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Old 12th Nov 2022, 10:46
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is this EIuk venture really a goldmine worth Aer Lingus’ while? Just get impression it is all a bit marginal and was just a ‘what can we do with all these extra aircraft we ordered’ sort of venture that could be pulled as quick as it was set up.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 13:22
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I don’t think they’d be upgauging JFK if there were any plans to pull the plug in the next couple of years. Plenty of demand for A330s ex DUB, they’ve had to delay launching DUB-DEN due lack of staff and airframes. The question marks really hang over expansion. The mooted MAN-BOS A321 route will be competing with potential future expansion ex DUB, eg YQB, YUL, PIT, MCI, BUF etc so will face tough competition for allocation of airframes. They were expected to resume DUB-MSP on the XLR once it starts arriving but Delta as of today have slots on ACL for that route on the B763 so that might be reconsidered, possibly an extra airframe available for MAN.

Where do local enthusiasts think there’s an unserved demand they should aim for?
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 18:11
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As SLF with no industry experience, this is very puzzling. OK, EI UK have only two planes, so uneconomic to have a spare. But, EI in total have quite a significant longhaul fleet, so surely one spare plane could cover tech problems from MAN and DUB. Ah, you say, but maybe an Irish registered plane couldn't just turn up and fly an EI UK flight. But, if a plane with any registration were chartered that would be OK, so a bit of nifty paperwork should overcome that hurdle.

Am I just naive, or should I be running an airline?
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 18:50
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It would be useful to think of this at an Aer Lingus level. IF there's a business case presented that the UK based aircraft could be used more effectively out of Dublin base, that would happen. Those are Aer Lingus assets, albeit currently based in the UK. So, I would say, MAN has to over-perform expectations to survive. Remember when both BA and BMI's home bases decided that the MAN based fleets would be more profitable out of LHR? THAT mentality.

Whoops Una Due Tfc just said something similar, not plagarising, honest!
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 19:35
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The load factors, compared to last year at least are significantly better. I've heard 84% for Aug, which isn't too bad considering VS going x2/day to MCO on most days. The BGI is averaging over 200 pax per flight compared to about 50ish last year, so things are improving. There's also a significant volume of cargo being carried too.

Also being reported is that all sales ex U.S on EI UK are no longer available. All flights showing via DUB to MAN. Not sure why this would be.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 21:26
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Originally Posted by golf yankee one one
As SLF with no industry experience, this is very puzzling. OK, EI UK have only two planes, so uneconomic to have a spare. But, EI in total have quite a significant longhaul fleet, so surely one spare plane could cover tech problems from MAN and DUB. Ah, you say, but maybe an Irish registered plane couldn't just turn up and fly an EI UK flight. But, if a plane with any registration were chartered that would be OK, so a bit of nifty paperwork should overcome that hurdle.

Am I just naive, or should I be running an airline?
Brexit!
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 22:55
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Originally Posted by The96er
The load factors, compared to last year at least are significantly better. I've heard 84% for Aug, which isn't too bad considering VS going x2/day to MCO on most days. The BGI is averaging over 200 pax per flight compared to about 50ish last year, so things are improving. There's also a significant volume of cargo being carried too.

Also being reported is that all sales ex U.S on EI UK are no longer available. All flights showing via DUB to MAN. Not sure why this would be.
Yes, the loads have steadily improved to quite respectable levels over the summer at least, certainly in line with local rivals. Previous attempts by Aer Lingus at UK bases, most notably LGW, were always plagued with brand awareness issues which meant attracting passengers to their services was especially difficult, they no longer appear to be having that problem so that's one hurdle out of the way, now it's about making it profitable and whether there's a place for it alongside the DUB operation in the long term. I believe it can and should be pursued but it will often come down to where best to position assets and DUB will regularly have an upper hand.

As for the US sales, this happened when the flights first went live and lasted several weeks, I seem to remember it was a US DOT clause requiring Aer Lingus UK to prove it would eventually market and sell tickets itself. The airline was likely granted permission for US point of origin sales on certain exemptions which have now expired and in typical Aer Lingus fashion, they haven't secured a permanent solution yet. It sounds all very classic Aer Lingus I'm afraid.
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 14:19
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Ive heard a rumour that EI are going to cancel the MAN-BGI route. has anyone else heard this?

Last edited by sunshine79; 17th Nov 2022 at 16:55. Reason: typo
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 16:35
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Where's BI?

If you mean BGI then judging by the loads I'd say unlikely ...
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 16:56
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Originally Posted by cumbrianboy
Where's BI?

If you mean BGI then judging by the loads I'd say unlikely ...
Oops typo, I have edited
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 20:15
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Originally Posted by sunshine79
Ive heard a rumour that EI are going to cancel the MAN-BGI route. has anyone else heard this?
still taking on new crew 🤔
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Old 17th Nov 2022, 21:47
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MCO appears to be continuing at daily much further into November 2023 than previously, indicating either a later start for BGI or it’s cancellation.

It wouldn’t surprise me, outside of the holidays it’s been very weak. The only positive is how well it appears to do up front.

Originally Posted by pabloc
still taking on new crew 🤔
Presumably for next summer. If BGI is axed, it won’t be until next winter.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 17:02
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Booked MAN-MCO-MAN for Jan 23 many moons ago for a party of 20. Have been looking recently at the seat map and there were 55 outbound and 40 inbound on our flights at last look, which obviously caused a little worry as to the possibility of a cancellation with such poor loads. The worry was not unwarranted as today we've had the flights cancelled on us. I doubt I'll try them again to be honest and back to Virgin it is.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 20:07
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Originally Posted by eggc
Booked MAN-MCO-MAN for Jan 23 many moons ago for a party of 20. Have been looking recently at the seat map and there were 55 outbound and 40 inbound on our flights at last look, which obviously caused a little worry as to the possibility of a cancellation with such poor loads. The worry was not unwarranted as today we've had the flights cancelled on us. I doubt I'll try them again to be honest and back to Virgin it is.
Thanks for the heads up, I've just checked all of our bookings and the flights are canx from 16th to 28th Jan. Flights start up again 29th Jan.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 21:06
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Originally Posted by sunshine79
Thanks for the heads up, I've just checked all of our bookings and the flights are canx from 16th to 28th Jan. Flights start up again 29th Jan.
Ahhh, that is why our return flight is operating early Feb then. We've been looking at other flights and out via DUB and back direct to MAN is £100 each cheaper - so cash back and no huge immigration queues at MCO could be a win win. My only worry is that the return flight is still as empty as it was and I don't want to rebbok to be in the same position in a week or two if they cancel that also. Will sleep on it.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 21:41
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Originally Posted by eggc
Ahhh, that is why our return flight is operating early Feb then. We've been looking at other flights and out via DUB and back direct to MAN is £100 each cheaper - so cash back and no huge immigration queues at MCO could be a win win. My only worry is that the return flight is still as empty as it was and I don't want to rebbok to be in the same position in a week or two if they cancel that also. Will sleep on it.
A block of cancellations like that sounds more like for aircraft maintenance, than for commercial reasons, EI UK only having 1 A330.

Makes sense to plan the maintenance at the weakest time for bookings in the depth of the low season. Commercial cancellations more likely to take the form of selected dates being cancelled to reduce frequency, rather than a complete block of 12 days like that before returning to full frequency.

But I have no specific inside knowledge of Aer Lingus.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 21:54
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The aircraft is on a C check in January. No replacement aircraft available until March when EIDY returns.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 21:55
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huge immigration queues at MCO
Passed through MCO (BA from LGW) in Sept and happy to report that immigration was fairly quick - despite that we arrived in the hall at the same time as pax from a VS A350 that landed just after us.

Security on departure 2 weeks later was somewhat slower, with the usual customer-friendly TSA service
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 22:26
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Originally Posted by HOVIS
The aircraft is on a C check in January. No replacement aircraft available until March when EIDY returns.
Surely this is planned well in advance - so why sell tickets for that period in the first place and then cancel with just weeks to go. It alienates effected customers on a brand and route they are trying to build.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 23:15
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I'm guessing they were hoping to have either a spare aircraft (EIDY) available, or be allowed to sub in another. They haven't and they can't.
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