Short haul will become all FR, keep the Aer Lingus brand for a big push on long haul! Be affraid!

-8AS, I think you're spot-on.

Yer man MOL may be a g*t, but when it comes to 'wheelin an dealin' he is a genius!!! No other airline would touch EIN with a bargepole, but RYR get the Irish market locked up, they get a nice integrated fleet of A320s and A330s (get a good battle going with Boeing and Airbus re future orders), AND possibly the biggest prize, they could have a go at a low-cost model into the USA.

Cross-subsidise the longhauls from the RYR revenue, pack all the punters on by flying them from all those lovely existing UK routes into DUB and then onward, and away you go! And not forgetting the LHR slots either - must be worth tens of millions alone.

And if EIN pilots, crew etc, threaten to leave - well, that's what he wants anyway. Easily replaced - and there must be RYR crew who would give their eye-teeth to 'trade up' to longhaul A330 ops.

I like to think I follow the airline biz, and I am seriously hacked off that I didn't see this coming. The question is, how come no-one else did either??!!

Bloody hell, did anyone see this coming? I'm really quite stunned by this predatory move from MOL!

Bit of a stunt methinks, at least I think that's how it's pronounced......:)

.... and it would remove any threat to transfer oversight/regulation to the CAA :}

So, between them, the govt and emoloyees hold about 43% (?) and assuming the employees will want to hold onto their shares - by no means guaranteed, the objective will be to find another buyer for about 10-15% of shares, to bring the combined s/h above 50%.

But, what airline - even EK - would do this? The problem is that MO'L holds most of the cards here, even if the govt does find a way of keeping him out. What's to say he won't basically act in a fit of pique, base another 10+ 738s at DUB, set up a long haul airline and basically grind EI down until the govt agrees to a deal; he will be pretty ruthless here.

Yes, I agree completely.

However, surely we can draw a distinction between business prudence and outright lying.

Or does the modern low cost ethos leave no room for moral principles?

Just reading BBC news and it states that Irish Govt which retains 25% stake is unwilling to sell at all, Aer Lingus mgmt is considering the sale and Ryanair have alledgedly issued a statement saying it has no problem with the Irish Govt remaining as minority stakeholder. If you scratch beneath the surface Ryanair have been very clever. They guessed that the Govt was unwilling to sell to them as it wants to promote aviation competition in Ireland so its waited until the Irish govt has floated a majority stake and then snapped up shares at the cheap IPO price and in the days after to build up a credible stake and then if it wins its takeover regardless of if the Irish govt retains 25% it will still be the majority shareholder and can control the airline (although am sure it would prefer full ownership).

As i said in previous post, an odd move given Ryanair's set up and all the wrangling thats gone on in the past between the two but i can actually see the benefits on thinking about it
1) Profitable Long Haul Routes
2) Ability to cut Irish/UK routes where both would operate to avoid overlap but at same time launch new routes using the Aer lingus aircraft which wouldnt be used on these routes anymore
3) A greater chunk of slots and presence at Irish Airports, esp Dub
4) A foothold into LHR - it could even sell some slots here for lucrative cash but its not as though Ryanair needs it

However as stated two things which could put a dampner are as stated competition authorities and a potential shareholder which doesnt seem to approve the offer.

I wonder if a Ryanair owned Aer Lingus would work well with BA ( a company it often slates) on the codeshare routes between UK and Ireland?

Not even to mention the fact that even without getting long haul a/c, you are probably able to reach places like Boston with the 738, just probaly some days struggling to make the westbound sector but really something achieveable.
So putting even more pressure on the EI stakeholders to sell (including the govt).

He kept this one quiet didint he, no one had a clue even us ppruners when I first saw this I had to look at the date again to make sure it wasent the 1st of April

There again, if he does actually get Aer Lingus he could keep the shorthaul, which is his proven forte, then sell the longhaul, such as it is, to Virgin.
I don't see Emirates getting much of a look in, maybe a shareholding but not control.

Heard from a friend who works in FR that they are asking for people to move to madrid for a new base opening 1st November havent seen anything on the Ryanair website yet

Well the employees will get EUR60,000 each if this happens so there'll
be sod all the Unions can do about it now!!!

Funny how union members beliefs and previous stances will all be
forgotten as they drive to work in the new BMW 5 Series!!

Aer Lingus goes Boeing?
 

On the Ryanair website Ryanair has written out their intentions for Aer Lingus. One of them is:

- Give Aer Lingus access to the benefit of Ryanair's lower costs aircraft deliveries and lower cost financing facilities.

I suppose this is a direct connection to Boeing and I wonder what would happen then to the shorthaul Airbus fleet... :ooh: :ooh:

Quite wrong 1world 22. MOL has never made good on any of his promises, and this will be no different. Master of the sound bite, his figures never bear close scrutiny. Ei staff who could have sold their jobs for considerably more over the last few years have shown a level of comitement to the company and their shared future that you clearly dont compehend.

Aer Lingus won't exist at all if Ryanair get control. There will only be one company called Ryanair, with one type , the 737-800 and the routes thet inherit and the massive cash flow plus from the sale of the Heathrow slots. (Ryanair would NEVER fly from Heathrow and the slots are woth a mint)
Aer Lingus would cease to be in exactly the same manner as.....oh what were they called, oh yes, Buzz!

If the Irish want a national airline to be proud of, don't flog it to Ducksy. But then money talks louder than principle.

There is no benefit to Ryanair in operating 2 types of aircraft with 2 types of workforce on short and long haul.

The choices are to keep the 2 entirely separate or to eliminate Aer Lingus.

Is there any benefit to Ryanair in retaining the Aer Lingus brand which competes against it on it's own doorstep?

Solution?

Sell the LHR short haul slots; bmi, Virgin and the US carriers will fight it out for them.

Stop the transatlantic routes and return the 330s; return the short haul Airbus fleet and replace it with 737s.

If the pilots and cabin crews won't accept Ryanair T & C's close the whole lot down.

Result? All the Dublin slots passed to FR for expansion, no competition, IALPA left with no boll*cks and the IAA at gunpoint.

A rather cunning stunt, one might say...

IMHO a bit of a publicity stunt but RYA has a big cash balance and needs to either spend it or return it to shareholders - so they have to do something.

Let's assume it goes ahead...

Holding company created, owning both airlines. They'd be kept separate for industrial reasons. However RYA takes up most of EIN's routes it doesn't already operate, chucking the 320s in place of 738s (allowing maint & ops to be centralised on one type).

Beeb reports they only compete on a small number of routes so there'll be some cash-generation there.

Long-haul - it kind-of had to happen that longer routes would one day come into the lo-cos' radars as aircraft range performance increased. Really, what's the difference between operating 5 hr sectors to the far end of the Med, and tacking on a couple of hours to that and hopping the pond or to the sandpit? I suggest the cost problems start to escalate when you start throwing in two-sector trips.

So whilst it is a slight deviation from the one-type rule, having a small number of another type (when you've got over 200 of one type) probably isn't that big a deal; especially if you actually flog 'em to a lessor (so they're off the balance sheet) and effectively have them in your fleet on a fixed-cost ACMI basis. That is, the entire infrastructure is being run by someone else (at their risk) and you're just buying the capacity under a very tight SLA.

As for the unions... I suggest you lot take a look at the D&G RP forum from time to time and see what's being done with "the Qantas group". Those who have suggested that S/H routes would gradually go to the lo-co need only look at Jetstar.

Actually Jetstar are about to start L/H lo-co ops with A330s, two-class, pay for blankets, pillows, IFE and meals on single-hop trips. Same name but separate entity and AOC from the domestic JQ ops. Taking the Jetstar L/H idea back to Ireland, being able to operate long routes on a lower cost basis might well actually open up more routes - so more flying. But - on a 'lower cost' basis...

You can betcha that MOL is watching his compatriot in Australia (Alan Joyce, running Jetstar) like a hawk.

Ryanair @ Madrid
 

Wow!Easyjet must be gutted! I bet they thought they'd have Madrid all to themselves bar the Ryanair DUB route!;)

Time zone differences for one I would think.

Fly into JFK leaving midday any you arrive at 14:00 local or thereabouts.

Flight then leaves at 18:00 at the earliest, that's a 4 hour turnaround.
Arrives at 05:00-06:00 local back in Ireland say and then has maybe 6 hours before it leaves again??

Not terribly attractive in the land of quick turnarounds...So that's about 11 hours flying in 24 hours? What would be the daily utilisation of FR aircraft currently?

90- or 120-min turnaround and if you're the only operator on theroute, punters will have to make do with the times.

Lots of RYA routes are only one or two a day at godforsaken times... but they still manage to get enough bums on seats to turn a profit.

This link shows the procedures required to dispose of the LHR slots.
http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDe...asp?ID=1309588
It seems to make the disposal "difficult" and therefore presumably the value , in Asset terms, lower than it would be should they be available to sell

Hi all
How is MoL supposed to deal with pilots? They hold all the chips in EI;strongest union, IALPA( SIPTU are only blowhards,they always give in, in the end, to the Company.IALPA know their strength and almost always win their fights); greatest shareholding of EI shares as well as having the best terms and conditions of all the workforce, (bar top management). The staff might shout and puff but in the end, they'll either be lured by a money offer for their ESOT shares or simply be let go on reduced redundo terms.Of the engineers and pilots, only those with 737 Types are of immediate value for short-haul.
The Government wants to keep it's 25% share.Let them. Mol only needs 51%, which is within reach.Once he gets that, he might simply turn around and offload it to Emirates, which, I suspect, is what Mannion wants anyway....After that, we're ******.
regards from the toolshed
TDD

Seeing that Ryanair has never paid a dividend I think your choice would be a bad one. I feel very sad for the Irish that their state airline could end up in the hands of someone like MOL who would cheapen the brand if he kept the brand at all.

Rumours this afternoon say a certain Middle Eastern company is trading heavily for EI shares.

TwoDeadDogs.

You need more than 51% under company law I think? Just because you get to that amount doesn't mean you can do what you want. Flying Lawyer probably knows a bit about it?

I can't remember the % but it is a heck of an amount higher than that. I think the MAN UTD Glazer's thing was closer to the nineties mark before total control was gained? I'm just guessing though to be honest.:confused:

alibaba,

I think you have something there. Company articles are not necessarily like a straightforward democracy. 50.1% does not guarantee outright control in some circumstances. Interesting to see what the situation with Aer Lingus is.

Also I think the goverment put something in the sale that ring-fenced the slots so they could not be sold off by potential asset strippers.

Can anyone shed any more light on the stock trading this afternoon, hearing conflicting rumours about who is buying what?

The Board of Aer Lingus has just rejected the bid.

Dr Dave

Game on !!
 

Yes ,

But now its Game On !!

The whole world of Mergers and Acquisitions is now in play.

75 % will never be achievable so there goes that Special Resolution angle.

51 % plus should be possible.

Will there be a White Knight ?

Watch this Space !!


Eolas

Here's an idea............

Buy 200 million euro worth of shares.

Make announcment that you are attempting to buy out Aer Lingus.

Sit back and watch share price go through the roof.

Sell shares tomorrow morning and make a handsome 50 million overnight!

Air Lingus Rejects Bid!
 

As someone else said, I should have seen this coming. It's a remarkable stunt. It's a win win situation for MOL. If he succeeds he gets control of the flag carrier and one of the most famous logos in the business. Could we see the FR fleet repainted in a pretty shade of green? Never forget the status Aer Lingus still holds in Ireland. Comments from moronic politicians and unions stating that a Ryanair takeover would be bad for the country prove that. That's a throwback to the days when airlines were virtually an arm of the state. FR kicked that notion into touch some time ago.

Motivations: Embarrass the government: Get hands on LHR slots and sell them to highest bidder. FR would never fly into LHR: Acquire long haul, plenty of potential profit in long haul and frankly a Napoleonic ambition to control Europe with it's fleet of blue coated soldiers. I think 'Michaelomania' is the appropriate term here.

And make money.

If the bid fails, FR can sell it's shares and destroy the price and still make a profit.

You have to laugh really. What a diabolical plot:D I remember when the the sell off was been discussed. The unions and others were worried about a foreign takeover of EI. But they were all ignoring the elephant in the room, literally. The Ryanair juggernaut continues.

I'm not sure of the exact figure, but under british company law you need about 90% of the shares for your takeover to become unconditional, i.e. you can acquire the outstanding shares at the offer price, whether the remaining shareholders like it or not.
51% of the shares gives you 51% of the shareholders votes at AGM's, EGM's etc. It doesn't necessarily give you control over the company - life's not that simple.
If only....
That many shares coming onto the market at once would cause the price to fall sharply, wiping out a lot of the previous gains. Even if they were sold piecemeal, once the markets realised there was an 'overhang' of shares, the share price would be depressed. In fact the effect would probably be compounded, once the penny dropped that there wasn't a takeover after all.

Where did you hear that? It would make perfect sense - what MoL was saying on the conference call about applying his low-cost carrier model onto Aer Lingus and leave everything as is (including LHR slots) is, quite frankly, bullsh*t!

Here's the math part:
Aer Lingus has roughly €1 billion of cash
The value of their slots at LHR would probably fetch at least €500m in an open auction to the highest bidder.
That works out to about €2.90/share, over €0.10 more than MoL is offering and then of course there's the value to the rest of the business...

Clever move. Cue up the bidding war! Time to fasten those seatbelts, could be a few bumps ahead! :\

Ryanair announces 10 new routes from Nottingham East Midlands
 

Ryanair announces news routes of EMA to:
Alghero (Sardinia), Bartislava, Knock, Milan, Valencia, Granada, Inverness, Krakow. Pisa and Santiago

Also based three new Boeing 737 800

...tie up with Aer Lingus would open the door for the Longhaul, though. Keep the slots, get these 777s and crash the Longhaul market!!

Aer Lingus rejects Ryanair offer
 

** Aer Lingus rejects Ryanair offer **
Irish airline Aer Lingus rejects a 1.48bn euro (£1bn; $1.9bn) takeover offer from budget rival Ryanair.
< http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/1/hi/business/5408780.stm >

BR.

Ooops! Same as previous posted earlier...

I was listening to the Joooooooooooe Duffy show here in UK via 252LW.

Very entertaining listening. Especially the pilot who was named as "joe" who works for FR that said he wasnt affraid of O'Leary... Fair play to this pilot, i was very impressed, came across well dude. :D

Needless to say my views on the matter are that O'Leary is just causing a media uproar. Dont think he will go trough with the full deal....:ugh:

This is just a PR stunt and regardless of whether the Irish Government allow him to buy the majority stake or not, i dont think it will actually happen.

Either way, my dreams of one day flying for Shamrock will be shattered if it does happen. Would not like to be stuck working for him, although when it comes to a career in aviation i know beggers cant be choosers!

Clever boy!
 

This is one of MOL's masterstrokes. Cant any body see it? Now he will be in a position to push AF/KLM, BA, LH, from both sides.

"Low fares, around Europe, for you and your family sir?" get ready to push...the 738 is about to land.

"High fares, good service, sir?" The green planes are right this way.


I personally think that EI and FR would be kept completely seperate, as unions at FR would spell trouble.The two companies are quite complementary, and most of the competition is on the newer FR routes.

With the right product mix EI could make a ton of money on long-haul routes, and I think the key to utilisation is to have long-haul routes to the east and west. FR can afford to bankroll this, lets face it EI cannot.
Long haul is going to go LO-CO, im sure of it, but would many airlines bother to compete if they knew their compeditor had such deep pockets, and compeditive ethos?
MOL sees an oppertunity to launch a long haul network carrier which will also have a small(ish), but profitable euro and UK route network.

Perhaps the signs in DUB for the A350 were somewhat permature!:}