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Belfast City Airport-2

Old 25th Mar 2018, 21:04
  #261 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: liverpool
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As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question.
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Old 25th Mar 2018, 21:09
  #262 (permalink)  
 
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As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question. Bit silly trying to back them up when facts mean facts.
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Old 26th Mar 2018, 07:12
  #263 (permalink)  
 
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A huge gamble all the same
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Old 26th Mar 2018, 08:03
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris_747 View Post
Just a bit fed up of people always looking for some reason to put something down
I would suggest part of the reason might be that this is primarily a 'Professional Pilots' forum and these somewhat shifty operators (though I know nothing of this particular company) are being drafted in from elsewhere with questionable employment practices that undercut the existing established operators. That then forces the terms down for us, our companies trying to compete.

Not surprisingly, the turkeys don't want to vote for Christmas!
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Old 26th Mar 2018, 10:50
  #265 (permalink)  
 
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Why would Turkey not vote for Christmas. I thought they wanted to join the European Union. Not much hope if they vote to ban Christmas.
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Old 26th Mar 2018, 12:26
  #266 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
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Originally Posted by DC9_10 View Post
As I have stated, Jets Go are not bonded by ABTA/ATOL Take your chances but I'd rather not. They don't come back to you when your asking the question. Bit silly trying to back them up when facts mean facts.
They are a Spanish company so that's not surprising, bit like edreams and others based abroad. It says on their website they are licensed and bonded in Spain and has their licence number on there.

Yeah I guess you are right Alteagod, we've seen it with a lot of the Eastern European locos with their lower pay and conditions entering the market, although im not suggesting that's the case here.
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 03:51
  #267 (permalink)  
 
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By the looks of things, the JetsGoHolidays deal shows that BHD management are simply grasping at straws and will take whatever they can get their hands on.

The issue is that time is running out for BHD management to find new airlines and routes.

Back in 2014, when Brussels Airlines, KLM and Vueling announced they were commencing flights from BHD, BFS handled just 1,478,799 more passengers than BHD. It seemed entirely feasible at the time that BHD would soon break the 3 million mark, and that both airports would end up handling roughly the same amount of passengers. It made sense at the time for KLM et al to operate from BHD.

However, fast forward to 2017, and BFS managed to handle 3,276,706 more passengers than BHD. The gap is continuing to widen; in 2018, BFS will handle roughly 6.3 million passengers (up 450,000). BHD on the other hand will struggle to surpass 2.6 million. By 2019, BFS will be handling 4 million more passengers that BHD, unless BHD management can attract new routes and airlines.

Since 2014, BFS passenger numbers have increased by 1,802,608. BHD passenger numbers on the other hand have increased by just 4,701.

2014; 4,033,944 vs 2,555,145 = 1,478,799
2015; 4,391,307 vs 2,692,713 = 1,698,594
2016; 5,147,546 vs 2,665,139 = 2,482,407
2017; 5,836,552 vs 2,559,846 = 3,276,706
2018; 6,300,000 vs 2,600,000 = 3,700,000
2019; 6,600,000 vs 2,600,000 = 4,000,000

*2018 and 2019 figures are estimates based on the number of scheduled seats for sale, previous load factors, and previous passenger figures. BFS error +/-100,000 pax, BHD error +/-50,000 pax

BHD is being dwarfed by BFS, and this will have a huge impact on the future of BHD.
- New airlines coming to Belfast will likely choose the much larger BFS, which by 2020 could be handling as many as 7 million pax annually. More passengers means more revenue for the airport, which will allow for expansion and improvements to the terminal building, thus making BFS even more attractive to airlines. This will be compounded by the increased urgency to establish improved transport links between Belfast and BFS. BHD on the other hand will likely remain below the 3 million passenger mark.
- If BHD's passenger numbers continue to fall or stagnate, there will be increased pressure to look at the feasibility of the airport, and there will undoubtedly be calls to close the airport and move all operations to BFS.
- BHD management have been unable to persuade new airlines to remain at the airport, thus making it even more difficult for BHD to secure new routes and airlines in the future.

At this stage, Lufthansa Group is probably a lost cause for the airport. The performance of BHD-BRU was to determine the likelihood of further LH Group routes to the airport, and Eurowings are looking at BFS for their potential Belfast operations, having already rejected BHD. It seems highly plausible that if Eurowings start operations from BFS, potential Lufthansa flights to FRA or MUC would operate to BFS as well.

The failure of Vueling's BCN service has hampered plans for Iberia Express to operate BHD-MAD, and Aer Lingus' recent capacity slashes suggests that it is unlikely that BHD will receive good news from from IAG in the foreseeable future. Honestly, once the lock on Aer Lingus' LHR slots expires, I predict they will axe BHD completely from their route network.

I think that BHD management should be focusing their attention on Air France/KLM. As I've mentioned several times before, KLM have said on numerous occasions that they want to operate BHD-AMS x2-3 daily, and that they want to add more destinations (i.e. Paris CDG) from BHD in the medium term.

I would love to ask Ms. Best and her colleagues what's going on with regards to KLM. What confuses me is that in 2016 (the year KLM revealed they wanted a second daily BHD service), KLM had two x1 daily F70/E175 UK routes; AMS-BHD and AMS-INV. Passenger numbers on both routes in 2016 were identical, however INV received a second daily service in 2017, and in 2018 will be operated by the B737. BHD on the other hand has seen no increase in capacity since the route's inception. KLM have said time and time again that yield on AMS-BHD is excellent, so why on earth is nothing happening?

It is baffling that BHD management seem to be doing little to secure the future of what will be the airport's busiest international route in 2018.
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 06:30
  #268 (permalink)  
 
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BHD is being dwarfed by BFS, and this will have a huge impact on the future of BHD.
Only if your premise is that airports must continually expand. London City is a counter-example; after rapid initial expansion it has settled for the past decade around the 4.5 million mark, rising and falling slightly with the economy but showing no ambition to become a mega-airport.

If a business finds a niche and makes a profit why can't it just exist there? Why the constant demand for growth? Belfast City is point-to-point orientated, unlike Heathrow it doesn't depend on a depth of connections for its value. Perhaps it's as big as it's going to get, and maybe that's just fine.

I do agree that KLM expansion seems overdue. But bear in mind that since the started the Belfast City service they have also introduced the Dublin service which is now double-daily and may have drawn away potential for Belfast. In that regard they are to be commended contrary to their fellow Euroairlines who open a Dublin service and consider that sufficient for 'Ireland' as a whole; Wow, Lufthansa, Air France, Iberia, TAP, Scandinavian, Turkish...
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 11:58
  #269 (permalink)  
 
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Eurowings? Has it moved on from the very public 'competition' from last October?
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 12:00
  #270 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
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The answer to the above will probably be no. I think we delude ourselves here, we had all the airlines in the world here last year, and not a peep out of the them!.
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 19:54
  #271 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by El Bunto View Post
Only if your premise is that airports must continually expand. London City is a counter-example; after rapid initial expansion it has settled for the past decade around the 4.5 million mark, rising and falling slightly with the economy but showing no ambition to become a mega-airport.
A couple of points; LCY is not a counter-example. Annual statistics show that LCY has expanded rapidly over the past decade, and has not settled as you suggest. In the past decade, passenger numbers have risen from 2,912,123 in 2007 to 4,330,439 in 2017. I don't know where you get your statistics from, but they certainly aren't from the CAA.

Furthermore, LCY is embarking on an ambitious terminal expansion, with the aim of increasing passenger numbers by another 2 million. LCY of course cannot become the next mega-airport, but that is solely because the airport is heavily constrained by its location. The airport is however showing ambition that it wants to keep expanding until it is no longer possible to do so.

Originally Posted by El Bunto View Post
If a business finds a niche and makes a profit why can't it just exist there? Why the constant demand for growth? Belfast City is point-to-point orientated, unlike Heathrow it doesn't depend on a depth of connections for its value. Perhaps it's as big as it's going to get, and maybe that's just fine.

BHD will undoubtedly always be a niche airport, given that its runway length severely restricts its potential route network to as far as the Mediterranean. However, niche does not mean zero growth.

The problem faced by the airport currently is that BHD is heavily reliant on Flybe. In 2018, 3.3 million seats are being offered from BHD. Of those, 2.3 million are offered by Flybe, and over 900,000 are offered by IAG. If you look at the statistics, the airport's reliance on Flybe is getting worse. Between 2014-2017, BHD passenger numbers increased by 4,701. Flybe carried 221,236 more passengers from BHD in 2017 than in 2014, representing a 15.3% increase. Flybe's BHD market share has therefore increased by 8.7% since 2014.

If you split passenger numbers into three categories; Flybe, IAG, other, the results are as follows;

2014 Market Share;

Flybe: 56.5%
IAG: 41.9%
Other: 1.6%

2017 Market Share;

Flybe: 65.2%
IAG: 32.5%
Other: 2.3%

2018 Estimated Market Share;

Flybe: 69.3%
IAG: 28.2%
Other: 2.5%

* 2018 estimate is based on seats for sale and past load factors


Being a niche airport is not a bad thing, but for the future survival of the airport, BHD management really need to diversify their airline portfolio. In 2014, the airport was served by five airlines. That's the same number as in 2018.

Of course, having one airline taking a majority of the market share isn't necessarily a bad thing, but BHD management should be very worried that their largest tenant is in financial difficulties, and have already announced that total network capacity will be reduced by as much as 20%, so Flybe could slash BHD capacity at any given moment. What is also worrying is that the airport's second largest airline, Aer Lingus has already severely cut both routes and capacity over the last few years, and is likely to continue doing so.

Ideally, the 'other' category of airlines should contain 4-5 airlines, and amount to a 10% market share. However in 2017, only 58,903 passengers did not fly with Flybe or IAG - that's just 1 in 40 passengers. This over-reliance on its largest tenants means that the airport would be in a very dangerous position if either Flybe or Aer Lingus were to axe more services from BHD.


Originally Posted by El Bunto View Post
I do agree that KLM expansion seems overdue. But bear in mind that since the started the Belfast City service they have also introduced the Dublin service which is now double-daily and may have drawn away potential for Belfast.
KLM announced their BHD intentions both before and after they commenced flights to DUB.

Originally Posted by El Bunto View Post
In that regard they are to be commended contrary to their fellow Euroairlines who open a Dublin service and consider that sufficient for 'Ireland' as a whole; Wow, Lufthansa, Air France, Iberia, TAP, Scandinavian, Turkish...
You are aware that the majority of the airlines you've mentioned clearly don't consider a DUB service to be sufficient for the island as a whole, as they operate to either ORK or SNN as well.

Air France: DUB, ORK
Lufthansa: DUB, SNN
Iberia: DUB, ORK
SWISS: DUB, ORK
SAS: DUB, SNN
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 21:24
  #272 (permalink)  
 
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In relation to Eurowings, if A320 as you mention that Lufthansa used BHD BRU as the experiment of a Belfast route, why now would Eurowings be actively considering BFS Airport? Surlely for a German airline, who will attract mainly German originating pax, the question will be would a Belfast service work, the Brussels airlines experiment didn't prove that one airport suits better over the other. Eurowings would not be concerned by opening hours, runway length etc.so nothing had proven or disproven for them that BFS or BHD is better..


I am also curious as to what the 'lock on Aer Lingus slots is about? My sources tell me that Aer Lingus is performing extremely well on LHR...'

BHD I'd agree is trailing behind BFS, but the pax levels are good considering that Europe's 3 big low cost airlines are big up the road. The pax volume is typically at a sustainable level for BHD, the biggest issue is whether given competitive pressures can the airport charge sustainable rates to its operating airlines....
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Old 27th Mar 2018, 21:26
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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IAG LHR slot 5 year commitment excludes BHD slots.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 15:54
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EI-BUD View Post
In relation to Eurowings, if A320 as you mention that Lufthansa used BHD BRU as the experiment of a Belfast route, why now would Eurowings be actively considering BFS Airport? Surlely for a German airline, who will attract mainly German originating pax, the question will be would a Belfast service work, the Brussels airlines experiment didn't prove that one airport suits better over the other. Eurowings would not be concerned by opening hours, runway length etc.so nothing had proven or disproven for them that BFS or BHD is better.
The Brussels Airlines experiment wasn’t to prove that one airport suits better over the other, it was to prove whether or not Belfast would be able to sustain a Lufthansa Group service. LH Group’s BRU service failed, hence the mooted Lufthansa route to FRA and SWISS route to ZRH never came into fruition.

With regards to Eurowings, my source tells me that BFS is the only airport on the cards for a potential Belfast route, and last years ‘Choose Our Next Route’ competition mentioned BFS by name, and was publicly supported by BFS management.

Originally Posted by EI-BUD View Post
I am also curious as to what the 'lock on Aer Lingus slots is about? My sources tell me that Aer Lingus is performing extremely well on LHR...'
When IAG made their offer for Aer Lingus, they made a commitment that Aer Lingus slots would be ‘locked’ for a period of five years, meaning the slots had to be used for Aer Lingus services between LHR and Ireland. This was to ensure that Aer Lingus didn’t sell their LHR slots to British Airways, to be used for long haul expansion.

However, according to EI-A330-300 in their post above, BHD was not included in this agreement.

That doesn’t mean that my suspicions aren’t correct though - Aer Lingus could still just be holding onto the slots until BA needs them.

You mention that your sources say that Aer Lingus is performing well on its BHD-LHR route. That may be so, but what is good for Aer Lingus may not be good for IAG as a whole. Aer Lingus’ BHD-LHR flights carry flight numbers for several Star Alliance carriers. Surely this is bad for business for IAG, as Aer Lingus are essentially assisting the likes of Air Canada and United Airlines on services rivalling BA from LHR. It would make a lot more sense to axe Aer Lingus’ LHR service completely, and use the slots for a) 1-2 daily BA services to BHD, and b) 1-2 daily BA long haul services.

Originally Posted by EI-BUD View Post
BHD I'd agree is trailing behind BFS, but the pax levels are good considering that Europe's 3 big low cost airlines are big up the road. The pax volume is typically at a sustainable level for BHD, the biggest issue is whether given competitive pressures can the airport charge sustainable rates to its operating airlines….

Between 1998-2008, passenger numbers doubled to 2,570,742, but since then passenger numbers have remained constant. Between 2008-2017, BHD’s average passenger figure was 2,559,093, which is almost identical to both the 2008 and 2017 figures. Stagnation has already lasted a decade at BHD, and will continue unless management can attract new routes and airlines.

The demographics of passengers at BHD has shifted substantially over the past few years. In 2014, just over half of passengers flew with Flybe. In 2018, that number is expected to exceed two thirds. Conversely, IAG’s market share has crumbled from 42% in 2014, to just 30% of passengers expected to fly with Aer Lingus or British Airways in 2018.

One of the key issues facing the airport is that their two largest airlines are either in financial difficulties (Flybe) or seem uninterested in the Belfast market (Aer Lingus). What happens if Flybe’s next round of capacity cuts hit hard on BHD, or if Aer Lingus axe their remaining sun routes? When BHD lost Ryanair and bmi baby, the airport had Flybe and Aer Lingus to fall back on and replace the lost capacity. BHD no longer has such a safety net.

The ideal solution would be if a new airline established a base at the airport, as this would give the airport some breathing room if Flybe or Aer Lingus were to cut capacity. However, the prospect of this is unlikely, why is why BHD needs to diversify its airline portfolio. By doing so, it gives the airport a passenger safety net, meaning that the airport can still make a profit, even if Flybe were to cut 20% of their capacity from BHD.

However, the time available for BHD management to attract these new routes and airlines is getting smaller. the rapid increase in passenger figures from BFS over the past few years has given BFS a competitive advantage over BHD, and here’s why;

Since 2014, BFS have increased their passenger numbers by 1,802,608, meaning the airport is receiving a lot more revenue than it did four years ago. Compared to 2014, BFS is now more able to invest in their terminal facilities, and to spend more money on advertising campaigns. Furthermore, an increase in aircraft movements means that BFS has greater flexibility in setting their airport fees.

In contrast, BHD passenger numbers have stagnated, with aircraft movements falling. This means that BHD have less money available to make terminal improvements, and are unable to reduce airport fees without eating into their profits.

As BFS continues to grow, and if BHD continues to stagnate, then the gap between the two airports will keep on growing, with BFS being able to invest more and more money in their passenger facilities. Eventually, there will come a time when airlines - including those currently operating from BHD - will find BFS to be the more attractive airport, despite its distance from Belfast relative to BHD.

The Northern Ireland market is growing, and is expected to continue growing for the foreseeable future. Those such as El Bunto can suggest that there is no need to continue growing BHD because it is a ‘niche’ and can make a profit in its current guise. That’s all well and good, but passenger numbers from Belfast will grow, so if BHD doesn’t expand, ultimately all of the growth will go to BFS.

Eventually there will come a time when the difference in passenger numbers between BFS and BHD is so great that - despite having its own following - there will be calls for the airport to be closed. BHD doesn’t provide a unique service that makes it stand out from BFS. There would be no difference in passenger numbers or the service provided if BHD’s entire operations were shifted to BFS. After all, the vast majority of routes operated from BHD have been, or still are, operated from BFS as well, and Flybe is the only airline that hasn’t operated from BFS at one time or another.

By looking at the markets shares of both BFS and BHD since 2014, it is already evident that BHD are losing ground at a rapid rate. BHD’s market share has already fallen from 38.8% to 30.5%, and is only expected to get worse.


2014: 6,589,089 = BFS 61.2%, BHD 38.8%
2015: 7,084,020 = BFS 62.0%, BHD 38.0%
2016: 7,812,685 = BFS 65.9%, BHD 34.1%
2017: 8,396,398 = BFS 69.5%, BHD 30.5%

If we assume BFS continues to grow at an average rate of 5% (as it has done 1997-2017), and that BHD passenger numbers continue to stagnate at 2.6m, then here are the estimated market shares 2018-24;

2018: 8,728,380 = BFS 70.2%, BHD 29.8%
2019: 9,034,799 = BFS 71.2%, BHD 28.8%
2020: 9,356,539 = BFS 72.2%, BHD 27.8%
2021: 9,694,365 = BFS 73.2%, BHD 26.2%
2022: 10,049,083 = BFS 74.1%, BHD 25.9%
2023: 10,421,538 = BFS 75.1%, BHD 24.9%
2024: 10,812,615 = BFS 76.0%, BHD 24.0%

Between 2014-24, BHD’s market share is expected to fall by a whopping 15%. By 2024, fewer than a quarter of Belfast’s passengers will fly from BHD.

Hence, it is essential that BHD does grow its passenger numbers. Continuing to stagnate will ultimately lead to the closure of the airport. Various constraints mean that BHD is never going to become Belfast’s largest airport, but it needs to keep up with BFS for as long as possible, and attracting new routes and airlines is the key to the survival of the airport.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 17:50
  #275 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
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My youngest brother works at Shorts/Bombardier at the Belfast plant. My uncle's also did however hence retired. Flybe used to be the preferred airline for travel, however no longer. The policy now is the cheapest available and that's what they have to book. Mr Ambrose was moved from the factory to the airport many years ago. Him and Best lied to the environmental committee concerning noise and both were rebuffed. Ambrose also lied about Vueling loads claiming 60 per cent and rising, when in truth it was lower forties. As my uncle's have always said " Ambrose, you can't believe a word that comes out of that man's mouth". Him and Katy, otherwise known as Laurel and Hardy. I'd rather call them Hinge and Bracket ha.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 17:53
  #276 (permalink)  
 
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A320 - all valid points which are hard to disagree with, however a rather negative approach to Harbour all told.

The only way that Harbour can turn its stagnation period around is by attracting new business, I think that is fairly obvious. The question is why has this continued for so long and what is being done to address it? I have stated before, any management team is judged on its track record. The current management team are simply not producing the goods, fancy management titles and salary packages are all well and good but its results that count!

I travelled through Harbour last week in the afternoon, the upstairs waiting area was packed to capacity at that stage. There's obviously work going on to expand this area as previously noted on this thread so somebody somewhere must be looking ahead and planning for growth! Whether this is purely speculative or whether something is planned remains to be seen.

Its a real pity that Harbour didn't pursue the runway extension that Aldergrove fought so hard against some years ago. Its patently obvious why Aldergrove protested, they knew a longer runway at Harbour would have made the attracting of new airlines so much easier. But as always when Aldergrove protest and fight against Harbour there is simply no fight back of any description. This comes full circle to the current management team not being up to standard when it comes to both protecting and growing their own business, sometimes it is necessary to fight back!
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 19:23
  #277 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
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I sort of miss the fake residents group knocking on my door with tales of woe. Pointing at Orange planes saying they were landing at the city.
But that extension to the lounge is not being built for nothing
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 20:08
  #278 (permalink)  
 
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And your point being Startled. Is it for Eastern going twice daily J41 and Carlisle.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 20:32
  #279 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DC9_10 View Post
And your point being Startled. Is it for Eastern going twice daily J41 and Carlisle.
You don't invest 15m for nothing.
And it's Grapefruit to you 10.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 21:04
  #280 (permalink)  
 
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So who are these new airlines that could start a new base and routes? Have you considered the continuing consolidation of airlines? Some names please of airlines that could start a base that would make a difference?
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