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Southend-2

Old 29th May 2019, 09:39
  #3061 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
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In the final results Warwick Brady concluded by making a bold prediction.......

Stobart Group now intends to invest in developing a 10m+ passenger airport and the infrastructure required to maintain a supply chain to deliver 2m tonnes per annum of biomass fuel. The Group will also invest in core IT and central services, including our people while retaining an appropriate Group cost base. The majority of our investment will be focused on London Southend Airport and will be partly funded by the receipt of over £50m raised through the issuance of an exchangeable bond secured over our shares in Eddie Stobart Logistics plc, further asset sales and cash generated from operating businesses.

Well, I guess it's good that the airport will receive more investment. Going to need some serious development to realise Mr Brady's vision. Or is he talking biomass?
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Old 29th May 2019, 10:13
  #3062 (permalink)  
 
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All very well BUT...

Stobart Group `surge` to £58m loss.Burning through shareholder cash faster than ever & still selling assets it appears.

The SEN window dressing has not masked most of the bad financial headlines unfortunately.
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Old 29th May 2019, 10:28
  #3063 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by southside bobby View Post
All very well BUT...
Stobart Group `surge` to £58m loss.Burning through shareholder cash faster than ever & still selling assets it appears.
The SEN window dressing has not masked most of the bad financial headlines unfortunately.
That must be why the share price is up 10% this morning.
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Old 29th May 2019, 10:45
  #3064 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by southside bobby View Post
All very well BUT...

Stobart Group `surge` to £58m loss.Burning through shareholder cash faster than ever & still selling assets it appears.

The SEN window dressing has not masked most of the bad financial headlines unfortunately.
Good ol' SSB...meanwhile back at STN!!
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Old 29th May 2019, 11:09
  #3065 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
That must be why the share price is up 10% this morning.
Pretty awful results again and more assets sold to support the investment in the airport(s). Now that the Eddie Stobart shares have been mortgaged there is little left to support any further investment after the payment of dividends is catered for. Dividend payments are down 50%. Share price has been on the slide since the pre-close statement in March where the future dividend was cut again to 6p per annum (it was 18p in 2018, cut to 9p in 2019 all of which was funded by asset sales).

Share price movement today is the accumulation of trades coming through in the closed period - essentially bets. For a better picture look at the share price on Friday, one week after last Friday when shares closed at 107p, down from 225p one year ago.

How can the existing infrastructure support 5m pax let alone the target of 10m pax? Security and terminal is struggling with the new pax for the Ryanair flights. The airport will need remote stands on the North side and possible a remote terminal on the North side too. A parallel taxiway would also be required to support peak time aircraft movements. These can all be achieved at a price but what about car parking? The estate is not large enough to create additional parking unless a multi-storey facility can be included without impinging on the runway clearances and the radar coverage.

Exciting times ahead if Stobart can finish the infrastructure improvements before the cash runs out. Given the burn rate to date I can see the cash running out first.
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Old 29th May 2019, 17:31
  #3066 (permalink)  
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10million....? An annual total of 5 million pax seems the maximum possible to me, but that assumes major new terminal developments. Maybe they plan to take over the retail park and bulldoze it.....?
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Old 29th May 2019, 20:21
  #3067 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by asdf1234 View Post
Pretty awful results again and more assets sold to support the investment in the airport(s). Now that the Eddie Stobart shares have been mortgaged there is little left to support any further investment after the payment of dividends is catered for. Dividend payments are down 50%. Share price has been on the slide since the pre-close statement in March where the future dividend was cut again to 6p per annum (it was 18p in 2018, cut to 9p in 2019 all of which was funded by asset sales).

Share price movement today is the accumulation of trades coming through in the closed period - essentially bets. For a better picture look at the share price on Friday, one week after last Friday when shares closed at 107p, down from 225p one year ago.

How can the existing infrastructure support 5m pax let alone the target of 10m pax? Security and terminal is struggling with the new pax for the Ryanair flights. The airport will need remote stands on the North side and possible a remote terminal on the North side too. A parallel taxiway would also be required to support peak time aircraft movements. These can all be achieved at a price but what about car parking? The estate is not large enough to create additional parking unless a multi-storey facility can be included without impinging on the runway clearances and the radar coverage.

Exciting times ahead if Stobart can finish the infrastructure improvements before the cash runs out. Given the burn rate to date I can see the cash running out first.
They'll do a round of presentations to investors overseas I reckon, and will drum up investment capital in another round.
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Old 29th May 2019, 20:23
  #3068 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barling Magna View Post
10million....? An annual total of 5 million pax seems the maximum possible to me, but that assumes major new terminal developments. Maybe they plan to take over the retail park and bulldoze it.....?
Yes i agree 10 million pax is just more Stobart spin and would not be achievable as the infrastructure and space is just not there to attain that amount of capacity, however i have to say that Stobart have done a fantastic job over the last 10 years in turning a dying airport with just one flight a week, summer only Jersey service into what it is today. There were a lot of doubters that never thought that Easyjet would ever start a base here and now we have a Ryanair base as well, which would have been a pipe dream even a year or so ago, plus now other airlines such as Flybe/Stobart Air, Air Malta, Loganair and Blue Islands operating. Wonder who will be next?.
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Old 29th May 2019, 22:45
  #3069 (permalink)  
 
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Most of those 10 million would arrive by road. Donít think the local road network would cope.
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Old 29th May 2019, 22:47
  #3070 (permalink)  
 
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I see Warwick Brady says that the recent runway improvements allow for bigger aircraft such as the A321. Could the A321 operate commercially from SEN?
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Old 30th May 2019, 00:30
  #3071 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aurigny72 View Post
=centerWonder who will be next?.
FlyOne! Although I do wonder how they will be able to compete at just once weekly (twice over summer holidays) against Wizz and Air Moldova
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Old 30th May 2019, 00:50
  #3072 (permalink)  
 
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Southend has bitten off a lot in terms of annual growth rate with Ryanair basing aircraft at SEN, and experiencing a bit of indigestion (eg security screening queues). Perhaps time to focus on ironing out all the kinks in standard daily operations.

Flights that are full in July/August with small children and people who fly just once a year will exert a greater strain than those in May. Other airlines may be watching to see how SEN performs in early August to verify operational robustness before any kind of new route announcement
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Old 30th May 2019, 00:56
  #3073 (permalink)  
 
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Other airlines will being looking at loads and pounds per customer .. and of course if they can start anything that Ryanair or easyJet won’t nick 6 months after start up.
‘Check in and security are all stobarts problem as they pretty much own all of it. As mentioned often on here, no one is buying pints of beer, coffee, books n papers, or sweets and sandwiches at inflated airport prices if they are stuck in a Q
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Old 30th May 2019, 07:47
  #3074 (permalink)  
 
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So why has SEN been caught out? Stobart will know the airports hourly capacity and how to increase it. If it is staffing levels and training unlike other airports they control everything so the buck stops with them so they should have had that fixed before the first Ryanair passenger arrived.

If it is physical terminal constraints that will be harder to fix in the short term but in the meantime the big selling point for Southend will soon be forgotten by the travelling public.

As for a 10 million passenger Southend I think that would be hard to swallow for the council and would be rejected. The local council at Stansted voted in favour of that airports latest expansion and then got voted out of power by independent residents who stood for election in protest.



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Old 30th May 2019, 08:08
  #3075 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
FlyOne! Although I do wonder how they will be able to compete at just once weekly (twice over summer holidays) against Wizz and Air Moldova
Interestingly you can through book SEN to Moscow (VKO) on FlyOne, via Chisinau (KIV) of course.
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Old 30th May 2019, 08:29
  #3076 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tws123 View Post
I see Warwick Brady says that the recent runway improvements allow for bigger aircraft such as the A321. Could the A321 operate commercially from SEN?
On YouTube you will find Glyn Jones claiming that the work will allow A321 operations. In the video he mentions Wizz, so perhaps the possibility of that airline adding SEN still exists.



Last edited by DC3 Dave; 30th May 2019 at 09:53.
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Old 30th May 2019, 09:31
  #3077 (permalink)  
 
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i think the retail park is gonna get it at some stage. I was looking to see if you have access from aviation way but it would have to go under the runway. Too expensive
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Old 30th May 2019, 13:14
  #3078 (permalink)  
 
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A cautionary tale has been posted earlier regarding the planning permission for the next phase of development at STN & therefore prospects for SEN.

Luckily permission for STN was granted before the local elections with indeed then a major change in Councillor line up with most/all against the further development however it was finally accepted & stated permission cannot be retrospectively revoked after much legal consultation conducted over that w/end.

So the big dollar question foremost for SEN/here would be what is the current max permitted passenger thru put ? & how much greater in percentage terms would 10 or even 15m pax per year equate to, then perhaps take the reality check/view regarding the unsuitability of the site in every aspect & ask if a public enquiry would approve such an expansion & which political hand would be prepared to sign it off.

All politics...European,Governmental & local are becoming daily more vocal against aviation expansion.

The one hope for aviation in the UK would be "BJ" & then all the London Airport`s can be moved out to sea which should have happened 40/50 years ago TBH.
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Old 30th May 2019, 13:26
  #3079 (permalink)  
 
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Most of the Southend conurbation are in favour of the airport and certainly any current expansion.
‘It just doesn’t affect most people in the area and is hugely popular come holiday time.
‘Maybe the golf course will get ripped up,after the retail park
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Old 30th May 2019, 13:58
  #3080 (permalink)  
 
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Admire the optimism...

Anyways what is the current max permitted passenger capacity at the mo?
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