Rumors of automated pilots

[FlyerBoy87]

Greetings fellow pilots,
Let me introduce myself. I am a 17 year old student pilot and have almost attained my PPL. I am seriously considering a career in aviation because I absolutely love to fly. I have heard rumors (Actually speculation from flight shows I've watched) about the human pilot being phased out and replaced with computers. I would very much appreciate a seasoned pilots' point of view on what the job market will look like in 8-10 years and if it will be worth my while to pursue a career in aviation. Thanks!

[Airbubba]

You'll be just in time to take advantage of The Great Pilot Shortage which has been coming for at least the last thirty years of what I loosely call my career...

[FlyerBoy87]

I've heard about the pilot shortage quite a bit. But what concerns me a bit is that I will go through all my training and maybe fly a few years, then i will be replaced with a computer. This might be crazy talk, but it's crossed my mind. What do you think?

[blueloo]

I think your CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZY :}








I see dead people. :E

[Airbubba]

Well, at least some military pilots will be replaced:

"...Congress last year set a goal of making a third of deep-first-strike aircraft in the U.S. fleet unmanned by 2010."

from: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-011902drone.story

A couple of the major cargo operators are known to be funding serious studies of pilotless planes. "Scope" is a very novel concept in the freight dog business.

At some point in the near future, airline contracts will have an automation section. Perhaps pilots will be grandfathered like Profession Flight Engineers in the old ALPA contracts.

I figure pilots have at least as much job security versus automation as elevator operators.

[Max Angle]

Absolutley no question that it will happen, the only question is when. My hunch is that it will be quite a while yet, enough to see me to retirement anyway.

[TheOddOne]

I think it'll be a close run thing between pilotless cockpits and the fuel running out.

If you look at the demand/supply curves for oil based products, fuel will become in sufficiently short supply as world demand rockets upwards to force JetA1 prices up far enough to take mass air travel out. There will still be air travel, but prices will go back to relative 1950s prices e.g. a ticket to Australia will be the same as a small house, New York from Europe a year's salary.

I give it 15 years, 20 absolute tops.

If you're looking for the golden age of mass air travel, we're in it right now. Enjoy it while you can!

As to taking up a career as a pilot, given the above, absolutely, in a heartbeat. Even if you only do it for a year, if you're in love with flying, do it. That's what I would say if I was 17 and staring at myself in a mirror. However, I'm now an old F*art, and youngsters don't listen to them - I never did.

Cheers,
The Odd One

[Meldrew]

Speaking personally, and probably for millions of other people as well! The day they try to fly passenger aeroplanes without a human pilot on board, is the day that I stop travelling by air!!

[Bealzebub]

This month I have had :

Flight management computer failure
Single autopilot Computer failure
One Eicas Computer failure
and
Retail company couldn't take my order due Computer failure
Gas company couldn't help me with enquiry because of Computer failure


The good thing is that when the computer crashes, it is the only thing that does.

No doubt one day such events will be so rare as to represent an acceptable level of risk. At the present time and probably into the near future it would be laughable to even suggest such systems for passenger aircraft. To sell such an idea to human customers, you would have to convince them beyond all reasonable doubt that such systems represented the most minute level of risk. In the distant future that might well be the reality.

[Meldrew]

COMMAND INPUT......Land the aeroplane.........................................."computer says NO" with apologies to "Little Britain"

[click]

Geez, I wish I was 17 again..I think my priority would be below my belt. Anyhow, after you get THE job, count on the crew management system to take care of any desires other than sleep. You've got a long road ahead of you, stick to it and don't get discouraged. Good luck and I wouldn't worry about being replaced by a silicone, except at home:E

[walter kennedy]

Just to put things into perspective - remember the flight using the Global Hawk system in an unmanned aircraft with the wingspan of a 737 that went from the USA to Australia non stop just a few months before 911?
For some reason this technological miracle has not been heralded much in the mass media.

[compressor stall]

Ah yes that was in fact pilotless, but with a cast of thousands in a control room back in the US.

Hardly economic...yet.

[bluepilot]

KLM has them now!! automated pilots who operate the aircraft, bloody good at doing things as "written in the book" but anything else is "shnot possibbbllle"

In other words the robot airline already exists, hopefully Air France will change things for the better.

[leftseatview]

A really fun thread on pprune in quite a while.

My take on it:

If Civilisation on earth survives a few more thousand years,and someone makes a list of the top 10 "fun" vocations that have ever employed humans.my bet is "pilot" will be somewhere near the top of that list,perhaps next to "Indiana Jones"!

This job became available just 100 years ago,and will exist in its "Indiana Jones" form(or avtaar) probably at the most for another 100 years(just a bit past young 17 year olds retirement,i am guessing)

Because, unless some crazy aviator cousin/s play a significant role in ending civilisation on earth as we know it,a 100 years from now most "Jobs" will be reduced to "programmer"

So looking at the bigger picture of the history of the world,we lucky ones sure hit the jackpot as far as good timing is concerned!

[seat 0A]

Bluepilot wrote:

KLM has them now!!

I guess you have a problem with SOP`s?

[slice]

If you think that extremely complex nature of aircraft command and control can be automated to the point of not requiring a pilot, then why has the vastly more simple closed loop system that trains operate in not been automated in the way propsed ?

[SFI145]

It has - for example the Docklands Light Railway.

[Bealzebub]

Of course with the Light railway, when it goes wrong it simply stops. Someone comes along with a ladder and every body slumps off moaning. Big difference with a firey charred trail of wreckage gracing the evening news. It is that reality that has to be overcome before such automation ever becomes feasable. A long way in the future I think ?

[flyboy007]

I wondered the same thing. However, if you really want an indicator, look at te trains!!
If ever there was a chance to fully automate a mode of public transport it is the rail system, yet it hasn't happened. One thing a computer doesn't have, that the travelling public want in a pilot is the will to live. When $hit hits the fan, a pilot may not have all the answers. He does however have a vested interest in finding them. A computer does not.
That is all.

ps. im a bit thick so probably best not to listen to me, in fact ignore me completely!

[FlyerBoy87]

My thoughts on it agree with many of everyone elses. First of all, if mass transit trains haven't, commercial aircraft have a long way to go. Second of all, many people are already afraid to fly. Fear+NO PILOT+not so good air travel economy=companies going under. Maybe I'm just optomistic because I want an aviation career very badly...

[FakePilot]

I think the first place truly automated aircraft will be is air taxies or personal aircraft.

Now before all you pilot types get all over me, I also think that "personal aircraft" will not replace big iron. Never seems to work out that way. And if it did, by that time nobody'd care anyway.

A pipedream? We'll see. I just want faster transportation, myself.

[Stall Inducer]

Fully automatic or not someone will still need to be responsible to oversee and manage the aircraft operation. Hopefully that person will still sit in the front of the aircraft with a big window to look out of and a personal interest in arriving safely at the planned destination. Besides who would sign the 'security' form every flight :D

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

You guys aren't thinking of the myriad little judgement calls you make every day that they can never write a computer program for.

They may not seem a big deal to you, because you do it every day, but most of them simply cannot be handed to a computer to sort out.

Example: I was flying SYD-BNE-SYD a few years ago. TAF's for both airports had no requirements on them. Flying north in the climb I noted a few buildups north of Broken Bay that had the potential to cause trouble on the way back. They were still small, but with the prevailing northerly..well.
Anyway, a judgement call was made and a quick amendment to the BNE-SYD fuel order was done to handle a possible unforecast Tempo TS at YSSY.
The TAF never changed, the TTF's never changed, even the ATIS was reluctant to admit that the Cb now over the field on our return had actually developed into an imposing TS.
As we turned onto final on 34R, I saw a wall of black and said... "Nup!"
The next 30 minutes were occupied by trying to find some clear air off the coast to hold in, watching the progress of the storm and calculating when we would have to divert to Canberra if needed. A break in the storm finally developed and we landed on 25 with no problems.

Have we got any programmers out there that could write something to handle that situation?

That is the sort of thing all of us do every day. A computer program to take over? Tell 'em they are dreaming...

[crossfire]

Leftseatview,

Because, unless some crazy aviator cousin/s play a significant role in ending civilisation on earth as we know it,a 100 years from now most "Jobs" will be reduced to "programmer"

I think that is a very optimistic view of the future.

In my opinion, the most common job in 100 years time will be 'Subsistence Farmer' :(

[FullWings]

I can forsee a time when it would be possible to replace human pilots with a software equivalent but will it be cost-effective and will 'they' be any better at the job?

Also, the amount of AI required just to cope with the 'expected' would be bordering on the 'sentient' level. First nonhuman BALPA member in 2020?

My opinion is that the profession of pilot will be one of the last to succumb to total automation - and at that point we won't care as we will have better things to do with our lives (optimistic view).

As many have pointed out, the technology to make mass rail transport fully automated has been with us for decades but there have been only relatively few specific implementations (mostly because of of cost & safety).

In summary: I wouldn't worry about it, even if you are only just starting your career.

[bluepilot]

seat 0A

no problem with the SOPs at all, but the kindergarden fleet (F50) really has a problem by training the pilots to be robots driven by books rather than developing airmanship, in fact the former chief instructor was heard to say "airmanship is an old fashioned word"!!! I gather the 737 fleet is a whole lot better, far more practical.

Bluepilot