Last time I visited Southend was in 1980 and I've had no reason to revisit but I think I would be totally shocked with the change and hopefully I might pay a visit sometime. I can remember the old terminal very well and I remember that it was particularly busy on a Sunday afternoon with the apron full of BAF Heralds and BMA Viscounts.

It was busy all the time back in the '60s, much busier than the passenger figures for those years suggest because the Bristol Freighters, Carvairs and Vikings didn't carry many pax for a full load. On the other hand Channel Airways shoehorned in the maximum - 88 souls on board their DC-4....

I've just noticed a problem on Avios account details relating to SEN that will impact passengers ability to accrue points on the new Flybe routes operating from SEN and might put some people off from using SEN. SEN should get on Avios to have the issue sorted out quickly.

See details here:

http://www.pprune.org/9944250-post67.htmlhttp://www.pprune.org/9944250-post67.html

If reserved seats are a barometer of success (obviously some will leave it until they turn up at check-in), some might find these figures interesting for the rest of today's Stobart flights:

Dublin 77
Prague 73
Glasgow 46
Groningen 16
Manchester 5 & 5

The high number of pre-bookings for Dublin and Prague may just reflect that they are more leisure-orientated routes, nonetheless the last minute fares for MAN are also very low which must be a concern.

We could hold a sweepstake to guess how long Manchester lasts.

As for the terminal it looks long but very narrow. Is that the case?

Yes, long and narrow. You head upstairs in the middle to security then back down to departure lounge / gates. The arrivals area is to your right as you face the gates. It's small but should be extended by next summer.

I believe they're coping well with the additional Manchester numbers at the moment.

The terminal extension plans submitted last month show that the existing immigration hall will become part of an enlarged departure hall/gate area. The existing baggage reclaim will become the new immigration hall beyond which a new, much larger, baggage reclaim area will have room for three larger carousels for international arrivals. Beyond that will be domestic arrivals with one carousel.

In the interest of balance and more thorough analysis, a quick look at tomorrow morning shows 34 seats reserved southbound, though only 13 northbound. So clearly there is some variation between flights, echoing the poster that flew the route last weekend.

Not all these seats might be reserved either as the airline may have blocked off certain rows for trim purposes

Curious, has there been any advertising promoting the commuter time efficiency of travelling to/from Manchester by air versus rail?

My initial thoughts are people might perceive it more convenient to travel by train from London to Manchester as opposed to hauling your ass from the City to SEN then same other end on your arrival at Manchester back into the city centre. However, perceptions can often be different to the reality.

The Manchester numbers look disappointing for sure.

Thoughts?

Those aren't the final numbers as it doesn't take account of those without pre-booked seats that haven't checked in. Nonetheless, you wouldn't imagine final numbers to be particularly respectable.

I'm not sure this is a viable option for city-city in terms of time as the door to door train journey would surely be quicker, though with next-day return fares of £60 to £100 it is a cost effective option. I would doubt though that many people would even think to look at flights.

It is a good option if you need to travel from Southend's immediate local catchment (say, Essex/Thurrock/Barking etc) to Manchester or the north-west and for a weekend city break, but I just can't see enough demand. Neither do I think enough people connect through MAN to elsewhere.

I see another 1000 tickets are being given away. You have to wonder how many of those that have travelled to date have been on freebies.

I can only assume that one of Stobart's thoughts on SEN-MAN was that it would enable them to offer some very good onward connections for SEN catchment pax and for travellers on existing inbound flights to SEN such as GRQ and ANR. That's a sound argument and I'll think you will find that ABZ, BHD, IOM, EXT and, particularly, EDI are already attracting bookings. The problem is that the route is only viable if point-to-point traffic is sufficient to require the 3 x daily service that you really need to make the connection options attractive.

I've flown NWI-MAN mid-week on the D328 when there were 8 pax northbound and 11 coming back so even from a city where rail travel to MAN takes about 5 hours the demand for air travel is weak. The prospect of attracting pax from London to travel to MAN via SEN in any numbers seems unlikely to me simply because the first departure has no London train connection. MAN-SEN has greater possibilities where the only other air option involves arriving at LHR and still requiring a train journey into the City. Any promotion of the route should perhaps be focused at that market. I suspect that a large number of pax on the BA MAN-LHR route are connecting onwards from LHR.

To sum up, that's a lot of capacity to fill, initially at least, for the potential market is quite small and most will still find train travel more convenient and without excellent public surface transport to SEN the cards are stacked against you even further. It's obviously too early to make any judgements yet but things seem to be shaping up much as I anticipated.

Why the obsession on city centre to city centre travel?

I think you boys and girls need to take a chill pill

This is off peak at the start of new routes.

Have a look at NQY-MAN. It started smaller and has built up to decent numbers and then had a summer second rotation added which again sells really well.

MAN is probably 50% point to point and 50% connections both on BE and VS/EK etc

Starting with double daily was always going to prove difficult rather than starting small and building. But the aircraft need to fly somewhere. The route will build and prove successful I suspect.

There are two big differences though between NQY-MAN and SEN-MAN.

For point to point, Cornwall-Manchester is further by road than Essex-Manchester. The rail journey is much longer. For connections, there are plenty of non-stop and indirect options from London's airports whereas from Cornwall there are very few outside of the UK.

SEN-MAN is 3X daily.

If passenger numbers are in line with Stobart's expectations at this point, and they intend to play a long game then there's no problem. But we can be fairly certain that Manchester have not offered Stobart a stunning deal in the same way Groningen or Antwerp may have, so at some stage those rotations need to generate significant income just to break even.

Remember, when Stobart came along they saw the future as niche freight and regional passenger flights. They're now backing themselves to deliver the latter part of their own vision. I guess they'll give their choices every opportunity to come good.

cornishsimon..
Do you have any insight into standalone financial results concerning say NQY-MAN?.
You happily point out pax numbers when you constantly champion NQY, an airport & operation subsidised by the taxpayer & therefore not a natural font of commercial reality that the "boys & girls" on this thread are probably alluding to.
"But the aircraft need to fly somewhere" is not maybe Chapter One in any airline executive`s How To Operate A Successful Enterprise textbook either with all due respect.

No inside knowledge at all.

I know how much our TA pays to fly me too and from MAN or connect me through MAN, I know not the yields involved. But it costs considerably more to fly NQY-MAN than it does to fly SEN-MAN.

All I’m saying is that I think the route will grow the liter it’s left to bed in and the more codeshares and connections it serves.

It’s a bit too soon to be writing the route off in my opinion.

Before long you will end up with CX, EK, VS, AY etc codeshares and SEN will be opened up to a vast amount of airports that currently aren’t an option, the route will grow.

Am I missing something here?.
"CX,EK,VS,AY etc" are all available for SEN customers from a little field to the West called eerrr LHR!....
It has been pointed out SEN ain`t NQY in terms of geography.

The route is a week old and it will take time for people to realise it's there and remember when planning travel and to book.

With loads up to 40+ that I have seen so far it's OK, yes there are some flights with very low numbers, but some are decent.

I remember when RNS started and used to carry 8 people at a time ...

LHR from Southend is not a pleasant trip.. any one trying to get to west London from Essex today was in for a nasty shock.. plus factoring the three hours before your flight to be safe..

Flying to MAN doesn't seem that bad .. In Fact flying to Amsterdam is less hassle. Apart from the taxing!

That will change when Crossrail opens next year. Crossrail could be a double edged sword for Southend. It could help bring passengers into the airport but will also make it quicker for natural Southend passengers to get to the main London rail terminals and Heathrow.

Also worth noting that the travel time from Stratford to Heathrow will be quicker than to Southend Airport.

It's true that it will take 3 minutes less to reach Heathrow T2,3 on Crossrail from Stratford than Southend Airport by train, but as been pointed out before, unless things change dramatically the train to departure gate will lose you a great deal more than 3 minutes at LHR.

Remember there will be no direct service from Stratford to Heathrow until December 2019. The central Liverpool St to Paddington section will open then linking east to west. So the SEN-MAN flights have a couple of years to prove their worth before the threat that LTNman talks about. Time enough to become established if the demand exists.

By the same token it will make it quicker for pax arriving at SEN to reach their various London destinations, including the main rail terminals. I'm sure that overall Crossrail will be advantageous for SEN.

Anyone thinking that the road journey from Southend to Heathrow is worth doing unless you absolutely have to......... hasn't tried to drive it.

The last posters are taking my comment concerning SEN & LHR far far too literally.
I stated SEN CUSTOMERS have a choice of LHR for the hub connectors NOT Southend residents per se as has been misinterpreted with parochial comments as above.
There is a subtle & not so subtle difference between those two components & description.
Unless of course MAN is just pitched at the worthy residents of Southend only.

Fair point, SB. Having made that journey around the M25 a number of times you touched a raw nerve!

Just returned (thank goodness) from a eight days in the UK on family business and had to travel on the M25 a few times. What a nightmare, spent quite a time stopped near Heathrow watching aircraft taking off while in the car not moving. How on earth people put up with it each day I do not know. As for the Manchester route give it time but I would be surprised if it lasted into next summer.

Stationery on the M25 near Heathrow in either direction is a daily occurrence. Watching the take-offs (westerly) and landings (easterly) helps reduce the frustration.

So now we're into November do we assume that the new airline isn't coming now?

When did they first announce news on this and more importantly when did they state it come become active?

Now that date has passed, is there any update?

I think wider events in the UK airline industry of late have contributed to the planned operation possibly being postponed. I cannot elaborate on that I'm afraid.

That is a shame for SEN, but understandable.

Sorry I have lost it. Who was meant to have come and didn't:confused:

There was some talk about a month ago from top hat that a New British airline were about to announce starting sen next year with 4 based aircraft. Hey ho not to be it seems.

Ah that's the big question Ltnman. There has been rumour and conjecture, spiced up with secret squirrel posts
for months.

I think there was something going on, but it wouldn't surprise me if Stobart messed up the negotiations, after all their track record doesn't fill me with confidence.

I don't think that was the case. It was for reasons over which Stobart simply had no control.

There aren't that many UK based airlines that can use the runway at SEN so it should just be a matter of elimination. We can exlclude Aurigny, Blue Islands and Loganair. BMI Regional might be a possibility as they would most probably like a near-London base. Could Thomas Cook base their A321 fleet at SEN? Don't think the runway is sufficient for their needs. Do we exclude the B737/757 operators due to runway restrictions? If we do, that then leaves BA (who have their hubs and most probably don't need another one) and....BA City Flyer!

I'm scratching my head about what has happened recently in the UK airline sector to make a possible deal fall over? Surely not Monarch?

Airlines will look to replace lost capacity at former ZB hubs before looking to SEN. LGW and MAN will be the first that airlines look to replace capacity as they are both slot constrained.

EZY are looking to replace capacity at MAN in addition to Jet2 further expanding at both BHX & MAN for S18.

SEN will likely not see major expansion until at least 2019 when Brexit negotiations have been completed and lost capacity from former Monarch hubs is replaced.