Brexit and the 5th?
 

What would the situation be for the likes of easyJet and Ryan Air if Brexit were to happen bearing in mind the 5th Freedom as defined by the Chicago Convention?

Or do I mean Cabotage (assuming Europe for these purposes is one country)?

Surely Ryanair is an Irish airline and I don't think Ireland is planning to leave the EU or have I missed something?

I believe you mean cabotage. Fifth freedom is for picking up/dropping off passengers along a route which starts or ends in the resident country. Cabotage is internal services in a country.

In Brexit, assuming no-one negotiates cabotage rights, Ryanair, as a non-UK airline, would not be able to do domestic UK services, but as a EU airline would be able to do any EU-UK service, i believe. Easyjet, as a UK airline, would be able to do internal UK and UK-EU services, but not EU-EU services.

Assuming neither company sets up specific subsidiaries to get around the specific limitations. Which i guess would be quite likely in fact.

But they will want to fly from the UK into Europe, which I guess will still be OK?

Assuming they negotiate bilaterals as to WHERE they fly. Not everyone allows a foreign airline to serve any old random destination in their country. It would be a truly "international" flight, so there'd likely be visa/customs/immigration facility issues. In addition to whatever political fallout would have people in a non cooperative mode.

Could put a spanner in the works for the Norwegian lot!

Nothing will happen. The various governments will agree on keeping the existing arrangements as otherwise it will be too complicated and too many companies will lose out, with their staff suffering too; there is too much tax revenue involved between corporation and staff income taxes to chance individual new negotiations with all the other issues to be dealt with.

Likewise, I'm sure there will be agreement to ensure existing staff at all EU and UK operators are given rights to stay and work in the country they are presently base in as long as they are employed by that company, though those rights would possibly be lost if they leave the company.

Dead right Shuffler! There's no way the EU would want any more upset on top of the euro crisis and the immigration crisis, so business as usual will be the thing.

Don't Easyjet already have a Swiss subsidiary for similar reasons?

As for Ryanair, various agreements on trade, business etc between Ireland and the UK pre date the EEC or EU. One has never needed a passport to travel between the 2 countries, nor has there evere been full border checkpoints between The Republic and Northern Ireland. This may change if the UK leaves the EU however, as one of the main reasons to leave is more control of immigration. If the UK leaves the EU then EU citizens can travel freely to Ireland and hop across the border. Introducing a full border would give Republican extremists an excuse to start bombing again sadly.

"Brexit" could allow the UK to have a temporary answer to the South East Airport capacity problem. The UK could renegotiate air services agreements and dictate that Airlines fly to Gatwick or Stansted rather than Heathrow.

A lot of the Air Services Agreements would have to be re-negotiated as a lot a presently EU agreements, for example EU-US. This would have to become a UK -US agreement and so on.

The UK could then re-introduce traffic distribution rules to distribute traffic around the London airports. The UK government cannot do this now as it would fall fowl of the EU Open Skies policy and would lead to several court cases with various Airlines.

All been tried before in the 1980's - it didn't work then and it wouldn't work now. BA moved all its Canada, Spain and various other routes from Heathrow to Gatwick. The reciprocal airlines simply stayed put at LHR and made a killing until BA had no choice but to move back again. Any move to oust foreign carriers from LHR could be expected to be met with reciprocal action or trade sanctions against UK carriers at the other end of the route.

Governments getting involved (interfering) in what should be airline business decisions rarely turns out well.

The current supply versus demand for LHR slots already ensures that new airlines or extra frequencies have to go to other airports - unless the airline concerned has a bottomless pit of money to buy the slots it wants at LHR from another airline (usually its an airline going through hard times and selling off the family silver !). Hardly fair on the smaller guys - but that's the way it is in the absence of LHR R3.

I think Wizz Air will be hardest hit, if East Europeans lose the automatic right to work in the UK

The UK will, on Brexit, need to be an open outward-looking trading nation. As such, the current open skies arrangements will be retained. I agree that the greatest impact, in due course, will be on WZZ whose market will shrink as the right to settle by EU citizens will cease.

Barnstable - WZZ will just cut the number of flights from CE Europe to the UK if they have to. They have no operating bases in the UK to the best of my knowledge, so the planes will be put on to different/new destinations (like Dublin, Cork, Shannon).

If they do cut UK routes then it's more likely any impact will be felt at the smaller UK airports it serves far more than at the airline.

Wizz will not be hit that hard as just look at Norway and Switzerland, they have to allow movement of people to be part of the single market. Anybody who thinks the UK will be any different are mistaken. There is the unlikely case where the UK won't sign up.

Not so such FR domestics would be impacted and they are also a UK registered company so Im sure they could also pick up AOC quickly.

The UK will no longer exist soon after if England vote to leave!

anyone who says "things will continue as usual " is wrong

if we leave then NEW argreements have to put in place - the old ones are based on the fact we're in the EU and apply to all countries.

When we're out any new agreement will have to be ratified by ALL those still in - and I can see a few people holding a teensy-weensy grudge against the UK for putting them through this ridiculous fandango

Plus the likes of Air France & Alitalia will be looking to knock back every UK LCO........

The whole idea of the various leave campaigns, rightly or wrongly, is that should they be successful in getting the UK to exit the EU then they will not allow free movement of EU citizens.

The whole point of this referendum is that the anti-EU brigade want to stop the Poles, Slovaks, Latvians, Romanians et al from having free movement to travel, work or reside in the UK.

Wait until they start finding that minimum wage jobs aren't being filled because the East Europeans decide to go elsewhere.

On Easter Saturday Poles have items which they will eat on Easter Sunday blessed in church, we have adopted this tradition as have quite a few friends in the church we go to. Asking how Brexit could affect them in stopping future Polish migrants one laughed and said his employer pays above Min Wage and has 20 vacancies he cannot fill since New Year. 50% of staff are Eastern European.

Asked if couldn't come to UK where could relatives go and Germany was easy option but added France and Spain as well.

No doubt UK with 50% no EU immigration will just go to its old Empire countrys like India etc

Logohu

In 1980s BA only moved there Iberian peninsula routes from LHR to LGW none of there Canadian routes moved, the government at the time wanted IBERIA, TAP and Air Canada to move there entire ops to LHR but they declined to do so that's why only BA did, because of the fact that Air Canada refused to move BA decided that it was in their interest to keep their Canadian routes at LHR.