How sustainable is aviation?

[nick14]

Hi guys,

Im sat at my desk at home passing time untill my CPL flying training starts and am having one of those ethical/moral/environmental debates.

I was contemplating just how much fuel is used per day, with all the commercial flights,GA,Cars,trains etc. Must be millions of tonnes.

Reading about all these oil shortages and planned expansion for commercial flight etc just how long can we keep flying? what happens if we run out of oil?

sorry if this is in the wrong forum or is not a sensible question but i think its quite an interesting case for debate.

Id love to hear your thoughts as you will undoubtedly have far great knowledge than I

Nick:ok:

[Re-Heat]

Take a read of the Economist website; aside from the price of oil rising, prompting investment in other fuel sources (both renewable and non-renewable), you can see truthful estimates of CO2 emissions by industry.

Clearly fossil fuel usage is both very important to us and potentially an issue with warming the planet; while we have been used to nothing but oil in our lifetimes, rest assured both that there are other sources that will be burnt in the future, and that oil cannot strictly run out - simply that the little that is left become ever more expensive both to extract and sell, as the laws of economics prevail.

[nick14]

I appreciate your thoughts thankyou and will have a read.

so are there any new fuels on the way in the near future then?

nick

[nazri]

My personal opinion is that there will come a day when there will be lots of metal structures lying around (cars, boats, planes, etc) as there will be no fuel to propel them.

True, alternative sources like gasohol are being experimented with, but most of these and other renewable sources are insufficient or not practical to meet the demands of the exponential global population growth.

For example, gasohol is approximately a 9:1 ratio of gasoline:alcohol mix. But alcohol is obtained from fermentation of crops like corn. Corn needs to be grown and harvested. This is apart from the moral question of sacrificing food(corn) for fuel; food which could have been used to feed third-world populations instead of being fuel for aircraft.

Perhaps the best solution to a fuel crises will be nuclear power. Would anyone feel safe in a nuclear-powered cessna?:)


But I believe we who read this thread today will be long dead before such a day comes.

[UAV689]

but with only an estimated 35-40 years of fuel left it is bound to cut back on aviation, just think in 20 years time if there is only 10 years of oil left the price will be huge per barrel, and no doubt tax will be massive meaning air travel could well be out of reach of a lot of people...

i sit here writing this wondering if it wise to embark on a career in an industry which could potenially only give me 20-30 years of earnings....:confused:

[chris-squire]

I'm pretty sure the Oil supply has somewhere around 100 years left???
The thing is, we are all worried about what we're going to do but until the bloody US, China and India stop there hurrendous consumption rates then not much is going to change.

Look on the bright side, if you had said to someone 100 years ago that in the next century man (and woman!) would develop a means of jet propelled flight around the world in contraptions that operated 5 miles above the earth at over 500mph they would have sent you off to the looney bin!
With this in mind im pretty confident that something will be invented to overcome the oil crisis.

Chris :ok:

[WindSheer]

I have thought about this for years.....so now I drive trains!! :ok:

[Artie Fufkin]

If you want some truly apocolyptic reading on the subject, google "peak oil".

[dartagnan]

Dear Nick,

I have just burned 3 tons of JET A recently, in 1h30 minutes, all by myself, in a plane with 160 seats, all empty.

this was for the base training (6 landings)in airbus.

and it s REQUIRED by the JAR.

then our politicians say to all of us to save fuel and buy cheaper cars, what a bunch of hypocrites!!!

[saccade]

Always wondered why it is so quiet around this topic on pprune

Probably a slightly pessimistic view:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZnRA2m68&feature=related

But nazri is right that there is actually only one problem with the transition to alternative fuels: the enormous amounts required...

[Diaz]

What seems obvious to me is that an alternative to oil must be found, and this alternative is going to appear from somewhere in Asia, most likely from some kind of biological engineering- the reason why it's coming from Asia- much less restrictive 'ethics':ugh: than in Europe.

Something will turn up to change everything in the near future- perhaps an alternative to travel by air, perhaps the end of the world with a new ice age, who knows?

[ReallyAnnoyed]

There will never come a time when worldwide fuel is exhausted. Yes, there is a finite amount of oil on the planet, but fuels can be made synthetically. This has been the case for more than 60 years. So, why the hype about oil? Because of cost. Oil is cheap and has been cheap historically compared to synthetic fuels, but that does not mean that you can not fabricate the alternatives. Will depletion of oil have an effect on global economy, transportation and the energy sector? Without a doubt, but the world will not stop in any way. Depending on how costs of different fuels in the future develop, it will shape the fuel dependant industries. We can guess all that we want, but the fact of the matter is that only time will tell us where and when the breakthroughs in energy research will come. It is certainly getting more attention as the oil price spirals upwards. So, don't worry so much about the termination of airline transportation. In my view, the pilotless aircraft is a greater threat to this cosy job, but that is a different matter. I have a feeling, though, that I won't be allowed to retire before I hit 70 :}

[mrsurrey]

Please can someone post a linky to the economist article - it doesn't seem to be listed on their home page.

Thanks.

[Bigwings]

A search on The Economist website for articles relating to C02 emissions came up with this

http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9135283

Hope it helps

Bigwings :)

[411A]

Lets look at a few actual facts...and oddly enough, not often reported.
Oil was first found and produced in the alHassa basin in Saudi Arabia in 1938, by Chevron/Texaco...and yes, speaking here only of Saudi Arabia, because they have so much.:}
Now, looking just a little deeper, the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi is conservatively estimated to contain upwards of six-eight times the oil produced from the al Hassa basin since 1938...in other words, a whole bunch.
Don't like Saudi oil?
Look at Canada.
Huge (and I mean huge) amounts are there, and there is a very big push on now for its production, simply because the oil price now is favorable to make it all possible.
Face it folks, there is no real shortage of crude oil, but there definitely is a shortage of refinery capacity, especially in developed countries, including the USA.
Airplanes, cars, boats just lying about, all unusable due to an oil shortage??...excuse me while I fall off my chair laughing my socks off...:p

[Superpilot]

Now, looking just a little deeper, the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi is conservatively estimated to contain upwards of six-eight times the oil produced from the al Hassa basin since 1938

No chance of democracy in Saudia Arabia then, ever? :rolleyes:

No really, broadly speaking I think 411A has it correct. Though I probably don't agree with his exact numbers. Thanks for that 411A. You've indirectly exposed the phony 'war on/of terror' for what it really is - a massive oil grab!

Now back on topic. If you look at the way the entire world including industry is planning for the future you can plainly see we are not a world that is planning around a scenario where we have no oil. In that is a message that supplies are not about to end anytime soon. Humans are crazy but not that crazy.

[tacpot]

Commercial aviation requires power systems with the very high energy to weight ratios. I can't see any replacement technology coming along to beat the energy efficiency and power of the Jet engine and Jet fuels.

If Diesel/Kerosene ever starts to run short, it would be sensible to reserve this fuel for commerical aviation. Every other form of transport that uses these fuels could use something else. Ships could stretch their use of heavy oils by combining wind and solar power with some heavy oil use. Trains, cars, and probably most leisure flying, could be run on Electricity, only commercial aviation needs diesel/kerosene.

Richard Branson's initiative to certify bio-diesel as a Jet fuel may result in there being another option in case the oil gets too expensive to extract. But I doubt oil will ever be too expensive to extract. And the last I heard was that there was five times more oil in known reserves than would be needed to start a runaway greenhouse effect, if it were all burnt.

Aviation will only be sustainable when the world economy is broadly sustainable. And being sustainable may not be enough. If we don't stop adding to the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it's possible that nothing could be sustained, because nothing could cope with the rate of change cause by massive global warming.

I see a massive carbon sequestration programme being our only hope combined with ongoing emissions management to ensure that all industries, including commercial aviation, have to recover from the atmostphere all the greenhouse gasses they emit.

Luckily plants do a great job to capturing and storing carbon.

[HZ123]

Even worse due to the poor Uk weather this year there is a significant shortage of hops. This could lead to Beer prices of £4.20 a pint. That is not sustainable and is of serious concern.

[411A]

Even worse due to the poor Uk weather this year there is a significant shortage of hops. This could lead to Beer prices of £4.20 a pint. That is not sustainable and is of serious concern.

Not to worry, I'm sure Coors or Budwieser could crank up production and shipping could be found (a Lend-Lease, of sorts) to take up the slack.:}

[saccade]

Despite all the reserves world oil production will probably peak within 8 years. Predictions vary from 2006/2008 (Energy watch), 2010 (ASPO), and a few months ago EIA brought its prediction back from 2030 ish to 2016. With recent articles in Time and wall street journal this topic has now gone mainstream. The main issue is that the Middle East won't be able to push up production to compensate for the depletion of other fields abound the world.

I don't really understand why this topic was removed from the wannabes forum because in my opinion there is a real possibility that oil shortage/oil price explosion is going to hurt aviation on the short term. And that risk is worth considering before spending a fortune on a CPL/IR.

[nick14]

Just for the record, I have shelled out a huge sum to do my training so wether this affects me or not is irrelevent realy. I will have spent the money, shortage or no, but fantastic points guys im learning a lot.
May be a good point to bring up in interview when asked do you have any questions.....
Thnx
Merry christmas

[DaMajor]

The way I look at it is this...

For environmental issues; burning fuel the way we do (not just pilots) cannot be solved by individuals. Big corporations and governments must deal with it.
We can of course all do our part in adding less to it, but as a job, it is a no brainer. As a pilot, I may be adding to the slowly deteriorating health of the world, but look at other professions...some cause immediate death, worsening health and so on.

As a pilot, I feel I'm adding more to the world's economy and bringing the world closer than, say, a lumberjack (just an example, please don't take offence) who is cutting down a tree to only produce maybe a few tables and chairs; and at the end probably contributed to as much demage as I did. OR, bringing food to those who need it via the fastest way instead of letting them rot in a ship that may take a few weeks or months (who incidentally also burn fuel)...

It's cost vs effect here and unless I'm flying purely for the heck of burning fuel, I don't think there is a hugh burden on my conscience as long as I know I am doing more good than bad.


For ethical issues; as long as aeroplanes are flying, and airlines (or any airceft operating company) are hiring pilots, then it is not up to pilots to say they are doing a disservice to the world.
Someone has to do the job and unless there are alternatives, pilots are using the only means there are in this world to move people and goods around the globe in the quickest and most effcient way possible.
How sure are you, if you don't become a pilot, that you will add little to the world's woe and instead help lessen it? Unless you become a hard-core environmentalist (and they are not always in the right, or use ethical solutions), there is just no way to be sure. A wall-street exec uses paper, drives to work, heats his apartment and may drive up the cost of food through other means....

So, do a job you know how to and do it well. That is all anyone could and should strive towards. On your spare time, show the world you care through other means.

Richard Branson pledged almost all of Virgin Airlines' profit for the next 10 years to solving environmental woes instead of stopping his aeroplanes from taking off. He understands that stopping flying is not a solution, it will only add to the woe in other ways.

For economical issues, there is nothing to worry about. The laws of economics will always dictate that only the more efficient methods will survive in the long run. So unless a new and better way can be found, flying aeroplane is it.
I understand that you may worry that one day fuelled-aeroplanes will not be around any more, but surely you will agree that another means of transport will have to replace it?! It will most likely be similar in nature (nuclear cessna 172? or something like that?)...and guess what...they'll require you to have some form of licence to operate it...and the transition will also likely be that pilots can convert to it first...would it then be easier or harder (costlier?) for you to get this new license? You'll be much older, with no experience but plenty of regret...

I guess the questions you have to ask yourself are: do you enjoy flying? Do you want to work as a pilot?

If your answer to both is 'yes'...then anything else is a distraction...we cannot all be hippies (I'd really want to be one, but I'll have to wait till my children are done with university...) and there is no guaranteed way to save the world without causing other problems...just live today the best way you know how...do something you enjoy and is useful to others.

Merry Christmas...

[Kiwiguy]

I have just burned 3 tons of JET A recently, in 1h30 minutes, all by myself, in a plane with 160 seats, all empty.

this was for the base training (6 landings)in airbus.

and it s REQUIRED by the JAR.

then our politicians say to all of us to save fuel and buy cheaper cars, what a bunch of hypocrites!!!



Actually it is easier to reverse global warming by switching private car use to biofules or electric hybrids, than it is to certify a biofuel for aviation able to function at -40C without gelling or clogging fuel lines.

Another thought is if you took all the pax off a short haul 737 flight and gave them cars to drive the same distance they would produce 17 times more carbon emissions by private car for the same trip.

Aircraft actually save the planet.

As for a nuke Cessna, a bio-diesel Cessna is quite feasible and many European light aircraft now have certified diesel alternative engines.

If you really have a conscience about long distance air travel then pressure the EU parliament to bring back the CL-160 airship project with decent funding.

The CL-160 will fly 1,000 passengers 5000nm for a twentieth the fuel of a comparable 747 flight and can use bio-diesel because the airship will not reach FL350 where cold becomes an issue.

No we will not run out of jet fuel, but fossil fuel will; become increasingly unaffordable for private motoring.

[saccade]

Bio-fuels (ethanol, biodiesel etc) are not a solution to prevent oil shortages. The EROEI ratio (energy returned on energy invested ratio) is less than one which means more energy has to be invested than what you get back. This is because of the fact that the efficiency of transferring energy of the sun into a liquid carrier through photosyntheses is very low (0.2-0.3 %).

But a nuke cessna sounds great ! :}