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-   -   Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/629647-coronavirus-impact-air-travel.html)

840 26th Feb 2020 10:42


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10696349)
If it is a one off and nobody follows then maybe, however likely the message will permeate quickly and others will do similar.

And then you have to start wondering who can and can't ride it out.

On paper, you'd have to worry for Alitalia considering the geographic concentration of Coronavirus and their precarious pre-existing financial condition, but I've given up predicting that they will go out of business.

alm1 26th Feb 2020 11:18

Todays Ryanair flight Kaunas-Milan Malpensa had only about 30 pax, others did not show up:
https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lith....d?id=83629045
(image in the linked article shows everything)


racedo 26th Feb 2020 12:13


Originally Posted by 840 (Post 10696379)
And then you have to start wondering who can and can't ride it out.

Business wise you have to assume most businesses will not be able to ride it out. Same people wise as business will stop paying people and then the whole pyramid could come crashing down.

Assumme it took 6 months to get it under control, it would take a few years for confidence to return.


On paper, you'd have to worry for Alitalia considering the geographic concentration of Coronavirus and their precarious pre-existing financial condition, but I've given up predicting that they will go out of business.
2009/10 all over again but worse.

ATNotts 26th Feb 2020 12:49

If the hysterical scenarios that have been reported in the press and media come anywhere near to fruition I would have thought that the leisure airline industry could be in severe difficulties, especially those companies who's business is vertically integrated operating hotels and airlines. If, heaven forbid, the virus developed during the summer months and stopped travel between countries such as Spain and Turkey and the rest of Europe it could be very serious financially.

Hopefully the media and WHO are over egging the pudding, which I think to be honest is a more likely scenario, and in 12 months time we'll be wondering what the fuss was about, as we did, essentially over the swine flu nonsense of about 10 years ago.

Vokes55 26th Feb 2020 13:40


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10696468)
, and in 12 months time we'll be wondering what the fuss was about, as we did, essentially over the swine flu nonsense of about 10 years ago.

Swine flu, bird flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola* ... have I forgotten any?

Racedo, you seem like the kind of person that would wear his bicycle helmet when walking out the front door, in case a tile will fall and hit you on the head.

Not complaining though. Whilst you and the rest of the over-dramatic people of this world take shelter in your COVID bunkers, the rest of us can enjoy the world at a more sensible population level**, safe in the knowledge that those brave folk who have ventured out into the gauntlet of this apocalyptic disease have probably learnt how to wash their hands and improve their basic personal hygiene.


*unlike the rest, and Coronavirus, this one actually was a deadly disease. However the mass panic of Ebola spreading to all corners of the world never materialised

**before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, that’s in reference to people staying out of public places, not advocating that a disease killing lots of people is a positive

840 26th Feb 2020 15:16

There's quite a difference between this and the viruses you list there.

This one spreads moderately easily, but doesn't have a massively high mortality rate.

Those ones all had very high mortality, but didn't spread very easily at all.

Governments have to decide if these risks are equivalent.

Employers will also keep an eye on whether employees may be out for one month plus.

LTNman 26th Feb 2020 15:29

All I see is a virus that is now spreading abound the world at an alarming rate. Can't remember what channel I was watching but in their example an infected person sits on a park bench, coughs into his hand and then puts his hand on the park bench arm and then walks off. A few minutes later another person comes along, sits down and puts her hand on the arm of the same bench. A few minutes later she rubs her eyes. She has now become infected despite sitting on her own and is incubating the virus.

If doctors can get it where hygiene is ingrained into them then no one is safe.

As the days go on air travel is going to be less palatable in many areas of the world including Europe. Yes people might over react but the fear of dying is a powerful force.

racedo 26th Feb 2020 15:57


Originally Posted by Vokes55 (Post 10696502)
Swine flu, bird flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola* ... have I forgotten any?

Racedo, you seem like the kind of person that would wear his bicycle helmet when walking out the front door, in case a tile will fall and hit you on the head.

Not complaining though. Whilst you and the rest of the over-dramatic people of this world take shelter in your COVID bunkers, the rest of us can enjoy the world at a more sensible population level**, safe in the knowledge that those brave folk who have ventured out into the gauntlet of this apocalyptic disease have probably learnt how to wash their hands and improve their basic personal hygiene.


*unlike the rest, and Coronavirus, this one actually was a deadly disease. However the mass panic of Ebola spreading to all corners of the world never materialised

**before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, that’s in reference to people staying out of public places, not advocating that a disease killing lots of people is a positive

No need for personal digs.............. this is not JB.

Topic is impact on Air Travel. Since starting the thread it is already evident it is having an effect, Internal Chinese air travel has collapsed, air travel to neighbouring countrys has massively declined and even now it has started at a small scale to affect Intra European travel with more to come.

Impact will be very quickly felt on people's jobs as easy to park aircraft and renegotiate with Lessors to pay when normality comes back at penalty, however many people will get laid off as employers will not pay when no one travelling.

Everything is related because logistics has an issue on Chinese sourcing either by air or seas, this impacts jobs in wider economy and business can't sell / assemble, can't pay wages so how do you pay rent / mortgage / food bill.

In an interconnected world everybody will suffer. It may be that it is not as bad as suggested, yippee but highlighting potential impact is just doing that, putting head in sand claiming X disease never happened is great. In 1918 Flu was not expected to be worse that other years, between 1918-20 100 million people died of Spanish flu, 1 was my GG Father.

eu01 26th Feb 2020 16:00

Panic or not, the airlines face a question of profitability. Having just 30 pax on board Ryanair might still be able to make ends meet, almost all tickets were sold as non-returnable. It's for now, but in a week or two the situation will change, there will be much less current revenue and empty seats will mean losses. Knowing Ryanair, I'd expect some fast moves to limit them.

racedo 26th Feb 2020 16:01


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10696565)
As the days go on air travel is going to be less palatable in many areas of the world including Europe. Yes people might over react but the fear of dying is a powerful force.

Correct and 2020 could be a year where travel is less than 10 years ago.

6 Nations games already off, potentially Cheltenham, Seria A games, Euro2020, Olympics and many more. Jobs in Aviation will disappear plus in destination tourism.

racedo 26th Feb 2020 16:14


Originally Posted by eu01 (Post 10696588)
Panic or not, the airlines face a question of profitability. Having just 30 pax on board Ryanair might still be able to make ends meet, almost all tickets were sold as non-returnable. It's for now, but in a week or two the situation will change, there will be much less current revenue and empty seats will mean losses. Knowing Ryanair, I'd expect some fast moves to limit them.

I would agree as they will park up aircraft, lay off people and sit it out. 737Max less aircraft helps them because the compensation will be worked out when aircraft is available so that is a minimum 18 month penalty. Only fly in the ointment is will people want to travel but 1p /1c fares will change that.

eu01 27th Feb 2020 09:26

Coronavirus: Wizz Air Suspends All Flights to Italy

eu01 27th Feb 2020 10:36

Fraport's message published today:

The coronavirus outbreak is taking a heavy toll on aviation worldwide. Passenger and cargo traffic with China, and Asia overall, has already slumped massively. This is also having a major impact on Frankfurt Airport’s hub operations – affecting all business areas from flight operations to ground handling, cargo and retail. To counteract this situation, Fraport is responding quickly with a range of measures to lower costs and to adjust staff deployment to this reduced demand.

Currently, all major costs are being reviewed closely. New staff hires at Fraport AG will only be possible in exceptional and justified cases. Employees in both administrative and operational jobs have been offered voluntary unpaid vacation or temporary reduced working hours – where this is compatible with operational requirements. Fraport is monitoring these measures continuously and will make modifications if required. /.../

It is too early to reliably forecast the duration and extent of flight cancellations, as well as the resulting decline in traffic volumes. Therefore, it is not yet possible to estimate the impact on our business.

LTNman 27th Feb 2020 11:10

Who in their right mind is going to book a holiday to Northern Italy? Tourist attractions closed and also risk getting infected or being locked in a hotel room for 2 weeks. It's like a big game of chance. No thanks

nwoody2001 27th Feb 2020 11:33

Me....!


davidjohnson6 27th Feb 2020 13:58


Originally Posted by eu01 (Post 10697118)

The Wizzair website seems to show that frequencies have been reduced in March, but I'm not sure it's correct to say all flights are suspended

racedo 27th Feb 2020 14:03


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10697197)
Who in their right mind is going to book a holiday to Northern Italy? Tourist attractions closed and also risk getting infected or being locked in a hotel room for 2 weeks. It's like a big game of chance. No thanks

No more of a big chance than flying, if your number is up, it is up. Course bit of a bitch if your number is not up but the Pilots is................ thems the odds.

At least if you go there will be no queing.

racedo 27th Feb 2020 14:04


Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 (Post 10697310)
The Wizzair website seems to show that frequencies have been reduced in March, but I'm not sure it's correct to say all flights are suspended

Danger here is news media report it as such and everybody reacts to it.

nowhereasfiled 27th Feb 2020 14:32


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10697197)
Who in their right mind is going to book a holiday to Northern Italy? Tourist attractions closed and also risk getting infected or being locked in a hotel room for 2 weeks. It's like a big game of chance. No thanks

Me. Swiped some Ryanair flights to Milan for a fiver next weekend. Will be happy to make the most of having the city to ourselves, no queues at the bar, every cloud and all that.

atpcliff 27th Feb 2020 16:12

Thailand's Health Minister recommended that no one travel.
Tourism is about 20% of Thailand's GDP.


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