Southend-2
The Stobart mood music recently has certainly suggested that the acquisition of a European carrier might be on the cards and Flybe would be an obvious candidate to at least look at.
DC3 Dave
The easyJet SEN-MLA price certainly hasn't changed in the past four days for the first week in August and although I didn't note down the MLA-SEN prices they look basically unchanged to me.
DC3 Dave
The easyJet SEN-MLA price certainly hasn't changed in the past four days for the first week in August and although I didn't note down the MLA-SEN prices they look basically unchanged to me.
Last edited by Expressflight; 22nd Feb 2018 at 15:28. Reason: clarification of airline in question
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This won't happen. By operating into LCY, Flybe allows business passengers to arrive in the centre of London in time for 09:00 meetings, and depart after work finishes in the evening. SEN doesn't allow for this given its distance from the city centre, and Flybe would lose thousands of valuable business travellers who are willing to pay inflated prices.
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It would allow them to explore the opportunities for services from SEN that could otherwise be seen to compete with LCY services, to find out for themselves how different the markets are (eg places like Belfast and Edinburgh).
I'd suggest though that what would happen first and foremost would be a very steep decline in the chances of London airports other than LCY and SEN seeing flyBe services!
I'd suggest though that what would happen first and foremost would be a very steep decline in the chances of London airports other than LCY and SEN seeing flyBe services!
Last edited by 01475; 22nd Feb 2018 at 18:54.
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As others have said and I said myself only a week or so ago, the LCY domestic network will not move over and I don’t think even Stobart would attempt it.
There are one or two other more immediate opportunities though. The LCY-DUS route is in competition with BA and doesn’t necessarily need to be at LCY. Since STN lost the route a couple of years back, there is no link to DUS from East Anglia. A lot of demand on that route was heading outside London.
Another one is NQY - the LGW route must carry 250k or more annually. If transfer pax don’t make a significant portion of that it could be a no-brainer to switch it. At the very least the STN route would come back.
LCY-RNS can be binned.
I actually think a takeover would be more about Stobart becoming a significant aviation player than about grabbing a few extra pax for SEN. Apart from prohibiting routes to EDI, if there’s anywhere Stobart wanted to go to from SEN there’s not much stopping them already.
Interesting times.
There are one or two other more immediate opportunities though. The LCY-DUS route is in competition with BA and doesn’t necessarily need to be at LCY. Since STN lost the route a couple of years back, there is no link to DUS from East Anglia. A lot of demand on that route was heading outside London.
Another one is NQY - the LGW route must carry 250k or more annually. If transfer pax don’t make a significant portion of that it could be a no-brainer to switch it. At the very least the STN route would come back.
LCY-RNS can be binned.
I actually think a takeover would be more about Stobart becoming a significant aviation player than about grabbing a few extra pax for SEN. Apart from prohibiting routes to EDI, if there’s anywhere Stobart wanted to go to from SEN there’s not much stopping them already.
Interesting times.
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The LGWNQY route is a PSO route specifically for LGW. It won't be switched. It could be added to but there won't be any switching. One thing that seems to be missed here is that there is no way that the Stobart management team is of the size or quality needed to cope with the addition of 70-odd a/c from Flybe. It may be that it's the DUB based staff who should be looking for property in the EXT area and not the other way round as the maintenance business is going nowhere and all the airline operations are based in the maintenance hangars at EXT.
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Flybe : not long to wait to find out...
The Board of Stobart Group notes the movement in the share price of Flybe and press speculation as to a potential takeover of Flybe Group Plc by Stobart Group.
Stobart Group and Flybe have a range of shared interests arising from Stobart Group's ownership of London Southend Airport and its aircraft leasing company and the growing franchise arrangements between the two groups' airlines.
As previously disclosed in October 2017, we have been reviewing alternative structures for our airline and leasing business that can play an important part in the consolidation of the regional airline sector.
A number of potential structures have been considered including taking a non-controlling interest in a vehicle to acquire 100% of Flybe likely to be in cash. It is not possible to say, at this stage, whether a transaction will take place, whether a firm proposal will be made or, if it is, the form a transaction to combine the airlines might take.
A further announcement will be made in due course.
In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Stobart Group is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 22nd March 2018, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Flybe in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
Stobart Group and Flybe have a range of shared interests arising from Stobart Group's ownership of London Southend Airport and its aircraft leasing company and the growing franchise arrangements between the two groups' airlines.
As previously disclosed in October 2017, we have been reviewing alternative structures for our airline and leasing business that can play an important part in the consolidation of the regional airline sector.
A number of potential structures have been considered including taking a non-controlling interest in a vehicle to acquire 100% of Flybe likely to be in cash. It is not possible to say, at this stage, whether a transaction will take place, whether a firm proposal will be made or, if it is, the form a transaction to combine the airlines might take.
A further announcement will be made in due course.
In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Stobart Group is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 22nd March 2018, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Flybe in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
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Absolutely right. Though I think we can say than SEN would not be disadvantaged by this move if it happens.
Last edited by DC3 Dave; 23rd Feb 2018 at 06:40.
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flyBe isn’t particularly profitable and has a huge Brexit risk profile, in the UK market. Stobart isn’t much better, it’s main market being U.K.-IRL services for Aer Lingus and AerArann nearly went broke flying these routes without the EI brand. I’m not convinced a Stobart takeover of flyBe is all that sensible, but Stobart are very keen to merge RE with someone. Presumably to float at some point.
On a positive note, it would potentially be easier for the Stobart group to re-capatilise flyBe than for an independent flyBe. Which might be useful if Stobart fancy some more jets for SEN and to replace/refinance the E-Jet fleet, which are apparently on poor terms.
All of that said, if this is just to grow SEN, what’s to stop Stobart leasing more 195s or used A319s and paining them purple? There must be more to it than SEN alone?
On a positive note, it would potentially be easier for the Stobart group to re-capatilise flyBe than for an independent flyBe. Which might be useful if Stobart fancy some more jets for SEN and to replace/refinance the E-Jet fleet, which are apparently on poor terms.
All of that said, if this is just to grow SEN, what’s to stop Stobart leasing more 195s or used A319s and paining them purple? There must be more to it than SEN alone?
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It probably should be in all three although it is a bit annoying to open up three forums to read repetitive discussions. It certainly is of interest to the SEN locals because they are hoping it will lead to extra flights and passengers. We will know more, hopefully, after March 22nd.
Though I think we can say than SEN would not be disadvantaged by this move if it happens.
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If the takeover materialises and Stobart get their new toy, SEN will be the last thing on their minds with regards to expanding the route network from the airport. They will be taking on a disfunctioning airline that is in need of some resuscitation and direction before they even consider SEN. Priority will be continuing to reduce capacity and loss making routes along with fleet control ie the Q400 replacement program and what to do with the E95's and their possible replacement (of which I don't think is necessary at present although they might see this as an opportunity to purchase further E95's coming off lease and utilise for their sun routes). SEN has only this year started the Flybe franchise with 15 routes and this will be more than sufficient in the short/mid term to gauge its success before any additional routes are taken on board. Talk on here about transferring the LCY operation to SEN i think is ridiculous as this is a niche market that Flybe have already got their claws in to and surely Stobart will want to not only keep this but try to maximise on!
One aspect of the purported takeover which doesn’t really seem to have been noticed or commented on is that Stobart Group are not seeking a controlling interest in FlyBe. Ergo, they won’t be able to do just what they like with it.
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NQY-LGW carries large numbers of EK, BA and VS codeshare connecting passengers. I can’t see this service moving LGW-SEN.
However the BE STN-NQY would be very easy to move to SEN and to reinstate to daily
However the BE STN-NQY would be very easy to move to SEN and to reinstate to daily
I certainly don't think that SEN would be put on the back burner should this take-over come about. Stobart will be very keen to keep growing pax numbers there in order to substantiate some of the optimistic claims that they have made in that regard. The last thing they would want is shareholders getting windy because of a perception that the current flagship operation is suffering as a result of the turnover.
I don't think they would reduce activity at LCY to any great extent but they might well start routes from SEN to EDI and BHD (currently blocked by Flybe) and likely transfer the STN-NQY to SEN, although probably not until 2019.
I don't think they would reduce activity at LCY to any great extent but they might well start routes from SEN to EDI and BHD (currently blocked by Flybe) and likely transfer the STN-NQY to SEN, although probably not until 2019.
Expressflight - you probably know better than the rest of us the corporate capabilities of Stobart, but there can be a difference between what you want to do and what you can do.