Ryanair - 8
 

I have opened this new Ryanair thread due to Ryanair-7 being closed,
I think due to an error, the last post most if not all of us could see was from
the 28thOct ... so what did we miss ? anything ?

As daz211 says, the other thread was closed - because of a database problem.

So this thread is restored. Please do keep to topic and if you cannot find fact to debate - DON't make it up.

Enjoy.

AA&R Mods

the song has a point
 

Hi all,

found a new song about Ryanair by Fascinating Aida. I think it shows that the 1 euro flight is well past its sell buy date.

YouTube - FASCINATING AIDA - Cheap Flights

I guess the MOL would use this as an advert!

Barcelona base goes to 8 aircraft as of today. UK bases all dramatically cut excluding Edinburgh and Leeds. Edinburgh has as many flights today as in the summer if not more by looking at the BAA website, however a lot of flights now operated from other bases. The damaging £12 APD is obviously having it's effects felt across most UK airports.

An interesting winter expansion has been at Gothenburg City, lots of new flights for the winter schedule.

The only thing crazy is the lack of Ski flights this year, Grenoble isn't being operated from nearly every UK base as it was in the past 2 years.

Malaga seems to have lost a lot of flights, surprisingly so as I would have thought very low frequencies to Germany/Scandinavia would have worked well this winter.

The base announcements have gone quiet as of late, still expecting TFS/LPA/ACE/PMI/CPH/LIS all to be in the running with maybe TLL aswell. It will be interesting to see what the summer schedule will look like once released in the next few months.

£12 APD is only a small rise of £1, the big changes are to long haul. I would expect Easyjet and Ryanair may even gain from the changes as people in the UK fky to spain or italy instead of US or Aus.

Ryanair summer 2011 to be on sale over the next week or two. Around half of DUB summer 2011 went on sale on Friday.

Lisbon as a base should be announced shortly as the only problem with it is the FR want to use the domestic terminal to achieve the 25min turnaround which can't be done in the International terminal.

CPH were giving FR a €20 discount per passenger and FR are still not happy about it.

As for Gothenburg I think a base will be there sometime during 2011

Malaga will have 2 a/c based for the winter compared to 4 in the summer.

Summer 2011
 

Summer 2011 now on sale for Liverpool John Lennon.:\

Derry - Alicante?
 

Is Derry - Alicante being dropped or is it just late being loaded for Summer 2011?

Most routes that are operating for summer 2011 show as operating but no yet bookable but LDY - ALC shows nothing. With an average load factor of 75% it dosn't look good as Ryanair like the load factors to be over 84%.

Might as well post today's half year results highlights!

- 17% increase in half year Profit to €452m
- Revenues rose 23% to €2.2bln
- Traffic grew by 10% to 40.1m passengers
- Average fares rose by 12%
- Unit costs rose by 13% (excluding fuel they rose by 4%)
- Sector length increased by 12%
- Full year Net Profit guidance increased to €380m-€400m range

What were the BHD load factors to STN, EMA, LPL, PIK and BRS?

Not sure but 84% on a route between Ireland or UK and Spain is the least you would expect. Anyway FR drop routes which don't make a profit.

Routes between UK & Ireland are different. Not sure about BHO but I think they would of being around 75% - 100%.

Based

They are a cracking set of half year results and MO'L was in good form this morning on Sky with Eamonn Holmes.

O'Leary, Fat Eamonn and Sky TV - a truly appalling combination.

Reading the presentation, costs appear to be presented - having risen in absolute % terms, but (ignoring fuel) having fallen when one makes an adjustment for increased sector length.

I don't have full details, but it would seem that if one makes a similiar adjustment based on increased sector length for revenue, then FR has probably seen ticket revenue unchanged in 2010 compared to 2009.

It seems to me that if you want to make an adjustment to the accounts because of a significant change in the business model - i.e. increased sector length - then one has to make that adjustment to both revenue and costs at the same time. Adjusting one but not the other to flatter the presented accounts seems like a bit of hocus-pocus to me.

Or am I missing something here ?

But also a plane that does nothing also does not make a profit. FR are cutting so many routes and dropping bases that it will have lots if idle planes with more flying in each year. Also the oil price has just hit a 6 month high and is expect to rise a lot more.

Even if they paid for 8 aircraft up front and in full, they would have posted a half year profit and, based on current guidance, a full year profit. Nice position to be in!

Until their average fare is higher than one of their competitors.

Any Ryanair aircraft on the ground have helped facilitate current profits which would have been lower if they were flying. As a matter of interest, how many idle aircraft are you projecting befree? Fuel costs are outlined in their half year presentation - 90% of FY11 hedged at $730pmt, 60% of FY12 hedged at $760pmt. Also what's your current thoughts on your predictions made earlier this year?

Is this the replacement for Ryr 7? New piece on French staff
 

I assume so....

Here - "Chez Ryanair, pour récupérer sa retraite, il faut aller en Irlande" | La Provence

if you read French, is a piece about Ryr staff conditions, poorly researched and/or badly edited, doesn't read logically. However it does indicate a race to the bottom by M. O'L. One might hope that if he ever gets a case heard at EU level they might suggest that other countries raise their game to ensure better protection for workers.

I'll be happy to provide a translation but try Google....

Bye, Barry

Are you sure that 'Fully completed and currently gathering dust' is correct?

Really ?

So how does aircraft that supposedly were not to be delivered until last quarter of year impact on results to end of September ?

Ryanair's half year is from April to September.

Completely and utterly irrelevant as defering a decision for delivery supposedly in second half of year (if that is what occurred) has no relevance to first half year results.

ASFKAP wrote : "Some of them were due for delivery in October...."

And indeed, three were last Friday (and three a couple of weeks earlier IIRC) - and all have entered service this week, with two frames stood down. A recent report on an e-mail list compared Renton to Stansted with a number of FR aircraft undertaking their test flights.

MD

In just the half year
That is an extra 200 million euros for the summer. They will fly a lot less in the winter but still face a big hike in fuel costs.

They are also returning planes to leaser instead of selling the ones they own. This reduce the price they can get for the ones they own later.

It also is clear they will find it impossble to have +12% fares in the winter.

ASFKAP, you miss the point. I assume you're aware that the aircraft wouldn't have been paid for up front even if they had been delivered in H1 - being able to do so and still report a profit is impressive though. In reality, even if they took delivery of 8 aircraft on April 1st the impact on the current half year's profit wouldn't have exceeded €10m (assuming they're not needed and sitting on the ground). So now we have a €442 million profit for H1 - I'd hardly call that a 'whole different slant on yesterday's figures'.

An extra €200m and still able to report €452m profit. Their per unit winter fuel costs will be broadly the same as H1 (obviously less overall due to less flights overall) given that 90% of Q3 is hedged at $730pmt and 90% of Q4 at $745pmt.

It's also impossible (or at least highly improbable) that they will have +40% fares this winter. Or that they will carry 300 million passengers. Given that they haven't targeted either of these figures then who cares? Based on the +12% H1 increase and Q3 forward bookings, full year yield increase is expected to be at the upper end of the +5% to +10% range they previously guided.

Now you have it ASFKAP! Aviation is a seasonal business, there's a significant possibility that flying any more aircraft than they have currently scheduled for the winter would result in a lower full year profit. Therefore not flying some aircraft, rather than flying them, will in fact help improve profits!

So if they fly less in the winter how will they face a big hike in fuel prices ?

I could be wrong BUT when an aircraft is on the ground with no engines running the fuel burn rate is exceedingly low but you no doubt will say something differently.

RBS arm backing Ryanair's aircraft deal - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

Why would it be as all they are doing is keeping to the terms of agreements signed in 2003 with RBS Aviation Capitol.

Agreed - an aircraft that isn't flying won't generate any revenue. Indeed it will cost money sitting around. However if the revenue you generate from flying it is less than the extra direct operating costs incurred through flying then it may be more finacially prudent to leave it on the ground.

A glass half full person might say this makes better profits over the year.
A glass half empty person might prefer to say you are just making less of a loss.
Both arguably are correct!

Leeds Bradford Summer 2011
 

Summer 2011 now out for most destinations for Leeds Bradford and it looks as though there will be a 3rd based aircraft at Leeds Bradford for Summer 2011.

Mondays for example:

Aircraft 1:

06:30 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 08:40
09:05 - Leeds - Palma - Leeds - 15:00
15:45 - Leeds - Murcia - Leeds - 22:15

Aircraft 2

06:50 - Leeds - Fuerteventura - Leeds - 16:15
17:20 - Leeds - Malaga - Leeds - 23:55

Aircraft 3

07:05 - Leeds - Nantes - Leeds - 11:10
11:35 - Leeds - Montpellier - Leeds - 16:30
16:55 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 18:55

Some increases:- Fuerteventura carries through from winter. New Palma Saturday flight, new Sunday Malaga flight.

And therefore not contributing towards a reduction in this year's profits.

There will only be 2 based a/c. The days and times that the routes operate will be changer over the next few weeks.

It will be DUB - LBA - DUB with DUB based a/c

Has Ryanair cancelled Alicante to Derry for 2011 no flights are appearing in the timetable but others are

Winter
 

Ryanair had for many years been able to fly at very low cost over the winter and make small profits on many routes all year.

higher costs means that filling planes at very low seat prices makes a loss in winter. Ryanair is losing a lot of the off peak traffic that made the buisness model work so well 5 years ago. He has also lost the ablity to buy planes for so much less than he could sell them for after a few years. The owned planes could suffer a big write down in value on sale. The alternative is for him to fly an aging fleet. Others like Easyjet could then get the next generation of planes and overtake MOL.

Nope there were many routes loss making during winter but thats why you have reduced services

Which low seat prices is this ? The ones where they have increased since last year ?

As for U2 overtaking FR ..............with what exactly ?

FR is still buying planes cheaply with 64 due in 11 and 12 and options up to 2014 for up to 173 more.

You keep coming on here with idle speculation with not a single bit of fact and then make something up for the next time when asked for detail.

What does it mean?
 

I have been checking flights from Alicante to various destinations and when looking for example at July next year a lot simply display 7 airplanes with a red line through them. I presume this means the flights for next year are not yet loaded.

But when checking Alicante to Derry it displays no planes. It is the only destination to do this. Is this significant? Does it mean ALC-LDY is for the axe.

Ryanair have dropped another digit on the traffic number for october. last month they claim to have sold 6.84M this month it 7.0M.

the half year slid shows has them going up to 299 planes at the end of 2013 but I cannot see where they are going to park all the ones that they do not have profitable routes. It seems FR are cutting in Ireland, UK, Germany and France. Having 64 more planes coming though the door and onto the books seems like very bad news.

When I give facts they are just ignored by racodo.
look at when they made a pre-tax pre exceptional profit in winter (H2)
In 2006/7
H1 profit 329m euro - full year 401 m euro hence 72 million euro profit in winter
in 2007/8
H1 profit 408m euro - full year 481 m euro - hence 73 million profit in winter.

now they are going to make a 50m to 70m loss in winter

Befree

Nope they have not said they are going to make a loss in Winter, they were very clear that while they have some indication of revenue numbers for Q3, they were not in a position to state as such for Q4.
"Our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year remains cautious as we have little visibility on Q4 yields."
They stated using caveat above that their profit will be at top end of forecast but thats subject to lots of things.

As for parking planes well I think we can go back 2 year when everyone was stating with absolute fact that Ryanair couldn't take delivery of 42 planes last year, yet they did and grew traffic accordingly. by 7.6 Million passengers.

They also have already taken delivery of 45 aircraft in this calendar year and grown passenger numbers by 7.2 Million.

Face it yet again you are caught by your own posts.

racedo the worry is that there is a never ending list of Ryanair haters who will queue up to rehash the same old argument that was aired and settled ten pages back.

The logical leap from "Things are tougher than they were in better days" to Private Fraser's "We're doooooooomed" is a rather large one in the case of growing cash rich company like Ryanair. It's a fascinating take on the human condition watching people queue up to bash 'em, as from any perspective most airlines are
1) Less punctual
2) Fly older aircraft
3) Don't fly to as many places in Europe
4) but are far less enthralling!

Ryanair are clearly screwed. Why? Because.

racedo one cannot argue with that but my compliments for trying, and being informative if occasionally selective.....

;)...............

racedo & Skipness One Echo,

Cannot fault your latest posts....

MM