Massive QF aircraft orders

[The PM]

Just spotted on smh.com
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/qantas-to-buy-up-to-188-aircraft/2007/11/14/1194766735648.html

Qantas has handed down the biggest aircraft order in aviation history, buying up to 188 narrow body aircraft for short haul flights.

The airline said the funding of the purchases won't affect its investment grade credit rating.

The new aircraft will be used to defend Qantas' minimum 65 per cent share of the Australian domestic market and to expand low cost services to South East Asia.

The plan also involves Jetstar opening new regional aviation bases in both Darwin and Perth over the next two years to serve fast growing Asian markets.

Most of the new aircraft will be Boeing 737-800s, and Airbus A320s.

The order also includes larger A321 aircraft, which will have up to 213 seats, compared with 177 on an A320 in a Jetstar single-class configuration.

The first aircraft to arrive in February will be an A321.

"We expect to take at least 17 of those aircraft to expand Jetstar's opportunities in its fastest growing markets," chief executive Geoff Dixon said.

Qantas will acquire 68 A320/A321 aircraft and has 40 options and purchase rights.

It will also buy 31 B737-800 aircraft, and has 49 options and purchase rights.

"The firm aircraft will be delivered over a six year period, while options secured additional delivery slots through to 2017," Qantas said.

Mr Dixon said: "This decision, together with existing A380 and B787 fleet commitments, secures an order stream for next generation aircraft that will allow the group to meet long term demand growth and replace older aircraft over the next decade.

"The plan provides maximum flexibility to respond to changes in the market and competitive situation.

"In an environment where our customers have more options than ever before, this investment will ensure that Qantas and Jetstar continue to provide customers with superior network reach, choice and product."

He said some of the Airbus aircraft would also be used to supply capacity to the group's Asian associates.

Qantas is preparing to receive its first superjumbo A380 aircraft in August 2008.

Jetstar will later launch the B787 Dreamliner to underpin the expansion of its low cost international services.

"We are confident that the orders we have placed provide the right aircraft, with the right product and right economics to ensure the continued success of Qantas and Jetstar both domestically and internationally," Mr Dixon said.

AAP

[boardpig]

Yeah just read this myself,

Given the worsening situation with crew shortages at the moment, it looks like the bangalorian (can't perform a steep turn or engine out procedure) CPL'ers might be getting an opening here.
Where will Q get the crews to fly them? Or will these be replacing already operational aircraft? I think they may well be "in addition" to the fleet.
Bangalore here we come....

[Going Boeing]

MELBOURNE, 14 November 2007: Qantas today announced that it would acquire up to 188 narrow body aircraft to support the further growth of its two brands, Qantas and Jetstar, in Australia and Asia.

The aircraft will be used to defend a minimum 65 percent Group share of the Australian domestic market and to expand low cost services to South East Asia.

The plan will involve Jetstar opening new regional aviation bases in both Darwin and Perth over the next two years to serve fast growing Asian markets.

Qantas Chief Executive Mr Geoff Dixon said the aircraft would be principally B737-800s, which were Qantas’ main narrowbody aircraft, and A320s, which were the core aircraft in Jetstar’s short haul fleet.

“The order also includes larger A321 aircraft, which will have up to 213 seats compared with 177 on an A320 in a Jetstar single-class configuration,” he said.

“The first aircraft to arrive in February next year will be an A321 and we expect to take at least 17 of those aircraft to expand Jetstar’s opportunities in its fastest growing markets.”

The Group will acquire:
· 68 A320/A321 aircraft, plus 40 options and purchase rights; and
· 31 B737-800 aircraft and 49 options and purchase rights.

The firm aircraft will be delivered over a six year period, while options secured additional delivery slots through to 2017.

Mr Dixon said that the Group had the ability to fund the aircraft without affecting its investment grade credit rating.

“This decision, together with existing A380 and B787 fleet commitments, secures an order stream for next generation aircraft that will allow the Group to meet long term demand growth and replace older
aircraft over the next decade,” Mr Dixon said.

“The plan provides maximum flexibility to respond to changes in the market and competitive situation.
“In an environment where our customers have more options than ever before, this investment will ensure that Qantas and Jetstar continue to provide customers with superior network reach, choice and product.”

Mr Dixon said the B737-800s would all have the latest inflight entertainment technology and would be delivered from early 2009.

“This further investment in the latest aircraft technology will also underpin our efficiency drive by lowering operating costs, while at the same time minimising the Group’s environmental impact as we grow,” he said.

“The B737-800 has a 25 percent lower fuel burn per seat and 30 percent lower maintenance cost compared with older equivalent aircraft.
“The engines for the new aircraft will have improved technology that exceeds all current environmental regulatory standards in relation to both emissions and noise.”

Mr Dixon said the A321 aircraft offered superior seat-kilometre costs and would deliver a further benefit in operational costs for Jetstar.

He said some of the Airbus aircraft would also be used to supply capacity to the Group’s Asian associates.

The order comes as Qantas is preparing to receive its first A380, the flagship of the premium fleet, in August 2008, while Jetstar will subsequently launch the B787 Dreamliner to underpin the expansion of its low cost international services.

“We are confident that the orders we have placed provide the right aircraft, with the right product and right economics to ensure the continued success of Qantas and Jetstar both domestically and internationally,” Mr Dixon said.

Issued by Qantas Corporate Communication (Q3687)
Media inquires: Belinda de Rome – Tel 02 9691 3762

The B738's will replace the B734's (approx 21) in mainline service with the remainder being expansion - good news for mainline crew promotions. By far the biggest expansion is for Jetstar as it appears that all the A320's/A321's are in addition to the existing fleet - some will go to Jetstar Asia/Pacific Airlines (Vietnam). The huge numbers of crews required must be of concern even if most of the F/O positions are filled by graduates of the new QF training courses in conjunction with various tertiary institutions. Having sufficient experienced pilots to upgrade to command status will be the major problem.

[Toluene Diisocyanate]

The huge numbers of crews required must be of concern even if most of the F/O positions are filled by graduates of the new QF training courses in conjunction with various tertiary institutions. Having sufficient experienced pilots to upgrade to command status will be the major problemYes GB. And still QLink pilots are walking in droves - mostly to the opposition. All because of no career path existing in the group. Until now its mostly been FO's ready for upgrades. Now there could be a mass of resignations around January. Over 20 of em and ALL CAPTAINS. Lets see em cover THAT in the roster! These blokes are so pissed off theyll only give the minimum notice too.
The only way to stop the bleeding is to OFFER PROGRESSION AND OFFER IT NOW!!.By the time the morons managers do anything all that'll be left are a few old farts & mostly cadets.


See youse!

[tinpis]

Darwhine eh....harhar,wheres everyone gonna live? Bagot?

[Buster Hyman]

Perhaps they are just buying the production slots as part of some cunning master plan to take over the world?
http://clivedavis.blogs.com/clive/images/dr_evil.jpg
BWAHAHAHA!

[illusion]

Opening Perth and Darwin bases will increase their applications by at least 200 (jet) experienced pilots.

[lowerlobe]

Buster...

Does that mean that Darth is going to clone himself and create Mini Darth.....:yuk:

[The PM]

Buster, would they really be worth ...........ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!?

:}

[Going Boeing]

TD, I totally agree with you. It's a massive waste of experienced pilots who feel a sense of loyalty to Qantas but having been shafted for so long they are left with no choice but to make their very experienced skills available to other airlines. They leave with the support and best wishes of their peers.

[priapism]

Shouldn't this thread be called Massive JETSTAR aircraft order???

[JetRacer]

The plan also involves Jetstar opening new regional aviation bases in both Darwin and Perth over the next two years

Just where is NJS going to get the pilots to replace the ones that jump ship from??:{:D:E

[Chris Higgins]

Guys, c'mon!

Most of your fleet is not exactly new and these aircraft all wont be arriving on the same day. With the price of fuel and the fact that the South East Asian market is ready to grow again, give your leadership some kudos for making a smart business decision. Yeah, the regionals are suffering from a shortage of crew..so what! When I was freshly hired at JFK into the little Jetstream 41 in 1996 we lost 30 captains in 30 days. Most of us upgraded in less than 10 months and the show went on.

I recently flew on QF to Auckland and Sydney, then back to LAX with my three boys. The flights were full and the service was fantastic. The flight attendants were very good with my three year old. I would not even consider flying with any other airline back home. I spoke with several Yanks that were amazed how good it was. They think QF should give lessons over here to the US carriers.

Celebrate the future...it's so bright, you gotta wear shades!

[lambsie]

QF mainline:
+ 31 737-800's
- 21 737-400's
= nett gain of 10 aircraft.
Geoff*:
+ 68 A320/321's
- :hmm:
= oh, I give up.
QF F/O's... don't get too excited. :ugh:

[Henry Winkler]

Just a quick question. How many of the A320 aircraft are going to go to the Asian operations? I thought I read somewhere that Pacific Airlines was to have 12 aircraft. Be interesting to find out.

Also, Jetconnect. Don't they have 3 734's (and getting one more)? so that means mainline only has 18 734's, right?

Good for both airlines I reckon. As for Jetstar, I think we should find out the breakdown of where the aircraft are going before we get too excited.

[I'm Driving]

The order also includes larger A321 aircraft, which will have up to 213 seats, compared with 177 on an A320 in a Jetstar single-class configuration.



How much do you think the JPC will get (as increased pay) for the increased productivity of it's pilots?
I bet I know the answer.

[Toluene Diisocyanate]

How much do you think the JPC will get (as increased pay) for the increased productivity of it's pilots?
I bet I know the answer.

No, no, no, we'll do it for less!!:}:}:yuk:

[blow.n.gasket]

And we will pay for the privilege!:}

[OhForSure]

I'd say net gain for mainline = 6 x 738s.

I believe there's 19 734s left flying with mainline, which would be replaced, plus the 5 or 6 over at JetConnect which leaves a net gain for mainline of about 6 a/c. Surely they'll firm up some options before 2017... Right? Right?

Of the 68 for Jetstar there could well be more bound for Singapore not just the new operation in Vietnam. Either way, sounds like there'll be substantial growth for Jetstar.

Funny this, I just posted a question this morning asking when QF were going to order more narrowbodies! :D

[Going Boeing]

The Boeing twin fleet manager said (some time ago) that plans are to increase the B737 fleet to 65-70 aircraft and the B738 economics are superior to the B734 so he expected the fleet to end up all B738. The original B738 order, late 2001, was for 15 firm plus 60 options (at the significantly discounted price that the post 9/11 market offered). Thus the entire fleet could be standardised at discount prices. I believe that the options have slots on the production line.

At the same time, the Qantas group has been looking at standardising the group's single aisle fleet (up to 200 aircraft) and the media indicate that a decision is imminent. It is quite possible that the entire fleet of B737's could be traded in to Airbus and replaced by A320's. I personally don't think that this will happen - it may be better to wait and be a launch customer for an entirely new and significantly more efficient (and quieter) single aisle aircraft which both manufacturers have been proposing.

I didn't realise how imminent the decision was. If the B737 fleet does increase to 65-70 aircraft then it would be a net increase of 12-17 aircraft. That would allow some promotions but nowhere near what Jetstar will get.

[nomorecatering]

Either way you look at it, its good news.

The latest order for 738's....did QF get them at the same price as they did on the intial batch that were originally AA orders?

Jetstar Asia, Vietnam, are these aircaft that Aussies can fly or do you have to be from singapore or Vietnam national.

As far as domestric market growth is concerned, I dont think we have even scratched the surface of its potential. Every week almost I meet people who in the last 12 months have had their FIRST ever plane ride and they wonder why it took so long to actually travel on a plane. All are planning to do more travel now.

[numbskull]

I hope they have booked their maintenace check slots somewhere. They certainly don't have the capability to maintain them in Australia at the moment and don't look like their working to ramp up their facilities/staff numbers at the present time.

Along with seemingly alienating 80% of QF group pilots, QF have pi$$ed off 95% of engineers.

This sort of growth without experienced people as key stakeholders is asking for trouble.

I guess I'm preaching to the converted here.

[Not Again]

Qantas Mainline currently have 16 737-400s.

5 737-800s arriving next year.
31 800s from 2009.

Thats a net increase of 20 aircraft.

Lets hope it happens!!

[airbusthreetwenty]

New Zealand.

[nig&nog]

Initial reports from within say that jetstar are taking over the qantaslink ops in perth and darwin so not many new crews will be needed in those places only down south will we need the addititon crews

nig not nog

[JetRacer]

nig&nog wrote:

Initial reports from within say that jetstar are taking over the qantaslink ops in perth and darwin

Are you saying that Dixon is going to cancel the contract with NJS, and have Jetstar absorb the QFLink operation?

If that is so and they 'take over' the flight and cabin crew, as well as the airframes, life might start to look brighter again. :E:uhoh:

[mavrik1]

In 5 years the remaining engineers in QF will be retiring or leaving due to such poor conditions, everyone knows widely there is a pilot shortage, but you dont seem to here as much about the engineering situation, that is dire in QF, At least 50% of the young guys that joined QF Since 1999 have already left to other airlines or out the industry there is simply no one to hand down to now. 380 will also will be outsource due no one being actually available on the inside. So for the remaining pilots flying in the qf fleet you may find yourselves signing your own techlogs mean while enjoying the quality of OS heavy Maint.

[wrongwayaround]

. I still have no scope... or understanding of how serious crewing shortages are, and how they will be in the next 1/2 years...

As I'm abroad.. I have no clue. But what it DOES SEEM LIKE to me at the moment that no airline can hack the thought of spending money on training, so they're all starting to FIGHT for the most esperienced people.... Look at one Chinese operator - offering awesome packages for jet drivers...

?? Someone please inform me. :ok: WWA :ok:

[Sunfish]

it's a good thing that Jackson is going because she seems to be capable of "Double Think" - believing two contrary beliefs at the same time...

Ordering 8 billion in new aircraft requires a somewhat rosy outlook for the future and a very great deal of confidence.................................................. ....................yet:

QANTAS chairman Margaret Jackson predicts that the current "purple patch" in the world aviation industry could hit "turbulence" in a year or two.
Speaking on the eve of her retirement after 15 years on the Qantas board, the last eight as chairman, Ms Jackson said her successor, Leigh Clifford, would probably have a year or two before he had to deal with "some speed bumps" in the industry.................................................... ............................................................ ...Jackson also expressed her concerns at the potential impact of federal Labor's industrial relations policy on Qantas, warning that it could reduce flexibility in the airline's 34,000-strong workforce.


Please explain????????

Perhaps the best advice for Qantas watchers is "Don't listen to what they say, look at what they do."

[Buster Hyman]

Does that mean that Darth is going to clone himself and create Mini Darth
I think he's already done that Lobee, but it went horribly wrong & Mini Me ended up with an Irish accent!:E:ouch::suspect:

ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!?

:rolleyes: Throw me a friggin' bone here people! ;)

[727ace]

correct:eek: jetstar will be taking over the Qantaslink routes in time as NJS was and is a fill in operator tilll the big order was finally announced!! As the 717s made a perfect stop gap, so all u NJS crews will have opportunities in the future. Also believe that the A319 has also been looked at for Qlink ops. 4 of the 734's will be converted for AAe operations when they become available but the suitability of this type for the PER-MEL-PER route still a bother for AAe. Toll are currently looking for a better aircraft for the same route with "surprise :)" the B727 x2 as the best cost for Kg at the moment. But good aircraft hard to source!!!. On the freight front the A320 Conversion has been mooted as a future consideration put forward by Jstar to Qf/AAe. Now theres food for thought:ok:

[WynSock]

No mention of any A319's in the order...

a persistent little rumour nonetheless.



Rumour : A piece of information of questionable accuracy, from no known reliable source, usually spread by word of mouth.

Hey! just like the BIG qflink announcement. :ugh:

[Short_Circuit]

mavrik1, there is still ample suitable engineering staff in QF at the moment to do the A380.

Yes they are older, but with decades of experience and can adapt in short time to be very proficient,
as has been done in the past. It is just that management want to drive an almighty wedge into the
engineering structure and break its back all for the sake of a few bucks and a bigger bonus. JHAS will help this happen.

If they do as it has been done over the last 50 years, ie train the older experienced LAMES
initially and let natural on the job training filter through the ranks there will be ample guys to fill the boots of the older ones who will leave in the next 10 years.

Do it now or it will be too late.

Older guys have loyalty to the old QF & Super schemes holding them at QF, younger guys have little or no loyalty to hold them there even once trained.
They, QF management, are so blinded by the tripe their bosses feed them and their lack of A/C background will not lead then to this path. Just the path of extinction.

[mavrik1]

Short Circuit "train the older experienced LAMES initially and let natural on the job training filter through the ranks there will be ample guys to fill the boots of the older ones who will leave in the next 10 years."


Thats half the problem why the young ones arent loyal and leave because you never end up letting young ones filter through to start and gain knowledge on the job. The old boys think they will take thier jobs.

Look at QF MEL, Inter Line Maint, that place is a joke, there's not a bloke in the under 30yrs catergory, young guys are screaming to have a go but they get kept in the hangers, so after 6 to 8 years they tend to leave. Take a look at MEL CX engineering, it is now practically ran by a bunch of ex QF trained youngsters out of the hanger and doing a bloody good job of it, never seen such a learning curve.
They also handle more A/C per head count, run all the station duty's by themselves and have MAS IFE training to carry out that work on transits. Its a pity they have to leave thier own Australian based carrier and go to the Asian opposition just to get the career they well deserve.
The taking under the wing and learn method that was devolped at QF is a thing of the past from where I'm sitting.
Imagine the cost base and performance of QF line Maint if they actively got ame's involved in real line maint at QF(ie, bull**** wing walking), now that would be scary, it would be good to give those old boys some relief aswell, hell the young blood would probably spike up the moral a bit too.
Can only dream.

[Short_Circuit]

So you are suggesting that a young AME would be better suited to be trained to introduce new type / generation A/C / with new EASA type licensing system.
That does not compute!
An AME is far better off learning on the job type experience before his / her first type.
There is more to learn than nuts & bolts.
The old blokes won’t be here forever so training will always be ongoing.
From time to time all training stops, how often has that happened,
only to open in a big hurry when, oops, all the licences are deserting, as they are now.
Its just another cycle.
The cycle always go full circle.
Seen it too many times now.

[Romulus]

Short Circuit "train the older experienced LAMES initially and let natural on the job training filter through the ranks there will be ample guys to fill the boots of the older ones who will leave in the next 10 years."


Thats half the problem why the young ones arent loyal and leave because you never end up letting young ones filter through to start and gain knowledge on the job. The old boys think they will take thier jobs.

Look at QF MEL, Inter Line Maint, that place is a joke, there's not a bloke in the under 30yrs catergory, young guys are screaming to have a go but they get kept in the hangers, so after 6 to 8 years they tend to leave. Take a look at MEL CX engineering, it is now practically ran by a bunch of ex QF trained youngsters out of the hanger and doing a bloody good job of it, never seen such a learning curve.
They also handle more A/C per head count, run all the station duty's by themselves and have MAS IFE training to carry out that work on transits. Its a pity they have to leave thier own Australian based carrier and go to the Asian opposition just to get the career they well deserve.
The taking under the wing and learn method that was devolped at QF is a thing of the past from where I'm sitting.
Imagine the cost base and performance of QF line Maint if they actively got ame's involved in real line maint at QF(ie, bull**** wing walking), now that would be scary, it would be good to give those old boys some relief aswell, hell the young blood would probably spike up the moral a bit too.
Can only dream.

I think I've read a lot of this before. Wonder where?

[Romulus]

So you are suggesting that a young AME would be better suited to be trained to introduce new type / generation A/C / with new EASA type licensing system.
That does not compute!


Why not?

I don't mean everyone on a new tye should be an 18 year old, but why shouldn't there be a mix of young blokes in there as well?



An AME is far better off learning on the job type experience before his / her first type.
There is more to learn than nuts & bolts.


What do you mean here?

Personally I think that a bunch of young blokes keep the old farts (of who I would be one) happy and the old farts feel happy that the craft is being passed to the young blokes.



From time to time all training stops, how often has that happened,
only to open in a big hurry when, oops, all the licences are deserting, as they are now.
Its just another cycle.
The cycle always go full circle.
Seen it too many times now.

Which is why the cycle needs to be broken and get young 'uns in on new types.

[mavrik1]

SC. "If they do as it has been done over the last 50 years, ie train the older experienced LAMES
initially and let natural on the job training filter through the ranks there will be ample guys to fill the boots of the older ones who will leave in the next 10 years."

I know things go in cycles but times are a little different, I'm not saying don't give licences to the older guys and give it to younger ones but the young guys need to be there to pick up the experience to even be able to use a Licence effiecently. There are young guys with Licences but they wouldn't even no what to do with them in a Line Maint enviroment because they were not brought up on that scene. A AME can do everything except sign the book. Wouldn't that be easier on the older guys. There are still not going anywhere.

Most of the A/C types at QF will still out service the careers of the majority of current senior guys at QF. So whats wrong with them seeing the old gens out and passing a new gen to some young blokes who can prove themselves, at least they can grow with that type and be able to service it into the long future without hand me down experience from the older chaps. You all know how much can be learnt from new types going into service.
It is cost affective aswell, when one guy with a huge pay scale leaves another ame comes on line to play keeping costs down and with more people on the line. We still need the brains of the older guys but the young guys will carry them. What a great learning enviroment.
But I'm dreaming again.

[Toolongincruise]

No one to my knowledge has mentioned the possibility that many of the aircraft options could be used for leasing purposes in a separate entity owned by the QF group.

Aircraft such as the 787 and others will not be easy to source quickly, hence having access to these aircraft via a leasing company makes good business sense.
DAE capital has done this and it was talked about in the APA takeover of Qantas.
Time will tell but do you think the Australian market is large enough for all these new aircraft plus options?

[Keg]

Fourth hand information suggests that the nett increase of 737 airframes in mainline will be 20. No mention over what time frame this will be.

[rammel]

I roughly calculated about 20 additional airframes after the B734's have been replaced. But by the time the last of the order is coming through, Jetconnects aircraft will be even older. I can see them being replaced by the earlier QF 738's, roughly 10 or so.

It will still be an increase to mainline, but I think only by about 10 or so. I like to see mainline increasing also, but it looks like Jetstar will have almost the same amount of aircraft the way it is going.

[nick charles]

Ref:
Business`laify
FULLY FRANK
JONN BEVER1DGE
HEARD ANYTHING?
PHONE 9292 2756
FAX: 9292 1634

Dixon ahead of schedule
YOU have to getup early to beat the boy from Wagga Wagga.
Just last week Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon announced
the great coup of buying an extra 99 planes just before the airline's
annual meeting.
Coming on top of an already impressive stack of orders and
options to buy a further 89, the extra spending of at least $6 billion served
a number of purposes at the meeting It blunted a union attack on
Qantas. And how could any union complain about more planes and
more jobs? And it was a terrific distraction from any simmering
shareholder resentment about the Macquarie-led buyout of Qantas
which foundered in May.
It was only later that plans to hire more cabin attendants offshore
leaked out. And there has been no word from Airbus or Boeing
confirming the giant orders.
I believe that's because the orders are yet to be confirmed with cold,
hard cash inthe form of deposits. Once the cash is handed over, the
manufacturers will trumpet the sale. So while the Qantas board and the
manufacturers have shaken hands on deals, they have not progressed
far beyond that. Which is why the delivery timetable Dixon released was fairly
light on detail. The first plane to arrive is an A321 in February next year.
The remaining firm orders would be delivered over six years and the
options delivered through to 2017. What the big orders did indicate -
coming on top of orders for the longhaul giant Airbus A380 Superjumbo
and the high-tech Boeing 787 Dreamliner- is that Qantas will
defend its 65 per cent grasp on the domestic market with an iron fist.
Having a flexible supply of the efficient narrow-bodied jets will
allow Jetstar to compete very aggressively with newcomer Tiger
and the established Virgin Blue. So Dixon is trying to grab the Tiger
by the tail and fling it back to Singapore where he thinks it belongs

Copyright Agency Limited (CAL) licensed copy
Herald Sun
Tuesday 20/11/2007
Page: 35
Section: Business News
Region: Melbourne Circulation: 535,000
Type: Capital City Daily
Size: 200.64 sq.cms.
Published: MTWTFS

[Chris Higgins]

Good news all around! I look forward to flying with my family in the back of the new stuff you're getting.

[Pundit]

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has reported that airlines in the United States have signalled to the market that they plan to reduce or slow capacity growth in 2008. CAPA has stated the recent plans are the direct result of a softening market and excessive competition, with both airlines and analysts agreeing that the future profit outlook is grim and that market consolidation is essential- an attitude which CAPA sees as evidence that capacity needs to be reduced.

US Airlines has announced that it is set to reduce capacity in its primary US operations by 3-4% next year, stating that it “sees no business case to grow domestically.” US Airlines is not alone in working to stay competitive, with Southwest Airlines, Continental Airlines, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines stating that they will cut back or reduce capacity expansion in 2008.

Some of the capacity being taken out of the US market will find its way offshore, into international markets, with British Airways announcing a 5% growth in its strong long-haul market which includes the North Atlantic.

"You will have a recession some time, and the impact on the airline industry will be dramatic… All of that leads to consolidation, I think," said Gary Kelly, CEO, Southwest Airlines.

“We'll be growing international in relatively unabated terms... We're also looking at the consolidation question," said Ed Bastia, President, Delta Air Lines.

Whilst mergers have been a topic of discussion, the actual implementation of a consolidation is quite difficult. To merge, large US airlines first have to receive the approval of reluctant anti-trust authorities and then actually consummate a complex combination of networks, unions, cultures and brands. Such a task is more than challenging and the airlines will more than likely have to wait till consolidation is suggested by another organisation.

CAPA has suggested that such difficulties may soon become a world wide problem, noting the falling levels of consumer confidence in the US and the falling house prices and tighter credit at The Bank of England. The bank recently reduced interest rates by 0.25%, stating, “Conditions in (UK) financial markets have deteriorated and a tightening in the supply of credit to households and business is in train, posing downside risks to the outlook for both output and inflation further ahead.”

[tenretni]

Holly crap! Pundit.

Is it time to pull out the noose?

[AN Flyer]

I roughly calculated about 20 additional airframes after the B734's have been replaced. I can see them being replaced by the earlier QF 738's, roughly 10 or so. It will still be an increase to mainline, but I think only by about 10 or so.

Rammel - while I understand you're referring more to the short-haul order QF have just made for both themselves and J*, has there been consideration of the six (new) A330-203 deliveries mainline are expecting? I believe VH-EBG is on the way, with EBH-EBL scheduled for delivery to Qantas over the next six-nine months (could be wrong). I think the order was for eight in total, with EBE and EBF going to J* Int, and EBG-EBL to QF.

Would be nice to see mainline getting some capacity too, I agree :ok:

[rammel]

I didn't think of those, but most of those cover the aircraft that are "leased to Jetstar". I think when they all the A330-200's arrive there will be one or two more than QF had before Jetstar Int.

With all the aircraft retirements and moving to Jetconnect, I'll revise my figure to 10-15 extra aircraft. I don't think it will be a massive increase in mainline at all. The massive increase will be in Jetstar Int.

[speedbirdhouse]

Quote- "I don't think it will be a massive increase in mainline at all. The massive increase will be in Jetstar Int."

Plans may change when Qantas is finally rid of the elephants scrotum..........

[Going Boeing]

When J* Intl get the first 15 B787's, the 6 A332's that they currently operate will be returned to QF mainline. They will join the 6 new A332's being delivered to mainline. Thus the A330 fleet will have 12 additional hulls over the existing 10 A333's. Eight A332's will be in domestic config and the other four will be international - long range aircraft in domestic config, I really don't understand managements decision making.