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-   -   Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/629647-coronavirus-impact-air-travel.html)

LTNman 27th Feb 2020 16:13

No queues because nothing will be open.

racedo 27th Feb 2020 16:22

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/El...-impact-619080

EL AL cancels flights to Italy and Thailand.

nowhereasfiled 27th Feb 2020 18:50


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10697430)
No queues because nothing will be open.

bit of coronavirus a few miles away and Milan becomes the new Chernobyl

Jonty 27th Feb 2020 19:05


Originally Posted by atpcliff (Post 10697429)
Thailand's Health Minister recommended that no one travel.
Tourism is about 20% of Thailand's GDP.

He’s telling his own citizens not to travel abroad, he’s not saying “don’t come to Thailand”. One of the latest cases there is of a Thai citizen that traveled to Japan.

Jonty 27th Feb 2020 19:06


Originally Posted by nowhereasfiled (Post 10697542)
bit of coronavirus a few miles away and Milan becomes the new Chernobyl

The world has officially gone nuts!

LTNman 27th Feb 2020 20:07

From the BBC


The latest positive test comes after England's chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, warned onward transmission of the virus between people in the UK was "just a matter of time".
He said if the outbreak intensifies, it may be necessary to close schools or stop mass gatherings of people for "quite a long period of time, probably more than two months".

Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office has been in communication with local authorities about their "mass death preparedness", BBC Newsnight understands. including where they might locate new - perhaps mass - burial sites.
If it gets into the U.K. as reported above airports will be closed down.

davidjohnson6 27th Feb 2020 21:02

Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory

Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels

BRUpax 27th Feb 2020 21:11

"mass death preparedness"

Have there been any mass deaths anywhere so far? The worst affected to date is China. As I write this the count (of deaths) is 2747. What is the population of China?!


ZFT 27th Feb 2020 21:16


Originally Posted by atpcliff (Post 10697429)
Thailand's Health Minister recommended that no one travel.
Tourism is about 20% of Thailand's GDP.

Where did you read that?

racedo 27th Feb 2020 21:31


Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 (Post 10697635)
Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory

That is up to 500,000 dead..................... or more than total WW2 casualties.

Point will be trhat it would not be even spread around country, some towns could lose 40% of population where some lose a handful. Then there is the recovery of those infected, don't over rule survivors guilt that will be in the mine.


Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels
If closed down you may reduce population loss from 500,000 to 100,000, infection rate from 60% to 20%. Would you suggest not doing it ?
Of course some states may get a hold of it and release it in a city of their enemies to destroy.

Potentially death rate could be very high as who would make and distributes food ? Also likely martial law in UK would need to be declared. Hey I point worst case scenario but imagine you have food stocked up, neighbours don't and are hungry.

racedo 27th Feb 2020 21:33


Originally Posted by ZFT (Post 10697647)
Where did you read that?

https://www.wttc.org/about/media-cen...wttc-research/

This gives the figure and it supports 6 million jobs.

ZFT 27th Feb 2020 22:00


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10697661)
https://www.wttc.org/about/media-cen...wttc-research/

This gives the figure and it supports 6 million jobs.

Sorry. To be clear, that I understood. It was the don't travel to Thailand fake news element I was querying

Thanks

racedo 27th Feb 2020 22:08


Originally Posted by ZFT (Post 10697683)
Sorry. To be clear, that I understood. It was the don't travel to Thailand fake news element I was querying

Thanks

Ah ok...................... didn't look for that but as 27% of tourism industry is from China then could understand it

ZFT 28th Feb 2020 00:34


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10697687)
Ah ok...................... didn't look for that but as 27% of tourism industry is from China then could understand it

No argument with that. Tourism is dead here at present

Jonty 28th Feb 2020 06:26


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10697656)
That is up to 500,000 dead..................... or more than total WW2 casualties.

Point will be trhat it would not be even spread around country, some towns could lose 40% of population where some lose a handful. Then there is the recovery of those infected, don't over rule survivors guilt that will be in the mine.



If closed down you may reduce population loss from 500,000 to 100,000, infection rate from 60% to 20%. Would you suggest not doing it ?
Of course some states may get a hold of it and release it in a city of their enemies to destroy.

Potentially death rate could be very high as who would make and distributes food ? Also likely martial law in UK would need to be declared. Hey I point worst case scenario but imagine you have food stocked up, neighbours don't and are hungry.

Don’t forget that the vast majority of those that will die will be the old and those in ill health already. The vast majority of “economically active” people will have very mild symptoms, more akin to a mild cold. Most wouldn’t even know they had it, and would go about their daily business like they do now.
So I don't see your “worst case scenario” as any sort of reality.

Mr Mac 28th Feb 2020 08:06

Jonty
Racedo lives in "Darkest Surrey", and judging by the tone of his posts on quite a few subjects, he also personally seems to inhabit quite a dark space ! Keep calm and carry on as you say, and remember nobody lives for ever. I wonder what the figure is World Wide for road deaths over the last 2 months to put some context to things in comparison with this virus which seems to be shall we say tolerated to a degree. As for tourism I have not noticed much in the way of sales yet for quick breaks to the likes of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius to name 3 places I have recently looked for deals on.

Kind regards
Mr Mac

racedo 28th Feb 2020 09:44


Originally Posted by Jonty (Post 10697879)
Don’t forget that the vast majority of those that will die will be the old and those in ill health already. The vast majority of “economically active” people will have very mild symptoms, more akin to a mild cold. Most wouldn’t even know they had it, and would go about their daily business like they do now.
So I don't see your “worst case scenario” as any sort of reality.

Great if we knew that as no one would have to worry but there is nothing to back that up. Spanish Flu killed 100 million, 3-5% of the World's population, equally likely to kill young as the old. It will destroy the industry this board is about.

An Albanian friend (late 50's) talking recently of growing up there and said her Grandmother remembered way back to that time, passing on oral history, rural area but able to have said about this family of 13, 3 left after a great sickness that affected everybody, they farming and had decent amount of food available so were not malnourished.

We live in a different time but on 2 cases already we know that 1 lady after taking a Ryanair flight from Italy to Greece is now infected, second person in Belfast took a Ryanair flight from Italy to Dublin. 100 years ago their trip was 2-3 weeks, now its 2-3 hours.

inOban 28th Feb 2020 10:23

One of the unusual features of this virus is that the older you are, the more likely that you will get seriously ill or die. Most of these diseases also attack the very young, but there have been no fatalities at all among children.

Mr Mac 28th Feb 2020 11:57

racedo
This does not appear to be Spanish Influenza like, and generally people are healthier than in 1918. It may become a big issue when it gets into 3rd World countries where the population is not always so healthy, and indeed where health care can be more problematic but it was ever thus. The idea of just pulling up the draw bridge no longer works, and indeed it is doubtful that it ever did when you look at the various other issues we have had like Plague. You just carry on and look after yourself as well as possible.

Kind regards
Mr Mac

LTNman 28th Feb 2020 12:19


Originally Posted by nowhereasfiled (Post 10697346)
Me. Swiped some Ryanair flights to Milan for a fiver next weekend. Will be happy to make the most of having the city to ourselves, no queues at the bar, every cloud and all that.

Seems somewhat irresponsible that you purposely book a cheap flight close to a virus hot spot just to get a bargain without any thought about family and friends. Actually I find it quite shocking.


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