UK aviation trends

[NorthSouth]

I've just done a little exercise with the CAA stats on aircraft movements 2004-2014.

I looked at where each airport was in 2014 compared to its peak year for aircraft movements in the previous ten years. Out of 60 reporting airports that have been active throughout that period, only two - Aberdeen and Sumburgh - had more movements in 2014 than in their peak year.

The rest have a long way to go to get back to their peak activity level. At those 58 airports the mean reduction from peak year to 2014 was 30%.

Now, you can point to numerous things to put these figures in context:
- GA movements pushed out of larger airports to non-reporting airports
- some trend towards larger commercial aircraft means less movements doesn't necessarily mean less commercial success
but the decline can also be seen at GA-only or mainly GA airfields like Biggin, Cambridge, Carlisle, Shoreham.

Quite sobering.

[nigel osborne]

Northsouth.

Think there is a pretty big trend towards larger aircraft and a bigger one towards more seats over the last 15 years or so .

Not difficult to see why ,the more you can pack in the more money you will make.

Recently both BA and LH to name just 2 are reducing legroom to get more in their short haul planes. Even though the slim line Recardo seats are claimed to give more pitch as base .

All about CASM.

Whilst the shorter haul planes are packing more in, the long haul are changing too, with many airlines squeezing another seat across to enable the 1st or business class to get more room up front.

There is also a newer trend towards premium economy.


Boeing are talking about scooping more out of the side walls of the planned 777-8/9X to make the increasingly( with airlines) popular 10 abreast more comfy.

Time will tell whether infact they can get enough to go an extra seat and whether Airbus will raise the floor of the A380 to go 11 abreast.

Think if airlines could get away with it they would try and shove 2 on each seat..lol...joking


Nigel

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by NorthSouth

Out of 60 reporting airports that have been active throughout that period, only two - Aberdeen and Sumburgh - had more movements in 2014 than in their peak year.

The rest have a long way to go to get back to their peak activity level.

I suspect Heathrow might beg to differ.

Annual ATMs over the last 10 years have only varied by around six percent, so that's hardly "a long way to go to get back to peak activity level".

[NorthSouth]

Well, I meant "the rest" collectively. There's substantial variation within that group, and Heathrow, at 1.8% below peak, is of course at the top of the list. Gatwick is second at -2.47%. But in a way that just illustrates my point. We all know Gatwick and Heathrow are (nearly ) bursting at the seams. But the vast majority of airports outside London have loads of capacity and are showing little signs of getting back to where they were.

Interestingly, for many of those airports the decline began well before the start of the financial downturn in 2007-8.

[SWBKCB]

If you look at the regional airports, there is also a trend to smaller a/c from some of the bigger players, particularly with the decline of the 757 - BA, TOM, TCX, MON, LS have all replaced them with smaller aircraft

[good egg]

The "global recession" may have had a lot to do with it too. Some airports dipped by around a 1/3 in terms of movements in 2009/2010 compared to 2008 figures.

So lots of factors, including those mentioned above, have affected airports. What is your point?

[silverknapper]

Good egg has hit it on the head. Don't overthink it I suspect is the answer. We're just emerging from a hard recession.

[NorthSouth]

Well, that's the assumption isn't it - that it's all because of the recession. But the figures show that for half of those 58, the decline set in from 2004/2005/2006, before the recession hit.

I think what we're seeing is a centralisation of activity on a few major airports and a massive move away from diversity in the types of activity, towards almost exclusively passenger air transport.

[ATNotts]

Well, that's the assumption isn't it - that it's all because of the recession. But the figures show that for half of those 58, the decline set in from 2004/2005/2006, before the recession hit.

Very true - when the lo-co phenomenon started there was a rush to open bases at small airports, where often the airport operators gave sweeteners to entice the operators in. After a time, when the sweeteners ran out, the airlines discovered that the yield simply wasn't there, and retrenchment began, so places like Coventry, Teesside, Doncaster, Blackpool, Newquay; and most recently Prestwick, fell out of favour.

Even larger airports, such as BHX which hit bad times in the recessionary years is only now returning figures near to their peak - and that using larger equipment, so I guess (though I haven't checked) actual ATMs may still be below their peak.

[PAXboy]

ATNotts details the process. 'Capitalism' runs a standard cycle:

1. Large corporates have an entrenched postion and command the prices
2. A startup arrives or govt changes laws
3. Multiple startups happen
4. One or two leading companies emerge
5. Corporates respond
6. Late startups join the throng often from/by Corporates
7. Takeovers start
8. Steady state for a while - unless a recession happens
9. More takeovers as we enter first consolidation phase
10. One or two leading companies are established
11. Some Corporates now fail or have to merge
12. Consolidation continues - in this case both by carriers and airports at all levels of size
13. The leading companies may, or may not merge
14. The leading company/ies become corporate
15. Loop back to #1

You can add a recession in at any stage and it will accelerate the sequence by taking out both large and small companies. In my experience, this happens in almost all fields of commercial life.

In the sequence, some will have made money and others lost it. Some will have gained jobs and others lost them. At every step of the way, the ones who ar emaking money will claim that it's all fabulous and a great idea for the end user.