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Ryanair-11

Old 22nd Dec 2020, 15:55
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Along with the "G" reg comes CAA oversight and inspection................not something MOL will be keen on.
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Old 22nd Dec 2020, 16:49
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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However, Ryanair is apparently in the process of moving two Polish and two Maltese aircraft two Ryanair UK. Not sure it that will be sufficient to get below the 50 per cent threshold.
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Old 22nd Dec 2020, 17:02
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Reading the Brexiteer grievances here is worth the gold
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Old 22nd Dec 2020, 19:22
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Surely the CAA should require the number of UK - registered a/c to at least equal the number of a/c which are normally on the ground overnight in the UK in low season.
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Old 22nd Dec 2020, 23:32
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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virginblue

Out of curiosity is there an available source for this?
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 00:23
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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It was posted on a German aviation forum by someone who quoted ch-aviation (the article he linked to is paywalled):

https://www.vielfliegertreff.de/sons...ml#post3323733
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 05:23
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Handy link if I could speak German.
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 05:43
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Try having a look at the following (mentioned in the post from virginblue)
https://aviation.direct/ryanair-uk-u...eiche-strecken

You can set Chrome to automatically translate other languages for you - or use Google Translate. The link from virginblue gives the aircraft registration details

Last edited by davidjohnson6; 23rd Dec 2020 at 06:32.
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 08:31
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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LTNman
"Worth reading this from 2016 when they threatened to cut investment in the U.K in retaliation for the U.K voting to leave the EU. Well that never happened did it."
It is worth reading. Did you read it?
I read nothing of any threat or in retaliation.
I did read read about possible future plans to pivot growth toward Europe and perhaps set up a UK Operating Licence.
Are you tilting at windmills, DQ?
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 14:28
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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davidjohnson6

Use DeepL to have a proper translation for free.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 06:03
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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There appear to be a large number of routes which operate during Jan-Mar 2021, but which cease after 27 March. No, these are not ski or winter seasonal routes. The removal of flights seems to be across the network, and not specific to a single country or few airports

Is there a computer failure or some sort of major reworking of schedules going on ? If not, there appears to be a cull of about 15% of all routes across the network effective 27 March 2021
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 06:30
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Irish carrier’s chief plans to take seating capacity from distressed competitors

https://www.ft.com/content/79a64a0a-...f-4b731a3d71b6
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 09:59
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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davidjohnson6

Integration of Max ?
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 10:39
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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davidjohnson6

I think no airline can tell you with any degree of certainty what routes they will operate in Summer 2021. IF Covid becomes a part of history through burning itself out and vaccine then there will be lots of routes. However the big Caveat is will people be willing to travel. IMHO the answer is not yet.

Flying somewhere is about confidence as post 9/11 showed in Europe, then it was against a visible threat. now it is an invisible one.

People are influenced by others. So if Kevin and Sharon do a couple of weekend breaks and keep telling friends the message from them and others is flying is OK. Getting the same message from Del and Tracey etc etc then confidence will start to rise as people think "If they can then we can". Knowing someone who has done it an arrived back safe and well is key.

Confidence is fickle, as post 9/11 the AA crash on Long Island almost brought US Aviation into an immediate shutdown.

I do feel many marginal routes where airline only really makes money for 4 months a year but it covers most costs rest of year are under threat in 2021. Until population are back treating travel as before then airlines will chop and change routes all the time.

It is likely that during 2021 that routes will appear and disappear all the time but airlines will be in the driving seat, airports can not afford to be choosy as the local economies they serve will need as many travellers in to sustain jobs as possible.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 11:19
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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COVID is much worse as 9/11 for the aviation industry, Yes it is about confidence, but we are now lets say 10 months inn and the rules are changing per country overnight and mostly are getting worse and worse... and with a vaccine that will see enough people vaccinated in about 6-12 months I am afraid we can bin 2021 too... Even if we set all lights on green tomorrow and covid is gone by a miracle.. it will take 3-6 months to get recovery.. so that is between 9 and 18 months from now... sorry..

Been flying for work weekly also this year majority on RYR and during the year the chopping changing and cancelling only got worse and worse, I was surprised that they kept going so long without drastic route cuts as flights have been empty for RYR LF.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 13:10
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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H1 2021 is a write off, H2 is a who knows but likely will be ok, not good, not bad but ok. The issue will be for another 5 years is people will be Virus sceptics, the mere hint of one will change airlines markets up and down.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 13:54
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Fear of catching the C-19 virus itself is not the only thing holding back air travel. Most people cannot take the risk of being ordered to self-isolate at short-notice upon their return home (or at intended destination). People are wary following the debacle of the on / off 'travel corridors' and are in no hurry to be caught out by these again. Many lost money on non-refundable items like car hire and accommodation in 2020; they don't want to lose more. Others are put off by the requirement for a covid test taken within 72 hours of departure, often at greater expense than the underlying air fare. For a family that cost can mount up, and the test is only good for one trip. Some jurisdictions aren't allowing overseas nationals in at all yet, and we can't predict when that will change. Other countries have more overbearing restrictions than others: anyone fancy being muzzled-up 24/7 whenever outdoors in a tropical climate? And then there is the admin factor. Few relish another round of interminable phonecalls listening to muzak, unanswered emails and long waits for travel vouchers when flight arrangements have been cancelled yet again. Or - in the case of some Ryanair routes - customers lost their fares as the airline went ahead with flights which the passenger as an individual was banned from using on the grounds of nationality / residency.

My travel for the first half of 2021 will be limited to very late bookings with high confidence of going ahead to destinations which I know will be welcoming, open and not oppressively restricted. And I'll need to know that the destination I'm planning to visit isn't completely shut down too - we've got to be able to do the things we want to do and meet the people we want to meet when away. Avoiding the virus itself is only the start of it.

Set against this there are some positives. People holding travel vouchers will want to deploy them - especially if expiry date becomes an issue - though I think most of Ryanair's revert to a cash refund upon reaching their anniversary anyway. Though voucher redemptions don't represent new income for the airline. Folks who have worked throughout the crisis - in many cases (key workers) doing all the overtime they can bear - have the funds and inclination to treat themselves to a decent break away somewhere. Many of those furloughed have had money coming in and much reduced opportunity to spend. Pensions have been coming in as normal too. So there is pent-up demand to be satisfied once travel reliably opens up again.

When mass-market travel does come back, I would expect Ryanair to be a big winner. Their services can be booked easily at short notice to destinations which have been reliably opened up to visitors. They go to the right places for shorter, high confidence breaks away. And if travel is disrupted again, the funds committed are generally much lower than those for alternative long-haul or high-end trips. Ryanair also has the flexibility to blitz short-haul destinations which do reliably open up for bookings. Familiar 'old favourite' destinations will be in high demand once re-opened.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 14:27
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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On the leisure side I think long haul will be the big winner when things become easier. People haven’t been anywhere, like you say lots will have disposable income mounting and I think people will want a big ‘adventure’ as a reward for what they’ve been through. I suspect the ME3 along with the Chinese and others will be dumping low fares like we’ve never seen before.
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Old 29th Dec 2020, 12:52
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair blocks UK investors from buying shares in Brexit move - CityAM

https://flip.it/4hoeOK
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Old 29th Dec 2020, 15:46
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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AirportPlanner1

Perhaps in 2022, but I think short-haul is where it will be at for S21. Flexibility and ability to make changes at short notice are going to be key to confidence.
To various extent some form of certainty that you will:
1) able to go,
2) not have to quarantine on arrival,
3) get home quickly if things change
4) work remotely if things really go wrong,
5) not have to restrict movements/self-isolate on return
Will play to each individuals confidence. Many long haul destinations do not meet even one of those criteria. Time zones, for example could mean you would be working in the middle of the night in a £500+ a night over water Villa indefinitely. The EU traffic lights and physical proximity make short haul a better bet for a lot of people. I think bookings will trend close to departure, for all of the above. That said, I do agree that some will want to splash out, there are plenty of places around the Mediterranean and Adriatic with the ability to charge like a wounded bull!
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