Reason why Jet2 have sensibly delayed the start of holidays and flying.
Heapy said that to resume on May 17, as previously planned: “We’d have to recruit loads of seasonal staff in the UK, loads of seasonal staff in every one of the 50-odd destinations we fly to, and we might not be flying there for two or three months.
“We’d have the cost base of a fully operational airline and potentially not flying. It’s just not sustainable.”

Jet2 could cancel everything until 2024 and put all of their staff on unpaid leave until then and people on this forum would still say they’re “making a good call” or “doing the right thing”. The fact remains that Jet2 are the only major U.K. airline that are entirely exposed to both the European market but also the decisions of the U.K. government. You don’t have to look far into Europe to see that easyJet, Ryanair and TUI have restarted a sizeable chunk of their operations from Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Scandinavia, which is at least bringing some revenue in. Virgin and BA (and TUI) will survive a poor summer on cargo revenue, as well as the long haul routes to the Caribbean and potentially the USA - two destinations that aren’t as seasonal as the majority of European beach destinations.

Even Jet2’s magic money tree will be looking pretty bare if they don’t get any revenue in this summer, and cancelling half the season before it’s even begun will hardly inspire hope, especially as a good chunk of their operation could be on the “green list” by mid June.

Vokes,
”Daft.
I think if I had a holiday booked in March, I’d be taking that refund and giving it straight to a competitor.”
Your comment about delaying the restart until April. Seems like your predictions aren’t spot on either.

Vokes55

You make a very good point regarding Jet2's exposure to the UK/ Europe holiday industry and comparing it to the spread risk that the likes of TUI, Ryanair and Easyjet enjoy. With the benefit of 20 / 20 hindsight (and don't we all wish we had that!) some expansion into the EU markets pre-Brexit might have been a good move, though probably at the time viewed as somewhat risky - better the devil you know and all that.

Canadian

Agree with you there Canadian
Not forgetting Volkes predictions back in October last year too......

”However not even the most brainwashed Jet2 fanboy or employee could deny that cancelling the largest market for October half term a month in advance was short sighted.”

I believe his business acumen was proved a little missing there too !

I think one of Jet2's strengths is the relative simplicity of their business model. There is always going to be a market from the UK to Europe for holidays. They know the market well.
At the moment the management team see so many opportunities for profitable growth in the UK there is no need to pour money into expansion abroad or long haul operations. I'm sure when the time comes, and the returns are right, they will move into these markets.

Do Jet2 have the scale to be having significant adventures in the EU post-Brexit ? Flybe tried Finland and it wasn't a happy experience

Their scope for "growth" which we all know is what the stock markets holy grail, is somewhat limited within the UK market, up against the likes of TUI. Jet2 have already based aircraft in Spain, so it wouldn't, for example have been that great a step to begin operating to places like Cologne, Stuttgart, Rotterdam, Billund - I've picked those places out, not because they are necessarily viable, but because they are in countries where the flay on words that is "Jet2" only really works in countries where there is a good working knowledge of the English language and it's nuances. Then of course the easiest market to enter would be Ireland, and having registered aircraft on the Irish (EU) register they could very much do an "Aer Lingus UK".

For now, rebuilding the business as and when covid restrictions allow has got to be their, and every other airlines number one priority, not potentially risky ventures into the unknown on vanity trips.

Bam Thwok

Not sure what your point is there, Jet2 missed an important week of revenue in half term by cancelling their Canaries flights prematurely. By the time Jet2 had managed to scramble together a flying program, the half term had finished and the second lockdown had begun. Their competitors were flying full aircraft to the Canaries in their absence. My point entirely, they’ve made this mistake before.

If the government say that travel to Malta, Faro, Madeira, the Canary Islands and some Greek islands are on the “green list” from May 17th, or even early June, the company are going to be once again scrambling to throw a flying program together and claw back some bookings, whilst their competitors have kept all flights/holidays, allowing those with existing bookings to go ahead and those with bookings to destinations that aren’t available the chance to change directly to holidays that are available.

January was a different story - Im not sure anybody expected the government to make it illegal to leave your own country - but what exactly did they achieve by cancelling until the end of March a week before everyone else, as it turned out? And cancelling a few holidays that barely break even in March is different to cancelling potentially 6 weeks of the season that keeps you in business.

People like to bleat on about them “putting the customer first”, but it I was a customer with a booking to somewhere that was likely to be accessible from June, I’d be, once again, taking my money to a competitor. I don’t think any other airlines or tour operators have been criticised by customers for waiting for official advise before cancelling their programs.

There’s the rub, If you didn’t think it was going to illegal to leave the country how can you be certain that we’ll be able to fly anywhere other than Gibraltar and Israel? The governments travel taskforce doesn’t have a great track record so far. We all know that all airlines are in self preservation mode, I don’t think this one is entirely about giving the customer what they want, it’s about making sure the company is around for long enough to take people on holiday next year (hopefully).

Im sure if travel to enough destinations is allowed you’ll see Jet2 flights/holidays back on sale quick enough, Tui won’t have it all to themselves:ok:

Because the government have announced a framework to restart travel, potentially from 17th May. A company doesn’t have to bring its entire workforce off furlough, entire fleet from storage in order to operate a partial program to wherever is permitted. Heaven forbid, Jet2 might actually try to capture part of a market that’s away from their bread and butter in order to bring in some much needed revenue.

You’re correct in saying that airlines are in preservation mode, which is why the majority are keeping cash in the business and bookings valid until it’s abundantly clear they cannot operate. Remember that the majority of working people will have annual leave booked that cannot be moved. It’s far easier to fill aircraft and hotel rooms by transferring existing bookings for “closed” destinations than it is from a standing start with no bookings after cancelling them all. TUI, easyJet and BA were flying full aircraft to the Canaries in October half term whilst Jet2 were scrambling to throw a program together.

You mean like charters? Not sure if they’re doing any presently but they’ve always been quite a lucrative aspect of the operation. I’m a bit bemused by your suggestion that they should scramble about for any old business away from their tried and tested model ‘to try get some cash in’.

I do appreciate this is an open discussion forum but comparing the operations of Jet2 to those of easyJet and TUi is like comparing apples with oranges. The people running Jet2 are highly competent and passionate about the business (traits which I m sure exist in other larger operators), which filters down through the staff. They will not have made the call to delay restarting the operation without very good reason, and they really are serious about looking after their customers! I suspect the risk of short notice travel restrictions due to the fluidity of the situation has sparked a cautious approach, it would likely cost more if they’re forced to repatriate travellers at the drop of a hat - for instance, just how simple do you think it is to get sufficient man-power off furlough and back into currency, and all those seasonal staff back up to a sufficient level, to cover all eventuality?

They’ve built their business through being highly cautious and it’s seen them well so far, there’s no reason to question their capability to deal with this and hit the ground running once there is more certainty in the travel market. Spreading themselves too thinly, and desperately entering unknown markets just to get the cash in just doesn’t strike me as something that would fit their business model.

Maybe they can’t just can’t be arsed to go back to flying? I’m sure they have their reasons. Which bit of the market do you suggest they capture anyway? Seems like they have been capturing some of the Tui market over the last few years.

pug

I think you’re living in a dream land. Jet2 won’t have flown a paying customer for almost 6 months. Unless they really do have a magic money tree, they won’t survive without a strong summer or diversifying their operation. Or is every other airline that has done just that wrong? I don’t think Virgin, BA and TUI imagined they’d be flying raw rubber, salmon, avocados, vaccines, troops, electronics and car parts across the world, but it’s making them money whilst their core business has been decimated.

If last year proved anything, it’s that a certain proportion of customers will go on holiday to wherever is possible. If that’s only going to be Malta, Portugal and Israel in June, the demand for these destinations is going to increase dramatically (I believe it already has). If Jet2 want to sit in hibernation whilst the rest of the industry eats their lunch then that’s up to them.

Aside from anything, a gradual restart is far less risky than their apparent Big Bang approach. I don’t expect many of the fan club to appreciate the cost and logistics of getting hundreds of pilots and thousands of cabin crew back to work. Every single pilot will require some sort of simulator training, the majority will now require line training. Simulator capacity restraints will almost certainly mean they have to operate non revenue flights to get pilots legal and current again. Operating a small program to Portugal and Malta or wherever else is possible from mid May or June would’ve allowed sufficient commercial sectors to get the majority of the workforce current and ready for a substantial restart, whenever that may be.

It’s all very well shouting “I’m sure they know what they’re doing”, but the same could be said for every other airline, the majority of which are doing the complete opposite.

I suspect it is easier to plan cashflow by cancelling the entire programme and utilising the furlough scheme as much as possible. Fairly fixed costs and a known contribution to staff wages. Trying to second guess which destinations will be "green" is impossible at this stage. The goal posts keep moving.

Vokes55

Youre wrong, I know they know what they’re doing. It’s ok for a faceless spotter on PPrune to suggest they could do better, but fact is they have weighed up the options and decided that it’s not right to re-start their operations until there is more certainty in the market. They are slowly starting to get flight crew back into currency now, they may well still be brokering charters which have always been lucrative in the past. However, their business model is such that they don’t outsource their overseas teams and thus they have clearly decided that to recruit seasonal staff and pay wages to people when there is a high chance they will be doing nothing is not viable - I’m sure there are many other variables which have led them to make this difficult decision too.

You may see TUI chomping at the bit to get flying, but you mustn’t forget that they own overseas hotels and they need to have them filled too. This is something Jet2 doesn’t do, which arguably provides them with much more flexibility contrary to what you are asserting.

Whilst I’m sure your concern is appreciated, perhaps leave it to the experts? After all, this is undoubtedly the most challenging period facing civil aviation since 1945! It goes without saying that they are suffering financially, as are many others in the industry, but they’re not scratching round behind the sofa for loose change just yet.

Rt Hon Jim Hacker MP

Hit the nail on the head! To press on with even a limited program which could prove more costly than keeping the aircraft on the ground is a risk they are clearly unwilling to take.

Vokes`s arguments I suggest are the same long held views as previously noted regarding the virus/pandemic restrictions & not having another outlet here now is using the Jet2 page to channel those views.

Vokes55

Not true. They had some recent charters from LGW.

Crikey, how Jet2 have not offered Vokes 55 a job to rescue them I don't know.
They're a pretty astute bunch at J2 and they would have done their calculations. Making good use of furlough. Not outsourcing so many ground handling services has worked for them & they all can be paid under furlough. The stop start situation others have been in is expensive.
We don't even know where the "green corridors" will be yet- but we do know they will come with hefty PCR tests for all destinations to get back to the UK.
Many of the elderly J2 fleet are owned & not under expensive leases like easyJet, their capitol value is low & they can be stored at low cost.
J2 have been very busy with numerous 737s doing crew training rather than sims- thus keeping the aircraft in active status.
They know what works for them & they will never be the same as TUI or easyJet- completely different set up.
Less leases, no outsourcing.
Try not to worry about J2 Voke55 I'm sure they'll manage without your incisive business acumen.
Relax & book your easyJet flight if that's what you want.

Jet2 are taking a conservative approach, they haven’t borrowed huge sums of money and are rightly anticipating the big draw on finance that restarting the operation will entail.
The bailouts and rights issues that some airlines and travel companies have signed up for will, if I can quote BoJo, risk making Jet2’s competitors “hostages to fortune”

Another expensive problem for operators was the Govt. announcing on a Thursday that travel to such and such a country would be banned in the next 48 hours....leaving holiday operators such as Jet 2 with customers stranded in the various resorts affected....meaning expensive empty legs to get them home.

Vokes55

I think TUI are more likely to survive a poor summer 2021 having announced a €350m convertible bonds offering on 9th April than by propping up the operation using passenger aircraft to fly freight.

Wow. So many nibbles from so many "experts" with their red and silver tinted glasses. I guess time will tell.

I would advise that some people read up on how the furlough scheme works though (hint: you can be un-furloughed and re-furloughed as and when required, and training can be carried out whilst furloughed).

Are you admitting to trolling?

Yes they can be furloughed and unfurloughed, which as it happens is what they are doing with a lot of their staff. They’re ramping up training in anticipation for a return to normal operations. This can be done at a pace to suit the business needs, whereas it’s not prudent to recruit hundreds of seasonal workers only to have them doing nothing.

Nobody is professing to be an expert, except Vokes55 who seems to have appointed their self as their unofficial strategist. Rather, we are trying to make the point that the experts have called it and we must trust that they know what they are doing with the information they have available. If the worst was to happen and the company didn’t survive then it may be reasonable to pick the bones, but it hasn’t and the company are still on a solid footing with strong leadership.

pug

And I'm the troll? It doesn't take an expert to know that an airline needs revenue to stay in business. Going by your (and others) rhetoric, they may as well cancel the entire Summer and come back next year. It's not like the uncertainty is going to disappear on June 24th.

After all, I'm sure a year without having to pay for seasonal staff is what will keep them in business.... :ugh:

To post something in order to illicit a ‘nibble’ is the definition of trolling.

We agree, the airline would be better off flying. In fact it’s pretty obvious that this whole pandemic thing has caused issues throughout the industry. These statements do not need to be validated by experts. The experts are the ones who have to mitigate as they see fit, and as has been pointed out to you, just because TUI are earning some revenue in cargo does not mean that it is a viable proposition for Jet2 to do the same.

They are making plans with the limited information available. If that means keeping their aircraft on the ground then that is their decision and one for which they are paid a lot to make. It’s not a ‘fanboyism’ to state the obvious!

I wish all companies and their employees well and hope that they are all able to start operations and generate sufficient revenue ASAP. I see no benefit in picking apart decisions made by any operator during these unprecedented times, I’m sure most people’s livelihoods on this forum rely on the industry bouncing back.

Perhaps a critical analysis of the leadership in Parliament is more appropriate at this time.

Gentlemen, of course we all know we are uncertain times. In fact we are in times of which no one alive, or dead for that matter, has has experienced such a time, and so we have many forecasts of what the future holds for us and airlines, of which we are all indebted. So let's give some slack to opinions being expressed.

I am pretty well relaxed that many will make it through these very trying times. As well as many here do not wish to paint a black future for us and our industry. It's difficult enough to keep a level head and seeing many negative posts doesn't help. No real industry person wishes another airline have difficulties but it's a fact that many are suffering. Let's not pick on Jet2 as an example for crowing from competitor airlines and just hope that we get some warmth and comfort from governments, mind you I don't see much of it.

One cannot level criticism at Jet2 as they move their goalposts, as they will continue to adjust to fluctuations in governments advice and travel restrictions. They are doing what any responsibile company would do. That's not to say that they have it right, but who has? There are limits to forecasts and as I stated we have never been in such a fluid moving marketplace.

I seriously hope that we san come out of these times with jobs for all aviators as they are my kind of people and feel privileged to be a airline pilot.

Good luck to all.

hec7or

There was a rather interesting article about that £350m in The Times in the week. Didn’t make pleasant reading for the TUI board.

The numbers look quite concerning for the TUI group.....
The group has received over €5bn in financial aid so far.
It’s net debt is currently standing over €7bn, putting the firm on a high net debt to earnings ratio of six times. Generally, three times is considered sustainable !
A sizeable amount of this debt will need to be repaid by July ‘22.
As of March, the group has liquidity of around €1.6bn with a monthly cash burn between €250m-€300m.

We all need to get summer 2021 up and running ASAP !

On travel and holidays people aren’t rational. Watch the ITV Heathrow programme - people having a go at airport staff because other Governments banned travel from the UK. When the inevitable happens and May/June holidays are cancelled it’ll be the airlines/operators that get the blame for ‘ruining summers’. Anyone that thinks there will be a substantial number of destinations available to visit in the near future, especially in Europe, is living in cloud cuckoo land.

So my view is Jet2 are doing the right, sensible and most sustainable thing

From experience J2 are indeed the most astute people I've come across in the industry. As a whole, it has proven time and time again that airlines are incredibly resilient, even more so during this crisis. Whether it be an ash crowd, severe weather, terrorism, natural disasters and a pandemic. Unfortunately that never seems to come at the betterment of the employee who continue to take haircut after haircut.

Its going to be a long process to return to some sort of financial normality - I actually think the difficulties for many carriers will come down the track when financial support ends, (oil prices are already back up to pre-pandemic levels) and passengers actually need to be flown. I like others have flights booked that were made 20 months ago. Obviously not the full amount of money is released by credit card companies until the flight takes place but what is available has probably already been spent many times over to retain an even keel.

As for the general public, airlines will be blamed because it fits the narrative of the right wing media... the government have to come out smelling of roses regardless.

This is where I think Jet2 are very clever though. No passengers money is counted as Jet2s cash until that passenger has flown on holiday. Essentially all their money is ring fenced until the holiday has taken place. That means Jet 2 can refund passengers promptly, and deposits amounts are not counted in cash flow figures.

TUI will not be able to trade their way out of debt. TCX failed with £1.5 billion. There will either be a dilution of shares, restructure or a sale of some assets to reduce the debt pile. I’m not wearing red and silver tinted spectacles either. TUI is a huge and diverse company but it is now heavily geared as a result of the pandemic.

300s back at Leeds?
 

Just spotted G-GDFT en route Murcia - Leeds due apox 14.00.
May have missed this - is that the first of the 300s to come back from storage?

It's actually the last of 7+ Boeing 737-300's to return to Leeds from storage in Spain.

We're wide awake. Not.
 

Thanks LBIA must try and stay awake!:*
Fingers crossed for Alicante in July and Bodrum in Sept.

LBIA

It was actually the 6th of the 7 300s left. FN is still in Almeria.

getting a sneaky, early free tan, I guess. :ok:

Anyone know when the remaining 757s will be returning from their "holiday" to Murcia? I know a few came back to MAN recently.

321's & Jet2
 

Anyone know if jet2 will expand their fleet of 321's after the recovery, seems quite odd if they only keep 2?