Brexit and the 5th?

[xtypeman]

Lets get real if we go Brexit route a big wall will come down. Yes we will negotiate but it will take A LONG LONG time before anything happens as it will be us against the rest of the EU. Norway Iceland and Switzerland have there deals but they had never been in the EU to start with so we cannot use them as examples of what will happen. As to what will happen airline wise. I bet Easy are checking out any possible EU AOC's just in case. Maybe a tie up with Air Berlin. BA has access to an EU AOC already. Ryan air is already a non uk aoc holder and is more interested in Eastern Europe than UK domestic. There are a lot of unknowns with Brexit. We may not like what we have but we need to make the best of a bad lot.

[Global_Global]

Look there are two options:
A) the UK stays in and is part of the negotiations to improve the EU and clean up area's that need improvement
B) the UK leaves and all the EU countries will do their utmost to:
-get the companies to move their capitols (Frankfurt and Paris will try to get the financials)
-There is NO incentive to be nice to England
-Wales as net recipient of funds from the EU will be worse off
-Northern Ireland might be better off joining the southern part of the island
-Devolution for the Scots will make even more sense and they WILL be welcome

Let's face it why would we (says a true European!) be accommodating if you decide to go? If you go there is no need to extent all the treaties but we would wish you well on your island

PS without all the Polish plumbers, the EU people working in the hotels and the EU people working in agriculture it will be interesting to see who are the people really working in England....

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Global_Global ...

Far too pessimistic. There is one key factor to bear in mind in all this: the EU bloc exports more to the UK than we export to them. The trade balance is very much in their favour. Given that the UK is displaying little or no inclination to introduce tariff barriers or initiate a trade war, why should we suppose that the EU bloc would themselves act to jeopardise their already favourable position? Apart from which, the UK public appear favourably disposed towards the Single European Market (including many pro-BREXIT folks) ... other issues / concerns are driving the debate.

I expect a continuing torrent of scaremongering as referendum day approaches, but little change in trading agreements thereafter. Our based carriers can relax and chill!

[paully]

Spot on Shed ..Business in Europe will want trade agreements with the 5th largest economy in the world, why would they walk away from that kind of money?...What will be of interest though, is how will the EU replace the contributions made by the UK, which are currently in the region of £55 million (sterling) per day??..

As for the Polish plumbers, well, we`ll just have to try to get by without them

[SWBKCB]

why should we suppose that the EU bloc would themselves act to jeopardise their already favourable position

Because if the UK leaves and there are few adverse consequences, that might give others ideas?

All that we really know is that nobody knows what will happen. Not a great environment to be doing business in.

If we do leave, there will have to be an awful lot done in a very short period of time - who will do it, where will aviation be in the list of things to be done and what will the quality of the decision making be like?

Anyway, back to the impact on the aviation industry.

[LGS6753]

In the event of a Brexit, you can expect other countries to question their membership of the EU. There are currently serious campaigns for referenda in France and Holland, the Czech Republic has suggested it too will leave.
As a committed democrat, I can only hope that as many countries as possible leave this undemocratic monster sooner rather than later.
Oh, and if we stay, we will be bailing Greece (and perhaps Italy) out again in 2017.

[Global_Global]

Business in Europe will want trade agreements with the 5th largest economy in the world

Boys, boys what is this 5th mainly consist off: financial, IT and software services so go back to my answer B sub 1....

Guess what will happen: where do you think Nissan would build their next factory? My guess is either north of the border of England as the Scotts will be in. Where do you think that DHL would build their new hub? Not in EMA that is for sure. The French but mainly the Germans will ensure that all the main financials will move over.. So if you want a reason to stay and negotiate: it is the economy stupid!

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Global_Global ...

You're really missing something here. The Germans in particular have been working very hard to attract the financials from (current EU partner / buddy) City of London to Frankfurt as it is. The robust competitive environment which you warn us against is already well-established ... Frankfurt competes ruthlessly for London-based financial business right now. For "ensure that all the financials move over", read "more of the same." They've tried to foist all sorts of damaging taxes and regulations on the City in their own interests. What you're really talking about is: "No change there, then!"

Meanwhile, DHL has already invested heavily in establishing a large and mature hub at EMA. It is thriving, and the busy UK overnight courier business isn't going away, BREXIT or no. The likelihood of DHL abandoning operations in the UK is slim to zero. And it is highly unlikely that they would move their UK hub from EMA which offers significant logistical advantages. As for Nissan, they're delighted with their Sunderland operation. Are they planning a new factory anyway? Perhaps you are being seduced by arguments that Britain's car manufacturing industry will migrate overseas ... this is one of the leading scare-stories promoted by those lobbying to remain inside the EU. But don't forget ... the desires of big business are just one issue in this debate (we know that major multinationals lobby to remain within the EU ... it suits them very well). But the voters are concerned by other wider issues too: democratic accountability, gross abuse of power, routinely ignoring the expressed wishes of the electorate, federalism, cost of membership, the road to Euro currency membership, possible future Schengen membership / security implications, bailouts, waste and much more. It is not just about what a self-interested cabal of corporate CEO's prefer.

Note what I said earlier: the British public is broadly approving of the Single European Market. The "Common Market" is the entity we originally signed up for. "Undemocratic Federal Superstate" is what we're wary about. There is no desire by the British to tear up the principles of free trade, and it is certainly not in the interests of our EU partners to do so. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, trading relationships are unlikely to change beyond the margins. The current arrangements are not a source of contention on either side. There is no wish to throw out EU-registered carriers from UK airports ... the politicians (barring afew "green" eco-extremists) want more air service connectivity at our airports, not less.

When the dust has settled, we will wonder what all the fuss was about.

[Ametyst1]

Quite Racedo, the Poles etc do the jobs the British don't want to, or deign to do. Interestingly, Sir Start Rose said recently to a Parliamentary committee that wages would rise if the UK left the UK and businesses were unable to employ cheaper East/Central European labour.

It seems that the EU is more about what businesses and politicians want and sod the peasants! I guess Google, Starbucks and Amazon etc may be concerned that they will have to pay proper tax values to HMRC.

My one concern about leaving the EU is that we could get Boris Island, aaaaaggggggbhhhhhh!

[LGS6753]

Global_Global:

Business in Europe will want trade agreements with the 5th largest economy in the world
Boys, boys what is this 5th mainly consist off: financial, IT and software services so go back to my answer

As the 5th largest economy in the world we suck in imports as though they are going out of fashion - BMWs, Mercedes, VW, French cheeses, wines and dairy products, Swedish furniture, etc.

That is why the EU would be foolish to try and play hardball - they need us more than we need them.

Amethyst:

Stuart Rose rather foolishly (as a Remainian) said that British wages would increase on Brexit. He's right, but that would mean better incomes, lower unemployment, a larger tax take, higher productivity and ultimately more
investment. What's not to like?

[ATNotts]

As the 5th largest economy in the world we suck in imports as though they are going out of fashion - BMWs, Mercedes, VW, French cheeses, wines and dairy products, Swedish furniture, etc.

That is why the EU would be foolish to try and play hardball - they need us more than we need them.

Amethyst:

Stuart Rose rather foolishly (as a Remainian) said that British wages would increase on Brexit. He's right, but that would mean better incomes, lower unemployment, a larger tax take, higher productivity and ultimately more
investment. What's not to like?

I think it's time for this thread to be moved to JB. But before it does...

Indeed the UK does suck in imports from across the EU, largely because the UK makes b****r all these days, so we don't buy the stuff because we want ti, be buy it because we need it. Therefore, contrary to these assertions that the EU would have to make a deal with UK, the reverse is true - the UK needs a deal with the EU - more than they need it with us!

Back to aviation, and again, Ryanair (a non UK business) would be badly affected by Brexit, with so much of their business being UK based, but also EZY may find life hard, operating as they do within EU, between France and Germany and other EU countries. Similarly, but to a much lesser extent FlyBe and bmi Regional. I've got a feeling that carriers such as Transavia, Air Berlin and Wizz would be lobbying their respective governments pretty hard for a tough deal with UK to allow our (much more advanced) aviation industry unfettered access to the intra EU market - without signing up to the EEA, with all that that entails.

Sorry folks, Brexit would be a gigantic leap into the dark that would could, adversely effect your jobs - think carefully before placing your cross!

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

the UK makes b****r all these days

The UK manufacturing sector is actually ranked 11th globally by 2014 stats and employs 2.6M people. That number rises if you include associated workers in roles such as security, buildings services and cleaning which are now accounted for in the service sector for statistical purposes. Western manufacturing is far less labour-intensive than it was 50 years ago, but that is due to the decline of heavy industry and the growth of high-tech applications. Measured by trade value, the UK is still a significant player.

contrary to these assertions that the EU would have to make a deal with UK, the reverse is true - the UK needs a deal with the EU - more than they need it with us!

The stats don't support your assertion. In 2014, the UK was the ninth largest exporter globally, but the fifth largest importer - and the lion's share of that comes from our EU partners. The 2014 UK deficit in manufactured trade was GBP82Bn, with the EU a major beneficiary. Why exactly would the EU put this at risk when there is no pressure for a trade war from the UK perspective?

Ryanair (a non UK business) would be badly affected by Brexit

EZY may find life hard, operating as they do within EU

Your contention regarding the effect on carriers has no basis in fact. The UK has no intention of scrubbing current aviation agreements with the EU which work well for all parties. There is zero appetite from either side to disrupt the present successful arrangement. And even if there were, switching operations to an AOC in a different nation-state would be no problem for international carriers such as these. Whether BREXIT happens or not there will be no discernible change to the way our [airline] business operates.

Sorry folks, Brexit would be a gigantic leap into the dark that would could, adversely effect your jobs - think carefully before placing your cross!

Emotional scaremongering with no basis in fact. But I do promise to think carefully before placing my cross!

[Heathrow Harry]

"That is why the EU would be foolish to try and play hardball - they need us more than we need them."

For many EU countries we only take 5% of their exports - only Ireland has a seriously large export percentage to the UK. For some its less than 1%

We don't have the fabulous negotiating position the OUTS think I'm afraid

[LGS6753]

H Harry,

Do you think the German automotive industry would allow the German government to do a deal that inhibits their access to their single largest export market?

For the record, I don't.

This thread is becoming more of a candidate for Jet Blast by the day....

[ATNotts]

H Harry,

Do you think the German automotive industry would allow the German government to do a deal that inhibits their access to their single largest export market?

For the record, I don't.

This thread is becoming more of a candidate for Jet Blast by the day....

How many times does this need to be said...the UK's requirement for imports, including those from our largest trading partner means that the EU could, and I fear, would play hardball with UK. Remember, if 60 million idiots chose to leave the EU, there are still 400 million left to do trade with, uninhibited and they absolutely wouldn't lose their UK market, even if the UK paid hardball with them, as the UK consumer wants their products.

Mods. Please consign this thread to JB - or delete all these non-aviation related posts (including this one).

[kaikohe76]

Upon Brexit folks, the UK surely will be in a much better overall position. For the first time in many years, the UK will rightly be able to put it'self first & again be in control of it's own affairs & destiny. There is a whole big world out there apart from Europe, but the EU brigade tend to forget that.

[KyleRB]

If we vote to remove ourselves from the EU, my bet is we will still have many of the problems we blame on Europe and a few new economic ones as well! For sure Europe needs massive reforming and downsizing in Brussels but the principles are sound IMHO.

Let's face it, many millions of people don't really understand the issues and will simply vote through fear and prejudice!

[ATNotts]

Let's face it, many millions of people don't really understand the issues and will simply vote through fear and prejudice!

That, my friend, is one of the most succinct comments I have read.

Hopefully, in the next 12 weeks, the level of public engagement in this, the most important decision they will have to make is raised significantly, and the facts aired and tested properly - on both sides.

Some of the stupid claims made by some on my side of the argument beggar belief, as do many of those on the other side. It's a poor advert for referenda, unlike, I believe the Scottish event which seemed, viewed from south of the border, to have been a much more engaging debate.

[mustrum_ridcully]

"You cannot reason people out of a position that they did not reason themselves into." - Ben Goldacre, Bad Science. Despite the quote being about scientific matters it describes the EU debate very well.

[skyhawk1]

will duty free shopping be back at airports etc if we do leave the EU?