Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
 

Three things.

1. Open Skies Cometh
2. Heathrow Slots
3. Ryanair Atlantic and those persistent 777 rumours.

All the rest is padding. Or, as JM Brown of the FT wrote this morning...

Oh, and Sunfish, you might care to have a look here or if, as I suspect, you prefer you stories in pictures, then here before embarrassing yourself further with your hokey, irrelevant south seas prognostications. Two point two nine Billion €uros cash in the bank is enough to be going on with, wouldn’t you say?

Maybe the government will simply buy more shares?

I don't really think that's a runner; it would be an admission of defeat, but more to the point, not good for Aer Lingus at all.

There is another reason for thinking it's not a good thing. Here's a statement made by the minister for transport this evening. Now, I really don't like to criticise people, but, well, just have a read through the link and see what you think. I've picked out a few salient points to focus on ...

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/10/06/story279934.html

1. Government's and Ireland's strategic objectives not well served.
(What strategic objectives? Are these strategic objectives served by letting the DAA have a free hand at Dublin Airport, by having no investment in cargo handling, by turning their face against competition at the airport, by maintaining an outdated and counter-productive bilateral with Canada, by not having any meaningful co-ordination between govt departments - where do I stop ....)

2. Government kept 28% precisely to block such a hostile takeover bid and the delisting of EI from the S.E.
(Er ... how exactly does 28% shareholding, without a golden share, actually achieve this?)

3. It's a defensive move by Ryanair to protect itself from a stronger, well resourced Aer Lingus.
(Yeah right, because tiny, delicate Ryanair with the lowest costs in the industry and a whacking great fleet of 737s is really going to need protection from EI.)

Did you ever read such BS in all your life? To whom is this drivel intended. Would it have crossed his mind that when investors and analysts read something like this, their most immediate thought may be "if anyone needs protection, it's Aer Lingus, from this guy. What planet is he on?".

Sometimes you're not sure whether to laugh or cry.

What are you trying to do ? .... :confused:

Give Bertie a heart Attack ..... :bored:

Couldnt agree more.. DoT PIC needs some basic training.

DM spoke on RTEs news programme tonight with the following mantra....

"They[investors] like the Aer Lingus value proposition, we are different to other LCC's, we offer a better product and there is a premium associated with that[service] and thats the key to growing Aer Lingus going forward"

Thats all very well, but what line did EI spin to its investors a few months back? They must be planning something monumental in terms of expansion if the indications from the institutions are that they want to hold on for a bigger payoff. Institutional investors are a fickle lot, if they hang on it firmly indicates that A/C orders are in the bag already and plans drawn up for their deployment.

DMs speech today is a totally diferent use of language to previously, EI is focusing on service again, and its quite clear that they are prepared to do their own thing in terms of service concepts...

In a way FR has just made it easier for EI to expand, now that it has better stock market capitalisation EI is more likely to be able to find cash for A/C, etc on better terms.....

Interesting times ahead methinks. Im inclined to think that it is a win-win situaion for both EI and MOL/FR.

As stated by Mr Cullen you can not take EI private if the company is 28% state owned and they don’t want to sell. That is the story full stop. You can make it very difficult for a company to operate though!:\

There isn't any way FR can take it private if the government dig in, never mind the employees and other investors.

"The Minister claimed it's a defensive move by Ryanair to guard against the threat of a stronger well-resourced Aer Lingus and Ryanair is trying to recreate an aviation monopoly."

I think this is partially right and is economic and a bit of an ego mission mixed together. There are more important issues on the agenda. EI are pushing FR finally in a different manner of ways to previously but not as much as EI would want or could achieve…..

The potential of LHR slots is not the main consideration in the short or medium term either, it is a factor though. I know there are investment analysts looking at this thread especially when this particular issue comes up. These slots have been safe guarded for quite a while as previous posters have stated in their evidence and links! This is not one of the primary reasons in this takeover.

The ego thing is something that is a consequence of a business deal like this and you can be sure there is a certain amount of satisfaction going on about this. I don't think this is the main reason either.

People are underestimating the value of Dublin slots in all this! This is the "Tiger economy" of Europe at the moment. There has been quite a bit of heavy discussion that went on about this with a few court rulings over the past few months which I thing people have missed in all of this.

Long haul is something FR wants to get involved in and out of DUB and the purchase of EI will enable this in many ways, ETOP'S approval under a seperate AOC etc. The special links between the US and EI have been around for years and if open skies came to fruition FR would want a bite of that cake which might be easier than many other European countries to negotiate.

Linking all the major UK(name a city FR don't serve in the UK), Irish and other European cities up to DUB to serve transatlantic services is and I think would have already been an objective. No Interline agreement though. Just a % off a DUB-JFK if you have used FR inbound and outbound from DUB, maybe? Who knows... but you can sell anything at the right price.

The LHR slots have a multi purpose in either being for sale or use by a long haul FR.

Qualified man power is another factor, unions or not unfortunately. KLM UK can vouch for this! A few hundred qualified pilots is always something FR would be looking to get hold of. They think that the unions can be strangled to accept any deal FR will offer in the end of a prolonged strategy to shut down EI.

BA and Virgin and the other major US carriers as a whole should be and I think will be worried at the current course of events.

This company has to spend the money they have though. A dividend was about due. 2 BN Euro and no dividend and people would have to be asking questions on what and are the reasons as to no dividend as the company maintained unprecedented growth. Instead of "wasting cash" on paying back shareholders on their financial backing (Boeing, banks and lease backs cash included), the money is to be spent on basically further expansion. I am and would be asking major questions to why FR are not paying dividends when they are a huge PLC with huge profit margins and plenty in the bank. Why are the CEO and board keeping your money? This is after all your money FR is using to buy EI! :ok:

I think he will enjoy spending it. You always do if it isn't yours! Not so much to lose...;)

Ah, I wondered how long it would be before someone quoted the Ultimate Irish Fantasy. I have now lived in Ireland for nearly 2 years (refugee from UK ratrace - I came here for the peace and not for career), and the 'Tiger Economy' is utter nonsense. Infrastructure here is appalling, with some of the lowest standards of healthcare, education and transport in Europe, and the country's present economic situation is based almost entirely on a massively-overheating housing market and a rate of corporation tax which is half of most major EU countries' rates. And most worrying, there is no plan for the future when a)the housing market collapses, and b)all the foreign companies disappear off to more lucrative climes in Eastern Europe.

If the Dublin slots are so valuable, how come Alitalia have just pulled out?? And if RYR/EIN goes ahead, you can bet a number of others will pack their bags too.

The Mannion interview on RTE1 News was indescribably bad - yet another corporate clone droning the same old biz-speak - if he's in charge Aer Lingus have no chance.

I am now wondering if MOL is not doing this to expand his business but rather his usual mischief-making: he's got a massive amount of free publicity, people admire his 'chutzpah', and if it doesn't succeed, he makes a monster profit on the EIN shares for doing nothing.

In a statement to the sharemarket the Irish Govt. says it holds 25.1% of the EI shares, which will block a complete takeover by any single party, as they need 75% for control.

Blue Foot

I didn't see DM's interview, but I don't think Alitalia is a particularly good example to use; they pulled out because both FR and EI, both airlines with cost bases considerably lower than AZ's, compete on both routes. AZ is a complete basket case and its latest business plan has failed.

Today's article in the Indo (Irish) was rather unhelpful - pure speculation about the possibility of 1,000 job cuts at Aer Lingus; it doesn't seem to be based on anything more that speculation that MO'L would follow WW's plan for the airline.

Reverting to the idea of FR continuing as a significant minority shareholder in Aer Lingus, surely this also works as a means to test FR's and MO'L's bona fides, in that the positives mentioned in MO'L's initial statements about the takeover of EI are surely achievable without full ownership; both airlines stand to gain. If, however, he feels that he needs majority ownership, might it indicate that what he has in store for EI is not necessarily in EI's interests as a long term business. In other words, minority ownership is the ideal way for MO'L to establish trust and bona fides; if it fails, then MO'L's fault entirely.

And do you think for one minute, that the corrupt and spineless twits in govt in this little green country will not announce some morning, "that someone has left them short .02% of shares, they cant remember who "and amazingly MOL has 75.1%. Yawn.

oldlag53 your assertion that the "'Tiger Economy' is utter nonsense" based on living in Ireland for 2 years is about the most ignorant thing I have read on pprune for some time. Well done.

Had you lived in Ireland pre-boom days you would realise how completely stupid that remark is. The Republic's economy has gone from being technically rated part of the 2nd world (eg. Romania, India, etc) to first world in the last 15 years. I'm not going to bang on about the way things used to be, ask your Irish neighbours if you care to find out, but they were substantially worse in every way. Maybe you should find out a little about the history of the country you live in.

O Leary will:

a) Get 51% of Lingus

b) Flog off long haul and the Heathrow slots

c) Run short haul as a seperate company to Ryanair

d) Make it lose money deliberately and in a few years time wind up the business


Thus achieving the elimination of its prime competitor in his home market, placing the IAA even deeper in his pocket, upgrading his strangle hold on Dublin Airport to a garrot hold, settling Tony Ryans old scores with Lingus AND generating himself acres of newsprint whilst spending the warchest instead of having to hand it back the unwashed ordinary shareholder via dividend.

Any sentimentality for good old Shamrock will be used as toilet paper. The very small airline as it stand with a foot in low cost a foot in long haul and foot in full service has no future now it is out of government hands.

Sad fact.

AP

The point where all this came from was lucrative slots at Dublin. It's a nice thought but I don't see it myself. In a weeks time, when MOLs intentions are clearer, we'll look back at this thread and see how far off the mark many of the speculations were. Lucrative slots at Dublin won't be an embarassing one but I doubt it'll be part of MOLs thinking.

Rumour in the city is that EK is interested in buying Lufthansa!

Hell will freeze over before MOL ever get his hands on EI. The government will not dispose of their 25% and staff will never dispose of their 16% - not to RYR anyway. Even they know that it would be suicide. While he may very well mop up 51% of shares on the open market, it wont be enough to force the remaining share’s to be handed over. At best he may have a mild influence on how the company is run but it will not be enough for out right control and we all know that Oleary cant/wont dance to other peoples tunes.

RYR have cracked the model on how to run a Low Class Shorthaul Airline but that model will not be tolerated for long haul. It cant work. You can treat me like ****e for an hour, maybe two but definitely not for 5 to 7 hours.

Everyone knows that the slot protection that the government built in to the EI sale simply will not stand up to any court if a majority share holder tries to asset strip EI. That’s the only reason they kept a 25% stake cause that is the only way they can protect it.

No chance Mick - no chance

New Ryanair rounte from BGY?
 

From March 2007 new 3rd daily BGY-GRO will be operated by a GRO based plane so there is free space for a new daily route with a BGY based plane! :ok:

Any idea/rumors of this new route?

Maybe BGY TO Bremen,Bournemouth or Porto?

An Autumn Uprising.
 

What an odd world you live in, Pos-Init.
I don’t know where you learned about corporate governance, Pos-Init, but in the real world, I think you’ll find that a single share more than 50% is a controlling interest. In other words, Ryanair will run the company. The Irish governments position; or rather, the present Irish government’s position, in retaining 25% +1 share is to ensure that the company isn’t de-listed from the Irish exchange. Opinions will vary, no doubt, but some may see this as a rather cynical attempt to curry favour with certain crucial North Dublin electorates, popular among voters currently employed by Aer Lingus. Oh, and there’s an election next year…did I mention that?
Wrong again, I'm afraid. The two fundamental drivers of human behaviour, Pos-Init, are fear and greed. If you successfully manipulate these two levers, you can teach a jackass to play canasta. Speaking of which, how enlightening to observe to braying to emerge from the lunatic left wing leader of SIPTU in recent days, the same leader of the same staff who previously swore black and blue they’d never acquiesce to a privatised Aer Lingus…until, of course, the unedifying spectacle of Dermot Mannion industrially fellating Mick Halfpenny to the tune of millions and a seat on the Aer Lingus board. Kind of leaves a bad taste in your mouth, doesn’t it.
Quite so, but SIPTU and the curiously silent (or should that be silenced) IALPA would do well to recall Aristotle when he reminded us that one swallow does not a summer make.

Maybe FUE,TFN or MLA :oh: .

FR has formally denied this morning's story in the Indo

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/arti...US-RYANAIR.XML

Not really surprising; it was complete guesswork and scaremongering; really didn't add a lot to the whole debate.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the govt and EI are scrambling around this weekend to find an alternative bidder for EI shares - say around 10-15%, sufficient to hold FR at bay. I would imagine that there is a lot of telephone negotiation going on, relating to EI slots at LHR ... and I can't help wondering if WW is involved?

Personally, the idea of FR being a long term shareholder in EI doesn't upset me that much; indeed, it could be a good thing on a number of levels:
- It's unlikely to destroy an airline in which it has a financial interest;
- Will it "allow" EI to benefit from FR's purchasing ability with Boeing, when it comes to ordering 787s?
- If FR/MO'L are serious about what they suggested in their "project bargepole" intro last week, much of this can be done without being a majority shareholder;
- It is arguably a test of good faith on MO'L's part; if he is serious about these promises, let him put them into effect as a minority shareholder; if what he is suggesting is good for EI, then the airline can work with him; if, on the other hand, he chooses to go for a majority shareholding, then that will be used as evidence that what he is suggesting is not good for EI; surely MO'L knows the importance of trust and building it. We will need to see some evidence of MO'L's bona fides towards the airline and its employees and as I said, allowing EI to benefit from FR's purchasing power with Boeing might be a very good start in that ... Even if FR is just a minority shareholder, it can only stand to gain.

All of that may sound naive in a cut-throat business world, but MO'L will see the importance of trust and confidence in a venture like this. Perhaps we'll see ...

What a day this is for me – my parents will be so proud of me. A post of mine has actually solicited a repost from Leo the Hairy (arsed) Camel. I’ve arrived.

I had my doubts for a long time about you LH(a)C but I think your last post has given the game away – you really are a pilot aren’t you cause you haven’t a clue about business. 51% dosent give you control – it gives you a major head ache.

Despite it being the worst thing that could possibly happen to EI, to have a malignant narcissist megalomaniac bully having anything to do with our respected flag carrier, the real genius is Bertie. He new he couldn’t protect EI from the asset strippers, the economic burglars at RYR so he kept a 26% share.

Quote:

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Wrong again, I'm afraid. The two fundamental drivers of human behaviour, Pos-Init, are fear and greed. If you successfully manipulate these two levers, you can teach a jackass to play canasta

---

.


Don’t judge others by your lower than a snakes belly standards. I am bursting with joy at the thought that you are going to have to work with all those that you tried, but failed to wipe out. You are going to have to grovel to the very likes of Bertie and IALPA – Nelson puts it very well – HA HA (Simpsons)

whats the bets chaps? 3.50 euro by wednesday?

next week will tell a lot.....cant wait.

So you've flown EI across the pond then?

What a disgraceful post by pos-init.

No one is going to buy a stake in ANY company and then do as some suggested, "run it at a loss" or "drive it into the ground" it doesnt make sound business sense, and do remember that MOL MUST act in the interests of FR shareholders. He is savy enough to see a valid business opertunity. EIs own success has brought its current 'crisis' upon it.

Of course, more than a respected brand MOL instantly wipes out competition for his airline at DUB, ORK & SNN. 100% market share on ORK/SNN-LON, in excess of 70% on DUB-LON. 100% in many euro markets. This offer makes sense for FR, as it is realistically as big as its going to get. One airlines get a bit bigger than 100-150 airframes, organisation can get out of hand,FRs model is based around simplicity, so seperate units makes sense. Perhaps FR may aquire other airlines as well, who knows.

I suspect that the Buzz experience thought FR a lot about aquisitions and mergers, and thats what it was about, more than routes and passengers.

daz211

If Ryanair start a route from BGY to Canary Island I will be the first to book a lot of tickets...;)

Fifth Floor dwellers
 

Will all this mean I have to work more than a half day on Mondays and Tuesdays?

Leo Hairy Camel,

You're an expert on corporate governance now..?

The Irish Finance Minister released a statement to the stockmarket saying FR wil not aquire control of EI as they need 75% of all shares, which will not happen.

Blue Foot

Jasus lads you don’t get very long to sit on your laurels here do you. There I was on the phone to me muder and fader telling them how LH(a)C had responded personally to a post I made. They were, as I expected, over the moon.

Then I see

Quote:

---

What a disgraceful post by pos-init.

---

What a muppet. Have no idea what you read into my post mate, but that’s your problem. I never once said that RYR were going to run EI into the ground. By the was, and just for the record, EI is not just any company. It was built by the Irish people and we are very proud of it. Few if any of us who know RYR can say the same. I'm personnally ashamed of it.

OK – I accept, reluctantly, that EI had to be floated to take it to the next phase but the thought that a scum bag would reap any reward from the efforts of countless people over the years is nauseating - and I don’t believe that it will happen. Yes there are people who will sell their soul for profit but I believe the 42% wont and thats exactly the magic figure Bertie built in to protect it.

Leo so very Michael O'Leary .....

Leo thinks cash in the bank is the measure of financial security for Ryanair. I was always taught it was total Liabilities minus total assets that indicates net worth.

or .......

:)

brian_dromeyWith MoL, it is about the money first but a very close second is being th ebiggest. He often says that he will show the Brits 'What a bunch of Paddy's can do'. If this allows him to grow RYR faster, so that he can be bigger than BA - then he will. That is the motivation.

I wonder how the pilots from Aer Lingus will take it when they have to fill their own water bottles up in the crew room , print their own flight plans and weather off, pay for uniforms , pay own accommodation when in the Sim every six months, half sector pay for six months, 25 minute turnarounds, bring own lunch to work + tea bags and coffee, standing in the rain with your headset on while your A/C is being fuelled

Welcome to the real world, and WELCOME TO RYANAIR :)

Ryanair to purchase First Choice Airways
 

News just in from a very reliable and trustworthy source;

"It will be announced within the next fortnight that Ryanair will be making a cash offer to the First Choice Group for the airline section of the company - formally Air 2000."

What do we think off that then!

Ryanair obvioulsy fancies a part of the bucket and spade bregade!!! Im sure the First Choice pilots will think its a good move! With the FR 787 and 777 order just over the horizon - great for the old flying shell suits!

:}

But today is not April 1st.:)

Just back from a long Sunday lunch in the pub are you?

Or still out from the night before???

Next thing you'll know is O'Leary announcing he just became chairman of BA!:}

"A very reliable in trustworthy source" A Firm favourite with the first time poster.