Iceland volcano eruption risk level raised for aviation
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The sulphur spread animation didn't show the cloud that went over UK/Ireland over the last few days.
The peaks were most impressive at Ennis and Dublin, but even the North Kensington monitor shot up between 9pm and 11pm on Sunday night reaching an unusual 31ug/m3 at 9.45.
There seem to be hints that an eruption under the glacier (ash ?) may be imminent.
The peaks were most impressive at Ennis and Dublin, but even the North Kensington monitor shot up between 9pm and 11pm on Sunday night reaching an unusual 31ug/m3 at 9.45.
There seem to be hints that an eruption under the glacier (ash ?) may be imminent.
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it depends who you look at their opinion.
The government sources are being none committal and are protecting the population as much as the can from themselves but the gas seems to be getting a bit much in some areas.
The gifted amateurs are commenting on the huge dropping of the caldera and there seems to be mixed ideas what this means as every time there is a drop off in activity it drops and starts again. They are say the top mass of the caldera maybe so soft now it doesn't create quakes when it moves.
The one they seem to be most worried about is the main caldera going with 850m of ice on the top of it. And opinions vary between 60%-95% if its going to go.
Just now they are reporting there maybe a small eruption under the glacier but there has been no flood water yet.
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
Just been updated, he seems to be a gifted keen amateur and has been pretty spot on so far.
The government sources are being none committal and are protecting the population as much as the can from themselves but the gas seems to be getting a bit much in some areas.
The gifted amateurs are commenting on the huge dropping of the caldera and there seems to be mixed ideas what this means as every time there is a drop off in activity it drops and starts again. They are say the top mass of the caldera maybe so soft now it doesn't create quakes when it moves.
The one they seem to be most worried about is the main caldera going with 850m of ice on the top of it. And opinions vary between 60%-95% if its going to go.
Just now they are reporting there maybe a small eruption under the glacier but there has been no flood water yet.
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
Just been updated, he seems to be a gifted keen amateur and has been pretty spot on so far.
Last edited by mad_jock; 9th Sep 2014 at 09:12.
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Check that link again. It seems like things are getting serious again with 1 meter drops in the caldera daily.
Might be air closure time again if the winds in the wrong direction. BUt it could be tomorrow or in a months time.
Might be air closure time again if the winds in the wrong direction. BUt it could be tomorrow or in a months time.
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Noticed MET1 on Wednesday over N.Ireland doing several sweeps at FL180 from Fermanagh right up over the north coast.
Anyone know if it was Volcano related?
Anyone know if it was Volcano related?
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RÚV
Well the Icelandic media have started propagating emergency LW frequency's for an emergency. Looks like they are gearing up for a big one.
The 850m thick ice cap over the caldera is now showing fissures.
Well the Icelandic media have started propagating emergency LW frequency's for an emergency. Looks like they are gearing up for a big one.
The 850m thick ice cap over the caldera is now showing fissures.
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Mad Jock,
There has been a significant drop in the number of earthquakes last few days and their have been none over Mag 4 for a day now.
Could it be that the scientists first likely scenerio has proved to be right, that it is about to stop ?.
However this volcano has defied everyone so far and understanding of volcanoes has had the rule book ripped up, doing things never observed before.
So it may still have a sting in the tail left over the coming weeks.
Nigel
There has been a significant drop in the number of earthquakes last few days and their have been none over Mag 4 for a day now.
Could it be that the scientists first likely scenerio has proved to be right, that it is about to stop ?.
However this volcano has defied everyone so far and understanding of volcanoes has had the rule book ripped up, doing things never observed before.
So it may still have a sting in the tail left over the coming weeks.
Nigel
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Nigel there was a 4.9 one 12 hours ago in the Caldera.
The stuff I have been reading says the they reckon there is that much movement now inside the crater over 21 meters subsidence that the ground is that soft that it doesn't create shakes anymore. And its dropping at 08. to 1m per day.
The volcano is inflating, the amount of magma coming out of the eruptions so far is less than they reckon is going into it.
850m worth of ICE on top of the thing is now showing cracks on the top because the bottom has dropped so much.
From what I have read is the ice is acting like a champagne cork and once the magma gets at the ice and melts it the reduction of the weight off the top will let it go pop.
http://www.ruv.is/frett/subsidence-b...eters-possible
The stuff I have been reading says the they reckon there is that much movement now inside the crater over 21 meters subsidence that the ground is that soft that it doesn't create shakes anymore. And its dropping at 08. to 1m per day.
The volcano is inflating, the amount of magma coming out of the eruptions so far is less than they reckon is going into it.
850m worth of ICE on top of the thing is now showing cracks on the top because the bottom has dropped so much.
From what I have read is the ice is acting like a champagne cork and once the magma gets at the ice and melts it the reduction of the weight off the top will let it go pop.
http://www.ruv.is/frett/subsidence-b...eters-possible
Last edited by mad_jock; 13th Sep 2014 at 20:33.
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Well I am currently on holiday on the right side of the Atlantic (in Canada), so anything that gets me out of my impending mix of late shifts next week will do nicely.
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if your on it seach on farcebook for "Institute of Earth Sciences"
It has some good stuff on it.
This page contains scientific data and results from the staff of the Institute of Earth Sciences and various collaborators. The data is posted timely to give maximum information on evaluation of an evolving natural catastrophe. Please respect copyright and authorship of the data.
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Just a quick explanation for those counting earthquakes - this is not a reliable indicator.
The caldera is dropping at a steady rate. When it encounters an obstruction around its periphery it will progressively add weight to it until it breaks. The magnitude and frequency of quakes is simply a measure of the size and number of obstructions.
The caldera is dropping at a steady rate. When it encounters an obstruction around its periphery it will progressively add weight to it until it breaks. The magnitude and frequency of quakes is simply a measure of the size and number of obstructions.
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After a few days of reduced activity things seem to be brewing up again around the main caldera.
Lots of +3 shakes with more than a few high 4's both shallow and deep.
I was reading as well the chemical composition has changed of the magma and it is now from 10k +down.
Lots of +3 shakes with more than a few high 4's both shallow and deep.
I was reading as well the chemical composition has changed of the magma and it is now from 10k +down.
Good news?
From jonfr.is Geology Blog today:
Is it going to create a flight chaos as happened with Eyjafjallajökull in 2010?
No, that is unlikely to happen. While disruptions should be expected once an eruption starts under the glacier that appears to be powerful enough to break trough the glacier. The volcano ash from Bárðarbunga volcano is going to be different, since the magma is basalt, it is going to explode on contact with water, creating volcano. No lava is not going to be erupting while water gets into the erupting craters. This also means that the volcano ash that forms is larger and heavier as result. That means it doesn’t stay as long up in the air and does not go long distances.
No, that is unlikely to happen. While disruptions should be expected once an eruption starts under the glacier that appears to be powerful enough to break trough the glacier. The volcano ash from Bárðarbunga volcano is going to be different, since the magma is basalt, it is going to explode on contact with water, creating volcano. No lava is not going to be erupting while water gets into the erupting craters. This also means that the volcano ash that forms is larger and heavier as result. That means it doesn’t stay as long up in the air and does not go long distances.
From the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (2013) regarding an effusive eruptions as is happening now (Not the future suggested caldera collapse of Bardarbunga)
3.35
The research and ongoing modelling have been used to estimate the expected modern-day impacts of a similar event. It is anticipated that an eruption of this scale and type could have significant public health impacts on the ground. Similarly, the aviation industry and aircraft passengers could be affected because at this height sulphur dioxide concentrations could be even greater than at the ground. However, a quantitative assessment is required to fully characterise the risks. Widespread airspace closures on a significantly bigger and more prolonged scale than those experienced in April 2010 could be expected due to the longevity of such an eruption.
3.35
The research and ongoing modelling have been used to estimate the expected modern-day impacts of a similar event. It is anticipated that an eruption of this scale and type could have significant public health impacts on the ground. Similarly, the aviation industry and aircraft passengers could be affected because at this height sulphur dioxide concentrations could be even greater than at the ground. However, a quantitative assessment is required to fully characterise the risks. Widespread airspace closures on a significantly bigger and more prolonged scale than those experienced in April 2010 could be expected due to the longevity of such an eruption.
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Health impact is one thing and airspace closure is another. Until there's no ash these are only quesses. How would sulphur affect passengers and the industry in short term? SO2 cloud reportedly reached Germany and Austria today (after reaching Norway and Sweden more than 2 weeks ago) and still noone gives a toss. Besides it is washed out quite easily by rain therefore higher contentration far from Iceland is quite unlikely.
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TBSC
If the caldera at Bardarbunga collapses as is now expected, then airspace closures could be the least of our worries, the Laki event was estimated to have led to 2m+ deaths world wide as a result of changed world wide weather patterns resulting in drought/famine in Asia and 3 very cold European winters
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That's the worst, worst case scenario!
The regular factsheets are worth reading:
The Civil Protection Scientific Advisory Board ? Civil Protection and Emergency Management
The regular factsheets are worth reading:
The Civil Protection Scientific Advisory Board ? Civil Protection and Emergency Management
