Dixon Hits Panic Button on Pilots...

[Ochre Insider]

Forgive me if this issue has been raised or commented upon elsewhere.

On Friday Mr Dixon released a letter which, in the context of recent history, is quite remarkable. After years of taking an approach to pilot relations which appears to indicate he regards us as overpaid, underworked, and deserving of little respect, it seems he has suddenly been made aware of our value.

Amongst other things, Mr Dixon highlights the scope of career advancement opportunities available in the next 5 years, during which time he suggests every FO and SO will have the opportunity to upgrade. Further, he denies ever having plans to create a Jetstar wetlease organisation providing services to Qantas.

The letter smacks of a sudden realisation that the shortage of skilled aviators is so acute that it may dramatically affect the bottom line. Perhaps the growing trickle of departing pilots is starting to cause concern. After all, nothing loses money faster than billions of dollars of brand new aircraft with no crew to fly them.

So, given past history, does Mr Dixon really have the credibility to simply issue a letter painting the picture of a bright and rosy future, and expect people to review their career plans accordingly?

The whole thing is strikingly similar to John Howard suddenly becoming a climate change believer. Expect to see GOD coming to a youtube screen somewhere near you!

Suddenly we are a valuable commodity, so we need to make the most of it. CPI just doesn't cut it in good times, because there is absolutely no chance of the new found love enduring when the next downturn hits...

Do you trust this man?

[Erin Brockovich]

I knew the old prune would come around. It was just a matter of time.

Now show me the money!

[HotDog]

Pass A Frozo,
Yes, climate change is definitely the "flavour of the month", with the Greens and Gareth Evans leading the parade. I'm sick and tired of hearing about it; there seems no doubt that it is a real phenomenon but not one that hasn't occured before on this planet long before industry efluent, motor cars or aeroplanes. As far as I am concerned, it is a pre election political foot ball and will die a natural death after the elections, whoever wins it.

[assasin8]

So, we pilots are obviously being a bit more of a pain in the proverbial than Dixon thought we could be!

I'm sure we'll never reach his standing in the "pain in ye proverbial" stakes, but then who cares... (apart from "aircraft").

Now where's my 7% ???

If it's good enough for the polies, it's certainly the least we could get...
:cool:

[QFinsider]

what a hypocrit!! :=

I would not trust him as far as I could kick him.
All he is looking to do is get a few EBA signed off and get us to turn our back whilst he lines up the next king hit!

[Kubin rock climber]

The original "copy" of the latest flight ops news letter posted on the intranet in early July included a comment from the CP on page 2. This was regarding the recent training slots and the bright outlook for mainline pilots. He said words to the effect; "In the next 5 years most current FO's will have command opportunities and all SO's will be promoted"


CEO then says the same thing in letter to his "collegues" 20/07


Printed copy of flight ops newsletter in crew mailboxes now has these original comments by CP regarding promotion removed . . . . .


It appears someone somewhere for some reason has decided the "good news" should be coming from a higher authority???? Interesting dynamic going on.

[Sonny Hammond]

Commands where though?

It wont be mainline......

[ithinkso]

sydney, domestic, disabled toilet cubicle,

quote: "dixon sux co.."

says it all really

[cunninglinguist]

Good point Sonny
plucking a figure out of my backside, but would'nt that be somewhere in the vicinity of 5-600 commands??
So QF are getting 80-90 A/C in the next 5 years ( not counting a/c that will replace other types ) :confused:
Thats 2 a month for the next 5 years, hope they start arriving soon :hmm:

Jeez, with QFs 180 odd, Jetstars 50 odd, VBs 75 odd and Tigers 20-50 odd.................where the hell are they going to park them :eek:

( we'll worry about where all the paying customers r going to come from later )

[Capt Kremin]

The numbers don't add up. My guess is that the title of this topic is spot on.

Dixon has belatedly been told by a flunky, "errr though you hate their guts, and consider their skills set on a par with CityRail drivers, and that the aircraft fly themselves,.... we have done a lot of research on this and have found out that actually that is not true, and they don't grow on trees and they will leave if they can't get a decent career path!!!"

Dear colleagues....

[DutchRoll]

Pass A Frozo, do you happen to have a John Howard action-man doll on your bedside table? Not that I want it, but I was just wondering!:p

Anyway.......yes, Geoffrey is most likely going to have to eat some humble pie if he wants hundreds more pilots to fly his new planes. I have my doubts as to whether he has a heavily flowering "airline pilot tree" at the back of his office, so he's going to have to at the very least stop any from leaving, and maybe try to stop potential recruits going overseas.

[Mr. Hat]

and virgin haven't even started recruiting (just replacing people that are moving on)

[VH-JJW]

Impressive statement by GD, however, the facts are:

Around 970 Current First Officers.
Around 300 pilots over the age of 54. (allow 1 yr to train and avg 60 retire)
Aircraft orders over next 5 yrs Max 20 A380, 8 A330 (inc Jetstar 6) 4 737's
Aircraft retirements??????

Assuming 9 crews per aircraft (heavy) = 288 commands
plus 300 retirements

Total 588 new commands.

Again this is does not include 5 747 retirements or 737 or 767 retirements.

I suggest another theory:

Manning is looking at TOTAL commands i.e. including consequentials. Given that there are at least 3 moves for each 744 retirement then maybe with consequentials 900 commands could be achieved, however only 300 of those would be INITIAL commands.

Any other way it does not add up.

[Taildragger67]

VH-JJW,

Not questioning your theory, but it appears you've left out the 80 x 787s on order (with options on 35 more)...

[mrpaxing]

with the red tail on it does not touch down in syd till late 2010:sad:
watch tomorrow when the financials will be delivered. you will hear a number of announcements. fleet spin-off, frquent flyer program sold, freight/logistics seperate company and of cours the new LOGO. :cool:

[Taildragger67]

mrpaxing,

Yeah but he's included 6 x A330s for JQ in his calcs. VH-JJW also states that his calcs are over the next five years, which would clearly include 2010.

[VH-JJW]

I may stand corrected, however:

787's do not arrive till 2012.

Dixon excluded them as additional.

[cunninglinguist]

So you reckon QF are going to add 80 ( 15 minimum to Jet* anyway, but lets not talk semantics ) widebody A/C to their Existing fleet with no existing A/C retirements?
They are just going to half again the size of their fleet in 5 years............interesting.

[Sonny Hammond]

Fella's,
These are LIES. Pure and Simple.

Time and time again Dixon has proven he says exactly what he has to say to get his way.
He needs to maintain some decorum on pilot numbers, so to be safe than sorry, what better way to GET HIS WAY, than to dangle a few carrots around.


FACTS:
*Most of the mainline fleet could be retired in the short term. Face it, most of their fleet is old.

*A good number of mainline pilots are nearing retirement as well, and if necessary, GD could make pilots redundant, the provisions for this in the Contract are quite pathetic and would be a tempting solution (whilst also waving a J* 787 contract around and acting like a super generous boss, "what a great guy I am, why do you publicly slander me??? I am offering you another job- there just no helping you selfish unionists....")

*Any new a/c to mainline, are at best replacements, but really the overall fleet numbers will be in negative territory.

*The Beancounters are going to put as many 787's thru J* as possible. They have publicly stated this, and the fact that Dixon is now saying 'we have no intention to paint J* 787's with the new roo paint job basically guarantees that they will.

*GD etc know that there are many qualified capts o/s at the moment that will more than likely be lured back by a half reasonable package to fly these 787's, there by making any remaining QF pilots even less relevant.

Understand his motivation and his tactics are clear.

The question is, are you going to be a victim of them?

[podbreak]

Sonny, a little pessimistic I think...

[Sonny Hammond]

Maybe, but can you discount any of my facts

I was pessimistic for the past 5 years and unfortunately most of my pessimistic theories came to pass.

We'll see I guess.

[Capt Kremin]

JJW, Mainline will start getting the 787's that J* initially receive as 767 replacements, slated for 2010.

[Going Boeing]

Sonny, You are both incorrect and overly pessimistic. The first 15 B787's are -8 versions which initially go to Jetstar Intl but as Jetstar start receiving the -9 version the -8s are progressively transferred to mainline for use on domestic/Tasman routes (replacing some of the older B767's). Jetstar Intl configuration (seating, IFE etc) is virtually identical to mainline domestic so no configuration changes will be required. The Jetstar paintscheme will probably be a white hull to minimise costs when transferring aircraft.
After Jetstar has received 15 B787-9's, then deliveries of the -9 version to mainline will commence. Management have identified a number of new destinations that are business oriented and therefore suited to the mainline product - not Jetstar's product which is aimed at holiday makers and Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) ie low yield markets. The -9's in mainline service will be in two configurations - a 3 class and a 2 class (not counting the premium economy seating as a separate class). With the number of city pairs that management want to fly then it's possible for mainline to end up with 55 B789's and 15 B788's (replacing 29 B767's). That's before you start discussing B787-10's or A350's to replace later B744's from 2012 on (possibly as many as 30).
The A332's currently flown by Jetstar will return to mainline when Jetstar start receiving the B787-8's. Additionally, more A332's will be delivered from Airbus so mainline will end up with 12 A332's in addition to the 10 A333's.
The B743's and some of the B744's will be replaced by 20 A380's.
All up there will be a significant increase in hull numbers resulting in massive amount of promotion training and many more pilots required (minimum of 12-15 pilots every month for 3 years). Careers are finally getting back on track for mainline pilots.

[oneday_soon]

Going Boeing,

do you think there are going to be enough pilots around to fill the 150 odd positions per year? I guess QF is not for everyone, but there looks like there might be lots of opportunity for those who are keen.

[hadagutful]

Bite the Insider where it hurts mate, how the f....k does he know anyway that Howard just found out about climate change. He knows like any other educated individual that climate has always been changing.

Totally irrelevent to his post and yep, very true, Labor has had no lead on this right through Hawke, Bleating Keating and ever since they have been in opposition.

[Going Boeing]

1 Day

I think that QF will really struggle to get enough which is why Dixon has had a "change of heart". I also think that Jetstar will find it even harder to get the numbers that it needs for the extra A320's as well as the B787's. They will end up offering at least mainline rates of pay to attract pilots.

[aircraft]

"Dixon hits panic button"

Err, I think that title is exaggerated and sensationalist. You don't like it when the media are sensationalist so why are you being so?

[Sonny Hammond]

The first 15 B787's are -8 versions which initially go to Jetstar Intl but as Jetstar start receiving the -9 version the -8s are progressively transferred to mainline for use on domestic/Tasman routes (replacing some of the older B767's).
So J*'s old a/c are replacing qf's retirements. Do you believe that mainline pilots will miraculously start flying these machines the next day on superior pay and conditions?
If they do, wow, they get to fly the tasman, again.

The Jetstar paintscheme will probably be a white hull to minimise costs when transferring aircraft Yeh, probably.

Management have identified a number of new destinations that are business oriented and therefore suited to the mainline product - not Jetstar's product which is aimed at holiday makers and Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) ie low yield markets
Like BN-SY.

The A332's currently flown by Jetstar will return to mainline when Jetstar start receiving the B787-8's. Additionally, more A332's will be delivered from Airbus so mainline will end up with 12 A332's in addition to the 10 A333's.

You mean the a/c Borghetti is quoted in the press as saying will go to Vietnam to expand the QANTAS Group's interest up there?

The B743's and some of the B744's will be replaced by 20 A380's

So, I think there is 8 743's and possibly 27 (more realistically 15) 744's will replaced by how many A380's? 20, yep a huge order of 20. Best result there is same fleet number.

All up there will be a significant increase in hull numbers resulting in massive amount of promotion training and many more pilots required (minimum of 12-15 pilots every month for 3 years). Careers are finally getting back on track for mainline pilots

Which fleet exactly are you the manager of?

Wake up mate.

[Sonny Hammond]

In retrospect I may be being a bit harsh. At the end of the day I don't care as it has no impact on me.
I don't want to be a doomsdayer, I do think there will be jobs, but GD is going to have it his way.
Thats just the way I see it.

[Jimothy]

Sonny
QF now only has 4 B743's operating on it's books.

For the last few years it has been all bad - no recruiting, no promotions and the future looking grim. Now finally there is some good news, LOTS of recruiting, lots of training, a positive letter from the CEO ( the first ever?!) and folks are still bleating.

[blueloo]

Ah well, a nice positive letter makes up for it all! We should all just forgive and forget??

[VH-JJW]

You cannot blame QF pilots for being just a 'little' pessimistic. Previous statements by GD such as:

'Jetstar will not expand beyond 23 aircraft' and
'Jetstar will not cannibalise mainline'

or the Chief pilots mantra in 2003/4 of

There will be a great deal of promotions, particularly on the 767

followed by the 2006 comments to the effect of

If a QF pilots 36 year career was spent 12 years as an s/o and 12 as an f/o etc then that would be reasonable, however noone has spent that long to command...............yet.

At the end of the day, despite Going Boeing's comments (which do not realate to the Dixon letter anyway as they refer to the 787), I for one would like to know how approx 1000 initial commands will be issued in the next 5 years.

Thats 200 INITIAL commands a year. assuming only 1 consequential up the line then that is
400 Total command training experiences PER YEAR.
PLUS s/o's to F/O's ateven the same rate is another 400 upgrades, plus 500 intake s/o's over 3 years (166 per annum)

TOTAL = 966 pilots undergoing training PER YEAR for the next 5 Years.

(as far as I can see the above is conservative)

That would make even Emirates flinch.

This from an airline which has upgraded at most 150 per annum for the last 3 years.

So has anyone else in Qantas not noticed the 640% increase in training resources?

Where are all the FSO's looking for hundreds of Check and Training pilots?

Where are the new simulator instructors?

Where are the new simulators?

Where are the aircraft orders to justify this?

Hey - where are all the pilots coming from??????

I would say to Mr Dixon and Mr Manning - If you want us to consider staying then justify your statements - Money talks, bullcrap walks.

At the end of the day I can see a lot of dissappointed and dissolusioned pilots standing around without LH or Window seats in 5 years time. I can also see two managers who will be long gone, but still counting bonus money earnt off the back of YOUR retention.

[Sonny Hammond]

Between JJW's view on the operational aspect of all this and my objective view of the facts, a case too hard to ignore has been made clearly showing that this is yet just another attempt to pacify the troops whilst they are being circled.

[Capt Kremin]

AIPA are currently negotiating EBA 8. I guess the proof of Dixon's statement will be his willingness to sign off on that EBA if it contains similiar clauses regarding the 787 that EBA 7 had about the A380.

to wit: 787's operated for and by Qantas, will be operated under mainline terms and conditions.

AIPA members should be prepared to not accept anything less.

[mrpaxing]

is in the details:
Mr Dixon said the Qantas Group would take delivery of its first B787-8 aircraft in July next year.
"The first 15 aircraft will be used by Jetstar, accelerating the growth of its international operations."
"In line with the company`s two brand philosophy, subsequent deliveries will be allocated between Qantas and Jetstar on the basis of the best returns for the Group."
talk about contradiction from GD letter to pilots.:yuk::yuk::yuk:

[podbreak]

Jimothy - That is why these forums are a far cry from an accurate representation of the industry climate.

Most people who aren't jaded or have issues with certain aspects (i.e. new logo etc) won't usually write about it. However, as soon as people become frustrated this forum offers the perfect medium to vent. I think its wise for new pilots to not get absorbed into the pprune, as it can be a severly skewed representation of reality.

[What The]

Further to the thread on best ATC, we should start a who has the most miserable pilots.

My vote, going by what is written here, QF by a country mile.

If it is so bloody bad, why don't you piss off! Plenty of jobs going around. Take your superior skills and knowledge and go for it, but for farks sake stop bloody whinging!

[SkyScanner]

If it is so bloody bad, why don't you piss off! Plenty of jobs going around. Take your superior skills and knowledge and go for it, but for farks sake stop bloody whinging!

They are leaving! Why do you think the company is releasing all this information!!

[What The]

Tell me you're not serious.

How many have left?

[hotnhigh]

Lets see 55 new commands for the year in mainline. (excluding sideways movement.)
Startling revelations.
VB 26 upgrades in the next two months..........

[VH-JJW]

What the - me for one.

As I said earlier, money talks, bullcrap walks.

Having said that I am now unsure as to where I stand having walked......:confused: