Brilliant - one of those things I've wondered since living on the flight path and/or standing on the airport roof all those years ago and who better to answer it than a Dan Air pilot! Thanks

Now for the other questions I have.....

NB inoban was tongue in cheek - genuine disappointment that it wasn't dan air related!

Sounds like time for the airport to start using its pricing deals with airlines to incentivise behaviour and route selections in the way some others do. Not difficult but it tends to avoid certain routes becoming bunfights and sustainable development occurring.

And on the Dan 737s - I'm sure it was to do with performance. I thought BMDF used to have better weights or engines than BLDE (and BJXJ before it went to Britannia) so could do Berlin/Tenerife non-stop which the others couldn't. I can't immediately find anything on-line prove that but DF definitely spent most of its time in Berlin and was rarely seen in the UK and DE (usually accompanied by 727 G-BAJW) spent most of the time in Newcastle. DF also had the unusual distinction of operating for almost a year with a -15 engine on one side and a -17 on the other though. Never seen that before or since.

Wardair services became schedules in 1987. #nostalgia :)
Dan Air had their own ops handling as well on 131.875. Changed days.

I would not be surprised if DF was slightly lighter than DE. Memory says they both had the same engine type.

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/could-heathrow-expansion-hurt-north-13611492.amp

AUG stats are now available on the airport website

Pax 624,233 (581,513 Aug 2016)

Very close (+/- 10,000 pax) to record monthy pax numbers that we hit in 2007. If we get any expansion announced for next year, we could be on to 2018 being a record year.

6 million isn't looking as unattainable as it might have over the last few years. I reckon its within 12/18 months of us proving we see some expansion

It only needs an average of 500,000 a month

We are very seasonal though, yes we can get 500,000+ May-September, and 600,000 in July and August, but outside of that we barely scrape 250-300,000.

If growth remains the same, we could then look at hitting 500,000 reliably through April and October and hitting above 300,000 in the weakest months, January, February and November. With this, 650-700,000 could be attainable in July and August.

5 months - 500,000+
5 months - 300,000+
2 months - 600,000+

Would give us an absolute minimum of 5.5 million.

I have been on night shift and had too much time on my hands... So I sat and did this last night. Obviously it's very rough, but if growth remains at 12% we'll hit 6 million in 2018

01/17 - 280,200 (+16.8%) 01/18 - ? 314,328
02/17 - 287,609 (+12.3%) 02/18 - ? 322,639
03/17 - 334,553 (+11.2%) 03/18 - ? 375,301
04/17 - 407,599 (+18.0%) 04/18 - ? 457,245
05/17 - 510,342 (+13.1%) 05/18 - ? 572,501
06/17 - 587,953 (+10.8%) 06/18 - ? 659,566
07/17 - 618,365 (+15.1%) 07/18 - ? 693,681
08/17 - 624,233 (+7.30%) 08/18 - ? 700,264
09/16 - 534,516 (+7.00%) 09/17 - ? 599,620 -> 09/18 - 672,654
10/16 - 444,660 (+6.30%) 10/17 - ? 498,819 -> 10/18 - 559,575
11/16 - 296,167 (+9.80%) 11/17 - ? 332,240 -> 11/18 - 372,703
12/16 - 305,842 (+18.4%) 12/17 - ? 343,094 -> 12/18 - 384,883
(Avg % increase 12.18%)

Total (12 month rolling) - 5,232,039 --- 2017 estimate - 5,424,627
2018 estimate: 6,085,340 (based on 12.18% growth, 2016-2017, 2017-2018)

For this to happen though, we'd need equivalent growth from last year. So realistically we're talking about needing 3/4 new year round FR/EZY routes (x2 or more weekly) as well as 2 or more high frequency summer routes (x4 weekly - Daily)

Alternatively, but less likely, a 4th based EZY frame, or an 8th 737 from Jet2 would likely achieve the same

All we can do is wait... But it's fun to speculate

Thanks for the figures
TCX will be 3x 321 next summer rather than 2x321 and 1x320

All seats helps

Is this confirmed now ? Seat map still showing as A320 on various flights ? Seat maps not updated ?

I know it's been discussed here before but one route that doesn't seem to help push numbers up is Bristol. I have to travel to the South West for work and am always shocked at the poor schedule compared to the 4 daily (?) flights that there once was. When I have flown the flights are packed but who wants to leave NCL at around 9pm (assuming the last flight of the day is not delayed) on Tues/Wed/thurs? We went to LHR instead in July and got a mini bus from there for convenience rather than cost. Next month I'll get the train down on Wednesday morning and perhaps fly back on Friday night but I doubt I'm alone finding this frustrating. Wasnt this something like the busiest English (none London) domestic route at some point? Even the Brymon dash 7's provided a better service than this!!

Also used to use STN very frequently (always full as well) and having had some recent horrific trips driving to Essex would love it to make a comeback. But I know it's about profit rather than bums on seats....

Final thought, on possible new routes I'm also surprised the Dominican Republic has never made a comeback from NCL especially with the troubles in Egypt and Tunisa. Went in 2006 on the MON a330 and remember it being relatively cheap for a good hotel but perhaps we just got a bargain.

I'm also a regular user of NCL-BRS-NCL, and the schedule is pretty appalling... Even Belfast isn't amazing anymore.

I hope to God that one day Bmi regional will pick up NCL-BRS, I think they could easily work 2/3 daily flights alongside easyjet.

EVEN a twice daily Bmir/Loganair co-operation out of Durham Tees Valley would probably have me, as opposed to dragging myself an hour and a half through Bristol at midnight coming from NCL on easyjet.

Again, I hope we'll see Ryanair do NCL-STN or easyjet bring back NCL-LGW with the new connection opportunities available, but I doubt it

I would loved to have used the Madrid flight to go on to Seville but I wouldn't have landed at Seville until after 11pm which I didn't fancy.

Do the airlines even realise that flight times can be make or break for a route?

Makes you wonder how RYR and EZY have managed to become amongst the largest airlines in Europe :rolleyes:

Does anyone know what the loads are like on the MAD flights?

And Jet2 are challenging with "convenient flight times" being one of their USP's!

"convenient flight times" = lower utilisation. Be interesting to see if they can maintain this USP now the newer fleet has to be paid for.

Loads on Madrid are fairly good but don't know about yield.

If you want Seville, best place to fly to is Malaga or Faro then ground transport from there on.

Speaking of Faro loads - not always particularly great.

There are 2 flights a day to Cardiff with better timings that could be used as alternative for the South West.