RMC
16th Nov 2005, 10:07
Can someone in the know make sense of this. I subscribed to a US space radiation website in the Summer and this is the first daily e-mail I have had which says anything other than "risk very low" / "No activity".
Anyone able to decode or provide some advice on which of these warnings are of most interest to aircrew?
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822
(S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC
and
an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in
association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic
beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
at
moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a
possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated
period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class MÂ Â Â 50/50/50
Class XÂ Â Â 05/05/05
Proton    05/05/05
PCAFÂ Â Â Â Â Â green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed          14 Nov 092
Predicted  15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105
90 Day Mean       14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active               20/20/20
Minor storm          10/10/10
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active               25/25/25
Minor storm          15/15/15
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
 Â
Anyone able to decode or provide some advice on which of these warnings are of most interest to aircrew?
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822
(S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC
and
an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in
association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic
beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
at
moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a
possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated
period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class MÂ Â Â 50/50/50
Class XÂ Â Â 05/05/05
Proton    05/05/05
PCAFÂ Â Â Â Â Â green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed          14 Nov 092
Predicted  15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105
90 Day Mean       14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active               20/20/20
Minor storm          10/10/10
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active               25/25/25
Minor storm          15/15/15
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
 Â