So three operators on eg GLA-Belfast?
Guess which one will ditch it first...My bet would be Loganair (if they even start it now after EI)

Well I would doubt of the operators on parade it will be easyJet - or Ryanair - who’ll blink on GLA, MAN, LBA, EMA, or any of the other routes in the offing! 😏

Stobart don’t just fly to Newquay. There are plenty of routes they currently do from DUB that may cultivate interest from the main player particularly if they’re struggling to find work for their own operation. In a changing world the playbook has been ripped up. This forum of armchair experts has no real clue of the dynamic between the stakeholders in this or whatever agreements they make with their unions. No amount of imported ATRs and crew at BHD will make up for the loss of Flybe. It will however make some contribution to the local economy which can only be good. Regarding Loganair I wouldn’t back them to fail either on GLA. They’re not bad at this game and I wish them luck.

I am well aware of what stobart operate out of dublin and also what Aer lingus operate out of dublin.

my point is, Aer lingus do NOT want stobart off their patch. They are discussing an extension of the contract. Stobart do something mainline can’t do, the provide frequency. The whole regional model is to feed long haul, point to point is happily served by Ryanair - it’s not EIs core market. The airbus is just too big for that high frequency market. And where here is demand For specific peak flights for more than an ATR the two work hand in hand. Like MAN and BHX.

the point is, Belfast has nothing to do with dublin and the Belfast operation is a good move for both sides. Aer lingus have the brand and reputation and stobart the right aircraft for that market

they also support stobart in Belfast city as do the pilots of Aer lingus.

Would EI/Stobart have the same interline agreements in place that BE had?. Stobart are currently feeding into the DUB hub but a BHD operation would in effect be point to point around the UK if none existed. Yes there is a healthy market for that but business but it always intrigued me the number of EK/EY/VS customers transfering via GLA/BHX/MAN on the BE flights ex BHD. Mind you i guess covid has killed that share of the market in the medium term.

The ORK-MAN carries (Or used to) a healthy load that would transfer onto VS/EY/EK etc.. so would, I suppose be no different to any possible BHD-MAN route. There was also a healthy load connected to VS flights to and from DUB. Bag loads of 70+ bags for an ATR to DUB due connections from the VS network was not uncommon at MAN.

If the BHD flights are done by Stobart as part of the EI deal, they will surely interline with One World airlines - they will be Aer Lingus flights. Why would they interline with IAG competitors? Of course, there maybe PAX who self-transfer.

EI provide interline for a number of non IAG airlines and always have done. A lot of Dublin flights still carry the EY code and certainly a lot feed into VS etc ...

Oh thats very informative as it was not uncommon for all the bagss on a BE MAN or GLA all to be onward connections. Cheers for that

This was one of the conditions attached to approval of the IAG take over Aer Lingus.

"The clearance decision is conditional upon the following commitments, which address the Commission’s concerns:

• the release of five daily slot pairs at London-Gatwick airport to facilitate the entry of competing airlines on routes from London to both Dublin and Belfast ; and
• Aer Lingus continuing to carry connecting passengers to use the long-haul flights of competing airlines out of London-Heathrow, London-Gatwick, Manchester, Amsterdam, Shannon and Dublin."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_15_5371

hi Cumbrianboy,
I would suggest that they currently are not discussing the extension of the contract. IAG will invite tenders at the appropriate stage. I would guess that Stobart got some commitments in relation to BHD, I.e. Stobart are unlikely to be building an Aer Lingus branded operation at BHD only to loose the franchise in less than 2 years. I'd guess they have an agreement that says 'if' Stobart doesn't maintain the franchise as it currently stands, then they may be able to continue the franchise for BHD operations. That would be my take on what is taking place, that's if these rumours materialise. I did see the listings on the app last week also, so I'd have a high degree of confidence something happens this week...

This makes sense its more to do with Stobart running the BHD routes that Aer Lingus. If Stobart lose the franchise, Stobart will still have the Base at BHD will just need to find a new franchise partner run with. Though latest news is that, the CAA has withdrawn its decision to remove Flybe's operating license and route license because of the appeal by Flybe's administrators and the regulations adopted by the EU.

Though this was more to do Cyrus and Flybe's administrators. I have no idea if Stobart is still involved with this or not. I know that Stobart air was brought back only so that Stobart Air does not collapse or lose the franchise with Aer Lingus.

https://www.caa.co.uk/Commercial-ind...ing-decisions/

The real story behind this must have more twists and turns than a roller coaster. It will be fascinating to see what actually happens. Just to add another twist. Post brexit would Stobart not need a UK AOC to operate domestic UK flights 🤪

As far as I am aware there has already been an agreement between the UK and Irish governments to treat it as CTA so an airline that is Irish or British can operate domestic flights in both countries - just presently there are no British carriers operating domestic flights in Ireland.

Not got a clue. Was told it was Thursday last week
They seem to be in the "green room" in the booking system , just waiting to be announced for sale

Takes a long time to get one's paws on taxpayers' money, and even longer to meander through the public system of checks and balances before someone puts the actual cheque in the post.

After all the boss of Stobart very clearly advised the Irish media a week or two ago that it won't be them what's bankrolling this plan.

Many a slip tween a cup and a lip.

Perhaps the Gov are waiting to see if anyone is going to lease some cheap Q400s and crews to cobble together a smaller Flybe and retake BHD. This admin process cant go on forever and they've got the licences back - who knows.

AOC and FCAs
 

From below neither Aer Lingus or Stobart have a UK AOC and from 31st October will require a foreign carrier permit which will not be given for
domestic services. Note from the AOC holders, both Ryanair and Wizz already have UK AOCs


https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analy...-certificates/
https://www.caa.co.uk/Commercial-ind...arter-flights/

That could be an issue alright for them

doesn't it say 31st October 2019?