AirportPlanner1
Perhaps in 2022, but I think short-haul is where it will be at for S21. Flexibility and ability to make changes at short notice are going to be key to confidence.
To various extent some form of certainty that you will:
1) able to go,
2) not have to quarantine on arrival,
3) get home quickly if things change
4) work remotely if things really go wrong,
5) not have to restrict movements/self-isolate on return
Will play to each individuals confidence. Many long haul destinations do not meet even one of those criteria. Time zones, for example could mean you would be working in the middle of the night in a £500+ a night over water Villa indefinitely. The EU traffic lights and physical proximity make short haul a better bet for a lot of people. I think bookings will trend close to departure, for all of the above. That said, I do agree that some will want to splash out, there are plenty of places around the Mediterranean and Adriatic with the ability to charge like a wounded bull!