US Tariffs
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Joined: Nov 1999
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From: Edinburgh
US Tariffs
Given the Canada-US bookings through the whole Summer are now over 70% down like for like on 2024, any considered views on how a global 25% tariff might affect Europe-US traffic levels, both biz and leisure? Are we going to see a big drop in flights, and parked LH aircraft?
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1st April 2025, 18:55
Joined: Mar 2006
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From: Between the flower pots
People are being put into detention for 16/17 days without explanation and then deported despite having the correct paperwork. A French scientist was refused entry for criticising Trump on social media after his phone was examined. I have also criticised Trump on social media and as I don't fancy being chained up and carted off to jail, America is on my black list just like North Korea
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politi...advisories-us/
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politi...advisories-us/
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What might be more interesting could be a fall in business travel on T/A routes as businesses look for new export markets to compensate for any reduction in US sales. If "front end" traffic falls "back end" economy fares may have to rise to balance the revenue.
Joined: Aug 2014
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From: Outer London
Agree with the above. Irrespective of tariffs there will be a degree of drop-off in leisure demand simply through people avoiding or actively boycotting the USA. I know people that have said they wouldn’t go at the moment, I’m sure many others do. Stories of people being detained and badly treated either wrongfully or due to minor errors won’t be going unnoticed, in fact the UK’s travel advice has subtly changed in that respect. I’m aware some countries have gone further. I’d imagine people with less ‘European’ sounding names may have greater nervousness.
There is a world in which the opportunistic seize on a collapsing dollar to go shopping in NY or over to see Mickey. But that assumes status quo on general safety, it’s not beyond possibility there could be civil disturbance.
There is a world in which the opportunistic seize on a collapsing dollar to go shopping in NY or over to see Mickey. But that assumes status quo on general safety, it’s not beyond possibility there could be civil disturbance.
Joined: Mar 2006
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From: Between the flower pots
People are being put into detention for 16/17 days without explanation and then deported despite having the correct paperwork. A French scientist was refused entry for criticising Trump on social media after his phone was examined. I have also criticised Trump on social media and as I don't fancy being chained up and carted off to jail, America is on my black list just like North Korea
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politi...advisories-us/
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politi...advisories-us/
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If Boeing costs did make them less competitive and Airbus couldn't match increased demand the likely result would be major cariers holding on to older equipment for longer. Given the consequences of a tariff induced recession would likely be lower oil prices this might not impact airlines too badly.
Then there are other manufacturers. Embraer might benefit and perhaps even Comac if the lunacy lasts long enough.
Joined: Oct 2018
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From: Ferrara
The biggest issue is likely to be the chilling effect on the global economy - knock a few percentage points off the current numbers and we're all in a recession. That always impacts airlines badly
Joined: May 2002
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From: SW Scotland
Dont forget the impact on cargo. Particularly on long-haul widebody routes, a large proportion of revenue will be a result of cargo being transported in the hold.
Tariffs will have a direct impact on this, so you might see revenue declining here. This might make some of the more marginal routes unprofitable.
Additionally, while the changes might not have a direct impact on the loads, you may find it puts off enough passengers that airlines need to start decreasing fares to fill the flights, again hitting proftability.
Tariffs will have a direct impact on this, so you might see revenue declining here. This might make some of the more marginal routes unprofitable.
Additionally, while the changes might not have a direct impact on the loads, you may find it puts off enough passengers that airlines need to start decreasing fares to fill the flights, again hitting proftability.
Joined: Jan 2011
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From: winchester
Find it hard to believe bookings are down 70%. Where do you get those figures?
Joined: Apr 2003
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From: Northumberland
Airline travel between Canada and the US is “collapsing” amid Donald Trump’s tariff war, with flight bookings between the two countries down by over 70%, newly released data suggests.
According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through October 2025, with the biggest cuts occurring between the months of July and August, which is considered peak travel season. Passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are currently down by over 70% compared to the same period last year.
According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through October 2025, with the biggest cuts occurring between the months of July and August, which is considered peak travel season. Passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are currently down by over 70% compared to the same period last year.
Joined: Jun 2007
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From: Beyond the Blue Horizon
I think US tourism from UK and Europe will take a bath due to both Mr Trumps antics and statements, as well as exchange rates. It will be interesting to see what happens to US visitor numbers coming this way, if there is a perception in the US that Europe or indeed Canada are unhappy with the stance from Washington. It does not take much to put US tourists off venturing outside of the mainland US or Mexico, Canada ,Caribbean, though of course some of these may also be in future perceived as threatening / unsafe. Interesting times unfortunately.
Cheers
Mr Mac
Cheers
Mr Mac
Joined: Jul 2003
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From: Under the flight path
I have been reading speculative comment pieces that one of the consequences of current US policy will be to weaken the dollar. If that is the case, tourism may be encouraged by such a realignment. If I was getting $1.50-$1.60 on my £, it would be a serious contender.
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From: Northumberland
And conversly, American tourism abroad would drop