LBA-JER is also served as part of the Flybe shuttle route, so it technically has a 3 Daily year round service, albeit with a short stop in SOU each way.

ATR? I thought the jet was being under used in the current scheduling?

Leeds ac
 

Go to gov.gg and search for -Leeds - a link to a PDF comes up, click on it and you'll see the application made by Malcolm Couper....only ATR 42 and 72 mentioned. The application says they hope to start in April. Doubt there would be time in the Jets daily scedule to fit in a trip to Leeds but plenty of time for the LCY ac.

Pete

Doubt that they'd get anywhere near the pax necessary to run the jet profitably. Even just once per week !

How long does it normally take to get a route licence granted?
As I noticed in the PDF that Aurigny don't expect to commence the proposed year round 3x-7x weekly ATR42 operated Guernsey - Leeds/Bradford route until April 2016.

Time to market the route especially for the leisure passenger.... LBIA.

If this route goes year round, 3-7 times a week & doesn't make a huge loss, I'll eat my proverbial hat !

Leeds route potential traffic
 

I guess Aurigny will have to match Jet2/FlyBE fares, but traffic figures for Jan 2015 suggest the route should make money. Provisional figures on a few of the routes to the islands show:
To/from Jersey and -
Leeds 4656
EMA 1708
Manchester 2776
Bristol 1986
Gatwick. 38109

To/from GCI
EMA 1023
Manchester. 3114
Bristol. 922
Gatwick 19528

I believe the route could be OK

Klmuk used to operate this route on Sat and Sun May-Sep and the loads were good

cobopete & dcp2608

That's my point. JB-NM has only ever operated at a frequency of 2 flights per week max., & in Summer ONLY. &, that with a/c smaller than AT72s. I go back 50 years +, to when BKS were operating a Summer service with a once weekly DC3.
I don't deny that AUR can fill a 42 (or even a 72) at times; but I don't think that they can do it consistently. & I'm certain that they can't do it even 3 days a week in Summer (let alone 7 days a week). As far as Winter is concerned; I would be very doubtful of the service operating more than once or twice a week, if at all.
I wish the airline (& Guernsey the best - being a Guernseyman, myself), & I hope that the route is a success. But, even if it is, prepare yourselves for a frequency drop in time, especially in the Winter & early & late Summer. That's if it does start operating at more than twice a week.

@kcockayne


I'm not sure you can read too much into operations of the past, but as you will also know Leeds did have consistent Summer services to Guernsey for many years when plenty of other UK airports didn't. It does seem strange that there have been a number of years without an operator on the route. However, I take your point and a more modest service would seem a good thing to try to begin with.


LBA are particularly keen to bring in non-based operators to add to passenger numbers during quieter times in the terminal. I'd think that they would be probably offering Aurigny a pretty good deal.

BKS

Sound common sense from you, there. Yes, AUR need to keep their feet on the ground (if you'll pardon the pun) with this service. It would seem best to approach it in a modest way & then gradually grow it, if it can be grown.
Whatever happens, I wish it well. But, it should be remembered that Guernsey can only support limited destinations & limited services. There simply is not the demand for many destinations or very frequent services on most of the routes; & 7 days a week (even in Summer) to Leeds would seem to me to be way out of step for the potential demand !

BKS
 

Memories!!

Arrivals by Bus at Gatwick
 

As of yesterday Aurigny passengers from Guernsey are being taken by bus to the domestic arrivals to prevent mingling with international passengers.

Does anyone know how arrivals from Jersey / Ireland by other bigger airlines are being dealt with? Is it any different at the North terminal?

BA north terminal walk or bus to domestic arrivals from Jersey. Don't know about Easy.

Would be better if they had rear steps to speed up disembarkation as you have to walk up the pier then down the stairs as if getting on the ATR.

Leeds Service
 

I find it quite perculiar that the registered offices of Aurigny are based in Jersey!! Only reading of the PDF for route application. Also the fact that Jersey has it so it will work from Guernsey. Sounds like some really top notch surveys have been carried out!!!

Cobopete

Just a few questions. Its all well and good providing the provisional statistics for pax going to certain airports, but that does not really quantify anything.
eg
I believe Jersey-Manchester is a single daily service run by DH8D, where as Guernsey-Manchester is a double daily service operated by AT72. Both a/c can carry similar number of pax's, so this would suggest quite low load factors on the Aurigny a/c?!

All I'm saying is that just because JJ can do it (quote from route application pdf), does not necessarily mean JB can do it. JJ has circa 100,000 residents compared to JB 65,000. A difference of 45% ish. Routes are only going to make money if you can fill the seats at reasonable prices so I suggest that comparing routes between islands is not as straight forward as saying Jersey can make it work so we can as well. If you want to go down that route then the Politicians elected in JB would have allowed competition on the LGW route from easyjet. But as we saw, there is a significant conflict of interest between our states, our own airline and the department which permits new air routes.

Leeds route
 

Wake up
I agree with most of your post, but would like to make the point that if a Jersey route doesn't pay, one from the same place to GCI certainly won't! You are right to point out the converse is not always true. I was struck by the size of the Leeds - Jersey pax figure and put the other figures in to illustrate comparable numbers on routes that seem well established
We wait and see what happens next.

I too was surprised the registered office was a Jersey address.

PS I believe easy really pulled out because GCI runway is too short to accept fully loaded 737s. Easy and empty seats don't go too well together!

I don't think that there EVER was any prospect of EZY operating to Guernsey. Nor do I think that they ever will do. Extended runway, or not.
To think otherwise is wishful thinking & unrealistic !

kcockayne is correct, Easyjet didn't pull out because they never applied to operate a Gatwick service in the first place.

Would the States of Guernsey have allowed another airline to compete with theirs?