How sustainable is aviation?
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2005
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From: My house
How sustainable is aviation?
Hi guys,
Im sat at my desk at home passing time untill my CPL flying training starts and am having one of those ethical/moral/environmental debates.
I was contemplating just how much fuel is used per day, with all the commercial flights,GA,Cars,trains etc. Must be millions of tonnes.
Reading about all these oil shortages and planned expansion for commercial flight etc just how long can we keep flying? what happens if we run out of oil?
sorry if this is in the wrong forum or is not a sensible question but i think its quite an interesting case for debate.
Id love to hear your thoughts as you will undoubtedly have far great knowledge than I
Nick
Im sat at my desk at home passing time untill my CPL flying training starts and am having one of those ethical/moral/environmental debates.
I was contemplating just how much fuel is used per day, with all the commercial flights,GA,Cars,trains etc. Must be millions of tonnes.
Reading about all these oil shortages and planned expansion for commercial flight etc just how long can we keep flying? what happens if we run out of oil?
sorry if this is in the wrong forum or is not a sensible question but i think its quite an interesting case for debate.
Id love to hear your thoughts as you will undoubtedly have far great knowledge than I
Nick
Joined: Dec 1999
Posts: 1,606
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From: UK
Take a read of the Economist website; aside from the price of oil rising, prompting investment in other fuel sources (both renewable and non-renewable), you can see truthful estimates of CO2 emissions by industry.
Clearly fossil fuel usage is both very important to us and potentially an issue with warming the planet; while we have been used to nothing but oil in our lifetimes, rest assured both that there are other sources that will be burnt in the future, and that oil cannot strictly run out - simply that the little that is left become ever more expensive both to extract and sell, as the laws of economics prevail.
Clearly fossil fuel usage is both very important to us and potentially an issue with warming the planet; while we have been used to nothing but oil in our lifetimes, rest assured both that there are other sources that will be burnt in the future, and that oil cannot strictly run out - simply that the little that is left become ever more expensive both to extract and sell, as the laws of economics prevail.
Joined: Dec 2007
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From: Singapore
My personal opinion is that there will come a day when there will be lots of metal structures lying around (cars, boats, planes, etc) as there will be no fuel to propel them.
True, alternative sources like gasohol are being experimented with, but most of these and other renewable sources are insufficient or not practical to meet the demands of the exponential global population growth.
For example, gasohol is approximately a 9:1 ratio of gasoline:alcohol mix. But alcohol is obtained from fermentation of crops like corn. Corn needs to be grown and harvested. This is apart from the moral question of sacrificing food(corn) for fuel; food which could have been used to feed third-world populations instead of being fuel for aircraft.
Perhaps the best solution to a fuel crises will be nuclear power. Would anyone feel safe in a nuclear-powered cessna?
But I believe we who read this thread today will be long dead before such a day comes.
True, alternative sources like gasohol are being experimented with, but most of these and other renewable sources are insufficient or not practical to meet the demands of the exponential global population growth.
For example, gasohol is approximately a 9:1 ratio of gasoline:alcohol mix. But alcohol is obtained from fermentation of crops like corn. Corn needs to be grown and harvested. This is apart from the moral question of sacrificing food(corn) for fuel; food which could have been used to feed third-world populations instead of being fuel for aircraft.
Perhaps the best solution to a fuel crises will be nuclear power. Would anyone feel safe in a nuclear-powered cessna?
But I believe we who read this thread today will be long dead before such a day comes.
Joined: Sep 2005
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From: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
but with only an estimated 35-40 years of fuel left it is bound to cut back on aviation, just think in 20 years time if there is only 10 years of oil left the price will be huge per barrel, and no doubt tax will be massive meaning air travel could well be out of reach of a lot of people...
i sit here writing this wondering if it wise to embark on a career in an industry which could potenially only give me 20-30 years of earnings....
i sit here writing this wondering if it wise to embark on a career in an industry which could potenially only give me 20-30 years of earnings....
Joined: Nov 2003
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From: Top Draw, Right Hand Side
I'm pretty sure the Oil supply has somewhere around 100 years left???
The thing is, we are all worried about what we're going to do but until the bloody US, China and India stop there hurrendous consumption rates then not much is going to change.
Look on the bright side, if you had said to someone 100 years ago that in the next century man (and woman!) would develop a means of jet propelled flight around the world in contraptions that operated 5 miles above the earth at over 500mph they would have sent you off to the looney bin!
With this in mind im pretty confident that something will be invented to overcome the oil crisis.
Chris
The thing is, we are all worried about what we're going to do but until the bloody US, China and India stop there hurrendous consumption rates then not much is going to change.
Look on the bright side, if you had said to someone 100 years ago that in the next century man (and woman!) would develop a means of jet propelled flight around the world in contraptions that operated 5 miles above the earth at over 500mph they would have sent you off to the looney bin!
With this in mind im pretty confident that something will be invented to overcome the oil crisis.
Chris
Joined: Feb 2006
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From: EU
Dear Nick,
I have just burned 3 tons of JET A recently, in 1h30 minutes, all by myself, in a plane with 160 seats, all empty.
this was for the base training (6 landings)in airbus.
and it s REQUIRED by the JAR.
then our politicians say to all of us to save fuel and buy cheaper cars, what a bunch of hypocrites!!!
I have just burned 3 tons of JET A recently, in 1h30 minutes, all by myself, in a plane with 160 seats, all empty.
this was for the base training (6 landings)in airbus.
and it s REQUIRED by the JAR.
then our politicians say to all of us to save fuel and buy cheaper cars, what a bunch of hypocrites!!!
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 75
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From: UK
Always wondered why it is so quiet around this topic on pprune
Probably a slightly pessimistic view:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZn...eature=related
But nazri is right that there is actually only one problem with the transition to alternative fuels: the enormous amounts required...
Probably a slightly pessimistic view:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZn...eature=related
But nazri is right that there is actually only one problem with the transition to alternative fuels: the enormous amounts required...
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 53
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From: UK
What seems obvious to me is that an alternative to oil must be found, and this alternative is going to appear from somewhere in Asia, most likely from some kind of biological engineering- the reason why it's coming from Asia- much less restrictive 'ethics'
than in Europe.
Something will turn up to change everything in the near future- perhaps an alternative to travel by air, perhaps the end of the world with a new ice age, who knows?
than in Europe.Something will turn up to change everything in the near future- perhaps an alternative to travel by air, perhaps the end of the world with a new ice age, who knows?
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 731
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From: Grrrr
Fuel
There will never come a time when worldwide fuel is exhausted. Yes, there is a finite amount of oil on the planet, but fuels can be made synthetically. This has been the case for more than 60 years. So, why the hype about oil? Because of cost. Oil is cheap and has been cheap historically compared to synthetic fuels, but that does not mean that you can not fabricate the alternatives. Will depletion of oil have an effect on global economy, transportation and the energy sector? Without a doubt, but the world will not stop in any way. Depending on how costs of different fuels in the future develop, it will shape the fuel dependant industries. We can guess all that we want, but the fact of the matter is that only time will tell us where and when the breakthroughs in energy research will come. It is certainly getting more attention as the oil price spirals upwards. So, don't worry so much about the termination of airline transportation. In my view, the pilotless aircraft is a greater threat to this cosy job, but that is a different matter. I have a feeling, though, that I won't be allowed to retire before I hit 70 
Joined: Nov 2004
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From: Buckinghamshire
A search on The Economist website for articles relating to C02 emissions came up with this
http://www.economist.com/world/inter...ory_id=9135283
Hope it helps
Bigwings
http://www.economist.com/world/inter...ory_id=9135283
Hope it helps
Bigwings
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 8,571
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From: Arizona USA
Oil, oil, where is the oil?
Lets look at a few actual facts...and oddly enough, not often reported.
Oil was first found and produced in the alHassa basin in Saudi Arabia in 1938, by Chevron/Texaco...and yes, speaking here only of Saudi Arabia, because they have so much.
Now, looking just a little deeper, the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi is conservatively estimated to contain upwards of six-eight times the oil produced from the al Hassa basin since 1938...in other words, a whole bunch.
Don't like Saudi oil?
Look at Canada.
Huge (and I mean huge) amounts are there, and there is a very big push on now for its production, simply because the oil price now is favorable to make it all possible.
Face it folks, there is no real shortage of crude oil, but there definitely is a shortage of refinery capacity, especially in developed countries, including the USA.
Airplanes, cars, boats just lying about, all unusable due to an oil shortage??...excuse me while I fall off my chair laughing my socks off...
Oil was first found and produced in the alHassa basin in Saudi Arabia in 1938, by Chevron/Texaco...and yes, speaking here only of Saudi Arabia, because they have so much.
Now, looking just a little deeper, the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi is conservatively estimated to contain upwards of six-eight times the oil produced from the al Hassa basin since 1938...in other words, a whole bunch.
Don't like Saudi oil?
Look at Canada.
Huge (and I mean huge) amounts are there, and there is a very big push on now for its production, simply because the oil price now is favorable to make it all possible.
Face it folks, there is no real shortage of crude oil, but there definitely is a shortage of refinery capacity, especially in developed countries, including the USA.
Airplanes, cars, boats just lying about, all unusable due to an oil shortage??...excuse me while I fall off my chair laughing my socks off...
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 1,909
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From: England
Now, looking just a little deeper, the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi is conservatively estimated to contain upwards of six-eight times the oil produced from the al Hassa basin since 1938
No really, broadly speaking I think 411A has it correct. Though I probably don't agree with his exact numbers. Thanks for that 411A. You've indirectly exposed the phony 'war on/of terror' for what it really is - a massive oil grab!
Now back on topic. If you look at the way the entire world including industry is planning for the future you can plainly see we are not a world that is planning around a scenario where we have no oil. In that is a message that supplies are not about to end anytime soon. Humans are crazy but not that crazy.
Last edited by Superpilot; 23rd December 2007 at 20:50.
Joined: Jul 2001
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From: South Yorkshire
Commercial aviation requires power systems with the very high energy to weight ratios. I can't see any replacement technology coming along to beat the energy efficiency and power of the Jet engine and Jet fuels.
If Diesel/Kerosene ever starts to run short, it would be sensible to reserve this fuel for commerical aviation. Every other form of transport that uses these fuels could use something else. Ships could stretch their use of heavy oils by combining wind and solar power with some heavy oil use. Trains, cars, and probably most leisure flying, could be run on Electricity, only commercial aviation needs diesel/kerosene.
Richard Branson's initiative to certify bio-diesel as a Jet fuel may result in there being another option in case the oil gets too expensive to extract. But I doubt oil will ever be too expensive to extract. And the last I heard was that there was five times more oil in known reserves than would be needed to start a runaway greenhouse effect, if it were all burnt.
Aviation will only be sustainable when the world economy is broadly sustainable. And being sustainable may not be enough. If we don't stop adding to the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it's possible that nothing could be sustained, because nothing could cope with the rate of change cause by massive global warming.
I see a massive carbon sequestration programme being our only hope combined with ongoing emissions management to ensure that all industries, including commercial aviation, have to recover from the atmostphere all the greenhouse gasses they emit.
Luckily plants do a great job to capturing and storing carbon.
If Diesel/Kerosene ever starts to run short, it would be sensible to reserve this fuel for commerical aviation. Every other form of transport that uses these fuels could use something else. Ships could stretch their use of heavy oils by combining wind and solar power with some heavy oil use. Trains, cars, and probably most leisure flying, could be run on Electricity, only commercial aviation needs diesel/kerosene.
Richard Branson's initiative to certify bio-diesel as a Jet fuel may result in there being another option in case the oil gets too expensive to extract. But I doubt oil will ever be too expensive to extract. And the last I heard was that there was five times more oil in known reserves than would be needed to start a runaway greenhouse effect, if it were all burnt.
Aviation will only be sustainable when the world economy is broadly sustainable. And being sustainable may not be enough. If we don't stop adding to the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it's possible that nothing could be sustained, because nothing could cope with the rate of change cause by massive global warming.
I see a massive carbon sequestration programme being our only hope combined with ongoing emissions management to ensure that all industries, including commercial aviation, have to recover from the atmostphere all the greenhouse gasses they emit.
Luckily plants do a great job to capturing and storing carbon.
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 8,571
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From: Arizona USA
Even worse due to the poor Uk weather this year there is a significant shortage of hops. This could lead to Beer prices of £4.20 a pint. That is not sustainable and is of serious concern.
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 75
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From: UK
Despite all the reserves world oil production will probably peak within 8 years. Predictions vary from 2006/2008 (Energy watch), 2010 (ASPO), and a few months ago EIA brought its prediction back from 2030 ish to 2016. With recent articles in Time and wall street journal this topic has now gone mainstream. The main issue is that the Middle East won't be able to push up production to compensate for the depletion of other fields abound the world.
I don't really understand why this topic was removed from the wannabes forum because in my opinion there is a real possibility that oil shortage/oil price explosion is going to hurt aviation on the short term. And that risk is worth considering before spending a fortune on a CPL/IR.
I don't really understand why this topic was removed from the wannabes forum because in my opinion there is a real possibility that oil shortage/oil price explosion is going to hurt aviation on the short term. And that risk is worth considering before spending a fortune on a CPL/IR.