What will happen to the slots being given up by EI? Will they be sold by EI(if there is a value) or will they be returned and distributed by ACL? I think EI operated 4/5 times a day so a fair number of slots suddenly available.

I think Aegean also held slots for a service to Athens this summer, but this seems to have been taken off sale as well. It was on sale, but is no more. Same with Air Algerie.
So there does seem to be a bit of churn going on. Will be interesting to see what comes of all of this.

Air Algérie had recently announced changes to their proposed Algiers to London Gatwick route.

Service was supposed to start on the 06 January 2024. This has now been pushed back to the start of the IATA summer season with service to commence on 31 March 2024.

Flights are now scheduled to be daily by a Boeing 738.

Tentative schedule for service to commence on the 31 March 2024.

AH2058 ALG 15.10 LGW 16.40 Daily B738
AH2059 LGW 17.50 ALG 21.40 Daily B738

Air Algerie had these flights on sale, but they are not on sale now.

If EI can’t make DUB-LGW work, I doubt BA could (EF or not).
Can’t see TAAG or eg SpiceJet at LGW anytime soon either.

Shame about Aer Lingus :( They've been here at Gatwick for many years and at one stage even had a base in the mid-late 2000s at LGW. FR will undoubtedly step in and add additional capacity to compensate. I reckon BA would only look at starting LGW-DUB if there is sufficient feeder traffic/demand, which, given EI's departure, sadly suggests otherwise. I also can't see EZY launching this route, given FR's dominance in DUB. However, like 2023, I am optimistic that LGW will see further new carriers this year, its just questions of when and who, rather than if.

I remember when easyJet dipped their toe into the ROI market from Gatwick in the early 2000's with flights to Shannon, Cork and Knock. Ryanair were absolutely ferocious in their response and drove them off the routes so I think easyJet will stay well clear of the Dublin > London market.

EI leaving LGW (again) ... what will happen to LGW slots
 

I read somewhere that a major factor in EI deciding to pull its DUB-LGW route was the post pandemic collapse in business travellers using the route pre pandemic. These are the people who generally wouldn't fly FR. Without those business travellers, EI is left with only those who wouldn't mind flying FR if the price is more attractive. Given that FR's costs are significantly lower than EI's and that FR serves LGW-DUB up to eight times daily all-year round as opposed to EI five times daily in winter and only four times daily in summer mainly at very similar times to FR, with transatlantic connections at DUB generally not working well in terms of extended layover at DUB compared with FI via KEF, especially when looking at it both ways, this is an uphill struggle that EI couldn't win. Another factor is the arbitrary 32 million p.a.pax cap at DUB, which I vaguely recall was a concession DUB had negotiated in return for getting permission from the ROI government to build a second runway many years ago. This means that even though DUB has twice LGW's runway capacity, it effectively handles 15 million fewer pax p.a. than LGW at its pre pandemic peak! Given this artificial constraint in addition to the other factors I mentioned, I'm not at all surprised EI has pulled the route. In this connection as well re loss of transfer traffic between EI and BA at LGW, given that the majority of those were probably transferring at LGW to / from places like MCO and BGI, EI can easily redirect thus traffic via MAN as both MCO and BGI are served by EI's UK subsidiary from there, with this being even more advantageous than routing them onto BA via LGW as EI will be able to keep all the revenue - incl. the really profitable long-haul portion of the entire itinerary instead of "gifting" this to BA while keeping only the loss-making short-haul portion - in-house.

The interesting question -as already mentioned before- is: What will happen to EI's LGW slots?

Getting up to five daily, commonly timed slot pairs at popular times when most passengers actually want to fly at LGW these days is an absolute rarity. Therefore, I do believe these slots have great value. So far, EI appears to be tight-lipped re what they're planning to do with those slots - giving / selling them to BA or another IAG airline with a presence at LGW like VY for ecample, selling them to a non-IAG airline like FR for example or returning them to the LGW slot pool for reallocation by ACL. Also, as each of the up to five daily LGW slot pairs EI currently uses has a 40 min turnaround between each arrival and departure, these slots will be best suited to a short-haul operator using aircraft based at the other end of the route (not at LGW) if all slots are to be used on their entirety - i.e., as a package to be used by one operator (the only option if EI wants to realise the value of these slots by selling them at a profit) rather than being disaggregated and randomly redistributed among different operators. In my opinion, this will make them awkward for BA's LGW EF short-haul subsidiary as they would need to overnight an aircraft at the other end of the route to make best use of them, something they firmly ruled out doing as this was identfied as a major source of the losses BA has historically incurred on short-haul at LGW. While this still doesn't rule out BA mainline potentially doing a DUB-LGW feeder in a W pattern as they currently do on GLA-LGW, like GLA-LGW, this would probably be a single daily flight only.

The following scenarios are the most likely in my opinion re future usage of EI's LGW slots:

1 Selling them to FR. As FR already effectively duplicates most of EI's current timings on LGW-DUB and tgey already run a high-frequency service on this route with up to twice EI's frequency, they'd probably only at another sngle daily frequency to their current LGW-DUB schedule, making it up to nine per day (instead of up to eight), with the remaining three to four daily slot pairs being used to boost frequencies on LGW-ORK and LGW-SNN from the current single daily round-trip to double or triple daily and perhaps reintroducing LGW-NOC (probably as a summer seasonal service, with this slot pair being used to fly in and back out of LGW from one of FR's numerous Continental bases in a W pattern in winter).

2. Selling them to a short-haul member / affiliate of one of the three big global airline alliances, such as Skyteam for example, either FSC or LCC.

2 1. If FSC, this could be a once in a life time opportunity for an airline like KL or AF to tap the LGW catchment area for connecting traffic transferring at their AMS or CDG hub to / from their globe-spanning long-haul route network, neatly complementing their long- and well-established presence in the LHR catchment area, where - because of even greater runway capacity constraints than at LGW - short of LHR actually being able to build a third runway - it will be impossible for them to further increase flight frequencies to / from their own global hub airports. Either KL or AF would be a great addition for LGW in my opinion as it would open up a multitude of new global, one-stop connections for LGW, which unlike those already provided from LGW by the likes of EK, QR and (from 22 June) SQ will not only offer additional eastward-facing connections but westward-facing ones as well. Personally, I would favour KL over AF as AMS despite its recent issues is a more user-friendly hub than CDG although I'm conscious that adding up to five new daily LGW-AMS feeder flights will probably be more difficult to achieve than for AF to add this many flights at CDG because of previous Dutch government policy to cap flights at AMS despite tgis being a six-runway facility. M

2 2. If LCC, staying with the example of the Skyteam alliance, the French arm of HV, most likely on the shape of an up to five times daily ORY-LGW service usibg ORY-based aircraft as there will be sufficient capacity for HV to do so at the ORY end as well given AF's decision to discontinue its French domestic shuttle services to / from ORY for very similar reasons as those stated by EI for discontinuing LGW-DUB (a collapse in business traffic) and to transfer its ORY slots to HV. If HV were to use AF's ORY slots and EI's LGW slots to launch LGW-ORY, their frequency could be an exact match of EI's current LGW-DUB frequency: five daily from Monday to Friday, two daily on Saturdays and four daily on Sundays, and they could probably continue to use South Terminal's pier 1, making LGW's operational planning easier than if KL or AF decided to take EI's LGW slots themselves as they'd probably pefer to be in the North Terminal.

Aer Lingus are dropping services between Gatwick and Dublin after 30th March.

We know already. This has already been mentioned on this thread and discussed. It was first mentioned by post 1435 at 15.15 on the 19 January 2024.

Another route to China on sale with China Southern

Are you telling us or asking us?

If you already know the route in question why not mention it in your very brief comment.

I take it that you are referring to China Southern Airlines from Guangzhou CAN to London Gatwick.

Another route to look out for from China in the coming weeks is a possible announcement of a resumption of Air China from Beijing to London Gatwick, apparently going daily.

On a negative note, China Eastern Airlines are believed to be reducing service to London Gatwick from Shanghai. Air China on the other hand are proposing an expansion with a daily service from Shanghai to London Gatwick.

For summer 2024 London Gatwick will see three Chinese carriers serving the airport from possibly four Chinese airports.

Air China...Beijing, Shanghai
China Eastern Airlines...Shanghai
China Southern Airlines...Guangzhou, Zhengzhou

Hopefully the next Chinese destination to London Gatwick will be Hong Kong with a resumption of service by Cathay Pacific Airways.

China Eastern and Air China are not competitors in the traditional sense, state carriers sharing routes and resources at the strategic level.
Cathay won't be back at LGW before they're able to crew and fly 5 x daily B77Ws out of LHR, that's not this year IMHO.

Gatwick longhaul routes
 

Cathay pacific are going to be launching flights to hongkong in October. Massively in their plans this year.

Avianca are going to be launching Bogotá at some point. Sri Lankan and Azul are also on the cards.

from an African point of view air Tanzania, air Zimbabwe are also likely to launch.

From my point of view nearly every carrier could launch Gatwick at anytime.

singapore launching flights is so massive for the airport could very much see a domino affect here

As someone who flew Cathay Pacific several times when they returned to LGW in September 2016, I was genuinely gutted when they cancelled the route owing to Covid. Since then I've been eagerly awaiting news for their return to LGW. I can't wait to see their A350 back at the airport, considering that LHR will no longer see the CX A350 from March onwards. Do you have confirmation of Cathay Pacific returning to Gatwick in October this year?

Cathay pacific
 

One they are hiring staff for London massive sign imo.

two I used to work at the airport and know people who tell me they are going to announce soon.

be very suprised if they didn’t announce before June

CX returning to LGW
 

Brilliant! I've many fantastic journeys with them, including a recent one on the A350 from LHR, and they are my preferred carrier when flying long haul. I'm keeping everything crossed that the announcement will be made soon and confirmation of this route returning made, I cannot wait to see them come back!! :) Presumably the a/c will be as was before (A359)?

Cathay pacific
 

Yes it will be a350-900 I believe at five weekly, starting October 28. I think we will see a lot of new routes and increases from Chinese carriers this year.

Cathay pacific
 

Also if you search up london on the Cathay pacific website it goes gatwick/Heathrow instead of just Heathrow so many subtle hints

Admittedly, the London LHR/LGW search option has been in place on the CX website for quite a while now, with the existing options to HKG from LGW usually involving a hop to AMS (BA) or Madrid (Iberia), so unsure if that search option is a sign of them coming back, as it has been a search option for a while (certainly since the route was suspended in February 2020).

Fantastic! :) I wonder if they'll end up flying at similar times as they did before? IIRC, CX354 would leave Gatwick in the early afternoon (circa 12:30pm) and CX343 would arrive 6:30-6:40 ish. Hopefully they will use the South Terminal again.

Cathay Pacific
 

It will be south terminal for sure. One world with British airways. I think China southern are moving to north terminal.

We see lots of reports of 'imminent' start dates for various foreign operators, not only on PPrune but on various aviation/routes websites. On many occasions it just seems to be people regurgitating an announcement that has been made by an airline regarding their intention to fly to the UK. But there are quite a few hurdles to overcome before a new operator can start. Apologies to those of you who may be familiar with all of this, but thought it might be helpful to summarize.
Firstly, Air Zimbabwe, like Iraqi Airways, is on the UK Safety List, so cannot operate here unless they use wet-leased aircraft.
Before any foreign carrier can fly commercially to the UK, they must obtain a Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation. This is a safety assessment of the carrier, independent of the EASA TCO approvals, without which the airline cannot apply for a Permit to fly to the UK. The CAA publishes a list of all TCO holders on its website.
Once the TCO is in place, the operator can apply for a Foreign Carrier Permit, but it is a bit more than a rubber stamping exercise. The carrier's proposed schedule must be consistent with the bilateral Air Service Agreement between the UK and State of Origin (some ASAs limit the number of carriers from each side or have frequency and capacity restrictions). The carrier must demonstrate that they hold sufficient insurance cover and have a system to collect and transmit to UKBF Advanced Passenger Information (API). There will also be a security assessment of the airport(s) from which they want to fly. Depending on how organised a carrier is, these things can take quite a bit of time, and might prevent the operator from meeting their proposed start date, or preclude them from flying here at all.
So, yes, good to see positive intent from plenty of overseas carriers, and ACL reporting that some already hold slots, but until all of these other things are in place, they will not be able to commence flights!

Good to know, that being said... :

Have Cathay got their crewing issues sorted out then? Cos LHR is still only 4 daily on not all B77W by a long way.
Are Avianca moving from LHR or is Bogota growing fast enough to warrant two London airports?

Surely most would/could just go on similar BA services?

I am as I'm sure your aware in total knowledge of how the Chinese carriers work and who actually operates them.

Although I stated the future possibility of Cathay Pacific returning to London Gatwick I fully agree with your comments. You've stated the same on several occasions. Although the "future" could be any date in time.

CX
 

South terminal is definitely busy now as far as long haul is concerned, so presumably China Southern are moving to be able to accommodate CX's return to the South Terminal when they (hopefully) return in October. Will be something seeing both the SQ and CX A350s at Gatwick.

As Skip inferred Chinese carriers are a Ponzi scheme with differing liveries . That said there are nuances with areas of interest, and even some intergovernmental disagreements particularly between Beijing and Shanghai .

Absolutely everything the three main groups do is sanctioned by the state . Their existence in the international sphere is both soft and hard power political projection.

Nothing in China is ever all it seems

Many thanks for your response but I'm fully aware of everything that you have stated as well what Skip was inferring to. I'm certainly no novice I can assure you. But at least you have informed those who didn't know any better.

Gatwick airport
 

Gatwick at the moment is very interesting probably the most interesting out of any airport in the world if you like new routes.

If you saw the Heathrow slot report around 50 airlines asked for new additional or new slots. Obviously most of them are gojng to wait till they get them. However some will choose Gatwick and very few like royal Jordanian will go to stansted.

For me the Gatwick slot report is interesting but at this moment in time quite irrelevant as many airlines not requiring those slots and looking to expand operations to London will go to Gatwick so any airline could come to Gatwick at anytime.

Right now azul of Brazil, Cathay, Vietnam airlines, taag, avianca and even Sri Lankan are most likely to start and an additional Chinese carrier could also be a potential. But generally it could be anyone from anywhere.

Is there a demand for Japan? Just curious as seems like a destination that would work.

Gatwick
 

I forgot to add air peace into the mix too

There will be, but with the seemingly indefinite situation re Vlad (and his big airspace) it doesn’t seem the best of times for a Japanese carrier to open LGW imho

Perhaps in a few years time though.

Japanese airlines are incredibly conservative with regards to growth. And JAL managed to get slots for the 2nd daily a few years ago at LHR.

Norwegian wanted to fly LGW-NRT pre covid but had an issue getting rights (can’t remember if it was Russian over flight right or something else).

I can’t see ANA or JAL going to LGW. Maybe one of their low cost carriers - Air Japan or ZipAir might if they ever expand to Europe.

Gatwick longhaul options
 

So with air peace pretty much done and coming I am now looking at more Africa, Asia and South American growth.

I have no faith in any carrier announcing Japan, however south Korea I believe Korean air could return.

Other places china and India is where the growth for me will be. Thai could announce next year or even winter, air Asia next year.

other airlines that could are etihad, gulf air, Kuwait airways etc.

South American growth- aero Mexico, avianca and azul could add.

then Africa- any of these: air Tanzania, taag, Egypt air, air Zimbabwe, Kenya airways etc

Your getting a bit carried away aren't you. Anyone can read the ACL reports and assume what they like.

Are you even considering runway and terminal availability and capacity for all those airlines your thinking out aloud about. You have to remember that LGW currently has just a single runway and only two terminals.

But you've definitely come out of your slumber with more posts in two days than since you joined in March 2023. You've found an audience on here and quite possibly daydreaming to some extent.

Although I agree with a few of your suggestions but why would Aeromexico, Avianca, Etihad, Gulf Air, Kenya Airlines, Kuwait Airways, Thai want to obtain slots at LGW. The only one out of that list that could be Etihad resuming LGW, although I don't personally see them doing so.

Korean Air is awaiting final permission to merge with Asiana and probably wouldn't be looking to resume LGW.

South America isn't so much a growth area as you assume with most of the continent suffering from economic crisis and social problems amongst other things.

With your slight imagination, I'm surprised that you didn't include Aeroflot, Air Koryo, Ariana Afghan Airlines, Conviasa, or even Syrianair.

I personally don't agree with you regarding Air Peace being a done deal at LGW.

Air Peace have made it known very publicly that they won't be flying to London in the near future unless they can obtain slots at LHR. They have mentioned at the same time that they don't intend on initiating service to London if only LGW is available to them. The airline has been proposing a London service for over five years. They have had every opportunity to do so in that time.

In my opinion, the airlines that could possibly land at LGW in the next year or so are.

Air Tanzania... Once they obtain their 3rd B788 in Q2 or Q3 24.

Air Zimbabwe...They have already made it known that they intend on a resumption of Harare to LGW in the near future, but after CAA approval or via an ACMI at first. The airline has recently received it's first B772 at Harare Airport in an all white livery. Another three B772 are set to join the airline in the next few months, which are all ex Malaysian Airlines.

Azul...Quite possibly but pending further A339s being delivered.

Cathay Pacific...Probably, but more than likely not until capacity at LHR has been exhausted, despite your previous comments (dreams) about a definite return in October.

Ghana Airlines... Once they finally get going and an order for long-haul aircraft is placed.

Iraqi Airways... More than likely especially with new aircraft joining the fleet although probably via an ACMI at first.

Nigeria Air... Quite possibly when they finally get an actual airline started which could take several years.

Sri Lanka Airways...Very likely, in my opinion.

TAAG Angola Airlines... When they eventually decide to start, I suppose, who knows what's going on.

Uganda Airlines (After CAA approval and final audit of Entebbe Airport which is due sometime in Q3 24)

Gatwick
 

No it’s not imagination at all!!

All the airlines I have suggested have little or no airport slots at Heathrow, so will obviously look at ways to expand which predominantly will be Gatwick.

I have information from inside the airport and all of these I have suggested are maybes. Also with air peace have you read that they are trying to codeshare with Norse and are trying so hard to gain the right Gatwick slots.

Avianca wanted another daily at Heathrow and they haven’t got it.

obviously Gatwick is near full but there is a 90 percent chance that they will gain a second runway. Yes I have a little too much enthusiasm Sometimes but nothing is out of realms of possibility especially when you see all the airlines that have come to Gatwick in the last year!

Air Pease is far from done and they are NOT looking at codesharing but potentially leasing - Read that fluff piece again, if it were me I’d run a mile or have a YEARS money upfront and CLEARED in the bank !

They have no slots and their colourful “owner” is adamant they DONT want to go to GATWICK !

Iraqi (at leat the IA code) will be back in the UK at some point - Its not reliant on aircraft deliveries on the YI- register through just safe compliance.

I see none of those African “ virtual” carriers anytime soon . And Air Tanzania use of their second 787 is contingent upon what their Chinese masters prioritise- More likely upgrading Dubai than London imho.

TAAG continue to fly leased in aircraft to Porto, Lisboa and Madrid with just 3 of the 77w available at any onetime. Typical daily is 2 Lisbon, 1 Porto and 5 weekly Madrid with Brazil and South Africa filling -imho I very much doubt they have spare capacity anytime soon.
IDK know but surmise they may still be operating under restricted license from CAA/EASA

SriLanka do they not have sufficient slots at Heathrow to cover in excess of daily flights or are they looking at Hambantota with a tour operator perhaps ?

Azul - yes viable

Cathay - Really difficult to measure what with continued pressure on those British overseas passport holders and particularly their finances later in the year.
Its beyond regrettable the current political situation in Hong Kong masked via COVID

It’s being reported about some kind of potential partnership between Air Peace and Norse. https://punchng.com/fg-in-talks-with...london-flight/

Don’t see anything tangible it’s pure fluff, and as I said imho Norse would be advised to get a shed load of money UPFRONT And CLEARED in their bank.

Its hard enough for established businesses to repatriate funds at the best of times Norse need very careful legal financial and risk analysis support !

I am sure there will not be a problem, providing Norse forward the arrangement fees to Nigeria as requested.