Aer Lingus uk
 

Any reason for EIUK losing G-EIDY back to Dublin? Now back to EI-EDY

Rumour of the 2 A330-200’s replacing the remaining A330-300 and the A321. The JFK route is performing well and could do with an upgrade, the MCO, although picking up is still not requiring of the A330-300 capacity.

will another 330-200 come in the winter for the BGI??

My thoughts were that I've noticed that quite often one of the A330s is on the ground at MAN anyway while the other one is doing the MCO flight. Your theory may be right though like

MCO has seen much more capacity previously and initially it seems surprising EIUK is not selling more seats...but then factor in the cost of living crisis, the exchange rate and look at just how much two weeks in Orlando (if visiting theme parks) costs you can quickly understand why numbers are not today like they used to be. It's a seriously costly excersise these days and is probably beyond the masses taking a familiy there anymore - ast least until total holiday price reduces, but thats unlikely when theme park tickets alone cost close to £1,000 per per person before you even think about flights, accomodation, transport and spending money.

They've never operated more than one daily A330 and one daily A321N so far as I can see? Zero need for two A330s at all.

Re-read what I wrote, the JFK route is performing very well and could probably sustain an upgrade to an A330. The MCO/BGI routes would continue on an A330. That makes x2 A330’s.

I don’t think the cost is a reason. From London MCO is still doing well with 6 daily flights (LGW/LHR) with TUI, Virgin and BA. I would imagine it’s just more people don’t think to check Aer Lingus or stick with Virgin/TUI (given there’s nearly 3 daily between them) from MAN because that’s who they booked their holiday with.

Voucher redemptions are a big factor. At MAN, Virgin and TUI are carrying high volumes of passengers who have redeemed vouchers provided in lieu of cancelled trips during covidworld. This is boosting load factors for those issuing carriers, but not providing fresh income - the original customer payments were made a long time ago. But Aer Lingus UK is a new launch operation out of MAN. Voucher redemptions must be close to negligible for them, so that means that loads rely on fresh bookings from travellers choosing to part with real cash in the very challenging contemporary environment. Cost-of-living concerns and airport horror stories combine to make customers think twice about splashing out for discretionary leisure travel right now.

As an aside, I myself made a number of air travel bookings once covid restrictions were lifted (though not Transatlantic with EI UK). I looked forward to to the return of hassle-free flying like we remember it pre-covid. Unfortunately, I have instead been lumbered with another FIVE flight cancellations, more vouchers and more interminable administrative hassle. One of the cancellations resulted in me having to pay three times the original fare with an alternative carrier. In another, I'm now in dispute with Wizz Air who failed to apply my 'Wizz Credit' to an online booking as they should have done; they are now claiming that this 'Wizz Credit' has expired and are refusing to refund it. They instead deducted the whole fare from my credit card, rather than the small balance due after application of the 'Wizz Credit'. And Wizz Air have since cancelled the new flights as well and issued new 'Wizz Credit' for them. I'm chasing up a refund for that now. All extremely annoying ... Wizz Air join the appalling Air Europa on my 'never trust this shower again' list. Sorry to ramble on, but the point is that air travel hassle is still very much an issue in the post-covid environment. I'm wary of booking any flights well in advance of departure date now, and if I am reluctant, you can be certain that those who tolerate rather than love air travel will be in no rush to subject themselves to this kind of thing either. Right now, air travel is a really tough sell for those who don't have expiring travel vouchers to use up before a deadline.

I only meant that having a planned fleet of three dedicated aircraft for the summer made no sense for only 14 scheduled weekly flights. It's not about whether a route "could probably sustain an upgrade" it's about when if and when Dublin ops want their aircraft back for mainline DUB-US. It would have to be a stellar business case to beat being based in Ireland IMHO. Everything depends how quickly their home market rebounds I think.

Data suggests that new bookings have been buoyant for the summer to say the least, they *should* have no problems filling MAN-US given how tight capacity is locally. Annual holidays are not yet seeing the cost of living impact in the way suggested, there's a massive appetite for travel, being frustrated by operational meltdowns across Europe and beyond.

I would respectfully suggest that the voucher redemption bulge is obscuring the weak rebound amongst those who must part with freshly-earned cash. Though I do accept that there is pent-up demand from those who did well financially during the pandemic but were unable to spend their earnings at the time.

What is this data you talk of…

The MCO route started during Covid and it was only a few weeks the USA dropped the testing requirement, loads are picking up nicely for the summer. JFK has been a strong performer fro day 1 and the logic of this going to an A330 is sound ... it would be a good development story.

The 2nd A330 going to DUB for the summer was always in the plan - it was just in MAN for the set up phase as a spare but that phase is over, so I wouldn't read anything into the A330 going back to dub other than it's peak summer and having aircraft doing nothing isn't wise.

The issue of MCO - it's a route people book a long way in advance. I've seen both the VS and EUK loads and to be honest they are both good in the summer and weaker outside the school holidays. VS is slightly higher but as has been said above, a lot of people will have booked and paid as far back as summer 2020 and only now able to go, so I'd say moving forward these will improve.

Overall though, it seems EUK is doing well, certainly when in relation to the chaos in other parts of aviation at the moment

The talk of JFK being upgauged doesn’t surprise me, it seems to have done consistently well since its launch. The only thing I would say is business class loads have some catching up to do.

As for the fleet, two A330-200s would make sense if JFK is to be upgauged but will the A321LR return to Dublin or used to launch Boston? The apparent success of JFK would have me lean towards starting BOS sooner rather than later.

2x A332s and 1x A321 should have no problem serving the four destinations at current frequencies.

Except of course you will struggle to get all the scheduled and unscheduled maintenance done during turnrounds. Which is why there was a spare A330.
Tech delays will now be more common.

That’s never really stopped Aer Lingus before, previous summers at Dublin were always very tight until the fleet became large enough to work in some spare capacity. The alternative of having an A330 sitting around doing nothing everyday isn’t viable.

Very prophetic Hovis.
Looks like that back up aircraft is needed more than ever.

Indeed. G-EILA operating MCO-MAN (EI34) diverted to DAB on 8 November due to smoke in the cockpit.

Cancellations since:

- EI31/EI30 on 9 November
- EI35/EI34 on 10 November
- EI31/EI30 on 11 November

Kind of surprised they haven't tried to bring in charters to cover to be honest.

I've just ben told by my customer on the EI31 that they are subbing in an a/c and operating today's flight tomorrow. I hope so, they can't just keep cancelling flights like this. Not a good start to the winter season when they've been shouting the route from the rooftops this week

ILA is returning tonight.