AirportPlanner1

I can see everything cancelled till May 1st.
pubs and hotels don’t expect to open till then either

Some weeks ago now, when there was a discussion was ongoing about flights to ski destinations I recall posting that you would have to be daft to book flights this winter and being roundly lambasted for it. Not wishing to blow my own trumpet, but it doesn't sound so daft now does it?

I, like HH6702, I wouldn't be booking anything before the start of the main summer season in May; it may well be that things get going before then, and if they do, and the covid situation is clearly on a sustained trajectory of improvement then booking at short notice may the best we can hope for.

What really worries me is how businesses such as Jet2, without large government loans, such as TUI has received from the German government, are going to survive, and if they do in what kind of shape and size. After all by Easter it will have been a full 12 months without anything approaching a normal revenue stream, and furloughs notwithstanding, still some pretty big overheads to finance.

Jet2 have a £300m drawdown facility that they haven't yet had to access. TUI have indeed been fortunate to receive German government grants and loans to the tune of several billion dollars. They've also just raised over half a billion through a share offer.

I'm sure Jet2 will look to raise further funds as and when they need to, but the fact they're not at that stage yet highlights the differences in the business models of the two companies. Business such as Jet2 also focus on a more assured income - the bog-standard summer holiday in the Med. They're fortunate to not have expensive assets tied up in market segments that will be slower to recover.

For both companies, the demand is there. It's just a case of riding out the lack of forward bookings until the consumer has confidence to put some money down.

Add into that they sold of Dart Logistics at nearly £100m last year, and raised capital through more shares raising £172 million ... I'm pretty confident. They could probably raise the same amount if not more by again releasing more shares.

And who, pray, is going to buy new shares in an airline / tour operator that cannot, with any certainty tell them when they are going to be back in business. I've heard of "speculate to accumulate" and I am not a risk taker with my hard earned money. But there is another adage, "don't invest money you can't afford to lose".

I'm not for a moment fingering Jet2 as a travel business in particular peril, all businesses in this sector must be on quite shaky ground - unless government's have shelled out loans a la Germany and TUI.

IAG and easyJet have just agreed some big loans, and TUI have just raised half a billion through a share issue haven’t they?

I think Jet2 will probably have to do the same eventually, but the fact they haven’t yet might point to them being more attractive to the banks and share purchasers?

I guess we’ll see anyway. If we get to the point where deaths haven’t come down by summer, then that means the vaccine hasn’t worked. And if the vaccine hasn’t worked then the entire country will reopen for business as there’s nothing else we can do, apart from wearing masks, keeping a distance, and washing hands regularly.

That is a scenario that doesn't bear thinking about.

Vokes55

Just because British citizens have been vaccinated does not mean they will be able to travel. There is little evidence yet to suggest a vaccinated person cannot catch covid and transmit it to other people. The only evidence is that the majority will not suffer badly. Given the low levels of vaccinations around Europe, No Nation will want to risk their population with further seeding of the new more contagious variant. So cancelling 10 weeks out seems like a good plan. If corridors do open up flights will be on sale sharpish.

I think Jet2 lose less money over the winter by parking up the fleet. Especially when you can then put pretty much the entire airline staff on furlough.

2Planks

Isreal - the world is watching them. And so far they've reported infections are on the downward trend as are hospitalisations and fatalities. Numbers to be released soon. So yes there is evidence that vaccination is working. Just our very arrogant Health Sectary will refuse to look at it.

As for the Variant .. all viruses mutate. And the Scientists have already said it maybe we have a yearly jab for the high risk groups and top the healthy population up bi or tri annually. As for the "contagious" of said variant - I don't believe a word of that. It's the MSM and Government propaganda at work.

I do agree however that cancelling out till end of March is very good business. Also allows them to take advantage of the furlough scheme for a good chunk of staff out until then. Or maybe bit before then.

You are aware that any airline can put their entire staff on furlough and unfurlough them at 24 hours notice for as little as one day, right? Do you think every airline that hasn’t cancelled flights 10 weeks in advance doesn’t have staff on furlough?

You would say it’s good business. Unfortunately it’s not good business, except for the other companies that’ll be hoovering up the business of those passengers who have leave booked in March and want a holiday, and are willing to take the chance that their holiday may be cancelled and they may have to get another refund closer to the time.

I have a flight booked for March 2nd, and have every intention of taking it. If the airline cancelled it now, 7 weeks in advance, I’d be rebooking with another airline almost instantly. Just because a few people on here believe “nobody is booking anything”, does mean it’s true.

Cancelling all flights and holidays 10 weeks in advance is daft, and I’ve yet to see an argument that says otherwise.

I'm as keen to travel and to fly again as anybody I know. But I have to disagree with you. Having spent far too much time over the past ten months hanging on phonelines listening to muzak, being passed from pillar to post, filling in claim forms and sending 'evidence of purchase', keeping track of future travel vouchers and sending dozens of emails - just why would I be tempted to put myself through anything like that again? When C-19 kicked in, I had 49 flights booked (plus accommodation, rail tickets, coach tickets). Other trips were planned too - fortunately, I didn't go ahead with booking those.

NONE of those 49 booked flights worked out for me. Two of the flights (MAN-KIR-MAN) went ahead as planned, but quarantine rules in Ireland meant that I was barred from travelling. Ryanair kept the money. The other 47 flights were unusable, either because they were cancelled outright or because some sectors within a multi-stop itinerary were cancelled. I did make four flights during the Summer - two rebooked return trips at short notice using voucher redemptions. EasyJet MAN-BFS-MAN went ahead at the third rebooking attempt. Beyond airlines, I also lost three booked cruises. One is in the hands of ABTA because the cruiseline went into liquidation - endless paperwork for that one, and told to expect six months wait time for reimbursement. One cancelled voyage to be refunded (still waiting). One rebooked to a year later but now unlikely to go ahead anyway. Two of my airline claims are still ongoing, including the lamentable Air Europa who have yet to refund a flight from April 2020 and claim they 'can't do anything' on the rare occasions they deign to answer the phone at all. There will be no new business put their way by me. Some other carriers genuinely did their best to be helpful - I'll remember that. My future business will favour them.

Now, I don't write any of that for the sake of complaining. Frustrating though they are, these are the very definition of 'first world problems'. I see people who have lost someone close to them because of this virus, or who have been ill themselves. I see others made redundant, furloughed, indebted, depressed, despairing. Especially within this industry. And I remind myself constantly how fortunate I am to enjoy reasonable health and financial security. I'm fine and busy in my own space until circumstances change. BUT ... why on Earth would I even begin to contemplate booking another bunch of flights to countries which very likely won't allow me in at all, and if they do I'll need a C-19 test certificate arranged at great hassle and expense very close to departure? Then possibly a repeat performance before flying back to the UK. And then I could be required to quarantine as well upon return. All in the hope of visiting a destination where everything is closed and one is required to be masked-up 24/7 (if allowed out and about at all)? No - the only new bookings I'll be making are those redeploying vouchers which would otherwise expire worthless. And I'll use those for flights as far into the future as are available for booking.

My real plan for S2021 is to wait for certainty. When a destination is reliably opened up for travel without off-the-scale red tape, then I will book to fly there at very short notice. Attempting to beat Grant Shapps' 'travel corridor hokey-kokey' again. Yes, that risks a higher price-point, but the downside of the alternatives makes the supplement worthwhile for me. I place a high value on my time, and all those hours wasted chasing refunds won't come back. If those short-notice flights are crazy-expensive, then I'll just pass on them anyway. It looks like my first few trips will have to be within the UK - maybe just within England only at this rate - and that is fine if so. My New Year's resolution is to avoid setting myself up for more avoidable soul-destroying admin paper chases.

I would suggest that there are many more folks out there thinking as I do. The only reasons I can think of for booking discretionary leisure flights in this climate is to redeem expiring travel vouchers or to secure very specific high-demand travel dates due to individual circumstances. Travel companies and airlines such as Jet2 are quite right to hunker down and conserve cash through this period of uncertainty. To answer the point made in the original quote, I'm not saying that nobody is booking anything. But I am saying that very few are - and why would they? Which means that most new bookings for our airlines are voucher redeployments which bring in no new cash. And in most cases, the airlines are having to allow date-changes for free to secure even that business.

Anyone who believes that the airlines should just carry on flying fresh air regardless is in fantasyland. They must conserve cash above all. It is survival mode out there. I think H1/2021 is a total write-off already. The populations of Continental Europe (amongst others) won't be sufficiently vaccinated to allow 'normality' to resume for many months yet. And I write that with a very heavy heart.

Maybe if you had someone in the middle of this in the health service, as I have and you see the impact on them handling all of this, you would worry less about not being able to book a few weeks in advance. There are some things in life more important and some that can wait.

True Blue - I have more than one family member in the middle of this in the NHS or equivalent (two working in A&E - though one of those in Australia), and I agree with your sentiment concerning the tough conditions they face. Hence my comment about flight booking concerns being the very definition of first world problems. But this is an Airlines and Airports forum. This is the place where it is legitimate to discuss forward business prospects for airlines and airports, and to contemplate when normal booking patterns may return. It is in no way disrespectful to the NHS to discuss these matters. Good folks employed by Jet2 and carriers like them are also very dedicated to their work, as are their airport colleagues. We do not have to disapprove of discussing issues affecting the travel and aviation sectors in an airline forum in order to demonstrate our support for NHS staff.

I think the question of not letting UK citizens in for Summer '21 will differ depending on the destination. For example, I think the Canaries will open up as soon as they can with a thorough testing program as mitigation. I don't think the Spanish government nor Brussels will be throwing sufficient support money at autonomous regions or EU countries who heavily depend on tourism. And for those places, there's no point having a lockdown if your citizens end up on the streets rioting against poverty, and also damaging your reputation as a tourist hub.

The key bit is all countries getting those at risk of death or serious illness vaccinated, repeated at regular intervals as necessary. Once the death rate and hospitalisation rate drops, the number of cases / contagiousness becomes irrelevant.

Easyjet cancelling all holidays until March...
 

...any thoughts Vokes55?

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/15/easyj...inue-13909569/

That's EASYJET not Jet2.:}
Try posting there?

Think you’ve missed the point of The Fiddler’s post........ go back to post #34.

Given today’s news I think everyone will be cancelling until the end of March, if not well into Easter.

You wait for proof of double vaccination to be a requirement of entry into another country and the current lockdown rules are loosened.

Jonty;

Well, we're booked for Rhodes on 30th April, see how that one goes.... :)

Interesting question maybe, but could there be any potential for Jet2 somewhere down the line picking up some of Norwegian's ex-Dreamliners and starting a long-haul programme?

I think these would be a good fit for Jet2 to open up Florida, Mexico, Jamaica, Dom Rep. etc. from primarily MAN, STN and BHX perhaps. They've got good geographical presence through the UK now on short-haul holidays and the leisure market is looking far more encouraging than most for any recovery.

Or is the long-haul prospect, even for the package holiday market, too much of a risk in the short-medium term with others retrenching and too much of a cost burden for Jet2 to even consider at the moment? Thoughts?

Perhaps Jet2 should be aiming to see their short haul fleet at least 80 % busy before committing money to expansion ?

The management at Jet2 are quite conservative (small c) and careful. They're also pretty canny and ready if an opportunity arises. Of the UK's airlines, which one isn't bleating on about support or borrowing huge sums to stay afloat yet? If this craziness goes on into the late Summer, they might be the only airline still left....

Why would Jet2 want to buy/lease a very expensive aircraft?
When there are a lot of other types a lot cheaper to acquire, plus some existing crews could cross fly after completing a type course.

What are these other cheaper types currently available you talk of?

Think most people in the industry agree that Short Haul will recover a lot quicker. Cant see any company really putting much in to Long Haul before 2022 at the earliest. This is going to be a protracted recovery and all companies priority will be to get the cash in by doing what they do best rather than new risks and ventures

CabinCrewe
It would be the A330 and there are plenty available, including some young airframes.

trouble is Norwegian own quite a few of their 788 and 789, thus they have to find a leasing company to buy them (presumably at an on paper loss) who will then lease them on to another airline. Some are still undergoing engine rectification as well I believe. I would have thought they'll be picked up by an airline looking to downsize 777 or similar since they are nice fairly new aircraft, but wouldn't see it as a short term risk for Jet2.

Having said that, pre-pandemic, they chose to take the ex Thomas Cook A321 aircraft primarily because they were available at the right price, since it was a significant move away from their otherwise B737-800 fleet....

I would have thought the 787’s would be more attractive to an airline like Condor (who at some point need to refleet), or an airline which needs smaller long haul aircraft.

Neos now have an ex Norwegian -900.

..... and another making two.

You have to think that "some point" needs to be quite soon, as I don't think any of Condor's 763's are younger than about 22, and a few quite a bit older.

You would also think that if Jet2 were to be venturing into long-haul, they would do that first by leveraging their existing relationship with AirTanker for 330's (saying that without any knowledge of how that stacks-up financially)

You have to think that "some point" needs to be quite soon, as I don't think any of Condor's 763's are younger than about 22, and a few quite a bit older.
and - Neos now have an ex Norwegian 787-9 (x 2)

Neos's own 787's are very similar to Norwegians' and have the same Premium Economy seat.

Condor have not made any decisions on their 767 replacement - Having emerged from the Thomas Cook collapse and failed LOT takeover, then Covid-19, it seems the strong German brand of Condor continues on after 65 years.
787's have been mooted but deemed too expensive by Condor (although that may alter with second hand 787's possibly coming along)
They felt the A350 was too big so Airbus have been offering them the latest and much cheaper A330NEO 800 series which fulfils all the 767 missions.
Condor have 3 classes in their 767's Business Comfort Class, Premium and Economy.

I would imagine Jet2 are very pleased they did not purchase the 737 MAX types - Once post Covid recovery for holidays is fully underway (summer 2022 we hope) then demand will out sell availability, and no doubt they will look at larger types again for their peak routes like Palma, Rhodes and the Canaries.
Again they were prudent to get rid of the A330 leases and not made any advance purchases.

I don’t think there is any rush at the moment things are not going to be good til next year At earliest & even then not sure about long haul- just my opinion

I agree. That will be the game changer to really get things going again. Spain and Greece are pushing heavily for this. I think the odds are that they will have this in place by the start of the summer season.

Needs to be an internationally recoognised format. The concern for me and civil aviation, is the importation of new mutations if and when restrictions are lifted. As you can still carry, will any country have the balls to permit partial opening of borders?

FRatSTN

Personally, I think Jet2 will be better off using A330's to dip their toe into the long-haul market if they so desired. It's a known type to them and if they could seek to utilise the same arrangements as they have done in the past with Air Tanker, there's less risk involved whilst they work out if the attempt to diversify is successful or if it's best left served to others. The 787's may have low operating costs being a new generation aircraft, but I expect the acquisition and leasing costs for them to be expensive.

Jet2 announce Athens for 2022 from MAN BHX and STN as well as MAN - TLS.

I personally never saw Athens coming !!

Good luck to Jet2 on that route