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Thai language TV and news suggest approach was to 09
Looking at thai language newspapers and TV today, I note that TV Animations (and newspaper graphics) suggest that the incident approach was for 09. Time will tell.
Predominant wx at this time of the year is still sw monsoon, usually favouring 27. example METAR/TAF for today: METAR: VTSP 171100Z 34004KT 3000 RA SCT010 BKN100 BKN300 24/22 Q1008 A2977 TAF: VTSP 170930Z 171212 24010KT 9000 SCT020 SCT120 BKN300 TEMPO 1216 24010G25KT 3000 TSRA/SHRA FEW016CB SCT020 BKN100 A sad day indeed. |
Should the PNL details and 'status' be on pprune? |
windshear during go around?
It has happened before (july 2 1994, KCLT USA).
I think it is safe to assume the wx was worse than the METAR indicates. That a go around is almost always the safest course of action. But if windshear is encountered as the plane is being configured for go around, how ready would any pilot really be? |
" One-Two-GO is extremely regretful over the accident of OG269 DMK-HKT that skidded off the runway at Phuket International Airport yesterday. We will definitely provide supports and take full responsibility on every injured and killed passenger at our best attempt. For any inquiries such as names of passengers on board, how to pick up passenger’s relatives to the point of accident including responsibility of corpse transportation, please directly contact the following One-Two-GO hotline numbers."
Not the most discreet form of regret..... Perhaps it lost something in translation |
Here is a video with an airborne shot of the crash site.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/new...m&asb=1&news=1 |
From the Bangkok Post. A Thai passenger, Chawalert Jitjamnong, who suffered back injury fleeing the chaos, said the plane's captain had notified the passengers the ''weather was very bad and he could see nothing'' only a short time before he lost control of the plane and it went skidding off the runway. Surely in a similar situation at say Gatwick Airport there would be no problem with landing in near non existent visibility. |
Was the MD aircraft in question not equipped for a fully blind landing in zero visibility or does Phuket airport not have the necessary equipment installed? |
Orient Thai.......mmm, been an accident looking for a map reference for a long time. .............Know a few guys who have worked there and as soon as they find someone who will do the job for $500 a month less than you, it suddenly becomes very difficult to renew your thai vailidation !!!! These are the guys who sacked the pilot who tried to stop some phillipino mafia pilots from signing their licences after a four hour sim session which was videod with the "in sim" video during which time they played cards for 4 hours..............and is anyone in the know suprised they wipe an MD 80.........er..................NO !!!!
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Was the MD aircraft in question not equipped for a fully blind landing in zero visibility or does Phuket airport not have the necessary equipment installed? Surely in a similar situation at say Gatwick Airport there would be no problem with landing in near non existent visibility. |
Re: 09 or 27
Most journalists are not aware that runway "numbers" are magnetic bearings.
We can probably put the claims of a 09 approach down to their thinking "runway 9" is just the name for that strip of concrete. |
A predicted eventuality??????
Being one of the expat pilots who flew for OX for two years, I can say that this was predicted by most of us who worked there and were eventually looking for safer pastures.
A Thai pilot training program was introduced in late 2005 for the MD82's where the average First Officer candidate had 200 hours total time and was paid 1000 USD a month. Indonesion Captains who were willing to work for 4500 USD a month. 6 days off a month with up to six legs or more a day. Duty time or flight time limitations? Are you kidding? Add into that equation that the aircraft probably had mutiple MEL's that had been deferred beyond the due dates on more than one occasion. Now mix in an ILS approach, an offset localizer, 460 feet minimums and yes he did land on runway 27, with a missed approach point 1.8 km from the end of the runway. Tell me.....how did he get so close to the runway with NO visual contact as reported by the surviving pax and the tower report that he was going missed? Perchance...did the Captain set his own minimums, after all he was a seasoned Indonesion Captain and the Air Carriers he formerly worked for have been banned in the EU due to lack of proper pilot training and safety issues. But all of this is speculation on my part. I only worked there two years and survived. A sad day that should not have happened if there was proper oversight from the Thai DCA. |
Mini Cooper wrote:"A tragic accident. The METARS suggest nothing too bad weatherwise, however evidently something was not quite right. This guy tries an approach from what I hear and he quite rightly doesn't like it so goes around - good call. Why then did he try again straight away - maybe press-onitis, maybe he was watching the fuels guages and didn't have the option of holding, maybe he hadn't thought about taking extra fuel before leaving Bangkok or maybe the company pressurised him to take flight plan fuel and no more??. You know the scenario, short flight, weather seems ok, 3% or 5% contingency fuel on a short flight in reality is NOT MUCH, the weather changes unexpectedly, hence he tries again as the options are running out. Maybe the vis wasn't too good but not bad enough for this to happen. We will have to wait and see the outcome. Don't want to put blame soley on him, maybe company has to take some blame.
Again a tragic accident - there but the grace of god go many of us - IF IN DOUBT TAKE MORE FUEL - GIVES YOU OPTIONS." sizematters wrote:"Orient Thai.......mmm, been an accident looking for a map reference for a long time. .............Know a few guys who have worked there and as soon as they find someone who will do the job for $500 a month less than you, it suddenly becomes very difficult to renew your thai vailidation !!!! These are the guys who sacked the pilot who tried to stop some phillipino mafia pilots from signing their licences after a four hour sim session which was videod with the "in sim" video during which time they played cards for 4 hours..............and is anyone in the know suprised they wipe an MD 80.........er..................NO !!!!" -------------------------- ------------------------------- I wonder how much commercial pressure there is on the crew to land ? I know Phuket and a sudden squall can give you quite a drenching. I was out in a longtail boat once when it happened. I would have been drier had I been swimming in my clothes ! What is the windshear accompanying this type of weather ? I was once told that analysts thought a likely difficult scenario would be a MD-80 series aircraft getting caught in wake vortex on the approach by a preceeding heavy aircraft. Yet the MD-80 series are very reliable and excellent revenue earners. I have also heard they are not the easiest to land. One Thai newspaper described the specification of the MD-82 = Faster than the speed of sound .76 - Of course they meant Mach .76 - Yet this is the understanding one gets from newspapers. One has to be concerned for the families that have lost; but unless there is a thorough and open investigation it will happen again. At the time of the 1998 accident in Surathani there were comments that a VIP on board insisted they land. That sort of thing happens in Thailand. On commercial pressure, "If you think safe is expensive, wait till you have an accident!" Unfortunately these days 'beancounters' run the show. The effect of cost cutting on safety must be addressed. |
Just a couple of things to add...
Indeed, SW monsoon is still in full swing out west in Thailand. It usually clears up around late October. It's particularly heavy this year and is affecting the east coast considerably also, which is unusual. NE monsoon was light this year (Nov-Feb), and when this happens it's not unusual for the opposing monsoon (SW) to be more brutal. WX at Krabi was considerably better, although raining. I assume this was the alternative...? |
Thai and Indonesian airlines due to low achievable ticket prices end up buying 20 plus year old jets that require careful maintenance. But these jets fly often with deferred maintenance work. They hire the least expensive and qualified pilots that money can buy. Fly in areas with often horrendous weather into airports that don't have the latest ILS equipment on jets that dont have the latest equipment either. The only wonder really is that they are not dropping out of the skies daily.
Very tragic loss of life here. But as many believe, the odds of such an accident were greatly enhanced by all the factors. Maybe its not really an "accident" then in such circumstances. Its an eventuality. |
ILS details etc...
For those of you who can understand this kind of stuff and don't wish to speculate ;) a quick Google search revealed HKT's navigational specs at this address: http://www.aviation.go.th/technical/nav/phuket.htm
Interesting to note that in true Thai style, a surreptitious public blame game has already started in the Thai media... "Probe Looks At Human Error" http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007...s_30049332.php Notwithstanding, I live in hope and wish for the best for everyone affected. My deepest sympathy. |
From The Nation:
A source at the Aeronautical Radio of Thailand (Aerothai), which oversees air traffic control in the country, said the traffic controllers at Phuket International Airport had informed the pilot about the bad weather conditions. "The final decision on whether to land was made by the pilot, we only gave him the conditions," said the source who asked not to be named. According to the source, besides the heavy rain and bad visibility, there was 30-knot crosswind at the airport at the very moment the plane attempted to landing. "It was a very strong crosswind. The pilot should not have landed," said the source. The bad weather conditions in Phuket on Sunday were confirmed by the Meteorological Department. Chamnong Jitphakdee, director of southern meteorological office, who said that Phuket was affected by severe storms around 3pm and he had to update the traffic control tower every 30 minutes. Chaisak, who is also chairman of Aerothai, reckoned the pilot of OG 269 might have thought the landing would not a problem as another aircraft, also belonging to Orient Thai airlines, had landed just minutes before. Chaisak said he was informed the OG 269 pilot had tried to land twice. On the second attempt, he said, the pilot again informed air traffic control that he would go round again. "It happened very fast. Just minutes after he talked to the traffic controllers, the plane crashed as it lost balance and the fuselage tilted to the right," said Chaisak, adding that the landing gear "was not down" when it crashed heavily on the runway. However, some passengers said the landing gear was lowered to prepare for landing because the plane had skidded off the runway. Some witnesses said they heard a series of explosions before the plane crashed. Chaisak admitted that he heard a conversation between the pilot and air traffic controllers which was recorded by air traffic controllers. However, he hadn't released the recording, saying there was "nothing special" about the conversation. "It was just normal conversation that every pilot has when talking to air traffic controllers before landing," he said. Udom Tantiprasongchai, founder and chairman of Orient Thai Airlines, which own One-Two-Go, said it was too early to point the finger at the pilot. "He is chief of the One-Two-Go's pilots with long term experience flying passenger planes," he said referred to the Indonesian pilot "Ariff", as many Indonesians use only one name. Udom said all parties should wait for the results of the black boxes. "I've heard someone questions about why we use an Indonesian pilot. I beg you all not to focus on the nationality of any pilot. The most important thing is their skill and experience," he said. Ariff, an experienced passenger pilot with several Indonesian airlines, had reportedly worked with One-Two-go for almost three years and had flown to Phuket many times, said Udom. A source from Aerothai said all air traffic controllers stationed at Phuket airport when the crash took place have been temporarily moved to ground staff positions. "From the control tower they saw everything and broke into tears the moment the plane crashed," said the source. Kanit Phromsatit, a pilot with THAI Airways, said the judgement of a pilot when landing in bad weather condition was crucial and admitted that Phuket Airport was a difficult place to land being encircled by mountains. "The plane had been is use for 12 years. Normally, any plane should have at least 15 years good service," he said. |
In the MD-80 International Forum, sources close to One-Two-Go report that the deceased Captain Arief M., 56, Indonesian, had lost his medical earlier this year, but was nevertheless flying, despite having been grounded for two months. He was the Chief Pilot of One-Two-Go and a retired air force officer.
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Let us not point the finger of blame on the captain. As any pilot who has ever flown in the tropics knows the heavy rain and gusty conditions of the monsoon season are a challenge. Commercial air traffic operates in these scenarios every day.
It has been suggested that the captain had lost his medical. However the first officer was a Thai and likely to be young and experienced. Accidents happen. How many of us can admit to never having been in a similar situation. |
As for someone commenting on the MD-80 not being the easiest to land, I wouldn't agree, however there are two points to make here. The plane is tricky in only two situations: when it is empty and light (which was obviously not the case here), when it tends to overreact to any control inputs, and secondly, with a far-aft trim situation, when it will require a lot of flare to come down gently. In such a situation, it is also possible that the A/P trim will not be able to keep up with the sudden change in attitude and power in the initial stages of the go-around, and might disconnect, which might, hypothetically lead to a situation where they might have still been in auto g/a mode, the autopilot disconnected, and the pilot didn't manage to hold it against the weather. However, this is, in my opinion, unlikely.
Again, just my personal MD experience, and 2 cents. Additionally, as far as flying goes, the MD-82/83 is a great plane to fly. Basically handles like an overgrown Cessna, and 30kt+ crosswind gusts are regular thing from the base we operate from here. Sad day, anyhow. |
Phil Space; the First Officer was reported as an "engineer turned pilot" and his experience was from One-Two-Go's ab initio program. He had performed well, though, and was about to join Thai Airways in October.
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I wonder where the OG management's talk about a "12 year old" airplane comes from. If the pax manifest carries the correct reg, the plane was an early-production 24 year old ex-TWA.
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OG management's talk about a "12 year old" airplane |
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I have to put my hand up as an old pilot but not bold pilot.
Having flown across most of the world in my own light aircraft over 25 years I know when to say no. Turning back is never easy. I suspect a lot harder when you have pax in the back. This was an old pilot/young sprog in conditions that you want to say no. In my aircraft I say no. Flying a bus or truck is a different matter. Take a look at the Halifax MK accident. Cheap crew and pressure. Corporate pressure is to blame here. |
Phil;
Re, Corporate pressure is to blame here. In information-gathering stages of investigation, the immediacy of data such as DFDRs, CVRs, METARS (both official, and, I see, "unofficial" (rapidly unfolding/changing wx, perhaps?) must be intelligently interpreted and combined with the gathering of "softer" information which is typically the human-factors side such as the obvious crew history as well as the factors which you have mentioned here. Corporate pressures absolutely play a role in employee behaviours but cannot be singled out, first because such a project demands a very wide examination of cultures and not just this one accident. We only know that there is a smoking mess where there was once an airplane. All the rest is speculation - some of it reasonably conceived, a though I have expressed elsewhere, but much of it is still in the "eye/ear-witness accounts and second/third-hand anecdotes stage. Such anecdotes do point somewhat, but all possibilities must remain open until eliminated through the data. "Soft" causes such as fatigue-related crew error, while having made it into accident reports a few times, (the Guantanamo accident is one of the few which cite fatigue as a primary cause, the AA1420 Little Rock accident comes close), but reports generally favour hard data because change is so difficult to cite and support in soft causes. (Don't get me wrong though - I have been fighting the fatigue-issue for years and Canada still has a long way to go in escaping a Monrovia-like regulatory environment when it comes to fatigue-risk management. - sorry for the momentary lapse!) I cite these broader examples because they each have arisen in this thread as "the" cause of this terrible tragedy. Not so. There is only the possibility of a hierarchy of causes at present, and unless there is an unequivocal, immediate cause such as a deployed reverser, we must be cautious, (I am not citing this as a potential "cause", I am expressing the notion of "clear-and-present" mechanical "failure" such as the Cranbrook B737 accident, vice what are almost certainly broader factors which must be considered as speculation turns to knowledge). Almost certainly, "one factor" will not be the case here and so speculation must take that into account. BTW, I sure like your approach....it takes a short time to teach someone how to fly but it takes a lifetime to teach them when not to... :bored: |
Windshear Warning Issued Prior To Landing
accoding to an AP report in an Australian Newspaper, the tower issued a windshear warning prior to the crash...pilot elected to continue.
try google news "windshear" as copyrighted articles are not allowed to be posted. |
Phuket weather is always unstable.
Having said that the UK is a lot worse. Thailand is an easy country to fly across with very predictable weather. We do not yet know the full details on this accident but as a private pilot I would have sat on the ground elsewhere or at the worst turned back. CPL's employed by budget airlines do not have the same choice. Get home itus is the biggest killer. What I find amazing is the fact that very experienced CP pilots forget the basics and never fly small aircraft that bite in bad weather very quickly. |
Amazing amateur video, moments after crash
Incredible footage apparently shot by a survivor; also helps suggest how seconds can make the difference for survival:
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/videot/?id=1437166&ap=1 (footage after an ad) Note: Thanks to alexmcfire for correcting my original post. The video was shot by a Swede who survived. |
Wideman, it´s shot by one of the two Swedes who survived, they sat at the
emergency exit and was the first off the plane. |
So much for the emergency response ...
Anyone like to extrapolate how long it should have taken for the fire truck(s) to roll? I wonder just how many minutes it actually took for the first responders to arrive. I also wonder if the survivor listed in 6A had not moved back to sit with others. It seems fairly clear cut that those upfront died from the consequences of rapid deceleration and those in the back were able, in most cases, to walk away. |
Was the MD aircraft in question not equipped for a fully blind landing in zero visibility or does Phuket airport not have the necessary equipment installed? Surely in a similar situation at say Gatwick Airport there would be no problem with landing in near non existent visibility. |
Originally Posted by asia757
(Post 3556982)
Tell me.....how did he get so close to the runway with NO visual contact as reported by the surviving pax and the tower report that he was going missed?
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/videot/?id=1437166&ap=1 Whether it's below the minima or not, is up to the investigators, I guess. |
Phuket weather is always unstable. Having said that the UK is a lot worse. Thailand is an easy country to fly across with very predictable weather. We do not yet know the full details on this accident but as a private pilot I would have sat on the ground elsewhere or at the worst turned back. Such a sweeping generalisation about respective weather conditions is inaccurate. Rarely do we get the sort of storms in the UK which are commonplace in the Far East at certain times of the year. To then go on and declare what you would have done as a private pilot is as impossible to predict as it is irrelevant. Was the MD aircraft in question not equipped for a fully blind landing in zero visibility or does Phuket airport not have the necessary equipment installed? Surely in a similar situation at say Gatwick Airport there would be no problem with landing in near non existent visibility. Few airports in the world have ground equipment to the required standard, usually only the major ones in developed and wealthy countries. These threads bring out the very worst in people with so many posts made by people who want to take part in a willy waving contest when all they do is prove there ignorance, illogical thinking, immaturity or all three. If somebody has something worthwhile to say it becomes lost in the reams of garbage and false sincerity (RIP, condolences, etc. referring to unknown people never met and probably scarcely thought about therafter) expressed by people who could do PPRuNe and its readers a favour by reading instead of posting and waiting until the true causes of this accident become known. |
Ironic
Very sad indeed.
What is ironic is that the airport just went through disaster management drills. Page two of the Phuket Gazette September 15th - Phuket Airport disaster drill hailed a 'success'. I have no idea how emergency response was and sure they did a great job. Its just ironic how things are sometimes. |
The mouse has spoken; many a true word seeking knowledge with sentiment.
Time to revisit Managing the Threats and Errors during Approach and Landing. Also see Safety aspects of aircraft operations in crosswind. (2001) |
A few thoughts
Idle speculation I guess but based on information availible
Chief pilot + newbie = Possible CRM issue Aircraft came to rest directly opposite tower, who having been alerted to the go around would probably be watching, so maybe we should take seriously the eyewitness account of the "aircraft became unbalanced" and maybe interpret this as a stall while attempting a go around (hard bounce on runway giving to much nose up?). The accident site does not show too much evidence of forward motion or ground contact (skid) |
N912tw
Jacdec reports that this mishap a/c was one of the original batch of twenty delivered to TWA (company tab/nose # 9012 ?); delivered in '83, went over to AA, then to storage.
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Aircraft Age??
According to Boeing's response to the crash:
The airplane, serial number 49183, Variable 80C211, was delivered to a different operator in December 1983. At last report, it had accumulated approximately 64,679 hours and 34,202 cycles. Seems dear Mr Udom did not do the math correctly and cut the age of the aircraft in half in the media report. Also keep in mind there is the likely fact that nothing had been reported on times and cycles since this aircraft arrived in Thailand. As to the visual effect of the video taken after the crash and what may have been present on the approach. Anyone who has spent any time in a monsoon downpour can attest that minutes and even seconds can mean the difference between some visibility and none. Just more fuel for the fires of speculation!!! |
Some observations from the video and other pictures:
it does look like they landed on rwy 27, no doubt about it. You can see the smoke from the fire indicating a westerly wind of about 10 to 15 kts. The wx to the north seems to be fairly ok, but the view to the east ( the rwy 27 approach ) does seem to have quite reduced vis in heavy rain. It's still raining when the video was shot and the Finnish survivors are all dripping wet. It's been a while since I've flown in HKT, but it can be a tricky place in bad wx. I have several mates that have had a few heart stopping moments trying to land in HKT in 767's. Due to x/wind and rain. The rwy is not grooved and QF forbid landings in mod to heavy rain. My condolences to all, another sad day in Asian aviation for all. Seems it might be time to actually enforce some rules. |
time of response...
Looking at the video, I guess it must have taken the person who took the film at least 60 seconds to leave the plane, get to the edge of the runway and then start filming, yet at the end of the video clip (a further 56 seconds), there still appears to be absolutely no sign of rescue services.
Sadly - from experience - this doesn't surprise me. But as a resident in Thailand and someone who flies very frequently, I find this apparently tardy response rather alarming. |
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