Pilot Shortage in 10-15 Years?

[Sam-MAN]

Hello everyone

I went to the local college open day on Thursday to have a look at the aviation course they offer. My parents were talking to the tutor about the course etc and he said in 10-15 years there is going to be a lack of pilots. Is this true?

Thanks

Sam

[Felix Saddler]

Go ask mystic Meg?

[No_Speed_Restriction]

how did he/she come up with 10-15 years? if he/she was trying to sell you a course surely the sales pitch would of incorporated the likes of 1-2 years.

[Sam-MAN]

He was just talking about how most people start their training (CTC etc) then he said that there will probably be a shortage in 10-15 years so it would be a good career to get into.

As i said, thats just what he said so please don't bit my head off

Sam

[No_Speed_Restriction]

no one's biting your head off dude. none of us know what the next 10 years or so will bring; reckon you got a good chance of a job once your training finishes but as you know.....another 9/11 and the $hit hits the fan and youre first to feel it unfortunately.

[Sam-MAN]

Thanks for the reply.

Life is a big gamble i suppose...

Regards, Sam

[No_Speed_Restriction]

good luck for the future.....for all of us!!!

[Sam-MAN]

EDIT: I think he may of been talking about developing countries like India etc. If he was, that would make a lot more sense.

Sorry for the confusion

[finch]

The B797 which is on the drawing boards now may hit the 10 - 15 year shortage thing for six, its a single cockpit aircraft, the 'next big thing' in aviation.
There was a time when no one thought that the engineer could be removed from the cockpit or a twin engined aircraft could cross the Atlantic safely, its progress and its unstoppable.
The computer rules and once the statistics all line up its acceptable.

[VOR_DME]

I personally thought that most planes only had one cockpit

I know what you mean though...sounds interesting. I heard that there was going to be a shortage in something more like 2-3 years...only what i've heard though

VOR_DME

[Sleeve Wing]

Nobody seems to have latched on to the fact that there will be a shortage because nobody will want to do it anymore !!
Airline flying used to be the best job on earth ..... when you were left alone to get on with it.
Now hassle seems to appear from everywhere. whether its appalling traffic getting to the airport, parking when you get there, security (surely a misnomer!), last minute roster changes, numerous unnecessary dictats from on high, to name but a few.
You're not even allowed to fly the aeroplane properly anymore and I understand that the 'new breed' of FOs can be pretty a&sy too. Perhaps I might mention relative salaries as well ?
Or maybe I was just ready to retire !!!!
Sleeve

[dfish]

I've found a number of news articles on this subject, here is one from the CBC.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/1...-shortage.html

Dave F.

[A Very Civil Pilot]

I started flight training in 1993. There was talk of a shortgage then. It still hasn't happened, and probably won't ever occur.

[Lemper]

Been thinking quite a bit about this shortage stuff; could not get any reasonable fact nor idea about the subject, until I decided to find a valid definition of "shortage" and reached this one: It all depends on the side of the employment fence one stands. A pilot shortage, for pilots, is when pilots have no problem finding jobs, choosing their employer or place to work or can change employer at wish. An exceedence of pilot is when the pilot cannot manage to get hired, or is stuck with the job with which he is unhappy.
Pilot shortage for employers, is when their ordered equipment get delivered faster than they can train pilots.

[corsair]

I agree with sleevewing. The pilot shortage will come about in part because the job has lost it's attraction to young people who have no burning desire just to fly. As the T&Cs continue to decline. Why would anyone want the job. I for one won't be encouraging my son to become a pilot. That may not stop him but he'll have to find the money to pay for it himself.

he said that there will probably be a shortage in 10-15 years so it would be a good career to get into.

He may be right about the shortage but I no longer believe it's a good career to get into.


I agree with Lempers assessment though.

[Mercenary Pilot]

You hear this one all the time from flight schools.

[dfish]

Here is a goood article on the subject..........

"Allow me to introduce you to a friend of mine, an aspiring airline pilot whom we'll call Kevin. About two weeks ago Kevin was hired by a US Airways Express affiliate. Later this month he'll begin first-officer training on a highly sophisticated 50-seater. Kevin, who is 29, has a grand total of 300 hours in his logbook. Three hundred. Thinking back to the mid-1980s, to the point when I had 300 hours, the prospect of applying to an airline -- any airline -- was unfathomable."

http://www.salon.com/tech/col/smith/...skthepilot256/

Dave F.

[old,not bold]

The most likely threat is a surplus of pilots while aircraft are grounded due to the fact that there are far too few licensed engineers, and corners simply cannot be cut any more to manage the increasing shortage, as is presently done.

Would you, as pilots, train while working for 5-10 years, get a difficult professional qualification, just possibly quite a lot more difficult than your qualifications even, and then work for £35-£40K or the equivalent - or much less - in EU, USA or anywhere in the world, all-in at all hours of the day and night?

Thought not; that's why no-one wants to be a maintenance engineer or mechanic.

[flyboy55]

I believe that there is a shortage of pilots right now, and it will stay like this for a long time to come.

Think - Why are some airlines dropping the minimum criteria to apply, i remember it used to be around 1500 hours pic time, now iv noticed its dropped down to about 1000ish.

Think - Have you noticed airlines are bringing out Pilot Cadet Programes and also some schollarships ???

Although many of you may disagree, put the cost of training aside, it would be a good career to get in to. If you have the passion, you will succeed.

[amarbhatia]

shortage of pilots in 10-15 years

Well i think there is acute shortage of rated pilots right now. if you have about 1000 hrs on type you cannot be without a job today. In aviation jobs for pilots move in sine curve.