It was inevitable that there were going to be major outbreaks at universities, as I was following what was happening on NBC nightly news when the American universities went back a month earlier. It was also inevitable that there was going to be a second wave in the general population here after seeing the signs in much of Europe. When people mix the virus eventually spreads, it is as simple as that. If people stop mixing like in the first lock down cases drop. The hard bit for all governments around the world is getting the balance right, which is not helped in our case by those that ignore the rules and a lack of testing and tracing.

With a virus that is once again out of control there will be even less inclination for the travelling public to sit next to a random stranger for a few hours when we are all told to socially distance to help protect ourselves. The reasons for that reluctance will include the possibility of death, getting long Covid and giving it to older family members. Obviously some will consider the risks as acceptable but most won’t. Getting a test at the airport reduces the quarantine period but offers little else in the way of comfort.

IATA - Research Points to Low Risk for COVID-19 Transmission Inflight

Probably not the most unbiased source, but I'll leave it to others to analyse their methodology...

...so the 20+ infections on that infamous Zakynthos flight definitely didn't happen then....

People don’t sit still, they move around the aircraft, use the toilet, go to the overhead luggage locker and eat and drink. Also the filtering system apparently doesn’t work without engine power which isn’t great of you are on stand for half an hour. The safest place has been reported to be a window seat.

No, it doesn't mean that - just that the probability that it happened is infinitesimally small. :O

I am a cynic, and to me the return of the Greek Islands to quarantine free status probably has more to do with the 18 -30 crowd being back in education, college or University, and of course work making the Islands a less risky place to return from that they were when the grown up "children" were partying; rather then any large reduction in local transmission rates.

Fat lot of good it does for the travel industry with the summer season having got 3 weeks left to go.

214 Countries and Territories around the world have this Lurgy and we are still implementing travel bans,corridors and quarantine etc.You can't even travel across the UK without bumping into a circuit-breaker!

Hence why would Govt spen millions when it is not needed yet for aviation. People are not flying.

Of course it is. Everything the government is doing is perception rather than scientifically based. You can go to the Royal Albert Hall indoors but you cannot go to an outdoor Wembley stadium.

For what it’s worth. I don’t think there have been any significant outbreaks involving aircrew on board flights (happy to be proved otherwise if there is evidence or not out there).

As for the government not bailing out airlines - well, the well is starting to run dry. I’d quite like to have a career in this industry. These cash reserves are going to be running seriously short without injections in the next few months.

A lot of the problems of this summer have been deferred down the road to next year: there’s going to be some seriously difficult choices coming executives way.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr...TwYzk_qaSCXCx4


Puts a little perspective on flying during the pandemic

50/100,000 over 14 days rules out most of Europe at the moment. Can’t see familes paying for tests at point of departure to go on holiday. It’s basically a non-starter.

So over half of the worlds cases occurred on just one TUI flight then? So who has written this independent report? Why the airline manufacturers including Boeing.

The people infected on the TUI flight didn’t get it from the flight. They got it in the resort.

But this doesn't fit the narrative as while thouasands travel London Underground every day the transmission will be blamed on people meeting others in a pub, when it is an aircraft it is the airline at fault. London underground system of course has "clean" filtered air just like a morning in the mountains.

Travel Industry is dead, 2022 it might recover but the continued scaremongering may make that a struggle.

Racedo is right to be pessimistic. There are differences in facts and perceptions. The public need to "feel" safety whether or not based on fact.
To bring confidence in air travel, the industry needs to work on enhancing personal space. This means a better way of managing security screening, avoiding herds in snake queues. The same at border controls. It means better boarding & disembarkation systems. It means more space, less people on board- less of the cramming maximum numbers in a metal tube. Obviously this comes at a cost and would force the end of ridiculously over low priced tickets. Surely it would be better to transport less people but more comfortably at a higher cost than hardly any people at all. In the short term personal space is going to be the only way to bring back confidence in air travel.

About a month ago, Easyjet had a policy that on arrival, pax would leave the aircraft one row at a time, so as to ensure social distancing. Last week, that policy had been effectively abandoned with the usual rush for the exit when the seatbelt sign was turned off

The only way to build confidence amongst pax, is to either a) have a vaccine, b) provide PCR or antigen tests with suitable paperwork near a person's home shortly before departure for free or at minimal cost (and this will fail if Govt require 2 tests spaced out a week apart to avoid quarantine), or c) have sufficiently low numbers of cases in both origin and destination that people believe the risk of quarantine anywhere is extremely low.

Anything about publicising how armrests are disinfected, or spacing people out at security queues is purely symbolic. There is enormous overcapacity of aircraft right now - the only way to persuade airlines to raise fares significantly is if a large number of major airlines go bankrupt... or Govt pass laws requiring aircraft fly at no more than maybe 33% of seat capacity

I hate to say it, but the travel industry right now is not a priority for Govts around the world

I have zero intention of taking a vaccine until 2-3 years in use. I am not the only one.

10 days after a paperwork requirement there will be people showing up at airports with fake paperwork.


Number of cases in irrelevant, number of people who require hospital ICU is.

As of now there are 37.5 Million reported cases and 1.1 million deaths, assumming because of lack of testing that the cases are double the testing then a 1.5% fatality rate or less of infected people is destroying economies.

Using the worldometer stats https://www.worldometers.info/corona...=homeAdvegas1? that shows a death rate of 4% from 29 million cases.

I use total number of positive cases and because testing did not happen and still doesn't in many cases then doubling number of positive cases is not unreasonable. Two colleagues both had it, both recovered and neither had a test in March as they told to stay at home for 14 days, there will be many..

Some countries require that people arriving from (or to) a region where yellow fever is endemic must show proof of having had a yellow fever vaccine as a condition of entry to the country. No proof = no entry or immigration official does vaccine on the spot

Assuming a Covid vaccine is created, I wonder if a proof of vaccine might effectively become a requirement to travel internationally. The documentary proof will of course presumably be something difficult to forge...

Thoughts ?

Good plan, but won't happen.

It's a possibility. Consider a microchip implanted which can be updated with your personal health data. Without the data which could be scanned at airports, no travel. The WHO would be inclined to develop such a scheme.

How many airports and airlines will still be around in 2022?

The crazy self isolation policy makes little sense. If you live in Bournemouth I'd say it would be much more important to self isolate if you have visited Liverpool rather than Mykonos. Places that have the virus best under control- Jersey, Malaysia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore etc all have airport testing on arrival, with results in most cases within 12 hours. All require some form of isolation even in negative and/or re testing after 5 days. Travel policy here remains confused in all forms of transport, after 7 months policy is still being made on the hoof.

LHR not in Europe`s Top Ten busiest.

Again, even amongst contributors on here, all emphasis seems to focus first and foremost on measures to reassure the most neurotic of coronaphobes. They will be the last to resume traveling whatever the industry does. A hardcore of those who have succumbed to the daily doses of media-driven coronapanic will never fly again. Period. The industry must stop shaping its policies around appeasing these most squeamish outliers and instead consider what those comprising the reasonable mass market are asking of them. Including cutting red-tape and ditching practically useless virtue-signalling "safety measures". Often yours for a substantial additional fee. So you want to see airliners restricted to 30% loads by government mandate? Well, if you can afford the fares which will arise from that, you go off and hire yourself a private CitationJet. Let the rest of us exercise our common sense. Recent scientific evidence indicates that airliner cabins are not leading vectors for spreading C-19 infection.

There just seems to be a noisy minority who demand that everybody else's lifestyle choices be restricted / banned / priced out of reach so that should they ever muster the courage to move their a*** out of their armchair they can feel "safe". Those people are not reasonable. They will never feel "safe". They aren't the ones who will return to flying. And that's fine. Each to their own. But that has to include not restricting the sensible silent majority with increasingly absurd and expensive "safety measures".

Coronaphobia will not stop me from traveling, though as with everybody else, draconian restrictions will (and continue to do so). I'm not complacent about C-19; I certainly don't want to catch it. But nor do I wish to be run over by a bus - though I'm not planning to avoid bus stations to improve my chances. Nor do I wish to be struck down by lightning - but I'm not going to lock myself away indoors forever to dodge that possibility either. Life comes with risk. Each individual must recognise their own tolerance level and manage their lives around the level of risk which works for them and their personal circumstances.

I see lots of well-intentioned "safety measures" intended to "reassure" me, but too often they leave me either appalled or scratching my head in bemusement. Today I read that UK rail operators will be leaving train windows open through the winter to discourage the spread of C-19. Well, gee thanks, rail bosses! I'm sure the NHS will be super-delighted by the flood of additional cold and pneumonia cases your new policy will harvest for them. But they're fine, cos they're not covid. Airport operators proudly circulate photos of swathes of taped-off seating to "reassure" me. Slight problem: I have an arthritic knee and WILL BE SURE TO AVOID airports which I know to have taped off their seating. Are these airports run by complete halfwits? What morons are promulgating these completely mad ideas to "reassure" frequent travellers like me? Do they believe that C-19 is suddenly the only medical issue which travellers have to consider in the course of their everyday lives? What about those whose conditions mean they need to use the lavatory more often (closed due to covid)? What about passengers who need to use an ATM in arrivals ... deactivated, because of course you will catch covid from typing in your pin number? Getting stuck overnight with no local currency in an airport comes with no medical implications at all, right? You want to buy food? How mad! Don't you know that you could catch covid in a shop or a restaurant ... but of course if you're diabetic and we induce a serious medical crisis by derailing your dietary routine, that is just tough luck. Covid "reassurance" uber alles! You're free to die of anything else. Or merely suffer (trivial if not covid-induced).

Finally - but not least - the resort experience. Spanish and Italian politicians - amongst others - are keen to "reassure" me that it is "safe" to holiday there. By - amongst other things - insisting that every moment spent outside your private space must come with wearing a muzzle on pain of large fines. In a hot climate! Well I don't know about you, but I go on holiday to enjoy myself (tough concept for coronaphobes and "experts" to grasp, I know). Perma-bemuzzlement in tropical heat and enjoyable vacations simply cannot co-exist. I'll obediently wear a muzzle for the greater good in a crowded public space, but not out and about hiking on a deserted hillside? As long as these masters of "reassurance" are mandating "reassuring" measures of this sort, they can shove their "luxury vacations" right where the sun don't shine. Not one cent of mine will go towards a "holiday" like that. Or one where I'm forbidden to meet anybody new ... cos they have to stand too far away from me at all times. I presume that everyone who has ever kissed someone they met for the first time on holiday has already died of covid? Of course, this isn't a problem for me. Way too ugly. No chance of a kiss (unless arrest follows shortly afterwards). But I do spare a thought for those who might like to meet someone special whilst away?

I call upon airline and travel industry execs to wake up to what the mass-market / frequent travellers really want. And lobby the 650 Westminster Mental Patients (MP's) accordingly. Stop pandering to extreme coronaphobes who will still be hiding away a decade from now whatever you do. They are not your customers. They are not the flying public.

As one of your regular customers (on the rare occasions my flights aren't cancelled), my needs are simple. I want my travel insurance policy to be valid. I don't want to be quarantined (barring upon receipt of a positive C-19 test). I want to be able to sit down in an airport departure lounge. I want to be able to buy food and use an ATM. I want to be able to remove my muzzle in wide-open spaces with few people around. I don't want even more red-tape and form-filling queues designed to offer the illusion of "enhanced safety".

I know. I guess I'm just unreasonable! Forget everything I said and just shut down the world again.

Blimey one of the Tory Ultras has just swung by again...

The only benefit being the diatribe is so long most will zone out half way through even the first paragraph.

OK. Assuming you mean me, what is "ultra" about speaking up for people who have arthritis and need seating, who need to use the loo more than most, or who don't want to catch pneumonia from open train windows in the depths of Winter? What is "ultra" about wanting valid travel insurance, or no requirement to quarantine when representing negligible risk? Or even to use an ATM or buy a snack? Yes, the only explanation for rooting for these unreasonable things is a leaning towards hard right politics, right? Well you just keep telling yourself that.

Perhaps you'd prefer an "ultra" restrictive lockdown police state? Oh ... hang on ... BOBBY!!!

Play ball not man.

Some of what you said I diagree with but a lot I agree with.

Life is being shut down when no guarantee measures will work .

And that is fine. Grounds for debate as it should be. But as an industry, this is a conversation which we urgently need to have. We can't just keep bowing down to the demands of the most shrill promoters of coronapanic for ever more. This industry is dying before our eyes. And the sacrifice serves virtue-signalling political gesture over hard science.

Ozzy is right. Does he work for Wizzair, I wonder?

They have provided the services customers want, expanded their schedule, allowed people to travel on full aircraft, and hopefully benefited hugely from their approach. Those airlines with a more timid approach (TUI, Easy) are likely to lose market share, and possibly put their own survival at risk.

Meanwhile, the spread of the virus is getting even more out of control in many countries. Most affected age group 18-29, probably those who are still travelling the most!

Most infected group numerically, not most affected by the symptoms. 99%+ of them recover easily, and many of them are asymptomatic throughout the episode. One could argue that this demographic is contributing most towards the desirable goal of herd immunity.

Pistonprop
I have travelled for work all through this, but I am now blocked due to coming from West Yorkshire and can not return to Germany where I work. I would suggest the surge in the virus is due to a younger generation going back to uni / school, and also English pub / nightclub culture, not people getting on aeroplanes. I have not been in a UK pub since Feb, and as for UK nightclubs that ship sailed years ago, though I have been to various bars / restaurants in Munich.
Cheers
Mr Mac

I have just listened to 'Inside Science' on BBC R4 presented by Adam Rutherford who had CV19 and is now suffering from 'Long Covid'. He is only 45. The complications and longer term effects are pretty worrying. Give it a listen on BBC Sounds or another podcast source.

While we are being advised to work from home if we can and not to use public transport, as the virus spreads through close contact, the view from some here is that social distancing should be ignored when passing through airports, sitting on aircraft and then standing on airside buses with your nose pressed against the next passenger. Fair enough when social distancing isn’t practical when flying. The trouble is many potential passengers freak out at that idea.

The government hasn’t banned air travel. If I want to travel to Spain I still can. If I want a beer in a Liverpool pub I cannot do it.

Post viral issues. Whatever way they want to dress it up, it isn't unique to Covid, just nobody ever cared before because nobody fixated so much on a single medical issue.