US Tariffs
 

Given the Canada-US bookings through the whole Summer are now over 70% down like for like on 2024, any considered views on how a global 25% tariff might affect Europe-US traffic levels, both biz and leisure? Are we going to see a big drop in flights, and parked LH aircraft?

There are certainly people that will make a concious decision not the travel to the USA because of Trump's policies generally rather than tariffs in particular. However I really don't see your average family deciding not, for example, taking the kids to Florida to see the mouse.

What might be more interesting could be a fall in business travel on T/A routes as businesses look for new export markets to compensate for any reduction in US sales. If "front end" traffic falls "back end" economy fares may have to rise to balance the revenue.

Agree with the above. Irrespective of tariffs there will be a degree of drop-off in leisure demand simply through people avoiding or actively boycotting the USA. I know people that have said they wouldn’t go at the moment, I’m sure many others do. Stories of people being detained and badly treated either wrongfully or due to minor errors won’t be going unnoticed, in fact the UK’s travel advice has subtly changed in that respect. I’m aware some countries have gone further. I’d imagine people with less ‘European’ sounding names may have greater nervousness.

There is a world in which the opportunistic seize on a collapsing dollar to go shopping in NY or over to see Mickey. But that assumes status quo on general safety, it’s not beyond possibility there could be civil disturbance.

BA has put most of its eggs in the one US basket, will be interesting to see how this plays out.

People are being put into detention for 16/17 days without explanation and then deported despite having the correct paperwork. A French scientist was refused entry for criticising Trump on social media after his phone was examined. I have also criticised Trump on social media and as I don't fancy being chained up and carted off to jail, America is on my black list just like North Korea

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politi...advisories-us/

Every single thing has to be about transgender.
EVERY single thing?

Not really, is it?

Please keep the discussion to actual tariffs and their effect on pax purchasing behaviour. Politics in JeBlast.

As have Virgin. Could be an interesting time here too.

As tariffs have increased on steel and aluminium will this put more pressure on Boeing as I would imagine the costs for raw materials will increase.Maybe more airlines in Europe could be switching to Airbus.

But would Airbus have production capacity to fulfill the additional demand?

If Boeing costs did make them less competitive and Airbus couldn't match increased demand the likely result would be major cariers holding on to older equipment for longer. Given the consequences of a tariff induced recession would likely be lower oil prices this might not impact airlines too badly.

Then there are other manufacturers. Embraer might benefit and perhaps even Comac if the lunacy lasts long enough.

The biggest issue is likely to be the chilling effect on the global economy - knock a few percentage points off the current numbers and we're all in a recession. That always impacts airlines badly

Dont forget the impact on cargo. Particularly on long-haul widebody routes, a large proportion of revenue will be a result of cargo being transported in the hold.

Tariffs will have a direct impact on this, so you might see revenue declining here. This might make some of the more marginal routes unprofitable.

Additionally, while the changes might not have a direct impact on the loads, you may find it puts off enough passengers that airlines need to start decreasing fares to fill the flights, again hitting proftability.

Find it hard to believe bookings are down 70%. Where do you get those figures?

BBC were interviewing a hotelier in Maine and he said his summer this year has been wiped out as all his Canadian business has not booked or cancelled and he
actually said he cannot blame them

Really? Have you not seen the Trump rhetoric and actions against their neighbour?

I think US tourism from UK and Europe will take a bath due to both Mr Trumps antics and statements, as well as exchange rates. It will be interesting to see what happens to US visitor numbers coming this way, if there is a perception in the US that Europe or indeed Canada are unhappy with the stance from Washington. It does not take much to put US tourists off venturing outside of the mainland US or Mexico, Canada ,Caribbean, though of course some of these may also be in future perceived as threatening / unsafe. Interesting times unfortunately.

Cheers
Mr Mac

I have been reading speculative comment pieces that one of the consequences of current US policy will be to weaken the dollar. If that is the case, tourism may be encouraged by such a realignment. If I was getting $1.50-$1.60 on my £, it would be a serious contender.

And conversly, American tourism abroad would drop