I would not attach too much importance to this flight. It may or may not come to anything. Despite the marketing, it is based on demand and as likely as not the flight will operate via another UK hub such as MAN. Historically adverts for flights to access Carribbean cruise holidays from the North East, where they are not linked to sheduled flights via LHR or where ever, end up as block bookings on UK IT flights that are already operating.
DTVAirport says it all !

UKLad007-yes its good news about the fly-cruise flight and im sure it will be full of north east cruisers come Dec 08 but as others have said i guess given things change in this industry so quickly we should take this announcement with rather a large dose of salt.

On to more short term issues:

-bmi saga....if theyre going to do it i wish they'd hurry up as the airport need to get on to finding a potential new operator (most likely Eastern once they scrap BRU or outside bet VLM tho they recently scrapped LPL-LCY due to poor loads)

-GSM summer 08...again very safe routes that GSM and MME know will work and ones which im quite happy with if we want to sustain traffic and maintain a based lo-co operation. So what if they don't base a second aircraft again they've tried and will cut their cloth according to how well flights have been taken up by the local population. NCE and Pula were gambles anyway and Mahon and Ibiza are still more package destinations anyway.

-Advertising....still no evidence GSM et al have included 'from Durham Tees Valley' on their adverts which must have an impact and also who else has seen the EXTENSIVE Emirates advertising (internet, T.V as far down as Hull) for their new NCL service in order to establish themselves and ensure it is a success-sure they can afford it but its clearly working as sales are doing well- GSM and others take note...the evening gazette and number 45 bus to Redcar might not be enough!

How do you know that T3 are going to scrap Brussels, what info have you there or is it just a sweeping statement

Precisely! The BRU loads are good! They have good reason for operating it at reduced frequency of late, all the business men who use the route are on holiday, it's not just MME they're doing this, it's all over their route network.

Eastern could benefit from an earlier departure from MME in the morning though as it would hopefully mean an earlier arrival back at MME and thus be more attractive to people travelling into the MME area. The current flight back to MME in the morning is too late. It is almost worthwhile flying into NCL, hiring a car, catching a train or hiring a taxi into the MME area at the moment due to price and timings.

Not a sweeping statement but a reasoned conclusion of its performance so far-what proof do you have they are perfoming so well? If it's the CAA figures you're going by I would hardly call a load factor between 30 and 40% sustainable.

As we saw with BRS, Eastern will persist only for so long and once the EU funding they receive goes for this route I envisage its quick demise before Eastern look at other possible routes out of MME (most likely LCY).

Well the July 2007 passenger numbers are out...

Total for July 2007 was 88309 (-18.7% on July 2006)

Aberdeen 2767 (52%)
Alicante 8919 (77%) [shared GSM, JKK, TOM]
Amsterdam 10212 (70%)
Arrecife 1391 (97%)
Bodrum 1684 (96%)
*Bourgas 1904 (83%) [shared BGH, TOM]
Brussels 665 (31%)
Corfu 1046 (69%)
Dalaman 3519 (77%) [shared OHY, TOM]
Dublin 5194 (60%)
Gerona 4072 (83%)
Faro 2622 (67%)
Heathrow 6825 (62%)
Ibiza 3899 (70%) [shared GSM, JKK, TOM]
Jersey 939 (91%)
Larnaca 1436 (95%)
Mahon 2282 (81%) [shared GSM, TOM]
Malaga 5692 (77%) [shared GSM, TOM]
Nice 1001 (48%)
Palma 13163 (82%) [shared GSM, IWD, JKK, TOM]
Paphos 1471 (97%)
Pula 578 (56%)
Reus 2754 (90%) [shared BMA, TOM]
Tenerife 1488 (87%)
Warsaw 2316 (92%)

* - Bourgas is based on a full B738 (TOM) and half an A320 (BGH) as this is shared with LBA

Analysis
Well it looks like Warsaw has made a strong start with good loads in it's first month (started 13th July)
Cyprus performed strongly again with Larnaca and Paphos both doing well
As I said last month, the load factor for the Dalaman has dropped now that the Goldtrail flights have started (mid July), Bodrum still performed well though
Lanzarote also looks good and I think this could be a good choice by GSM for the winter!
Other choices by GSM don't look to have been too good, Nice looks as if it's failed already as they have started combining them flights with Alicante flights on the same afternoon this month, the load factor for July doesn't look too promising either!
Pula seems to be plodding along, I think if they allow this route time, it will grow, the load factor for July looks ok for a route that has never been offered before from the North East.
As for scheduled flights, well Brussels seems to have got worse this month, however Aberdeen has also dropped, this may be due to the lack of business passengers (Heathrow and Amsterdam have also dropped)

Well all things considered that isn't too bad, as you say, it's quite obvious that the business routes are down because the business people are on holiday. Can't believe the Warsaw load factor! if that keeps up it's only a matter of time before it's increased in frequency and even more routes added! As for JER, well you guessed 60% and I guessed 70% so it seems we were both wrong!

DTV Airport, I'm not so sure !, barring the new WAW, there is not a lot to be comfortable about. Irrespective of excuses valid or not, then traffic is in decline & I don't note a great deal of marketing effort to raise profile. Also Peel & 'Hughie' appear to be in hiding......
As for the comment re business flights down because of holidays. Surely what is being discussed is 'year on year' performance & I'm sure the business community still had their holidays in July 06 !:confused:

By the skin of its teeth the BMI MME-LHR might have a repreive (although its more than likely to be a change of when rather than if), there is a thread elsewhere on pprune with a link to an article today stating and quoting Sir MB as saying hes delaying the launch of transatlantic routes to the US till 2009, blaming operational probs at LHR and the fact that transit/transfer traffic is down as people avoid Heathrow and its problems (he must remember if he axes all these UK routes to LHR he is adding to that reduction!) hes also stated the integration of BMED and its trf from T4 to T1 comes first over transatlantic flights! :rolleyes:

July Stats
WAW 2316
Wizz started 13th July thats 8 departures = 2880(8x2x180) seats so 2319 pax's =80%l/f ????
Still not bad but not in the 90%'s....

MM4EVA

30-40% load factors on the margins Eastern have is not too bad if you think that break even on a 29 seat Jetstream is about 7 seats to ABZ.

And the Brussels fares are not cheap.

Now if you compare Ryanair and there load factors there break even I would guess would be about 75%

Well July's passenger figures are as ever a mixed bag.

Similiar to the football club, I think we MME lovers need to realise we will never be a NCL or even LBA...as long as MME fulfills its potential, still attracts a good mix of charter, loco, chartered and regional scheduled we can't complain as HUY and BLK would love to have what we have if you think of varied routes and operators.

UKLad007 thats hopeful re: the LHR route but sadly I wouldn't be surprised if by next week bmi announce theyre doing low cost operations to Outer Mongolia from Newquay given theyre track record recently!

:ok: goes to Wizzair and the WAW route havent sampled it myself but good on the good folk of Tees Valley for giving it a go!Let's hope demand doesn't falter when the temperature drops and we see other routes appearing!

With regards to GSM it states on their website more routes for summer 08 will come so perhaps we might see some more for MME-any suggestions that we know should/could work?

bmi will be using A330's on LHR-Middle East next year - if these are new flights then slots will need to come from somewhere. But even if A330's simply replace A320/A321's on Middle East routes then BA are still getting some slots from bmi soon - sorry to have to say it but these will need to come from somewhere and MME's slots could be a possibility

Mme So8
 

Just with regard to Summer 2008 and Thomsonfly at MME, the reason TOM are pulling out of alot of bases, as if a base has one aircraft it isnt profitable, and that aircraft will be better used elswhere to expand another base, for summer 2008 the 737-800 will be based at NCL.

MME and LPL were temporary bases for TOM, and alot if issues were involved with having temporary bases, and the union is heavily involved.

Any reason for the bmi cancellation ce soir?

I see GSM's punctuality problems are hitting MME with the NCE late by 3hrs..hope this is just a blip but I also see the TOM PMI flight is also running late-a mere coincidence or anything else?

Flew out of PMI Today And We where delayed 1 Hour Along with alot of other flight, the Captain Told Us It was Due to ATC Problems :}

Maybe There having the same problem

MME4eva: Not sure about the BMI cancellation, but my guess on the GSM NCE delay would be because the NCE flights have been combined with the ALC flights, therefore the delay would be due to the aircraft having done an MME-NCE-ALC-NCE-MME (I believe).

Luke: Chances are that any "ATC Problems" would have been at PMI's end or enroute, since there were no delays as a result of Air Traffic at DTVA. Perhaps it had a flow restriction (slot time), as it seems most crews associate this with "ATC delays". :*

The GSM this morning to AGP was delayed due to a tech aircraft so the other aircraft operated it after it's own rotation. However, GSM were quick off the ball and had a B733 position in from EDI followed closely by a B737 from GLA to do this afternoon's rotations at a minimal delay. Well done GSM!!!

-HD-

HeathrowDictator - according to Dave Anderson's live movements site, the aircraft that positioned in from EDI was another B736 not a B733, G-CDRA to be specific. The second replacement from GLA was as you said a 737 - G-MSJF.

DTVAirport - You are quite correct...the aircraft must have been changed as the flightplan was for a B733. The B736 went back to EDI yesterday and was replaced by a B733 an hour or so later to do the afternoon Alicante run...I can only assume they needed a bigger aircraft up north (or is the B733 bigger? I think it looks it, but can't be sure!!).