the simplicity of “left” vs. “right” and the suspended space in the middle “feels” so right to me.:confused:

[SINGAPURCANAC]

@Dizzee Rascal,Tower ranger and others,
At first I don't understand your comments but it doesn't sound positive towards me, so I am asking why?
My last two posts for this topic is only my opinion based on research and experience and represents my prediction about civil aviation trends in Europe for short and medium term. I always accept comments and different opinions relating civil aviation issues but for full understanding please support your opinion and give adequate explanation. Saying that someone is idiot is not an argument in democratic discussion.
returning to the orginal problem,we have had next thesis so far:
-shortage of ATCO is obvious and it will be even worse in future unless HQ of ANSPs take appropriate action(Slo Moe and others)
- Direct routing is recognized as good solution and many of us are aware and implement it on different sclaes
The only thing that my opinion is qiute different from other opinion is shortage of ATCOs . I said that it wouldn't be an issue because:
-European economy is in problems
-Young generation(babyloosers) and middle class is higly affected by economic recesion and inflation
- Fuel would have never been cheaper,due to lack of oil rafinery capacity not wars and some "wealty" economies
-Many LCs didn't take an appropriate "reconstruction" and "consolidation"
-If they omit to do it while civil aviation has been in positiv part of cycle than I don't believe that they will be able to do anything now except closing the door.
-The previous down cycle was at summer of 2001 with the pick after 9/11
-From summer 2002 we saw positiv cycle . Peak was previous summer
-So now we are entering into recesion,no doubt at all.
-The maximum that we could expect for this summer is the same level of traffic as previous summer. But I will give my "fear" . Overall number will be less than previous year.
-Cycle is lasting 5 years
-There were no period in more than 70 yerars that proved differently.
-Up/Down is our destiny
- reasons for recesion vary but it will happen always.
-exception to rules always exist but Europe is not exception this time.
- Russia and ME have minimal chances to avoid current recesion
- On routes up to 600 km rail transportation will win. It is just matter of time. But it will happen faster than we expect
-It will reduce considerably number of commuter flights.
-It will give more available slots at bussier airports
-If current number of ATCOs succesfully deal with current traffic thay will be able to deal with reduced number of flights as well.
-HQ of ANSPs know this,so there is no real vacancy for expat ATCOs.(If they catch something it is good,but if don't no problems.There always will be enough local ATCOs with debts and they have to work overtime in order to return money to bank)

I know that this post is long but I have to explain my opinion. some people need an explanation.
Anyhow I will accept other opinion if it is backed up.
Best regards,
SINGA

[Slo Moe]

airac:

Thank you for your points. Excellent!:D

You are talking exactly of the core points:
Tacit knowledge. (Search from the internet, if interested.)

The other type of information on this scale is:
Explicit knowledge. (Search from the internet, if interested.)

Keywords on the search string could also inlude:
"Polanyi" "Nonaka" "Takeuchi", just to name the most widely recognized.
(My own opinion.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge

[Slo Moe]

Wow, Singapurcanac. :cool:
Once again top level expertise.

Some of (almost all) your points are based
on facts. Takes little time, to digest all the data.

[Skyjuggler]

I love this... It's a vast expanse of desert dotted with the occasional oasis.

The oasis being the posts of all who are completely and utterly confused!!!:confused:And possibly mildly frustrated!!!:ugh:

Vercingetorix...
<<Chaos reigns within.

Reflect, repent, and reboot

Order shall return.>>
This is my new motto!!!:D:D:D

[YRP]

after that we put an imagined flight from very south of Europe to USA

Y'all might want to consider simulating more than one flight on a direct route before concluding it is the solution to all solutions... :hmm:. Like maybe try it with all the airplanes direct...

But, taking the discussion slightly more seriously than it perhaps deserves, is the problem really the number of ATCOs? Are direct routes limited by ATCO workload (and by inference number of ATCOs) or by airspace. Suppose all the flight paths were calculated by some big computer, across all centers in Europe (for example). Given the same separation minima (5/1000'), how much better would it be able to do? Or are there just so many flight levels available?

[Slo Moe]

These are good and valid points all.

There is at least one "ATC-system project" that took at least
10 years to be completed, that I know of. There are some other projects
that never got to the completion phase.
And who knows every line of the programming code for sure?

Aviation is a special "art" because it needs so much back-up systems.
Almost all the systems are at least backed up with a secondary system
sometimes with a tertiary system. And so on.
It is quite wonderful how easy it is to increase the safety (i.e. "redundancy")
with adequately trained, highly qualified, personnel.

If it happens one day, let's say, in fifteen years that the computers took
some tasks from humans to "ease the strain", then there most likely will
be needed human interventions and "human touch" to control and
monitor those very systems. And the men and women in the ATC
are the ultimate fail safe network. When adequately trained and given the
chance for high quality rest etc.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

There seem to be ony two people on here who understand each other - Slo Moe and Singapurcanac. I gave up 2 pages back! On another thread the moderator accused someone of using too much bandwidth. He ought to come here.

[Loxley]

There seem to be ony two people on here who understand each other - Slo Moe and Singapurcanac. I gave up 2 pages back! On another thread the moderator accused someone of using too much bandwidth. He ought to come here.

Seconded! :D:D:D:D

[ATCO Two]

Thirded. Vacuous tosh and waffle with no substance or conclusions.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

I must confirm that you give me an adequate answer to my thesis. :E

[SINGAPURCANAC]

If you don't believe to me than:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/06/02/224391/fuel-price-hikes-to-impact-lccs-most-iatas-bisignani

[airac]

SINGAPURCANAC, Slo Moe

Skills in a given discipline, Area or Approach differentiate the novice from the expert. A commonly studied domain is chess playing. It is particularly suitable since it lends itself to representation in terms of problem space theory, in which the initial board / Aircraft configuration and the final position of the King / A/C sequence, constitute the states, while the moves appeared as transition operators. Masters took lesser time than novices to react to a situation and produced better moves. This is largely because chess masters / experienced ATCO’s remember board configurations, A/C positions and good moves associated with them. They can chunk the board configuration in order to hold it in short-term memory. Thus expeditious flow rates are achieved .
It's all quite obvious really.:=

[SINGAPURCANAC]

@ airac,
I didn't say a word,about issue that you wrote. it is so obvious ,really!
@ Verci,
You didn't give any evidence against my thesis. and Sloe Moe is not on my track,regarding shotage of Atcos. It is so obvious,really.
this forum is open for different opinion , and at least it is not correct to say that someone spending virtual space for nothing. My post are not in that direction.It is rather one view to current problem and short term future issues.
if you read carrefully, rather than to writte against.
Cheers,

[airac]

SINGAPURCANAC, Slo Moe


Look you two this thread is so wide of the mark it is unreal.
My initial post was I admit a Pi55 take, but you bit .

The second, well quite honestly you both deserve.
All I did was plagiarise from other articles and insert words /phrases/ and acronyms,
To imply a particular relevance to your original post

http://www.stthomasu.ca/publications/teaching/fall2000/malmoor.htm

I think was seventh paragraph down and,

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/cs6751_97_winter/Topics/human-cap/process.html

Well, read the whole paper if you like.

My point being, you can try to analyse ATC , all you like but

Bull sh1t Baffles brains every time.

Sorry :=:E:E:E

[Slo Moe]

Sorry, been a bit busy lately. Stockholm, Rome, Finland several places.
You'd really need a map to see where true men work...

I have experience for only a bit over 6 years in ACC, so
I agree with at least on the previous point about the fact
that experience is good in ACC and in TWR. I can not say anything
about radar APP, not been working there. I only suppose that
experience is good also in the radar APP.

BTW.
There is evidence that many of the incidents happen
during the OJT. Quite obvious that too.
Simulators help that point too.
Quite obvious point that one too.

My procedural APP experience is from 10 yrs ago.
My procedural/radar ACC experience ended in 2007.
My radar ACC experience (With Eurocat 2000) ended at 2006.

New ideas are quite OK. I'd rather discuss than spend
my time scratching&patching.

We aren't the knights of NIH, are we?

[bekolblockage]

http://www.ngv.vic.gov.au/picasso/education/images/weeping_VELS.jpg

I suspect this makes complete sense to you guys.

[Slo Moe]

Wow.You do have the eye for the colours. (Tutti colori.)

There is an ATC supervisor in Finland who told this following story.

They were building a fireplace inside their summer
cottage that is situated in the beautiful archipelago that rests in the lap of the
clean and safe and vividly living sea in the South-Western (SW) part of Finland.
(The very archipelago is The Largest and The Most Unique Archipelago
in the world and it is in Finland.
I happen to know; I used to work there in the Coast Guard of Finland as a
cook for one beautiful summer filled with vivid and colourful memories...).

The bricklaying craftsmanship professional was a very sharp guy,
who did not need any tools to measure his work.

So this supervisor from Finland asked the bricklayer:
"Do you only use your eyes to measure the things you do?"

The answer of the bricklaying professional was:
"The eyes are the best tool for seeing..."

BTW.
Ferrari. Italia. Kimi Räikkönen. Finland. :ok:

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Ferrari. Italia. Kimi Räikkönen. Finland.

Absolutely disagree,
Slavica. Eclestone.RS. Tamara,as well.:ok:

[Slo Moe]

Good opinions.:ok:
I disagree to your disagreement.;)

[Skyjuggler]

Sorry gentlemen, I'm afraid I have nothing to say.

I'm once again left aboslutely speechless...:oh:

[Slo Moe]

These are some stories that left me speechless
during my career and my training.

A retired supervisor, that I highly respect told this:
He was a driving instructor prior to entering the ATC.
When they were educated to be driving instructors a
part of the training was to visit the morgue. And the
message was "This is what you will learn to teach
your students to avoid."

And another story by a respected air accident investigator.
He told us novices on the ATCO basic course that
the aviation law and the aviation rules and
regulations were written with the blood of pilots.
:oh:

[Slo Moe]

What can be done, if there would not be more ATCO:s?

Its Back Against the Wall, Airline Industry Looks to Come Clean (http://www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/news/2008/06/ecoaviation)

Boeing Throws its Weight Behind Algae (http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/06/aviation-gets-b.html)

Clean(er), Quiet(er) Landings Coming To An Airport Near You (http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/05/flying-circles.html)