Pilot Shortage in 10-15 Years?

[Sam-MAN]

Hello everyone :)

I went to the local college open day on Thursday to have a look at the aviation course they offer. My parents were talking to the tutor about the course etc and he said in 10-15 years there is going to be a lack of pilots. Is this true?

Thanks :)

Sam :ok:

[Felix Saddler]

Go ask mystic Meg?

[No_Speed_Restriction]

how did he/she come up with 10-15 years? if he/she was trying to sell you a course surely the sales pitch would of incorporated the likes of 1-2 years.

[Sam-MAN]

He was just talking about how most people start their training (CTC etc) then he said that there will probably be a shortage in 10-15 years so it would be a good career to get into.

As i said, thats just what he said so please don't bit my head off :ok:

Sam

[No_Speed_Restriction]

no one's biting your head off dude. none of us know what the next 10 years or so will bring; reckon you got a good chance of a job once your training finishes but as you know.....another 9/11 and the $hit hits the fan and youre first to feel it unfortunately.

[Sam-MAN]

:ok: Thanks for the reply.

Life is a big gamble i suppose...

Regards, Sam

[No_Speed_Restriction]

good luck for the future.....for all of us!!!

[Sam-MAN]

EDIT: I think he may of been talking about developing countries like India etc. If he was, that would make a lot more sense.

Sorry for the confusion :O

[finch]

The B797 which is on the drawing boards now may hit the 10 - 15 year shortage thing for six, its a single cockpit aircraft, the 'next big thing' in aviation.
There was a time when no one thought that the engineer could be removed from the cockpit or a twin engined aircraft could cross the Atlantic safely, its progress and its unstoppable.
The computer rules and once the statistics all line up its acceptable.

[VOR_DME]

I personally thought that most planes only had one cockpit ;)

I know what you mean though...sounds interesting. I heard that there was going to be a shortage in something more like 2-3 years...only what i've heard though

VOR_DME

[Sleeve Wing]

Nobody seems to have latched on to the fact that there will be a shortage because nobody will want to do it anymore !!
Airline flying used to be the best job on earth ..... when you were left alone to get on with it.
Now hassle seems to appear from everywhere. whether its appalling traffic getting to the airport, parking when you get there, security (surely a misnomer!), last minute roster changes, numerous unnecessary dictats from on high, to name but a few.
You're not even allowed to fly the aeroplane properly anymore and I understand that the 'new breed' of FOs can be pretty a&sy too. Perhaps I might mention relative salaries as well ?
Or maybe I was just ready to retire !!!!
Sleeve ;)

[dfish]

I've found a number of news articles on this subject, here is one from the CBC.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/11/21/pilot-shortage.html

Dave F.

[A Very Civil Pilot]

I started flight training in 1993. There was talk of a shortgage then. It still hasn't happened, and probably won't ever occur.

[Lemper]

Been thinking quite a bit about this shortage stuff; could not get any reasonable fact nor idea about the subject, until I decided to find a valid definition of "shortage" and reached this one: It all depends on the side of the employment fence one stands. A pilot shortage, for pilots, is when pilots have no problem finding jobs, choosing their employer or place to work or can change employer at wish. An exceedence of pilot is when the pilot cannot manage to get hired, or is stuck with the job with which he is unhappy.
Pilot shortage for employers, is when their ordered equipment get delivered faster than they can train pilots.

[corsair]

I agree with sleevewing. The pilot shortage will come about in part because the job has lost it's attraction to young people who have no burning desire just to fly. As the T&Cs continue to decline. Why would anyone want the job. I for one won't be encouraging my son to become a pilot. That may not stop him but he'll have to find the money to pay for it himself.

he said that there will probably be a shortage in 10-15 years so it would be a good career to get into.

He may be right about the shortage but I no longer believe it's a good career to get into.


I agree with Lempers assessment though.

[Mercenary Pilot]

You hear this one all the time from flight schools. :rolleyes:

[dfish]

Here is a goood article on the subject..........

"Allow me to introduce you to a friend of mine, an aspiring airline pilot whom we'll call Kevin. About two weeks ago Kevin was hired by a US Airways Express affiliate. Later this month he'll begin first-officer training on a highly sophisticated 50-seater. Kevin, who is 29, has a grand total of 300 hours in his logbook. Three hundred. Thinking back to the mid-1980s, to the point when I had 300 hours, the prospect of applying to an airline -- any airline -- was unfathomable."

http://www.salon.com/tech/col/smith/2007/12/07/askthepilot256/

Dave F.

[old,not bold]

The most likely threat is a surplus of pilots while aircraft are grounded due to the fact that there are far too few licensed engineers, and corners simply cannot be cut any more to manage the increasing shortage, as is presently done.

Would you, as pilots, train while working for 5-10 years, get a difficult professional qualification, just possibly quite a lot more difficult than your qualifications even, and then work for £35-£40K or the equivalent - or much less - in EU, USA or anywhere in the world, all-in at all hours of the day and night?

Thought not; that's why no-one wants to be a maintenance engineer or mechanic.

[flyboy55]

I believe that there is a shortage of pilots right now, and it will stay like this for a long time to come.

Think - Why are some airlines dropping the minimum criteria to apply, i remember it used to be around 1500 hours pic time, now iv noticed its dropped down to about 1000ish.

Think - Have you noticed airlines are bringing out Pilot Cadet Programes and also some schollarships ???

Although many of you may disagree, put the cost of training aside, it would be a good career to get in to. If you have the passion, you will succeed.

[amarbhatia]

Well i think there is acute shortage of rated pilots right now. if you have about 1000 hrs on type you cannot be without a job today. In aviation jobs for pilots move in sine curve. :)

[AvEnthusiast]

Regarding India let me tell you that DGCA have issued some kind of decree which has banned hiring foreign pilots to work in india in order to have indians trained. And if the fuel price keeps going up most of the airlines will be urged to shut up and there will be no more shortage.

[powerstall]

... and with the current price of oil and pushing towards $200 (as what the economists say) ... it's a bit shady of what time will tell in the next coming months... :sad:

[flyboy55]

Another major reason why there is a shortage is because of the cost of training. Money doesnt grow on tree's these days. If the shortage gets that bad, which the airlines will try and hide that there is one, you will find schollarships coming out soon, also possibly government funding - a student loan type thing.

[Denti]

It all depends of course. At the moment we have problems getting enough qualified entry level pilots. However that will most probably change very soon.

Anyway, at the moment we have three different sponsorship programs in germany, best one of course is Lufthansa, behind that (financially by a long stretch) is Air Berlin and Hapag Lloyd (or Tuifly as they are now called). Cirrus Aviation/Airlines has its own flight school, but i have no clue about any kind of cadet program. Of course, you have to be able to speak german (fluently) for all of those.

There is of course no guarantee of course about any kind of shortage in europe or even only germany in the next 2 years, never mind 15 years.

[grevinnan]

:O This is my first time here and I´ve started by reading some of the discussion you´ve got going on in here. I have a question. There will always be tuff to get your first job, but that involves all different jobs. My question, do you think it will be more difficult as a woman to get into the aviation arena?
I am starting to study in Agust and I am sooo excited about the study as well as nervous about the future.
What do you reckon? Happy for any inputs,
/S

[Ropey Pilot]

My question, do you think it will be more difficult as a woman to get into the aviation arena?

Been done to death elsewhere - but essentially the answer is no. The main reason there are fewer female pilots are because less females want to do it and therefore fewer train and apply for jobs. You may find one or two misogynistic recruiters in small outfits - but it is akin to being refused a job due to being Geordie/Scottish/Welsh/Cornish or any other irrational prejudice