I think the problem with relying on "the science" is that scientists have different theories. If they don't, they are accused of "group-think"

Also, the Government's SAGE committee is comprised of scientists, and their purely scientific recommendations are not moderated by an input from economists (who also have differing opinions).

It just goes to show how difficult it is to make the right political decisions. I just hope any future inquiry doesn't judge the Government's decisions with 20/20 hindsight.

Yes - but.

1. If we had testing in place and testing that we could feel confidence in.
2. If we knew which people of middle age would not experience the virus very badly.

Here is the story of one man with a six week illness.

What the long term impact on his health will be, no one knows. My partner's daughter (aged 30) had the virus and was seriously ill for a week - fortunately not requiring hospital. She is back at work (Police officer) but, again, will there be something that might be aggravated by an illness later in life?

We do not know who can 'go free' - it is an experiment and, therefore, some will die. You (and I) might be among them. If it matters, I work with the UK funeral trade so have seen and heard a few things in the last six weeks.

Perhaps less than you think you do.
Here's a word from somebody than really does know what they're talking about.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...e-lockdown-now

Agree with the other comments on weak leadership. Boris Johnson loves using 'war' language since as a biographer of Winston Churchill he quite fancies himself filling his shoes.
More Captain Mainwaring if you ask me.

The reason I say this is because I picked up Orwell's 1984 again about three weeks ago and read it in two days flat - pretty prophetic. It was of course a metaphor for Stalinism but the similarities are there to be read. We are talking about only being 'free' if we download an app that tells the government where we are at all times - and there are people welcoming this. The NHS has become the State Religion - those who don't pay homage on a Thursday night are slagged off at traitors or non-believers.
The twisting of language for propaganda purposes - Newspeak - has been growing since Tony Blair (Blair actually being Orwell's real name btw) but it has gone in to overdrive in this crisis. 'Apart' means 'together' somehow. The most anti-social set of policies and rules are called 'social distancing'

Precisely. You agree with everything he says because it's want you want to hear. I'm sure that you could find another pathologist who has a different opinion, but you regard his opinion as definitive.
Actually I agree with some of what he says. But not all. Sweden has had far more cases than Denmark, but the damage to its economy is almost as bad, I read.
While most people can be trusted to behave responsibly, enough cannot to mess it up not just for themselves but for everyone else. The evolutionary pressure to become less severe is a well-known phenomenon (if the disease is killing its host before it has had a chance to infect the next)does not apply here (it famously applied in the early outbreaks of myxamatosis in rabbits). And it was quite clear from the situation in northern Italy that it was quite possible for the health service to be overwhelmed.

But certainly there is an urgent need for other treatments to be restarted. Unfortunately people who should be going to hospital or their gp aren't. And the evidence suggests that very few people get infected in the open air.

Going back to the original thread topic. The airline industry has no inalienable right to exist. It is a service industry, and if the rest of the economy decides it doesn't need to fly so often, so be it. What will be interesting is to discover whether the powers that be take on board the real lesson of our difficulty in putting in place the testing, POE etc needed. Siren voices bad told us that the country could live off services and didn't need a manufacturing base. Hence the frantic search for sources elsewhere.

I agree with it yes but I'm putting it out there because the opinions he espouses are not part of the state narrative and people need to be told what they have been forced into, does not even have unanimity among the scientific community - even though the government and the BBC would have us believe that.
The government has conflated science with policy. It has been presented as an absolute.
Real science like any field of research has to be tried and tested, methodologies need to be peer reviewed.....
''We are following the science'' say the government - no they are not - they are following the scientific beliefs of a small number of people who think they are right - but can't prove it. Where is the science in that? One of them believed it so much he went off to see his girlfriend against the rules he'd convinced people were life or death.

There is some scientific evidence to support distancing being effective at 1m - indoors (or in a plane). That is why it is the WHO's guidance distance (indoors). It is UK government policy to go for 2m unlike most other countries on earth. So 2m is a policy; not science. 2m distance outside is also policy not science. There is no science whatsoever to demonstrate any distancing outdoors. So the UK government has effectively painted itself into a corner and in doing so terrified a nation in to submission and run the economy off the end of a cliff. Because it has got 2m embedded in the system, they can't get themselves out of it without terrifying people even more.

Re inOban,

If you listen/read every news artical or expert knowledge even from those who are the very best in their background of research and medical. theirs just
so much difference of opinion, I've seen reports that a second wave will be more deadly why ? this has not happened and never happened previously with this virus so who knows just one opinion, reports seen that this will last for 12-18 months, other reports seen say this could be with us permanently and will be just another virus that will cause people to die just like Cancer, and other well known diseases that have been around for many many years.

If we carry on the way we are just for 12 months it's not just the Airlines that will go under, Tourists will not happen, hotels will go bust , bars/restraunts will go bust, cinemas/gym's/sport, shops will close down for good the list is endless this just isn't about getting on a plane and going to another country the way we are living at the moment can not keep going on this way.

People are not going to hospital now for cancer treatment, and various other treatments and this is causing illness and even more deaths because the government and press has put the fear factor into everyone, people who suffer from depression (my best mate is suffering really bad at the moment worst he's been since he started with depression 2 years ago) will lead to higher levels of suicide, domestic abuse has increased since lockdown, again putting more pressure on families, schools closed for most until at least September and they are even disagreeing now on the few that could go back in a couple of weeks time, hows it going to affect the young if there's no school for at least a year we will have the next generation growing up without education you need to look at the longer/bigger picture. more and more people everyday are loosing their jobs there will be no work for anyone except emergency service and food industry, people are not going out to buy new car or furniture for the house theirs more industries will close the list is never ending.

Oh and remember our government said if we all got immune to the virus, well let the healthy/young get immune thousand will get the disease and not even realise they've had it.

Seen report that if your from a poor background your more likely to die from the virus than if you were from a wealthy background, utterly rubbish why have African countries, central America,, Brazil etc got far less casualties than any western European country, How is all of Eastern Europe got fewer cases/deaths than just the UK? When we sent large numbers back home at the beginning of lockdown Blacks/Asians/Mixed race more at risk again utterly rubbish cases in Pakistan/India are much much lower than Europe and living conditions are much much poorer

Yes there's going to be more deaths with covid-19 but how many deaths could be saved with other illnesses if we got back to or near to normal life, nobody knows the figure ask the 10 people at the top of the field in research and you'll get 10 different answers it's just their opinion

It's widely reported and confirmed those at risk are the old and people with health issues, protect these people let the others return to normality , yes you will get the isolated case where a young person sadly passes away who was healthy and no medical problems prior, and you will also get the elderly that will survive I remember on news a 106 year old caught the virus and beat the virus,

I think if SCFC1EP re-reads their post or investigates what they’re saying more they may be a little embarrassed. Brazil - overtaken Spain and Italy and could beat UK too for deaths....I could mention their politics being of the Trump/Johnson variety but best to leave it there.

Eastern Europe - poor....hopefully just ill informed rather than British exceptionalism. As nations yes they are ‘poorer’ than the UK on GDP, incomes etc but when talking about poorer communities in this context it means deprivation etc and the links to poor health that brings. Not to mention disproportionate numbers of BME staff in the most exposed health roles and other key worker roles who live in larger cities and ride around on more risky public transport.

India...brought in hard line curfew. So not comparable with UK where we’ve been lax.

The higher death rates within the BAME community (quoted as upto x4 higher) in the U.K, and I believe is also true for NL,FR, BE and the New York area in the U.S cannot not only be down to the usual social economic factors as is often quoted. Even allowing for this, the death rates have been significantly higher even accounting for social deprevation (Which also exist in near white only communities who however have not had similar death rates). One possible reason I have seen mentioned is the Vitamin D defficiancy which could also explain why the Flu season always peaks in winter. I believe more study need to be done to determin the link between vitamin D and the immune system and not to trot out the usual 'hard done by' sentiments.

Ah, your 'guilt by association' strategy yet again. In reality, the UK and US domestic policy agendas are entirely unrelated. Such common ground as does exist on C-19 strategy is borne only of desire to overcome the spread of the virus in accordance with best available scientific advice.

If you wish others to take your postings seriously, you need address reality. Groundless sweeping statements such as that above do nothing to impress. And you've been called out for this type of shallow nonsense before.

Any chance of relating posts even remotely to air travel? Jet Blast is place for this stuff.

Looks like the UK 14day quarantine is in chaos as Transport Sec Grant Shapps says the govt is in "active discussions" over introducing so-called 'air bridges' - allowing people entering the UK from countries with an 'R' lower than 1.0 to be exempt from the proposed two-week quarantine. Well that means just about every country in Europe would be exempt. Spain now has an 'R' of 0.77 and that has been one of the worst affected.

I can’t see how something that hasn’t been introduced can be described as being in chaos when other countries have introduced restrictions with no notice.

I see France has retaliated by insisting that Spanish citizens quarantine after French citizens where told to quarantine by the Spanish.

If that is the case then surely it works the other way also... UK holidaymakers/travellers maybe allowed to travel and airlines will take advantage of this ! Many of the countries people travel to for holidays seem to be opening up bars restaurants and beaches. Italy Spain and Greece to name a few. Some countries are starting to encourage travel to boost their economies ?

Or will our government allow people in but keep us imprisoned on our own little island ?

Another perspective:
https://unherd.com/2020/05/should-we...tion-industry/

LTNMan. The initial plan was that Ireland would be exempt then France was added. Then France wasn't exempt and now quite a few more countries would be exempt. The Gov't are changing the goal posts so often they will probably change again before implementation. With Spain there was no messing about and no country was exempt. I agree other countries may ask UK travellers to quarantine if our rate of infection is high, in a tit for tat response and the UK Government could have no complaints,

Regarding Ireland, I heard over the weekend that it isn't as clear cut as has been portrayed, and that arrival by air from the Irish Republic to mainland UK will be subject to 14 days quarantine, and it's only not applicable to arrivals across the land border. If so this is blatant nonsense; either arrivals from the RoI are, or are not safe. If they aren't safe then the RoI / NI border should be controlled and those crossing into NI from the RoI put into quarantine. If it is safe, then quarantine shouldn't apply for air arrival to mainland UK - one or the other, otherwise this is little less than playing politics.

The reality is that HMG are already softening what is, as Michael O'Leary said yesterday, a totally unworkable system since we don't have a UK equivalent of the STASI following people's movements, and the regular police simply don't have the manpower to go knocking on doors, let alone forcing entry without a search warrant to check who is, or isn't at home. The concept that travel between some countries may quarantine-free, as their infection rates are acceptably low opens the door for significant backtracking, and with pressure from the travel and tourism industries may well allow holidays to the Med., Adriatic and central Europe, as well as inbound tourism from the likes of China. What will be interesting to watch is if a "political decision" were to be made prematurely to lift quarantine on US arrival, under pressure from the Trump administration, and the UK putting the interests of "the greatest ever trade deal" ahead of public safety.

The prospects for leisure travel for the high season for the likes of Jet2 and TUI probably look a little brighter.

Given that the US has a lower rate of Covid death and infection than the UK and most of Europe (281 deaths per million compared with 523 for the UK, 529 for Italy, 593 for Spain, 797 for Belgium etc etc) who is putting trade above safety?

As has been extensively discussed on this forum, death rates between countries aren't comparable as different countries include, eg suspected cases. Even infection rates depend on who is targeted for testing. But the number of infections in the US has overtaken all of Europe except Spain and Belgium (but will exceed B in a few days).

what is the point of that statement? - the US has a population of 328 million compared with Spains 46 million and 11 million for Belgium. More people live in Texas than Belgium.

The UK could consider quarantining arrivals from particular cities or regions of the USA, as some areas have been hit much harder than others, but as the USA is one country, and it is perfectly conceivable that someone from, say New York which has been the major hotspot for infections might fly into the UK from a low risk city. And anyway don't confuse deaths with infection rates. The UK is currently running at around 3,000 new infections reported each day, the USA at about 6 time that number, but their population is not 6 time larger than that of the UK.

Death rates tell you very little about what is happening now, it tells you the consequences of what happened previously, and what is more, as with the UK, when the reported death rates are compared with the different between actual deaths in the country versus the normal annual death rate I'm sure the US picture would look very much worse than it's daily reported figures. What is more, the dangerous policies on lifting of lockdowns in the USA, as compared, for example with how most European countries are proceeding make the USA a country of origin where quarantine should have been imposed weeks ago, and certainly where the UK, and other countries need to be particularly wary today and going forward.

Which country does, or doesn't get favourable treatment matters not, it is the clear avenue out of the proposal for the (unworkable) blanket quarantine policy that the UK chucked into the equation a week or so ago ought to offer a brighter outlook for airlines for the high season - unless of course the UK screws up it's own exit from lockdown.

I was, of course, quoting rates per million population. I didn't think I needed to state that.

Can I refer readers to www.worldometers.info/coronavirus. This site logs all data as it is released.

But infection rates dont mean anything as if you test more you find more infections and it also depends on whether the tests are actually accurate. The only reasonably accurate measure is deaths and the US are far behind the majority of European countries.

On the contrary some countries only count deaths in hospital of those confirmed by testing. Others, including the UK, include all those where it is suggested on the death certificate. I suspect that in the US, where reports come from individual states, the data vary in accuracy,.
I think that the test results are more accurate and comparable than the death data.

People should be used to the idea that there is no plan. There is not a single idea of the way forward just a take a guess, make a statement and see the resistance.

Any views not going along with the majority get censored.

Another reason will never know the full total is that, in the early weeks, many of the deaths at home and in care homes - did not have CV19 on the death certificate. Pneumonia and other causes, yes. The reasons for this do not matter - it happened. THAT then affected other numbers.

More importantly, as is regularly stated, as we have not tested anough people in the uk (randomised and repeated) we have no idea of the Case Fatality Rate.

Lastly, a proportion of the excess deaths now being experienced in the UK, are due to people not attending treatment sessions, people having surgery postponed, people not wanting to go to hospital for fear of catching the virus. So these deaths are 'collateral damage' of the virus and the way the UK has responded.

So there are hints that Spain could open its beaches in July and that the UK government is under pressure not to introduce quarantine regulations for visitors to counties like Spain with its drop in cases.

Is this not how second waves begin? Those that travel to Spain will be risk adverse by the very fact that they are prepared to fly. Come nightfall the streets will be full and people will soon forget social distancing even if it was possible as they try to have a good time.

I'm afraid that those same parents who are bitching about their kids going back to school, and the teachers bitching about teaching them in schools, will actually be at the front of the queue for their two weeks in on the Costas.

AT Notts
Tend to agree with you re the Costas. Also find it odd that teachers many of who have been effectively furloughed due to school being shut but on full pay will return in June for 6 weeks before taking another 6 week summer holiday. This in marked contrast to many in the private sector who have seen a significant drop in income. I watched a video on BBC website about the return of Danish kids this week which was very heart warming. I only hope UK schools, be they staff / teachers or indeed kids handle it as well.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

I can see the Government’s strategy of turning the people against the teachers ably and keenly supported by a certain section of the press has had the desired effect on the above two.

What evidence is there teachers will be at the front of the queue for a couple of weeks at the Costas? Not sure where to start with that one other than anecdotal evidence from people young and older I know who take other types of holiday. But that’s not the point here.

As for the furlough comment - believe it or not most are still working - setting work, marking, being in school...some are out delivering the free school meals. Before you bang on about Denmark we’re in a very different place.

Come September the virus will still be here. Do those that don’t want the schools to go back still keep their kids at home while happy to take family holidays?

if you have any evidence to support it - please post. I suspect you're guessing though to promulgate fear.

You do realize that the WHO guidance on 'social' distancing is 1m don't you? You also realize that the WHO guidance relates to indoors rather than outdoors? God only knows why the UK government (almost uniquely) decided to say 2m instead of 1m and in doing so rolled a whole load of viable businesses over the end of the cliff.... and scared the crap out off the unthinking population, many of whom would now quake in terror at the prospect of standing 1m next to a stranger even though the WHO says it's a safe distance. Boris is going to have to answer some hard questions (to which he will trot out the usual cliches and bluster).

Wonder why so many countries insist their citizens wear masks while outside then when we don’t.

"if you have any evidence to support it - please post. I suspect you're guessing though to promulgate fear"

FFMAN: A second wave is an acknowledged risk as there is some evidence the virus is not going away anytime soon. How much of a risk is not known. Simply mentioning the possibility doesn't mean someone is trying to promulgate fear.

Airport Planner 1
Believe it or not as I am based in Germany and the UK I do not read the UK press much, apart from usually getting Sunday Times and watching BBC World. My comment was based on the obvious case that the schools are closed as is much of UK PLC, though there is now some signs of a return to work. The schools I have driven passed over the last period when I have been in the UK, had few if any cars in their respective car parks and appeared to be largely closed hence my comment. Out of the 4 local schools close to our UK house 3 are shut and apparently there are 23 children attending the one that is open, and this according to the caretaker who walks his dog past our house each evening. There must be some govt figures for the numbers working somewhere which would be interesting to see.

The comment on the Costas was not directed at teachers parse, but on the group of individuals alluded to by AT Notts in his previous post.

My comment on the Denmark video was that it was heartwarming, and that the teachers / headmaster and parents not to mention the kids seemed to have a good handle on what was required. I hope that UK schools staff and parents and indeed the children handle it as well. I would recommend you watch it, if you have not already done so.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

Many countries are trying harder than the UK to get the virus under control. Spain has fewer new cases by a factor of 5 compared to the UK, and has tested twice as many as the UK. It also has fewer deaths in the last few days compared to the UK by a factor of 5. The UK Government may well allow travellers returning from Spain an exemption from quarantine, but more to the point will Spain allow visitors from the UK into their country. The quarantine rule may well backfire on the UK Gov't as so many countries may allow visitors form countries with a poor Covid-19 rate. I notice Greece wishes to set up an air bridge with the UK, if they are exempt from quarantine.

Post 1

There you go, made it easy for you

https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629...us-thread.html

Those trade unions who want the country to stay in what seems like an indefinite lockdown to protect members will be at the head of the queue in complaining about tax rises for their members at the day of reckoning. Then those people will have very short memories as will the press, commentators and the population at large.

Most teachers, unless they are vulnerable or living with someone who is, want to get back to work. The teaching unions don’t have that much influence; don’t believe all you read in the Express.

The police would not need to enter homes at all. It would be down to the individual to come to the front door with their passport. No one is going to hide inside a home if that is where they are meant to be so have committed no crime. Fines could be imposed for those that did not identify themselves. If they were a foreigner a marker could be put against them to ban their re-entry. The threat of house calls would make many comply.