NOW start date
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So when Now go public on their route network are easy likely to compete to the same or similar destinations?
If as stated folk have left easy for Now, could there be a vendetta focused from within easyLand?
If as stated folk have left easy for Now, could there be a vendetta focused from within easyLand?
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Buster all the airlines are likely to try and blow NOW out of the water on routes they feel they are threatened on. Does anyone think Easy to NOW is a wise career progression at the present of time?
Ummm, how does that prove fixed planning works?. If costs are greater than revenue then it is a failure, the key point is getting enough people on board to make profit, that is when you can say it is a success or not. NOW may well make money on some routes, may well lose on other routes! at the end of the day if they can bring in more revenue than their costs then they will be ok, if they can't they are going to struggle.
Sagey
Cool, just checked Tegel from PIK,with Germania and its €88, so fixed planning does work...
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Problem for Cyrano
There is a major problem with Cyrano's model
You assume that all passengers will fly whatever the cost.
What if simpleprops passengers 1 and 2 only fly because the price is below £40?
Many people only fly low cost beacause its cheap, they dont care about the destination - at £20 they will go anyway.
The guys paying the top price will certainly fly anyway as they have to, the the folks in the cheap seats are largely only flying cos its cheap.
Problem with NOW is that they will undercharge the late bookers who would pay more, and are indifferent - and they will overcharge the early bookers, who therefore may choose not to fly at all, as they are the most price sensitive.
Its is simply crazy to fix prices. You are then reliant toally on high load factor to cover costs, and the only stimulation left to you is marketing - which is expensive and crowded.
You assume that all passengers will fly whatever the cost.
What if simpleprops passengers 1 and 2 only fly because the price is below £40?
Many people only fly low cost beacause its cheap, they dont care about the destination - at £20 they will go anyway.
The guys paying the top price will certainly fly anyway as they have to, the the folks in the cheap seats are largely only flying cos its cheap.
Problem with NOW is that they will undercharge the late bookers who would pay more, and are indifferent - and they will overcharge the early bookers, who therefore may choose not to fly at all, as they are the most price sensitive.
Its is simply crazy to fix prices. You are then reliant toally on high load factor to cover costs, and the only stimulation left to you is marketing - which is expensive and crowded.
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As Germania Express proves, they have fixed pricing, and are flying and making money, it is just that the concept of fixed pricing is still not engrained in British companies yet, NOW have obviously done their maths otherwise they would'nt gamble on the price structure. They feel confident it will succeed thats why they are going fixed price. I know for sure I would feel happier sitting next to a passenger who had paid the same as me, and lets face it, who on easyJet actually pays the low advertised price we see on their adverts all over the country..
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Yarpy
When I saw the terms and conditions on offer from NOW, they were terrible. That is why I turned down their kind "offer" of a job. As well as the fact they could not seem to give out contracts.
So, unless things have changed I suggets the terms you mention are just as bad. Anyone comment?
Flymate
How do you know GERMANIA EXPRESS make profit? Just because they are trying the model does not mean it works.....
When I saw the terms and conditions on offer from NOW, they were terrible. That is why I turned down their kind "offer" of a job. As well as the fact they could not seem to give out contracts.
So, unless things have changed I suggets the terms you mention are just as bad. Anyone comment?
Flymate
How do you know GERMANIA EXPRESS make profit? Just because they are trying the model does not mean it works.....
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Tailscrape
The fact that Germania Express are flying, have done for some time now proves that fixed pricing works. I have been given my start date and will be signing my contract shortly, I have been patient with them, have met the CEO and others from the office. They all know what the sceptics are saying: "Now or never etc".They are not rushing into operations just to hush up the sceptics. They will be in the air, when all is ready. They are being cautious and are working on things so that they get things right. The worst they could do is rush into operations, then shortly after go bust and make 300 people unemployed. Maybe you can ask me how it all is tailscrape after a few months-then maybe you'll venture out and join this exciting new venture. I understand some people are more cautious to join a new airline than others, but tailscrape, please don't be so negative about NOW. I have met the important people at NOW and am quite hapy with what they are planning.
I remember similar things being said about "this new airline starting up at Luton". "It'll never work". That turned out to be easyJet.
I remember similar things being said about "this new airline starting up at Luton". "It'll never work". That turned out to be easyJet.
Last edited by FLYMATE; 31st Aug 2003 at 02:21.
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Now thats the sort of debate I've been trying to get going for some time (if you'll pardon the pun).
Fixed pricing doesn't work. The fact the Germania are trying it, doesn't prove it's working.
There are many operators trying to grab a share of the ever over-subscribed market. Ryanair admitted recently that they couldn't give seats away. Easyjet figures have suffered, although they should see some recovery during the summer months. MyTravel Lite and Jet 2 are conveniently working as part of a bigger operation so their "success" or otherwise is impossible to measure in real terms.
The secret of success in the low cost sector is CASH. In it's third year of operation, Go finally made a profit of approx £3M, on revenues of over $150M. It had previously lost onealy £30M over it's first two years....but it was succeeding because it usually had over £40M in cash in the bank in advance bookings, by selling off the "cheap" seats early to keep the cash balances up.
Now will not have that luxury. It will not have the benefits of scale (I recall Barbara stating at an employment conference that
she felt 20 aircraft was close to the figure where economies of scales worked.)
The feeling from the outside is that NOW is struggling to convince any serious investor that it's business plan stands up to scrutiny, particularly the decision to take on the biggest (easy) on it's home turf. It has yet to announce any serious Board Room members, and everything is being delayed because there is no money in the bank to commit to Reservation systems, aircraft , crews or anything else for that matter.
Before you all come back with another series of personal assaults, can I just remind you that these are my considered views....and those of fellow financial and aviation professionals. I don't ask you to agree with them, but if you are going to respond, can we keep it in the context of the thread.
Thomas Cook Man
Fixed pricing doesn't work. The fact the Germania are trying it, doesn't prove it's working.
There are many operators trying to grab a share of the ever over-subscribed market. Ryanair admitted recently that they couldn't give seats away. Easyjet figures have suffered, although they should see some recovery during the summer months. MyTravel Lite and Jet 2 are conveniently working as part of a bigger operation so their "success" or otherwise is impossible to measure in real terms.
The secret of success in the low cost sector is CASH. In it's third year of operation, Go finally made a profit of approx £3M, on revenues of over $150M. It had previously lost onealy £30M over it's first two years....but it was succeeding because it usually had over £40M in cash in the bank in advance bookings, by selling off the "cheap" seats early to keep the cash balances up.
Now will not have that luxury. It will not have the benefits of scale (I recall Barbara stating at an employment conference that
she felt 20 aircraft was close to the figure where economies of scales worked.)
The feeling from the outside is that NOW is struggling to convince any serious investor that it's business plan stands up to scrutiny, particularly the decision to take on the biggest (easy) on it's home turf. It has yet to announce any serious Board Room members, and everything is being delayed because there is no money in the bank to commit to Reservation systems, aircraft , crews or anything else for that matter.
Before you all come back with another series of personal assaults, can I just remind you that these are my considered views....and those of fellow financial and aviation professionals. I don't ask you to agree with them, but if you are going to respond, can we keep it in the context of the thread.
Thomas Cook Man
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To quote jmc-man: -
--------------------
It has yet to announce any serious Board Room members, and everything is being delayed because there is no money in the bank to commit to Reservation systems, aircraft , crews or anything else for that matter.
Before you all come back with another series of personal assaults, can I just remind you that these are my considered views....and those of fellow financial and aviation professionals. I don't ask you to agree with them, but if you are going to respond, can we keep it in the context of the thread.
------------------------
Well. I would have thought a former Director of Finance at Ernst and Young in charge of finance would have been a fairly serious appointment. The Chairman was founder of LIFFE and reading the rest of his bio on their website not what I'd call a lightweight. If you bother yourself with a brief look at their website, you will see that the CEO also seems to have held some fairly significant positions so I expect he knows a thing or 2 about business.
jmc-man - your considered views are in fact your considered guesswork. Unless NOW have been incredibly lax with their commercial security you cannot know whether or not they have money in the bank. I actually know some pilots offered employment by them and undergoing training (presumeably not being given for free) so you might have to retract some of your considered views.
This all reminds me as a fellow aviation professional of one of the maxims of flight safety which is 'don't assume - check'. I'm sure that we'd all agree wthat we should not deal with rumours and guesswork - work with facts.
--------------------
It has yet to announce any serious Board Room members, and everything is being delayed because there is no money in the bank to commit to Reservation systems, aircraft , crews or anything else for that matter.
Before you all come back with another series of personal assaults, can I just remind you that these are my considered views....and those of fellow financial and aviation professionals. I don't ask you to agree with them, but if you are going to respond, can we keep it in the context of the thread.
------------------------
Well. I would have thought a former Director of Finance at Ernst and Young in charge of finance would have been a fairly serious appointment. The Chairman was founder of LIFFE and reading the rest of his bio on their website not what I'd call a lightweight. If you bother yourself with a brief look at their website, you will see that the CEO also seems to have held some fairly significant positions so I expect he knows a thing or 2 about business.
jmc-man - your considered views are in fact your considered guesswork. Unless NOW have been incredibly lax with their commercial security you cannot know whether or not they have money in the bank. I actually know some pilots offered employment by them and undergoing training (presumeably not being given for free) so you might have to retract some of your considered views.
This all reminds me as a fellow aviation professional of one of the maxims of flight safety which is 'don't assume - check'. I'm sure that we'd all agree wthat we should not deal with rumours and guesswork - work with facts.
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Well said Gypsy!
Is it possible that Tailscrape could actually be the LPL base Capt. that had one recently but quietly swept it under the orange carpet?
And as for JMC-Man or Thomas Cook Man or which ever alter ego he seems to follow today, your considered opinion may need some reconsidering.
Like many of the other regular readers of this thread, I too have met "The Team" and am looking forward to working with them in the common goal of achieving a profitable airline in the very near future.
Comments on beating Easy at their own game on their turf are unfounded. While the seats will be cheap, NOW is offering something totally foreign to easy/low cost pax and that is customer service. Gone are the days when your fiver will get you a dried up sandwich, that appears to have a filling but on closer inspection is just a ruse, and a warm burnt brown liquid. Here are NOW with cafe style gourmet-wich and a properly brewed coffee. Add to this the fact that NOW are going to the planned destination as opposed to some grass strip in the boon docks and, IMHO, business travellers will be somewhere a little less orange and a little classier. NOW is not a competitor to the likes of easy but filling a gap in the market as yet untapped.
I suspect the business traveller will buy tickets in advance for several zones and the NOW reservation ethos will allow them to use them on any destination they desire within that zone. Flexibility that modern business requires and should expect. They will be delivered refreshed by the aforementioned gourmet grub and on time to an airport near to their desired destination having been served by a flight crew that wants to be there as they are enjoying working for the aforementioned team and who are well rested after a stable and sensible roster pattern (did I hear that a well respected ex go/easy crew controller has jumped the orange ship?).
All that said, it is simple to understand some peoples trepidation, but it should not be at the cost of a company generating much needed jobs in our currently delicate community. In other words, easy management, keep to the reading of the threads and get your heads together on where you are going to find replacements for your next wave of resignations as people start to see the grass is NOW greener elsewhere!
Is it possible that Tailscrape could actually be the LPL base Capt. that had one recently but quietly swept it under the orange carpet?
And as for JMC-Man or Thomas Cook Man or which ever alter ego he seems to follow today, your considered opinion may need some reconsidering.
Like many of the other regular readers of this thread, I too have met "The Team" and am looking forward to working with them in the common goal of achieving a profitable airline in the very near future.
Comments on beating Easy at their own game on their turf are unfounded. While the seats will be cheap, NOW is offering something totally foreign to easy/low cost pax and that is customer service. Gone are the days when your fiver will get you a dried up sandwich, that appears to have a filling but on closer inspection is just a ruse, and a warm burnt brown liquid. Here are NOW with cafe style gourmet-wich and a properly brewed coffee. Add to this the fact that NOW are going to the planned destination as opposed to some grass strip in the boon docks and, IMHO, business travellers will be somewhere a little less orange and a little classier. NOW is not a competitor to the likes of easy but filling a gap in the market as yet untapped.
I suspect the business traveller will buy tickets in advance for several zones and the NOW reservation ethos will allow them to use them on any destination they desire within that zone. Flexibility that modern business requires and should expect. They will be delivered refreshed by the aforementioned gourmet grub and on time to an airport near to their desired destination having been served by a flight crew that wants to be there as they are enjoying working for the aforementioned team and who are well rested after a stable and sensible roster pattern (did I hear that a well respected ex go/easy crew controller has jumped the orange ship?).
All that said, it is simple to understand some peoples trepidation, but it should not be at the cost of a company generating much needed jobs in our currently delicate community. In other words, easy management, keep to the reading of the threads and get your heads together on where you are going to find replacements for your next wave of resignations as people start to see the grass is NOW greener elsewhere!
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NOW is offering something totally foreign to easy/low cost pax and that is customer service. Gone are the days when your fiver will get you a dried up sandwich, that appears to have a filling but on closer inspection is just a ruse, and a warm burnt brown liquid. Here are NOW with cafe style gourmet-wich and a properly brewed coffee. Add to this the fact that NOW are going to the planned destination as opposed to some grass strip in the boon docks and, IMHO, business travellers will be somewhere a little less orange and a little classier.
You are going to have to convince the public at large (not just the business traveller) that A) it is worth flying NOW, and missing out on really low fares offered by the competition (some of which also fly to centrally-located airports) B) That a 'cafe style gourmet' and 'better customer service' more than compensates for this.
No offence, but personally, I don't yet see the advantages of flying NOW over the competition. The majority of low-cost travellers are angling for cheap fares, not better-tasting coffee - or they would still be flying BA.
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Setting aside all financial and regulatory issues and looking at recruitment.
If this appointment is confirmed NOW simply have to use a single line ad for future recruitment:
"Rostering by Nick Watts" followed by a telephone number.
People are very rarely shy about venting their spleen here but you will be very hard pressed indeed to find a single word of criticism in the 8 years we've been running the site regarding Nick.
He's genuinely acknowledged by the pilot groups at both KLM Uk and Go as being the best they've ever known. Had easy ever had the wit or the openess to acknowledge someone from another airline can be not just competent but utterly outstanding in their skills they could have had a vital asset working for them.
However, I suspect easyLand's hubris deflectors are ramped up to maximum 'wattage' over this little problemette.
Regards
Rob
If this appointment is confirmed NOW simply have to use a single line ad for future recruitment:
"Rostering by Nick Watts" followed by a telephone number.
People are very rarely shy about venting their spleen here but you will be very hard pressed indeed to find a single word of criticism in the 8 years we've been running the site regarding Nick.
He's genuinely acknowledged by the pilot groups at both KLM Uk and Go as being the best they've ever known. Had easy ever had the wit or the openess to acknowledge someone from another airline can be not just competent but utterly outstanding in their skills they could have had a vital asset working for them.
However, I suspect easyLand's hubris deflectors are ramped up to maximum 'wattage' over this little problemette.
Regards
Rob
Last edited by PPRuNe Towers; 31st Aug 2003 at 22:27.
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Gypsy
I took your advice and looked at the website...
So far you have a chief financial officer with experience, a COO with NO EXPERIENCE , and a couple of "interim" appointments. The only "experienced" person who has joined the team is the Chief Training Captain. The "Chief Pilot" has NO experience. If PPT's line is true about Nick Watts, then you certainly have made a good catch there.
Can I re-iterate what I said earlier. If the finance was in place, you would all have signed contracts. You havn't, so finance is not in place. Letters of Intent for aircraft leases (including deposits) would need to be in place some time ago for an October start. No announcement on that yet. The website states that flying will start in October, but there is no reservation system, and no confirmed routes. The PR company states that it does not know when NOW will start, so they have been told nothing.
Hackneyed Harry
I don't work for easyJet, but believe what you wan't.
The money isn't there.....
The money won't be there without a booking system.....
October is about the worst time of the year to start an airline......
Fixed pricing doesn't work......
So far I have seen or heard nothing to convince me that things are likely to happen soon.....so credibility is non-existent...and it doesn't matter when NOW announce the routes, easy will no doubt do all in their power to protect their patch, just as Ryanair and BMI did to GO in their time.
jmc man
I took your advice and looked at the website...
So far you have a chief financial officer with experience, a COO with NO EXPERIENCE , and a couple of "interim" appointments. The only "experienced" person who has joined the team is the Chief Training Captain. The "Chief Pilot" has NO experience. If PPT's line is true about Nick Watts, then you certainly have made a good catch there.
Can I re-iterate what I said earlier. If the finance was in place, you would all have signed contracts. You havn't, so finance is not in place. Letters of Intent for aircraft leases (including deposits) would need to be in place some time ago for an October start. No announcement on that yet. The website states that flying will start in October, but there is no reservation system, and no confirmed routes. The PR company states that it does not know when NOW will start, so they have been told nothing.
Hackneyed Harry
I don't work for easyJet, but believe what you wan't.
The money isn't there.....
The money won't be there without a booking system.....
October is about the worst time of the year to start an airline......
Fixed pricing doesn't work......
So far I have seen or heard nothing to convince me that things are likely to happen soon.....so credibility is non-existent...and it doesn't matter when NOW announce the routes, easy will no doubt do all in their power to protect their patch, just as Ryanair and BMI did to GO in their time.
jmc man
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aj and jmc-man are right.
As I said in a post at the beginning of this thread, I will be VERY surprised if NOW starts flying. If they do find the money then I think their chances of surviving the winter will be about 10%.
The fixed fare thing will not work. It will result in their seats not selling until their competitors have sold all their cheapest seats. In order to have any chance to survive they will need immediate sales and FLEXIBILITY in their pricing.
And unfortunately, the last thing the UK needs now is another airline.
Won't happen!
As I said in a post at the beginning of this thread, I will be VERY surprised if NOW starts flying. If they do find the money then I think their chances of surviving the winter will be about 10%.
The fixed fare thing will not work. It will result in their seats not selling until their competitors have sold all their cheapest seats. In order to have any chance to survive they will need immediate sales and FLEXIBILITY in their pricing.
And unfortunately, the last thing the UK needs now is another airline.
Won't happen!
Talking of daft tactics the latest bit of orange nonsense is telling the pilots that, if they move to Now they will not, under any circumstances, be welcome back at easyJet.
I haven't heard that. In and of itself that would be illegal. You can have a general policy that ex-staff will not be reconsidered but even that is a minefield for discrimination legislation.
I also doubt they could afford to ignore experienced 737 skippers when they are hiring contract guys to cover the Airbus introduction.
NOW do seem to have recruited some experience, talented personnel. One has to speculate that if they are convinced enough to lay their careers in jeopardy then there must be some merit to NOWs ambitions.
Good luck the them, more airlines competing for more pilots can only do us all good in the long run.
WWW
I haven't heard that. In and of itself that would be illegal. You can have a general policy that ex-staff will not be reconsidered but even that is a minefield for discrimination legislation.
I also doubt they could afford to ignore experienced 737 skippers when they are hiring contract guys to cover the Airbus introduction.
NOW do seem to have recruited some experience, talented personnel. One has to speculate that if they are convinced enough to lay their careers in jeopardy then there must be some merit to NOWs ambitions.
Good luck the them, more airlines competing for more pilots can only do us all good in the long run.
WWW
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I am finding it amusing how people are trying to score points over eachother here, with people trying to uncover who speakers are by implying who they work for or who they "might" work for.
I am all for opinions. When an opinion is shared, please at least listen and if you don't agree with it, at least don't go about trying to assassinate their character. Don't blow people's cover, the whole point of these forums is for people to express an opinion without fear of being "dobbed" in to their employer.
Yes there are some egos here, but I am also learning quite a lot about all aspects of an airline trying to start up operations. So let the debate continue, in a relaxed and considerate way.
I am all for opinions. When an opinion is shared, please at least listen and if you don't agree with it, at least don't go about trying to assassinate their character. Don't blow people's cover, the whole point of these forums is for people to express an opinion without fear of being "dobbed" in to their employer.
Yes there are some egos here, but I am also learning quite a lot about all aspects of an airline trying to start up operations. So let the debate continue, in a relaxed and considerate way.
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Beyond:
You're quite right - I didn't consider the effect that raising the lowest prices would have on demand. Humble apologies.
If in fact these higher prices have the effect of cancelling out the increase in demand due to advertising, publicity, etc., then Then Airlines is left in an even worse position, since there's no overspill from Simpleprop, who carry all the passengers.
On a more general point: I would like to see Now work, just as I would like to see any new airline work. I applaud their intention of creating something different, both in terms of service and of pricing. I just haven't yet seen an argument that convinces me that fixed pricing works. Yes, Germania Express has been using it for a few months - sorry, but that's not enough evidence for me.
C.
You're quite right - I didn't consider the effect that raising the lowest prices would have on demand. Humble apologies.
If in fact these higher prices have the effect of cancelling out the increase in demand due to advertising, publicity, etc., then Then Airlines is left in an even worse position, since there's no overspill from Simpleprop, who carry all the passengers.
On a more general point: I would like to see Now work, just as I would like to see any new airline work. I applaud their intention of creating something different, both in terms of service and of pricing. I just haven't yet seen an argument that convinces me that fixed pricing works. Yes, Germania Express has been using it for a few months - sorry, but that's not enough evidence for me.
C.