BA to buy Virgin Atlantic - Sunday Times says
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Ditto
'Eltel' spot on, a business man sells when the time is right and now seems shrewd enough. With the monies he can start again just like so many have done before him.
On the down side BA would have a terrible time uniting the two outfits and would have to accept exactly the same problems that came with BCAL, DANAIR, Brymon, CityFlyer, BRAL, and the many others that have gone before.
BMI in the past must have spoken at length with BA when BRAL were taken over and as one or two have suggested the BMI link might be the best of a bad bunch. Over to 'Skippy', Lord Marshall and those other great and good board members.
On the down side BA would have a terrible time uniting the two outfits and would have to accept exactly the same problems that came with BCAL, DANAIR, Brymon, CityFlyer, BRAL, and the many others that have gone before.
BMI in the past must have spoken at length with BA when BRAL were taken over and as one or two have suggested the BMI link might be the best of a bad bunch. Over to 'Skippy', Lord Marshall and those other great and good board members.
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Branson's cash
FYI the Rich List bit on him wasn't too well worded. I would think the Virgin empire is worth lots more than 1.2bn in assets and IP alone, but a lot has been hived off completely or partially and his overall stake in all the companies bearing the Virgin name is what they mean by 1.25bn.
Wouldn't a BMI/Virgin merger make the most sense? Brings VG into the Star alliance, creates a UK airline that could compete on transatlantic, domestic and European routes.
Wouldn't a BMI/Virgin merger make the most sense? Brings VG into the Star alliance, creates a UK airline that could compete on transatlantic, domestic and European routes.
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Meanwhile, back in the real world
For my sins, I work on the business end of airlines, and a few thoughts seem to be to be blindingly obvious...
VS have 747-400s, and 340s of various variant..... BA are doing their best to cut capacity, are looking to offload a few 747-400s, and want 340s on the books about as much as they want the plague. So why would they want the planes?
VS have a relatively tiny number of slots at LHR compared to BA, or for that matter, compared to BD. This would be an expensive way of getting relatively few slots - there are way more sensible targets for BA to buy if they are after slots.
The chances of our lords and masters at the MMC even reading a proposal to merge the UK's #1 and #2 airlines are about as high as us all seeing the Queen's bum on telly tonight.
BUT - BD and VS makes sense. It would provide what both sides want:
- a shorthaul network to feed VS;
- some critical mass at Heathrow and a more balanced med/long haul fleet for both (remember the CCQ on 330/340?);
- a way for SM to realise his millions, and perhaps leave the regional business to play on its own;
- baby and VEX are not in the equation, imho. Baby is going for its own AOC - ask yourself why? VEX is pretty standalone anyway - my guess is they will both be exluded from a deal that will tie up VS and BD Mainline/longhaul...
BA are mouthing off to the press because they are rattled. BDVS would give them a real headache, giving them what they have never had to face - serious competition on the long-haul (and the North Atlantic in particular) backed up by a great domestic/Euro feeder network.
You heard it here first - BD VS will happen, Baby will fly solo, regional will become the "new" British Midland.... and the whole BD VS thing will go into Star.
TA
VS have 747-400s, and 340s of various variant..... BA are doing their best to cut capacity, are looking to offload a few 747-400s, and want 340s on the books about as much as they want the plague. So why would they want the planes?
VS have a relatively tiny number of slots at LHR compared to BA, or for that matter, compared to BD. This would be an expensive way of getting relatively few slots - there are way more sensible targets for BA to buy if they are after slots.
The chances of our lords and masters at the MMC even reading a proposal to merge the UK's #1 and #2 airlines are about as high as us all seeing the Queen's bum on telly tonight.
BUT - BD and VS makes sense. It would provide what both sides want:
- a shorthaul network to feed VS;
- some critical mass at Heathrow and a more balanced med/long haul fleet for both (remember the CCQ on 330/340?);
- a way for SM to realise his millions, and perhaps leave the regional business to play on its own;
- baby and VEX are not in the equation, imho. Baby is going for its own AOC - ask yourself why? VEX is pretty standalone anyway - my guess is they will both be exluded from a deal that will tie up VS and BD Mainline/longhaul...
BA are mouthing off to the press because they are rattled. BDVS would give them a real headache, giving them what they have never had to face - serious competition on the long-haul (and the North Atlantic in particular) backed up by a great domestic/Euro feeder network.
You heard it here first - BD VS will happen, Baby will fly solo, regional will become the "new" British Midland.... and the whole BD VS thing will go into Star.
TA
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I agree completely with TwinAisle; BD/VS makes superb sense.
Without wishing to repeat his comments, I'd say:
- The A330/340 CCQ advantage spreads to the rest of the fleet in that BMI will more than likely acquire 319s and that will give an all Airbus short haul fleet, with easy conversion to the widebodies.
- There's no conflict in terms of routes
- VS already deals with the STAR Alliance
- Both airlines have generally good service reputations
Maybe they will be content to codeshare and market more closely, rather than merge, but the potential is clearly there for a deal.
BA and VS won't happen, won't even be allowed to happen and regardless of SQ's SARS problems now, they're not going to sell out to a major competitor.
Without wishing to repeat his comments, I'd say:
- The A330/340 CCQ advantage spreads to the rest of the fleet in that BMI will more than likely acquire 319s and that will give an all Airbus short haul fleet, with easy conversion to the widebodies.
- There's no conflict in terms of routes
- VS already deals with the STAR Alliance
- Both airlines have generally good service reputations
Maybe they will be content to codeshare and market more closely, rather than merge, but the potential is clearly there for a deal.
BA and VS won't happen, won't even be allowed to happen and regardless of SQ's SARS problems now, they're not going to sell out to a major competitor.
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The BD/VS topic is being done in Aircrew Notices (though it seems to have turned into an internal bmi pilots vs ops/crewing rant
). For the record, TwinAisle these were my thoughts on that topic:
The conclusion differs from yours, but we seem to agree on the irrelevance of Virgin Express and bmibaby to this deal!
). For the record, TwinAisle these were my thoughts on that topic:
If this were to happen, and it's a big 'if', it would be in effect a takeover of bmi by Virgin, though it may be presented as a merger. This has been under discussion for some years, although both parties have blown hot and cold over the affair. It seems to me that bmi, whose long-haul aspirations are pretty much defunct, and Virgin, whose Heathrow expansion plans are stymied by lack of slots, have re-started negotiations in the hope that their owners' mutual dislike can be overcome in the financial interest of both companies!
The outlook for bmiBaby and Virgin Express is probably fairly neutral from this deal, as they don't compete on many (if any) routes. Virgin Express is, and always has been, nothing to do with Atlantic, and bmiBaby is going to be placed outside the bmi fold - before the deal, if it happens.
The business 'fit' for the deal has been quoted many times in the past as justification for the deal, but I'm not so sure that any airline needs to cover the gamut of possible markets - indeed, it's arguable that BA would be far better off without shorthaul. Why should it be different for VS? It's likely that non-first-class long haul will enter a period of reasonable expansion and profitability over the nest few years, but that short haul (particularly full-service scheduled - bmi's core market) will suffer at the hands of the low-cost lines. Who would buy into the bmi business in that light? Not me!
So, I don't put too much credence in these reports, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear about further codesharing and other 'synergies' in the near future.
The outlook for bmiBaby and Virgin Express is probably fairly neutral from this deal, as they don't compete on many (if any) routes. Virgin Express is, and always has been, nothing to do with Atlantic, and bmiBaby is going to be placed outside the bmi fold - before the deal, if it happens.
The business 'fit' for the deal has been quoted many times in the past as justification for the deal, but I'm not so sure that any airline needs to cover the gamut of possible markets - indeed, it's arguable that BA would be far better off without shorthaul. Why should it be different for VS? It's likely that non-first-class long haul will enter a period of reasonable expansion and profitability over the nest few years, but that short haul (particularly full-service scheduled - bmi's core market) will suffer at the hands of the low-cost lines. Who would buy into the bmi business in that light? Not me!
So, I don't put too much credence in these reports, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear about further codesharing and other 'synergies' in the near future.
