ABERDEEN

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

I suspect Aberdeen could suffer a 10% fall or greater in a/c movements due to the downturn.

January's figures will be very interesting and could be a benchmark for the year ahead

[exlatccatsa]

I suspect that ABZ will loose a similar amount of helicopter traffic due to the more restictive, sea state 6 and triggered lightning rules being applied this year. Operators will combine more flights in order to catch up. I don't believe the Scatsta ESB flights have caught up since Christmas.

[Heathrow Harry]

BBC News - Carbuncle Awards: Aberdeen named Scotland's most dismal town (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-31095837)

Carbuncle Awards: Aberdeen named Scotland's most dismal town



I think that's two years running............

[Richard Taylor]

Wishful thinking Harry... it's not 2yrs in a row... ;)

[Heathrow Harry]

you're correct

Past winners:-

2000 The Lanarkshire town of Airdrie (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airdrie,_North_Lanarkshire) The UGC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UGC_%28cinema_operator%29), now Cineworld (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineworld), cinema in Glasgow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow) was awarded worst building.[5] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbuncle_Awards#cite_note-5)

2001


The town centre of the new town (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_towns_in_the_United_Kingdom) of Cumbernauld (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbernauld) won the Carbuncle Award in 2001. The worst building Carbuncle went to Glasgow's maternity hospital at the Royal Infirmary (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Royal_Infirmary).
2005

Cumbernauld (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbernauld) was the winner of the Carbuncle Awards 2005, having earned the accolade for the second time.
2007

The town of Coatbridge (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coatbridge) in Lanarkshire was the winner of the Carbuncle Awards 2007.[9] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbuncle_Awards#cite_note-9)[10] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbuncle_Awards#cite_note-10)[11] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbuncle_Awards#cite_note-11)
2009

The town of Glenrothes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes) in Fife was the winner of the Carbuncle Awards 2009.
2010

The official winner of the Carbuncle Awards 2010 was John o' Groats, however, after learning no one wanted to pick up the award on the town's behalf, residents of the town of Denny (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denny,_Falkirk) in Falkirk requested the trophy instead.

2011 The town of Linwood (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linwood,_Renfrewshire), Renfrewshire was the winner of the Carbuncle Awards


2013

The town of New Cumnock (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Cumnock) in Ayrshire was the winner of the Carbuncle Awards 2013


2014 Aberdeen
EDINBURGH Airport’s new eastern terminal extension has netted a top award - voted Scotland’s worst building.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

5% reduction in movements for January, is this the future?

[CabinCrewe]

Id say so, for the forseeable.

[OntimeexceptACARS]

Think wx was a factor in January numbers, remember ABZ had the biggest growth of any of the big 3 airports in Scotland in 2014.

Having said that, the oil industry looks like going into lockdown this year. IMHO I think pax numbers will decline this year, not by too much I hope.

[Richard Taylor]

Interesting post 'from another place'...

"The January 2015 passenger data for Aberdeen, Scotland indicate the impact lower oil prices have on the demand for air travel:

- ABERDEEN - AMSTERDAM 20.858 -2%
- ABERDEEN - COPENHAGEN 2952 -22%
- ABERDEEN - DUBLIN 2776 -28%
- ABERDEEN - FRANKFURT MAIN 7907 -10%
- ABERDEEN - PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE) 7956 +4%
- ABERDEEN - GATWICK 9502 -14%
- ABERDEEN - HEATHROW 53513 +4%
- ABERDEEN - LONDON CITY 4428 -24%
- ABERDEEN - LUTON 4224 -5%
- ABERDEEN - NORWICH 3936 -12%
- ABERDEEN - STORNOWAY 431 -10%
- ABERDEEN - SUMBURGH 8933 -26%"

Interesting LHR & CDG UP... bet that won't last.

One horse town... one horse airport.

[CaptainDoony]

Strange set of figures. Likes of Scatsta & the Rigs both up in numbers.

All of Easterns routes posted declines. I just booked SOU-ABZ with them for £29 which is unheard of!! :):sad:

DUB, FRA, LGW, LCY all had marked capacity or frequency reductions + plenty wx issues in AMS.

GVA avg. load was 117.

Glad to see the additional TFS capacity being absorbed with 95% loads.

Pax up 2,000 despite all the red ink. Summer ain't looking brilliant though with MAN, BHX & LHR taking notable hits in frequency. LCY will also remain on the Saab 2000 now so presumably a 4 aircraft base it won't be now?

Interesting/worrying times ahead.

[CaptainDoony]

Just got an email from BMI Regional advising that my flight in April has been cancelled due to ABZ-MAN ceasing as of 27/3.

Great.

[tangoecho]

Me too!:ugh:

[Richard Taylor]

Hmm... I could see bmi pulling out of ABZ altogether. Not much left route-wise once MAN goes... NWI & EBJ, both oil-related. They are supposed to be increasing BRS to thrice daily on weekdays... but will they? BRS is their main focus now.

[MerchantVenturer]

The bmi regional timetable between ABZ and BRS seems to have been amended again. From the end of April it will be:

Mondays and Tuesdays
Dep ABZ 0640, arr BRS 0800 - dep BRS 0825, arr ABZ 0950
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays
Dep ABZ 0640, arr BRS 0800 - dep BRS 0825, arr ABZ 0950
Dep ABZ 1430, arr BRS 1550 - dep BRS 1620, arr ABZ 1745
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Saturdays
No service

Sundays
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

From this it seems that on Mondays and Tuesdays one rotation will be operated by an ABZ-based aircraft, and on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays two rotations will be operated by an ABZ-based aircraft.

[CaptainDoony]

February down by 0.9% and almost laughably blamed on WX at other airports. The busiest route, LHR, didn't have a single cancellation in the month.

Oil Rigs still up slightly though.

[Heathrow Harry]

if they go back to 2 on/2 off that won't last

[BAladdy]

The bmi regional timetable between ABZ and BRS seems to have been amended again. From the end of April it will be:

Mondays and Tuesdays
Dep ABZ 0640, arr BRS 0800 - dep BRS 0825, arr ABZ 0950
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays
Dep ABZ 0640, arr BRS 0800 - dep BRS 0825, arr ABZ 0950
Dep ABZ 1430, arr BRS 1550 - dep BRS 1620, arr ABZ 1745
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Saturdays
No service

Sundays
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

From this it seems that on Mondays and Tuesdays one rotation will be operated by an ABZ-based aircraft, and on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays two rotations will be operated by an ABZ-based aircraft.

BM have just made further schedule changes to this service. With changes to the planned frequency. The new schedule is shown below:

Mondays
Dep BRS 0700, arr ABZ 0825 - dep ABZ 0855, arr BRS 1015
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Tuesday to Friday
Dep ABZ 0640, arr BRS 0800 - dep BRS 0825, arr ABZ 0950
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

Saturdays
No service

Sundays
Dep BRS 1740, arr ABZ 1905 - dep ABZ 1930, arr BRS 2050

[CaptainDoony]

Reported on the Flybe thread that the ABZ-LBA-SOU-JER shuttle will cease at the end of the winter season.

So much for their growth at ABZ. Pretty sure this would have been a Victim regardless of current oil industry health.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Doesn't look good for Aberdeens future, pax dropping, movements dropping, routes getting cancelled and frequencies cut back,

So with flybe dropping routes, bmi to drop manchester and Virgin set to finish in a few months what does the future hold for the airport especially given the oil industry seems to be in quite a large decline?

[kcockayne]

Well, I remember the days when it was closed on Sundays !

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Does today's events prove Aberdeen is still in the 20th century while every other airport has moved on, invested and doesn't have the huge disruption caused today

[Inverurie Lane]

Not really. If you're referring to the ILS system, even with a CAT3, a majority of the aircraft that had to div out last night wouldn't have got in anyway. Yes, the Airbuses and Boeings would have, not sure about E145s & 170s, but the helis, JS41s, Q4s, Saabs - probably not.
So it's not that the airport needs to 'move on', the aircraft that serve it need to. Why would the airport 'invest' in something that is needed so infrequently, and when it is, can only be used by half their customers?
You could say the same applies in regard to the runway extension.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Flybe shuttles finishes Saturday 28th march, bmi manchester finish end of month and Virgin sept leaving 2000 daily seats being taken out and at the moment not replaced, decline full throttle?

[Venkman]

Flybe shuttles finishes Saturday 28th march, bmi manchester finish end of month and Virgin sept leaving 2000 daily seats being taken out and at the moment not replaced, decline full throttle?

All routes which still exist with other carriers? Extra seats just diluting the load factors?

[CaptainDoony]

Been ages since the last post on this thread...

I see ABZ announced a "new" destination today - LPA - starting S16.

You're probably thinking you've heard that before and you're right; was originally scheduled to start this winter on 02/11 but that has now been yanked and replaced with this "good" news instead. :ugh:

On a different note, Wizz have loaded ABZ-GDN for W15. Lets see if it stays. Or starts. :}

GVA will also be returning for a second season. Average Load has been in the 120's.

[TDK mk2]

Regarding the ILS, Cat 2/3 would allow aircraft such as the Q400, SAAB 2000 and Embraer 145 to make approaches in RVRs down to 300m instead of the 550m now. Most larger types could obviously auto land at lower RVRs than 300m.

For an Airport that suffers from the Haar so often the lack of a CAT2/3 ILS makes it somewhat of a joke in my book, and not a good one. But then look at the terminal, which is more of an apology for a terminal. I'm sure the management are planning some trivial show piece, such as the new front door which took months to build but hey, why try harder?

[Bjarte]

Possibly a new oil-related route? Den Helder Airport (DHR, Netherlands) appears to be at an advanced stage of negotiations. According to their website. Den Helder Airport ready for new markets (http://www.denhelderairport.nl/news/news/den-helder-airport-ready-for-new-markets)

Perhaps in combination with Groningen (GRQ)?

[Richard Taylor]

This was in papers recently...

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/556248/private-aircraft-firm-expands-at-aberdeen-airport-to-keep-up-with-demand/

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/554939/aberdeen-airport-get-new-terminal-surge-demand-private-jets/

I recall Gama were wanting to build their own hangarage looks like this has expanded beyond just the ambulance Kingairs into proposing a Jet Ctre for exec planes.

[Richard Taylor]

Also the other story reported recently:

Oil giant pulls out of flights from Aberdeen to Scatsta - Local / News / Evening Express (http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/local/oil-giant-pulls-out-of-flights-from-aberdeen-to-scatsta-1.864290)

What does this mean for fixed wing flights with the T3 S2000s? Has shades of Shell in the 80s when they flew Chinooks ABZ - E Shetland basin... Viscount flights t/f LSI at the time dropped right back whilst the direct heli flights provided the bulk of the links.

There are others in the IAC though - will they continue with flights, or do what Shell propose to do later this year (ie. leading to the disbandment of the IAC fixed wing services)?

[throw a dyce]

TDK mk2.
The problem with Cat 2/3 at ABZ is not the ILS equipment,but the taxiway,lighting,and terrain is not being suitable.I have seen a 737 land many years ago on autoland(weather was good and pilot said his intentions). However without the improvements you can't certify it suitable,and it would take a lot of money to fix.

[kcockayne]

You don't know you are alive!
When I was there we only had ILS on 35 !

[kcockayne]

I should have said, ILS on 17. It was SRA terminating at 2nm on 35 !

[throw a dyce]

Aye get the edge of the blip on the centreline,otherwise pointing at Asda Dyce.:):)

[ABZ FLYER]

Things have been very quiet, in terms of development or new routes, following the Routes Europe conference back in April. With Aberdeen hosting the event I was half expecting some new routes to be announced at the event. Anyone know of any potential airlines or routes they were trying to secure?

With the good performance on the Geneva winter route, wonder how long it will be before they consider the same with summer sun destinations (Alicante & Malaga spring to mind). Surely Summer 2016 has to be a bit more exciting than the offering this summer.

That brings me on to stands and the terminal, nothing seems to be happening on the expansion to the terminal or construction of Stand 0 or new international stands, something no only is the airport lacking at peak times but was planned years back. We knew the last owners gave up on Aberdeen a long time ago and their investment was purely to fund Heathrow, but have the new owners similar intentions. They have owned the airport nearly 6 months and theres been nothibg dramatic announced in terms of future development.

[turbroprop]

Next development might be new passport control for flights to the UK:p

[Heathrow Harry]

"They have owned the airport nearly 6 months and theres been nothibg dramatic announced in terms of future development."

oil price collapse - no one will invest until they know when it will be back to normal

[kcockayne]

HH

Regrettably, you are correct. Oil prices are down therefore no expansion of routes. Oil prices (& activity in the North Sea) may increase shortly, but the "Boom Days" are over for good for Aberdeen, I'm afraid.
Back to the "Good Old Days" when the airport was closed on a Sunday & the only routes were to Glasgow, Edinburgh, Wick & Kirkwall !

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Huge growth reported at both central belt airports, over 15% for Glasgow which is mega but the 3rd month in a row of decreases for Aberdeen and the biggest drop thus far.

Perhaps more proof that the decline in oil is only just now only taking affect which does not bode well for the future especially with more route closures in the next few months to take affect.

A bit of a worry for a city and an airport so Overly reliant on only one industry an when that industry goes into decline it's no surprise that Aberdeen should of had a more diverse economy especially nearly 50 years after oil exploration.

Whoops!

[MEZEGPD]

News just in... An Eastern Airways J41 has been pushed too far back from stand 8 causing it be stuck in the grass. The pushback tug isn't powerful enough to remove it. Fire engines are in attendance.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Surely BP's move to increase time offshore will result in less helicopter flights and less passenger movements as well. Something to aid the continuing reduction in traffic

[Heathrow Harry]

won't be just BP - everyone wil go that way - cutting the rotations is a major and instant saving on the OPEX for these platforms

with a number of fields producing at costs which are higher than the oil price it is depserately needed

[Richard Taylor]

Aberdeen Airport traffic 'hit by oil sector cuts' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-33093208)

And you can expect more of that for the forseeable. 5m pax is a pipedream. Only one way this city and airport are going... into reverse.

[VickersVicount]

...theres optimism for you. These things are swings and roundabouts. Before you know it there will be an oil boom and the percentages will start to reverse

[nighthawk117]

Unfortunately, low oil prices are here to stay. Time to adapt, rather than hoping for a boom to change fortunes.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Perhaps the airport should of focused on more charter/ holiday flights while times were good

[CabinCrewe]

most correspondants who know this field are saying low oil prices for further 1-2 years, so far from indefinite and may be superceded by the next world turmoil incident.

[Heathrow Harry]

correct CC - oil prices will come back

the real problem is the small size of new discoveries (10mm barrels is now the norm) and the unbelievable costs for both production and new fields- it seems impossible to bring anything onstream for less than $ 1.5 billion these days

I can see a gradual decline TBH - people like Shell & BP will move their main operations elswhere and onlythe small guys will be left

[Richard Taylor]

Not much cheer about the place just now, but to note Wizz start the Gdansk flights tomorrow.

My fear is they go the same way as Riga has done, but we'll see.

[Heathrow Harry]

Shirley not!

All those Aberdonians going to Poland to work as brickies, plumbers, catering & nursing staff will keep it in the $$$$$

[compton3bravo]

And please don´t call be Shirley - sorry couldn´t resist it!

[Howto communicate]

Had a flight SW of Dyce today. Back and forth, back and forth, 2-4000ft(?) Wondered why. Any info on the twin it was gratefully received. Approx 1600 to 1700 today.

Thanks in advance.

[topoverhaul]

Islander surveying the AWPR

[Howto communicate]

Thank you topoverhaul.

Blinking noisy old stylee one. Next they'll be getting Trislanders in!

Given the noise factor of these models, how totally unsuitable an aircraft type for this type of aerial work, at lower alts, IMO.

The Hampshire Police used to run one of these (that actual airframe??), and actively encouraged noise complaints against the noise of it's own ops in order to help justify the cost of funding a turbo prop version. Much quieter!

http://www.fleetairarmarchive.net/daedalus/Police.html

[BTC8183]

Heared this too, but it didn't sound too offensive. Unless they are going to survey every day, which i doubt, it did make change to the usual mix of 225/92.
Compare to a DA42 , the BN2 is a bit elderly, but there again a DC3 and a pair of big radials would have been a real treat,especially at low level.
Given the reduced production of Avgas, the move to Jet A fueled diesels and the gradual retirement of old airframes, time is not on the side of that old girl.

[Heathrow Harry]

you want something slow and low for detailed survey work as well............

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

In regards to the decline at Aberdeen compared to growth last year it's worth noting that when Virgin stops in September there are currently no plans for BA to add anymore flights, even though themselves have cut flights to Heathrow from 11 a day to 8. A bit like flybe have cut flights compared to last year on Manchester and Birmingham even though bmi pulled out of the Manchester route.

In last 12 months and up until September this year following routes have received cut backs in flights or capacity or stopped completely:

Heathrow
Birmingham
Manchester
Frankfurt
London City
Oslo
Stavanger
Belfast
Leeds Bradford
Jersey
Southampton
Riga
Kristinsund
Bergen
Sumburgh
Norwich
Dublin


Will be of note to see how long Gdask lasts

[CaptainDoony]

BA have never had 11x daily flights to LHR. The most I know of is 10x on Fridays only last winter with 4 of them being middle of the day slot sitters leaving in a 4 hour period between 11 & 3pm. BA are currently running about 6000 extra seats per month currently on the route.

ABZ-MAN will return to 6x daily as of the start of W15 schedule. BHX looks to be static on last year.

Half of the routes above haven't even had any noteworthy changes to them if it all.

GDN seems to have got off to a strong start; assuming their seat maps don't tell fibs; I don't think there's been a flight in or out yet with less than 165 pax booked. If RIX is ever resurrected then I think Wizz would be a carrier much better equipped than Air Baltic.

Finally, even with the decline in fortunes, ABZ is far from a ghost town for now as evidenced by the following picture from this morning...

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJNqQ62WUAAtu7q.jpg:large

Yes, that is the front door!! :}

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Glasgow and Edinburgh airports report record June - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-33508444)


Enough said, Central belt airports are going from strength to strength and Aberdeens decline continues.

As per last picture that's probably because the machines are broken again!!!

[CaptainDoony]

As per the CAA June provisional stats:

Gdansk - 1,366 - 171pax - Avg Load 95% (4% above network average)

Cracker of a month for a brand new route!

And by Comparison for Riga last year; a vaguely similar route:

Riga - 2,856 - 79pax - Avg Load 66%

[CabinCrewe]

Thats great news for GDN. Wizz are often quite quick to add capacity and routes so maybe more to come. Puts paid to theories elsewhere that new routes have to have ages to build up half decent load factors.

[Richard Taylor]

Good start for Wizz & GDN.

Looks like the business traffic will be declining for some considerable time with the depressed oil price looking more & more like the new norm.

Therefore ABZ should be concentrating its efforts on airlines like Wizz & routes like GDN - ie. 'proper' low cost. A whole new way of thinking for ABZ, perhaps.

After all, there will be a lot of people with spare time on their hands so proper lo-co routes could be the new way ahead!!!

RIX would be a nice one to have back on such a basis - airBaltic weren't looking for that sort of traffic when they flew it.

[Heathrow Harry]

Oil price still heading down and the forward price is around $65 a bbl for DECEMBER 2016!!!!!

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Wood group and ensco are the latest companies to make large redundancies added to bristow helicopters and serco in regards to scatsta. On top of the BP and now shell roster changes are sure to further dampen any growth and if anything add to the continued downward spiral the region finds itself in,

Obviously oil prices are again continuing to decline adding further pressure to companies profit margins

[Richard Taylor]

Fact is ABA there isn't a single company out there, big & small, on & offshore, that isn't making or preparing to make significant job cuts.

Whilst the rest of the UK enjoys growth, the only growth we'll 'enjoy' for the forseeable will be in unemployment, in liquidations, in debts.

And nobody in any sort of 'power' in Aberdeen over the years has had the foresight to plan for 'what happens next'. The eggs were all laid in to the basket marked 'oil'. Then it was fingers crossed the price of said commodity didn't fall. Well it did - big time. Proof those analysts that forecast $150-200 oil didn't have a clue.

With oversupply & Iran increasing factors, expect the oil price to stay low for some time to come. Enough time maybe, to signal the end of the N.Sea oil industry - & with it, Aiberdein. Welcome back to the real world.

Forget 1986 - this one will be even worse, coming as it does near the end of the N.Sea life.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Richard, I fear this is only the beginning of a massive downturn for Aberdeen and UK oil and gas

Oil price continues to fall and will do as supply is increasing at a greater rate than demand.

So first it was Bristow with 130 employees to be made redundant, now CHC are making 50 redundant from Aberdeen, mainly pilots and engineers.

It's just the beginning......

[Heathrow Harry]

always said that the day they finished the By-pass would mark the end of the UK N Sea

and it was only a joke for 40 years........................ not so funny now

[CaptainDoony]

I see the ABZ Social Media Pages have been posting the last couple of days about a big announcement due on Wednesday. Been hinting accompanied by pics of suitcases in front of baggage belt and security entrance.

Could this be the long overdue return of some proper scheduled leisure flights or will it be in true ABZ fashion the addition of a pie stand or perhaps a new perfume range at duty free?! :}

[CabinCrewe]

Thats exciting. Normally it would be the airline who would make the announcement rather than the airport ? Would be surprised to see major infrastructure development given ABZ current climate. Maybe a sell off to Infratil ;)

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Perhaps the big announcement is another drop in figures,

[diginagain]

Been hinting accompanied by pics of suitcases in front of baggage belt and security entrance.New service between Aberdeen and Calais/Dunkerque. Got to find a use for all that new capacity that surrounds the airfield.

[Richard Taylor]

Donald Trump has bought the airfield for a new golf course.

[CabinCrewe]

.... but wont progress development until the little wind turbine on top of Dyce Lidl gets removed.

[Richard Taylor]

Apparently may be a slight delay in the 'big announcement' - one or two last min.dom things to sort out. But we are advised to watch this space.

I'll have a punt at Jet2 coming with a clapped out B733. :}

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Another month of huge growth for central belt and decline for Aberdeen,

Just shows what happens when right airlines are encouraged at airports eg easyjet Ryanair etc,

Think Aberdeen missed a trick during good times and is now only going to go one way

[CaptainDoony]

Well if this announcement is what I'm expecting and that is a based LCC then this would be first step to rectifying issues that have perhaps not warranted the motivation to sort out in the past.

Now the bread and butter market that has propped up the airport for so along is flatlining - the new owners must be panicking slightly that their investment is in danger of being pissed up the wall?

Jet2/EZY will be getting very good deals offered to them right now in any discussions.

Surely.

[Callum Johnstone]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Norwegian Airlines adding some flights to ABZ. A few Scandinavian routes, plus maybe something along the lines of Palma, Malaga, Tenerife etc. Stranger things have happened.

[CabinCrewe]

... I would discount it. Filling 183 seats daily on 738's with DY ex ABZ. Mmm, cant see it myself.

[xraydice]

"Richard Taylor
Apparently may be a slight delay in the 'big announcement' - one or two last min.dom things to sort out. But we are advised to watch this space. "

Oh the new terminal announcement.... yep the gazebo blew away yesterday, new one on its way :-) Just kidding. maybe


No quote facility again :bored:

[5711N0205W]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Norwegian Airlines adding some flights to ABZ. A few Scandinavian routes, plus maybe something along the lines of Palma, Malaga, Tenerife etc. Stranger things have happened.

and most people would probably still prefer to go to EDI or GLA for their holiday flights for all the well known reasons;

- Airport access/egress and parking challenges
- Boarding gate design nightmare
- Immigration arrival nightmare
- Baggage belt (singular)

[5711N0205W]

Passing through security the other week, got picked for a secondary scan/search.

ABZ now has one of these scanner thingies, you know feet on the spot, arms up, scanner goes round and highlights any surgical implants you may have..

No not in ABZ, feet on the spot then you turn around.... not seen this anywhere else to date, on the cheap, again!

[Richard Taylor]

Whilst we wait for the 'big announcement', was quite interesting to read about the Trident 3 that aquaplaned off the runway in 1978.

Was in the local press the other day as the co-p had lost his press cuttings of the time.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/pilot-relives-day-jet-slid-off-runway-at-aberdeen-airport1/

Was just before my interest in aviation so don't recall it at the time, although I had seen reference to it since.

[CaptainDoony]

Pie Stand Announcement still "very shortly" I see.

As expected in July, Domestic and the Helicopters were a disaster with minus signs virtually everywhere - in fact only 4 domestic routes showed an increase, although LHR was one of them.

International was a bit better. Nice to see AMS break the 30k mark for the first time in a single month and GDN had another excellent month posting 93% loads. FRA also did well with over 20k in July.

[BFS BHD]

Icelandair is starting KEF-ABZ from March 2016. Four times a week. Flights will be done by a Dash 8.

Icelandair introduces flights from Aberdeen (http://www.aberdeenairport.com/about-us/media-centre/press-releases/news/2015/icelandair-introduces-flights-from-aberdeen/)

[CaptainDoony]

Hmm a decent enough addition but not sure the built up hype was worth it for a 4x weekly Dash to Iceland. Bring the 757!! :8

Still hoping a based LCC will happen this decade...

[CabinCrewe]

oooft... 2hrs+ on a Dash prop in the North Atlantic...?! Mmm.

[EK77WNCL]

I'd make that 3+ if you're lucky... Especially in the winter, you know what those winds are like.

Quick stopover in Vagar anyone???

[Inverurie Lane]

I'm not sure how long this service is going to last.
It's not so much that it's a Dash8, nor that you might have stop in Vagar.
It's the fact that it costs £440 for a return journey.
Maybe it's more attractive for Icelanders to come to Aberdeen!

[LGWAlan]

Whilst it may require a stop on occasion, bear in mind that they already operate Dash8 (of various genre) and Fokker50 on flights of over 3h regularly between Greenland and Iceland.

[CaptainDoony]

Hmm, I've just Very quickly priced up a random weekend return trip and comes to a little over £200. Must also be noted that Icelandiar will be expecting a good percentage of traffic to feed into their U.S. & Canada network.

The Q400 shouldn't have an issue on ABZ-KEF. It's a surprisingly capable aircraft with 1350nmi range (ABZ-KEF is only 850). Air Baltic operated a few ABZ-RIX rotations on their Q400's and that is quite a it longer than KEF.

[tangoecho]

The ABZ-KEF direct is about £220, it also gives you indirect (for the days it doesn't go directly) via LHR, AMS or BHX for around £440.

[Inverurie Lane]

Glad to see Icelandair heeded my previous message and, as has been commented above, now offer return flights for £220!!!

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

It's a shame that routes such as the new Poland route and the Iceland route were not brought in a few years ago as I'm sure this would of led to greater expansion.

Also why more emphasis wasn't placed on the charter market God only knows.

Instead management were solely focused on oil traffic and now the downturn has hit management are years behind where they should of been

Poor management is the sole cause of the airports problems

[Heathrow Harry]

but if the oil price goes south so does the holiday market

no jobs = no cash

and the oil market made a lot more cash than the bucket & spade brigade ever does............ in fact you often finish up paying the holiday airlines to use the place

ABZ hasn't a very large number of people around it - if it wasn't for the oil field trash coming and going it would be like Inverness

[kcockayne]

Yes, before the oil & just before I was posted to PD ATC, the airport was closed on a Sunday & there were very few flights on the other days. Just Sumburgh, Glasgow, Edinburgh & Wick, if I remember correctly. Mind you, most other regional airports were a lot quieter then than they are today.

[Richard Taylor]

Not particularly surprising...

Aberdeen jobs under threat at bmi regional - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-34131452)

HQ functions to EMA; Engineering to BRS.

BMI have retrenched at ABZ whilst expanding especially at BRS where they have been pretty successful.

Won't be long before the remaining ABZ routes are cut or transferred to Logie Bear.

[CaptainDoony]

And Loganair moving into the BMI Hangar. Is the bulk of Saab maintenance carried out at GLA presently?

Presumably the HQ will be added to the list of derelict, unloved buildings in Aberdeen before long?

Only BRS & NWI I would say are relatively safe for now. EBJ & OSL could go at any moment IMHO and wouldn't be a surprise either.

[Rossco27]

Any unusual movements this year as a result of Offshore Europe? I haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary sitting on the apron as I've driven by the airport this week.


In previous years BA had 767s on a couple LHR rotations during the week but that doesn't seem to have been the case this year.

[Heathrow Harry]

heard that no-one has had a probelm getting flights or hotels this week - normally when the conference is on it's really tight

rumours of a second set of cuts being prepared around the oil industry

[Richard Taylor]

Much more hotel capacity on line of course (ridiculously so!).

I would think there will be cuts as long as the price means big oil is not viable not only here, but in most other provinces. Definitely more pain ahead.

Re OE I think the biggest thing was a chartered Danish CRJ2. Usual array of biz jets spread over the week.

I'm old enough to remember BA temporarily 'shuttling' the LHR route on certain rotations, plus the likes of Busy Bee, Sterling, Maersk, Braathens over OE years....

I miss those days... :(

[GAXLN]

May be my memory, but I seem to recall a regular Tristar-1 operation by BA sometime early 80's on the Friday late afternoon rotation. Once the 757's started appearing on the route (I was on the very first one I think in May '83) then the Tristar's understandably faded away.

[Richard Taylor]

The TriStar was always a great sight above the skies, whether on approach or climbing out. Yes Fri evening 5614/5 teatime rotation. Quite ironic that it was at time when pax nos. were far lower than they are now, despite the oil woes currently! More destinations these days of course, not just London & AMS as it was back then.

Mixed set of results as expected for Aug - helis & domestic down, but intl 0.5% up.

[CaptainDoony]

Good news today. Another very strong month in Aug for Wizz with 3033 pax giving a 94% load factor and this strong performance has possibly contributed to today's announcement that they are launching Warsaw!

Twice weekly A320, Mon & Fri from 13/05/16

Given their expansion in the UK especially from BRS & GLA, one could hope there is scope for more expansion in the future. RIX next maybe?

[Richard Taylor]

Credit where due - excellent news!

Just think what we could do if the oil industry was booming... :}

Speaking of oil, see Bond have completed their extra hangarage at the airport. Not been out at the east side for some time - is this an extra hangar or have they taken over the Gama hangar (seems to recall Gama intending to build a new hangar for the ambulance fleet, before their more recent plans for a 'Bizjet centre'.

[matkat]

RT the Bond hangar is a brand new custom built facility.

[Richard Taylor]

Thanks Matkat.

Not strictly ABZ news, but across the N.Sea SVG is about to lose for W15:

IAH (the oil niche route, with the leased 737 SAS use redeployed to CPH-EWR)
CDG (Air France)
FRA (Lufthansa)

The last two of course links we have. And SVG I think is a bigger city than us.

It's tough out there in Less-Big Oil.

[Richard Taylor]

...not Norma-Jean, but Little Red. Final rotation was LHRABZ last night, before the 320 repositioned to DUB under an EI flight no.

As bmi did before them, LR found competing with BA too tough a call with all the connectivity the latter can provide through LHR.

I doubt we'll see competition on LHR again.

[wallp]

...not Norma-Jean, but Little Red. Final rotation was LHRABZ last night, before the 320 repositioned to DUB under an EI flight no.

As bmi did before them, LR found competing with BA too tough a call with all the connectivity the latter can provide through LHR.

I doubt we'll see competition on LHR again.

Perhaps with Little Red disappearing, EZY might increase their services from both LGW & LTN? I see they've announced frequency increases to INV so perhaps ABZ will see an uplift too?

[Inverurie Lane]

I'm not sure Virgin stopped their Little Red services because they couldn't compete with BA. More likely is that the dozen or so slots that they had at LHR each day for their domestic services can now be used by the much more lucrative long haul fleet.

[Ringwayman]

Those slots can't be used for anything other than what the EU proscribed for at least the next year.

[canberra97]

Ringwayman

I find it amazing that so many people just don't understand how the slots had to be used and still we have people suggesting that VS can use them where ever they want!

[Inverurie Lane]

Well excuse me. I thought that period was up - apparently not.

[Richard Taylor]

Apparently there was a partial collapse of the taxiway this morning up by W9 - presumably caused by the lovely weather over the past 24hrs...

Looks like the EZY expansion at INV is at the expense of ABZ... LGW being cut back I read.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Richard you are correct, Gatwick is cut down to once a day, will easyjet persist with the Luton service?

[cg78]

Any idea when this takes effect? I'm surprised - every time I've been on that flight it has been packed!

[Richard Taylor]

Will Easy persist with ABZ full stop - at least domestically?

And to think Flybe withdrew LGW when EZY arrived on the scene!

Didn't BA just - err - 'suspend' LGW when they pulled it? :confused: :E

I recall BA flying 4 rotations between here & LGW when they had the
B732/734 in the late 90s (BA 2922/4/6/2930/2928n/s). The short-term extra early evening rotation arriving ~1915hrs (2930 in/2929 outbound) was B732.

[Skipness One Echo]

Didn't BA just - err - 'suspend' LGW when they pulled it?
Don't think so. BA pulled LGW-ABZ soon after IAH-LGW was moved to LHR, high yield connecting traffic went to LHR with the Houston route alas.

[CaptainDoony]

Looks to take effect from June next year so could just be a seasonal reduction to account for English School holidays perhaps? Plenty of time for it to change of course. For better or worse :E

Generally speaking the EZY domestic network at LTN is a shadow of its former self.

Am I right in saying that when BA flew both LHR & LGW, LHR was only 5/6x daily compared to 9x daily most days today.

[Richard Taylor]

In my day (!!!) BA was usually 7xLHR M-F, less at weekends. And Danair did the LGW run with usually 1-11s!

Don't suppose everyone does but I miss the old 1-11s, Tridents etc! :O

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Gatwick and Luton are both not bookable after 26th June 2016, does that means it's cancelled after that date? Is this the end of easyjet at Aberdeen? If so its no great surprise when they can make more money on European destinations

[LandingConfig]

Gatwick and Luton are both not bookable after 26th June 2016, does that means it's cancelled after that date? Is this the end of easyjet at Aberdeen? If so its no great surprise when they can make more money on European destinations

Nothing after that date is on sale yet.

Flight schedule release dates | easyJet (http://www.easyjet.com/en/schedule-release)

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Even with offshore Europe this year numbers are still way down

[CaptainDoony]

It's still quite a bit off but already some changes being made to S16 schedules.

Of note so far:

FRA - LH reducing to 2x daily through the whole season (operated 3x daily Jun-Early Oct S15). Still to be operated by A319's.

SVG - Looks like it will maintain frequency so far but there is now a mix of 737's and CRJ's planned.

OSL - Unbelievable quite frankly. Currently looks like it will increase from the current 6x Weekly to 13x Weekly with again a mix of 737 and CRJ operating. Some odd timings with two departures on Fridays leaving at 18:50 then at 20:00. Loads on this route are dire so a frequency increase is really surprising.

A long way to go so no doubt a lot of further changes to be made before then.

[Heathrow Harry]

"OSL - Unbelievable quite frankly."

Suspect it won't be both - they'll cancel one set of flights and shift everyone onto the other one early next year - just keeping their options open right now

[CaptainDoony]

No, only the Friday is as per previous post. Mon-Thu is down as a morning & evening departure, basically a mirror of the CPH schedules.

[CaptainDoony]

I was waiting for the full stats to be released in case they were amendments but I did note some really poor performances on some of the sun routes in August i.e:

Reus / 586 / 60%
Faro / 962 / 81%
Ibiza / 988 / 83%

September stats not available for AGS airports currently to compare.

[CabinCrewe]

yet pretty poor when most are running high 90's for core sunshine. Cant see Jet2 jumping into this...

[Richard Taylor]

Amazed any airline would want to jump into ABZ nowadays. More like they should run as far away as they can.

The only city with a multi-million pound industry on its doorstep where nobody is in work!!

All the eggs in one basket... & now the basket had a large hole in the bottom.

[Heathrow Harry]

can someone do something to replace the b***** rotating door at the top of the Arivals ramp that means we all stand in a queue as 3 people at a time shuffle through?

And can BA and the Airport agree to both back down from what I understand is a stupid arguement and put in a machine so you can collect your boarding pass without having to line up even when you only have hand luggage??

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Perhaps that Cat 2/3 ILS isn't looking like such a bad idea after all

[CaptainDoony]

Yeah it's worked wonders down south the past couple of days!

(I'm being facetious before anyone says)

I see BA will operate a short haul 767 tomorrow morning to clear some of the backlog. It's sold out at least.

[rampss]

G-BNWX was the reg

[ScotsSLF]

Can someone explain to me why 4 x BMR EMBs diverted to PIK last night? Obviously the fog was to blame but why PIK?

[Richard Taylor]

Either bmir have some sort of handling arrangements at PIK (although I'm unaware of any) or GLA/EDI were full and unable to accept any further diversions. Or I suppose GLA/EDI were in themselves marginal viz-wise.

I think it was the 2nd scenario.

[rob39]

Whilst the EMB's were in a holding pattern north of the airport KLM PH-BGQ managed to land

[Richard Taylor]

More of the same tonight so far.

[Richard Taylor]

Not sure what - good or bad - Flybe have planned for ABZ, but I see there's a NQY - ABZ route planned for summer (courtesy Flybe thread).

[CaptainDoony]

This is how it looks currently for next summer:

BHD - 7x Weekly --> 9x Weekly
BHX - 20x Weekly --> 25x Weekly
LCY - 17x Weekly --> 12x Weekly
MAN - 31x Weekly --> 37x Weekly

JER - 1x Weekly
NQY - 1x Weekly (Sat, Q400)

So overall, a net increase of 8 flights a week.

[CaptainDoony]

...Describing it as a disaster is putting it nicely :ugh:

302,000 pax for the month, 15.4% down, yes 15.4! :eek:

Domestic -17.5%
International -8.7%
Helis -20.7%

[Richard Taylor]

It would be interesting to find out, without oil, what ABZ's passenger throughtput would REALLY be like. Probably make your eyes water with the cold wind whipping through an empty terminal!

Probably more on a par with INV, maybe slightly less?

One thing's for sure - 4m pa is a pipe dream!

[kcockayne]

If you go back to the early 60s, it was on a par with Inverness. Back then, Aberdeen was closed on a Sunday & on other days only had 3 or 4 BEA Viscounts each day. When the oil goes it will result in a marked reduction in traffic. All those helicopters for a start !
However, the population has grown a lot since the 60s, & even if a lot of it is oil related & is likely to move away, it will still be a lot higher than in the distant past. This should sustain routes to London, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester, Birmingham, possibly Amsterdam & a few "sun-routes".
Nevertheless, there will be a considerable drop in pax & movements. I'd hazard a guess at a total removal of helicopters & a 60% drop in fixed wing pax. This won't be good, but if oil goes so will the related industry, & the population.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

November will be even worse, perhaps this is the downturn finally kicking in, plus offshore move to a new roster soon with even less flights required, more and more staff getting sacked and the oil prices below $50 a barrel perhaps is here to stay for much longer, maybe it will go lower with a Chinese downturn.

What's amazing is the growth of edinburgh and Glasgow, 10% and 14% is huge numbers

[Heathrow Harry]

rumours of a second tranche of big cuts in oil jobs before Christmas.................

[househunter]

Very poor that EasyJet will only operate an evening flight next summer.

Who else could take over an Aberdeen London Gatwick flight?

[LandingConfig]

Very poor that EasyJet will only operate an evening flight next summer.

Who else could take over an Aberdeen London Gatwick flight?

Maybe it will tempt Ryanair to start STN flights?

[househunter]

Would be good to see, if Ryanair were to operate flights. The airport passenger loads are bound to go down if the airlines are reducing services.

[Richard Taylor]

It's happening now Harry. Quite scary living & working up here just now, actually. And this time, no alternative industry to the rescue.

Aberdeen AIRFIELD within 10yrs???

[Aksai Oiler]

We are getting to the stage in the next 12 months where worldwide production will start to decline naturally and investment will be needed to stop the decline. With all these (oil industry) cuts will we have a workforce willing and capable to deal with the challenge ahead? Maybe in 10 years time Dyce will just be the home for the Air Ambulance?

[Heathrow Harry]

there's half a million barrels in storage in tankers parked off Iran for a start.............

and when they can sell officialy that 'll keep the price low for a while

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

The October figures for aircraft movement were really no surprise.

Fixed wings 5815, down 14.5%
Helicopters 3272, down 25.1%

Not just going back to 2014 levels but going back to traffic about 10 years ago, only going to get quieter as more airlines cut back

[Richard Taylor]

BAA will have been glad to have got rid of the place when they did.

If the trend continues, wonder if Ferrovial will put it up for sale? And who would buy it?

[CabinCrewe]

just neefs to find its place in the new passenger number rankings ie minus the previously inflated oil traffic. Will operate quite well as a small regional airport with a few domestics and increasing low cost leisure, just look at Wizz. Some from FR or J2 and it will bob along just fine. I dont see it as a sell off dead duck for the long term

[CaptainDoony]

Was checking out BRS flights with them for next year and nothing is bookable after 24/03/16. Alarmingly, this is also the case with NWI, OSL & EBJ.

All their other routes are bookable, just routes ex-ABZ which generate an error.

Perhaps totally unrelated but I also note that Eastern are recruiting for BRS based crew as per their thread.

I could be putting two and two together and be way off the mark, but is this end of bmi at ABZ??

[Richard Taylor]

Wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised Capt D, something I speculated over a few posts back.

They have been drawing back their presence here, and the closure of the HQ/Engineering means they have no real ties here now.

The end of an era if it happens, an airline originally borne out of Business Air.

[MerchantVenturer]

bmi regional

So far as the BRS routes are concerned it's not only ABZ that is picking up a booking error message for next summer. DUS, MXP and HAM fare similarly. Only the BRS routes to CDG, MUC and FRA are so far available to book going forward from the end of March 2016.

Either bmir is having a major cull of its routes or some are not yet in the booking engine for the 2016 summer period, incl ABZ if that is the case.

[TartinTon]

Could be that they're looking to make some changes to the schedules and wanted to know what slots they could get? IATA slot conference for S16 was last week and DUS is especially slot constrained...just a suggestion!

[Richard Taylor]

Have now loaded BRS for S16 & next week increase NWI with an early afternoon departure M-F... per the bmi R thread.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

17.1% down for November, huge losses for domestic international and helicopters.

With oil predicted to fall to $20 and more job losses forecast Aberdeen will continue to suffer

[Richard Taylor]

Wish I'd put a bet on $20bbl now! ;)

The end cometh... I think ABZ should ditch any aspirations of being a major player & convert to being an operational airfield.

The good news is the fishing industry is on the up again....

Ferrovial will ditch it soon I reckon.

Watch all the oilfields be shut down. Watch Aberdeen be shut down.

[NorthernChappie]

Ach well with the fishing on the way up, at least Humberside numbers should grow.

[CaptainDoony]

ABZ will likely be closed for a little while with reports of a hole opening right down the centreline of the runway at the M7 intersection.

Dodgy construction perhaps form the extension? Quite a few diversions already.

[LBIA]

Is this connected to the reasoning as to why this afternoon Eastern Airways flight EZE4717 to LBA operated by BAe Jetstream 41, G-MAJU squawked 7700 shortly after take-off and eventually returned back to ABZ? Only be 1x arrival since the said incident with that been a British Airways A321 from LHR.

[Richard Taylor]

The masses will have to come by train - oh wait a minute, all lines closed due flooding.

Road? Nope, can't do that either due to severe flooding.

Ah well, will have to be boat - oh hang on, sea swell too dangerous.....

:ugh:

[CaptainDoony]

Is this connected to the reasoning as to why this afternoon Eastern Airways flight EZE4717 to LBA operated by BAe Jetstream 41, G-MAJU squawked 7700 shortly after take-off and eventually returned back to ABZ as they has only be 1x arrival since the said incident that been a British Airways A321 from LHR.

No, the Eastern returned due to an engine oil indication. Funnily enough the A321 was subbed in for an A320 which had also returned to LHR shortly after departure.

The current issue with the runway will be connected to the intense rainfall which the North East has been suffering for the past two weeks with today being easily the worst for the city areas. Dyce was in gridlock this evening.

[CabinCrewe]

shorter runway length being used?

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

14% down on 2014, oil price continues to decrease and expected to stay lower for longer, more redundancies planned for oil industry so expect further downturn for months and years to come

[Heathrow Harry]

BP shedding another 600 N Sea jobs............... :(:(

[Richard Taylor]

Can't get much gloomier. I had forecast somewhere on here $20 per B previously, & it's heading that way.

In fact, there's really nothing now to stop it falling to $0 - $10 bracket. Imagine that - oil at $0.01! :eek:

I'm almost tempted to say the sooner Abdn/NE rids itself of the oil industry to allow a reset of its economy now, the better. Lots of pain yes, but you do wonder...

I doubt we'll get much help from Govts (many don't know where we are) so any help will have to come from within, as Sir Ian Wood is trying to do.

As for ABZ... well, more of the same really. Bet Ferrovial are glad they bought it!! :hmm:

[Richard Taylor]

Aberdeen International Airport redevelopment to be detailed - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-35438843)

Biggest change in 40yrs to be detailed today when the First Minister visits the area to announce more help for those losing their jobs in the current local climate, but also the airport investment.

However I'm confused (easy I know!). These plans were announced in 2013, & I thought they were going ahead anyway. So has the downturn here stalled the developments commercially, so that the Scot Govt has to become involved?

[CabinCrewe]

oh no, not another PIK...

[Richard Taylor]

Not sure CC. I'm still not clear whether it's merely the current owners/AAL announcing the commencement of the project with the Scottish Govt there in moral support, or whether the Govt are actually also investing in the project.

Certainly plenty of money being thrown in our direction all of a sudden (you can have the debate whether it's substantial or peanuts).

All stuff of course that arguably should have been done during the early stages of the oil industry, as opposed to what may now be its sunset.

[Heathrow Harry]

Still no air bridges????? :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Richard Taylor]

No but plenty of jets from the artist images.............................

......................... that won't be arriving any time soon :8

[mwm991]

If you are going to have an Airport serving Aberdeen, given the state of North Sea Oil and the fairly small population, you'd be as well demolishing it and building it further south to attract more traffic from Tayside.

At this rate, the airport is going to end up like Inverness in a decade.

[ATNotts]

At this rate, the airport is going to end up like Inverness in a decade

I reckon that within 2 years we'll all have forgotten about $30 oil, and provided the companies (with government backing - both Scottish and UK) stick with it the good time will return, and all that will have changed with the companies will have become even leaner and even fitter.

[Richard Taylor]

To be fair, Inverness isn't doing too badly.............

[Richard Taylor]

...................wait for it..................

a ROUTES survey! :{

What routes would you like to see from your local airport?

Now, where have I seen THIS before.......................about ten times............ :ugh:

[mwm991]

New York and Dubai obvs!

[Ethiopia]

£20M investment for Aberdeen International Airport (http://aviationtribune.com/airports-atc/item/3329-20m-investment-for-aberdeen-international-airport)

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

17% decline for January, just gets worse and worse, time airport realised this is no short term decline

[Richard Taylor]

Thomas Cook has axed Dalaman from ABZ, due to 'volatility in the region'.

Doesn't say if that's our region or theirs... :E

[CaptainDoony]

They'd be as well packing up now.

Hers the definition of a token presence:

1x weekly 98 seater to Reus and a 2x YEARLY service to Tenerife.

[Heathrow Harry]

with the falling passenger numbers at least we might be able to get a beer from the airside bar in less than 20 minutes

[CabinCrewe]

seems said 'volatility' is only affecting ABZ... as DLM freely available from everywhere else. #copout

[Richard Taylor]

Yes CC, I did think it was a convenient smokescreen... but not smokey enough to see the real reason.

Cook should just withdraw totally.

[SWBKCB]

as DLM freely available from everywhere else

But at what level compared to previous years?

[Ametyst1]

Bookings to Turkey from the UK are down about 40% down this summer. I know that flights from Leeds-Bradford and Cardiff have been cancelled too.

Thomson Holidays, Thomas Cook Holidays and British Airways have all reduced/or cut routes to Turkey for Summer 2016.

[Heathrow Harry]

the real danger is that in a long recession in Aberdeen BA will cut the number of flights to LHR - and once they've gone I doubt they'll ever come back........................

[deecie]

the real opportunity is that in a long recession in Aberdeen BA will cut the number of flights to LHR - and once they've gone I doubt they'll ever come back........................

Leaving, more passengers for AF/KLM/Lufthansa/easyJet - who have all cut back already.

But positivity is a scarce attribute at the best of times in Aberdeen, never-mind right now.

[cg78]

Does anyone knows why tonight's LH974 FRA-ABZ turned back just north of Amsterdam and returned to FRA?

[Big Tudor]

seems said 'volatility' is only affecting ABZ... as DLM freely available from everywhere else. #copout
TUI announced only a few weeks ago that their bookings to Turkey were down 40%, so volatility is not confined to one airport or one operator. And today's bombing in Ankara, whilst not close to the big tourist areas, will do little to restore travellers confidence. More likely to drive bookings even lower.

[Richard Taylor]

Correct Deecie, & I would think twice about the oil industry as a career choice for today's school leavers up here. Many made redundant may also think twice about returning if there ever is a pick up again - although no doubt some may do.

Let's put it this way - if I had the money I would get the hell out of the place & not return; it's dying on it's arse & there are very few Sir Ian Wood's out there trying to revive it. I wouldn't trust any politician whose lips move.

A lack of foresight to diversify & being taken for granted are now being brought into very sharp focus.

More jobs/less unemployment - except here
More hotel occupancy & revenue - except here
More flights & routes - except - well you get the picture.

[CaptainDoony]

2015 (Grim(2016 to be even grimmer:})) Full Year Data for ABZ:

Domestic:

LHR / 726745 / -6.5
MAN / 202495 / -10.5
LGW / 163184 / +0.8
LSI / 144254 / -5.2
SCS / 143022 / -10.7
BHX / 115812 / -7.4
LTN / 71254 / -4.4
LCY / 63343 / +0.3
NWI / 50650 / -15.8
KOI / 48347 / -1.5
BHD / 40026 / +6.9
HUY / 30218 / -17.4
MME / 28203 / -19.5
BRS / 26447 / -16.8
NCL / 20775 / -31.1
JER / 17896
EMA / 15359 / -8.0
SOU / 13884 / -0.5
WIC / 12814 / -11.0
CWL / 10559 / -17.9
LBA / 9226 / +31.7
SYY / 5523 / -11.2

International:

AMS / 306004 / -0.4
FRA / 151684 / -7.6
SVG / 116837 / -15.5
CDG / 110739 / +0.2
CPH / 50838 / -4.2
BGO / 43964 / -15.2
DUB / 40467 / -14.4
OSL / 36075 / +17.1
PMI / 28163
TFS / 26040 / -20.2
DLM / 19247
GDN / 18118
EBJ / 9991 / -16.5
CFU / 7427
FAO / 6953
BOJ / 5638
IBZ / 5519
GVA / 4377
AGP / 4246
REU / 3025
ENF / 376 (So the Santa Charter went out full)

[jfy1999]

According to this PDF from Airlineroute, Thomson were to operate a one-off 787 flight to Dalaman on May 5, although I'd be surprised if it's still on:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6eA6dSrHUrReUluWDhwZlo2SXc/view

[CaptainDoony]

I can't think of any possible reason why they would use a 787 out of ABZ!

That said, I do note that it leaves at 0900 on that date instead of the afternoon departure it seems to be down to operate for the rest of the Summer season. Obviously not sure if this is related or not.

Edit: Also, I've just noticed that there is no return flight planned on that date which does suggest it won't be the ASL 73G. Interesting.

[Richard Taylor]

Cheer up all (incl me!) - Air Iceland starts soon :)

On the other side, CRJ900s will shortly be on all SAS flights, eventually no more 737s. Although I'm not so bothered about that. If the routes are dropped then that is slightly more concerning.........................

[kcockayne]

Can't see anything in Heathrow Harry's post that irritates me to quite the same degree as it irritates you, Hipsway !

[Heathrow Harry]

ABZ has held onto a lot of LHR slots because of the amount of full-fare traffic and connecting traffic to the USA

Now that the oil companies are cutting people, cutting travel and cutting back on the FF fares it becomes less attractive - watch for downsizing of equipment, "technical cancellations" (of non full aircraft) and a gradual cut in frequency - probably starting with the middle of the day flights

[Richard Taylor]

Well there's already a JetTime(?) B737-7 down to operate some freqs in S16.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Another huge decline for February, even with an extra day of flying included.

On the other hand central belt airports go from strength to strength

[mrzzzz]

Another huge decline for February, even with an extra day of flying included.

On the other hand central belt airports go from strength to strength
How's Melbourne mate? You still moaning I see!!

[Flightrider]

Well there's already a JetTime(?) B737-7 down to operate some freqs in S16

There's a JetTime 737-700 down to operate some frequencies on Copenhagen, Edinburgh and Glasgow to LHR as well. I hardly think you can cite the appearance of the wet-lease as indicating that the routes or frequencies are under threat. I do question whether BA would have done this if they still had competition on LHR-ABZ/EDI (I suspect they definitely would not have done) but as the competition has gone, it's a moot point.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

Mrzzzz it's busy, getting busier, just about to start building the 3rd runway, terminal 4 opened in December, too many A380s to control

[BAladdy]

Well there's already a JetTime(?) B737-7 down to operate some freqs in S16. ABZ will see Jet Time operate the BA1312/BA1313 rotation, Sunday to Friday from 30th March to 30th October

[5711N0205W]

I got this mailed last week for a flight we are booked on in June;

To support our larger summer schedule this year, Danish airline Jet Time will operate a small number of short-haul flights on behalf of British Airways.

We wish to advise you that one of your upcoming flights will be operated by Jet Time.

We apologise that we are unable to operate this service, however we are working very closely with Jet Time to ensure that our customers receive the same standard of safety and quality of service that they would expect on a British Airways operated flight.

Customers will receive the same advantages that they would be entitled to on a British Airways flight, including complimentary food and drink on board, and Executive Club member benefits. For further information, please visit ba.com

[Heathrow Harry]

start of a gradual erosion of service for sure..................

[CaptainDoony]

I guess GLA with up to 3x daily JetTime rotations is doomed...

[Heathrow Harry]

Smaller aircraft, some stand-in carrier.............

better than cancelling the flights but a slippery slope

[chinkoflight]

New kid on the block here, Anybody know what the early loads on our Air Icelands have been looking like ?

[CabinCrewe]

availability wide open on most dates if thats any indication

[CaptainDoony]

New kid on the block here, Anybody know what the early loads on our Air Icelands have been looking like ?

The March CAA statistics will be the best source for the average load factor % - these will be out this time next month. For what it's worth, the ABZ-KEF rotation went out full last Friday.

[CaptainDoony]

A little bit off yet but Flybe are increasing MAN to 7x daily Mon-Fri, 3x daily Sat and 5x daily on Sun.

Eff. start of W16 but quite an impressive offering and should be the BM gap filled on the route.

[fjencl]

Saw this vacancy advertised the other day for ABZ

Position: B 737 – Junior/trainee Cabin Crew
Base of Operation: Scotland, Aberdeen
Commencement Date: 2nd of May 2016
Contract Duration: 6 months contract
Candidate Experience:
- Scottish/English native speaker and Fluent French speaker

Wondered who this will be for as there is nothing mentioned in the advert.

[CaptainDoony]

Fjencl - Will be for the ASL France 737-700 that is based out of ABZ operating for Thomson in S16.

[fjencl]

Many thanks.

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

14% down, it gets worse and worse. No need for a new terminal, no one will be using it

[CaptainDoony]

Hmm and the drop off fee has been increased from £1 to £2 to encourage more punters to fly from ABZ.

[chinkoflight]

I do find that Airports really do take the proverbial at times. Govt imposed taxes etc are always referred to as totally outrageous etc etc and yet they themselves go and increase drop off fees with scant regard to their customers. They should be ashamed of themselves.

[Richard Taylor]

So how likely is the Sunday Times article that saw Flybe allegedly eyeing up LHR domestics? In effect taking up the Little Red slots.

I can't think LHR would even entertain turboprops back at their airport on UK domestics??

bmi couldn't make it work, Little Red couldn't make it work. I can't think how Flybe possibly could? Especially to ABZ in such challenging times up here?

[CaptainDoony]

Just all round it is a strange proposal from Flybe. It's not even like the slots have any cash value after the 6 consecutive seasons. If I understand it correctly, they can only be used to one additional EU city after the 3 years is up and not sold on at many £millions each. Why would VS have dropped it 6 months short if that were the case(!)

Codeshare traffic might help fill the aircraft up a bit but that's not exactly going to help BE's bottom line is it. So with P2P traffic being their only market, why not just stay and focus on their LCY routes instead of diluting/dropping that and going to one of the most expensive/congested airports in the world?

Besides a 3x daily Dash just can't complete with 8-9x daily Airbus to LHR on BA.

[Heathrow Harry]

Only way to compete would be to slash prices - tough to do if you're operating out of LHR and it's the Business (or Full fare) passengers that (used to) pay for the 9 flights a day...........

[wesleyscott]

would be better giving us a decent Gatwick service that actually feeds anywhere

[Heathrow Harry]

that drop off fee is a disgrace - I'll arrange to be dropped at the petrol station and walk down.........................

[5711N0205W]

that drop off fee is a disgrace - I'll arrange to be dropped at the petrol station and walk down.........................
Ditto, or at the Crowne Plaza or whatever it's called, one of the dozen or so hotels built in Aberdeen to meet the shortage of rooms...

[Richard Taylor]

It is a disgrace & they deserve every bit of the ****storm that has come, & is still coming, their way. Way to go to keep the passengers you have, at a time when they are falling already. :=

[CaptainDoony]

Geneva going to twice weekly next winter - an additional frequency on Wednesdays.

Figures were pretty average this year so surprised to see this.

[Richard Taylor]

A welcome bit of news from EZY.

Reading the MD putting a positive spin on the latest tale of woe (BBC website) she said this:

"Given the performance of the wider economy we fully expected a challenging start to the year, however, we have continued to work hard on providing passengers with more choice by securing new routes and I remain encouraged by our international traffic.

"There is a real opportunity for leisure capacity in Aberdeen and airlines such as Icelandair and Wizz Air have already demonstrated their confidence in the market with launch of important new routes.

"Both Thomson and Flybe will follow suit in the coming months during which time we will make real progress on our £20m investment programme."

Does that sound like both are planning new services, or just a bit of spin?

[CaptainDoony]

I would expect the bit about BY/BE refers to the launch of LPA/NQY.

I can't see ABZ management being so bold about potential new routes in their press releases!

[CaptainDoony]

A few from March:


KEF / 1029 / 55% / 40 pax per flight
GVA / 1027 / 83% / 129 pax
GDN / 2429 / 84% / 152 pax


AMS, CDG, FRA posting growth. Disaster everywhere else.

[Richard Taylor]

Quite relieved to see growth for AMS/CDG/FRA actually! I didn't think anywhere was growing!

However, and I can only go on the press report, the inaugural Thomson flight to LPA (B738) went out full yesterday, which is good.

I see the airport are being represented at the Europe routes event, armed with the latest 'wish list' - one destination that is quite surprising that people wanted was Vilnius. Personally I would have wanted Riga back - perhaps one for Wizz who seem to be doing OK still on Gdansk. When does their Warsaw route start?

Pleased to see EZY sticking with GVA & adding to it this winter with the Wed rotation.

[Richard Taylor]

Very sorry to see this news of another N.Sea crash, this one a CHC 225 in the Norwegian Sector.

The oil industry (& CHC if you read Rotorheads) is going through a tough enough time without this latest news.

Initial reports of the main rotors detaching possibly after disintegration sounds eerily like the Bond L2 crash off Peterhead from a few years back. No way back for a helicopter if that happens.

Good possibility that the machine involved today may have passed through or even have been based here for a time in its life. I wonder whether the 225 fleet will be grounded pending the investigation - almost certain I would say.

[CaptainDoony]

Correct Richard, EC225 now grounded by the CAA. Guess there is more slack in the fleets at ABZ these days so shouldn't affect operations too much.

https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/SD2016001%20Limitations%20of%20Operations%20Due%20to%20a%20F atal%20Accident%20in%20Norway.pdf

Also, here is a video of the rotor falling confirming the detachment in flight:

Her flyr rotoren på egen hånd etter helikopterstyrten (http://www.tv2.no/nyheter/8269925/)

[Richard Taylor]

That's a shocking video, seeing the rotors flying round on their own. Looks like all five rotors are attached to the rotor head so it appears to this
non-expert that the whole assembly came away from the fuselage.

All the countless number of helis I've seen flying in, out & over Aberdeen down the years - the last thing you think about would be the rotor head coming completely away from the aircraft.

Sincere condolences to the families of the Deceased.

[Heathrow Harry]

That's horrible...........................

[CaptainDoony]

April down 15.6% year on year, 254,000 pax.

Helicopters -23.8%
Domestic -17.9%
International -5.8%

Interesting article here about EZY and their concerns re ABZ.

easyJet highlights impact of North Sea downturn on Aberdeen flights (From Herald Scotland) (http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/14483572.easyJet_highlights_impact_of_North_Sea_downturn_on_ Aberdeen_flights/)

[ANYWHERE BUT ABZ]

I'm sure this decline is far from rock bottom, how long easyjet will persist with Aberdeen is anyone's guess when Gatwick slots can be used for much more lucrative flights.

After all the management speak about how well international traffic was going seeing over a 5% decline isn't really anything to crow about

[Richard Taylor]

Inaugural flight yesterday I believe - good luck to them!

Gdansk seems to be holding its own, here's hoping the same for Warsaw!

Powodzenia! :O

[5711N0205W]

Traveled outbound today;

- Never seen so many empty spaces in the car park (are people parking elsewhere?)
- What's going on airside of Gate 1?
- The BMI to OSL had 41 on an ERJ 145, not a bad load.

[CaptainDoony]

The new-ish car park on Wellheads will have taken some business away I'm sure, they seem quite competitive on price. That said, that car park only ever looks a third full whenever I see it.

I take it you mean Stand 4 with the Portakabins? Site office etc for terminal extension starting this month (started?). Is it still only stands 1-4 for international flights? Being down to 3 is bound to cause logistical issues at times I would have thought.

I had 25 on my ABZ-OSL last month on the CR9. 15 the time before that which is going back a bit admittedly to the Boeing 717. Just booked a LHR-ABZ for next month and to my surprise the BA1316 is sold out over a month in advance which was good to see although irritating in my case!

[CaptainDoony]

KLM cutting back on ABZ-AMS capacity quite a bit in the next few months:

Start July - End August will be all Embraer 190. Remains 5x daily but 2x daily 737's lost.

W16 - 1x Daily 737 4x E190. The nightstopper goes to E190.

About 3500 seats per month lost..

[Richard Taylor]

That's the way it goes, when the city's dying on its erse I'm afraid.

At least KLM are keeping the frequency.... for now.

[Richard Taylor]

Major Aberdeen International Airport revamp under way - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-36349513)

But is it all going to be worth it or are we going to become the 'Prestwick of the NE' - a large terminal with naebody in it?!

[letMfly]

Even if it doubles in size, it won't be a particularly large terminal.
Interestingly, it seems like it took a customer survey for the airport management to realise the baggage belt was "not fit for purpose". Sad that it takes Joe Public to point out the bleeding obvious to the airport "leaders".

[mwm991]

There is simply no need for separate airports in Aberdeen and Dundee. Money will dictate though that one will never be built in between however.

[Richard Taylor]

They could call it Aberdee, or Dundeen so the name's easy enough :p

Equally, why have Dundee or Edinburgh when they could build or reactivate one at...Leuchars. Or, why have Edinburgh & Glasgow when you could have one around Stirling, approx. mid-distance.

Basically, a city with its own airport is - generally - a great selling point for it. Granted, not really the case locally at present with what appears to be a dinner lady in charge. Would also appear they have the same mentality as the region generally... the oil price rise will rescue us, the oil price will come back etc. Err, not any more it won't.

[kcockayne]

They could call it Aberdee, or Dundeen so the name's easy enough :p

Equally, why have Dundee or Edinburgh when they could build or reactivate one at...Leuchars. Or, why have Edinburgh & Glasgow when you could have one around Stirling, approx. mid-distance.

Basically, a city with its own airport is - generally - a great selling point for it. Granted, not really the case locally at present with what appears to be a dinner lady in charge. Would also appear they have the same mentality as the region generally... the oil price rise will rescue us, the oil price will come back etc. Err, not any more it won't.
It's back to $50 per barrel now. Who knows where it will go ?

[Richard Taylor]

Not over by a long chalk - to me, the oversupply fundamentals are still there. Should the oil prices recover to any great extent, it doesn't follow that the UKCS work will follow immediately. It won't return to the 'good 'ole days' anyway. Plus, fracking in the US will just pick up again, and the whole oversupply problem will return, with Saudi not showing any willing to intervene as it used to, and Iran now back on the scene.

For too long this city, much of its people (not all) & those charged with overseeing the city (definitely all) have all sat back & expected the oil industry to bankroll everything in the city. Fat cat complacency, and that most certainly includes the airport.

Oh, there was some idle talk back in the day about 'diversification' but that's all it was, talk. Like so much else in this city.

Well now the chickens are roosting & the city is aiming for mass UNemployment, whether it likes it or not.

Better learn how to make fishing nets, as in days of yore..... or leave.

Shell cut another 475 & a long-established (1960s) local Engineering firm has just gone into admin - another 100+ to go.

Only jobs being created are in the Job Centre to deal with the mass increase in jobseeking applicants.

[kcockayne]

I agree with what you say but experience has taught me not to simply expect everything to turn out as the fundamentals would suggest ! However, I take your comments & analysis as a serious & carefully thought out argument. I guess that we'll just have to wait & see.

[Richard Taylor]

I am no expert Kcockayne but I have followed the goings on at the airport & by extension the oil industry since the early 80s. You're right too - sometimes things take a turn for the unexpected! However this downturn is the most serious by far & when the N.Sea is in its mature phase & when costs were allowed to spiral.

There may come an upturn of sorts, but for every upturn when the price rises there comes - eventually - a drop in price & the next downturn. The oil industry has always been cyclical, & it is more important now than ever that the region diversifies somehow.

Anyway back to the airport & Flybe have commenced the Newquay route. Good luck to them & who knows - maybe one day we'll see Exeter return.

[CaptainDoony]

First BOJ of the summer started today operated by an Atlasjet A321.

Has usually been on a Saturday morning but now operating twice weekly on Mondays and Fridays for the bulk of their season. Unclear if it will be on Balkan's own equipment or continue to be a stand in carrier.

Looks to be the same for next year also.

[CaptainDoony]

ALICANTE AND MALAGA FROM NEXT FEBRUARY!!

Both twice weekly - about bloody time!