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Brexit impact on UK Aviation

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Brexit impact on UK Aviation

Old 27th Jun 2016, 15:34
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IATA are having problems seeing an upside, and that is even before we get into having the CAA draft and implement new regs for aircrew licensing / airfield ops/ engineer licensing / aircraft production / ops and all the other stuff currently directed by EASA -

http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documen..._of_brexit.pdf
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 17:01
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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IATA are having problems seeing an upside
Well there really is a silver lining to every cloud!

IATA having problems, I can't think of better news to end the day.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 17:41
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EasyJet shares might be down, but its the strikes, terrorist attacks and operational problems which have caused the profit warning and have been brewing for a while - the EU pull out though is only going to make things worse.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 19:10
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... and of course a reduction in the value of the makes those euros EZY earns worth more of the currency in which they account, and in which their shares are traded.

This is, however, short-term volatility which will settle down fairly quickly.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 21:18
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If the UK really does leave the EU, I would not estimate what an enormous task lies ahead for Government and business.

The process will take several years and cost both business and Government tens of billions of pounds.

The Government needs to review all of our laws and decide which European laws that apply to the UK need to be replaced by UK legislation. The Civil Service at it stands simply does not have the resource to do this and the process of passing new laws will choke up the UK parliament.

UK businesses will have to review everything, staffing, contracts with suppliers and customers, regulations, supply chains, IT systems etc.

I would not be surprised if easyJet is looking at splitting its UK and European hubs into a two separate airlines and adopting an IAG type structure.
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Old 28th Jun 2016, 21:42
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Old 28th Jun 2016, 23:00
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As regards Open skies, that will be on the table, along with access to the EEC free trade market. Your status as a net importer will stand to you here, but full access to the free trade market would require unrestricted movement of EU citizens into the UK a la Norway/Iceland/Switzerland....which was one of the big pro leave side's bug bears. Open skies will also feature in those negotiations as well as God knows how many other things.

EZY have far more to lose here than RYR, as the portion of EZY's business threatened is far larger.

That EU rule about non-EU companies not being allowed own more than 49% of EU airlines will be gone, so DAL can swallow up VIR. The unmentionable airline and QTR might come sniffing around some carriers too.....BA being owned by a Spanish company won't be affected by that obviously.

But I agree that cool heads need to prevail here. An awful lot of jobs in the UK and across Europe are at risk, hundreds of thousands at a minimum.

Last edited by Una Due Tfc; 29th Jun 2016 at 11:17.
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Old 28th Jun 2016, 23:32
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And Norwegian will be badly affected by this ex UK. Even if they get approval for the Irish subsidiary, they won't have access to Open Skies II, as that's a US-EU agreement, which Norway, despite being in the single market doesn't have access to, hence the need for the Irish subsidiary in the first place, so that mooted long haul base at MAN.....
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 00:16
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As regards Open skies, that will be on the table, along with access to the EEC free trade market. Your status as a net importer will stand to you here, but full access to the free trade market would require unrestricted movement of EU citizens into the UK a la Norway/Iceland/Switzerland....which was one of the big pro leave side's bug bears. Open skies will also feature in those negotiations as well as God knows how many other things.
But not EFTA member Liechtenstein.



That EU rule about non-EU companies not being allowed own more than 49% of EU airlines will be gone, so DAL can swallow up VIR.
Who knows, the UK may have its own arrangements. As a UK carrier can't "swallow up" a US carrier, it's doubtful that the reverse will be allowed. These things are usually reciprocal.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 00:59
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Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank View Post
But not EFTA member Liechtenstein.
There are more companies registered in Liechtenstein than there are passport holders, that's a different kettle of fish altogether.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 07:42
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We don't need access to the Single Market, because that's where the bureaucracy comes from that stifles our economy, and where the Free Movement of People is a requirement. What we need, and what we will get, is tariff-free access.
From an aviation perspective, we will seek to remain in the Single European Sky, which includes the likes of Norway, Israel and Morocco.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 08:06
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Brexit

Originally Posted by LGS6753 View Post
We don't need access to the Single Market, because that's where the bureaucracy comes from that stifles our economy, and where the Free Movement of People is a requirement. What we need, and what we will get, is tariff-free access.
From an aviation perspective, we will seek to remain in the Single European Sky, which includes the likes of Norway, Israel and Morocco.
Please let's not get into an In / Out argument in this Forum, there are plenty of opportunities to put your thoughts elsewhere.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 08:28
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VLM's AOC is for sale on the cheap I reckon...
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 13:54
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nd Norwegian will be badly affected by this ex UK. Even if they get approval for the Irish subsidiary, they won't have access to Open Skies II, as that's a US-EU agreement, which Norway, despite being in the single market doesn't have access to, hence the need for the Irish subsidiary in the first place, so that mooted long haul base at MAN....
Norway and Iceland are part of Open Skies II, as of the amendment from 21 July 2011. The real question is will the UK still be included, without further amendments, as of the date they exit the EU. The UK is individually named, but so named as a member of the EU. If the UK were deemed not be be a party then there would be huge issues. Further, if as a 5th party it were not deemed part of the EU side there might be questions as to the citizenship of BA, which could be considered Spanish.

Obviously no-one wants that to happen so it should be fairly straightforward to amend the agreement. However, that requires civil servants to work on it. We don't have enough as it stands.


...nah all it needs is a bottle of Tipex, delete "EASA", write in "UK", even the CAA can do that (well ok with a bit of supervision)

Seriously though I'm tending to think the fat lady has not sung on Brexit yet (ok that's no way to talk about Angela), but having obtained a clear mandate to leave puts the UK in a real bargaining position in any re-negotiation, once all the bluster and posturing has burnt itself out and Jean-Claude and his bunch of muppets have been sidelined.
The CAA isn't really geared up to take over all of the rule making aspects that have been handed off to EASA. Obviously it can be done in the future, but developing the human resource takes time. Further companies like RR are not going to want to move away from the EASA model, which is highly harmonised with the FAA as that significantly increases their costs. If the UK abandoned EASA/harmonisation then RR might move their primary certification to Germany or Indianapolis.

Also, you can't really sideline Jean-Claude as the EC has a say in the adoption of the separation agreements. Yes the individual countries make the decision, but he controls the discussions. It remains to be seen what level of negotiating power the UK will have. However, my impression from the state of the civil service is we don't currently have the expertise.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 14:36
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Ryanair: 'To focus growth on European Union' - BBC News

Ryanair will not deploy new aircraft on routes to and from the UK next year, following the Brexit vote, and will instead focus on the European Union.

The Irish low-cost airline, will "pivot all of our growth into the European Union," chief executive Michael O'Leary told the Wall Street Journal.

Ryanair carries more than 100 million passengers a year and UK routes account for 40 million of those travellers.

Ryanair has its largest hub at London's Stansted Airport.

The airline's shares have fallen more than 23% since the United Kingdom voted on Thursday to leave the European Union.

Mr O'Leary, one of the most vocal business leaders campaigning in favour of continued EU membership, had repeatedly warned he would cut investment in Britain if it voted to leave.

He said the airline's overall growth targets remained unchanged.
Mr O'Leary said he expected three or four months of "considerable uncertainty" due to the British vote, but forecast a limited impact on near-term bookings to and from Britain.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 19:14
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That's Ryanair spotting an opportunity for free publicity, and the BBC spreading doom and gloom.
I will be astonished if this new Ryanair "policy" lasts beyond the spring.
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Old 29th Jun 2016, 21:34
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He did an interivew on sky:
Airline To Shift Investment And May Consider Profit Warning
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Old 30th Jun 2016, 06:45
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Originally Posted by LGS6753 View Post
That's Ryanair spotting an opportunity for free publicity, and the BBC spreading doom and gloom.
I will be astonished if this new Ryanair "policy" lasts beyond the spring.
Sorry, that is a business reconsidering it's positioning following a sudden, and unexpected change to circumstances within it's operating area.

It isn't the first, and won't be the last.

If things pan out in a sensible way, from a business point of view, the surely these sorts of decisions will be amended - perhaps even by the spring. If they don't, what happened last weekend on the financial and stock markets will seem like a side show.
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Old 30th Jun 2016, 08:10
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The IATA view

A comprehensive analysis worth the read..
http://ht.ly/lhlF301ByMZ

FF
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