We know the majority of people get better big-brain, the problem is that collectively we don't have the capacity in our hospitals to care for the ones who don't. If you don't limit the spread then being "in the minority" is a death sentence, simple as that.

There's no proof people can't catch it twice. There's no proof the virus won't be latent in your body for decades after getting better and then kill you one day like the measles can. There's no way to even predict whether you're likely to be in the minority who get sick as many sick/old have made an apparent full recovery.
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You're just plain wrong if you think COVID-19 is nothing new. Nobody alive has seen anything anything like it.

I really wouldn’t be surprised if it was mandated that you have to wear as mask onboard an aircraft - in a similar way we had no sharp objects and the liquid rule. Masks available at the airport like the plastic bags for liquids.

Not fool proof, but probably the best comprimise available at the moment.

Most will recover and that is fact because were that not the case then the death rate would be in the hundreds of thousands in UK alone by now. The projected mortality rate is circa 1% or less of those infected.

As of yesterday it is 20k and will continue to rise but UK own statistics have shown that in winter 2014/15 there were 28,330 deaths from flu. People who tested and shown to have Covid-19 who then die are recorded as having died of it even though it has been highlighted that a significant majority have severe underlying medical conitions and dying anyway. In addition people who die and not been tested are excluded from the statistics even though they may have died from Covid-19. On that basis the stats have a great deal of unreliability as have been highlighted numerous time in the last month by the media.

WHO estimates that between 270,000 and 650,000 died each year from influenza and have caution with that figure as many people who caught it are not reported as dying from it where there were underlying conditions.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bi...dlines/5701932

Viruses by their nature change all the time and will continue to do so. Catching the virus and allowing the body deal with it has been the most effective way for thousands of years. It will continue to be the way going forward and no end of expensive solutions will change it.

Everybody has seen a Covid-19 type virus, it is called influenza and WHO estimates kills 650,000 people per year and even then that likely a significant underestimate.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/....+Lancet.+2017

Viruses killing thouands are not new because TB is estimated to infect 10 million plus people a year with 1.3 million dying and a mortality rate of 3%. As it is not a 1st world disease unless an outbreak close to a media station it is ignored.

US CDC estimates flu season in the US has 40 million infections per year with circa 60,000 plus deaths in a normal year but because the data is not fully recorded and someone dying on cancer who has flu can be recorded in either or both or something else.

Cheapest solution and likely most effective because while it won't neceassarily stop you catching something it may stop someone else spreading it. Also likely only required at certain times of the year i.e. flu season.

A couple of points to note, the 20k dead in U.K. so far is highly likely a significant underestimation (could even be double) and we’ve still got some way to go so the flu argument is redundant.

The fit and well and the under 70s carrying on with normal life is all well and good but how does that help route economics and the viability of some airlines. Sure, Stansted-Sofia may be fine but how about Stansted-Alicante? Malaga? Could such routes sustain a huge loss of market, disproportionately high in the months such routes are at their weakest

Ryanair will have to shrink down a bit. They seem more than capable of cutting underperforming routes/frequencies and opening other routes instead. Why should Stansted-Alicante in October (outside half term) be any different ?

It could just as equally be lower because having been diagnosed positive with Covid-19 and dying, doesn't mean you died of Covid-19 but the stats are recording it that way.

Likewise nursing homes are getting unrecorded but in flu season the undertaker is a regular caller at a nursing home in a bad flu season.

In principle yes but there has been a rise of thousands in deaths compared to what is normal. So in actual fact Covid-19 is causing significant additional mortality no matter whether officially someone died from it or some other unrelated/underlying cause. The net additional deaths on their own will most likely exceed the flu figure.

Where do I start? The only similarity between Covid19 and flu is that they are both RNA viruses. The nearest relatives to Covid19 are some of the viruses which cause the common cold.
And TB of course isn't a virus at all, it's a mycobacterium.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...isional/latest

ONS looks at what is mentioned on death certificates as the last press release indicates.
Deaths are way above normal but underlying medical conditions are playing a massive part as born out by Govt statement after statement.
The who basis of looking at this will be over a year and as the year goes on the total deaths could increase but also decrease v normal as Covid-19 may have hastened the deaths of people who may have died anyway this year anyway.

TB may be so BUT 1.5 million people died of TB in 2018, likely the same last year and the same this year and it spreads through the air when people cough, spit or sneeze................ exactly the same as Covid-19.

Why are you comparing CoVid19 to a disease most of us are vaccinated against and have been for a long time. I got my BCG in 75. A whatever most of the population are already immune to is hardly comparable to a virus no vaccine exists against, we are only learning how to treat appropriately and which immunity against or for how long still cannot be confirmed even if you have had it. Such a lax atitude is not going to bring customers back to Ryanair or any other airline in any numbers anytime soon.
In addition its Trump talk and most european politicians will likely take a different and mouch more careful line in precautions including how cross border including airline traffic is handled. At least to avoid 14 days in quarantine for every passenger. Unless you are planning a Sweden-Hungary-Brasil-USA (Tegnell(politicians keeping a low profile),Orban,Bolsonaro,Trump) combination route. But then Ryanair at least would need some Norwgian 787's.

Setting aside whether TB can be managed with medication or can be vaccinated against - which it can.

TB DOESN'T SEND YOU TO HOSPITAL WITHIN WEEKS OF YOU BEING EXPOSED TO IT

Without a vaccine it is inevitable that we will all catch COVID-19 one day as we have no immunity, that fact has not eluded our world's epidemiologists. The question is do you let everybody get sick at once, ensuring that most or all of the people who suffer complications will die? Or do you slow the spread as long as possible to give the health system time to manage the cases without running out of basic supplies like surgical masks? To buy our medical researchers time to test potential treatments or vaccines?

PPE is one thing, more can be made within a few weeks. It takes decades to retrain a specialist doctor if one succumbs to the illness after catching it from a patient.

I do not excpect to catch it. But it may happen if we open travel to countries which completely failed like UK. Here in Lithuania we have only 0,05% population infected and it is on decline now. Poland has even less cases per population, about half of that. The goal should have been not to slow it but to completely erradicate and that was quite possible if acted on time.

And to put in the perspective what Poland has done to have that rate - when they closed boarders they even refused to let Lithuanian passenger cars cross from Germany to return, we had thousands stranded. Only buses were allowed to cross after a few days of negotiations and those drove with police escort. Cars were not accepted even with police escort offered as an option, they had to use ferry or stay.

The idea of having free travel so soon will be looked at quite sceptical here.

I suppose with two seperate Ryanair threads on the go, there's no need to talk about Ryanair on the Ryanair thread.

Maybe somebody should open a more generalist thread on the impact of the virus on air travel? Oh, wait... :rolleyes:

Any idea what the FR68 today wss doing DUB-ROB?

That's got to be close to the limit of what a 738 can do.

Depends on the load factor. They routinely fly BFI-DUB on delivery flights from Seattle.

Aren’t there Irish military personnel stationed in west Africa for peacekeeping duties? I’d assume this would be a charter for troop movement reasons?

i thought, back in the day, excel airways used to fly some of these charters on the B738...so it should be doable non-stop subject to loads..?

Originally Posted by Noxegon
I think they refuel at KEF en route.

Don't think so. I believe most were direct BFI-DUB.

Private charter repat flight: https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-boeing-737-liberia/

Outbound flight was non-stop, return flight refuelled in Seville.

Ryanair boss speaking on BBC, 3000 jobs to go and some UK bases to close

BBC - Ryanair set to cut up to 3,000 jobs to survive virus

Also from BBC......Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has said it will take up to six months to refund passengers for flights cancelled because of the coronavirus pandemic.

He told the BBC the airline was struggling to process a backlog of 25 million refunds with reduced staff.

However, he pledged: "If you want a cash refund, you will receive a cash refund."

Refunding back to the original card is just an IT matter. They have all the data and technical resources to do it. One looks (probably in vain) for the Dept of Transport to lift one of their many available fingers to do the slightest thing about this for UK passengers (I see the UK Competition & Markets Authority feel they have had to get going with the media on this, given the DfT's complete inaction).

I must look up my Bankruptcy Law, but if a company does not have the cash to refund people their advance payments for services then not provided, they look like they may be trading when insolvent. It's all very nice to have advance payments in the bank, but they shouldn't then be used for prior operational expenditure. That's a Ponzi Scheme.

You should represent yourself in court as well.

In the interview O’Leary mentioned the closing of some UK bases. Anyone like to speculate?

MOL said 3000 or so RYR Crews (FD and CC) could be made redundant plus he was looking to close smaller UK and European bases hinting these would be summer only/seasonable bases. As the summer season was not going operate in any number then the winter season will be upon us hence the need to close them.

BOH, for instance is a one plane base but I gather it is year-round so they may not take a hit. (BOH is my local)

He also said ''and IF we survive this...''

I would think that there may be consolidation of the Glasgow and Prestwick operations into one. But which way I wouldn't like to guess, GLA is more convenient for passengers, but PIK has the large maintenance base and makes rotating aircraft in and out easier.

you have identified the issue....”advance payments” are a future, “services then not provided” are a default.

Airlines and tour operators use liquidity provided by cash from future bookings to finance the day to day operation.

Banks and insurance companies do the same with deposits and premiums.

He is being correct. Q1 has ended for most companies and majority are not forecasting to the end of the year.

When John Lewis indicates many stores will not reopen, Debenhams is pretty much gone, numerous others will go as well and retail shopping is dead aside from food. To Quote next boss "Nobody wants to spend £100 on an outfit to sit at home.".

Nightingale hospital was built with much fanfare but they could have taken 3 months as it is planned for next winter.

In the event of a second wave which is expected then this and others are prepped. The impact on the economy will be to pretty much destroy it completely and if winter has a second wave then people will talk themselves into a 3rd wave in 2021, even if it doesn't arrive.

Just a query Racedo - I've read many of your posts. You never ever ever seem to look for a positive outcome or positive thinking on anything! You've either been reading the Daily Mail for way too long or else you are a naturally pessimistic person that takes delight in wallowing in self pity and worst case scenarios. I'm all for being realistic and facing facts but having an outlook like yours on a permanent basis can't be good for your mental health! Theres no doubt the current place we all find ourselves isn't good but it will get better. Just as previous disasters and financial problems passed through - this will as well. It isn't the end of civilisation just yet.:cool:

Oooh missus I got a fan or a stalker. I must admit not having read many of yours, sorry, so cannot do an online analysis of your thinking by reading some words on a screen.

Stating the facts that retail has collapsed and will stay there is pretty much in most business pages of any media these days. UK is a consumer led economy where retail is a major part. Losing that means losing a substantial amount of jobs and a substantial amount of people who fly for leisure.

You also have a change with people getting used to not shopping, even ending lockdown, the hospitality sector will not open until end of summer. The girl spending £100 at Next for a saturday night out, is also the girl who will discuss with her mates at the pub / club the weekend away in October in some part of Europe. Remove one part of it and you impact every subsequent event......... you may not see it but those who do the insight marketing do.

Many of my leisure trips have started because someone made a suggestion in the pub, restaurant, club. Others may be different but number of people I know who came back in Monday over the years who started looking at a trip from a suggesion over the weekend is substantial because someone said something.

The additional hospitals were a good PR exercise when it was needed but were PR. They were never for this part of the crisis at this time. They just proved the ability to do it.

The Airline industry be in Ryanair / IAG / U2 and others are at a point where they may be gone next year. Many people have gone into self isolation and exclusion of all, removing lockdown will not remove the fear, a second winter wave will have people expecting a 3rd one and nobody will be booking anything, "just in case", as insurers will not be covering.

Everybody will have different opinion how this ends up but like always it is good to see others opinions rather than kicking someone because they put theirs down.

MOL is out there for being one of those people who will call the industry view before others. Airline bosses do speak to each other and internal lawyers will always know what was discussed. but what he said is not any different from what every other airline boss is saying.

Just because the pubs are shut, that hasn't stopped converstations. Zoom isn't only being used to do away with the need for business travel :ok:

There is the "we need a holiday after all this" factor as well. Also, being reported that last month saw the largest reduction in credit card debt for years - if your not spending £100 in Next for a Saturday night...

The night is darkest before the dawn.
During the flu pandemic of 1918-19 which was far more severe than Covid, life carried on. Presidents and prime ministers around the world are talking now about how to exit lockdown, and after the initial shock, people under about 60 are beginning to decide they can maybe take a few more risks.

To those working as cabin crew in Ryanair and facing redundancy - look at this as a time to learn something new and fulfilling and finding a better job; there's more to life than flogging overpriced cappuccinos to enrich somebody else.

Chin up, and commercial aviation will get through this and bounce back

Oh I get you BUT many people have influencers on their lives, they may want to go but the influencers start saying "No", "Too risky" etc etc. Talking on zoom (other services are available) is ok but sitting in a group at a bar and coversation goes everywhere and someone suggests something, bar person chips in saying X was great, etc etc and a plan starts. Just a wee bit harder on zoom etc.

The stopping spending if this lasts to June will potentially continue as people will finally get a chance to get out of debt or in many cases will look to change jobs. There will be a gret reset in how people do things and travel will be one of the casualties along with retail.

DJ. Think this is a bit condescending to people who do enjoy working in airlines. In many cases gives them opportunities to learn, travel, meet new friends, no different from people working in McDonalds for 4-5 years when they are young.