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PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Airlines, Airports & Routes (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes-85/)
-   -   Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/629647-coronavirus-impact-air-travel.html)

ATNotts 27th May 2020 18:03
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK (Post 10794932)
Might be best to think about it a bit more. :O
You're right, the gain is 1 person, not two. But, as a well known UK supermarket oft says "every little helps!"

FFMAN 27th May 2020 18:31
Thinking about it more, you might be a bit nearer than you think. Although 2m is a radius, my understanding is that establishments that receive 'the unwashed public' actually mark out the space in a grid rather than circles so you do lose additional space in the corners and would therefore gain more by relaxing it... yes indeed, every little would help if someone was brave enough to just go with 1.5m like most other countries. Now the government has painted itself in to a 2m x 2m corner it can't get out of it because the media would demand cast iron guarantees that not one person would be affected and a vocal minority of the population would freeze in abject terror and accuse the government of premeditated murder.

PAXboy 27th May 2020 20:08
FFMAN I did not see your other post, if the 2m rule was made up, then so be it. Perhaps the round number attracted them more than 1.8 or 1.5m. Either way, it is what we have now. Given the terrible response of the British govt to the whole event, I'm happy to stay 3m away. If it matters, I have some understanding of the niceties of making this happen as I am a key worker in the funeral trade.

valefan16 28th May 2020 06:29
Gone a bit under the radar but a potential boost to U.K. travel, Boris said when quizzed yesterday air bridges may well be in place by July. Which is good as it appears holiday bookings are surging according to Spain and Ryanair!

ATNotts 28th May 2020 08:27
Originally Posted by valefan16 (Post 10795354)
Gone a bit under the radar but a potential boost to U.K. travel, Boris said when quizzed yesterday air bridges may well be in place by July. Which is good as it appears holiday bookings are surging according to Spain and Ryanair!
The government needed to get itself out of the rather belated corner into which it has pushed itself with this quarantine idea, and the "air bridges" scheme will do that for them. Allow air bridges between the UK and the EU / EEA plus a few others, such as Australasia and parts of the Far East and job done. And if there is a benefit of having the quarantine rules in place it is that arrivals from the new hot spots in South America, plus parts of Norther America can still be subject to quarantine for as long as their cases are still essentially out of control.

inOban 28th May 2020 09:03
I can understand air bridges between countries which both have low current infection rates, bypassing regions with higher rates
But the UK has a current rate at least 4-5 times (often much more) higher than our main holiday destinations.
I can understand flights from mainland Europe to SE Asia wanting to bypass Qatar/Dubai/Singapore but why would these destination countries want the risk of accepting UK visitors?
Our rate is falling, but not as fast as some people had expected.

inOban 28th May 2020 09:06
I can understand air bridges between countries which both have low current infection rates, bypassing regions with higher rates
But the UK has a current rate at least 4-5 times (often much more) higher than our main holiday destinations.
I can understand flights from mainland Europe to SE Asia wanting to bypass Qatar/Dubai/Singapore but why would these destination countries want the risk of accepting UK visitors?
Our rate is falling, but not as fast as some people had expected.

valefan16 28th May 2020 09:17
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795494)
I can understand air bridges between countries which both have low current infection rates, bypassing regions with higher rates
But the UK has a current rate at least 4-5 times (often much more) higher than our main holiday destinations.
I can understand flights from mainland Europe to SE Asia wanting to bypass Qatar/Dubai/Singapore but why would these destination countries want the risk of accepting UK visitors?
Our rate is falling, but not as fast as some people had expected.
These will be likely opened around 29th June by which time the rate SHOULD if the plan goes as it should have come much further down. Germany I believe will accept British visitors from June 14th I think with no quarantine, plus it depends if your looking at rate per 100,000 population of overall as our population is far bigger.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 09:18
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795494)
I can understand air bridges between countries which both have low current infection rates, bypassing regions with higher rates
But the UK has a current rate at least 4-5 times (often much more) higher than our main holiday destinations.
I can understand flights from mainland Europe to SE Asia wanting to bypass Qatar/Dubai/Singapore but why would these destination countries want the risk of accepting UK visitors?
Our rate is falling, but not as fast as some people had expected.
No, that's the problem. If I were sitting on the other side I'd still be looking for UK arrivals to quarantine until the UK gets it's new cases regularly under 1,000 per day. Of course we are running a couple of weeks behind most of Europe, so by the 14th of June we might have achieved that.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 09:21
Originally Posted by valefan16 (Post 10795515)
These will be likely opened around 29th June by which time the rate SHOULD if the plan goes as it should have come much further down. Germany I believe will accept British visitors from June 14th I think with no quarantine, plus it depends if your looking at rate per 100,000 population of overall as our population is far bigger.
Incorrect, when last seen the German population was in excess of 80m, so some 20% greater than UK. France and Italy are the closest to the UK population figure and so they ought really be the benchmark.

valefan16 28th May 2020 10:22
Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10795522)
Incorrect, when last seen the German population was in excess of 80m, so some 20% greater than UK. France and Italy are the closest to the UK population figure and so they ought really be the benchmark.
Germany has done a phenomenal job, but the French and Italians are still in the same bracket as us in terms of Greece and Cyprus entry for example, ours is worse than both but not massively worse. Spain has much less population wise and has been badly hit so its difficult to judge and compare especially when countries are working differently in terms of how they compile the stats and how they record deaths.

Ours for instance include people who died when testing positive for Covid 19, this doesn't always mean that was the actual cause of death. I guess we will only learn the true picture once its all over.

inOban 28th May 2020 10:45
Yesterday the UK declared over 2000 new cases, Spain and Italy 5-600, France less than 200. It what way are we not massively worse?

valefan16 28th May 2020 10:53
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795610)
Yesterday the UK declared over 2000 new cases, Spain and Italy 5-600, France less than 200. It what way are we in the same place?
We aren't in the same place timeline wise, we've always been 2-3 weeks behind and its dropping all the time here, not the time to be complacent but the stats suggest we can be positive, hopefully the track and trace going live today will also help push it further and further down.

Aviation and travel wise we are looking at where we will be in 2-4 weeks time when places open up and sure that 2000 will be down by quite a way by then.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 11:16
Originally Posted by valefan16 (Post 10795621)
We aren't in the same place timeline wise, we've always been 2-3 weeks behind and its dropping all the time here, not the time to be complacent but the stats suggest we can be positive, hopefully the track and trace going live today will also help push it further and further down.

Aviation and travel wise we are looking at where we will be in 2-4 weeks time when places open up and sure that 2000 will be down by quite a way by then.
One would hope so, however although I am on the relaxed side of worried about Covid-19, it still looks to me as though the UK is taking a bigger risk in loosening the lockdown than most other European countries, with numbers of infections still in excess of 2,000 daily. Looking at it positively, we're probably in a better place than Sweden at the moment, but that isn't really saying much.

Expressflight 28th May 2020 11:23
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795610)
Yesterday the UK declared over 2000 new cases, Spain and Italy 5-600, France less than 200. It what way are we not massively worse?
The answer lies in the percentage of positive tests in each country (not the raw numbers) as those daily numbers being quoted are a product of the number of tests being carried out in each country. It may well be the case that the UK does indeed have a higher percentage of positive tests, but I don't know the numbers of daily tests in Spain, Italy or France. so cannot confirm that is the case.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 12:33
Originally Posted by Expressflight (Post 10795665)
The answer lies in the percentage of positive tests in each country (not the raw numbers) as those daily numbers being quoted are a product of the number of tests being carried out in each country. It may well be the case that the UK does indeed have a higher percentage of positive tests, but I don't know the numbers of daily tests in Spain, Italy or France. so cannot confirm that is the case.
Clearly, without delving into the domestic media of all the various nations it's impossible to know the extent of testing. What we believe we know is that Germany, which has comparatively very low numbers of daily new infections, has been testing 100k plus people each day. The other countries have not been reported in UK media. Of course the UK might be testing "the right people" and so have a higher rate of positive tests.

The trouble is that there are "lies, darned lies, and statistics" and they can be presented to give whatever message the presenter want to give.

valefan16 28th May 2020 12:55
Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10795725)
Clearly, without delving into the domestic media of all the various nations it's impossible to know the extent of testing. What we believe we know is that Germany, which has comparatively very low numbers of daily new infections, has been testing 100k plus people each day. The other countries have not been reported in UK media. Of course the UK might be testing "the right people" and so have a higher rate of positive tests.

The trouble is that there are "lies, darned lies, and statistics" and they can be presented to give whatever message the presenter want to give.
Very much the case, the daily death totals for example people base a lot on, but fail to realise some of them actually occurred as far back as April, so are not always made clear that it is the case.

inOban 28th May 2020 12:58
For what it's worth, the total number of tests which have been carried out in Spain Italy, Germany and the UK are fairly similar - 3.5-4 million. The number in France is only about a third as many.
I too hope that the numbers decline steadily, if only to save the UK holiday industry. I can't see the usual floods of inbound visitors until new cases per day are more like 20 rather than 2000

ATNotts 28th May 2020 13:07
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795755)
For what it's worth, the total number of tests which have been carried out in Spain Italy, Germany and the UK are fairly similar - 3.5-4 million. The number in France is only about a third as many.
I too hope that the numbers decline steadily, if only to save the UK holiday industry. I can't see the usual floods of inbound visitors until new cases per day are more like 20 rather than 2000
That figure you quote on the level of testing in France may go some way to explaining why they daily new infection rates are so low, 191 yesterday, and consistently below 1,000 for the last two weeks.

I source statistics from the comprehensive interactive maps to be found on www.tagesschau.de that are generated using Johns Hopkins University data and updated daily. Where have you found information on daily testing across European countries?

inOban 28th May 2020 13:31
Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10795764)
That figure you quote on the level of testing in France may go some way to explaining why they daily new infection rates are so low, 191 yesterday, and consistently below 1,000 for the last two weeks.

I source statistics from the comprehensive interactive maps to be found on www.tagesschau.de that are generated using Johns Hopkins University data and updated daily. Where have you found information on daily testing across European countries?
I didn't quote daily rates.
It could be that testing in France is better targeted.
I use www.worldometers.info/coronavirus which is updated in real time and may be the data source for JHU.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 16:11
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795787)
I didn't quote daily rates.
It could be that testing in France is better targeted.
I use www.worldometers.info/coronavirus which is updated in real time and may be the data source for JHU.
No, I know you didn't post daily rates. I thought the French fall in daily cases was pretty impressive, there's probably other French data that, not being a French speaker, I can't interpret on numbers of people in ICU presently that would betray any lack of or poor testing so we probably have to accept that Macron's very firm lockdown that required permits to travel outside the home really did pay dividends and was the way to go, though certainly "not British".

It could be interesting to see what crumbs Johnson hands out this evening; he needs something headlining to take the heat off the whole Cumming affair and his (mis?) handling of it. An announcement about "air bridges" ahead of the quarantine arrangements coming into force, thus providing "Brits can go to the Costas" types of headline in the red top press might facilitate that quite nicely. Fingers crossed, not so much for "the Brits" but for those working in travel and tourism.

Playamar2 28th May 2020 16:39
France and the UK have similar numbers in ICU, about 1,500. France has only tested 1.8 million against the UK 3.9 million. Both countries are some way behind Spain, Italy & Germany in ICU patients, all less than 900. With regard to 'air bridges' it seems the UK is in active talks with Portugal, as Greece doesn't want us just yet!!

valefan16 28th May 2020 17:04
Originally Posted by Playamar2 (Post 10795926)
France and the UK have similar numbers in ICU, about 1,500. France has only tested 1.8 million against the UK 3.9 million. Both countries are some way behind Spain, Italy & Germany in ICU patients, all less than 900. With regard to 'air bridges' it seems the UK is in active talks with Portugal, as Greece doesn't want us just yet!!
Saw something where Greece would let in higher risk nations on July 15 using a traffic light system.

if a green low risk country 2-3 pax are tested out of 150 say and amber half the pax up to red all the pax.

Not seen much expansion on that though! Cyprus now says they still expect their three key markets who are currently not on the list in U.K, Russia and Sweden to be allowed by July too.

ATNotts 28th May 2020 17:35
Sadly nothing on the air bridges today, so it looks as though the ludicrous (because it is shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted) 14 day quarantine is going to happen in June across the piece.

SCFC1EP 28th May 2020 22:17
Emirates
 
Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10795959)
Sadly nothing on the air bridges today, so it looks as though the ludicrous (because it is shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted) 14 day quarantine is going to happen in June across the piece.
At least more airlines are starting up again from 01/07/20 so I would expect this 14day quarantine only to last 3 weeks,
Emirates restart on 01/07/20 MAN daily, LHR 4 daily GLA daily all A380's that's a lot of seats , they then up frequency 2 weeks later by adding a 2nd MAN 5th LHR agian all A380's and on 01/08/20 add BHX and LGW both2 daily A380 with rest of UK ops returning 01/08/20

mariofly12 28th May 2020 22:23
Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10795610)
Yesterday the UK declared over 2000 new cases, Spain and Italy 5-600, France less than 200. It what way are we not massively worse?
Unfortunately, the numbers today are far from encouraging for France or Spain..France has shot up to 3325 new cases but only 66 deaths and Spain 1137 new cases and just one death..Nordic countries, Eastern european, southeast Med (Italy apart), Austria and Balkans are faring much better on a steady basis..Even in Portugal, Madeira is one of the exceptional cases with few infections and no deaths at all...

valefan16 28th May 2020 23:02
Originally Posted by SCFC1EP (Post 10796172)
At least more airlines are starting up again from 01/07/20 so I would expect this 14day quarantine only to last 3 weeks,
Emirates restart on 01/07/20 MAN daily, LHR 4 daily GLA daily all A380's that's a lot of seats , they then up frequency 2 weeks later by adding a 2nd MAN 5th LHR agian all A380's and on 01/08/20 add BHX and LGW both2 daily A380 with rest of UK ops returning 01/08/20
Even Mr Hancock seems to have eased his no holidays tone today when interviewed down to a we will see attitude.

Imagine after three weeks EU and safe countries such as the Middle East and Far East/Aus/NZ will probably be exempt and it will be just the Latin American nations that have to quarantine. Seems to be a few rumours that certainly some bridges will be up fairly quickly.

SWBKCB 29th May 2020 06:01
From the BBC this morning - still some twists and turns ahead

  • More than 200 schools across South Korea are forced to return to online teaching just days after being allowed back in classrooms
  • On Thursday South Korea reported 79 new cases within 24 hours - its highest number in two months
  • Japan has seen a new cluster of infections emerge in the south-west, just days after the PM lifted the state of emergency
  • Brazil reported a daily record of 26,417 new coronavirus cases on Thursday
  • Moscow more than doubled the official death toll from Covid-19 for the month of April

ericlday 29th May 2020 07:03
Meanwhile Good News from Tenerife Wednesday 27th Nil new cases and Nil deaths.....

inOban 29th May 2020 07:28
Croatia has opened its borders to visitors from eastern Europe including Germany, but you must show a negative Covid19 test. Obviously Italy France Spain Portugal and the UK are not included.

ATNotts 29th May 2020 07:46
Originally Posted by SCFC1EP (Post 10796172)
At least more airlines are starting up again from 01/07/20 so I would expect this 14day quarantine only to last 3 weeks,
Emirates restart on 01/07/20 MAN daily, LHR 4 daily GLA daily all A380's that's a lot of seats , they then up frequency 2 weeks later by adding a 2nd MAN 5th LHR agian all A380's and on 01/08/20 add BHX and LGW both2 daily A380 with rest of UK ops returning 01/08/20
That is my feeling too, the decision was a daft one on the face of it. However once it's in place globally the government will be in a position to lift it on a piecemeal basis where the risk is deemed to be low enough (or I fear where there is a political expedient - read into that what you will). On current infection rates the EU and EEA, perhaps with the exception of Sweden, most of the Far East, Australia and NZ, and parts of Norther America could be winners; South America, Russia and some other nations of the former Soviet Union such as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan where the governments are in denial may remain under quarantine rules. So actually, although the quarantine rules put in at this stage looked perverse, it might actually have been calculated as a better way of doing things diplomatically than placing quarantine restriction only against specified nations at the outset.

EchoKilla 29th May 2020 07:50
well said! :D

Originally Posted by OzzyOzBorn (Post 10793193)
So what I want to know before arranging any new overseas travel is:

- When can I insure myself against travel disruption relating to C-19? Purchasing this as an optional extra (like cruise cover, winter sports cover, etc.) would be fine, but travelling completely uninsured against C-19 risk is not.

- When can I be sure that either my destination country or the UK itself won't order me into quarantine for 14 days by default, even if in perfect health?

- When will the FCO rescind advice against all but essential travel to other countries?

- When can I be sure that my destination will offer a welcoming experience? Will there be any visitor attractions / restaurants / bars / pools / activities open? Excursions operating, anything to do?

- Will the locals at destination resent me as a pariah / leper importing the plague from a 'high-risk' country to kill off their grannies?

- Will I be required to dress up as an astronaut every time I venture out from my resort accommodation?

- Will I be obligated to sit so far apart from everyone that it will be impossible to meet new friends or hold a conversation without shouting? (Though everyone generally moves a safe distance away from me anyway!)

- Will I be denied boarding at the departure gate and despatched into lockdown if one of those handheld temperature measurement devices detects an element of perspiration on my forehead whilst negotiating a hot and sweaty airport environment with luggage?

- Given all these newly-introduced measures, how much extra time will I need to allow for interlining at an enroute hub airport?

I'm quite at ease with the flight element of the trip. But all the above remain concerns until proven otherwise.

valefan16 29th May 2020 08:13
Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 10796353)
From the BBC this morning - still some twists and turns ahead

There will be spikes and this Korea example will be a good case study in terms of the track and trace system we are looking to implement. Most of the cases are from one workplace so this is where the local lockdown comes into play and track and tracing which they are doing.

Hopefully that quickly stems it before it grows further (think it’s down again today) and it’s controlled. The world will be watching with interest.

GAZMO 29th May 2020 14:27
BFS cutting workforce

A quarter of jobs at Belfast International Airport set to be cut - The Irish News

inOban 29th May 2020 20:27
Even Denmark is opening only to Norway, and to a limited extent Germany and Iceland. And stay in rural areas. So no Med holidays.
Our infection rate is not falling nearly as quickly as predicted. It will need to fall another 90% before any sensible country should welcome us.

SCFC1EP 29th May 2020 20:42
The biggest opportunity for the Airlines is that the Spanish Prime Minister confirmed that Spain will be open 01/07/2020 including the Brits, also Cyprus says open to Brits they will even refund your holiday if you get covid whilst there, so for bucket spade flights two out of 4 will be open for Brits come 01/07/20, I've been watching Easyjet/Ryanair prices over last few days for PMI/AGP and prices are going up although still plenty cheap flights for July/August

inOban 29th May 2020 22:41
I said it needed to fall 90% before any sensible country would welcome us. I think what Spain etc are doing is very risky. And clearly Denmark agrees.

Dannyboy39 30th May 2020 06:59
Well BoJo is now looking at scrapping the quarantine back into the U.K.

Im struggling to think of a more chaotic government in living memory.

Playamar2 30th May 2020 08:38
Dannyboy39. I'm struggling to find any news report that says BoJo is looking at scrapping quarantine. I know many within the travel and hospitality industry together with some MPs are saying it must be scrapped. I have heard it may be scrapped after 3 weeks at the end of June. Pease provide a link to support your statement, thanks.

Playamar2 30th May 2020 08:47
Just found this on the Daily Mirror. 'Last night, there were some hints from senior Government sources that Prime Minister Boris Johnson may get rid of the plans completely'.


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