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ROUTE SPECULATION

Old 30th Mar 2016, 15:03
  #141 (permalink)  
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It has been a great 2 years for Manchester, after securing many long-haul routes including Hong Kong, Beijing and most recently San Francisco & Boston. Also Shanghai has been on the cards for a while. What long-haul route is next for Manchester? Any suggestions?
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Old 30th Mar 2016, 15:22
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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South Africa seems to be a notable gap in the network, I expect Thomas Cook will give Cape Town a go at some point if Gatwick works for them.
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Old 30th Mar 2016, 16:25
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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I think it is more about consolidation of existing routes (e.g. Multiple carriers, increased frequency) than new routes such that when the next downturn comes they are robust enough to withstand it.

If I had to put my neck on the block, South Africa and the Indian Sub-continent seem to be the most obvious missing long haul routes. Other possibilities include Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok but I doubt we will see these any time soon.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 16:30
  #144 (permalink)  
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I was thinking of how it would be quite fitting for Vueling to open up a base at Gatwick. They could compete with easyJet on many Spanish and Italian route, but also on important business routes to cities. They could also work in conjunction with British Airways' operation out of LGW and could could code-share with BA meaning flights and holidays could also be booked via BA's website. I think even if they did not decide to set up base operation, they could still offer a lot more flights from their current bases to Gatwick.

Here are just some of the routes I think Vueling could operate out of Gatwick:

LGW-CDG (flights launching very soon, could potentially add an early morning rotation for business traffic)
LGW-BRU (easyJet previous operation shows there is demand, easyJet offered poor timings to do with business traffic, Vueling could make this work with good timings for business traffic)
LGW-AGP (could complement British Airways' service by adding a mid-afternoon rotation out of Gatwick)
LGW-ALC (could complement British Airways' service)
LGW-LPA (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA,)
LGW-MAH (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA)
LGW-MXP (only served by EZY, 500,000+ passengers annually, code-shared with BA)
LGW-PMI (capture leisure traffic, code-shared through BA)
LGW-DME (easyJet showed from previously operating that there was demand, even when the flights were reduced to one daily due to the problems with Russia, flights were still full and fares were quite steep)
LGW-LCG (Vueling to end the LCG-LHR to make a daily slot available at Heathrow for other BA/IB/EI flights and could switch to LGW)
What other routes could there be and what are your thoughts on this?

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Old 21st Apr 2016, 21:38
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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Manchester - Heathrow sees something in the region of 75% of the users making a connection at LHR, the remaining 25% are either passengers making separate connections of their own or point to point, hence I'd suggest a Gatwick route would be a challenge for this reason and those stated in relation to the trains etc.
Point to point pax would be (at the LHR end) residents of the Thames Valley from Middlesex to Oxfordshire who don't want a long tedious journey up to London before taking the fast train to Manchester.

Probably also works in reverse with residents of Cheshire and parts of staffordshire, etc. (?).



However, only a minority of traffic is heading for city centres nowadays, and only a fraction of that is centre-to-centre. London/SE England is big enough to be separate markets in separate areas. If you live in say Maidstone and have a business meeting in Northwich, try doing that by train.
Good point!

The Manchester trains eliminated their stop at Watford, and that cut out the whole west-of-London market from them.
Yes, this is a big pain in the arse for many!
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Old 27th Apr 2016, 20:49
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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MAN

Some speculation from MAN:

The VS aircraft at MAN next summer are apparently going to be more intensively utilised. In practice, it is speculated that this means a Detroit service will start.

Hainan are not yet done. They want to go daily at MAN - PEK from 1 January 2017 and also want to introduce a service to Xi'an.

China Southern are interested in a 3x weekly service to MAN from Guangzhou using the B788. Start rumoured to be summer 2017.

Air China have had issues with slots at Shanghai, but are due to start in October. Like Hainan, they too want to go daily sooner rather than later.

Thomas Cook have not yet given up on west coast USA. Their strategy is supposedly to go daily to the west coast (e.g. 3x San Francisco 4x Los Angeles) which together with their nearl daily service to Vegas gives a good coverage of a popular region.

Singapore Airlines current plan is to run the A350 to MAN nonstop 4x weekly, with the remaining 3x days covered with the existing Munich tag on. Eventually, they want to go daily non stop as in the early 2000s.

Cathay Pacific remain keen to increase to daily, as and when aircraft and crew let them. They essentially prioritised a slot grab at Gatwick ahead of 8x weekly MAN. Eventually, MAN stands to gain from the indecision of London airport expansion, but not in this occasion.

Emirates and Etihad have had very high loads for a long time, and despite recent increases in capacity. Something seems likely to give. Emirates also priorities a Gatwick slot over Manchester. Look out for that 4th daily flight soon enough.

American Airlines are keen to run between Dallas and MAN. No details.

That's about it. Plenty in there. Still keeping eyes open for JAL, ANA, Thai and the myriad of other long term targets. Even BA(!)
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Old 28th Apr 2016, 21:22
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MAN
Some speculation from MAN:

The VS aircraft at MAN next summer are apparently going to be more intensively utilised. In practice, it is speculated that this means a Detroit service will start.

Hainan are not yet done. They want to go daily at MAN - PEK from 1 January 2017 and also want to introduce a service to Xi'an.

China Southern are interested in a 3x weekly service to MAN from Guangzhou using the B788. Start rumoured to be summer 2017.

Air China have had issues with slots at Shanghai, but are due to start in October. Like Hainan, they too want to go daily sooner rather than later.

Thomas Cook have not yet given up on west coast USA. Their strategy is supposedly to go daily to the west coast (e.g. 3x San Francisco 4x Los Angeles) which together with their nearl daily service to Vegas gives a good coverage of a popular region.

Singapore Airlines current plan is to run the A350 to MAN nonstop 4x weekly, with the remaining 3x days covered with the existing Munich tag on. Eventually, they want to go daily non stop as in the early 2000s.

Cathay Pacific remain keen to increase to daily, as and when aircraft and crew let them. They essentially prioritised a slot grab at Gatwick ahead of 8x weekly MAN. Eventually, MAN stands to gain from the indecision of London airport expansion, but not in this occasion.

Emirates and Etihad have had very high loads for a long time, and despite recent increases in capacity. Something seems likely to give. Emirates also priorities a Gatwick slot over Manchester. Look out for that 4th daily flight soon enough.

American Airlines are keen to run between Dallas and MAN. No details.

That's about it. Plenty in there. Still keeping eyes open for JAL, ANA, Thai and the myriad of other long term targets. Even BA(!)
All good for Ringway, and not before time! Good to see several new China routes, not holding my breath for any India routes though. Think that SQ will go nonstop sooner rather than later, especially as CX plans to go daily soon. Keep up the good work

Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 29th Apr 2016 at 22:13.
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Old 28th Apr 2016, 23:02
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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It is in part related to the restrictions in capacity in the South East. New or extended routes cannot get into LHR or LGW look at MAN and BHX.

Clearly some demand exists for LHR outside of the south east it is, in part, simply reallocating services in a more geographically appropriate way.

Agree with SQ. If CX go daily and the likes of Emirates and Etihad keep increasing frequency, not to mention all of the Chinese carriers, they need to change something. Offering a daily service non stop on a brand new aircraft seems like a very strong response.
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Old 16th May 2016, 20:10
  #149 (permalink)  
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With British Airways' adding routes like Billund, Inverness & Krakow in recent months, what other short/medium haul routes from Heathrow are they still missing that would be viable to operate, keeping in mind the routes they operate out of Gatwick already?
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Old 16th May 2016, 22:44
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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Avgeek

Some possibilities to add to your BA ex LHR list some already having been served.

Belgrade, Dresden, Granada, Jersey, Nantes, Perpignan, Strasbourg, Zaragoza.
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Old 18th May 2016, 11:28
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How does LGW-JER perform? Could the route move to LHR and do without the orange tailed competition?
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Old 18th May 2016, 19:25
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BA LHR-SCL: no longer speculation, starts next year.
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Old 19th May 2016, 07:19
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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Leeds-Berlin no longer speculation after Yesterday's announcement from Jet2.
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Old 17th Jun 2016, 23:38
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AvGeek1 View Post
I was thinking about some potential future European Emirates routes that could realistically be operated in the future. I came up with a few ideas;

Dubai - Valencia
Dubai - Malaga
Dubai - Edinburgh
Dubai - Paris (Orly)
Dubai - Helsinki

As anyone else got any suggestions and may I remind you to keep them realistic and viable suggestions, not just your wish lists!

Also are there any other routes outside of Europe that could be operated in the future?
In Spanish....

Emirates plans to fly to Valencia.

http://www.expansion.com/valencia/2016/06/17/57644648268e3ed8138b45ec.html
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Old 18th Jun 2016, 09:21
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sunday8pm View Post
How does LGW-JER perform? Could the route move to LHR and do without the orange tailed competition?
I don't have figures but the Gatwick- Jersey route is always very well patronized (for both BAW & EZY). Heathrow was always a traditional route & would do well for BAW. There is certainly a big demand for it within the island. Although LGW is expanding its routes worldwide, islanders would very much appreciate the ability to connect with many more (& more frequent) long distance routes from LHR. There is also a very great demand for LHR within the business community - especially the finance industry.
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Old 18th Jun 2016, 11:07
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Islanders? Gibraltar is connected to mainland Spain, its a peninsula!
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Old 18th Jun 2016, 11:28
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Originally Posted by AerRyan View Post
Islanders? Gibraltar is connected to mainland Spain, its a peninsula!
The island being discussed is Jersey.
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Old 18th Jun 2016, 11:42
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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JER

I wonder if the current LGW BA schedule could be maintained and also add say twice daily LHR return to cater for connections?

Certainly BA now offer a wider range ex LGW for JER with the addition of JFK which with properly constructed tickets will allow onward US connections without the need to transfer to LHR by road.

Also LGW is soon to get CX which would also allow decent ex JER eastbound connections.


cs
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Old 18th Jun 2016, 15:21
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You are correct to question the ability of BAW to operate from both LGW & LHR to JER. I feel that a doable frequency would be 3/4 services from each. LGW does offer more connections now - but nowhere near as many as from LHR .Certainly as far as BAW are concerned. Another suggestion would be for BAW to concentrate on LHR-JER with 5/6 flights per day, & leave the LGW-JER service to EZY. It would then be possible to connect with all the flights we could possibly want to connect with from both airports.
None of this is likely to happen until the 3rd. runway at LHR.
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Old 20th Jun 2016, 17:22
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You are correct to question the ability of BAW to operate from both LGW & LHR to JER. I feel that a doable frequency would be 3/4 services from each. LGW does offer more connections now - but nowhere near as many as from LHR .Certainly as far as BAW are concerned. Another suggestion would be for BAW to concentrate on LHR-JER with 5/6 flights per day, & leave the LGW-JER service to EZY. It would then be possible to connect with all the flights we could possibly want to connect with from both airports.
None of this is likely to happen until the 3rd. runway at LHR.
With a third rwy, U2 could be on the LHR-JER route as well.
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