What's the plan next summer? Will they replace them or can they cope without them next summer.

Are they not just winter leases, and due back to the UK for Summer 21?

Unsure. But it wouldn't follow the typical winter leases TUI operate.

787s leased to TUI Nordic retain their G- registrations. These are being re-registered, plus I believe TUIFly were due to get two widebodies full time anyway. So I suspect these are those.

Yes, these are not leases. The two aircraft are being transferred to TUI fly (X3) as they will be launching long-haul ops from Dusseldorf. An ex-TOM 787 (G-TUIG) already transferred to TUI Belgium a couple of years ago. What's not clear is whether this will result in reduced capacity for TOM from S21 onwards. I don't believe the TUI Group have any further 787s on order (could be wrong) and I'd guess the 767s won't be around for too much longer either.

Unless they do a summer wet lease job it looks as though it will be reductions.

I suppose a few Norwegian dreamliners will become available if the expectation of their demise comes true, but where else will they get 2nd hand dreamliners from?

I can’t see them introducing a new long haul type, so if they are going for replacement a/c you would assume they would be dreamliners.

azz767,
Norwegian dreamliners are a no no, different engine config and the last thing that TUI need at this time is any aircraft with Trent 1000 engines.
Even the largest operator of the type is now switching to the GEnx engine for there latest orders.

Ignoring cost....at least with B787, its a relatively easy swap from RR to GE....

What’s the obsession with replacing these 787s? TOM have 5 lines of short haul flying on the 787 in the summer, there’s a surplus of widebody capacity throughout most of the year. Moving aircraft around the group airlines to operate the routes the aircraft are designed for makes sense.

TUIFly did have a B767 for 2 winter seasons(different aircraft) from TOM, which were re-registered for the winter season with TUIFly and then re-registered back to TOM for the summer season.

Could the same be happening here? or do TUIFly intend to fly long-haul all year round?

The big difference is TOM usually fly the Nordic longhaul programme, hence the aircraft stay on the UK register. It will be X3 pilots operating the B787 from Germany, hence re-registering them on the D register.

German 787 ops are permanent year round. Nordic long haul flying reduced for winter 20.

it’s still a massive capacity loss on short haul especially if these leave full which you’d imagine in summer they would. Replacing a 787 on a short haul route with a 737 is a big loss, and they won’t have the 737’s even with maxes back to double up surely

Don't Panic TOM know what they are doing.....They managed pretty well last year when dropped in it right at the start of S19

You seem to be forgetting the 9 extra 738s that are joining the fleet (depending on the lease term obviously). Along with the maxes which will be back by S21 they will have the aircraft to cover 2 missing 788's.

Will the MAXs be back though? A couple of months ago I probably would’ve said they definitely would, but now, I really wouldn’t be sure. Also, I’d imagine some of the older 738s and most/all of the 757s will be gone over the next year or two. And if the MAXs are back by S21, will they keep all of these “contingency” aircraft? Also, the reintroduction of the MAX is unlikely to be a speedy process, with backlogged deliveries and airline testing/training.

They aren't contingency aircraft they are growth aircraft. All the 3rd party wet leases are the contingencies. I cant see them being around for just 1 summer with the cost Involved in securing them, painting etc.

Regarding the max who knows. Most airlines are expecting them back before year end but impossible to say. But if they are there will be more than the 9 UK aircraft that are currently grounded. Granted majority of 757s should be gone, but we've said that before aswell.

I am sure TUI is now mulling over their planned big plans for future growth and may well take stock of the world situations......
Re the MAX - well don't hold your breath. We have not got a clue as to that outcome.....

Does anyone know whats happening with G-TUIL down in BGI? Was due back in to BHX this morning as BY825, assuming it's gone tech? Suppose it explains the Wamos 332 thats covering the CUN flight today.

this has since changed now
3 ex FlyDubai
3 ex Norwegian
2 ex Pegasus, been told NWI expecting one for paint soon not sure which one
1 ex Malaysian
The sunwing arrangement looks like 7 coming over this summer and the planned 2 that were to be bought now part of the larger leased fleet coming over
and possible extended
all of course subject to change as we know in this game


Mark

Planespotters is now indicating that TOM will only acquire four (1x Norwegian, 3x FlyDubai) second-hand B738s. Jethros is still showing nine aircraft.

G-FDZG has been WFU and will join G-FDZE at Belavia. It also looks like the lease has been extended on G-OOBF as this did not leave the fleet as originally predicted. It remains to be seen whether the same is done for G-OOBE which Jethros currently has leaving in April.